NIT Season Tip-Off Final Observations: Arizona 72, Duke 66

Fouad Egbaria

For those with unrealistic expectations, Michigan's 5-2 start to the season could be considered a disappointment. However, when tethered to reality and understanding the difficulties of breaking in a new point guard --not to mention replacing a player of Trey Burke's caliber, not to mention Tim Hardaway Jr., who is having a solid start to his NBA career in New York-- then perhaps such a start is not so surprising. 

With that said, if Michigan is planning on entering the Big Dance with a decent seed, they will need to grab a big non-conference win or two before entering what should once again be a brutal Big Ten slate. Fortunately for the Wolverines, Duke and Arizona (and even Stanford, to a lesser extent), present the Wolverines with that opportunity. 

I was lucky enough to attend Friday NIT Tip-Off final between Duke and Arizona at Madison Square Garden, so I figured this would be a good space to kill two birds with one stone with some of my observations on both teams. 

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First, a general outline of the game itself is probably in order. After sitting through the triple overtime Alabama-Drexel game, the first half of Duke-Arizona provided an enormous step up in the speed and level of play. The Blue Devils and Wildcats battled it out in what was an incredibly entertaining first half of basketball, one in which the largest lead was only five (11-6, Duke). 

Duke went into the half up, 36-33, with eight points from Jabari Parker in the half's final five minutes (he finished the first half with 10). Brandon Ashley led the Wildcats at the half with 11 points of his own. 

A Quinn Cook three six minutes into the second half gave Duke a 43-37 lead, its largest of the game. Sitting in MSG, however, you got the sense that if Duke got a stop and scored again, things might start to get out of hand. 

Luckily for Sean Miller U of A squad, a dunk and an Aaron Gordon three a minute later cut the lead to one, and it was back to being the tight game it had been all along. 

The Wildcats kept rolling, rattling of a 12-2 run that eventually gave them a 4-point lead with 8:16 remaining. The pressure was then squarely on Duke's shoulders, but especially Parker's, who had only scored two points in the second half to that point (from the free throw line). 

Rodney Hood, by far Duke's best player on Friday, pitched in an and-1 to cut the lead to one, but the Wildcats kept pushing, this time with an 8-0 run to gain a 57-48 lead, ultimately the knockout punch, with about six and a half minutes to play. 

Hood answered the call again, this time burying a shot from beyond the arc, but Duke couldn't defend the paint, allowing consecutive Arizona dunks. 

Shameless Self-Promotion Time: Iowa State Preview

Although Michigan fans have a football game to get through first tomorrow, the Wolverine basketball team will head to Iowa State on Sunday for what should be a credible early season test. I previewed that game over at Maize n Brew: go take a look.

The Cyclones are without F Melvin Ejim, but they still have plenty of offensive firepower. Michigan will have its hands full attempting to check Naz Long and Georges Niang, not to mention transfers DeAndre Kane and Dustin Hogue.

Sunday's game at the Hilton Coliseum in Ames tips off at 5:00 ET on ESPN2.

Elsewhere in the B1G: Wisconsin looks for revenge, Michigan State squares off against No. 1 Kentucky

If you haven't noticed, I've been writing a decent bit about non-Michigan things here of late. As we head into basketball season, I'm going to try to expand my writing here to nudge this place toward general interest material, particularly with respect to college basketball. There's a lot of great stuff happening out there in the world of sports, and there's no point limiting myself to writing only about Michigan. 
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While Michigan squares off against another overmatched opponent tonight at the Crisler Center, a pair of big games featuring Big Ten squads are on the docket tonight as the Tip-Off Marathon draws to a close. Wisconsin draws Florida at the Kohl Center, while Tom Izzo's Spartans get No. 1 Kentucky at the United Center in Chicago.

So, let's start with the Badgers:

No. 20 Wisconsin vs. No. 10 Florida--Kohl Center, Madison, Wis. (9:00 ET, ESPN2)

Fouad Egbaria

The Badgers scored a solid victory against an athletic St. John's squad in Sioux Falls on Friday; they'll look to build on that tonight as Bill Donovan's squad comes to the Kohl Center. 

Resume

Of course, there's not much here yet. The Gators have played one game, an uninspiring (by the box score) 77-69 victory against North Florida on Friday. Senior forward Casey Prather led the way with 28 points on 10-of-15 shooting; Prather also pulled down eight boards. 

Freshman point guard Kasey Hill scored 15 points of his own (5-of-9 shooting), plus four assists, two steals, a block and two turnovers. 

North Florida's frontcourt seemed to have some success against their Gator counterparts. Forward Travis Wallace scored 15 and 6'11'' center Romelo Banks pitched in 10 of his own. The Gators did force 17 UNF turnovers, but the Ospreys did also pull down 13 offensive boards, good for an ORB% of 34%. 

Most years, this would be big for a frontcourt-oriented Badgers squad; however, as I've noted here before, Bo Ryan's squad will be powered by its backcourt this season, until younger options, like freshmen forwards Vitto Brown and Nigel Hayes, get some seasoning. Frank Kaminsky is Wisconsin's only experienced big guy, but he is more of a shooter than a true low post warrior. 

The Badgers took their worst loss of the season last season against Florida down in Gainesville, a 76-54 loss almost a year ago on Nov. 14. There's no question that the Badgers will be looking to avenge that loss in front of a raucous Kohl Center crowd. 

Personnel

On the bright side for UW, despite Florida's currently shiny ranking, this Gator squad is probably not as good as it was last year. Erik Murphy, Kenny Boyton and Mike Rosario are gone, and the Gators are also dealing with a trio of suspensions. 

At that link is a solid Q&A between SB Nation's Bucky's 5th Quarter and Alligator Army; as noted there, Prather and Hill will represent the bulk of UF's offensive firepower, especially Prather. 

