All I can say is, as completely not fun as Saturday was, I'm still completely pumped at the fact that it is college football season. So many games, so little time. I would rather be in this position right now than tracking things like WHIP, WAR, and OPS. As hilarious as Adam Dunn's stat line is, that can only carry me for so long before I need to watch football. Well, here we are.
Remember, it's early, so this is non-scientific, not to mention mostly useless. Only the Michigan teams and Clemson played anybody of worth, so take this with an enormous grain of salt. There are probably 15-20 teams that could qualify for the 15-25 range in the rankings, but most of that will get settled before the end of September.
Rank
Team
1
Alabama
2
LSU
3
USC
4
Oregon
5
West Virginia
6
Florida State
7
Georgia
8
South Carolina
9
Michigan State
10
Oklahoma
11
Clemson
12
Texas
13
Virginia Tech
14
Wisconsin
15
Nebraska
16
Arkansas
17
Oklahoma State
18
TCU
19
Michigan
20
Ohio State
21
Stanford
22
Missouri
23
Florida
24
Utah
25
Louisville
Out: Boise State, Kansas State Idle: TCU (come on, guys...taking a break already?)
The week of meh. Unless your team's name rhymes with "Schmalabama Flimson Hide", odds are your team looked mediocre, whether in victory or defeat. Wisconsin, Iowa, Florida, Arkansas, Texas (for a while), Oklahoma...these are teams that didn't exactly overwhelm in college football's opening weekend. Also, Michigan, but you know about that. It's still way too early to judge anybody in college football.
Virginia Tech-Georgia Tech: FREEEE FOOOTBALLLL. Last night's game was a bit of a snoozer for about 3.5 quarters before the fireworks near the end (no, I'm not talking about the actual fireworks that were shot off when VT kicked a field goal to tie as regulation time expired and another to win it in OT). I ranked this the top intra-divisional game for the Coastal, and it didn't disappoint. I just wish that it didn't have to basically end on a derpy Tevin Washington INT, but oh well. VT survives, and that's what counts.
The Big Ten is turrible. Nebraska thumped Southern Miss, Ohio State beat Miami (OH) with ease, and Michigan State gritted its way through a win against a revamped Boise State team. Other than that, the B1G had a pretty rough week. Minnesota took 3 overtimes to beat UNLV, Wisconsin and Iowa beat Northern Illinois and Northern Iowa by a combined six points, and Penn State fell against Ohio. On the bright side, Indiana, Illinois, and Purdue won, not to mention my soon-to-be-second-school Northwestern Wildcats, a tremendous victory that almost wasn't. KAIN COLTER FOR HEISMAN. Also on the bright side: Michigan is in the Big Ten. We play those teams.
Droll Tide. It's getting downright boring talking about how ridiculously good Alabama football is, but man...they're good. Good luck, SEC. Have fun with that. Alabama jumps up to #1 on my list, although LSU does look to be pretty formidable as well; LSU's tandem of defensive ends, Barkevious Mingo and Sam Montgomery, has to be the best in the country.
Tier 2. After the first tier of teams--'Bama, LSU, and USC--Oregon and West Virginia are definitely at the top of the second group. Against Arkansas State and Marshall, the Ducks and Mountaineers scored 59 and 69 points, respectively. However, each did give up quite a bit on defense as well (34 points each). More often that not, however, these teams will be able to outscore the competition; this is the antithesis of Saban-ball.
Clemson not Clemson-ing. "Clemson still hasn't lost" was a frequent refrain here last season, and it might be that way again. Clemson has beaten Auburn for a second time in a row (dating back to last season's victory at home). Auburn QB Kiehl Frazier put up a stat line almost identical to Denard's, which is not a good thing. Clemson was without Sammy Watkins, mind you, but DeAndre Hopkins picked up the slack (13 rec., 113 yards, 1 TD). Auburn ran the ball relatively well, but Frazier couldn't do much through the air other than one 54-yard TD strike in the first quarter. Auburn is most likely looking at another mediocre season this year. In a conference stocked with talented running backs, giving up 231 yards to Clemson's Andre Ellington does not bode well for Auburn's run D against SEC West foes like LSU (Blue and Hilliard), Alabama (Lacy, Fowler, Yeldon, and Hart), and Arkansas (Davis). Scott Loeffler, Auburn OC/former John Navarre whisperer, also has his work cut out for him in that he, like Michigan, is working with offensive personnel recruited for an offense that isn't his own.
Something to make you feel slightly worse than you already do. In the first game of the post-RGIII era in Waco, a Nick Florence-led Baylor team walloped SMU, 59-24. Florence threw four touchdown passes, his last one being a 37-yard strike to...Darryl Stonum. Stonum only had 6 receiving touchdowns during his time in Ann Arbor; with Florence slinging it all over the place in Art Briles's offense, I wouldn't be surprised to see Stonum double his career TD total this season.
Brief note: I will attempt ("attempt" being the key word) to have these preview posts up on Friday each week around lunchtime. The grad school thing may prevent that from happening, but we'll see how it goes. I should be good to go for about the first month...after that, things might get a little dicier. The Exposition
I spent my high school years in Alabama, coinciding exactly with the Mike Shula era. This was a few months after the Mike Price fiasco, not to mention Dennis Franchione's controversial departure for Texas A&M a few months before that. Add NCAA sanctions to the mix and a new head coach in Shula* (who had been a career NFL guy to that point, and never a head coach), and you could say that things were not turning up Milhouse.
At the same time, my high school years as a Michigan fan were about as good as you could ask of your program within a 4-year window. John Navarre went out and won a Big Ten championship in 2003 to spite his squawking detractors, and Chad Henne rode piggybacked on Braylon Edwards's back in 2004 en route to another one. The 2005 season, "The Year of Infinite Pain", according to Brian, was a paper cut compared to the total system breakdown that was the Rich Rodriguez era. My final season as a high schooler was the 2006 season, of which I don't need to tell you about.
Michigan going 0-4 in its bowl games during that time put a bit of a damper on things, but it was an all around great time to be a Michigan fan, especially one living in Alabama. In retrospect, it seems almost unthinkable for Alabama to have a 4-win season and two 6-win seasons in a 4-year span, but it happened between 2003 and 2006.
