NIT Season Tip-Off Final Observations: Arizona 72, Duke 66

Fouad Egbaria

For those with unrealistic expectations, Michigan's 5-2 start to the season could be considered a disappointment. However, when tethered to reality and understanding the difficulties of breaking in a new point guard --not to mention replacing a player of Trey Burke's caliber, not to mention Tim Hardaway Jr., who is having a solid start to his NBA career in New York-- then perhaps such a start is not so surprising. 

With that said, if Michigan is planning on entering the Big Dance with a decent seed, they will need to grab a big non-conference win or two before entering what should once again be a brutal Big Ten slate. Fortunately for the Wolverines, Duke and Arizona (and even Stanford, to a lesser extent), present the Wolverines with that opportunity. 

I was lucky enough to attend Friday NIT Tip-Off final between Duke and Arizona at Madison Square Garden, so I figured this would be a good space to kill two birds with one stone with some of my observations on both teams. 

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First, a general outline of the game itself is probably in order. After sitting through the triple overtime Alabama-Drexel game, the first half of Duke-Arizona provided an enormous step up in the speed and level of play. The Blue Devils and Wildcats battled it out in what was an incredibly entertaining first half of basketball, one in which the largest lead was only five (11-6, Duke). 

Duke went into the half up, 36-33, with eight points from Jabari Parker in the half's final five minutes (he finished the first half with 10). Brandon Ashley led the Wildcats at the half with 11 points of his own. 

A Quinn Cook three six minutes into the second half gave Duke a 43-37 lead, its largest of the game. Sitting in MSG, however, you got the sense that if Duke got a stop and scored again, things might start to get out of hand. 

Luckily for Sean Miller U of A squad, a dunk and an Aaron Gordon three a minute later cut the lead to one, and it was back to being the tight game it had been all along. 

The Wildcats kept rolling, rattling of a 12-2 run that eventually gave them a 4-point lead with 8:16 remaining. The pressure was then squarely on Duke's shoulders, but especially Parker's, who had only scored two points in the second half to that point (from the free throw line). 

Rodney Hood, by far Duke's best player on Friday, pitched in an and-1 to cut the lead to one, but the Wildcats kept pushing, this time with an 8-0 run to gain a 57-48 lead, ultimately the knockout punch, with about six and a half minutes to play. 

Hood answered the call again, this time burying a shot from beyond the arc, but Duke couldn't defend the paint, allowing consecutive Arizona dunks. 

Exhibition No. 1: No. 9 Michigan 117, Concordia 44

NB: Just like last season and the season before, most of my basketball writings will go up at Maize n Brew. With that said, I'll still be putting some stuff up here, starting, well, tonight. 
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With Mitch McGary on the bench in street clothes and the Wolverines taking on Concordia, an NAIA squad, in an exhibition contest, the stakes were about as depressed as Eeyore on a bad day.

Then again, it is a sign of the times that someone such as myself, who has always held college football aloft as the apex of amateur athletics, is legitimately excited about such a matchup. The game itself might not have meant anything, but it does mark the beginning of the next installment of the John Beilein era. On the heels of finished runner-up in 2012-13, the Wolverines have several questions to answer before the real question--Can they do it again?--can be addressed in earnest.

The Final Four run has etched itself in the minds of Michigan fans everywhere; once the afterglow of that campaign started to fade, the logical array of questions bubbled to the surface. No Trey Burke? Tim Hardaway Jr.? What about Derrick Walton? Can Mitch McGary, Glenn Robinson III and Caris LeVert take the next step? Can Spike Albrecht run the show full-time? 

And so on. Although the final outcome of these sorts of games is generally immaterial, it is worth watching just to see how various lineup combinations play together, whether the ball is ultimately being scored or not.

Michigan began with a starting five of Albrecht, Robinson III, Jordan Morgan, Jon Horford and Nik Stauskas. At the 16:27 mark, Walton, Max Bielfeldt and LeVert subbed in (Stauskas and Robinson remained in).

It wasn't a particularly great start for Albrecht; he missed an open layup in transition and also turned it over on another possession in which Michigan mostly stood around. He did take a charge down on the block before being subbed out.

Elsewhere, Stauskas started things off with a familiar sight: him driving hard to the rim and going to the line after not quite being able to throw it down. Upon hitting his patented corner three, Stauskas had scored seven of Michigan's first nine points.

Abotu four minutes into Walton's shift, Concordia brought a little full-court pressure. Walton took the ball up the right side, saw two defenders beginning to collapse on him, and left his feet to lob a doomed pass well past No. 21 Zak Irvin. In case you needed reminding, Walton is a true freshman, and he will likely make those sorts of mistakes early on in the season.

Stauskas got into the double-digits in scoring after nailing his second trey of the game, executing a seamless shot fake and one dribble left into an effortless stroke from the the left wing. Level of competition caveats aside, there probably shouldn't be any concerns about the added muscle affecting Stauskas's shot.

Despite not playing a perfectly clean game, the Wolverines jumped out to a 30-9 lead just about 12 minutes into the game, partially aided by nine Concordia turnovers. Stauskas once again put the ball on the floor, taking it from the corner and ripping through challenging defenders into an uncontested layup.

For the sake of history, let it be known that Walton tallied his first points with about 7:12 to go in the half. The freshman buried a three from the left wing, then added two more buckets in the span of about 30 seconds. Shortly thereafter, Walton lasered a no-look pass to a wide open Jordan Morgan under the rim for an easy two and dropped another easy dime to LeVert in transition. After committing a careless turnover earlier, Walton had clearly picked up some confidence during this later stretch in the first half.

Michigan went into the half up 60-19, with an eFG% of 89%. Five Wolverines tallied seven or more points in the first half. Stauskas and LeVert led the way with 12 points apiece. Not that this means anything at all, but Michigan scored at a clip of 1.71 points per possession in the first half (Concordia was at 0.56 PPP).

Also of note, late in the half Beilein rolled out a lineup of LeVert-Stauskas-Morgan-Irvin-GRIII, with LeVert running the point. There have been rumblings about the potential for LeVert to run the show some this season, so perhaps that is the lineup we'll see when he does.

Miscellaneous Minutiae, 10/29/13

Well, here we are: Michigan State week. Hopefully the Wolverines got their rest and ate their Wheaties during the open week, because a win this weekend will take nothing less than their best effort:

• This is old news as if this posting, but tight end A.J. Williams has been suspended for this Saturday's game. Legal ramifications aside, I'm honestly not too sure how big of a loss this is for the Michigan offense. As a blocking tight end, Williams hasn't exactly been a great blocker, and not having Williams at Borges's disposal might curb the desire to run power into the teeth of the Spartan front seven. In any case, Williams's absence means you'll see a lot more Jake Butt and Jordan Paskorz. 

• Minnesota's 35-24 victory over Nebraska this past Saturday was as big of a win as the program has seen in some time. With that said, the Gophers head to Bloomington this weekend, where they'll have to contend with a truly fearsome Hoosier offense. Defense and David Cobb have been enough to carry Minnesota to victory the past two weeks; they'll likely need to make a few more plays through the air if they're going to keep up with Kevin Wilson's offense. 