Senior forward Patric Young (who is actually listed at center despite only being 6'9'') will be key for the Gators' chances tonight, particularly given the unsettled nature of the Badgers frontcourt. Florida will need much more than the two point, two rebound effort Young pitched in against UNF. 

Forward Will Yeguete and guard DeVon Walker round out the starting five for UF; they went a combined 1-of-6 from the field against UNF. Yeguete had himself a nice game against Michigan in the Elite 8 last season, going 5-of-5 from the field for 13 points. 

As for the Badgers, Frank Kaminsky, Josh Gasser, Ben Brust, Traevon Jackson and Sam Dekker should once again comprise the starting five. Gasser's post-injury debut against St. John's was wildly successful, scoring 19 points on 3-of-5 shooting from beyond the arc and 8-of-8 from the charity stripe. 

With Ryan Evans no longer on the roster, production from the low post might be hard to find for the Badgers this season. However, with Brust and Gasser shooting well, and Dekker filling it up as he is wont to do, the perimeter game should more than make up for it most nights. 

Points of Emphasis

• In that vein, how do the Badgers respond if their shots aren't falling and they can't find opportunities in transition? This game should provide a good test in that regard. 

• Who checks Patric Young? The odds are good that Young won't be held to just two points again tonight. Can Kaminsky and the young forwards, Hayes and Brown, slow him down?

• According to Andy Hutchins of Alligator Army, UF's perimeter defense has been "almost embarrassingly bad" thus far. The Badgers should get some good looks. For all of the advanced stats that now exist to dissect the game of college basketball, it always comes down to simply making shots. 

Prediction

Ken Pomeroy predicted a 65-63 UW victory with 57 percent confidence. He's a smart guy, and I tend to agree with him. If the Gators were at full strength, maybe this would be different, but with the Badgers playing at the fortress that is the Kohl Center, I think they shoot well enough to keep a depleted UF squad in check. I agree that both teams will land in the 60s, but I think the Badgers win by a few more points than Kenpom thinks. 

Score: Wisconsin 68, Florida 61. 

And with that, I'll move on to the main event of the night: No. 1 Kentucky vs. No. 2 Michigan State. 

Preview: South Carolina State

No. 9 Michigan once again takes the Crisler Center hardwood tonight, this time against 1-1 South Carolina State. This is Michigan's final tuneup game before hitting the road on Sunday to take on Fred Hoiberg's Iowa State squad in Ames; even without senior forward Melvin Ejim, ISU should be a tough test. 

Nonetheless, there's not much use in going too in depth for a game like this, especially so early in the season. So, I'll talk a little SCSU personnel then move on to some miscellaneous Michigan-centric thoughts.

Resume
South Carolina State has played two games, at Marshall and St. Andrews, the latter which I'm pretty sure could be a school I played against in high school.

The Bulldogs --of the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference-- lost at Marshall, 85-69, a game in which they were fairly competitive for a while. Then again, that probably isn't saying much, as Marshall finished just 13-19 last season.

In their second game, the Bulldogs hosted St. Andrews and won in overtime, 59-55. As always at this point in the season, neither of these things means anything. Then again, you typically don't need contextual evidence to know that South Carolina State is probably not very good vis-a-vis even the worst major conference teams.

Personnel

Based on box scores alone, senior forward Matthew Hezekiah seems to be SCSU's best player. He scored 19 and 17 in his first two games while shooting 69.6% from the field.

Speaking of the Marshall game, due to some foul trouble the Bulldogs ended up playing 15 (!) different guys. That is incredible. Unfortunately for SCSU, Hezekiah was the only one to get in the double-digits in points.

Against St. Andrews, senior guard Adama Adams scored on 6-of-9 shooting (3-of-5 from beyond the arc). Barring some of the other guys on the roster getting a hold of Michael Jordan's "Secret Stuff," these two will likely be the only scoring threats.

Points of Emphasis

• This is another bad team: can Michigan avoid a first half case of the Mondays? Not that it even matters if they don't, but consistency is nice. 

• With Mitch McGary still out, can Glenn Robinson III continue to find ways to make himself a focal point of the offense i.e. to "hunt" for his shots? As has been discussed over and over again this offseason regarding his game, this is no longer the year of the putback/dunk for GRIII; he will now be expected to create. 

• Can Michigan get out in transition early? UMass-Lowell did a good job of shutting down Michigan's fast break game by simply getting back on defense with alacrity. 

• Derrick Walton watch: How does he look on the pick and roll? How about from three-point land? Can he learn from his relatively few mistakes thus far, i.e. last game's traveling call in transition?

• Is Caris LeVert actually shaping up to be a guy Michigan relies on for big points and some amount of ball-handling? Or is he simply filling the McGary-sized production vacuum?

• Plain and simple: shooting. Michigan was downright atrocious from the field in the first half against Lowell. I guess part of the benefit of these cupcake matchups is the opportunity for guys to get some good looks and see the ball go in. The Wolverines would like to get the types of looks they go in the second half against Lowell as opposed to the parade of jumpers they settled on in the first half. 

Most of these questions won't be answered for a while; unlike football, however, there isn't quite as much urgency for these answers to be so immediate. Each game is a small step forward in the data-gathering process. As for this game, it is one last chance for the team, especially the freshmen, to breathe before the non-conference schedule starts to pick up in quality. 

No use in even deigning to make a definite score prediction here. Michigan will win, by a lot. 

Shameless Self-Promotion Time: Nebraska Preview

Hello. How are you? Hope your day has been nice. Anyway, it's the usual procedure: I wrote something about Michigan, but it is not here, so you will have to go somewhere else to read that thing.

Here is the link to said thing: a preview of tonight's Nebraska game!