Enter Nick Saban, and that's enough of that whole losing and not being mistake-free cybernetic organisms thing. Say what you will about oversigning, but there is no denying that Saban is one of the best defensive minds in the game. In five seasons, Saban has compiled a 55-12 record; half of those losses came in his first season. Simply put, Alabama has been the best team in the country since Saban arrived in Tuscaloosa.
Needless to say, in nine years, a whole lot has changed; this isn't 2003, anymore.
*Amusingly, he is now the QB coach for the Carolina Panthers, coaching one Cam Newton. Life has a funny way of working out sometimes.
Michigan Offense vs. Alabama Defense A note: I started writing this on Tuesday. I am assuming that Toussaint is not going to play, for what it's worth. The same goes for Frank Clark.
It's hard to decide which Michigan unit has a better chance of getting anything done in this game. As I detailed throughout the summer, this Alabama team is about as talented and athletic as you would expect. So, what's the catch? There is a catch, right?
Maybe, maybe not. Ask any Alabama fan about their defense and they will talk to you about RELOADING and 5-star recruits everywhere and how this ain't 2010 (when Alabama had to replace a similar amount of premium defensive talent and then went on to have a "disappointing" 3-loss season). Well, most of it is in fact true. Alabama is talented, and at certain positions, they will rotate guys in and out with relative ease.
However, some Alabama fans are just being unreasonable. I'm sorry. That's not to say that Alabama's defense won't be good (keep in mind that that 2010 defense was still very good) because they absolutely will, or that a defense that is a cut or two below last year's wouldn't still hold Michigan to a relatively low point total.
The simple fact is, no, Alabama fans, your defense will not be as good as last year's was. Then again, last year's defense was historically good, not just good in the context of the 2011 season. Some slippage can be reasonably expected, especially when replacing 7 defensive starters. Yes, I do understand that some of the players replacing these guys have seen some game action (for example, starting corner Dee Milliner), but not all of these guys have gotten meaningful playing time. Adrian Hubbard at SLB, Quinton Dial (was a rotational type guy last year that will be a half-starter along with Ed Stinson at one end position), Deion Belue is a JUCO guy in his first season in Tuscaloosa and a starting corner, Vinnie Sunseri is a true sophomore who did play some last season but has enormous shoes to fill at strong safety, etc.
As you probably know by know, Nick Saban is an evil genius whose defenses run with Gradgrindian efficiency; it's going to be "hard times"** for Michigan indeed if the OL consistently lets rushers through en route to clean shots on Denard. That cannot happen, especially early on in the contest. Nick Saban's Alabama defenses are known for their base 3-4, but Alabama is a fairly "multiple" team. The will also likely throw the 4-3 at us, the 5-2 (with two "Jack"*** linebackers on the field at once), and passing downs have their own special wrinkles for nickle packages. Alabama will throw a lot of different things, and Borges has ostensibly does his homework on all of them. That said, being ready to combat and execute these defensive looks is another battle entirely. FWIW, here's a useful video of Saban explaining the basis for the "Star" and "Money" positions in Alabama's nickel and dime looks.
Some Crimson Tide defenders to focus on at each level of the defense: 6'4'' 320lb. seniorNG Jesse Williams (he's a position switcher moving over from end, although he did play nose in his JUCO days), 6'2'' 232 lb. junior CJ Mosley at ILB (he's not nominally a starter but he basically is based on how much he will actually play, especially against a spread spread-ish team like Michigan), and 6'0'' 215 sophomore strong saftey Vinnie Sunseri (son of a coach!). Mosley in particular is a player to pay attention to when he's on the field. He's not technically a starter, but he's probably Alabama's best linebacker, and he will be on the field in passing situations. He's also Alabama's fastest backer, so expect him to do a lot of this when Denard does dump it off:
Don't get me wrong, I love Vincent Smith, but I'm not sure he will be able to shake Mosley on the edge. However, I think a guy like Justice Hayes could do some damage in this capacity, although that is admittedly based purely on recruiting hype at this point.
If Michigan (i.e. Barnum+Omameh/Mealer) cannot contain the Balrog that is Jesse Williams from getting into the backfield or render him irrelevant by attacking the edges and taking our chances there, it's going to be a long, long day. Remember this picture?
With the pressure that Alabama is sure to bring with the Jack linebacker, bringing Sunseri down into the box, and all other sorts of defensive sorcery, things could very well look like the picture above. I think Denard would agree with me: that is not something we want to happen. Alabama has spent the last few weeks talking about how they're coming for Denard, and why wouldn't they? Unless propelled by magic (4th quarter of the ND game, the entire VT game), if you key on Denard and force him to pass, things probably get ugly. Obviously, that is easier said than done, since not every team has the pure talent to force Michigan's hand in that way. Alabama, like Michigan State, certainly does.
Analogy time! Hoke:defensive line coaching::Nick Saban:defensive backs. Saban and DC Kirby Smart have supreme confidence in their DBs, which is not unreasonable given the talent they have at their disposal and the fact that Saban might be the best and most meticulous teacher of DB technique in the country. It's his special pet project amongst all other coaching duties, much like the DL is to Hoke.
A perfect example of this confidence is the Cover 1 Robber defense, which Chris Brown of Smart Football discussed in his book released earlier this summer (and summarized excellently by this MGoBlog diary). Alabama will put its corners in man coverage with regularity, and this decision is only strengthened by the fact that Michigan's top two receivers are Roy Roundtree and Jeremy Gallon. No offense to either player, but I imagine that neither exactly strikes fear in Saban's robot ersatz heart.
Want to see the Cover 1 Robber in action? You have seen it before, and I apologize in advance for this. If you'll remember, I recently linked to this excellent post from The Only Colors on the now infamous Double A-Gap blitz. Therein, a discussion of one variant, the Cover 1 Robber, was explained in detail. Guess which play that was:
As surprisingly complicated and variegated as that particular blitz is, you can be sure that Alabama has many like this one lined up and ready to go. Denard et al need to have their hot route cues down pat, or the above will very likely occur at some point.
I don't think that Michigan will have much success attacking the middle with the ground game...at least early on. Alabama stuffed everyone, even LSU's paleolithic but effective power running game, and I think that we should expect different results. I don't think that Borges is foolish enough to do this, but if Michigan lines up in the I and attempts to run any sort of traditional power run, you can bet that thousands of Michigan fans will all be throwing up their hands in unison. Unless we're in a short yardage or goal line situation, Michigan cannot afford to waste precious plays by plugging away up the middle. This isn't the 1990s: lightning bolts will not rain down on your head if you don't run to set up the pass.
