Way Too Early Expectations-o-Meter: Jon Horford

People I've already talked about: Tim Hardaway Jr., Jordan Morgan, Matt Vogrich 

Career To Date 
Jon Horford--brother of Al, son of Tito--committed to Michigan on March 26th of 2010, two weeks after Evan Turner had ended what was a disappointing third season for John Beilein. At the time, Jon was a spindly 6'8'' 200 pound sort, a 3-star recruit. He boasted offers from only Michigan and Providence, according to Rivals; his Scout profile also indicates an Alabama offer. Tim's "Hello" post at MGoBlog from two years ago also notes that he got an offer from Cal and a non-zero level of interest from Michigan State. Needless to say, he didn't have the sort of recruiting hype that his brother did when he enrolled at Florida to play for Billy Donovan. 


That said, Horford brought something that Michigan didn't have much of at all: height. At approximately 6'8'', it seemed like he had a little room to grow even more. He now stands at 6'10'', according to his official profile on MGoBlue. 


There are quite a few interesting (and amusing) observations cited in that Hello post. For example, Dylan of UMHoops: 

But at the end of the day he just doesn’t “wow” you like you would expect a high-major big man to. He got ripped of several rebounds and doesn’t appear to be a tremendous shot blocker, despite being the tallest player on the court. He is very slender from the mid-section down and had to pull up his shorts after about every play. Horford’s shooting form is also screwy and will certainly get some attention once he is playing for a division 1 coach.

This was after lauding his overall mobility, finishing touch, and passing, observations which were echoed by basically every other scout. Even more intriguingly, from the same post: 

His brother Al was solid at the same stage and with hard work, ended up a two-time National Champ and NBA Lottery pick. Jon is on the same path.

This was, however, from December of 2007. As a rising junior, it's clear that Jon probably isn't the same caliber of player as Al was. At the same time, Jon was robbed of a chance to prove himself after an injury last December that caused him to miss the rest of the season (i.e. the entire conference schedule).

So, the recruiting skinny on Horford? Wait for it...he was really skinny (yes, ZING). As a 6'8'' guy weighing somewhere in the neighborhood of 200 pounds, there was literally no way he could compete in the GRITTY and TOUGH Big Ten with those measureables. Since matriculating to Michigan, however, Horford has put in him major time in the weight room, as he is currently listed at 250, which is kind of ridiculous to be honest with you.

His freshman year went about as expected: 6.8 minutes per game, 2 ppg, and 2 rpg. There had been some major cognitive dissonance coming from scouts. He was both a versatile post guy who needed some work in the wight room and a major project type prospect. After his debut season, it was pretty obvious that he was more the latter than the former. That's not to say that we won't get any better, because he very obviously will, it's just that it will take a little bit longer for him to do so.


Last Year
At the beginning of last season, pre-injury, he definitely seemed stronger down low on the boards and on defense. Sure, Michigan's non-conference slate was pretty soft, especially if you're no including the tournament in Maui, but you have to start somewhere.

Sample size issues abound re: Horford's sophomore season, but in the nine games he appeared in, there were signs for optimism. His minutes went up (10.8 mpg) by four, and his field goal percentage (53%, up from 48%), rebounds 3.6 rpg, from 2.0 per), and points per game (2.7 ppg, up from 2.0) all went up accordingly. He was moving well, passing well, and looking like a very useful player off the bench for a team sorely lacking in size. Even shot-blocking, which was noted as a negative for him (i.e. he should be much better at it given his height), became a useful aspect of is game. He blocked 11 shots throughout his entire freshman campaign; last season he swatted 9 shots in only 9 games.

People will remember last year's trip to Maui as the official beginning of the Trey Burke Experience, but looking back, Horford had himself quite the tournament as well. The Memphis and UCLA games were incredibly encouraging performances for him, on both ends of the floor.

Unfortunately, as mentioned, a right foot injury would eventually sideline him for the remainder of the season. Despite intermittent reports that he would possibly make his way back onto the floor, he apparently never quite recovered enough to risk playing him. Eventually, Beilein put the possibility of a  return to rest for good in February.

On the bright side, Horford did not exceed the requisite 30% of games played, making him eligible for a medical redshirt, affording him three more seasons of eligibility.


