With one more week in the books, the picture becomes clearer in some spots, blurrier in others.
The nonconference slate is a mishmash of comfortable victories, head-scratching close calls and everything in between: Week 2 offered a diverse selection of all three. Take Clemson, Georgia, Arizona, for example -- and those were all wins.
Thus far, Clemson looks nothing like the team that closed the 2015 season on a high note, the highest note of any team not named Alabama. Deshaun Watson passed a whopping 53 times and completed just 27 of those attempts, which is fine if you're Texas Tech or the Detroit Lions' Matt Stafford, but not if you're the No. 2 team in the country playing Troy at home.
Meanwhile, in Athens, Kirby Smart's squad limped its way to a win against Nicholls State (which finished 3-8 in 2015). After a solid win against UNC (made slightly more solid after UNC's thumping of Illinois), the Dawgs came back down to earth, with Nick Chubb managing just 80 yards on 20 carries. Turnovers helped keep the Colonels in the game, as if often the case when the Little Guy hangs with the Big Guy. Georgia can definitely compete in the SEC East -- which, I suppose, is a lot like saying the Big Ten West winner will have a chance at winning the conference title. But this team is another Chubb injury away from some real problems ... an injury that hopefully does not happen, because he's a fun player to watch, and isn't that what all of this is about?
Arizona, well, they scored 28 unanswered and beat Grambling State by 10. If you need a second to reread that sentence, feel free to do so and meet me at the next paragraph.
Done? Yes, that is something that happened, yet another drop in the torrential downpour of madness that is the college game. And, really, let's be honest: Is that result even all that surprising? Does that box score move the needle in any way whatsoever? No? I'm not sure what to say about the Rich Rodriguez era in Tucson other than his teams always seem to teeter perilously on the precipice separating resurgence from oblivion. Rodriguez's squad followed his first two seasons, both 8-win campaigns, with 10 wins in 2014, but just seven last year.
The Wildcats cap the season with trips to Oregon State and Washington State, and the rivalry tilt against Arizona State. But it's the five games prior that will decide the season and, perhaps, move the needle back in the positive direction for Rodriguez and Co. After this week's matchup against Hawaii, Arizona hosts Washington, travels to UCLA and Utah, then hosts USC and Stanford. Win three of those and close out with four straight against WSU, Oregon State, Colorado and ASU and you're looking at eight wins.
But, you know, who knows. Arizona, like so many others, is just one of those teams that generally does not adhere to philosophical structures of order or reason. They're either firing on all cylinders, zooming down the highway, or crapped out on the side of the road, belching smoke into the pastel Arizona sky.
Speaking of close calls, you can even look at Nebraska, which dispatched Wyoming with ease, 52-17 -- close call? The Cornhuskers held a 24-17 lead after three quarters. But hey, that's why you play four.
If all of the above sounds like bad news for the aforementioned teams, maybe it is and maybe it isn't -- but take it all into account, hand-wringing Michigan fan, when you bemoan Michigan's "unimpressive" 37-point victory against UCF.
That performance was far from perfect, but why is anyone expecting that in the first place? Even Alabama, the colossus from T-Town, didn't look like the same team in Week 2, besting Western Kentucky by "just" 28 points, 38-10. Jalen Hurts threw two picks and the Tide averaged 3.2 yards per carry. None of that means anything.
Oh, right, there was also that business in Stillwater. What to say? I still lack words for the conclusion of the 2015 Michigan-Michigan State game. Things happen in college football that are spectacular for their lack of decipherable meaning. You can say "why?" but you already know the answer.
Incredulity, thy nom de guerre is college football.
If you're looking for sense in anything, college football is the last place you'll find it. You might as well roam the desert looking for a Wi-Fi hotspot, pining for a chance to send that Tweet about how something that happened on Sept. 10 presages either doom or success against a future opponent.
Elsewhere
Iowa State is truly bad. This is a fact that only underscores the awesome accomplishment achieved by Iowa in its 42-3 win against them. The Hawkeyes have found a way to lose to some wretched Cyclones teams over the years, but not this time. Really, I was far more impressed by this victory than one ought to be. We're not talking a hex of the late 1990s/early 2000s, when ISU beat Iowa five years in a row, but ISU did take three of the last five before this year's matchup, including the 2012 9-6 game. That ISU team finished 6-7. They also finished 6-7 in 2011, another winning year for ISU over Iowa, and 2-10 in 2014. This is probably more than you needed to know -- the point? Beating a bad Iowa State team by many points is significant for an Iowa team that has struggled to beat bad Iowa State teams.
Remember Danny Etling? If you do, you're either a recruiting buff or a Purdue football die-hard. Regardless, he played most of a football game this past Saturday ... for LSU. Etling, who transferred from West Lafayette to Baton Rouge, went 6-of-14 for 100 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Which, somehow, was worse than Brandon Harris' performance in Week 1 against Wisconsin. It really is difficult to think of a program that has squandered so much talent based on its inability to get one thing even sort of right (i.e. quarterback). Gone are the glorious days of Matt Mauck.
The Seminoles head to Louisville to take on QB Lamar Jackson and Co. this week in what promises to be an exciting matchup. Jackson posted another big day in a Week 2 win against Syracuse. In two games, he's passed for 697 yards and completed 59.7 percent of his attempts. He's also rushed for 318 yards. Needless to say, FSU is a step or two up from Charlotte and Syracuse. But if early returns mean anything, Jackson is a step up from the quarterbacks FSU has faced to date.
There's still something strange about seeing Washington sitting there at No. 8. They went 8-6 and 7-6 in Chris Petersen's first two years, yet somehow found themselves in the preseason top 10. Why? I don't know. It's not even that they necessarily don't "deserve" to be there, so much as their inclusion feels very strange, like a curly fry that finds its way into a batch of regular fries. With that said, unlike many other teams, the Huskies have taken care of business thus far, and the schedule actually looks quite manageable. UW hosts Stanford Sept. 30 and visits Oregon Oct. 8, but after that I don't see any games that are slam-dunk losses. A trip to Utah is always tough (ask Michigan), USC is the Pac-12's LSU (hey, look at all that talent) and the Apple Cup is a rivalry game still, even if the Cougars have failed spectacularly to date. If UW wants any chance at a playoff berth, it will need to sweep that Stanford-Oregon stretch.
The game of the week? Arkansas-TCU, which was actually sort of a snoozer until the very end. The unsnoozeification of this one began when Arkansas missed a 22-yard field goal, then up 20-7 late in the third. TCU stormed back to take a lead, until Arkansas went 58 yards in 62 seconds to tie it with a minute to go at 28-28. TCU had a chance to win with a field goal, a 28-yarder. That was blocked, because the very notion of field goals resides in the realm of Bad Possibilities, and Arkansas went on to win in overtime. It's still unclear to me what Bret Bielema and Arkansas' path to success in the SEC West is, but one thing's certain: Razorbacks games are worth the watch. A Sept. 24 date with Texas A&M will likely be another one worthy of viewing consideration.
