Shameless Self-Promotion Time: Kansas State, Minnesota

It's been a little quiet here of late, but now that Big Ten basketball is underway that should hopefully be changing. In any case, if you missed my last football recap of the season, I wrote about Saturday's Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl over at Maize n Brew.

In sunnier news, my recap of tonight's basketball game against Minnesota at The Barn went up at Maize n Brew a little while ago; you can read that here.

If you told me that Michigan would win a Big Ten game on the road without Mitch McGary, without Glenn Robinson III for most of the second half and with Zak Irvin leading the way in scoring, well, I would not have believed you. But, that is exactly what happened. The fearless freshman scored 15 points for Michigan tonight, all from beyond the arc (5-for-8 from three).

A big performance from Jon Horford (14 points, 9 rebounds) paced Michigan in the frontcourt. The Wolverines did not show up on the defensive glass --Minnesota rebounded 46.8 percent of its misses-- but that was by no means Horford's fault.

Michigan will have to do a better job on the glass the rest of the way, but, for tonight, a win is a win. The most important numbers of all are the following: 1-0, Michigan's Big Ten record.

Michigan to face Kansas State in Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl

Michigan now sets its sights on Tempe: the Wolverines will meet the Kansas State Wildcats in the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl on Dec. 28, per all manner of beat reporters.

After seeing teams like Texas A&M, LSU and Georgia being thrown around as possible bowl opponents, Michigan ultimately drew the 7-5 Kansas State Wildcats.

Hopefully everyone's ready for a few weeks of jokes about how this game is going to go into quadruple OT because of BWW-related shenanigans.

In any case, I'll have more informative stuff up about this game between now and Dec. 28, either here or at Maize n Brew. For now, I will say that I'm actually a little more excited about this matchup than I thought I'd be.

A victory against KSU is a more realistic outcome than one against any of the potential opponents mentioned above would have been. Now, this Michigan team cannot be considered a lock to beat anyone --not this season-- but Michigan should have a good chance at finishing the season with an eighth win.

Additionally, if you're a fan of novelty, the Wolverines and Wildcats have never met on the gridiron.

The Wildcats limped out of the gate to a 2-4 start in 2013, beginning with an upset at the hands of North Dakota State (a strong program, to be sure, but still an upset). However, the Wildcats rebounded against the much weaker back end of the schedule, winning five of their last six games, including a victory at a then ranked Texas Tech (they were No. 25, but still).

Perhaps the offensive display Michigan put forth against the Buckeyes has me a little more excited than I ought to be about a Michigan bowl game on Dec. 28. Nonetheless, football is football, and Dec. 28 will be Michigan fans' last chance to watch the Wolverines in action until the spring game.

As always, it feels as if the season only just started. Unfortunately, it's almost over. True, it is a meaningless game. At the same time, it's a chance to watch Michigan play. That might not seem so appealing right now, but it will be once we hit the doldrums of summer baseball.

Michigan-Kansas State Preview: So We Meet Again

Michigan (4-0) vs. Kansas State (5-0)

Time: 4:30 ET

Place: Madison Square Garden--New York, NY

Line: Michigan -4

Exposition 

Michigan enters the championship game of the NIT Season Tipoff at 4-0 after grinding out an ugly but encouraging 5-point win against Pittsburgh. If you care about meaningless preseason tournaments, Michigan can win one with a victory in the World's Most Famous Arena today against 5-0 Kansas State, now led by Bruce Weber. 

When Michigan went down by seven early in the second half, it wasn't hard to revert to the default state of Michigan fan pessimism. It was easy to wonder if maybe all this preseason hype was unwarranted, and that maybe we are underestimating the loss of valuable players like Stu Douglass and Zack Novak, just as we did in 2009 with David Merritt and C.J. Lee. 

Well, those fears were squashed via flourishes of freshman brilliance, with Trey Burke having somewhat of an off night. Nik Stauskas and Glenn Robinson III took turns hitting bit shots, while Tim Hardaway Jr. caught fire down the stretch; he went 1-7 from three, the one make came with six minutes to go to put Michigan up by four. 

Once again, Michigan comes in with the proverbial bullseye on its back. I typically hate these sorts of sports clichés, but I think Michigan will find that as long as they have that top-five ranking next to their name, teams will give them their best shot. Translation: SPORTZ! Clearly the turkey stupor has lingered into today.

The Opponent

Kansas State enters this one at 5-0, with mostly no contest victories against North Dakota, Lamar, Alabama-Huntsville and North Florida before eeking out a 3-point win against Delaware in MSG on Wednesday. So, a pretty standard early season slate, which we will unfortunately need to extrapolate wildly from in order to say things about this game.

Based on the numbers alone, it would appear that KSU doesn't exactly have a star player; however they do get some balanced scoring. 5'11'' G Angel Rodriguez leads the way for KSU with 11.2 ppg and a team high 4.6 apg. 