Things That Were Good
Again, sample size and all that, but Horford's performance in Maui, specifically against Memphis and UCLA, was pretty tremendous. Overshadowed by Trey Burke's surge into the collective college basketball consciousness, Horford dropped the following stat line in 12 minutes against Memphis: 6 points, 6 rebounds, 1 assist, and, most encouragingly, 4 blocks. Given the aforementioned concerns about his shot-blocking ability not matching up to his height, this outing would have perhaps signaled the beginning of the repudiation of that fact (if not for the injury). 


The UCLA game might have been even better. In 19 minutes, a career high, Horford scored 12 points, also recording 7 boards, 3 blocks, and 2 steals. UCLA wasn't very good last year, but it's still a game against a major conference team, and Horford looked surprisingly dominant. There was a lot to be excited about, and perhaps the most notable thing in all of this is that when he went down, he was sorely missed, and it wasn't just because Michigan had lost a guy who happened to be tall. Horford appeared to be on his way to a season of shot-blocking and put backs on the offensive glass. It's difficult to say what sort of impact he would've had on Michigan's season as a whole, but it's safe to say that Michigan could have used him during the conference schedule. 


Things That Were Bad 
There isn't much "bad" to talk about because his season was cut short before we really got to see him play against the best of the Big Ten. If I had to pick something, he was pretty much  non-factor in Michigan's two other big non-conference games against Duke and UVA. In 10 combined minutes from those two contests, he went 0-4 with only 1 rebound and 1 turnover. But, again, sample size applies to the bad as well as the good. 


If Horford Was A Literary Figure 
William James. This one is clearly somewhat of a stretch, as William James wasn't really a literary figure, per se, but...this section in general is somewhat of a stretch, right? Jon, like William, has largely lived in the shadow of his brother William Al, is talented in his own right in spite of the general lack of mainstream recognition. 


Things That Would Be Prettyyy Prettyyy Prettyyy Good 

• Keep swatting. We'll see how much of a shot-blocker McGary is, but as far as known commodities go, Morgan isn't one and neither is Biefeldt (probably). McLimans is used sparingly. As such, Horford represents a significant majority of Michigan's shot-blocking ability. Not to be that guy, but altough I think that shot-blocking is probably the most overrated defensive quality there is, it doesn't hurt to have it at your disposal. Horford flashed the ability to be a legitimate force in the paint against Memphis and UCLA (he also recorded blocks against Iowa State and Oakland). 
• Run the floor. Like Jordan Morgan, Horford's scouting report was replete with observations regarding his mobility for a big guy and his ability to run the floor. Again, for as much as people criticize Wisconsin, Michigan was actually a fairly slow team last year as well, so it's not like Michigan will be running up and down the floor like it's a track meet. That said, if Jon can pick up a bucket or two or sheer force of will by beating his man down the floor, that might be all Michigan needs from him offensively. 
• Develop some sort of shot. Like every Division I recruit that is 6'8''+, Horford put up nice offensive numbers in high school. Scouts noted that he had some solid moves in the low post, and although his arsenal was fairly unpolished and he could be pushed away from the basket, there was clearly some sort of offensive capacity to be chiseled out of that block of marble called potential. Morgan has developed his own niche on the team, running the floor and muscling his way inside to some tough put back points. In lieu of not having a jumper, Morgan has worked on and executed a little jump hook that still isn't perfect but is definitely deployable. Horford needs to start figuring out what his thing is. He hilariously attempted 8 threes as a freshman...although he went 1/8, I'm not sure 

OFFICIAL EXPECTATIONS FOR SOMETHING THAT IS FOUR MONTHS AWAY FROM STARTING
Horford and Morgan are obviously different players with different body types, but a lot of the same verbiage applies for both. Both have room to improve offensively, and by that I don't mean that either can become a regular double digit scorer. Rather, for players like these two, it's important to develop a niche, something that Beilein and the primary scorers can trust in every once in a while. Not unlike hockey, where you have "core" guys and then "secondary" scoring to supplement that top shelf talent, Morgan is without a doubt a secondary scorer. This is admittedly a minor quibble, since what I'm talking about is a short jumper or post move that would be used maybe two or three times a game, if that. 