After a rough first quarter that saw Tennessee trailing Virginia Tech 14-0, the Vols bounced back to notch a comfortable win at Bristol Motor Speedway (it's a brave new world). Tennessee gets a breather with Ohio this week -- well, in theory -- but then the schedule gets brutal before finishing with a pretty breezy five-game stretch. After Ohio, UT gets Florida at home, Georgia and Texas A&M on the road, and Alabama at home. The Vols were talked about as a playoff contender heading into this season, but that four-game stretch always loomed large. Assuming they get to the SEC title game and score an upset against Alabama, they can't afford to lose more than one of those four. Maybe Tennessee figures things out and manages to go 3-1 there, win the final five and have a shot at a play-in game in the SEC title game. Either way, like the Stanford-Oregon stretch for Washington, the Florida-Georgia tilts in consecutive weeks are must-wins.
If college football can be likened to Game of Thrones, then Nebraska's 2015 season was akin to the guy who jumps on the bandwagon of the deity in vouge at exactly the wrong time. That's really the only explanation for Nebraska's insane run of bad luck last season. However, looking at their schedule, the 'Huskers have a chance to be one of the notable bounceback teams of 2016. In one of the more quietly interesting games of the week, Nebraska welcomes Oregon to Memorial Stadium, a team that is undoubtedly a few notches below what it once was. The Ducks can still score, sure, but they've given up yards and points like they're hosting a yard sale. Excluding UVA QB Kurt Benkert's -27 yards rushing, the Cavaliers racked up 220 yards rushing on the Oregon defense this past weekend. ESPN's Power Index gives Nebraska a 74.2 percent chance at victory. If Nebraska can score a win -- which would only be an upset in terms of the arbitrary nature of early-season polls -- then a 7-0 start is not out of the question. Nebraska follows this one up with games against Northwestern, Illinois, Indiana and Purdue; that is, the antithesis of the middle of Tennessee's schedule.
For a while here, I dabbled in writing a little about Chicago sports (which, as I then had the time, was fun, even if it went unread), I've written traditional game recaps of various Big Ten games (football and basketball) and various other little things along the way.
So, while my work as a regular journalist keeps me busy, I'm going to try to create some regularity here. I've tried in the past, with some success during the football and basketball seasons, before dropping back once summer hits.
Well, I'll worry about the summer once it returns next year: for now, the easiest way to stay engaged in the college football scene is by, what else, compiling a weekly set of by and large meaningless rankings.
Does my opinion mean anything? No, not really -- but the older I get, the less justifiable watching hours of football becomes without doing something meaningful with it ("meaning," here, is a generous term).
So, with that, here's my personal top 25 after the first week's worth of action:
1. Ohio State. Talk about a no-brainer. The Buckeyes marched into Blacksburg, missing their best defender in Joey Bosa and several other players, and still dominated despite turning it over a couple of times. Braxton Miller as utility playmaking type is a terrifying concept. Who would've thought that he would one day be a Heisman candidate...as a wide receiver? That spin move will probably feature prominently in college football promo commercials for OSU games the rest of the season, and for good reason. Ohio State appears to be on track to cruise to another playoff appearance.
2. Alabama. The Crimson Tide simply beat up a Badgers team that, for the first time in recent memory, is somewhat shaky on the offensive line. Even so, the Badgers' normally prolific rushing attack was non-existent, with UW tailback Corey Clement carrying it just 8 times for 16 yards before sitting the rest of the game out with an injury. While Joel Stave had a nice game, UW had no answer for Alabama's own rushing attack. It should be no surprise that, like conference mate Georgia, Alabama has multiple tailbacks who can get the job done. Quarterback Jake Coker's (15-of-21, 213 yards, 1 TD) longest completion of the day, in fact, was a 33-yarder to tailback Kenyan Drake. Once again, Alabama appears to be the football equivalent of the trash compactor from "Star Wars."
3. TCU. Okay, you can say the score of their season-opening win at Minnesota didn't inspire confidence. But I give credit for road wins, and the Gophers aren't a pushover. Minnesota lacks offensive punch, but they're still a tough out, and the Horned Frogs got the job done on a hot evening in Minnesota (yes, hot, Minnesota).
4. Auburn. Similarly, it's hard to say the Tigers had an exceptional Week 1, but again, I give credit for beating a real opponent. More importantly for Auburn fans, the defense looked okay, forcing two turnovers and holding Louisville quarterbacks Lamar Jackson and Reggie Bonnafon to a combined 5.06 yards per attempt. Sure, new Auburn quarterback Jeremy Johnson struggled, but I think you'd rather have the defense do okay and the young quarterback struggle than the other way around...at least at this stage of the season.
5. Michigan State. Again, file this under the "not impressive box score but still good" category. Also, props are in order for traveling to Kalamazoo. Of course, this week's tilt against Oregon is the nonconference game of note for the Spartans.
6. Baylor. Maybe I'm giving excessive weight to the halftime score against SMU (28-21, Baylor). But, again, this was a road game, and it's a long season. As long as they continue to win, that first 30 minutes will be nothing but a minor footnote.
7. Notre Dame. Okay, beating Texas -- let alone dismantling them -- doesn't mean much now, but the Longhorns were at least expected to be able to play some defense. The Fighting Irish disproved that assumption, racking up 527 yards of offense and holding the Longhorns to just 20:50 in possession (yes, I know, a meaningless stat in and of itself, but still an indicator of how the game went).
8. Oregon. I know, it's only Week 1, but the Ducks gave up a whopping 42 points and 549 total yards against Eastern Washington. That won't work out too well against conference competition.
9. Georgia. A ho-hum blowout, a college football Week 1 tradition. Todd Gurley is plying his trade in St. Louis, but Nick Chubb and Keith Marshall will do just fine for UGA (that's an understatement).
10. UCLA. Virginia isn't a powerhouse by any stretch of the imagination, but the Bruins looked strong against major conference competition, and quarterback Josh Rosen was tremendous (28-of-35, 351 yards, 3 TDs).
The wild back 15:
11. USC
12. Florida State
13. Clemson
14. Texas A&M
15. Georgia Tech
16. LSU
17. Arkansas
18. Ole Miss
19. Boise State
20. Oklahoma
21. Missouri
22. Tennessee
23. Arizona
24. Mississippi State
25. Utah
Hey, would you look at that, we're just one week away from the start of Michigan basketball. Ah, I remember that Final Four run as if it were yesterday.
Joel Stave's accuracy continues to be an issue; he badly underthrew a wide open Jared Abbrederis deep on Saturday for what would have been a touchdown. To be fair, it sounded like there was a pretty stiff wind in Memorial Stadium. Also at that link, Chris Borland should be ready to go for UW's next game against Iowa (the Badgers are off this week).