• Speaking of the Hoosiers, Indiana defensive coordinator Doug Mallory (brother of Michigan secondary coach Curt Mallory) is tuning out the criticism re: his defense's performance. Also at the same link, Tre Roberson might get the start this weekend over Nate Sudfeld. 

• The Only Colors on the Spartan offense potentially approaching "average." 

• The Badgers will need some help if they're going to grab a BCS berth this season, even if they win out. 

• Michigan basketball opens up its exhibition season against Concordia tonight (7 ET). Perhaps it is a sign of the times that I am looking forward to watching this and am even devoting an iota of attention to it during a week leading up to Michigan-Michigan State on the gridiron. Regardless, the only thing worth paying much attention to is the various lineups John Beilein will trot out. If you get the chance to watch, Beilein hopes that you'll get to see a lot of the freshmen out there tonight. 

• Also on the basketball front, as expected, Mitch McGary is out for tonight's exhibition tilt. 

Way Too Early Expectations-o-Meter: Jon Horford

People I've already talked about: Tim Hardaway Jr., Jordan Morgan, Matt Vogrich 

Career To Date 
Jon Horford--brother of Al, son of Tito--committed to Michigan on March 26th of 2010, two weeks after Evan Turner had ended what was a disappointing third season for John Beilein. At the time, Jon was a spindly 6'8'' 200 pound sort, a 3-star recruit. He boasted offers from only Michigan and Providence, according to Rivals; his Scout profile also indicates an Alabama offer. Tim's "Hello" post at MGoBlog from two years ago also notes that he got an offer from Cal and a non-zero level of interest from Michigan State. Needless to say, he didn't have the sort of recruiting hype that his brother did when he enrolled at Florida to play for Billy Donovan. 


That said, Horford brought something that Michigan didn't have much of at all: height. At approximately 6'8'', it seemed like he had a little room to grow even more. He now stands at 6'10'', according to his official profile on MGoBlue. 


There are quite a few interesting (and amusing) observations cited in that Hello post. For example, Dylan of UMHoops: 

But at the end of the day he just doesn’t “wow” you like you would expect a high-major big man to. He got ripped of several rebounds and doesn’t appear to be a tremendous shot blocker, despite being the tallest player on the court. He is very slender from the mid-section down and had to pull up his shorts after about every play. Horford’s shooting form is also screwy and will certainly get some attention once he is playing for a division 1 coach.

This was after lauding his overall mobility, finishing touch, and passing, observations which were echoed by basically every other scout. Even more intriguingly, from the same post: 

His brother Al was solid at the same stage and with hard work, ended up a two-time National Champ and NBA Lottery pick. Jon is on the same path.

This was, however, from December of 2007. As a rising junior, it's clear that Jon probably isn't the same caliber of player as Al was. At the same time, Jon was robbed of a chance to prove himself after an injury last December that caused him to miss the rest of the season (i.e. the entire conference schedule).

So, the recruiting skinny on Horford? Wait for it...he was really skinny (yes, ZING). As a 6'8'' guy weighing somewhere in the neighborhood of 200 pounds, there was literally no way he could compete in the GRITTY and TOUGH Big Ten with those measureables. Since matriculating to Michigan, however, Horford has put in him major time in the weight room, as he is currently listed at 250, which is kind of ridiculous to be honest with you.

His freshman year went about as expected: 6.8 minutes per game, 2 ppg, and 2 rpg. There had been some major cognitive dissonance coming from scouts. He was both a versatile post guy who needed some work in the wight room and a major project type prospect. After his debut season, it was pretty obvious that he was more the latter than the former. That's not to say that we won't get any better, because he very obviously will, it's just that it will take a little bit longer for him to do so.


Last Year
At the beginning of last season, pre-injury, he definitely seemed stronger down low on the boards and on defense. Sure, Michigan's non-conference slate was pretty soft, especially if you're no including the tournament in Maui, but you have to start somewhere.

Sample size issues abound re: Horford's sophomore season, but in the nine games he appeared in, there were signs for optimism. His minutes went up (10.8 mpg) by four, and his field goal percentage (53%, up from 48%), rebounds 3.6 rpg, from 2.0 per), and points per game (2.7 ppg, up from 2.0) all went up accordingly. He was moving well, passing well, and looking like a very useful player off the bench for a team sorely lacking in size. Even shot-blocking, which was noted as a negative for him (i.e. he should be much better at it given his height), became a useful aspect of is game. He blocked 11 shots throughout his entire freshman campaign; last season he swatted 9 shots in only 9 games.

People will remember last year's trip to Maui as the official beginning of the Trey Burke Experience, but looking back, Horford had himself quite the tournament as well. The Memphis and UCLA games were incredibly encouraging performances for him, on both ends of the floor.

Unfortunately, as mentioned, a right foot injury would eventually sideline him for the remainder of the season. Despite intermittent reports that he would possibly make his way back onto the floor, he apparently never quite recovered enough to risk playing him. Eventually, Beilein put the possibility of a  return to rest for good in February.

On the bright side, Horford did not exceed the requisite 30% of games played, making him eligible for a medical redshirt, affording him three more seasons of eligibility.


Things That Were Good
Again, sample size and all that, but Horford's performance in Maui, specifically against Memphis and UCLA, was pretty tremendous. Overshadowed by Trey Burke's surge into the collective college basketball consciousness, Horford dropped the following stat line in 12 minutes against Memphis: 6 points, 6 rebounds, 1 assist, and, most encouragingly, 4 blocks. Given the aforementioned concerns about his shot-blocking ability not matching up to his height, this outing would have perhaps signaled the beginning of the repudiation of that fact (if not for the injury). 


The UCLA game might have been even better. In 19 minutes, a career high, Horford scored 12 points, also recording 7 boards, 3 blocks, and 2 steals. UCLA wasn't very good last year, but it's still a game against a major conference team, and Horford looked surprisingly dominant. There was a lot to be excited about, and perhaps the most notable thing in all of this is that when he went down, he was sorely missed, and it wasn't just because Michigan had lost a guy who happened to be tall. Horford appeared to be on his way to a season of shot-blocking and put backs on the offensive glass. It's difficult to say what sort of impact he would've had on Michigan's season as a whole, but it's safe to say that Michigan could have used him during the conference schedule. 


Things That Were Bad 
There isn't much "bad" to talk about because his season was cut short before we really got to see him play against the best of the Big Ten. If I had to pick something, he was pretty much  non-factor in Michigan's two other big non-conference games against Duke and UVA. In 10 combined minutes from those two contests, he went 0-4 with only 1 rebound and 1 turnover. But, again, sample size applies to the bad as well as the good. 


If Horford Was A Literary Figure 
William James. This one is clearly somewhat of a stretch, as William James wasn't really a literary figure, per se, but...this section in general is somewhat of a stretch, right? Jon, like William, has largely lived in the shadow of his brother William Al, is talented in his own right in spite of the general lack of mainstream recognition. 