Next up is 6'4'' G Rodney McGruder, who leads the team in field goal attempts with 54. McGruder is averaging 10 ppg. Luckily for Michigan, Rodriguez and McGruder haven't exactly been all that efficient thus far; in a combined 100 attempts, the two Wildcats have shot 39% from the field (and a terrible 28% from beyond the arc). 

Rounding out the top five are 6'2'' G Will Spradling (9.8 ppg), 6'7'' F Thomas Gipson (9.2 ppg) and 6'6'' G Shane Southwell (7.4 ppg). Of note, Spradling and Southwell are the top 3-point gunners for the Wildcats. Spradling has shot 9-20 (45%) from 3 thus far and Southwell is 7-10 (70%).

This will be an entirely different test, personnel-wise, than Pitt presented. Kansas State's starting five from the Delaware game in MSG Wednesday ran as such: 5'11'' Rodriguez, 6'6'' Southwell, 6'5'' Nino Williams, 6'1'' G Martavious Irving and 6'3'' G Omari Lawrence.

After giving up some second chance opportunities on Wednesday night, Michigan for the most part dominated the glass against a formidable Pitt front court. Needless to say, it would be somewhat of a disappointment if Michigan didn't dominate the glass against an undersized KSU lineup.  

The Gameplan

Despite being coached by former Illini coach Bruce Weber, Kansas State actually has a 34th-best in the nation assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.34. If you watched Illinois attempt to run offense last year, this is somewhat of a surprise. Despite having Brandon Paul and lottery pick Meyers Leonard, the Illini offense looked downright incompetent, and basically required historic performances from Paul to beat anyone of worth in the Big Ten. 

Is this is a product of the competition? Probably. To be honest, if Michigan can't force the same "dribble around the perimeter for 30 seconds then jack up a long two or a three" that became an Illini staple like the throwback screen in Al Borges' offense, I'd be a little disappointed in Michigan's team defense. 

Whereas the Panthers where slightly slower than an already fairly slow Michigan team, the Wildcats are a bit faster; they're averaging 69.2 possessions per game (to Michigan's 66.0). This should be another battle waged mostly in the half court, with occasional bursts of transition ball. That's the sweet spot for this Michigan team.

Really, Michigan won't need to do anything special to win this one. The Wolverines won on Wednesday despite: a) shooting 3-17 from beyond the arc, which would have seemed like an inconceivable outcome for a Beilein team as recently as last season and b) Burke shooting 5-16 from the field. I don't see either of those things happening again. 

 

Miscellaneous Stats

• Prolific pilferers. KSU is tied for 67th in steal percentage at 13.0%. 

• Offensive rebounding. Despite the general lack of the size in the KSU starting lineup, three reserves --Jordan Henriquez, Adrian Diaz and D.J. Johnson-- are all in the top 13 nationally in offensive rebounding percentage. Six foot ten inch freshman Adrian Diaz is right behind Mitch McGary, who is #2 nationally at 25.8%. 

• Block party. Again, KSU's bench is far bigger than its starting lineup; the aforementioned Henriquez, a 6'11'' senior, is 41st nationally in block percentage at 11.9%.

Ending Thoughts, Predictions, Etc. 

Simply put, I don't see enough top end scoring on KSU's part to keep up with Michigan, who should presumably bounce back after a poor effort from the field Wednesday night. Not only that, one wouldn't exactly be crazy to be skeptical of Bruce Weber's chops when it comes to coaching up a functional offense. 

Michigan simply has a more talented, better coached team than KSU does. This one probably goes a little smoother than Wednesday's game. 

Score: Michigan 72, Kansas State 61.

Big 12 Preview (Part 2): Intruder(s) In the Dust

Already blabbered about: SEC West, SEC East, ACC Coastal, Big 12 (Part 1) 


It's time to finish up the Big 12 by taking a look at Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech, TCU, and West Virginia. Yes, West Virginia in the Big 12 is still not something that I have completely assimilated into my college football worldview. 

Say, man, you got a bad defense? It'd be a lot cooler if you did. 

Prologue 
The 2011 season for the Oklahoma State Cowboys might have been its most exhilarating and disappointing season at the same time. As for the exhilarating part, the Cowboys went 12-1, winning a Big 12 championship along the way for the first time since the league formed in 1996. Excluding the 2010 season, it was their first double-digit win total since 1988. It was a wildly successful season built on the back of a juggernaut of an offense that didn't miss a beat at all even with OC Dana Holgorsen's departure for Morgantown. New OC Todd Monken called the plays for an offense that finished 3rd in total offense (behind only Houston and Baylor) and second in scoring offense (behind only Houston). Led by AARP member Brandon Weeden (GET IT BECAUSE HE WAS 28 AND THAT'S OLD FOR A COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYER), receiver Justin Blackmon, and tailback Joseph Randle, the offense essentially was an athletic refurbishing of Russia's "scorched earth" policy. Only, instead of scorching its own earth, they, you know, incinerated Big 12 defenses instead. 