It's a sunny, 75-degree, decidedly un-Fall like day here in the Windy City; I guess we'll have to wait a little while longer before football weather arrives. In the meantime, have some links to prepare you for tomorrow's slate of games around the country:
On the injury front for Wisconsin--mentioned in Breaking Points yesterday--Coach Gary Andersen cleared a few things up, but didn't give anything definitive on tight end Jacob Pedersen, a big piece of the Badgers' passing game. Without Pedersen, star receiver Jared Abbrederis is Wisconsin's only dangerous receiving threat. That is not a formula for success against a very good Buckeye secondary, especially with Bradley Roby set to match up against Abbrederis. On the bright side for UW, Peniel Jean will go, meaning freshman Sojourn Shelton won't have to make the start. On the not so bright side, freshman center Dan Voltz will likely make his first start. This game would have been tough enough if the Badgers were completely healthy, but now, I'm thinking my prediction of a UW 7-point loss might have been slightly optimistic in favor of Andersen's squad.
Ron Higgins of NOLA.com talks SEC defense, and why it might not be as great as it has been.
If you're looking for some early season rivalry action, the always underrated Minnesota-Iowa game is your ticket. As always, Floyd of Rosedale is on the line, and the Gophers look to bring that pig back to the Twin Cities. The Daily Gopher has a Q&A with RossWB of Black Heart Gold Pants.
The undefeated Ole Miss Rebels head to Tuscaloosa this Saturday; Roll Bama Roll previews the Bo Wallace-led Ole Miss offense. It's been two weeks now since the Texas A&M game, so I'm not sure this counts as a "trap" game, but the Crimson Tide cannot take this Ole Miss team lightly.
Andrew Gribble of al.com talks to Hugh Kellenberger of the Jackson Clarion-Ledger about Ole Miss-Bama.
ESPN guys talk Oklahoma-Notre Dame. The Sooners will be making their first trip to Notre Dame Stadium since 1999.
A few things on this 82 degree day in Chicago (somehow over 10 degrees cooler than it was yesterday):
It's a big week for the Big Ten, with Wisconsin traveling out west to face Arizona State and Ohio State taking on a rebuilding but dangerous Cal team. Additionally, Nebraska takes on UCLA at home, looking to avenge last year's loss out west. Adam Rittenberg makes a "Delany=Mickey Goldmill" analogy. Good, good.
Speaking of, Bucky's 5th Quarter previews UW's tilt in Tempe. ASU will be aggressive defensively, so hopefully Joel Stave is ready to make a few more plays through the air if the running game happens to stall here and there (unlikely, but it's also unlikely that the Badgers have a third week with three 100+ yard backs).
Sippin' on Purple charts the performance of Colter/Siemian against Syracuse in the Prose Bowl. The Wildcats take on Western Michigan this week (I'm thinking about heading up there for it). It will not be close, and Glopknar will memorialize the crushing victory with tremendous video skills. I can't wait to find out what Traevon's coverage/squat status is this week.
Hammer and Rails previews Purdue's matchup against Notre Dame at Ross-Ade Stadium. Needless to say, Purdue hasn't exactly had the best of starts, getting pummeled by Cincinnati and then squeaking by Indiana State. That, combined with their lack of recent success against Notre Dame and the Fighting Irish's desire to get back on the winning track probably means this one ends up in the losing column for the conference.
Out: Michigan State, Boise State, Baylor Idle: Michigan, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Kansas State, USC, Auburn, Mississippi State, probably some other teams that I'm forgetting about
GO U NORTHWESTERN. Okay, I'll spare you this week since I wrote a full post on Northwestern this past Saturday (!). However, Northwestern is undefeated. As far as Michigan's relevance to this goes, the collapse of NU's defense in the second half against the hapless Hoosiers should make Michigan fans feel a little bit better about this game.
Texas Tech...plays defense? This is without a doubt one of the strangest happenings of the 2012 season. The Red Raiders are playing defense, well. Per Hinton, TTU leads the national in total defense and pass defense at this point in time. I don't even have anything witty to say about this. I'm honestly shocked that Tuberville was able to fashion some semblance of a defense in Lubbock, but apparently he has. Of course, the Big 12 will offer many opportunities for that defense to get shredded, particularly through the air. We'll see if this center can hold.
One more "why couldn't we do that?" data point. Ole Miss held the Tide to 125 yards rushing at 3.7 yards per carry. In addition to Alabama's modest output against Western Kentucky, you have to wonder how Michigan was not able to contain Alabama's running game even a little bit. True, Alabama has one less bullet in the chamber given Jalston Fowler's season-ending injury, but still: how were Ole Miss and WKU, of all teams, able to do so much better than Michigan did? This is truly one of life's greatest mysteries.
A brief note on WVU-Baylor. 2010 Michigan-Illinois, last season's Washington-Baylor bowl game, this WVU-Baylor game...all these games are stupid and should not be celebrated. Yes, I know that I'm being the stereotypical BIG TEN MAN that Shutdown Fullback satirizes, but that type of football just isn't appealing. Say what you will about the relative quality of Ohio State and Michigan State, but I was actually engaged in that game, unlike this glorified arena derby.
Speaking of little defense...Texas and Georgia, teams occupying the "not Alabama but still ridiculously good" rung on the defensive hierarchy, both proved to be somewhat vulnerable this past week against Oklahoma Stateand Tennessee, respectively. I have to think that this was an outlier for both teams, but especially for Texas, who take on Oklahoma State 2.0 this Saturday (i.e. West Virginia). We shall find out if: a) Texas's defense is as good as previously thought and b) whether WVU's ridiculous offense works on the road, away from the scent of gunpowder and the Morgantown fog.
We are playing UMass this week...here are some words. Since I don't have time to do a proper UMass preview due to an imminent move to the hamlet of Chicago, I will have to do it lightning round style. Here it is.
The game is over. No, really, it's already over. This is of course assuming that Michigan can contain...
That was your UMass preview: an unrelated video and a "Mike Cox is awesome haha not really" joke. Anyway, my friend Mike Taub will have the Who Are You? post up tomorrow as usual (I think).
"The kids call 'em ballers." I think this may have to be the new site tagline.
Duck season. The last few days have not been good ones for Oregon football, what with two senior starters, safety John Boyett and guard Carson York, both going down with injuries, ostensibly for the rest of the season. This is where I make a lazy joke about Phil Knight and Oregon's players being interchangeable cogs in the machine that is Oregon football and so on and so forth.
I spent the offseason convincing myself of this theory of interchangeability vis-a-vis Wisconsin football, and we've seen how that's turned out (although Wisconsin's offseason losses were obviously more significant than Oregon's losses). Still, for a team that isn't quite on the same level as Alabama or LSU in the starting 22--and certainly not depth-wise--any losses at all can become a damaging blow to a team's title hopes.