Shameless Self-Promotion Time: Northwestern Preview

The Wolverines head to Evanston tonight for their B1G opener against the Fighting Warrior Poets of Northwestern. Here is a preview of this game, featuring an NU team missing Drew Crawford and Reggie Hearn (i.e. its top two scorers). I guess it's time for...

Michigan-Western Michigan Preview: Rollin'

#3 Michigan (7-0) vs. Western Michigan (6-1) 

Time: 8:30 ET (BTN) 

Place: Crisler Arena Center--Ann Arbor, Mich.

Exposition 
The Wolverines head back to the friendly confines of the Crisler Center after a comfortable road win against a seemingly improved Bradley team. Things were a bit dicey at the end, but such is the way of college basketball games on the road. 

Regardless, Michigan is riding high, particularly off of the efforts of freshman sharpshooter Nik Stauskas. At 8-0 and ranked third in the country, things are prettyyy, prettyyy, prettyyy good. 

The remainder of the nonconference schedule features all three Michigan directional schools, Binghamton, Arkansas and a fairly disappointing West Virginia team. Needless to say, a 14-0 start seems extremely likely for the Wolverines.

The Opponent  
Of course, this is college basketball, where upsets do happen. For all of Michigan's success to date, this is still a very young team; it will be interesting to see how the Wolverines respond when its freshmen finally play like freshmen, all in the same game. 

Western Michigan comes to town tonight, entering the contest with a 6-1 record. The Broncos dropped their season opener at Cornell, who currently sits at 4-5 on the season. 

Otherwise, the Broncos are riding a 6-game winning streak, beating the following stalwarts: Marygrove, Loyola (IL), Maryland-Eastern Shore, South Florida, HP (High Point, not a team of surprisingly nimble Hewlett-Packard employees) and Oakland.  Excluding the game against this so called "Marygrove," the Broncos have compiled an average margin of victory of 7.4 points, which seems like a modest sum even for a MAC team, but that is an impressionistic statement at best. 

Offensively, the Broncos are paced by a triumvirate of double-digit scorers in: 6'7'' senior F Nate Hutcheson (13.7 ppg); 6'8'' freshman F Darius Paul (11.7 ppg), brother of Illinois' Brandon Paul; and 6'4'' senior G Brandon Pokley (11.4 ppg). 

As a team, the Broncos are averaging a fairly middling 68.1 ppg, good for 176th in the country. For the sake of comparison, Bradley currently sits at 68th with 74.9 ppg. 

6'10'' RS Jr. center Shayne Whittington is also pitching in 9.9 ppg and a team high 8.6 rebounds per game. Indeed, he is basically an Ent. 

The Broncos seem to really only go seven deep, with small forward Connar Tava and guards Jared Klein and Austin Richie rounding out the regular rotation.

The Broncos are shooting an okay 37% from beyond the arc. Michigan's opponents have shot just 30.8% from downtown thus far. Hutcheson and Pokley have taken 58% of WMU's treys between them; Hutcheson is shooting just 33% whereas Pokley shoots a sterling 46%. As such, Pokley is clearly the guy to watch on the perimeter. 

The Gameplan  

Although Western Michigan has been relatively successful under head coach Steve Hawkins' tutelage, they are in fact still a MAC team. Especially at home, this is not a team that Michigan should struggle against a la last year's Oakland game. 

WMU does not possess exceptional depth or size, as you might expect. Their two most-used forwards are 6'7'' and 6'8''. Whittington is the only source of worry for Michigan in the front court. Otherwise, it's a medley of guards for this team. If Michigan doesn't go all 2009 Denard "broken plays are very dangerous" on this squad, that would not be good (although probably indicative of nothing save a disappointing singular performance). 

The Broncos do possess a shiny 37% offensive rebounding percentage, but schedule caveats certainly apply.  As long as Michigan cleans up the boards, this should be a pretty comfortable victory. Getting Whittington in foul trouble early would surely be a death knell to WMU's already minuscule chances at an upset. Whittington fouled out in WMU's last game against Oakland, and is averaging 2.71 fouls per game on the season. 

So, go to work, Michigan bigs that now exist because it is 2012 and up is down and down is up.  

Miscellaneous Stats 

• Slow and steady. Pace-wise, Michigan should feel right at home in this one; the Broncos are averaging 64.1 possessions per game, just under Michigan's 67.1 mark. The faint smell of molasses will linger in the Crisler Center air tonight. 

• Charity. WMU has amassed a decent FT rate of 42.5%, good for 74th in the country (Michigan is ranked 255th at 31.3%). Just like any other game, stupid fouls on Michigan's part are one of only a couple things that could keep this game somewhat close. 

• Give and take. Despite the less than difficult schedule, the Broncos have managed an assist to turnover ratio of exactly 1:1 (86 turnovers, 86 assists). Point guard Austin Richie leads the team in assists, but even he is only averaging 4.0 apg, with an assist percentage of 29.4 (140th in the country). Michigan should be able to force the Broncos into some ugly half court sets; again, as long as the Wolverines decline to present WMU with second chance opportunities, I don't see the Broncos consistently generating offense in the half court game.

Ending Thoughts, Predictions, Etc.
There really isn't much to say. This is a MAC team that Michigan should easily handle. At 6'10'', Whittington provides a decent matchup for Michigan's front court, but given Michigan's lockdown effort against Pitt 7-footer Steven Adams, this isn't much of a concern at all.

Michigan should be able to get the bench some significant run about halfway through the second half. The only thing I'm looking for tonight and heading into the rest of the nonconference schedule is how the freshmen, particularly Stauskas, respond when things start not turning up Milhouse all the time, which you have to think is an inevitability. I mean, he can't keep maintain his current eFG% of 75.0% forever, right? Right? The funny thing is, I'm not even sure that that is a rhetorical question.

