Showing posts with label the big picture. Show all posts
Showing posts with label the big picture. Show all posts

Tuesday, January 5, 2016

Michigan 41, Florida 7: Never in doubt

Only until something comes to an end can you take a breath and really understand the things that have happened.

In 2015, Michigan doubled its 2014 win total. It did that with a collection of running backs that cobbled together might make a solid feature back, a low-upside quarterback beaten out in Iowa City, a defense that lost what might have been its best frontline player before the season (next year we'll know for sure).

It did it with a cloud of doubt lingering above, like carbon monoxide, surreptitious and deadly. Maybe Michigan could never be again. Maybe it was all just a feverish mirage, the Michigan we once knew.

But against No. 19 Florida in Orlando on Saturday, Michigan put on its most dominant bowl-game performance we've seen in some time. Forget about all the losses, of course, and even the relatively "recent" bowl wins -- 2008 against Florida, 2003 against Florida, the trio of wins from 1999-2001 against Arkansas, Alabama and Auburn -- were relatively close. Michigan beat Arkansas by 14, but you'd have to go back to the 42-7 Hall of Fame Bowl win against N.C. State on Jan. 1, 1994, for a bowl win as dominant as this one. You'd have to go back to the 1991 thumping of Ole Miss by Desmond Howard and Co. for a bowl win against an SEC team as dominant as this one.

I suppose that a season marked by "it's been a while since" statements should conclude so fittingly.

Sans two runs by Treon Harris and Kelvin Taylor for 22 and 21 yards, respectively, Michigan held the Gators to 75 yards rushing on 25 carries (3 YPC). Harris completed just eight of 21 passes for 146 yards, one interception into the breadbasket of Jarrod Wilson and no touchdown passes.

Coming into this one, it was obvious that UF's offense wouldn't be able to consistently challenge Michigan's injury-affected defense, even after the confidence-shakers that were the Indiana and Ohio State games.

Even so, the Wolverines exceeded even the already lofty expectations many fans had. Florida players compared Michigan's front to Alabama's, which, in this world of Harbaugh, isn't as hyperbolic as one might think. The Wolverines held UF to fewer points than the Crimson Tide, and Harris, while not great by any means, was slightly more effective against Alabama. Sure, UF had issues on the offensive line, to say the least, but to even approach a reasonable juxtaposition with an Alabama defense is an accomplishment in and of itself.

What can you say about this game? Like a movie with a 90-plus percent rating on Rotten Tomatoes, it's a masterpiece that doesn't need much exposition.

The performances, the script, the cinematography, the score (that's always good): all perfect.

This wasn't about the SEC and the Big Ten -- this was about one team simply being leagues ahead of another. Michigan was better in every facet of the game, and it wasn't even close.

It's one thing to feel that way after a home win against BYU, or a road win at Penn State, or even a what-could've-been loss against eventual Big Ten champion and playoff participant Michigan State. It's another to so seamlessly transition from the regular season to the second season and then thoroughly handle a team that was elite on one side of the ball, at least, in its own state.

Now, comes the hard part.

Before moving on, after Alabama and Clemson have played to conclude the season in earnest, the realization that some players won't be coming back will set in.

When Michigan recruited Sione Houma, for example, I had high hopes for him, just like I do every recruit. I know they all can't be starters, or even contributors, but you root for every one of them to succeed.

And for three years, Houma was a little-noticed piece of the team. It wasn't until this year that he became a serious contributor -- if Michigan had not gotten Harbaugh, perhaps he wouldn't have had this chance at all.

When all was said and done, Houma carried it 43 times this season for 184 yards and five touchdowns, including a majestic 27-yard romp against Michigan State. The fullback dive isn't just some ironic dinosaur -- it is intent, personified. This year, it was Houma and Joe Kerridge.

Going forward, it'll be someone else.

If there's anything to take from this season, it's the revisiting of old things: the fullback dive, the line stacked like a two-story peanut butter and jelly sandwich, a defensive line shuffling incessantly and without mercy.

Of course, Houma's not the only one. If anyone predicted Rudock's revival, they are a clairvoyant, because early returns were not promising.

But take Mark Donnal's recent surge on the hardwood, multiply it by several orders of magnitude and degrees of difficulty, and you have something like what Rudock accomplished this season.