Columns that will be written every year for the rest of Time. Bryan Fischer tackles the primary driving force behind the Big Ten's ineptitude since the beginning of the new millennium. The verdict? Oh, don't pretend that you don't even know. Or maybe you don't know, because you are taking a long time to think about it, because you are sloooow:
The biggest issue for the conference is overall team speed. Sure, that's subjective. But it's accurate. From the safeties to the slot receivers, one can't compare how most Big Ten teams operate between the lines to their counterparts in the Big 12, Pac-12, SEC and, even in some cases, the ACC.
I've always been sort of mystified by the fact that people will, without fail, chalk up the B1G's struggles to a lack of speed. Not only is it reductive, it doesn't really give the teams beating B1G squads their due credit. Football games are not won and lost solely because of team speed.
It's 2012. I thought we had the "yes, the SEC is certainly faster in the front 7 but everywhere else it's too close to be statistically significant" line down pat. I guess not. On the bright side, Fischer does give our very own D. Funch some well-earned respect:
Freshman of the week Devin Funchess, who became the Wolverines' first tight end to have 100+ yards receiving since 1997, is an example. He's big and physical but can still move down the field and in space with a reported 4.6 40-yard dash. Grabbing more players like him at positions like tight end is a start to being more competitive with programs from other leagues, and the Wolverines have been well on their way based on their recent recruiting classes.
Dear Michigan: recruit more players that are big and fast and talented. This recruiting advice has been completely pro bono on my part. You're welcome.
Grasping at straws. For the people staring at the Alabama-WKU box score and wondering how the Hilltoppers were somehow able to contain the Crimson Tide ground game much more effectively than Michigan did, here's one thing to make you feel a little bit better:
On Monday, two days after a 35-0 victory over Western Kentucky, Lester acknowledged that the Crimson Tide wasn't as focused last week as it should have been.
Why?
“I would say it was because Western Kentucky is a smaller team," Lester said. "I think a lot of guys didn’t look at them as seriously as they did games like Michigan or Arkansas. A lot of guys weren’t motivated like in a big game. We were coming off a big game and have a big game coming up, so a lot of guys weren’t motivated.”
Obviously, "not being focused" for Alabama still yields a shutout and a comfortable 35-point victory. So, good news everyone: if Alabama doesn't try, you have a very real shot at scoring zero points.
Yes, more "Big Ten is terrible" stuff. Spencer Hall uses the letter J in this week's Alphabetical to cover the Big Ten's week 2 struggles and to insert this note:
It's one week in a very long season, but don't think Jim Delany is not at this instant crafting the most carefully worded full-page ad in the Birmingham News congratulating Alabama on their continued football success while also slyly mentioning the state's dismal high school dropout rates.
Not that the above isn't probably true, but, to add to the sentiment about "team speed" above: sometimes I get the feeling that college football commentary is just one big elaborate Mad Lib.
#WEHOPEYOUDANCE. Speaking of Spencer...join the #WEHOPEYOUDANCE revolution to get Bill Dance, TV angler and iconic TENNESSEE MAN, onto this week's College Gameday set as a celebrity picker. Due to the frightening power of social media, this will goal will be accomplished in absurdly short order (if it hasn't been done already). If you need any more reasons to do this, just know that Kenny Chesney has been chosen as the UT celebrity picker for this week's Gameday. Kenny Chesney.
If this works, this will be just another one of those moments where you have the marvel at the frivolous yet awesome power of the Internet.
More? Jamie Mac says nice things about the Big Ten...no, this is not a trick at all. Even the Wall Street Journal has a take on the Big Ten being terrible, as well as some unsolicited some advice. Zach at Maize n Brew takes a look at the key offensive and defensive plays from the Air Force game.
Al: "I'll wait for you to turn into Cade McNown. I'll wait for you!"
Al Borges has had a pretty bad time in general these last few days. The Alabama game went just about as expected, although the final score did reach the worst case scenario as opposed to the in retrospect laughable hope that we could keep it "close" (i.e. cover the spread). Yet, people are still upset at Al. Why didn't he do this or that? Why, Al, Why?
Admittedly, attempting to mine useful football talk from fans in the middle of a game is useless, like asking a teenager for parenting tips. Even I, with my personal stake in the game (as a former resident of the Yellowhammer state), was going USE DENARD BLARGHHH like everyone else. After the requisite 24-hour moping period came and went, it became fairly clear that Borges did the only thing he could do, that being exactly what he did.
When Borges said they "weren't going to let you do that", with a matter-of-factness verging on grim nihilism, he truly meant it. Alabama really is not in the business of letting anybody run the ball on them. Remember, they're pretty good, and have been so throughout the entire Saban era for a reason (save for his debut season in 2007). Think of all the great backs and quarterbacks that the Tide go up against in the SEC: how many of them had any sort of success on the ground? I'm willing to bet that you could them on one hand.
I love Denard as much as the next guy and it will be a sad day when he plays his list game as a Wolverine (I would think that that would be clear to anyone that has read this blog), but even Cam Newton, Heisman winner, couldn't do much of anything against Alabama. Newton amassed a mere 39 yards on 22 carries. Newton, the man who spent 2010 trucking everything in sight and then speeding past LSU corner Patrick Peterson could not do a thing against the Tide. Auburn's memorable comeback began how, you ask? First, a 36-yard TD strike to Emory Blake and then a 71-yard TD pass to Terrel Zachery. We all knew that this would be the only way that we would be able to attack the Alabama defense, simply because Saban can afford to sell out on the run game with the athletes he has in the back 7/8.
Last season, Cam's rookie year in the NFL, he threw for just over 4,000 yards and ran for 706 at 5.6 YPC, scoring a total of 35 touchdowns. Newton made NFL defenses look absolutely silly all season as a rookie, and yet he couldn't do anything at all on the ground against Alabama for an eventual national championship-winning Auburn team.
Denard is not Cam Newton (in case you didn't know that already). The thing that most people still do not seem to be grasping in the aftermath is that sometimes there is no adjustment. If that makes you feel helpless as a fan, imagine how that makes Borges feel. I mean, did you watch the video above?
Give Denard a few more carries against Alabama if you must. It wouldn't have mattered, as Nick Saban's record as a defensive mastermind has shown. The only response to this would be that "hey, we were out of options and Denard is our best player so we have to use him!" My response? 1) Again, it wouldn't have worked. 2) 5-10 more carries makes an injury in what is pretty much an exhibition game as far as anybody important (i.e. Hoke) is concerned. 3) Alabama defensive players spent basically all of July and August talking about stopping Denard Robinson. As it turned out, one way of doing this was the conscientious decision to force him to give the ball to far less dangerous runners. If he kept, they would be right there to stop it because, remember, they'd been talking about it. They were ready for it.
What they couldn't have accounted for as much is Denard completing passes at the intermediate level and deep downfield. He completed a couple (2/10, per Borges), but they came too late and were too infrequent. Denard had some opportunities throughout the game and just missed, although it should also be noted that Michigan's receivers (and Alabama's fast, aggressive, and impeccably coached secondary) were also part of the problem. Once Denard proved unequal to the task of passing his way into opening up some sort of running room, it was over.