Score: Michigan 75, Western Michigan 59.

Michigan-N.C. State Preview: Showcase

Time: 7:30 ET
Place: Crisler Arena Center--Ann Arbor, MI
Line:Michigan -7

Exposition

The Wolverines come back to Ann Arbor riding on kingly steeds as the champions of the illustrious and surely not mostly meaningless NIT Season Tip-Off tournament in New York. After a game with decidedly Big Ten undertones against Pitt, the Wolverines out-talented what should turn out to be at least an okay Kansas State team. 

On the other hand, N.C. State is coming off a wildly successful 2011-12 season, in which the Wolfpack, under new head coach Mark Gottfried (formerly at Alabama), reached the Sweet 16 as a mere 11-seed. As such, the hype train was off to the races; the Wolfpack were ranked #6 coming into the new season, higher than both Duke and North Carolina. 

Unfortunately for the people of Raleigh, the Wolfpack have gotten off to a less than ideal start, even though they are still in fact 4-1 (hardly a disastrous start on paper). They dispatched Miami (OH), Penn State and UMass with relative ease, but things got much dicier thereafter. 

Playing in San Juan, the 'Pack fell to Oklahoma State, losing each half by the same score (38-28), a 20-point defeat that knocked them from their lofty perch in the polls. Only one starter scored in the double digits (freshman G Rodney Purvis) and the 'Pack shot only 36%, managing only 7 assists as a team. 
 
In their next outing Friday, the 'Pack were given all they wanted by lowly UNC-Asheville, who came into the game at 1-4. They trailed by three at the half, and were down 7 as late as the 8:30 mark of the second half. Powered by C.J. Leslie, Richard Howell and Lorenzo Brown, the 'Pack were able to battle back and grab the ugly win, which is more than can be said for a lot of other big name teams around the country (namely UCLA re: Sunday's loss against Cal Poly). In the end, getting the win is all that matters come Selection Sunday. 

With the 'Pack reeling and the Wolverines flying high, a loss at home would be incredibly disappointing for Michigan. On the heels of a successful trip to New York, where the Wolverines flashed their newfound muscle, depth and overall talent, this is a game that Michigan should be able to bring home for the conference in the Big Ten-ACC Challenge. 

The Opponent 

Based on the season to date, the Wolfpack don't appear to be a particularly deep squad. Only 7 players are averaging significant minutes, 8 if you include Thomas de Thaey's 8.0 mpg (he has only played in 3 of State's 5 games). 

 As far as scoring distribution goes, the 'Pack have been getting some incredibly balanced scoring from their top 6, who all average north of 10 ppg. Freshman F T.J. Warren leads the way with 14.8 ppg, with senior F Richard Howell not far behind at 14.6 ppg. Both of them are 6'8'', FWIW. Howell is shooting an absurd 72% from the field, with Warren also not far behind at 68%. It's no surprise that Howell leads the team in offensive rebounds (13); Michigan will, as always, need to clean up on the glass. Unlike years past, this is not a pleading admonition, but a gentle reminder to do the thing that we are no actually capable of doing.

As far as guard play goes, the 'Pack rely on freshman Rodney Purvis and junior Lorenzo Brown for a back court 1-2 punch. They both average just around 11 ppg. As the point guard, Brown is naturally the bigger distributor, averaging 5.2 apg. At six feet five inches, Brown presents somewhat of a matchup problem for Michigan. Unless Beilein deploys the 1-3-1 again, I find it hard to believe that Trey Burke will be matched up on him for extended periods of time, if at all.

Rounding out the top 6 are Scott Wood, a senior forward shooting 45% from beyond the arc on the most attempts of any player on the team (29). C.J. Leslie, a six foot nine inches tall junior forward, registers at a shade under 11 ppg; he is also the team's second most effective rebounder behind Howell, grabbing 7 rpg thus far.

In short, the Wolfpack are a top 25 team if you look at their top 6 alone. However, this is a team that doesn't have many viable options past that; Gottfried went with a 7-man rotation against UNC-Asheville. Outside of the two guards, the other four options are forwards at 6'8'' or 6'9'', with Wood the lone outlier at 6'6'' (and the team's resident 3-point gunner).

Michigan should be able to match N.C. State's front court depth with relative ease by virtue of its own abundance of depth.

The Gameplan 

With only five games in the books, statistical sample size caveats obviously still apply. However, the 'Pack can definitely score, as they sit at 28th in the nation at 80.2 ppg, only three spots behind Michigan. Defensively, however, the 'Pack are an unimpressive 228th in the nation in points per game allowed (69.2).

They don't really block shots, either. Given their personnel, this isn't really a surprise, as they have multiple 6'8/9'' guys but not truly elite guys, height-wise, like Pitt's Steven Adams or KSU's Jordan Henriquez. The 'Pack's block percentage is a lowly 3.8%, just below Michigan's also pretty bad 4.0%. As such, Michigan should not be afraid to attack the basket whatsoever. 

Speaking of, Michigan can potentially win this game in the first half by doing so. Given State's lack of depth, getting guys in foul trouble early could basically mean doom for the Wolfpack, a la last year when Michigan got Meyers Leonard to pick up two quick fouls (I can't remember if this happened in both games against the Illini, but it definitely happened in at least one of them). 

With respect to pace, the 'Pack play a decidedly more up tempo game than the Wolverines, which I have to imagine is partly skewed by their high-scoring, desperate comeback against UNC-Asheville. They are averaging 7 more possessions per game than Michigan, clocking in at 72.2 possessions per. It's not like Michigan doesn't have the athletes to run, but with so much youth at various spots, you would rather have your upper classmen (i.e. Burke and THJ) slice and dice the opponent in the half court, seizing upon defensive opportunism for intermittent bursts of transition ball. 