Otherwise, I would like to see Horford build upon his strong start to last season. Against the better teams on the non-conference schedule, he came to play on both ends of the floor, blocking shots, picking up boards, and putting back bunnies here and there. I'm no doctor, but his foot injury seems like something that could easily be aggravated or re-injured, so Beilein will have to play his minutes by ear early on. Assuming that everything goes according to plan and he remains healthy, I see Horford, like Morgan, having a somewhat imperceptible uptick in his stat line that doesn't quite underscore how much he will have actually improved. 


In short, I think Horford will begin to flash the skill this season that he showed in 9 games last year. How much his stats go up is somewhat immaterial, especially given that the front court has gone from a barren wasteland to verging on, dare I say it...very deep. He's been around for two years now, though, so I don't know that his minutes will go back to what he posted in 2010-11. Something in the neighborhood of 3.0 ppg, 4.0 rpg, and between 1-1.5 blocks per game would be a solid expectation for a player who I think will surprise people this season with what he is capable of doing. 

Way Too Early Expectations-o-Meter: Matt Vogrich

People I've already talked about: Tim Hardaway Jr., Jordan Morgan

Today we shift back to the back court, to the offensively one-dimensional yet sneakily grit-tastic Matt Vogrich, the pride of Lake Forest, IL (sorry Tommy Rees).

NB: I didn't think of this until now, but I'm probably just going to do these previews for guys that are returning from last year. Of course, the 2012 class will be major contributors, especially given the turnover that Michigan has had (losing Novak and Douglass to graduation and also losing Smotrycz, Brundidge, and Christian to more playing time elsewhere). With that said, a "preview" post for Mitch McGary et al would just end up being a useless collection of Rivals/Scout links and pointless highlight videos. There's no point in wasting your time on redundancies like that so let's just keep talking about players we are already familiar with and can speak out with some level of authority.

GRIT. 

Career To Date 
I feel like I say this all the time, but man I cannot believe Matt Vogrich is a senior. Actually, I'm fairly certain that I say this every time I talk about a senior player in any of the Michigan sports I follow closely: once you find yourself saying this on the reg, you have proof positive that you are getting old. As we all know, time speeds along faster and faster the older you get, which I guess is a good thing if you're trying to get through the horrid thing we call The Offseason (that's right, it merits capitalization).

To be honest, Vogrich's recruitment at this point is a vague thing to me, so I checked his Rivals profile and was somewhat surprised to see some of the schools on his offer list. He was a generic 3-star, the type of 3-point gunner that John Beilein craves like plants crave Brawndo. It's science. Other than Michigan, Vogrich received offers from basketball names like Notre Dame, Wake Forest, Baylor, Georgia Tech, and Stanford, among several other lower level offers. So, it's not like he was just some guy like Zack Novak, whose second best offer after Michigan came from Valparaiso.

As a high schooler, Vogrich averaged 16.7 points and 6.5 rebounds per game, which is also somewhat surprising given the fact that his offensive game at the college level hasn't materialized much at all yet thus far. Obviously, he came in with the hype of a deadly shooter from outside, but you don't average those numbers without being able to do a little more than shoot the three. Of course, high school is a different game: even the college spot up shooter can do some things on the bounce.

As a freshman, Vogrich played only sparingly, averaging 5.5 minutes per game. During the 2009-10 season, however, he did shoot 39% from beyond the arc, lending credence to the notion that he could in fact be the Mike Gansey-esque gunner specialist that Beilein had been searching for. In 2010-11, Vogrich nearly tripled his minutes, averaging 14 per game while also shooting 39% from 3 yet again. He even upped his percentage from the field overall, going from 40.5% to 42.9% from his freshman to his sophomore year.

We knew that Vogrich would be coming off the bench likely throughout his entire career, so expectations at that juncture--after his sophomore year, that is--were fairly reasonable. He would come off the bench and take a few shots, hit a couple threes, and contribute some general grit. He displayed a surprising ability to pick up rebounds despite only being 6'4'' and not much of an athlete, a facet of his game which inspired me to dub him Diet Novak last season.

Then the 2011-12 season happened, leaving us with some questions about what to reasonably expect out of Matt Vogrich.


Last Year 
In light of his 3-point shooting percentages during his first two seasons in Ann Arbor, it would not be unreasonable to posit that his performance from 3 last season was somewhat of an anomaly. Vogrich's percentage took a nosedive, dipping all the way down to 30%, a number which would be below average for a guy who is not a 3-point specialist, let alone for a guy who ostensibly is one.