The problem with that is Michigan has Denard Robinson, who, aside from being a transcendent runner with a fantastic smile, has had some basic mechanical issues in the passing game, not mention trouble reading defenses and reacting to pressure. All of these things do sound like a recipe for disaster against a defense like Alabama's, but we have to assume that Denard has improved throughout the offseason. Playing like he did against Nebraska and Ohio State would be a start, but that's all it would be. The same gaping holes that were there against the Huskers and Buckeyes likely won't be there against Alabama, and if they are they will be closing up a little more quickly.
So, what are the options? Really, there aren't many that don't involve pinpoint execution and, quite frankly, not getting blown back at the point of attack. If either happen, it's over. An UTL-esque miracle is just not going to happen against this team.
**ELITIST REFERENCES PAWLLLL
***FYI, the JLB is basically the pass-rushing linebacker; last year, it was Courtney Upshaw. Michigan Defense vs. Alabama Offense
We've had a couple relatively surprising moves on the defensive side of the ball come to light in the last week. First, Quinton Washington will be playing at the nose position and starting. Next to him is William Campbell, who was going to be play nose until the coaches eventually came to the realization that Black at the 3-tech just wasn't going to work. As such, BWC to the 3-tech and Black back to WDE it is. We won't truly know what the two-deep is actually like until the games begin, but, for now, Black's move is one more obstacle between Mario Ojemudia having to take the field against an Alabama team with a Brobdingnagian offensive line.
Speaking of the offensive line: they are huge. I previewed this position group way back in early April, and not much has changed (actually, nothing has). If you didn't already know, 2011 All-American LT Barrett Jones made the move to center to make room for Cyrus Kouandjio, which speaks to how highly the coaches think of the latter. This is the second move that Jones has mode (he was once a guard), so while position switches are often uncomfortable propositions, Jones has always been lauded as a smart guy and should be more than alright.
Alabama has a bevy of talented tailbacks and wide receivers. Like the secondary and linebackers, experience is the primary issue with most of these guys, although they are by no means completely green. None of these guys are Trent Richardson or Julio Jones, but they might not need to be if the ground game has worn Michigan down as I'm sure Alabama is intending to do.
You probably know about Eddie Lacy by now. He was Alabama's #3 in 2010, Richardson's backup last season, and should be the feature back this season. A pesky injury kept him out of most of spring ball, IIRC (including the A-Day scrimmage), and has still seemed to be banged up as recently as the last week or two. I linked to a video of him doing a short drill with a fairly significant amount of tape on his ankle, which may or may not mean anything.
Saban has used the words "day-to-day", and the fact that he'd be "ready to go in 5 or 6 days"...he said this on August 18th. The more time that passes, the more I get the feeling that he won't be 100% on 9/1. If that is the case, our old friend RS freshman Dee Hart and true freshman TJ Yeldon become the next guys in line. Jalston Fowler, Alabama's #3 last year and the Tide's top mooseback, appears to have made the move to H-back, where walk-on Kelly Johnson has won the starting role in what can be considered the shocker of fall camp (it hasn't been that exciting of a fall camp). Johnson has big shoes to fill, as the H-back is a very important player in Alabama's offense, which should basically stay the same despite the hiring of former Washington OC Doug Nussmeier (last year's OC, Jim McElwain, departed for the Colorado State head coaching job). Brad Smelley was a big time target for McCarron last season on key third downs (he was Alabama's second-most productive receiver in 2011). It's unreasonable to expect Johnson to be as good as Smelley, but he did win the starting nod, so he must be doing something right.
At receiver, Alabama appears to be rolling with 6'0'' 185 sophomore DeAndrew White and 6'2'' 195 junior Kevin Norwood at the "X" and "Z" positions, with 5'11'' 185 sophomore Christion Jones taking the "H" receiver position (i.e. the slot). I was somewhat surprised to see White win the starting over Kenny Bell, Alabama's leading returning receiver, but I'm not sure that it matters much. Bell is a physical, athletic receiver, and McCarron looked to him downfield on occasion last year. AJ and Bell hooked up for a 39-yard and 41-yard TD against Tennessee and Auburn (a flea flicker, FWIW) respectively. Fast forward to 0:35 in the video below to see this in action.
Anywho, Alabama has more, but to continue to name them would be overkill. Here's the thing. Alabama's offense is a little more complicated than it may seem, but in the end this game will be all about those things that make us roll our eyes when guys like Merill Hoge talk about them: toughness, resilience, the ability to bend but not break, completely unironic GRIT. If Michigan is going to get this done, it probably won't be pretty. Alabama will pick up yards on the ground and, inevitably, through the air when Mattison is forced to bring increasingly crazier and riskier blitzes. However, if Michigan can hunker down once Alabama cross the M's 30, not unlike the Sugar Bowl, then I'm saying there's a chance.
I mentioned this back when I took a look at Alabama's quarterbacks and I'll say it again: McCarron is a better player than many Michigan fans are probably giving him credit for. He's a solid player, and yeah, sure, having that team around him certainly helps. However, all you need to do to realize that being a QB for such a team is not so easy is to recall LSU's 2011 season. The quarterbacking during the national title game was so rough that folks with no stake in the result of the game (me, for example) began to plead all over the Internet for Les Miles to PUT IN THE OTHER GUY, a guy who is often known as Jarrett "Pick 6" Lee.
I mentioned that moving QW to nose and Black back to WDE was kind of like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic, but the more thought I give this configuration, the more I like it. That is 600+ pounds (607 according to MGoBlog's Fall Roster Overanalysis) of human being there in the middle. Will it be enough against an interior trio of Chance Warmack, Barrett Jones, and Anthony Steen? Maybe not, but I like Michigan's chances much better with QW than Black.
As for the ends, there was once a point when I was fairly optimistic about this group. Now, not so much. I'm having visions in my head of Beyer and Roh getting handled by Fluker and Kouandjio in the ground game and getting stonewalled in the pass rush, and who knows what kind of player Black will be after adding weight and spending so much practice time on the inside. At this point, any sort of pass rush that Michigan can get from the these guys is gravy, which is a pretty ominous thing to have to say.