I wouldn't feel uncomfortable with a faster game, but a faster game would certainly play to N.C. State's liking. So, let's not do that.  

Miscellaneous Stats 

• State is a mediocre 146th in assist to turnover ratio, clocking in at 0.97 to Michigan's sterling 17th best 1.46. Brown is the most and seemingly only capable distributor on the team, and whomever lands that matchup could very well determine whether this is a 10-point victory or a close one going in either direction.  
•  Rebounding. State has rebounded 37% of its misses to date, just a tad lower than Michigan's 38%. For the record, Michigan only rebounded 30% of its misses in 2011-12. 
•  eFG%. The Wolfpack have two players in the top 35 nationally in eFG%: Richard Howell (71.8%) and T.J. Warren (71.3%).
  

Ending Thoughts, Predictions, Etc.

After a run to the Sweet 16 and the departure of only one significant player from last year's roster, it appears that the college basketball world has jumped the gun a bit with respect to N.C. State's relative quality. Now, odds are they aren't as bad as they've shown the last two games, but it certainly doesn't look good. 

The 'Pack have a formidable top 6 that can all score in the double digits. As mentioned, as a 6'5'' point guard, Lorenzo Brown could prove problematic at times, so THJ (or whoever ends up on him) will need to be on their best game defensively. 

All in all, I think Michigan has too much depth, and Michigan's size should be able to match up just fine with State's forwards. Unless Michigan puts up a catastrophically awful performance, this is a game that should at worst be a close victory. I picture Michigan leading by about 10-13 for much of the second half before an N.C. State run late makes it somewhat of a game before the inevitable free throwpalooza to close it out. 

Score: Michigan 72, N.C. State 64. 

Michigan-Kansas State Preview: So We Meet Again

Michigan (4-0) vs. Kansas State (5-0)

Time: 4:30 ET

Place: Madison Square Garden--New York, NY

Line: Michigan -4

Exposition 

Michigan enters the championship game of the NIT Season Tipoff at 4-0 after grinding out an ugly but encouraging 5-point win against Pittsburgh. If you care about meaningless preseason tournaments, Michigan can win one with a victory in the World's Most Famous Arena today against 5-0 Kansas State, now led by Bruce Weber. 

When Michigan went down by seven early in the second half, it wasn't hard to revert to the default state of Michigan fan pessimism. It was easy to wonder if maybe all this preseason hype was unwarranted, and that maybe we are underestimating the loss of valuable players like Stu Douglass and Zack Novak, just as we did in 2009 with David Merritt and C.J. Lee. 

Well, those fears were squashed via flourishes of freshman brilliance, with Trey Burke having somewhat of an off night. Nik Stauskas and Glenn Robinson III took turns hitting bit shots, while Tim Hardaway Jr. caught fire down the stretch; he went 1-7 from three, the one make came with six minutes to go to put Michigan up by four. 

Once again, Michigan comes in with the proverbial bullseye on its back. I typically hate these sorts of sports clichés, but I think Michigan will find that as long as they have that top-five ranking next to their name, teams will give them their best shot. Translation: SPORTZ! Clearly the turkey stupor has lingered into today.

The Opponent

Kansas State enters this one at 5-0, with mostly no contest victories against North Dakota, Lamar, Alabama-Huntsville and North Florida before eeking out a 3-point win against Delaware in MSG on Wednesday. So, a pretty standard early season slate, which we will unfortunately need to extrapolate wildly from in order to say things about this game.

Based on the numbers alone, it would appear that KSU doesn't exactly have a star player; however they do get some balanced scoring. 5'11'' G Angel Rodriguez leads the way for KSU with 11.2 ppg and a team high 4.6 apg. 

Next up is 6'4'' G Rodney McGruder, who leads the team in field goal attempts with 54. McGruder is averaging 10 ppg. Luckily for Michigan, Rodriguez and McGruder haven't exactly been all that efficient thus far; in a combined 100 attempts, the two Wildcats have shot 39% from the field (and a terrible 28% from beyond the arc). 

Rounding out the top five are 6'2'' G Will Spradling (9.8 ppg), 6'7'' F Thomas Gipson (9.2 ppg) and 6'6'' G Shane Southwell (7.4 ppg). Of note, Spradling and Southwell are the top 3-point gunners for the Wildcats. Spradling has shot 9-20 (45%) from 3 thus far and Southwell is 7-10 (70%).

This will be an entirely different test, personnel-wise, than Pitt presented. Kansas State's starting five from the Delaware game in MSG Wednesday ran as such: 5'11'' Rodriguez, 6'6'' Southwell, 6'5'' Nino Williams, 6'1'' G Martavious Irving and 6'3'' G Omari Lawrence.

After giving up some second chance opportunities on Wednesday night, Michigan for the most part dominated the glass against a formidable Pitt front court. Needless to say, it would be somewhat of a disappointment if Michigan didn't dominate the glass against an undersized KSU lineup.  

The Gameplan

Despite being coached by former Illini coach Bruce Weber, Kansas State actually has a 34th-best in the nation assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.34. If you watched Illinois attempt to run offense last year, this is somewhat of a surprise. Despite having Brandon Paul and lottery pick Meyers Leonard, the Illini offense looked downright incompetent, and basically required historic performances from Paul to beat anyone of worth in the Big Ten. 

Is this is a product of the competition? Probably. To be honest, if Michigan can't force the same "dribble around the perimeter for 30 seconds then jack up a long two or a three" that became an Illini staple like the throwback screen in Al Borges' offense, I'd be a little disappointed in Michigan's team defense. 

Whereas the Panthers where slightly slower than an already fairly slow Michigan team, the Wildcats are a bit faster; they're averaging 69.2 possessions per game (to Michigan's 66.0). This should be another battle waged mostly in the half court, with occasional bursts of transition ball. That's the sweet spot for this Michigan team.