With that said, his minutes also took a bit of a nosedive, going from the aforementioned 14 per game to 10.7 per last season. It might seem like an insignificant difference, but for a guy like Vogrich, this sort of decline in deployment means the world. It goes without saying that a guy whose offensive game depends almost entirely on the 3 will suffer when he doesn't see the floor a much.

As a Chicago Bulls fan, I saw the same sort of thing play out with a much better 3-point shooter in Kyle Korver. Korver, despite shooting an excellent 43.5% last season, often had off nights. Given the Bulls' prowess on the offensive glass, I distinctly remember several possessions during which Korver would clank a 3, only to get a second chance after an offensive rebound only to clank another one. Korver was also a defensive liability, so when the 3s didn't fall, his presence on the court became a net negative. This, in short, is the plight of the 3-point specialist. When the so called "rhythm" that commentators allude to so often isn't there--a notion which is generally directly correlated to playing time--the specialist becomes someone that you don't want on the court. It essentially becomes a situation where you are playing 4 on 5 when that person is on the floor.

The same could be said for Vogrich last season. We have already seen him shoot the 3 in a way that would make Rick James from Dave Chappelle's E True Hollywood Story sketch blush. However, in limited minutes last season, he would often get on the floor, miss his only one or two threes, and that would be it.


Things That Were Good 
Of course, things weren't all bad for Vogrich last season. Against Arkansas-Pine Bluff, he dropped 11 points on 4-7 shooting (3-5 from 3). In only 11 minutes at Nebraska, he scored 9 points on 3-4 shooting from beyond the arc, a game which could have potentially been close if did not pitch in in the way that he did.

In a big home win against Illinois, Vogrich put up 8 points on 3-3 shooting (2-2 from 3); Michigan won that game by 9, FWIW.

In Michigan's second thrilling OT victory against Northwestern, Vogrich put up 9 points on 3-6 from 3, an obviously important game for him, played less than an hour away from his hometown of Lake Forest. He hit two big threes in the early going to held build Michigan's lead (which was of course squandered by halftime), and then hit a third to put Michigan up by 1 with just under 9 minutes to go. It's easy to forget such contribution on a team headlined by guys like Tim Hardaway Jr. and Trey Burke, but these subtle contributions are often the difference between winning and losing in close conference tilts.


Things That Were Bad 
This section will probably be mostly redundant, but Vogrich failed to make an impact in several Michigan losses. At Iowa, Vogrich went 0-1 from 3 in 18 minutes, which can partly be attributed to the nature of that performance for the team as a whole, particularly the offense's propensity to break down if Trey Burke isn't functioning at peak levels or if the pick and roll is being stonewalled.

Otherwise, just scan his game log for yourself: it's littered with 0-2s from 3, which unfortunately was the standard Vogrich stat line last season. I get the feeling that I'm being almost unfairly negative here, so, to reiterate: it's very difficult for a player like Vogrich to make a difference with consistency when he's only putting up 2 shots, at most, on any given night.

The question becomes: what do you do about it? I'm not sure that Vogrich is an integral cog to the point that he should be asked to "keep shooting", as is often told to 3-point specialists when they are struggling. If he doesn't hit one of his first 2 or 3 shots, it's very difficult to justify that sort of advice, as much as I or any other Michigan fan would love to see him become that 3-point shooter that we all want him to be.

Maybe things will change this season, but Vogrich does not strike me as a guy like Novak or Douglass, players who were predominantly 3-point spot up guys for their first three seasons before the desert bloomed last season when they displayed an ability to make a difference on the bounce and in the mid-range game.

If Vogrich Was A Literary Figure 


Harper Lee. Kind of a one-hit wonder. His ability to write To Kill A Mockingbird shoot the three early on in his career inspired visions of greatness in many, visions which only gave way to a not so gradual fade into obscurity. Is he, like Harper Lee post-TKAM, done writing shooting the three at the level he once did?