With that said, things are rosier in the back 7 for Michigan. As far as tight ends go, Michael Williams is Alabama's starter. He doesn't seem to be anything extraordinary, but he is by no means a liability or anything. He was a red zone target against Penn State last season (and also the recipient of a fake field goal TD pass that Ace linked to here).
Otherwise, I feel pretty confident that Michigan's 'backers will match up in coverage. The only catch is the Williams is 6'6'' and a biscuit under 270. OF COURSE HE IS. When Alabama has Williams and an H-back in the game, odds are you are about to get smashed in the face. He's a blocker and possible red zone guy...basically, what we all hope AJ Williams will one day become.
I feel confident enough in Michigan's safeties not giving up the dreaded big play for the first half or so. But...after that, especially if Alabama has racked up enough yardage that plays like the above dart to Bell can happen? That is the moment that the game is over.
What Needs to Happen, Fergodsakes
On defense:
Say it with me now: bend but don't break.I'm sure Mattison has some tricks up his sleeve, but tricks can only do so much when the other team is simply bigger and faster. Michigan is not going to win the stat sheet battle. If Mattison's defense gives up 500 yards and manages to hold Alabama under 31, there is hope. Make them kick field goals (see: 2011 LSU game, Part 1).
Countess and Floyd. Please be in pre-OSU/VT form. Alabama has quite a few talented players at receiver, but I'm not really convinced that there is a star among them (certainly not a Julio type). This goes without saying, but given the probably lack of a front four pass rush, JT and Blake will be on an island more fairly often. The good news is that, after a year of Mattison's diabolical blitzes and aggressiveness verging on over-aggressiveness, they're probably up to the challenge.
Quinton and William. To put it simply, if these two look like they're on skates, there is simply no hope. Again, you can only scheme and mitigate your weaknesses so much. As Saturday approaches, I've become increasingly confident that they'll be able to hold up at least adequately; whether the linebackers can shed Warmack and Steen and tackle the ball carrier--whether an all-around talent like Lacy or a darty sort like Hart--is another story entirely. For the record, I'm fairly confident that Demens, Morgan, and Ryan will do a decent job. Jake Ryan, after QW and BWC, might be the most important player on Michigan's entire team in this game.
On offense:
No turnovers please. If Michigan turns the ball over, chances are a win is not happening. The margin for error is razor thin.
Get the passing game going early. My nightmare is that Michigan comes out, plugs away on the ground, fails miserably and then sees everything spiral out of control as Michigan tries to pass its way back in the game with a guy like Denard. The slant will be there, and Borges will call upon that old standby, the throwback screen to Gallon to start pushing the Alabama linebackers and safeties away from the LOS. Naturally, if that happens, that's where Denard goes to work. If there's 9 in the box, forget about it
Devin Gardner. The wild card-iest wild card who ever wild card'd. If he is a legitimate force at receiver, that could change everything. To be quite honest, after Milliner, the rest of Alabama's corners don't impress me as much as Alabama's new linebackers do. Also, I need to see Sunseri and Clinton-Dix in action before I deem them the second coming of Ronnie Lott. I think that Michigan might get some mileage out of the so called "QB Oh Noes" play, as Brian calls it, what with Sunseri looking to be an involved and aggressive player in the run game. Borges needs to scheme against that position.
Attack the edge, quickly. Yes, SEC speed and all that, but I think that it's just about a waste of time to try (past a token effort) to develop a between-the-tackles running game, at least in the first quarter or so. Michigan needs to be creative in its ground game, kind of like it was against Ohio State last November. Get numbers going to the edges and let's see how those pseudo-newbies at linebacker handle Denard. WR end arounds. Denard jet sweeps.
Trick plays. Let's see 'em. Seriously, Al. 2008 Capital One Bowl Redux, this needs to be.
Predictions of Negligible Worth
Making these sorts of predictions, especially for a game like this, is a torturous thing. A prediction is not really one data point that you pluck out of thin air. It's a deliberate whittling down of all results from a giant marble slab of possibility. My point: could I see everything going perfectly, Alabama having a bad day, and Michigan eeking out an incredibly ugly yet satisfying Sugar Bowl-esque win? Yes, I honestly can. Alabama is talented, and it speaks to the state of things that Michigan is such an underdog in spite of all the big name players that Alabama lost. In two or three years, this game will be an even contest going in, but we're not quite there yet. Still, this is a good Michigan team, and not one that should be underestimated.
With that said, too many things have to go well for Michigan to win this game. Michigan will probably need to have a turnover margin of at least +2. How likely is this? If this game is played ten times, Michigan probably has everything fall into place maybe once. That's what it is. We're banking on that one, that unlikely scenario, the "Jareth Glanda catching a pass" of games.
As much as it pains me to say it, I just can't make that prediction. To be able to stick it to the reigning national champs, the team that I had to spend four years hearing about as a high schooler, would be something beyond tremendous, if such a superlative even existed.
In the end, Michigan keeps it close for the first half, but without Toussaint, Michigan just won't have enough juice to keep enough drives going to make it a game. Even with Fitz, I'm not sure that Michigan has enough. It won't be pretty, but it won't be an outright blowout. At the same time, I don't think it will necessarily be "close." Michigan is a 13.5 point underdog, which, sadly, is just about right.
With football season upon us, its time for me to dust off the old computer and remember how to put multiple words together to make coherent sentences. I will update later with pictures.
Have we ever seen them before?
The Wolverines have played the Crimson Tide three times. All three games were bowl games, so this is the first time playing during the regular season.
In the 1999 season, Michigan went 9-2 and reached their first BCS Bowl game: the Orange Bowl. Alabama managed to lose to Louisiana Tech, yet they still ran through the SEC on their way to a SEC Championship, and the automatic bid to the BCS. On January 1, 2000, the Mike DuBose coached Crimson Tide took a 14 - 0 lead after two Shaun Alexander touchdowns. Tom Brady responded with two straight touchdown passes to David Terrell. Shaun Alexander responded with a 50 yard run. Freddie Milons returned a punt for a touchdown to put Alabama up 28 - 14. Another pass from Brady to Terrell would make the game 28 - 21, and a three yard rush by Anthony Thomas would tie the game at 28. The score would stay that way until overtime, where Brady through a 25 yard touchdown to Shawn Thompson. Alabama would answer with a pass from Andrew Zow to Antonio Carter. Surprisingly, this would be the last possession of the game, as Ryan Pflugner, Alabama's kicker, missed the extra point, clinching the victory for Michigan.