Really, Michigan won't need to do anything special to win this one. The Wolverines won on Wednesday despite: a) shooting 3-17 from beyond the arc, which would have seemed like an inconceivable outcome for a Beilein team as recently as last season and b) Burke shooting 5-16 from the field. I don't see either of those things happening again. 

 

Miscellaneous Stats

• Prolific pilferers. KSU is tied for 67th in steal percentage at 13.0%. 

• Offensive rebounding. Despite the general lack of the size in the KSU starting lineup, three reserves --Jordan Henriquez, Adrian Diaz and D.J. Johnson-- are all in the top 13 nationally in offensive rebounding percentage. Six foot ten inch freshman Adrian Diaz is right behind Mitch McGary, who is #2 nationally at 25.8%. 

• Block party. Again, KSU's bench is far bigger than its starting lineup; the aforementioned Henriquez, a 6'11'' senior, is 41st nationally in block percentage at 11.9%.

Ending Thoughts, Predictions, Etc. 

Simply put, I don't see enough top end scoring on KSU's part to keep up with Michigan, who should presumably bounce back after a poor effort from the field Wednesday night. Not only that, one wouldn't exactly be crazy to be skeptical of Bruce Weber's chops when it comes to coaching up a functional offense. 

Michigan simply has a more talented, better coached team than KSU does. This one probably goes a little smoother than Wednesday's game. 

Score: Michigan 72, Kansas State 61.

Michigan-Pittsburgh Preview: Movin' On Up

No class today+the Wolverines and Bulls taking the floor tonight=previewin' time. Let's start with Michigan. 

Go Michigan Go Michigan Go

Time: 9:30 ET
Place: Madison Square Garden--New York, NY
Line: Michigan -3.5 

Exposition

Michigan heads to the World's Most Famous Arena tonight to take on an undefeated but unranked Pitt Panthers squad. The Panthers started last season 11-2, but those two losses came at the hands of Long Beach State and Wagner; it's perhaps no surprise that the Panthers collapsed from that point forward (i.e. the Big East schedule), finishing the regular season 17-16 (5-13) and missing the NCAA tournament entirely for the first time since 2001.

 Pitt has defeated Mount St. Mary's, Fordham, Lehigh (the 15-seed that defeated Duke) and Oakland. The Panthers handled the first three by an average of 27 points, but the fourth game against Oakland was a bit trickier. The Panthers trailed by as many as 18 points in the second half, only to rally back and take the game to overtime, where they ended up winning by 10. The halftime deficit of 14 points was the largest ever overcome by a Pitt team.

Michigan, on the other hand, has handled each and every overmatched early season opponent with ease. The Wolverines have completely eviscerated Slippery Rock (sorry guys, we still like you), IUPUI (all those letters couldn't save them) and Cleveland State. Is there much point in discussing these games with any sort of depth? Probably not, but it is worth noting that Jon Horford has seen time after missing most of last season with a foot injury. He provides invaluable depth and rebounding to the Wolverines, despite the fact that the Wolverines have seemingly acquired both over the span of one offseason.

Otherwise, Trey Burke is still Trey Burke. Tim Hardway Jr. (known here as THJ, for the uninitiated) has shot a hilarious 73% from 3 (8-11) and 62% from the field overall and the freshmen (minus LeVert) have all flashed their certain sets of skills that made them one of the best basketball classes to come to Michigan in some time.

The Opponent 
 
Pitt is averaging 79 points per game (to Michigan's 89 ppg), paced by three double digit scores in 6'9'' F Talib Zanna (14.0 ppg), 6'0'' G Tray Woodall (13.8 ppg) and 6'6'' F J.J. Moore (13.3 ppg).

Moore is the most efficient 3-point shooter on the team, having gone 6-13 to date (46%). However, Woodall has taken by far the most on the team, taking 27 and making only 8 (30%).

As a team, the Panthers have shot 52% from the field, good for 13th in the country. Luckily for Pitt, however, missing shots has been an "I ain't even mad, though" propostion: the Panthes have rebounded 50% of their misses thus far this season (55 offensive rebounds). Now, take with a sizable grain of salt given the level of competition, but Michigan will of course need to be ready to handle its toughest test on the glass this season by far.

As far as eFG% goes, Zanna is the only Panther who currently checks in within the top 100, sitting at 71.4% (awesome NB: Nik Stauskas currently leads the nation with an eFG% of 96.2).

Against Oakland, Pitt rolled out a starting lineup of Zanna, Woodall, G James Robinson, G-F Lamar Patterson and freshman 7'0'' center Steven Adams, a 5-star recruit from New Zealand.

Like Michigan, the Panthers are capable of dipping into their bench and finding some quality play. The aforementioned J.J. Moore actually comes off the bench himself, so Michigan's second-teamers will need to be ready to be aware of his presence on the 3-point line.

Trey Zeigler, a familiar name for Michiganders, also comes off the bench; he went 2-4 for 5 points and also pitched in 3 rebounds and a steal in 20 minutes against Oakland. 6'9'' 235 lb. F Dante Taylor logged the most minutes of any second-teamer for Pitt against Oakland, putting in 28 minutes and scoring 12 points on 6-7 shooting.

The Gameplan 
 Offensively, Michigan will be able to put up points. However, the step up in size with this Pitt front court will take some adjusting to, especially for a youngster like Mitch McGary, who has been a giant amongst men thus far. Jordan Morgan has been playing against guys taller and more athletic than him for a while now, and should be okay. This is a game where a guy like Horford could prove immensely useful.

i would imagine despite the similarity in height between Tray Woodall and Burke, either THJ or Vogrich will draw him on the defensive end (this is speculation, of course). Woodall is a redshirt senior who can fill it up from outside. He's only shooting 42% from the field --he shot 2-14 from the field against Oakland-- but leads the team in overall attempts with 48.