Things That Would Be Prettyyy Prettyyy Prettyyy Good 

• Keep swatting. We'll see how much of a shot-blocker McGary is, but as far as known commodities go, Morgan isn't one and neither is Biefeldt (probably). McLimans is used sparingly. As such, Horford represents a significant majority of Michigan's shot-blocking ability. Not to be that guy, but altough I think that shot-blocking is probably the most overrated defensive quality there is, it doesn't hurt to have it at your disposal. Horford flashed the ability to be a legitimate force in the paint against Memphis and UCLA (he also recorded blocks against Iowa State and Oakland). 
• Run the floor. Like Jordan Morgan, Horford's scouting report was replete with observations regarding his mobility for a big guy and his ability to run the floor. Again, for as much as people criticize Wisconsin, Michigan was actually a fairly slow team last year as well, so it's not like Michigan will be running up and down the floor like it's a track meet. That said, if Jon can pick up a bucket or two or sheer force of will by beating his man down the floor, that might be all Michigan needs from him offensively. 
• Develop some sort of shot. Like every Division I recruit that is 6'8''+, Horford put up nice offensive numbers in high school. Scouts noted that he had some solid moves in the low post, and although his arsenal was fairly unpolished and he could be pushed away from the basket, there was clearly some sort of offensive capacity to be chiseled out of that block of marble called potential. Morgan has developed his own niche on the team, running the floor and muscling his way inside to some tough put back points. In lieu of not having a jumper, Morgan has worked on and executed a little jump hook that still isn't perfect but is definitely deployable. Horford needs to start figuring out what his thing is. He hilariously attempted 8 threes as a freshman...although he went 1/8, I'm not sure 

OFFICIAL EXPECTATIONS FOR SOMETHING THAT IS FOUR MONTHS AWAY FROM STARTING
Horford and Morgan are obviously different players with different body types, but a lot of the same verbiage applies for both. Both have room to improve offensively, and by that I don't mean that either can become a regular double digit scorer. Rather, for players like these two, it's important to develop a niche, something that Beilein and the primary scorers can trust in every once in a while. Not unlike hockey, where you have "core" guys and then "secondary" scoring to supplement that top shelf talent, Morgan is without a doubt a secondary scorer. This is admittedly a minor quibble, since what I'm talking about is a short jumper or post move that would be used maybe two or three times a game, if that. 


Otherwise, I would like to see Horford build upon his strong start to last season. Against the better teams on the non-conference schedule, he came to play on both ends of the floor, blocking shots, picking up boards, and putting back bunnies here and there. I'm no doctor, but his foot injury seems like something that could easily be aggravated or re-injured, so Beilein will have to play his minutes by ear early on. Assuming that everything goes according to plan and he remains healthy, I see Horford, like Morgan, having a somewhat imperceptible uptick in his stat line that doesn't quite underscore how much he will have actually improved. 


In short, I think Horford will begin to flash the skill this season that he showed in 9 games last year. How much his stats go up is somewhat immaterial, especially given that the front court has gone from a barren wasteland to verging on, dare I say it...very deep. He's been around for two years now, though, so I don't know that his minutes will go back to what he posted in 2010-11. Something in the neighborhood of 3.0 ppg, 4.0 rpg, and between 1-1.5 blocks per game would be a solid expectation for a player who I think will surprise people this season with what he is capable of doing. 

Way Too Early Basketball Expectations-o-Meter: Tim Hardaway Jr.

I've been following NBA free agency, not with glee or any sort of excitement or optimism, but complete despair. Nay, I am a Bulls fan, a fan of a team team run by a guy gunning for the coveted Fiscal Responsibility Championship as opposed to an actual title that is real and has meaning. The Bulls have almost completely depleted their bench, losing Ronnie Brewer, Kyle Korver, John Lucas III, CJ Watson, and probably Omer Asik. The Bulls will also not bring back Brian Scalabrine, which is a crime almost as grave as Twitter hashtags sullying the Big House's artificial turf. Thus far, the Bulls have replaced the departing "Bench Mob"with Kirk Kinrich (which, as far as FA signings go, is basically like making a sequel of something instead of being creative and coming up with something original), Vladimir Radmonivic, and, it sounds like, Dark Milicic. With Derrick Rose rehabbing from the knee injury sustained during the playoffs and Luol Deng's wrist issues, the Bulls' situation for 2012-13 looks pretty bleak. Hello, lottery. Needless to say, this is not a basketball program to be excited about right now.

This is all a forced segue into something I am, in contrast, very excited about: that something is the 2012-13 University of Michigan basketball squadron. Unlike the Bulls, Beilein's Wolverines should be fairly deep and would seem to have few, if any, glaring weaknesses. They're experienced, talented, and eager to avenge what was a bitter end to the 2011-12 season.

It's been a while since the loss to Ohio (Ohio Ohio), so I've long ago come to terms with it and stopped losing sleep over Beilein deciding to allow Michigan to run the Kobe offense with Trey near the end of that game. It was not fun, but it's over. It was a sour final salvo to what was otherwise an awesome season. Insert your preferred verbiage here about the randomness of a single-elimination format and how it's all going to be okay because it's completely not even about wins or championships, you guys: it's about the game, having fun, and cracking joke about GRIT and TOUGHNESS. Everything else is just gravy.

In light of the stark dichotomy between my expectations vis-a-vis my respective basketball teams, I decided to take a look at what my expectations are for John Beilein's 6th Wolverine team. There's not much going on right now in this dead summer month before fall camp, and literally anything is better than talking about the NCAA's role in the PSU scandal, how the people in charge of college football are big dummies, and how there might not be anymore professional hockey played in 2012.

Since we are still about 7 weeks away from football and fall camp hasn't started yet, this is a good time to run briefly outline some expectations, player by player, for this 2012-13 basketball team. If I end up being right about any of these things, I'm going to turn into Phil Steele and just refer to my JAM-PACKED WITH FACTS correctness when I do these previews before next season.

Today, we'll start with the talented enigma that is THJ.

Career to Date
I'm going to reach back into my cultural worldview here, all the way to the fuzzy time known as "4th grade." Oh yes, I am in fact talking about Pokémon. If Hardaway's freshman season was analogous to Charmander (fire-breathing, a ferocity belying his youth/inexperience), his sophomore season was, naturally, very Charmeleon-esque: an awkward adolescent phase. Now, as we all remember, Charmeleon evolved into Charizard, who was pretty great. If THJ takes the proverbial next step in 2012, we're talking about a Charizardian winger, breathing fire all over the place and inspiring envy in fans of teams who do not have a Charizard card Tim Hardaway Jr. 

Last Year
Again, last year was sort of rough for THJ, one that led to a lot of recalibration when it comes to assessing THJ's abilities and/or future as a Michigan basketball player. Was his torrid freshman 3-point shooting (36.7%) a sort of extended fluke? Well, after shooting 28% last year, you would certainly not be wrong to think along those lines.

Otherwise, THJ's overall FG% remained roughly the same (42%). He averaged 14.6 ppg after dropping 13.9 ppg in 2010-11. He turned the ball over quite a bit more last season (66 turnovers last season vs. 45 during his freshman season). In addition to 3-point shooting, it became painfully obvious that his handles were not quite as crisp or world-destroying as we might have imagined them to be when he was still a freshman and we hadn't had enough time to objectively consider his abilities.

He got to the line more last season (4.4 FTA per game, averaging exactly 1 more attempt per than '10-'11), which was partly--well, mostly--a product of him simply having to create more with Darius Morris wearing purple and gold instead of maize and blue. For all of his abilities, Trey wasn't the facilitator that Morris was, but I'll address that when I get to it.