Things That Would Be Prettyyyy Prettyyyy Prettyyyy Good

• Justify more minutes. As I mentioned, pure minutes played is a big issue for a guy like Vogrich. Getting on the floor more often--for instance, something in the neighborhood of the 14 minutes per game that he logged in 2010-11--necessitates doing other things other than 3-point shooting. 
• GRIT. This has been a positive in Vogrich's game that has nothing to do with outside shooting. He hasn't exactly racked up eye-popping rebounding numbers, but I've found myself fairly surprised with his ability to pull down the occasional offensive board or two despite his obvious physical limitations. This is one of those aforementioned "other things" that Vogrich can do to get more minutes and, consequently, have more of a chance to get in a rhythm. Like major league hitters, 3-point specialists are creatures of habit and repetition. 
• Yeah, 3-point shooting. For the millionth time, Vogrich needs to make good on his few attempts per game. This again is a nod to the point I made about Jordan Morgan finishing around the basket and the Ray Ratto "just win the game" reference. I'm not sure that there was anything explicitly off with his mechanics, footwork, etc. He just needs to make them when he gets the chance, which is unfortunately a difficult task given his overall lack of usage and his ancillary role on this iteration of Michigan basketball. 

OFFICIAL EXPECTATIONS FOR SOMETHING THAT'S FOUR MONTHS AWAY 

FROM STARTING 

Michigan will likely have a team capable of winning the conference whether or not Vogrich returns to the form that he showed during his first two seasons. With that said, having a guy that shoots 40% from three, despite being very low usage, would be an incredible boon for a team that no longer has Zack Novak and Stu Douglass to rely on from outside, in addition to THJ being decidedly erratic from outside and Trey being approximately adequate from there as well. Luckily, Michigan does have reputed 3-point gunner Nik Stauskas coming in, but in a system like Beilein's--and today's college basketball world, generally--you can never have too much quality 3-point shooting.

I'm having a hard time getting a handle on what to expect from Vogrich this season. With Stauskas figuring to be a major component of this team, Vogrich's 3-point ability might be somewhat marginalized. Similarly, with THJ moving to the two (although I have always been somewhat skeptical of the rigidity of these number/position designations), minutes may be hard to come by in any greater number than they were last season.

Regardless, I think that Vogrich will prove that last season was somewhat of an outlier. He is a good shooter, period, and I'm confident that if he was playing for another team where minutes were more available, he would be able to show that on a more consistent basis. I think that Vogrich will see the court a little more than last season, and his percentage will climb back up to respectability. His 30% mark last season will be proven to simply be a convergence of bad luck and lack of run...I think somewhere in the range of 34-36% is a reasonable expectation for Vogrich in 2012-13.

Way Too Early Basketball Expectations-o-Meter: Jordan Morgan

People I've already talked about: Tim Hardaway Jr.

After starting with THJ in the back court, it's time to shift to the front court. Upon the graduation of the gritty warrior poets known as Zack Novak and Stu Douglass, Morgan officially assumes takes up the vacated title of "Not Superbly Talented But GRITTY Basketball Player Who I Will Endearingly Refer To As GRITTY and TOUGH Whenever I Talk About Him." So, let's talk about Jordan Morgan for a little bit.

Way Too Early Basketball Expectations-o-Meter: Tim Hardaway Jr.

I've been following NBA free agency, not with glee or any sort of excitement or optimism, but complete despair. Nay, I am a Bulls fan, a fan of a team team run by a guy gunning for the coveted Fiscal Responsibility Championship as opposed to an actual title that is real and has meaning. The Bulls have almost completely depleted their bench, losing Ronnie Brewer, Kyle Korver, John Lucas III, CJ Watson, and probably Omer Asik. The Bulls will also not bring back Brian Scalabrine, which is a crime almost as grave as Twitter hashtags sullying the Big House's artificial turf. Thus far, the Bulls have replaced the departing "Bench Mob"with Kirk Kinrich (which, as far as FA signings go, is basically like making a sequel of something instead of being creative and coming up with something original), Vladimir Radmonivic, and, it sounds like, Dark Milicic. With Derrick Rose rehabbing from the knee injury sustained during the playoffs and Luol Deng's wrist issues, the Bulls' situation for 2012-13 looks pretty bleak. Hello, lottery. Needless to say, this is not a basketball program to be excited about right now.