From the bits and pieces of highlight videos and other miscellaneous things on the Internet, he doesn't strike me as an exceptionally explosive guy. However, he can transition from the bounce to the jumper with relative ease, and he does not seem shy about launching it from beyond the arc. Burke/whoever will need to be ready to chase him around screens. In addition, Woodall is a more than capable distributor, averaging 7.3 assists per game thus far (and an assist percentage of .

6'3'' freshman James Robinson runs the point for the Panthers. He is definitely a classic point guard but hasn't been much of an active playmaker (that's been all Woodall) based on my limited exposure to Pitt basketball thus far. Then again, he is a freshman. With that said, and with all due respect to Robinson, a Rivals 4-star recruit, Burke should be able to have some serious success against him on the offensive end of the floor. I can't see Robinson hanging with him on the pick and roll and, really, off the dribble in general. Woodall has a bit more hop in his step than Robinson, so maybe he gets matched up on Burke after all.

Otherwise, the Panthers have some solid bigs that can score and hit the glass, but given the new look Michigan squad, Pitt's trio of 6'9''-and-taller players (Zanna, Taylor and Adams) shouldn't be able to have their way with Michigan like bigger teams have done in the past.

Miscellaneous Stats

•  Possessions per game. Like Michigan, the Panthers aren't exactly the most up tempo team in college basketball: they average 62 possessions per game (to Michigan's 68). Michigan shouldn't really ever be out of its comfort zone in this one, pace-wise. 
• Also like Michigan, the Panthers boast a nice and shiny assist to turnover ratio of 2.03 (Michigan is sitting at 1.66), good for 4th in the nation.
• Block party. Pitt is 64th in the nation in block percentage at 9.1%.

Ending Thoughts, Predictions, Etc. 
I realize that basing most of my perception of the relative quality of Pitt's team and individual players on the aforementioned Oakland game might not be the most wise thing to do, but it's pretty much the only somewhat meaningful data point to work with at this point.

Pitt doesn't shoot the three all that well but they do seem to take care of the ball for the most part, in addition to getting on the offensive glass fairly effectively. If this were an NCAA game, Woodall is definitely one of the guys getting the "star player" designation; he makes things happen for Pitt, whether he's coming off a screen for a jumper or distributing the ball elsewhere (he has a 38.3% assist percentage).

Again, Pitt has some bigs, and freshman 7-footer Steven Adams can even step out and hit a mid-range jumper if you let him. Still, I don't feel as I did in the past when Michigan was going up against a physical team with multiple bigs, mostly because, hey, Michigan has multiple bigs too. It is a nice feeling, indeed, analogous to the feeling that I get when I watch the football team play defense these days after wandering in the darkness that was the Greg Robinson era.

This will be a good test for Mitch McGary due to the uptick in the level of quality of the opponent's bigs, and it will be interesting to see how he responds. A put-back or two on his first shift would certainly do wonders for his confidence, which is already pretty high to begin with.

Michigan probably won't blow out this Pitt team unless everything turns up Milhouse in a major way, but a 10-15 point victory is not out of the realm of possibility. Jamie Dixon's Pitt squad is an experience one, and will absolutely put up a better effort than it did against Oakland.

A lot of it comes down to whether or not Tray Woodall can have a decent night from the field and whether, conversely, THJ can even halfway continue his torrid shooting pace to date. For THJ, this also includes prudent shot selection, especially in an arena often known for its unforgivingly callous rims.

Score: Michigan 78, Pitt 70.

Illinois Preview: Near the End of the Road

General Outlook 
The Wolverines took on the Illini in Crisler less than 3 weeks ago, a game that played out much like the one played on the gridiron this past fall. Michigan mostly outplayed the Illini in the first half and yet was only up by a somewhat unsatisfying 6-point margin. For a variety of reasons, Meyers Leonard was a complete non-factor after the opening minutes of the game, and Michigan went on to lead by as much as 14 in the second half before sealing up a comfortable 9-point win.

I've already had the chance to preview the Illini, and not much has changed since I last took a look at this sinking ship. So, this preview will probably be somewhat shorter.

"No, DO NOT give it to the 7'1''
guy WARGHBARGHLL!"

Since we last met, the Illini have continued their losing ways; they've gone 1-3 since the meeting in Ann Arbor. The Illini dropped a close home contest to the Boilers, but the next two losses pretty much representing the dousing with kerosene of Weber's chances to still be the head coach in Champaign next season. Illinois went to Lincoln and got destroyed, losing by 23 and at one point allowing the Huskers to go on a 43-7 run, something so catastrophic that it can't be called a "run" so much as a systematic, unimpeded bludgeoning. Yes, you read that correctly: 43-7. This is the same Nebraska team that often looks like a glorified high school team (no offense, Doc...you still have the raddest name of all the B1G coaches).

After that, the Illini went on to look completely outclassed against the Buckeyes on the road, the very same Buckeye team that they were able to pick off at home back right before the jukebox eternally set to play Yakety Sax began to follow the team everywhere. The good news is the Illini did pick up a home win against Iowa on Monday that ended that brutal 6-game losing streak. In further efforts to motivate his flailing team, Weber benched Leonard and Paul after a few "practices determines who starts" practices. It's safe to say that Paul and Leonard will be back in the starting lineup, as this ain't no time for motivational ploys. Weber claims otherwise, but I find it hard to believe that either will come off the bench. It's stand up or go home for the Illini, and they will be playing in accordance with this fact.

The Offense
In conference play, the Illini are 7th in ppg given up at 67.6 per. Needless to say, it has not been smooth sailing; Illinois's long depressing month of failure is filled with crooked numbers given up defensively (i.e. 70+). Thankfully for the Illini, they have a guy like Leonard to mitigate some of their defensive lapses, so one can only wonder how bad this defense might be if they didn't have an above average shot-blocker patrolling the paint.