Things That Were Good 

Well, last season wasn't all bad, obviously. THJ flashed some of that freshman year Kobe-esque gunnery (the good kind, not the I'm going to take a million shots no matter what kind) here and there, although admittedly not as often as one would've liked. After non-conference play had ended, THJ was shooting 33% from 3; not exactly transcendent, but not completely terrible.

Then the wheels fell off during conference play. He went: 1/7 against PSU at home, 0/7 @IU, 0/8 @Iowa, 2/7 @OSU, 2/8 against IU at home, 0/6 @Nebraska, 2/9 @Northwestern...and so on. You get the picture. I realize that I'm not actually talking about good things, which is what this section is supposed to be for.

After Michigan took a weird thumping at home at the hands of a hungry Purdue team (Michigan's only loss at Crisler all year), the Wolverines traveled to Champaign to take on a desperate but dysfunctional Illini team. THJ went out and had the biggest game of his season, dropping 25 points and 11 boards. He was about as efficient as you could possibly be, going 6/7 from the field and a perfect 4/4 from beyond the arc. Additionally, he was a frequent visitor to the charity stripe, where he went 9/10. This is the game you point to from last season to say "why don't you do that all the time?" Of course, it's not that easy (plus, Illinois was sort of terrible).

Things That Were Bad
Well, I already said most of them in the last section, but...THJ had, shall we say, a deep-seated enthusiasm for the bad 3. Early shot clock, heat check, you name it. And, you know, I get it. As a gunner, it's frustrating to keep shooting, to have people tell you to keep shooting, and to know that you can hit from 3 because you did the year before, only to just keep missing and end up with a sub-30% mark on the season.

Other than that, THJ had trouble handling the ball at times. He had a tough time breaking his defenders down on the wing, and seemed to do much better off the ball when making slice cuts to the middle or attacking in transition, which Michigan did not find itself doing all that much as one of the slower teams in the league. Commentators keep joking about how "Daddy could never do that" whenever THJ flashes a bit of athleticism, but if there's one that that Dad has on him, it's a nasty, ankle-incinerating crossover.

 Last but not least, I fully believe that TJ could be a defensive stopper if he wanted to. There were numerous times when his effort didn't seem to be there, or he was simply being lazy with his footwork and focus. One example of a defensive gaffe that comes to mind came at the end of the first Northwestern game, when THJ fouled Alex Marcotullio beyond the 3-point line with Michigan up 3 and the clock just about to run out. Luckily, Marcotullio clanked the first of three attempts, but that sort of mistake just can't happen and is emblematic of THJ's occasional lack of defensive focus.

If THJ Was A Literary Figure. Franz Kafka. Often works in short, streaky bursts of fevered, prolific brilliance. Wildly divergent performance often makes one ask existentialist questions like "why am I a bug?" or "why am I shooting 9 percentage points worse from 3 this year?" Earlier work (The Metamorphosis, second half of the 2010-11 conference slate) is more widely known and praised than later material (The Trial, The Castle, 2011-12 season). His work makes you go both AHHHHH and AHHHHH, one in a good way and one in a very bad, frightening way.


Things That Would Be Prettyyyy Prettyyyy Prettyyyy Good

• Be more efficient. THJ was 31st in the conference in eFG%, putting him in between two Hoosiers in the rankings (Oladipo and Watford). As a junior, you'd think that a hopefully more well-informed shot selection is in the cards. Either way, if Tim's going to be the First Team All-Big Ten that many think he can be, he needs to value the ball a little more. 
• Less turnovers. His turnover percentage is not that awful when you look at it (14.5%), I guess, but it still seemed like THJ carrying the ball into the lane was just about a 50-50 proposition as to whether or not he'd turn it over or draw a foul. We know that Tim (and the rest of the team) has been working hard this offseason, so we can only hope that the offseason competitions and ball-handling drills will have an obvious effect come November. 
• D up. Not much to expand upon here, but I'd like to see THJ bring it a little more consistently on D. He's still arguably Michigan's best athlete (GRIII sounds like his biggest competition in that department), and he has the ability to stick to the conference's best wingers if he wants to. For a guy that can jump like Tim can, it would be nice to see him hit the boards a little harder (he averaged 3.9 per game last year). I think he could make serious hay on the offensive glass; I wonder if Beilein decides to put a greater emphasis on the offensive boards now that Michigan has some depth in the front court? With the added size on the roster, Michigan doesn't need his rebounding as much, but I think he should be able to pick up a few more double doubles this season after notching two of them in 2011-12. 

OFFICIAL EXPECTATIONS FOR SOMETHING THAT'S FOUR MONTHS AWAY 

FROM STARTING 

I think that Tim's offensive output only improves a little bit, but not because he hasn't gotten any better. Michigan simply has more options in the front court, Stauskas and Vogrich will be taking their fair share of triples, and Burke will still be around being all high usage-y and awesome. Tim will also be a little more efficient than he has been, I think. THJ put up just under 15 a game last season, and most people would probably say that his sophomore year was a bit of a disappointment. If anything, that speaks to the somewhat unrealistic expectations that THJ's freshman year created.

As far as post-season recognition goes, I think that THJ is easily Second Team All- Big Ten with only minimal improvement. Otherwise, if he improves as I imagine he will, he will be First Team All-Big Ten this season and the undisputed top shooting guard in the conference (after having moved back from the 3, where he spent most of last season).

Miscellaneous Minutiae, 6/26/2012

Listen up kids. Elvis Grbac has something to tell you (via Wolverine Historian):



Things That That You Already Knew. Sippin' On Purple compiles all the fancy numbers that confirm what we already knew about Northwestern basketball and why it hasn't been able to break through and get that first Big Dance invite:

Northwestern since 2009

Year	Offense	Defense
2009	49	106
2010	33	169
2011	18	121
2012	20	184

Northwestern measures up admirably to the rest of the conference in adjusted offensive efficiency throughout the last four years, coming in 4th (two spots ahead of 6th-ranked Michigan, all Beilein years of course). Defensively, however, is where we find the answers to the many questions Northwestern fans may have about why this thing hasn't found that extra something to propel it to a first ever tourney berth. The Wildcats placed dead last in the conference in adjusted defensive efficiency (Michigan was also middle of the pack here, finishing in 7th).

At this point, Bill Carmody is not exactly an unknown entity: like Beilein, he's an offense-minded coach with a history of deploying the zone on defense, a necessary strategy when your 5 is John Shurna. This likely won't change this upcoming season, which would seem to be a make or break year for Carmody in Evanston.

It will be interesting to track how recent 7'2'' commit Chier Ajou does for NU on the defensive end. Although he is very raw, the best case scenario of his development would provide Northwestern with a viable presence in the paint that has, as far as I know, never been seen in Welsh-Ryan (excepting such players that have worn the other team's colors when playing in that arena). Unfortunately for Carmody, it doesn't seem that Ajou will be a legitimate factor for at least a couple of years, although he will assuredly get playing time by virtue of being really really tall.