Jump to 6:10 to see the missed kick followed by a familiar face or two.
What do they look like?
Like Michigan, the Alabama Crimson Tide have looked the same throughout the modern era of football. Their continuous use of the exact same uniform since the 1940s is something the rest of the nation should be envious about. I cannot find a single use of an alternate uniform worn by Alabama, and they have one of the most boring uniform history timelines in all of college football (if not all sports).
Alabama's colors are Crimson and White. Their home uniforms are Crimson with White numbers, and their road uniforms are White with Crimson numbers. No stripes, no shoulder numbers, no frills at all. Alabama (and Penn State) are the epitome of boring football jerseys, but I love it. I really enjoyed watching the Penn State vs. Alabama game the last two seasons.
Where does the name Crimson Tide come from?
Before 1906, Alabama's football team was either referred to as varsity or Crimson White. They were also nicknamed the Thin Red Line. In 1907, an editor at The Birmingham Age-Herald coined the phrase Crimson Tide when reporting on the Alabama vs. Auburn football game.
So they have two pretty iconic logos. What's up with that?
The Crimson Tide logos have always been interesting to me. They have one of if not the best alternate logos in the country with their script A. It has a unique font, and is an icon for the school as much as the block M is for Michigan.
Alabama also has an Elephant logo. There are a few accounts for the reason behind the Elephant mascot. In 1930, Rosenberger's Birmingham Trunk Company gave each member of the football team a red elephant luggage tag. When the team arrived in Pasedena for the Rose Bowl, reporters saw the elephant luggage tags and the enormous size of the players. They made a connection that would live on forever. That 1930 offensive line was also nicknamed the Red Elephants, as they went on to a 10 - 0 season.
Do they have good coaches?
Nick Saban may be one of the best coaches of all time, yet he is not the best coach in Alabama history. That recognition belongs to Paul "Bear" Bryant. Bryant was the Head Coach and Athletic Director at Alabama from 1957-1983. During his tenure, the Crimson Tide won 6 National Championships (including two repeats) and 15 Conference Championships. He was the AFCA Coach of the Year three times and the SEC Coach of the year twelve times, and in 1986, he was inducted to the College Football Hall of Fame.
Current head coach, Nick Saban, started his head coaching career at the University of Toledo. In one season he took the 6-5 Rockets and turned them into a 9 - 2 MAC Conference Co-Champion. After the season, Saban was hired by Bill Belichick to be the Cleveland Brown's Defensive Coordinator. After a few years in the NFL, Saban was hired to be the head coach at Michigan State. In his first four years at Michigan State, the Spartans had average records, but they were improving from the George Perles era in the early 90s. In 1999, the Spartans had a breakout season, going 9-2 and reaching the Citrus Bowl. Before the game, Saban resigned in order to take the head coaching job at LSU. During his time at Michigan State, Saban had a 2 - 3 record against the Michigan Wolverines.
In 1999, Big Ten Network's own Gerry DiNardo was the head coach at LSU, and lead the Tigers to a 3 - 8 record. Saban was brought in and the culture changed immediately. As the Tiger's head coach, Saban would go 48-16 with two SEC Championships and a National Championship. At the end of the 2004 season, Saban went to the NFL to coach the Miami Dolphins.
Once his two year dabble in the NFL was deemed a failure, Saban signed on to be the head coach at the University of Alabama. He had an embarrassing first season at Alabama, with a 7-6 record, including a loss to Louisiana-Monroe. After that season, Alabama would go on to be the national power that it is today. Two National Championships later and here we are.
Where do they play football?
The Crimson Tide play their home games at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. Originally just named Denny Stadium, the name was changed to honor Bear Bryant in 1975. The stadium has a capacity of 101,821. The stadium is right in the middle of their campus, surrounded by their fraternity houses. Leading up to the stadium is the Walk of Champions. There are statues of each of the five head coaches who have won National Championships at Alabama. The players and coaches walk through this before every game.
Do they have a goofy mascot?
An elephant mascot was first used at Alabama in the 1960s, when a student wore an elephant head costume to a game. The mascot, Big Al, appeared officially at the 1979 Sugar Bowl, and has been at every game since.
This year, Fou will be publishing a preview post on Friday, so I will leave the wrap-up to him. I will still give my prediction based on everything but football. Even though my simulated game of NCAA '13 has Michigan winning 35-3, my prediction is Alabama 24 - Michigan 14.
Just so y'all know where I'm at right now: yesterday, I went through my Insanity workout and only had to stop for a breather 2 or 3 times. Adrenaline level=HIGH.
Funny, I too think Denard is pretty great
The Roundtree is fully operational. Good news: Roy Roundtree is 100%, according to Roy Roundtree. Either the arthroscopic surgery he had on his left knee August 10th was as "minor" as is being said, or Roy Roundtree has in fact become a robot.
He knew when he took his first hit, and didn't feel a thing in the knee, that he would be good to go.
Also, displays a stoic, dare I say it robotic lack of emotion:
It was scary. My parents were really worried. I was like, ''Y'all don't have to come up here. I'm a big boy.''
This is an interesting strategy, becoming a robot. However, if there was a time to do it, it's now, as I'm convinced that Nick Saban has a secret T-1000 lab somewhere in Tuscaloosa where he produces space eating linemen and pass-rushing linebacker bots. Fair is fair.
Of course, given that the theme of the week is brinkmanship: if Robotree was in fact not 100%, I highly doubt he would be advertising that fact. Anyway, since he has apparently made the transformation, somebody should tell Brandon to get Roundtree that special "beating press coverage" system upgrade.*
*JUST KIDDING HURR BRANDON IS CHEAP DURR
Advanced stats and 2011 Alabama. I am admittedly somewhat behind the curve when it comes to advanced stats in college football (I'm a little more comfortable dealing with them in college basketball), so I'm not yet at a point where a lot of different stats mean much to me. With that said, even as someone without much of a statistical background, I know many people, especially in the Michigan fanbase, are all about that sort of thing. I'm not sure if this made the rounds a few weeks ago, but Brian Fremeau did an extensive FEI Profile of Alabama's 2011 team, producing lots of fancy charts and graphs for you to parse and marvel at how dominant last year's Alabama team was.** Seriously, take a look.