MOAR

Additionally, Brandon Paul is a relatively active defender on the ball (1.5 spg), as is DJ Richardson to a lesser extent (0.9 spg). So, Michigan will have to be leery in the paint--since getting two fouls on Leonard relatively early in the game might be difficult to accomplish a second time, especially on the road--and the defensive pressure will there on the perimeter. It is senior night, and the Illini need to win this game to slowly push away that match that is currently behind held inches away from the kerosene soaked 2011-12 Illinois campaign. I haven't really kept up with the shifting nuances of the bubble, but if the Illini win out and win 2 games in the BTT, that puts them at 21 wins. I'm saying there's a chance, but I'm also decidedly not a member of the selection committee.

Michigan had very good success against the Illini at home; most notably, inconsistent x-factory types THJ and Smotrycz both pitched in double digit points (15 and 13, respectively). Hardaway attacked the basket, going 3/6 from 2 and making a pair of trips to the free throw line. Alas, Tim has decided that not giving turning real human beings into rageface comics is not his calling in life. Tim will need to replicate his effort the first time around if Michigan wants to escape with the victory, otherwise things could get very dicey, as they often do when you're attempting to get yourself a win on the road by gunning from long range.


The Defense 
Outside of the disheartening performance last Saturday, Michigan has been incredibly stingy (which has to in some part be attributed to Greg Mattison's presence at games). The Wolverines are third in defensive ppg in conference play, spearheaded by some gritastic efforts from Jordan Morgan down low and the consistently solid to very good defense from Trey and Stu on the perimeter.

In Ann Arbor, the Illini showed why they had been having so much trouble on the offensive end despite having talents like Paul and Leonard on the roster. Illinois turned the ball over with alacrity, as they've done throughout most of conference play. The Illini are tied with Minnesota in turnovers per game (14.1), turning the ball over on 21.6% of their offensive possessions. That is awful. Even Brandon Paul, who managed to score 21 while mostly being defended by Stu, turned it over a whopping 7 times.

Conventional wisdom says that if you play solid defense the Illini will self-destruct like so:

Michigan held Leonard to a measly 5 points, which, to be honest, was a product of a puzzling lack of usage and a few attempts around the basket that he just flat out missed. Morgan played good, gritty defense, and I don't want to sell Michigan's team defense short. However, for Leonard to get only 5 attempts from the field in any given game, you'd have to think that Weber is perhaps not a very good basketball coach and entirely deserving of his imminent firing. I rarely go out of the way to call coaches out like that, but come on...five attempts? The only way a player like Leonard gets five attempts on a team like that--with only one other legitimate headliner of a scoring threat--is if the head coach doesn't, as he should, tell his team to "GET THE TALL GUY THE BALL, HE'S 7'1'' FERGODSAKES." Clearly, Weber does not do that (or he doesn't emphasize it...if the guards don't work to feed Leonard the ball, it is ultimately Weber's fault).

I think that it's probably safe to say that Tyler Griffey won't explode for another 18-point effort while Leonard likely won't get only 5 points. Home cooking alone will see him get to the line enough times to get him into the double digits; with a free throw rate of 45.6 in conference play, he gets to the line often.

Who/What To Watch

• Michigan's 3-point attempts...yes, attempts, but not for the reason you may think. In the process of trying to assimilate advanced stats into my basketball worldview, I've learned that a team's ability to limit 3-point attempts is just as important as the percentage that opponents shoot, if not moreso...which does make sense. In this sense, the Illini are actually pretty good; only the Badgers are allowing less 3-point attempts than Illinois. Michigan averages 23 attempts per game in conference play, and they only put up 16 in the first meeting. Luckily for Michigan, they made 7 of those 16, but I'm not sure that expecting a similar percentage on the road is wise. Even if Michigan wants to throw up 30+ treys--like they have the last two games--I'm not sure that Illinois will even let that happen. This is a little disconcerting, as this means those frenzied chicken-with-its-head-cut-off possessions seem destined for shot clock violations and many other sorts of turnovers. 

• It's simple enough, but Leonard vs. fouls. If Michigan can coax him into a bad foul early--Vogrich's aggressive baseline drive to draw a foul on him comes to mind--then this is going to be another win; period, end of story, Guaransheed it. 

• Good THJ vs. Evil Handlebar Mustache-Wearing 3-Point Attempting THJ. Which one will it be? The rims get a little tighter and less forgiving on the road, so if he wants to be a factor he will need to attack early when it is there. Michigan hitting some early threes will go a long way toward opening up the middle of the floor for some of those horizontal "slice" cuts that he has made a living on (when he's decided to operate in 2-point land). 

Meaningless Prediction 
If not for an 18-point effort from Tyler Griffey off the bench, the Illini would've lost in embarrassing fashion in Ann Arbor. However, as mentioned, I find it hard to believe that Leonard will not get to double digit points this time via FT shooting alone. Weber and his players are in desperation mode, which can turn out to be either really good or really bad for an opponent.

Michigan's disappointing loss against Purdue was like the reopening of a scab covering the old wound known as toomanythreesitis. I know that we shoot threes because this is Ann Arbor and THIS IS WHAT WE DO, but shooting 30+ threes is not a tenable strategy in the short term or in tournament play. When you adjust for home court and a few players' points going way up (Leonard) or way down (Griffey), I think this one shakes out to a nail-biter. As bad as Illinois has been, a close win would be nothing to be ashamed of. For some reason, I'm feeling a Trey Burke shot to put Michigan ahead on Michigan's last possession after a 39+ minutes of back and forth generic Big Ten ball. Michigan 62, Illinois 60.