This is all a forced segue into something I am, in contrast, very excited about: that something is the 2012-13 University of Michigan basketball squadron. Unlike the Bulls, Beilein's Wolverines should be fairly deep and would seem to have few, if any, glaring weaknesses. They're experienced, talented, and eager to avenge what was a bitter end to the 2011-12 season.

It's been a while since the loss to Ohio (Ohio Ohio), so I've long ago come to terms with it and stopped losing sleep over Beilein deciding to allow Michigan to run the Kobe offense with Trey near the end of that game. It was not fun, but it's over. It was a sour final salvo to what was otherwise an awesome season. Insert your preferred verbiage here about the randomness of a single-elimination format and how it's all going to be okay because it's completely not even about wins or championships, you guys: it's about the game, having fun, and cracking joke about GRIT and TOUGHNESS. Everything else is just gravy.

In light of the stark dichotomy between my expectations vis-a-vis my respective basketball teams, I decided to take a look at what my expectations are for John Beilein's 6th Wolverine team. There's not much going on right now in this dead summer month before fall camp, and literally anything is better than talking about the NCAA's role in the PSU scandal, how the people in charge of college football are big dummies, and how there might not be anymore professional hockey played in 2012.

Since we are still about 7 weeks away from football and fall camp hasn't started yet, this is a good time to run briefly outline some expectations, player by player, for this 2012-13 basketball team. If I end up being right about any of these things, I'm going to turn into Phil Steele and just refer to my JAM-PACKED WITH FACTS correctness when I do these previews before next season.

Today, we'll start with the talented enigma that is THJ.

Career to Date
I'm going to reach back into my cultural worldview here, all the way to the fuzzy time known as "4th grade." Oh yes, I am in fact talking about Pokémon. If Hardaway's freshman season was analogous to Charmander (fire-breathing, a ferocity belying his youth/inexperience), his sophomore season was, naturally, very Charmeleon-esque: an awkward adolescent phase. Now, as we all remember, Charmeleon evolved into Charizard, who was pretty great. If THJ takes the proverbial next step in 2012, we're talking about a Charizardian winger, breathing fire all over the place and inspiring envy in fans of teams who do not have a Charizard card Tim Hardaway Jr. 

Last Year
Again, last year was sort of rough for THJ, one that led to a lot of recalibration when it comes to assessing THJ's abilities and/or future as a Michigan basketball player. Was his torrid freshman 3-point shooting (36.7%) a sort of extended fluke? Well, after shooting 28% last year, you would certainly not be wrong to think along those lines.

Otherwise, THJ's overall FG% remained roughly the same (42%). He averaged 14.6 ppg after dropping 13.9 ppg in 2010-11. He turned the ball over quite a bit more last season (66 turnovers last season vs. 45 during his freshman season). In addition to 3-point shooting, it became painfully obvious that his handles were not quite as crisp or world-destroying as we might have imagined them to be when he was still a freshman and we hadn't had enough time to objectively consider his abilities.

He got to the line more last season (4.4 FTA per game, averaging exactly 1 more attempt per than '10-'11), which was partly--well, mostly--a product of him simply having to create more with Darius Morris wearing purple and gold instead of maize and blue. For all of his abilities, Trey wasn't the facilitator that Morris was, but I'll address that when I get to it.

Things That Were Good 

Well, last season wasn't all bad, obviously. THJ flashed some of that freshman year Kobe-esque gunnery (the good kind, not the I'm going to take a million shots no matter what kind) here and there, although admittedly not as often as one would've liked. After non-conference play had ended, THJ was shooting 33% from 3; not exactly transcendent, but not completely terrible.

Then the wheels fell off during conference play. He went: 1/7 against PSU at home, 0/7 @IU, 0/8 @Iowa, 2/7 @OSU, 2/8 against IU at home, 0/6 @Nebraska, 2/9 @Northwestern...and so on. You get the picture. I realize that I'm not actually talking about good things, which is what this section is supposed to be for.

After Michigan took a weird thumping at home at the hands of a hungry Purdue team (Michigan's only loss at Crisler all year), the Wolverines traveled to Champaign to take on a desperate but dysfunctional Illini team. THJ went out and had the biggest game of his season, dropping 25 points and 11 boards. He was about as efficient as you could possibly be, going 6/7 from the field and a perfect 4/4 from beyond the arc. Additionally, he was a frequent visitor to the charity stripe, where he went 9/10. This is the game you point to from last season to say "why don't you do that all the time?" Of course, it's not that easy (plus, Illinois was sort of terrible).