Near the end, there's a Michigan is advanced stats'd in the PFEI section ("program rating"...technical explanation included therein). Check it out. I'm pretty sure if you just stare at the screen long enough, you'll absorb the information contained therein via osmosis (pretty sure that's how that works).
**Also, be happy that Michigan is not facing that team, and no Alabama fan, your defense is not going to be "as good if not better" than last year's defense (people are actually saying this). Stop it.
HE AIN'T RESPECTIN' US PAWWLLLLL. This is why Brady Hoke is awesome. On whether or not he perceives Michigan to be the underdog, said "no" and then expanded a bit on that answer (and I truly mean "a bit"):
“I like Michigan,” Hoke said. There was a brief silence at the roundtable, and reporters quickly realized there was no further explanation coming, so they changed the subject.
One of these days I would really love for Hoke to say this sort of thing, detach the microphone from the podium--behind which he awkwardly yet authoritatively stands like a grizzly bear in a polo shirt--and just drop that thing. Could you imagine? No, no you can't, because it would just be too much for one brain to handle.
Actual underdogs. Matt Hinton comes in with his first non-introductory (reintroductory, I guess) post, talking about the state of the "underdog" in the current landscape of college football. It is as detailed and well-written as you'd expect, and is food for the college football fan's soul. I'm not talking like "bro I watched 3 straight hours of SportsCenter last night wanna debate and trade sports takes?" kind of "hardcore" fan, the kind that takes the team to learn Generic Small School With An Insane Economic and Traditional Disadvantage's QB's name, and the offensive coordinator's, and said team's 2011 record, and so on. In the middle of this post, however, is a pretty cool little detail:
The best candidate to break through: SMU defensive end Margus Hunt, a former Estonian discus champion who was offered a scholarship by June Jones before Hunt had ever played a down of organized football, based on a workout after plans to revive the Mustangs' men's track-and-field team fell through.
Estonian discus champion. Need I say more?
Alabama depth chart speculatin'. It doesn't seem that Alabama has released an official depth chart yet, and won't until who knows when (it was supposed to have been yesterday, but that didn't happen). As such, everybody is left to their speculative devices. Andrew Gribble of al.com takes a stab at naming the Tide's 22 starters. No real surprises there, although I have to question Deandrew White starting opposite Kevin Norwood. I think either Kenny Bell or Christion Jones get the starting nod, but in the end it really doesn't matter. All of these guys will play, especially since it seems like Alabama doesn't have a prototypical H-back to replace Brad Smelley's production (an underrated presence in Alabama's 2011 offense).
The same goes for the defense, obviously. Quinton Dial might start, but expect to see a lot of Ed Stinson at that end position (a guy who formerly played the "Jack" LB position). At linebacker, CJ Mosley might not be a starter but he'll be in there as Alabama's speedster, passing down 'backer; I get the feeling that Denard and Mosley might become close friends by the end of the night.
In case you were wondering, here's another update on the Alabama scout team guys wearing Michigan players' numbers thing: three guys have taken up the numbers 44, 25, and 90. The more you know.
"Summer, I broke everybody down. I kind of work with one of our GAs, Jeff Norrid. He helps me a bunch. He knows everything there is about defense," McCarron said. "Through the summer, we broke each opponent down week by week but probably in the past two, two-and-a-half weeks, we've watched ton of film on (Michigan). Me and him are up here at least 3 1/2, four hours a day. We'll come an hour or so before practice and then the rest after. So we've done a tremendous amount of breaking them down."
Also, a moderately interesting point (i.e. not completely sanitized coachspeak) from the head coach himself:
UA coach Nick Saban said the Wolverines' third down defense is what he called "pro style."
Of course, as Spielman's pleading near the end of the Ohio State game goes to show you, going with a "pro style" (i.e. more complex) scheme is not always the best idea. Still, things worked out pretty well last year, and Michigan is looking at a serious upgrade in overall talent and athleticism across the board, making those pro style schemes even more effective than they were last season.
In any case, it will be interesting to see what Mattison's gameplan for this Alabama offense will be. How much Okie will we see, for instance? Aggressiveness is an inherent part of his defensive mindset, and with the strength of Alabama's offensive line, it might be "sell out [on the run] or get out." But, I'll leave my probably uninformed opinions on the game itself for the preview post on Friday.
More? Hinton on the Toussaint "will he or won't he" thing. Not going to read the comments, not going to read the comments, not going to read the comments. Roll Bama Roll Hate Week thread with the hurr and the durr. I wonder if Michigan fans know that they all worship Kid Rock.
Basketball coverage will sadly go back to being very minimal here for a few months, but here are some notes on Michigan's finally updated roster from UMHoops. A couple height/weight points of interest there.
Can Michigan be better in 2012 but finish with a worse record than in 2011? Absolutely. That's the risk Michigan took by scheduling Alabama to open the season. No matter the result in Arlington, Texas, the future looks bright in Ann Arbor. The most important thing for Michigan is the Legends Division, because winning that gives the Wolverines a shot to return to the Rose Bowl. The key stretch for Michigan will come in late October, when they face Michigan State at the Big House a week before traveling to Lincoln to face Nebraska. The Wolverines need to break Michigan State's four-year stranglehold on that rivalry, but if they do, they can't relax. If they can go 2-0 in that stretch, they might reach Pasadena by way of Indianapolis.
On a serious note, there's not a whole lot in Staple's B1G preview that I disagree with. I think Michigan settles in at 9-3 this season, which, in my humble opinion, would be a very solid second year all things considered. As for Michigan State, I've been feeling some major cognitive dissonance. On the one hand, I think that losing an experienced player like Cousins is a big deal, and then I look at that defense and just think "eh, Maxwell should be okay." With that said, 11-1 for MSU might be asking a lot after losing every notable receiver, Cousins, and Jerel Worthy (and Trenton Robinson). The Spartans will be good and I'm leaning towards picking them to win the division right now but 11-1 might be a little too lofty of a prediction.