---
Anyway, I don't want to ramble on about the Alabama game any more than I have to. However, it should be clear: Michigan's offensive gameplan was probably 124th on the list of reasons why Michigan lost this game, fitting between "the existence of Nickelback, period" and "having to wait until next summer for the conclusion to Breaking Bad." Some are complaining of Borges's inflexibility, which I find to be a little bit odd and unforgiving, especially after the catastrophic start to the RR era, with Threet and Sheridan attempting to run the spread, a memory which was an indefinite--to use an Alabama-ism--"bless their hearts" situation.
What we currently have is a frustrating situation without a tidy solution. We have a senior quarterback, transcendent in some areas and still very much developing in others, united with an offensive coordinator known for coaching pro-style quarterbacks. This is pretty much the 2008 offense redux, albeit under much less dire circumstances. Last year's 11-2 mark and Michigan's success against Nebraska and OSU to end the season concealed this notion somewhat, but this offense is cognitive dissonance in action, and there's nothing we can do about it for now.
One final point. As someone who likes to talk about sports and things on the Internet, there comes a certain point where people--fans, blog proprietors, miscellaneous college football media folks, etc.--will want to lay claim to some sort of authority with respect to football parlance, strategy, and general commentary. This is natural, the urge to know more and then to parlay that knowledge into something bigger. The problem with all of this, a problem lacking a solution (not unlike the Denard-Borges mismatch conundrum) is that none of us here, tapping away at our keyboards on the Internet, know a single thing that Borges doesn't know.
In his 27th season as a college offensive coordinator, Borges has without a doubt seen every possible defensive philosophy, blitz package, opponent collective talent level, and specific in-game situations. It is natural to want to criticize the coaches when they and/or the team fails, because, if we didn't, then we'd simply be passive consumer detached from the results in a way that makes the whole process seem pointless.
In this case, however, failure was inevitable, as unsatisfying of a conclusion at which to arrive. It is a difficult thing to accept, especially as a fan of a program like Michigan, but it is the truth. Alabama was better at every position. Michigan did not have a single matchup advantage. Michigan's primary offensive strength matched up against Alabama's defensive strength and a core tenet of its defensive philosophy. Fin.
There's a lot of football left to be played, and I don't need to tell you that Saturday was probably as bad as it will get this season (and maybe even for a long, long time). I don't know that Michigan is as good as 2011 Oregon--the comparison Borges uses to say that we'll be alright--but Michigan is certainly not as bad as it showed on Saturday. Borges calling the plays for an offense quarterbacked by Denard will continue to be intermittently awkward, but Borges has already proven that he can make this offense function at a high level more often than not.
All I can say is, as completely not fun as Saturday was, I'm still completely pumped at the fact that it is college football season. So many games, so little time. I would rather be in this position right now than tracking things like WHIP, WAR, and OPS. As hilarious as Adam Dunn's stat line is, that can only carry me for so long before I need to watch football. Well, here we are.
Remember, it's early, so this is non-scientific, not to mention mostly useless. Only the Michigan teams and Clemson played anybody of worth, so take this with an enormous grain of salt. There are probably 15-20 teams that could qualify for the 15-25 range in the rankings, but most of that will get settled before the end of September.
Rank
Team
1
Alabama
2
LSU
3
USC
4
Oregon
5
West Virginia
6
Florida State
7
Georgia
8
South Carolina
9
Michigan State
10
Oklahoma
11
Clemson
12
Texas
13
Virginia Tech
14
Wisconsin
15
Nebraska
16
Arkansas
17
Oklahoma State
18
TCU
19
Michigan
20
Ohio State
21
Stanford
22
Missouri
23
Florida
24
Utah
25
Louisville
Out: Boise State, Kansas State Idle: TCU (come on, guys...taking a break already?)
The week of meh. Unless your team's name rhymes with "Schmalabama Flimson Hide", odds are your team looked mediocre, whether in victory or defeat. Wisconsin, Iowa, Florida, Arkansas, Texas (for a while), Oklahoma...these are teams that didn't exactly overwhelm in college football's opening weekend. Also, Michigan, but you know about that. It's still way too early to judge anybody in college football.
Virginia Tech-Georgia Tech: FREEEE FOOOTBALLLL. Last night's game was a bit of a snoozer for about 3.5 quarters before the fireworks near the end (no, I'm not talking about the actual fireworks that were shot off when VT kicked a field goal to tie as regulation time expired and another to win it in OT). I ranked this the top intra-divisional game for the Coastal, and it didn't disappoint. I just wish that it didn't have to basically end on a derpy Tevin Washington INT, but oh well. VT survives, and that's what counts.
The Big Ten is turrible. Nebraska thumped Southern Miss, Ohio State beat Miami (OH) with ease, and Michigan State gritted its way through a win against a revamped Boise State team. Other than that, the B1G had a pretty rough week. Minnesota took 3 overtimes to beat UNLV, Wisconsin and Iowa beat Northern Illinois and Northern Iowa by a combined six points, and Penn State fell against Ohio. On the bright side, Indiana, Illinois, and Purdue won, not to mention my soon-to-be-second-school Northwestern Wildcats, a tremendous victory that almost wasn't. KAIN COLTER FOR HEISMAN. Also on the bright side: Michigan is in the Big Ten. We play those teams.
Droll Tide. It's getting downright boring talking about how ridiculously good Alabama football is, but man...they're good. Good luck, SEC. Have fun with that. Alabama jumps up to #1 on my list, although LSU does look to be pretty formidable as well; LSU's tandem of defensive ends, Barkevious Mingo and Sam Montgomery, has to be the best in the country.
Tier 2. After the first tier of teams--'Bama, LSU, and USC--Oregon and West Virginia are definitely at the top of the second group. Against Arkansas State and Marshall, the Ducks and Mountaineers scored 59 and 69 points, respectively. However, each did give up quite a bit on defense as well (34 points each). More often that not, however, these teams will be able to outscore the competition; this is the antithesis of Saban-ball.
Clemson not Clemson-ing. "Clemson still hasn't lost" was a frequent refrain here last season, and it might be that way again. Clemson has beaten Auburn for a second time in a row (dating back to last season's victory at home). Auburn QB Kiehl Frazier put up a stat line almost identical to Denard's, which is not a good thing. Clemson was without Sammy Watkins, mind you, but DeAndre Hopkins picked up the slack (13 rec., 113 yards, 1 TD). Auburn ran the ball relatively well, but Frazier couldn't do much through the air other than one 54-yard TD strike in the first quarter. Auburn is most likely looking at another mediocre season this year. In a conference stocked with talented running backs, giving up 231 yards to Clemson's Andre Ellington does not bode well for Auburn's run D against SEC West foes like LSU (Blue and Hilliard), Alabama (Lacy, Fowler, Yeldon, and Hart), and Arkansas (Davis). Scott Loeffler, Auburn OC/former John Navarre whisperer, also has his work cut out for him in that he, like Michigan, is working with offensive personnel recruited for an offense that isn't his own.