 Meanwhile, in West Lafayette. Pre-Snap Read previews Purdue, who falls at the #73 spot in Myerberg's offseason preview series. On the ridiculous QB situation in WL:

All signs point to Purdue again going with a rotation at quarterback. But will it be a two-man rotation or will all three quarterbacks earn snaps in this offense? The Boilermakers would be wise to stick with two – but wiser to go with one full-time starter. One reason why the options should be Marve and TerBush: Henry is the only one of the three who can make an impact in other ways. With not much separating the three, Purdue could shift Henry out to receiver and get him in space, perhaps bringing him into shotgun in certain packages. If fully recovered from last year’s knee injury, the former starter can be a difference-maker if used correctly.

 I have a tendency to whittle various teams' prospects down to a question of how their quarterback will do, but I think that this is especially true in Purdue's case. In spite of the Boilers' anemic offense of late, PU does boast some solid options at the skill positions, namely Antavian Edison at receiver, Akeem Shavers at tailback, and WR/special teams speedster Raheem Mostert.

The defense is of course an issue, and I'm not sure how I feel about new defensive coordinator Tim Tibesar, who came to WL from the CFL. With that said, change was needed on the defensive side of the ball, and Tibesar does have a big time player in Kawann Short to work with up front.

In the end, Hope's 2-year extension through 2016 and last year's bowl appearance lead me to believe that simply appearing in another bowl game this season would constitute a big victory for the Purdue football program. None of the options at QB are particularly exciting, but I think that having the ability to pick one and stick with him will go a long way toward locking up a second straight bowl appearance. I think a six or seven win season is in the cards for Purdue this season. Baby steps.

Tommy Rees still around, working out and such. Tommy Rees is still enrolled and going through summer workouts (see: ALL THE STADIUM STEPS), which would lead one to believe that his status as a ND football player won't be in danger come fall, barring any additional legal missteps.

I only mention this to note that, while it is easy and sometimes funny to make fun of Rees's propensity for turning the ball over in an untimely fashion--are turnovers ever timely?--he was the guy who put up the following stat line on Mattison's defense last season: 27/39, 315 yards, 3 TDs (and 2 INTs). Take out the unforced turnovers and Rees had an excellent game against what turned out to be a top notch Michigan defense. Yes, Michael Floyd is gone and Michigan now has an entire year of game experience in Mattison's defensive system, but still. We are not exactly in a position to scoff at the QB of a team that we were very lucky to beat last year.

I think ND is best served with Rees at the helm early on in the season, in spite of what was a strong spring for Everett Golson. Laugh if you must, but if Rees finds himself booted from the team between now and September for whatever reason, that would be a not insignificant loss and certainly one that would up Michigan's chances of winning in South Bend this September.

 New contracts for basketball assistants Alexander, Meyer, Jordan. Michigan re-upped assistant basketball coaches Bacari Alexander, LaVall Jordan, and Jeff Meyer, who are by all accounts excellent basketball coaches when they are not busy #HALOLing and retweeting motivational quotes.

This is a big deal and a great move for the Michigan program going forward. It's often very easy to attribute all of the success or failure of a program to the head coach and the head coach alone, but I would imagine that Beilein himself would tell you that he couldn't have done any of this alone. In any case, this is good for the continuity of the program and represents one step further away from the athletic department's prior M.O. of extreme stinginess with respect to assistant coaches.

Alexander, particularly, seems like an assistant poised to snag some sort of head coaching job at some point (he's only 35), so this was a smart and probably obvious move for the AD. If you need any more convincing, head to your recruiting outlet of choice and check out how Michigan's recruiting efforts are doing...these guys can recruit, obviously, and you never know how a replacement might do in this crucial aspect of the coaching game.

In this case, it's "mo' money, less problems."

More? BREAKING: Jim Harbaugh is a big meanie per CBS NFL writer Mike Freeman. Okay then.  Andrew Gribble of al.com previews Michigan...a note: I haven't read the comments for this article, but it's generally best to avoid the comment sections at al.com. You've been warned.

Grantland on Royce White's draft prospects vis-a-vis his struggles with anxiety disorder...this is tangentially relevant only because Michigan faced off against White's ISU Cyclones this past season. Still interesting, though.

Miscellaneous Minutiae, 5/30/2012

I'm not talking about realignment, playoff scenarios, or Jim Delany, Mike Slive, Larry Scott, and Dave Brandon this week. It's beyond our control, and although we are sometimes drawn to it like we are to Yahoo/ESPN/etc. comment sections--it's the spectacle, you see--it is not wise (or healthy) to discuss this stuff over and over again. I'm sure I'm going to go against this suggestion several times between now and September 1st, but this week we'll talk about things that aren't completed steeped in the fog of runaway speculation. You know, football...that game that all the hemming and hawing is supposedly about?

"Look at my face: I really really hate bubble screens."

Borges vs. Saban, Part III. We can only hope that the third installment of this series does not go as poorly for Michigan as Godfather III went for the eyeballs of everyone that paid money to see it. In lieu of yesterday's name drop of Borges at the end of the Alabama linebackers preview, this is probably timely re: previous meetings:

Borges also faced Saban twice while at Auburn, and beat him both times -- but it was a struggle to do so.

The first matchup came in 2004, when Saban was still head coach at LSU. Borges' SEC-best offense, which averaged 32.1 points per game, was held to 10 points.

The second meeting came in 2007, Saban's first year at Alabama. Borges won again, but Auburn scored just 17 points, a touchdown off its average of 24.2 points.

So, yeah...Borges "bested" Saban both times, but, really, he didn't. That 2007 Alabama team was Saban's first in Tuscaloosa...the Tide finished 7-6 (4-4) that year. Auburn scored less than every other Alabama conference opponent save Vanderbilt (Mississippi State and Tennessee both also put up 17 on Alabama). Even Louisiana Monroe managed 21 points in what is one of the more forgotten upsets in recent times.

As for the 2004 Auburn-LSU game...I was at the '04 Auburn-UGA game, and I remember these things: 1) Cadillac and Ronnie Brown running all over the place 2) Junior Rosegreen's hit on Reggie Brown and 3) a very, very sad UGA fan sitting in front of me. That Auburn team was simply insane, and Borges would have had to do quite a bit to sabotage that offense. He very nearly did this, as Auburn won that one at Jordan-Hare by the grit-tastic score of 10-9. To be fair, LSU was not bad at all that season: ignoring the Auburn loss, LSU suffered only one other regular season loss (a thumping at the hands of UGA) before going on to lose via Drew Tate Hail Mary in the Citrus Bowl.

I would probably expect a similar result on September 1st (underperformance relative to season-long ppg/yardage trends). That sounds like I'm making some sort of value judgment, but really I'm just confirming that, you know, offenses usually perform worse than they typically do when faced with the best defense on their schedule (news at 11). That's not to say that I think Saban and Smart will be in Borges's head like Professor X, it just seems that Michigan's best chance at winning this one will mirror the 2012 Sugar Bowl "game plan":a little luck, a little non-ironic grit, some bending but not breaking, and did a mention bags of pure luck emblazoned with Jareth Glanda's face instead of the ubiquitous dollar sign? I just don't see Michigan having the ability to put together a lot of long drives, but I would love for Al and the guys to prove me wrong.

Otherwise, Michigan will have to count on some uncharacteristic herpin' and derpin' from the Alabama offense and some young linebackers looking like confused tourists in a foreign land.