As you probably know, Rudock became just the second quarterback in Michigan history to throw for more than 3,000 yards in a single season. Fittingly, the first, John Navarre, was another guy who started somewhat unimpressively but rounded out into one of the best Michigan signal-callers on paper -- a Big Ten title to his name didn't hurt, either.

In fan lore, Rudock is a strange case. A grad transfer, we didn't really have that incubatory "getting to know you" phase, in which recruits become players become favorites. Even so, by his play alone and his demeanor on the field and after the game, assisted by Harbaugh's coaching, it's as if we saw a full career arc, accelerated. Early struggles, a light going on ... then?

Never in doubt.

---

Every final chapter requires an epilogue. This isn't the final chapter, but the first.

Michigan tallied its first 10-win season since 2011, and its ninth since Bo Schembechler coached his last season in 1989.

Something tells me double-digit win seasons will become the norm rather than something that happens, on average, about once every three years.

And this was in year 1, with somebody else's players, a supposed "stopgap" quarterback and an assemblage of skill players that didn't inspire confidence heading into the season.

But Jehu Chesson pulled his best 2006-Mario-Manningham-oh-wide-open impression against Florida, De'Veon Smith refuses to be tackled by defensive backs and the offensive line has transformed from severe liability to pretty good.

And most of these guys are back. Other than Rudock and Houma, Michigan loses Wilson, Desmond Morgan, Joe Bolden and James Ross, plus Royce-Jenkins Stone and, of course, Mario Ojemudia. Linebacker is a question mark, but Michigan returns a knockout defensive line, a talented secondary, and, you know, Jabrill Peppers, who can play everything from corner to long snapper (I mean, probably). Throw in a dash of talented young players and you're cooking once again, as Harbaugh continues to participate in the world's longest and most intense episode of football Chopped. 

The schedule next year is tough -- there'll be more than enough time to talk about that between now and as mentioned, the roster won't be without holes to start the year.

With that said, 2015 was an exercise in belief. Michigan might not make the playoffs next year -- really, who knows.

But whatever happens, there's no doubt that it'll have a chance. That's an assertion that can only emanate from one source: the very top.

Despite losing a nonconference game and two rivalry games -- both in excruciating fashion -- things are good.

This is only the beginning -- and what is more tantalizing, more captivating, more hopeful, than beginnings?

Sunday, November 29, 2015

Michigan 13, Ohio State 42: November blues

When you get a new coach, and the hype builds and reacts with the reality of the present situation -- the roster, the schedule, the standard transitional questions of scheme and philosophy-- you get a test tube bubbling with scenarios.

Best case scenarios, worst case scenarios and something in the middle.

Worst case? Michigan was looking at something similar to last year, or maybe a little better: 5-7, 6-6, the Harbaugh effect setting in, but not so much to offset a lack of talent at a number of spots.

Best case? Well, you have just about close to what happened. If not for a once-in-a-generation-style loss against rival Michigan State, the Wolverines would have been 10-1 heading into the Ohio State game, with their destiny in their own hands in terms of a conference title game berth.

Then, there's the vast in between.

When all was said and done, Michigan finished at the upper end of that in between, a 9-3 peppered with impressive blowouts, a pair of close losses (one on the road against a strong Utah team to open the season, the other at home in fairly ridiculous fashion).

Then, there was this past Saturday.

After opening as double-digit underdogs in the summer against the defending national champion Buckeyes, most places had this one even heading into Saturday. Michigan was fresh off a better-than-it-looked win at Penn State, and the Buckeyes were reeling after a listless loss at home against Michigan State.

But the Buckeye team that took the field was not the one that took the field the week before, in spirit and in execution.

The previously disgruntled Ezekel Elliot carried it 30 times for 214 yards and two scores (7.1 yards per carry), and J.T. Barrett only had to pass 15 times (and really, he didn't even have to pass that many times).

Closing a season in which Michigan adeptly hid its deficiencies against the majority of its schedule, it was unable to do so, particularly on the defensive side of the ball, in two of its last three games, when the Hoosiers and Buckeyes tore through the Michigan defense like it wasn't there.

Sure, injuries on the defensive line were an issue, but probably not so much as to send the Wolverines into an abyss of vastly less-effective run defense.