Something to make you feel slightly worse than you already do. In the first game of the post-RGIII era in Waco, a Nick Florence-led Baylor team walloped SMU, 59-24. Florence threw four touchdown passes, his last one being a 37-yard strike to...Darryl Stonum. Stonum only had 6 receiving touchdowns during his time in Ann Arbor; with Florence slinging it all over the place in Art Briles's offense, I wouldn't be surprised to see Stonum double his career TD total this season.
That was not fun, but I've already used up all my reserves of frustration. It's over and we'll be fine moving forward...I'm pretty sure of that. But, for now, I wrote some words on what took place Saturday night.
On the bright side, things can only go up from here. These next two weeks will be huge for Michigan's confidence, the healing of boo boos, and getting those freshman some more game experience. I can't imagine what being thrown into the fire against a team like that in your first college game was like. Probably like this:
Brief note: I will attempt ("attempt" being the key word) to have these preview posts up on Friday each week around lunchtime. The grad school thing may prevent that from happening, but we'll see how it goes. I should be good to go for about the first month...after that, things might get a little dicier. The Exposition
I spent my high school years in Alabama, coinciding exactly with the Mike Shula era. This was a few months after the Mike Price fiasco, not to mention Dennis Franchione's controversial departure for Texas A&M a few months before that. Add NCAA sanctions to the mix and a new head coach in Shula* (who had been a career NFL guy to that point, and never a head coach), and you could say that things were not turning up Milhouse.
At the same time, my high school years as a Michigan fan were about as good as you could ask of your program within a 4-year window. John Navarre went out and won a Big Ten championship in 2003 to spite his squawking detractors, and Chad Henne rode piggybacked on Braylon Edwards's back in 2004 en route to another one. The 2005 season, "The Year of Infinite Pain", according to Brian, was a paper cut compared to the total system breakdown that was the Rich Rodriguez era. My final season as a high schooler was the 2006 season, of which I don't need to tell you about.
Michigan going 0-4 in its bowl games during that time put a bit of a damper on things, but it was an all around great time to be a Michigan fan, especially one living in Alabama. In retrospect, it seems almost unthinkable for Alabama to have a 4-win season and two 6-win seasons in a 4-year span, but it happened between 2003 and 2006.
Enter Nick Saban, and that's enough of that whole losing and not being mistake-free cybernetic organisms thing. Say what you will about oversigning, but there is no denying that Saban is one of the best defensive minds in the game. In five seasons, Saban has compiled a 55-12 record; half of those losses came in his first season. Simply put, Alabama has been the best team in the country since Saban arrived in Tuscaloosa.
Needless to say, in nine years, a whole lot has changed; this isn't 2003, anymore.
*Amusingly, he is now the QB coach for the Carolina Panthers, coaching one Cam Newton. Life has a funny way of working out sometimes.
Michigan Offense vs. Alabama Defense A note: I started writing this on Tuesday. I am assuming that Toussaint is not going to play, for what it's worth. The same goes for Frank Clark.
It's hard to decide which Michigan unit has a better chance of getting anything done in this game. As I detailed throughout the summer, this Alabama team is about as talented and athletic as you would expect. So, what's the catch? There is a catch, right?
Maybe, maybe not. Ask any Alabama fan about their defense and they will talk to you about RELOADING and 5-star recruits everywhere and how this ain't 2010 (when Alabama had to replace a similar amount of premium defensive talent and then went on to have a "disappointing" 3-loss season). Well, most of it is in fact true. Alabama is talented, and at certain positions, they will rotate guys in and out with relative ease.
However, some Alabama fans are just being unreasonable. I'm sorry. That's not to say that Alabama's defense won't be good (keep in mind that that 2010 defense was still very good) because they absolutely will, or that a defense that is a cut or two below last year's wouldn't still hold Michigan to a relatively low point total.
The simple fact is, no, Alabama fans, your defense will not be as good as last year's was. Then again, last year's defense was historically good, not just good in the context of the 2011 season. Some slippage can be reasonably expected, especially when replacing 7 defensive starters. Yes, I do understand that some of the players replacing these guys have seen some game action (for example, starting corner Dee Milliner), but not all of these guys have gotten meaningful playing time. Adrian Hubbard at SLB, Quinton Dial (was a rotational type guy last year that will be a half-starter along with Ed Stinson at one end position), Deion Belue is a JUCO guy in his first season in Tuscaloosa and a starting corner, Vinnie Sunseri is a true sophomore who did play some last season but has enormous shoes to fill at strong safety, etc.
As you probably know by know, Nick Saban is an evil genius whose defenses run with Gradgrindian efficiency; it's going to be "hard times"** for Michigan indeed if the OL consistently lets rushers through en route to clean shots on Denard. That cannot happen, especially early on in the contest. Nick Saban's Alabama defenses are known for their base 3-4, but Alabama is a fairly "multiple" team. The will also likely throw the 4-3 at us, the 5-2 (with two "Jack"*** linebackers on the field at once), and passing downs have their own special wrinkles for nickle packages. Alabama will throw a lot of different things, and Borges has ostensibly does his homework on all of them. That said, being ready to combat and execute these defensive looks is another battle entirely. FWIW, here's a useful video of Saban explaining the basis for the "Star" and "Money" positions in Alabama's nickel and dime looks.
Some Crimson Tide defenders to focus on at each level of the defense: 6'4'' 320lb. seniorNG Jesse Williams (he's a position switcher moving over from end, although he did play nose in his JUCO days), 6'2'' 232 lb. junior CJ Mosley at ILB (he's not nominally a starter but he basically is based on how much he will actually play, especially against a spread spread-ish team like Michigan), and 6'0'' 215 sophomore strong saftey Vinnie Sunseri (son of a coach!). Mosley in particular is a player to pay attention to when he's on the field. He's not technically a starter, but he's probably Alabama's best linebacker, and he will be on the field in passing situations. He's also Alabama's fastest backer, so expect him to do a lot of this when Denard does dump it off:
Don't get me wrong, I love Vincent Smith, but I'm not sure he will be able to shake Mosley on the edge. However, I think a guy like Justice Hayes could do some damage in this capacity, although that is admittedly based purely on recruiting hype at this point.
If Michigan (i.e. Barnum+Omameh/Mealer) cannot contain the Balrog that is Jesse Williams from getting into the backfield or render him irrelevant by attacking the edges and taking our chances there, it's going to be a long, long day. Remember this picture?
With the pressure that Alabama is sure to bring with the Jack linebacker, bringing Sunseri down into the box, and all other sorts of defensive sorcery, things could very well look like the picture above. I think Denard would agree with me: that is not something we want to happen. Alabama has spent the last few weeks talking about how they're coming for Denard, and why wouldn't they? Unless propelled by magic (4th quarter of the ND game, the entire VT game), if you key on Denard and force him to pass, things probably get ugly. Obviously, that is easier said than done, since not every team has the pure talent to force Michigan's hand in that way. Alabama, like Michigan State, certainly does.