Raise your hand if you are surprised by this? I don't why this has fomented such an uproar since this has happened before (see: Gardner, Devin), but oh well. It's just a game, fergodsakes. The scary thing is, no matter how many time people express the aforementioned truism, people that believe otherwise will continue to exist.

For all the perks and benefits that come with being a college football player, it is unfortunate that they must come as part of a package that results in millions of middle-aged maniacs knowing who they are and what they're saying while giving said crazies access to said players via social media and other outlets of creepiness. I suspect that these people have always existed, it's just that social media and the Internet at large have given them an outlet through which to express their unique brand of crazy.

Dear weirdos: get in your car and drive to a little town called Perspective. Nota bene: this town does not exist, anywhere, but I'm hoping that, in tricking you into driving all over the place in search of this fictional town, you may or may not acquire some actual perspective along the way. It's kind of an On The Road for the college football-obsessed crazy person: crazy college football man goes on journey, looking for perspective, man. This version would be infinitely more interesting than the actual book, which does not age like wine and is only good if you are: 1) a teenager or 2) a hipster. ANYWAY.

Lastly: hey there SI headline. What you did there...I see it.

Insert Casablanca quote. Jerry Hinnen takes a look at the over/under win totals for the SEC West, which of course added Texas A&M to the fold (good luck with that, Aggies). I'm not a gambling guy at all, but hey, at least we're talking wins and losses here and not bowl revenues and how Dave Brandon is the worst, you guys. The aforementioned O/Us come via Beyond The Bets, which shows Michigan coming in for an O/U of 9.5, FWIW.

I'd pretty much have to agree with all of those assessments except for Arkansas, who I don't see getting 9 wins in 2012 (O/U 8.5). I would also be surprised if Auburn wins 8+ this season: Brian VanGorder's hair can only do so much, although losing shipping Ted Roof off to Happy Valley is what they call addition by subtraction. As for taking the over on Mississippi State's 7.5...don't know about that one. The momentum built after the Gator Bowl drubbing Mullen and Co. administered to Michigan is largely gone after a disappointing 2011.

Alabama likely does what it couldn't do in 2011, and by that I mean win its own division. I get the feeling that LSU will slip from its 2011 form, but they'll still win at least 10. The question then is who comes in third, which looks to be Arkansas but that whole John L. Smith thing sort of complicates things. Additionally, the Razorbacks have never been strong defensively, and losing Garick McGee--who left to take the HC position at UAB--doesn't help things. It's unlikely that former Buckeye assistant and new Arkansas DC Paul Haynes will be able to do enough to turn things around there in his first year.

For some reason, I'm envisioning a 2007 scenario unfolding in the SECW this year, where the champion (Alabama, this year) has two losses and the rest of the division is a mass of mediocrity after the second place team (LSU, in my opinion). Can Alabama make the national title game this year with two conference losses like LSU did in 2007? I don't know, but even imagining the possibility, especially after what Alabama pulled off last year, makes me shudder a bit.

Spike Albrecht. Via UMHoops, Joe Stapleton continues the "Getting to Know" series with Spike, who might be the lone thing separating Trey Burke from spontaneously combusting at some point halfway through the B1G schedule. This isn't news or anything, but it's still kind of amazing that Albrecht put on 20 pounds last summer and is still only 165. Dear Spike: please head to your nearest Cottage Inn location. Related concerns:

I never really played AAU, and AAU is big nowadays. But when you’re 5-foot-11, 150 pounds, I mean, I’m gonna get killed out there, so I was never able to do AAU. But for me, I think it was a blessing in disguise because I was just going to get hurt if I’d have played AAU.

The B1G, among other stereotypes, is a little bit more physical than AAU ball. With all due respect to Spike, I'm still feeling fairly uneasy about what Trey's work load might look like in 2012-13. Beilein has also publicly expressed these obvious concerns, but when push comes to shove most coaches will choose running their stars down to a nub if it means putting in a guy like Carlton Brundidge or Eso Akunne, (i.e. guys who are clearly not adequate collegiate ball-handlers). I sincerely hope that Spike does well, pitching in anywhere between 4-7 minutes a game, but I'm not that confident that he'll be able to give Trey all that much more rest than he got last season. This is yet another "I will gladly have you prove me wrong" scenario.

More? Didn't get a chance to read this Weinreb piece on Notre Dame until yesterday...nothing too world-shattering, but I have to admit that I actually laughed out loud at the ND alumnus's question because of how much it reminds me of the fact that ND is just a Catholic version of Michigan. Clearly, 2012 is the year of the LSU Tiger Shrimps. Maize n Brew kicks off Northwestern preview week.

Miscellaneous Minutiae, 4/4/2012

Back from a bit of a break. That noise you hear? Oh, that's just FOOTBALL. Adieu, hockey and basketball...it's time for football. Sort of. 
Self-Promotion, Still Shameless: Check out Maize n Brew later today for some basketball talk from me re: how the offense will look decidedly un-Beilein-like going forward. Basically, I suggest that Michigan basketball will look a lot like this:

Let's hope Michigan can bring a little more defensive intensity than that. "THE BALL'S IN HIS SHIRT NOOO WHAT ARE YOU DOING."-Person that takes AND1 basketball way too seriously

Footbaw Talk Is Positively Gorgeous: Al Borges sat down with Howard Griffith and talked real, live footbaw. If this sentence excited you the same way that it did me, then: a) you have a problem and b) it's probably early April.

The two issues to address in the passing game re: Denard are footwork and "second decision making." Al makes even relatively simple concepts like, say, making decisions, sound really cool. He then goes on to break down two plays, the first being that interception against Purdue, an intermediate dig route to Roundtree against Iowa, and the long completion to Gallon on Michigan's late game drive against Notre Dame. You would think that these are relatively simple plays, but I was hoping there'd be more at the end of the video. Alas, it's only five minutes long, but it does give you just enough to ward off the pangs of football withdrawal for a little while.

In any case, the Purdue interception, in particular, is the sort of play that Denard simply cannot make going forward. Given that this will be year 2 in the system, I feel pretty good about not only this sort of play being eliminated from Denard's game, but turnovers in general. Footwork is doubly difficult for mobile QBs like Denard; happy feet leads to interceptions, missed receivers, and other unfortunate happenings. Denard's feet vis-a-vis the passing game (i.e. getting the appropriate depth in his drops, not getting happy feet, not throwing off the back foot, etc.) are arguably more important than the role, in, well, running the ball. Al was not perfect in 2011, but it's hard to feel anything but comfort going forward. Now if we could only just get him to officially become enamored with the concept of continuing to recruit mobile types (of course, very few will be as fast as Denard, if any even exist) for the QB position, things would be just perfect.

Terms to add to your Michigan football lexicon: "steal his eyes" (defender reading the QB's eyes) and "gettin' in the fight" (in reference stepping up in the pocket through the lanes created by the outside rushers).

Diamond in the Rough: Nick Baumgardner's article on GRIII's skyrocketing recruiting hype is another thing to file under "Beilein is a ridiculous talent evaluator" file. According to GRIII himself:

"Those guys believed in me before anyone else really did, and that means a lot," Robinson said.