Unfortunately for Jim Harbaugh and Co., they just didn't have enough tricks to take on a refocused Buckeye team, eager to wash away the disappointment of blowing its chance for a Big Ten title game appearance (and thus, likely a chance at another college football playoff berth).

In retrospect, considering Michigan went into the half down just 14-10, the second half is all the more disappointing.

The Buckeyes had their way with the Michigan defense: think the Indiana game, only with more talent, and an actual defense to shut down the Wolverines' surging yet one-dimensional attack (and who would've thought that the effective dimension would be the passing game).

While the initial reaction is surely embarrassment, and a glum resignation, the reality is that Michigan has a long way to go.

The linebackers, who were deemed the weak link of the defense early on, were preyed upon by the Ohio State attack. They looked slow, indecisive, and not up to the task of Urban Meyer's talented, athletic attack, keyed by Elliott and Barrett's skillful running ability.

The good news? Michigan returns players like Bryan Mone on the defensive line next year. The bad? The linebackers are gone, save junior Blake Gedeon. If Michigan's defense is to avoid a reprisal of this performance, some answers will need to be found here, and fast.

Through the air, even Jourdan Lewis didn't have a great day, even though Barrett completed just nine of his 15 passes. But, such is life when facing talents like Michigan State's Aaron Burbridge and Ohio State's Michael Thomas.

Offensively, Michigan's inability to make hay on the ground finally sunk it in a big way. For all of his heroics earlier in the season, De'Veon Smith's (10 carries, 23 yards) lack of any sort of speed (or, more importantly, explosiveness) or ability to consistently hit the right hole continued to be an issue. The fact that Jabrill Peppers led the Wolverines in rushing (7 carries, 29 yards) is not ideal, nor is the fact that fullback Sione Houma was third in carries.

Meanwhile, Ty Isaac has disappeared since his fumble issues, and Derrick Green, as unfortunate as it is, does not seem to be a viable option.

Michigan did well enough in keeping Jake Rudock's jersey clean when he was in the pocket this season; that is, until Joey Bosa et al came to the Big House. On the ground, Michigan will have to hope that another year of seasoning will make this collection of linemen a little bit better in 2016.

But, it won't matter unless the Wolverines can find a tailback that can do the job. And right now, Michigan has a roster of ball carriers who each carry a significant flaw that seemingly prevents them from being a reliable feature back.

Ignoring the obvious vacuum at quarterback post-Rudock -- and Michigan does at least have options there, albeit unproven -- the running back position and the new slate of guys at linebacker will be the biggest question marks heading into next season, discounting the obvious of all-around improving of the skill and athleticism of the skill players on the outside.

In a world of one-game scenarios, it goes without saying that Saturday's blowout falls under the umbrella of worst-case. After a successful season, one would have thought that Michigan had put the days of blowout losses in The Game (e.g. 2008 and 2010) behind it.

Unfortunately, Saturday proved otherwise. If you don't have the players, you don't have the players, and no amount of coaching acumen or schematic chicanery can disguise that fact, particularly when met with the well-oiled machine Meyer has built in Columbus.

So, here we are: 9-3, with three losses to the best opponents on Michigan's schedule. The Wolverines beat who they were "supposed" to beat, and probably a couple others that might not have fallen in that category when the season started.

Overall, the 2015 season will be remembered as the year of transition, a strong first step toward better football and, Michigan fans hope, the beginning of a long and prosperous era on the gridiron in Ann Arbor.

Until those next steps can be taken, though, Michigan is left with the sour taste of Saturday -- of Elliott running through the line, of the Buckeyes not letting up late (which, for the record, I would not expect them to, nor would I necessarily advocate doing if the situations were reversed), of another rival's post-game celebration on the Big House turf.

The Wolverines will get a chance to notch a 10th win, potentially completing just its second double-digit win season since the end of the Lloyd Carr era. That is something worth applauding for now, as Michigan gets back on its feet after wandering aimlessly for the better part of a decade, like someone in a new city with a dead phone and unhelpful townies.

Irrespective of what happens in some prospective bowl game in Florida or California, Michigan successfully eluded the macroscopic reality of its present state for most of the 2015 season.

On Saturday, there was nowhere to run, nowhere to hide.