Analogy time! Hoke:defensive line coaching::Nick Saban:defensive backs. Saban and DC Kirby Smart have supreme confidence in their DBs, which is not unreasonable given the talent they have at their disposal and the fact that Saban might be the best and most meticulous teacher of DB technique in the country. It's his special pet project amongst all other coaching duties, much like the DL is to Hoke.
A perfect example of this confidence is the Cover 1 Robber defense, which Chris Brown of Smart Football discussed in his book released earlier this summer (and summarized excellently by this MGoBlog diary). Alabama will put its corners in man coverage with regularity, and this decision is only strengthened by the fact that Michigan's top two receivers are Roy Roundtree and Jeremy Gallon. No offense to either player, but I imagine that neither exactly strikes fear in Saban's robot ersatz heart.
Want to see the Cover 1 Robber in action? You have seen it before, and I apologize in advance for this. If you'll remember, I recently linked to this excellent post from The Only Colors on the now infamous Double A-Gap blitz. Therein, a discussion of one variant, the Cover 1 Robber, was explained in detail. Guess which play that was:
As surprisingly complicated and variegated as that particular blitz is, you can be sure that Alabama has many like this one lined up and ready to go. Denard et al need to have their hot route cues down pat, or the above will very likely occur at some point.
I don't think that Michigan will have much success attacking the middle with the ground game...at least early on. Alabama stuffed everyone, even LSU's paleolithic but effective power running game, and I think that we should expect different results. I don't think that Borges is foolish enough to do this, but if Michigan lines up in the I and attempts to run any sort of traditional power run, you can bet that thousands of Michigan fans will all be throwing up their hands in unison. Unless we're in a short yardage or goal line situation, Michigan cannot afford to waste precious plays by plugging away up the middle. This isn't the 1990s: lightning bolts will not rain down on your head if you don't run to set up the pass.
The problem with that is Michigan has Denard Robinson, who, aside from being a transcendent runner with a fantastic smile, has had some basic mechanical issues in the passing game, not mention trouble reading defenses and reacting to pressure. All of these things do sound like a recipe for disaster against a defense like Alabama's, but we have to assume that Denard has improved throughout the offseason. Playing like he did against Nebraska and Ohio State would be a start, but that's all it would be. The same gaping holes that were there against the Huskers and Buckeyes likely won't be there against Alabama, and if they are they will be closing up a little more quickly.
So, what are the options? Really, there aren't many that don't involve pinpoint execution and, quite frankly, not getting blown back at the point of attack. If either happen, it's over. An UTL-esque miracle is just not going to happen against this team.
**ELITIST REFERENCES PAWLLLL
***FYI, the JLB is basically the pass-rushing linebacker; last year, it was Courtney Upshaw. Michigan Defense vs. Alabama Offense
We've had a couple relatively surprising moves on the defensive side of the ball come to light in the last week. First, Quinton Washington will be playing at the nose position and starting. Next to him is William Campbell, who was going to be play nose until the coaches eventually came to the realization that Black at the 3-tech just wasn't going to work. As such, BWC to the 3-tech and Black back to WDE it is. We won't truly know what the two-deep is actually like until the games begin, but, for now, Black's move is one more obstacle between Mario Ojemudia having to take the field against an Alabama team with a Brobdingnagian offensive line.
Speaking of the offensive line: they are huge. I previewed this position group way back in early April, and not much has changed (actually, nothing has). If you didn't already know, 2011 All-American LT Barrett Jones made the move to center to make room for Cyrus Kouandjio, which speaks to how highly the coaches think of the latter. This is the second move that Jones has mode (he was once a guard), so while position switches are often uncomfortable propositions, Jones has always been lauded as a smart guy and should be more than alright.
Alabama has a bevy of talented tailbacks and wide receivers. Like the secondary and linebackers, experience is the primary issue with most of these guys, although they are by no means completely green. None of these guys are Trent Richardson or Julio Jones, but they might not need to be if the ground game has worn Michigan down as I'm sure Alabama is intending to do.
You probably know about Eddie Lacy by now. He was Alabama's #3 in 2010, Richardson's backup last season, and should be the feature back this season. A pesky injury kept him out of most of spring ball, IIRC (including the A-Day scrimmage), and has still seemed to be banged up as recently as the last week or two. I linked to a video of him doing a short drill with a fairly significant amount of tape on his ankle, which may or may not mean anything.
Saban has used the words "day-to-day", and the fact that he'd be "ready to go in 5 or 6 days"...he said this on August 18th. The more time that passes, the more I get the feeling that he won't be 100% on 9/1. If that is the case, our old friend RS freshman Dee Hart and true freshman TJ Yeldon become the next guys in line. Jalston Fowler, Alabama's #3 last year and the Tide's top mooseback, appears to have made the move to H-back, where walk-on Kelly Johnson has won the starting role in what can be considered the shocker of fall camp (it hasn't been that exciting of a fall camp). Johnson has big shoes to fill, as the H-back is a very important player in Alabama's offense, which should basically stay the same despite the hiring of former Washington OC Doug Nussmeier (last year's OC, Jim McElwain, departed for the Colorado State head coaching job). Brad Smelley was a big time target for McCarron last season on key third downs (he was Alabama's second-most productive receiver in 2011). It's unreasonable to expect Johnson to be as good as Smelley, but he did win the starting nod, so he must be doing something right.
At receiver, Alabama appears to be rolling with 6'0'' 185 sophomore DeAndrew White and 6'2'' 195 junior Kevin Norwood at the "X" and "Z" positions, with 5'11'' 185 sophomore Christion Jones taking the "H" receiver position (i.e. the slot). I was somewhat surprised to see White win the starting over Kenny Bell, Alabama's leading returning receiver, but I'm not sure that it matters much. Bell is a physical, athletic receiver, and McCarron looked to him downfield on occasion last year. AJ and Bell hooked up for a 39-yard and 41-yard TD against Tennessee and Auburn (a flea flicker, FWIW) respectively. Fast forward to 0:35 in the video below to see this in action.
Anywho, Alabama has more, but to continue to name them would be overkill. Here's the thing. Alabama's offense is a little more complicated than it may seem, but in the end this game will be all about those things that make us roll our eyes when guys like Merill Hoge talk about them: toughness, resilience, the ability to bend but not break, completely unironic GRIT. If Michigan is going to get this done, it probably won't be pretty. Alabama will pick up yards on the ground and, inevitably, through the air when Mattison is forced to bring increasingly crazier and riskier blitzes. However, if Michigan can hunker down once Alabama cross the M's 30, not unlike the Sugar Bowl, then I'm saying there's a chance.