And also:

"I believe some schools look too much into what a player is right now, and not what their potential could be. Michigan did a great job with that, though, and that's what I really liked about them."

 So, there you go. GRIII has seen his stock rise from "fringe high-major" level to the #28 player in the country according to Scout, making him a just-about-5-star prospect. That is an incredible jump, but if anybody would've been able to predict that sort of spike, it's John Beilein. As much hype as Mitch McGary has gotten (and as much under-the-radar indie hype as Stauskas has gotten), GRIII is the guy from this class that I'm most excited about. He's the athletic dynamo of a winger that elite teams usually have at least a couple of...I imagine his outside game will need a little work, but he will contribute significantly no matter what.

Outside of the article's recruiting slant and GRIII's using not making the McDonald's All-American team as motivation to get better, the article references the fact GRIII was told by the staff that he'd play both the 2 and the 3, and not the 3/4 as was previously expected. I don't normally get too caught up in the numerical designations, but I though it was interesting. Then again, it's entirely possible that this quote was based on information that preceded the news of Smotrycz's departure; in light of that, it's possible that GRIII will still see some time at the 4, although I really sort of hope not. This of course leaves the conundrum of having both GRIII and THJ at the 3, and you'd really like to have both on the court at the same time. If THJ can seriously refine his handle and outside shooting this offseason, then you can pencil GRIII in for a starting spot. Otherwise, I think we're probably looking at Burke-Stauskas-THJ-Morgan-McGary, which is just fine.

Losing Smotrycz, Novak, and Douglass is unfortunate, but I think the future is still bright.

Meanwhile, in Alabama: [Insert Shutdown Fullback's "pig running across a football field" animation]

On a serious note, 2012 signee Dalvin Tomlinson sustained what is termed a "serious" knee injury. Tomlinson is 6'3'' 270. Care to guess how he hurt his knee? If you guessed "soccer," well, you must actually live in the Yellowhammer State, otherwise you'd be inclined to believe that soccer has long since been banned by the Alabama State Legislature.

I'm not completely sure where he fits in the Bama 2-deep at this point in time, but odds are he would have at least been a contributor, even with Australian manbearpig Jessie Williams officially moving to defensive tackle after spending last year as a RVB-esque DT/DE. In any case, it seems a little fishy that he says he'll be "over it" by the time the season starts. Assuming it's an ACL injury, the common wisdom is that that sort of thing takes about six months, which would see the last month of his recovery begin in September. Of course, this last sentence was rampant speculation, so who knows.

Of course, since people are horrible, I must state the obvious: all injuries, suffered by anybody and no matter for what team, are unfortunate. Anyone that roots for an opponent to get injured should be forced to watch the 2008 Northwestern game on loop in a dark room with their eyelids taped open. With that said, this is something to monitor as we get closer to September 1st, as Alabama has already lost a significant amount of defensive talent to the NFL.

More? Andy Katz has Michigan at #8 in his early top 25...yeah, try not to think about 2009 (you can't). Excellent recruiting stuff from UMHoops, as always. Spring practice notes from Tuscaloosa; nothing too exciting. Dudes are nursing injuries, the O-linemen are getting used to lining up next to new faces. Spring football, yeah!

Michigan-Ohio: The End

Michigan 60, Ohio 65

(Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) 

Trying to make sense of the NCAA Tournament is like trying to count the grains of sand on a beach. Once you've made what you believe to be a certain amount of progress--you've counted each and every singular grain in your hand--the tide comes in, obliterating everything, weakening your assertion by introducing something entirely new to your worldview. Upsets happen all the time; it is the ordered disorder of this entire thing, a relatively brief spectacle that can either build upon or utterly destroy the five-month slog that precedes it. How upset you should be after this is a product of your pre-conceived notions of Michigan's abilities relative to college basketball as a whole, the somewhat distorting effect of a shared conference title, and most importantly, to what extent you think Michigan "overachieved." For what it's worth, overachieving is not really a word I have any use for, generally, but in any case I think it's misapplied with respect to Michigan, anyway. Optimally/maximally achieving? Yes, I would agree with that. You can expect that people who call others in life overachievers probably look something like this:

Some of the following might sound overly negative or critical of the team and Beilein and the program's General Direction, but I want to make it clear that that is not my intention at all. Anybody that has any complaints about Beilein and the program on a macro level (i.e., not regarding things like his 2-foul strategy and other little strategic issues) is quite frankly an idiot and not somebody worth the time. The future is very bright. 

Michigan was somewhat of a victim of its own success in a way that actually hurt it come tourney time. Over-achieving is only a relevant descriptor if attached to the notion that "Michigan wound up with a 3-seed, an achievement that exceeded our own personal expectations" rather than "Michigan quite literally did things it was not/should not have been capable of doing with regularity." The thing is, you perceiving any sort of ceiling, with respect to individual players or a team as a whole, is based solely upon your likely misinformed notions, and so "overachieving" is a physical impossibility. Not coincidentally, "giving 110%" is also a stupid turn of phrase. You achieve what you can achieve but what you do achieve. It exists in a stasis universe, free from the warping free radicals that are your expectations and perceptions of how things should be. 

Michigan just finished a season in which it never lost consecutive games (until the very end, obviously) en route to a 13-5 conference record and a share of the regular season title. The problem is, when Michigan lost, they lost. Each defeat was an increasingly redundant episode in a series of autopsies; his low Offensive Rebounding Percentage, Inconsistent Perimeter Shooting, and lack of athleticism, yes, that's what got him in the end. Well, we knew that, Doc. Why are you surprised, then? After the initial, visceral reaction, after coming to grips with being on the losing end of the ever shameful tournament "upset," could we honestly say that this wasn't a distinct possibility? 

Of course not. At this point, Michigan is basically a mid-major that happens to be in a major conference. That's not meant to sound like an insult, but, rather, a statement of where Michigan was this season, physically, depth-wise, and talent-wise. That will change next season, when Michigan will go from having Morgan and Smotrycz as its only "bigs" to a roster that is overflowing with front court options and size up and down the roster, generally. McGary, GRIII, Stauskas, Biefeldt, and Horford are all essentially being added to the fold next year (the first three will of course be freshman, Biefeldt is coming off a redshirt year, and Horford will return from an injury that kept him out for most of this season), and with every meaningful contributor outside of the two seniors returning, the fundamental problems that persistently loomed whenever Michigan went scoreless for extended periods of time or couldn't end a defensive possession on the glass will probably cease to persist. Michigan will undergo a wholesale genetic transformation next year, and the feeling that Michigan's potential success is a largely fragile, tenuous thing--like two people capably throwing an egg to one another from thirty yards apart without breaking it--should by and large fade away, as should the feeling that Michigan is phenotypically mid-major in every way while simultaneously carrying the genotype of a major conference. 

As Michigan battled back, there was a point where I thought that this might not have been an upset at all. Ohio was the more athletic, aggressive team throughout the contest. Burke et al looked like they had bricks tied to their ankles; tired, slow, athletically deficient. Some have argued that Ohio had the two best players on the floor, and while I'm not sure that that is the case, it is one that can be cogently argued. 