Perhaps this explains why a belief in sympathetic magic—irrational, superstitious, glorious—continues unabated in our hyperrationalist age. If anything, the ascendancy of science has clarified these beliefs, and the degree to which we’re willing to cling to them despite a cognitive awareness of the fallacious nature of magic.
Leave your FEI numbers, completion percentages, and proper mechanics at the door: this is the comforting, irrational, often fantastically irreproducible age of magic.
The Okie package is one of pure havoc. Mattison likes bringing the heat (again from Brown's piece in HTTV: "Mattison frequently stated that on third down he believes in one thing: pressure"), and one of his favorite ways to do it is with mass confusion. The Okie package is a perfect example of that, as it is the kind of hellish, quarterback-nightmare inducing formation that can bring pressure from any of seven different defenders.
Every DC in the history of football when hired will pay lip service to the following things: playing aggressively, playing fast, wanting to bring pressure, harass the quarterback, etc. The 2011 season was proof that Mattison wasn't messing around about all of that. I mean, if the end of the Ohio State game wasn't proof enough--what with Chris Spielman being all exasperated about why Mattison was bringing so much pressure on OSU's final drive--then I don't what is.
Anyway, go read the whole post. Be thankful for having nice things like "coordinators that know what they're doing" because before you know it you're rolling around on the floor crying while Greg Robinson leads your defense into battle with a stuffed animal.
Stories about the speed of special teams gunners...are appearing on the Internet. Apparently, Nick Saban wants his gunners to be big and fast. "Oversigning" "cheating" "ESSS EEE CEEE SPEED" "PAWWLLL"<-----there, I have provided you with all the ingredients for a nice joke stew. Doesn't really matter what order you throw 'em in there, the joke always comes out the same way.
It is August 21st. I don't know how many days it's been since we landed here on Offseason Island, but I pray that they come for us soon. I can only read previews of Conference USA teams for so much longer.
"University of Michigan ranked as having a packed stadium, good libraries and a great hometown." That is the headline of this annarbor.com article. I wonder: did they only begin collecting the data for this survey of student packed-nessafter the end of the first quarter of every game? (Because they only show up after that point, you see.)
Back to the headline, though. I like it. It sounds like something a really confused person trying to be nice would say. "Orlando is ranked as having long amusement park lines, good weather, and a great place to live if you want to live in a place called Orlando."
That said, Ann Arbor is awesome and deserving of such lofty praise. From its tremendous libraries to its student apathy vis-a-vis athletics, Ann Arbor just the type of place that makes you want to scale a mountain and yell about it. Man, I miss Ann Arbor.
More? Looking forward to Michael Cox running for 20 yards on one play and in the completely wrong direction on the next one. Dan Greene of SI.com provides you with yet another preview of Team 133 to read. Something I learned: Craig Roh can breathe through his nose now. That is a good thing to be able to do. On a serious note, um...I honestly had no idea that Roh was even thinking about transferring/quitting at one point.
Boise State comes in at #13 on Pre-Snap Read's countdown...Boise, Utah, and Kansas State all come in ranked ahead of Michigan. Now, I don't think Michigan is top 10 material or anything, but I don't know about those teams being ahead of the Wolverines, PAWL Myerberg.
FSU trivia to impress your friends with. Question: who was the last Florida State wide receiver/tailback to catch/rush for 1,000 yards in a single season? I'll give you a second. Done pretending to think? Well, if you said Anquan Boldin and Warrick Dunn, you are either: a) a FSU fan b) Phil Steele or something or c) somebody who just pulled the "smart phone under the table on trivia night" cheating maneuver.
If you didn't know the answer, then you are probably a little bit shocked (at least I was, particularly with the answer for tailback. Warrick Dunn? Wow. I'm not sure there is another bit of trivia that truly shows how far FSU had fallen during the last five or six years of the Bowden era. Matt Hinton writes writes this year's "Is FSU for real?" post, which is especially topical after I, for the second year in a row, plugged my nose and picked FSU to do some nice things in 2012:
The skill positions have been no less of a revolving door. Devonta Freeman and Rashad Greene were encouraging in their debuts, but hardly revelatory enough to peg either as an emerging star in an offense that has had astonishingly few of them over the last decade: FSU hasn't produced a 1,000-yard receiver since Anquan Boldin in 2002, or a 1,000-yard rusher since Warrick Dunn in 1996.
Kind of crazy, right?
Hey, you guys. Did you know that people in the South care so much about football? It's true. They just want it more. That's why they're so good. Rick Bragg, author of All Over But The Shoutin', actually wrote this:
An award-winning author of books on Southern history, Rable is not a native Southerner but grew up in another football incubator, in Lima, Ohio, in the swirl of Ohio State-Michigan, rooting for the Buckeyes. He came down here to see real obsession. He once exited Tiger Stadium as the faithful chanted: "Go to hell, Ole Miss, go to hell."
"And," he says, "we weren't playing Ole Miss."
Ah, yes. "Real obsession." That can definitely only be found in Dixie.
It's difficult to be too hard on Bragg because he is speaking as a sort of chronicler of the South as opposed to an active participant and/or endorser of its most ridiculous manifestations of insanity. He even mentions that he does not tie his worth to the outcome of the game, which is a nice sentiment that I like because many people have that problem.
Still, the entire piece was tiresome, worse, even, than an SEC team's fans chanting "S-E-C!" after a bowl victory instead of singing their school's fight song. Thankfully, we have Spencer Hall to make fun of these sorts of caricaturized, hackneyed drivel:
One time, COLORFUL REGIONAL ANECDOTE.
My uncle once worked at a turtle factory, where they make turtles and sometimes shotguns and pies. South Carolina had just beaten Georgia, and the plant manager was a big ol' South Carolina fan. He was just standing there, a-hootin' and a-hollerin' about, "woooo Go Cocks" when my uncle just up and popped him in the temple with a .38. THAT'S DEDICATION. Second degree manslaughter got the word "laughter" in it, and that's something I learned by watching Gallagher.