As for the disappointing part, I think you know what I mean. Their one loss on the road against Iowa State, combined with an SEC favoritism built on the back of the previous five seasons, led to the Cowboys getting passed up by Alabama for the second national title berth. It's difficult to argue that Alabama did not have the look and feel of a national title team, but the strange, labyrinthine non-logic of college football would seem to do away with the notion that a "best" team could ever truly be decided. By that I of course mean that maybe the Cowboys would not have fared better against LSU than Alabama did, but I see no reason why they should have been denied the chance. 

In lieu of criticism of Oklahoma State's defense--and by extension Big 12 defense as a whole--mostly finding its source in Dixie, the most under-the-radar stat of the 2011 season was the fact that OSU ended the season with the #1 turnover margin. I don't remember people offering undue criticism to Auburn in 2010 for having a less than stellar defense, so I still don't understand why OSU was hammered for not putting up the same defensive stats that teams like LSU and Alabama did. Regardless, it was a wildly successful season for Mike Gundy, one that will be remembered for many years to come in Stillwater. 

The Texas teams presented a bit of a mixed bag. Mack Brown's Longhorns bounced back after a horrible 5-7 season in 2010 to go 8-5 last season. However, it was still a disappointing season for Texas in a number of ways. Despite having a ferocious defense and a pair of very good tailbacks in Malcolm Brown and Joe Bergeron, the Longorns's quarterback play let them down. Its been two seasons since Colt McCoy left for the NFL, and Mack Brown is still looking for a capable signal caller. After the collapse of the Garett Gilbert experiment in 2010 (and his ensuing transfer), the position shifted its focus to two youngsters in Case McCoy and David Ash. Ash put up better numbers across the boards but didn't exactly separate himself from McCoy in the race to secure the position. 

Despite the much-maligned Greg Davis's resignation in 2010, the 2011 offense wasn't much better, co-coordinated by former UT QB Major Applewhite and Bryan Harsin. The Longhorns finished 55th in scoring, 54th in total offense, and 89th in passing efficiency. With most of 2011's staunch defense and Bergeron and Brown both returning, its fairly clear that one of these two quarterbacks will need to seize the position and provide at minimum reliable play if this team is going to approach its former formidability. 

Texas Tech, on the other hand, was quite the opposite in almost every way. Quarterback Seth Doege put up monster numbers all season, most notably against Oklahoma in what was the Sooners' home loss since 2005. Unfortunately, the defense was still the sieve that you would imagine it to be. The Red Raiders finished 144th in total defense and near the very bottom in scoring defense (117th). No matter how potent your offense is--a notion that is still kind of amusing when attached to a head coach of Tommy Tuberville's decidedly conservative offensive reputation--you are not going to win very many games. And, in 2011, they didn't. After the Oklahoma upset took them to 5-2, TTU lost out, finishing 5-7, their first sub-.500 season since 1992. 

Next, we have the newcomers from Fort Worth. TCU started the season with a disheartening loss at Baylor that officially set RGIII mania into motion and also forced people to ask questions about what used to be an indomitable defense. Fortunately, on the back of QB Casey Pachall, the Horned Frogs finished what was otherwise a strong season. After a slip up in OT against SMU, TCU won out, including wins against Boise State and a bowl win against a sneakily solid Louisian Tech team. It is probably a testament to Gary Patterson's coaching acumen that an 11-2 (7-0) season could even be slightly painted with the brush of disappointment. With that said, while TCU was not exactly terrible on defense last season (as mentioned yesterday, most of the important metrics put them right on the fringe of the top third in the country), they will need to return to their defensively elite ways if they want to hope to keep the offenses in their new conference in check. 

Lastly, we have West Virginia, coming to the conference fresh of a national humiliation of Clemson during bowl season. Despite a puzzling 26-point loss at Syracuse in October and another loss at home against an improving but not exactly fearsome Louisville team, WVU proved themselves to be a team worthy of serious recognition by season's end. Additionally, despite losing by 26 to LSU at home, it was arguably one of the "closest" 26-point losses that I've ever seen (as I mentioned yesterday). The fact that Oklahoma State ran basically the same offense last season that they did when Holgorsen was in town lends some credence to the fact that the Cowboys would have had more success against LSU then SEC partisans would have led you to believe. 

In short, while the Big 12 still does not have enough teams for a conference championship game, this will yet again be the most exciting conference in America for the offensively inclined. It can be argued that the TCU and WVU additions were just as strong as the SEC's chosen pair of newcomers, but that will be proven or disproven in the years to come.