I mentioned this back when I took a look at Alabama's quarterbacks and I'll say it again: McCarron is a better player than many Michigan fans are probably giving him credit for. He's a solid player, and yeah, sure, having that team around him certainly helps. However, all you need to do to realize that being a QB for such a team is not so easy is to recall LSU's 2011 season. The quarterbacking during the national title game was so rough that folks with no stake in the result of the game (me, for example) began to plead all over the Internet for Les Miles to PUT IN THE OTHER GUY, a guy who is often known as Jarrett "Pick 6" Lee.
I mentioned that moving QW to nose and Black back to WDE was kind of like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic, but the more thought I give this configuration, the more I like it. That is 600+ pounds (607 according to MGoBlog's Fall Roster Overanalysis) of human being there in the middle. Will it be enough against an interior trio of Chance Warmack, Barrett Jones, and Anthony Steen? Maybe not, but I like Michigan's chances much better with QW than Black.
As for the ends, there was once a point when I was fairly optimistic about this group. Now, not so much. I'm having visions in my head of Beyer and Roh getting handled by Fluker and Kouandjio in the ground game and getting stonewalled in the pass rush, and who knows what kind of player Black will be after adding weight and spending so much practice time on the inside. At this point, any sort of pass rush that Michigan can get from the these guys is gravy, which is a pretty ominous thing to have to say.
With that said, things are rosier in the back 7 for Michigan. As far as tight ends go, Michael Williams is Alabama's starter. He doesn't seem to be anything extraordinary, but he is by no means a liability or anything. He was a red zone target against Penn State last season (and also the recipient of a fake field goal TD pass that Ace linked to here).
Otherwise, I feel pretty confident that Michigan's 'backers will match up in coverage. The only catch is the Williams is 6'6'' and a biscuit under 270. OF COURSE HE IS. When Alabama has Williams and an H-back in the game, odds are you are about to get smashed in the face. He's a blocker and possible red zone guy...basically, what we all hope AJ Williams will one day become.
I feel confident enough in Michigan's safeties not giving up the dreaded big play for the first half or so. But...after that, especially if Alabama has racked up enough yardage that plays like the above dart to Bell can happen? That is the moment that the game is over.
What Needs to Happen, Fergodsakes
On defense:
Say it with me now: bend but don't break.I'm sure Mattison has some tricks up his sleeve, but tricks can only do so much when the other team is simply bigger and faster. Michigan is not going to win the stat sheet battle. If Mattison's defense gives up 500 yards and manages to hold Alabama under 31, there is hope. Make them kick field goals (see: 2011 LSU game, Part 1).
Countess and Floyd. Please be in pre-OSU/VT form. Alabama has quite a few talented players at receiver, but I'm not really convinced that there is a star among them (certainly not a Julio type). This goes without saying, but given the probably lack of a front four pass rush, JT and Blake will be on an island more fairly often. The good news is that, after a year of Mattison's diabolical blitzes and aggressiveness verging on over-aggressiveness, they're probably up to the challenge.
Quinton and William. To put it simply, if these two look like they're on skates, there is simply no hope. Again, you can only scheme and mitigate your weaknesses so much. As Saturday approaches, I've become increasingly confident that they'll be able to hold up at least adequately; whether the linebackers can shed Warmack and Steen and tackle the ball carrier--whether an all-around talent like Lacy or a darty sort like Hart--is another story entirely. For the record, I'm fairly confident that Demens, Morgan, and Ryan will do a decent job. Jake Ryan, after QW and BWC, might be the most important player on Michigan's entire team in this game.
On offense:
No turnovers please. If Michigan turns the ball over, chances are a win is not happening. The margin for error is razor thin.
Get the passing game going early. My nightmare is that Michigan comes out, plugs away on the ground, fails miserably and then sees everything spiral out of control as Michigan tries to pass its way back in the game with a guy like Denard. The slant will be there, and Borges will call upon that old standby, the throwback screen to Gallon to start pushing the Alabama linebackers and safeties away from the LOS. Naturally, if that happens, that's where Denard goes to work. If there's 9 in the box, forget about it
Devin Gardner. The wild card-iest wild card who ever wild card'd. If he is a legitimate force at receiver, that could change everything. To be quite honest, after Milliner, the rest of Alabama's corners don't impress me as much as Alabama's new linebackers do. Also, I need to see Sunseri and Clinton-Dix in action before I deem them the second coming of Ronnie Lott. I think that Michigan might get some mileage out of the so called "QB Oh Noes" play, as Brian calls it, what with Sunseri looking to be an involved and aggressive player in the run game. Borges needs to scheme against that position.
Attack the edge, quickly. Yes, SEC speed and all that, but I think that it's just about a waste of time to try (past a token effort) to develop a between-the-tackles running game, at least in the first quarter or so. Michigan needs to be creative in its ground game, kind of like it was against Ohio State last November. Get numbers going to the edges and let's see how those pseudo-newbies at linebacker handle Denard. WR end arounds. Denard jet sweeps.
Trick plays. Let's see 'em. Seriously, Al. 2008 Capital One Bowl Redux, this needs to be.
Predictions of Negligible Worth
Making these sorts of predictions, especially for a game like this, is a torturous thing. A prediction is not really one data point that you pluck out of thin air. It's a deliberate whittling down of all results from a giant marble slab of possibility. My point: could I see everything going perfectly, Alabama having a bad day, and Michigan eeking out an incredibly ugly yet satisfying Sugar Bowl-esque win? Yes, I honestly can. Alabama is talented, and it speaks to the state of things that Michigan is such an underdog in spite of all the big name players that Alabama lost. In two or three years, this game will be an even contest going in, but we're not quite there yet. Still, this is a good Michigan team, and not one that should be underestimated.
With that said, too many things have to go well for Michigan to win this game. Michigan will probably need to have a turnover margin of at least +2. How likely is this? If this game is played ten times, Michigan probably has everything fall into place maybe once. That's what it is. We're banking on that one, that unlikely scenario, the "Jareth Glanda catching a pass" of games.
As much as it pains me to say it, I just can't make that prediction. To be able to stick it to the reigning national champs, the team that I had to spend four years hearing about as a high schooler, would be something beyond tremendous, if such a superlative even existed.
In the end, Michigan keeps it close for the first half, but without Toussaint, Michigan just won't have enough juice to keep enough drives going to make it a game. Even with Fitz, I'm not sure that Michigan has enough. It won't be pretty, but it won't be an outright blowout. At the same time, I don't think it will necessarily be "close." Michigan is a 13.5 point underdog, which, sadly, is just about right.
Hello, Internet. I am Fouad Egbaria, a Michigan grad ('11) and recent graduate of the MSJ program at Northwestern's Medill School of Journalism. This is a blog that attempts to analyze the highs and lows of Michigan football and basketball; I'm just trying to capture the spirit of the thing. I will also write about general Big Ten news, as well as Chicago professional sports (from time to time).
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