The fact that Beilein was able to make this work in the Big Ten with a squad that could, in all honesty, be less talented than the MAC champion, is truly a wonder. Unfortunately, Beilein can only conjure up so many acts of tactical sorcery before the cruel physical realities of Michigan's roster catch up to them. Via Beilein's tactical brilliance and Trey Burke being Michigan won many more games than it lost this season, but, in the Big Dance, it only takes one. Michigan's style of play lends itself to having that "one" play out at any time, whether against a maniacally fast Arkansas team on the road, top-to-bottom talented squads like OSU and MSU, or in the first round against a 13-seed from the MAC. 

-----------------------------------------------------------

A couple days have passed and the sting of a season cut short in this way has long subsided. Consider an alternate reality in which Michigan loses the Sugar Bowl in OT: the Coale catch is called a touchdown and Michigan is subsequently unable to move the ball, as had been the case all game. This reality would have been a sour one, but it wouldn't have completely wiped away the twelve games that came before, and, for the seniors, long careers full of memories of moments of brilliance that transcend any piece of paper on which records are written and stats recorded. I assume that most Michigan fans feels the same about this. 

Well, as much of a cop-out as it may seem, I mostly feel the same way about this. This season has been incredibly fun. Back when Zack and Stu were freshmen, Michigan basketball was truly fun for the first time in a long time, and this year was like that drawn to its logical end. The tournament in Maui (in which we got our first glimpses of what Trey Burke could do), the first Northwestern game, Purdue on the road, beating the Spartans at home, Jordan Morgan outplaying Jared Sullinger, the second Northwestern game, the Minnesota game last Friday, and so many other memories...linger. One loss does not incinerate all of that. As much as I still feel we were capable of making a run to the Sweet 16 and being a tough out for a team like UNC, it wasn't the reality that came to be. The fact that people often fill out multiple brackets--sometimes even six, or seven, or more, even--is demonstrative of the fact that this crazy tournament is simply a royal rumble between a nearly infinite set of permutations, one of which becomes the tournament that we actually come to watch. This permutation saw Michigan lose in the first round; so it goes. 

If there's any reason for any disappointment to persist, it's for the fact that Zack and Stu could not go out on better terms. In January, the football team showed us that sometimes a cosmic payoff awaits at the end of a long, difficult journey. The basketball team, on Friday, showed that the aforementioned is just quixotic gibberish, or, at minimum, doesn't represent the rule. 

It hurts that, in the process of losing, Michigan's constitutional flaws were regularly manifested by Stu's and Zack's play. It hurts that, as we entered the second half, many were calling for Zack to eat bench while Smotrycz played the 4 in his stead. It hurt that, late in the game--I don't remember exactly when--the ball was kicked to Zack in the corner, standing there, open for a brief second. He hesitated and didn't take the shot that he had made many times before. Several minutes prior, I thought: I'm going to laugh when Zack comes in late in this game and hits a big shot to give Michigan the win, and everything else will be forgotten and words like GRIT will be bandied about facetiously. It didn't happen. 

There will be a time to be excited about next year's reinforcements and what they bring relative to the departing seniors, about how the coming season decidedly won't be like the disappointing post-Lee & Merritt 2009-10 season. That time is not now. I've said more than a word about the seniors's contributions and what they have meant to this program. In spite of this game and their limitations as players, they have laid the groundwork for Michigan's future success. Without Zack and Stu, there is no McGary, GRIII, Stauskas, etc in a Michigan uniform. The ending did not befit the journey, but wasn't the journey fun? 

Miscellaneous Bullets: 

• Trey Burke and the pick and roll. As a basketball play, I'm not the biggest fan in the world of the pick and roll. Part of this is due to the fact that my high school team played a strict brand of basketball straight out of Hoosiers: straight man-to-man, 4 passes, so on and so forth. This offense did not include any ball screens, and much of my bias against them thus stems from that experience. In addition, many teams, in college and the pros alike (moreso the latter) have "offenses" that essentially consist of the P&R and, you know, aimless dribbling. It's gotten to the point that analysts refer to things like "the pick and roll" offense, and I sort of just shake my head a little bit. These kids and their crazy music and their ball screens! With these GET OFF MY LAWN points out of the way, there's no denying that it is a dangerous and easy to employ basketball play if you have a PG like Trey and a guy like Smotrycz that can pop out or a mobile guy like Morgan that can roll downhill with speed and then thunder dunk in your face. With that said, the word is out: hedge hard and odds are Burke won't be able to handle it. Maybe an added 5-10 pounds in the offseason is in order? Also, HE IS A FRESHMAN...this has been said a billion times already and that isn't even enough. 

• Threes, Threes, Threes. Michigan had brought the deficit to 3 before firing off a series of unnecessary 3s. I'm not sure why any defender is ever fooled by this, but when Trey has the ball up top it's pretty obvious when he's going to give it token dribble and a shimmy or two before jacking up a three. It's obvious the first time and it's definitely obvious the third or fourth time. I sort of have to wonder whether this was by design or if Trey was just sort of in gunslinger mode; the former would be on Beilein and would clearly be the more disappointing of the two options. I would have liked to see have seen us try something different on one of those possessions, but, as they say, it's in the past. It didn't seem like we were really running much of anything near the end, probably because we weren't running anything. I'm kind of dancing around it, but yeah, the offensive strategy at the end of this game--rather, the lack thereof--is on Beilein. 

• Nothing Left. I know that it's been a long season, but it's somewhat curious that a lot of the guys just looked like their legs were completely dead. You would think that having almost a week to rest up for this game would've seen them coming out strong, but the same thing occurred during the Minnesota game in the BTT coming off of the regular season finale. Then again, you can only play with essentially 6--7 if we're counting Vogrich--for so long before the minutes start to seriously add up. 

• Not Hangin' With Mr. Cooper. Brian sure was right about Cooper. He took a couple shots that made me go "wow, is he really taking that shot?" You know those threes several feet behind the arc that Stu will take on occasion? Yeah, DJ Cooper shoots those ALL THE TIME with aplomb. It's not like this wasn't in the scouting report; we knew that there has never been a shot he didn't like or thought he couldn't make. It's just frustrating that a guy who shoots 35% from the field (31.6% from 3) was able to fill it up in the manner that he did. There was a defensive breakdown or two on our part but most of his shots were just "pro shots," as Dylan put it. I would've liked to see more Stu on him rather than Trey, but oh well. 

• Jordan Morgan. Despite the prominent deficiencies in his game, Jordan Morgan has dunked his way into my top 10 favorite Michigan basketball players. With that said, he absolutely needs to add something to his offensive arsenal--something that he can be comfortable doing a few times a game and not once or twice a month maybe--that can take the pressure off of the perimeter guys. With McGary coming in this becomes less urgent, but I don't think an 8-10 foot jumper is too much to ask for. Morgan has his struggles (even against a MAC team like Ohio) because he doesn't have above average athleticism, and while his footwork got him to a the basket a couple of times in this game, it could have been deemed "awkward" at best. Going forward, I think this awkward routine around the basket can be avoided if JMo can develop confidence in a short jumper in put back situations. It seems unlikely now, but remember when Zack and Stu pretty much couldn't do anything at all off the dribble? A short-mid range jumper would be JMo's equivalent "skill that gradually improves and becomes a legitimate tool as an upperclassman."