Things That Were Bad
Well, I already said most of them in the last section, but...THJ had, shall we say, a deep-seated enthusiasm for the bad 3. Early shot clock, heat check, you name it. And, you know, I get it. As a gunner, it's frustrating to keep shooting, to have people tell you to keep shooting, and to know that you can hit from 3 because you did the year before, only to just keep missing and end up with a sub-30% mark on the season.

Other than that, THJ had trouble handling the ball at times. He had a tough time breaking his defenders down on the wing, and seemed to do much better off the ball when making slice cuts to the middle or attacking in transition, which Michigan did not find itself doing all that much as one of the slower teams in the league. Commentators keep joking about how "Daddy could never do that" whenever THJ flashes a bit of athleticism, but if there's one that that Dad has on him, it's a nasty, ankle-incinerating crossover.

 Last but not least, I fully believe that TJ could be a defensive stopper if he wanted to. There were numerous times when his effort didn't seem to be there, or he was simply being lazy with his footwork and focus. One example of a defensive gaffe that comes to mind came at the end of the first Northwestern game, when THJ fouled Alex Marcotullio beyond the 3-point line with Michigan up 3 and the clock just about to run out. Luckily, Marcotullio clanked the first of three attempts, but that sort of mistake just can't happen and is emblematic of THJ's occasional lack of defensive focus.

If THJ Was A Literary Figure. Franz Kafka. Often works in short, streaky bursts of fevered, prolific brilliance. Wildly divergent performance often makes one ask existentialist questions like "why am I a bug?" or "why am I shooting 9 percentage points worse from 3 this year?" Earlier work (The Metamorphosis, second half of the 2010-11 conference slate) is more widely known and praised than later material (The Trial, The Castle, 2011-12 season). His work makes you go both AHHHHH and AHHHHH, one in a good way and one in a very bad, frightening way.


Things That Would Be Prettyyyy Prettyyyy Prettyyyy Good

• Be more efficient. THJ was 31st in the conference in eFG%, putting him in between two Hoosiers in the rankings (Oladipo and Watford). As a junior, you'd think that a hopefully more well-informed shot selection is in the cards. Either way, if Tim's going to be the First Team All-Big Ten that many think he can be, he needs to value the ball a little more. 
• Less turnovers. His turnover percentage is not that awful when you look at it (14.5%), I guess, but it still seemed like THJ carrying the ball into the lane was just about a 50-50 proposition as to whether or not he'd turn it over or draw a foul. We know that Tim (and the rest of the team) has been working hard this offseason, so we can only hope that the offseason competitions and ball-handling drills will have an obvious effect come November. 
• D up. Not much to expand upon here, but I'd like to see THJ bring it a little more consistently on D. He's still arguably Michigan's best athlete (GRIII sounds like his biggest competition in that department), and he has the ability to stick to the conference's best wingers if he wants to. For a guy that can jump like Tim can, it would be nice to see him hit the boards a little harder (he averaged 3.9 per game last year). I think he could make serious hay on the offensive glass; I wonder if Beilein decides to put a greater emphasis on the offensive boards now that Michigan has some depth in the front court? With the added size on the roster, Michigan doesn't need his rebounding as much, but I think he should be able to pick up a few more double doubles this season after notching two of them in 2011-12. 

OFFICIAL EXPECTATIONS FOR SOMETHING THAT'S FOUR MONTHS AWAY 

FROM STARTING 

I think that Tim's offensive output only improves a little bit, but not because he hasn't gotten any better. Michigan simply has more options in the front court, Stauskas and Vogrich will be taking their fair share of triples, and Burke will still be around being all high usage-y and awesome. Tim will also be a little more efficient than he has been, I think. THJ put up just under 15 a game last season, and most people would probably say that his sophomore year was a bit of a disappointment. If anything, that speaks to the somewhat unrealistic expectations that THJ's freshman year created.

As far as post-season recognition goes, I think that THJ is easily Second Team All- Big Ten with only minimal improvement. Otherwise, if he improves as I imagine he will, he will be First Team All-Big Ten this season and the undisputed top shooting guard in the conference (after having moved back from the 3, where he spent most of last season).