Homespun folk wisdom for its own sake, devoid of real depth or any sort of probing complexity, is an unfortunate way to have to describe something written by a dyed-in-the-wool Southerner like Bragg. I almost feel bad striking at something that is obviously heartfelt, but it is lazy writing, not to mention a passive-aggressive, literarily dressed up version of hollering "S-E-C" over and over again in some poor Yankee's face. On "luck." In light of this week's Big 12 previews and the discussion of "luck" with respect to Kansas State's win total and Oklahoma State's defense (i.e. TO margin), this post from Bill C on the issue of luck pertaining to Oklahoma State's 2011 defensive performance was fairly topical:
Let's summarize: Oklahoma State's defense was absolutely a bit lucky in 2011. They picked off about five more passes than they probably should have, and they recovered about four more fumbles than they probably should have. A swing of nine turnovers can obviously make an enormous difference over the course of the season. (They did, after all, benefit from about 3.4 turnover luck points per game.) That said, this defense wasn't based entirely on lucky bounces. Yes, OSU allowed a ton of yards. (They ranked 107th in yards per game allowed.) That's what happens when you a) face Arizona, Tulsa, Texas A&M, Missouri, Baylor, Kansas State, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Stanford, and b) do so with your own offense running at a nuclear pace (and therefore face a ton of plays).
Michigan was also lucky last season, in the colloquial sense as well as the statistical "well that probably wouldn't have happened in most trials" one. Per Bill C, thing that are not attributable to luck include defending passes (i.e. interceptions+PBUs) and forced fumbles. Things that are mostly luck-based? Fumble recovery and interceptions. The whole "is fumble recovery rate mostly luck?" debate is one that has raged on many times at MGoBlog, and the best answer that I can come up with is this: it is luck and it isn't, which isn't much of an answer at all. Is a certain outcome attributable to "luck" if that outcome's likelihood (i.e. a recovered fumble) can be increased with a specific and narrow focus from a coaching staff? I would say yes and no. You can practice it, but at the end of the day a football is a prolate spheroid that bounces without rhyme or reason, and when you throw a pile of 250-320 pound dudes into the equation, cause and effect is like in a jungle of white noise. Something something preparation something opportunity.
As we all know, Michigan was tied for first in fumble recoveries last year with, you guessed it...Oklahoma State. I will be completely honest. I have the utmost confidence in these coaches, but there's a bubbling undercurrent of worry when you combine the above, the loss of 75% of the defensive line, and a frightening lack of depth at several positions. On the bright side, there aren't very many Big Ten offenses that appear to be exceedingly scary.
Underneath Michigan's #6 scoring defense was a team that was 36th in 3rd down conversion percentage defense, 39th in run defense, and, as mentioned, 1st in fumble recoveries. Against the better offenses on the schedule, namely Notre Dame and Virginia Tech (and Ohio State, obviously), Michigan was decidedly a bend-but-don't break group. Take Martin, RVB, and Heininger away from that defense and that dam starts to get quite a bit leakier, the margin of error smaller.
Of course, guys have gotten better over the summer. I don't mean this to be completely doom and gloom. Michigan's back 7, while not exactly supremely athletic, returns intact and should be very good. The defensive line has its own questions: Campbell, Roh's move to SDE, Ryan's potential move to WDE, Jibreel Black on the inside, whether or not guys like Washington give us anything, and the overall readiness of Ondre Pipkins.
Instead of thinking about the dispassionate pendulum of turnover "luck" swinging back the other way counter to Michigan's interests, I'm just going to keep saying "trust the coaches" and playing the Jake Ryan running down David Wilson play over and over until September 1st.
Alabama secondary. Some general fluff about the Alabama secondary, Saban's favorite positional group and object of much spleen and OCD-ing. As mentioned in exhaustive detail during the position previews that I did a while back, the Tide have to replace three starters in the secondary, all NFL draft picks (Dre Kirkpatrick, Mark Barron, DeQuan Menzie). FS Robert Lester returns, but somebody needs to fill the shoes of the departed top-10 pick Mark Barron at SS. DC Kirby Smart on Vinnie Sunseri (son of new Tennessee DC Sal Sunseri):
"He's not Mark Barron, he's not trying to be Mark Barron; he's trying to be Vinnie and he's done that well," Smart said. "He makes a lot of big plays."
Well, we'll see about that. As for Sunseri's challengers:
Sophomore HaHa Clinton-Dix should also see significant action, especially when Alabama goes to its nickel and dime packages. Five-star freshman Landon Collins, who boasts a strong 6-foot, 202-pound frame, certainly looks the part of an SEC safety but will have to pick up Saban's and Smart's system quickly if he hopes to make an immediate impact.
Clinton-Dix has been talked about as an option at corner as well, so this is no surprise. Either way, all options here are very talented but young and inexperienced. I would imagine that Al Borges would have to find a way to scheme against this relative weakness (and I mean relative).
IT'S RAWLS-ERRING TIME. First of all, official position re: Toussaint. If he plays against Alabama, I would be fairly disappointed.
With that out of the way, I've already figured Toussaint's absence for that game into my worldview, so it's time to think about the backups. Al Borges made an explicit nod to sophomore mooseback Thomas Rawls, which isn't so much a depth chart surprise, really, but an explicit nod from this coaching staff is something worth clinging to on this day, August 9th, 2 Anno Hokeini.
"We're just going to the next guy -- we're not really changing anything," Borges said during a news conference at Schembechler Hall. "Thomas Rawls is going to be that next guy. Vince is going to do what he's done, and on we go.
Ramp up the speculation machine, but I have to think that Toussaint is not playing on September 1st. Anyway, in theory a guy like Rawls being Michigan's main option is nice against a team like Alabama. In theory. For a power back to get anything going, you need a line built to block for that sort of back, something that Michigan decidedly does not have. I don't care how "angry" Rawls runs, but I'm pretty much having visions of Rawls having to run through guys in the backfield just to get back to the line of scrimmage. A power back that hasn't really proven anything other than the fact that he can run over Jarrod Wilson plus a line that is good to very end at tackle but not exactly powerful in the interior, seems to me a recipe for a 10-12 carry, thirty-something type performance.
For some reason, I think that Stephen Hopkins will have his number called many times on 9/1. Michigan needs to do just enough to afford Denard some credibility and a modicum of space when he does in fact tuck it and run. Borges name dropped Rawls, Vincent Smith, and Justice Hayes, but I think Hopkins has to have his best game of his career of Michigan is going to even match their anemic Sugar Bowl output.
More? UMHoops on Zak Irvin's summer. Spoiler alert: he's very good. Dana Holgorsen got himself a 6-year extension at WVU. That noise was the collective resigned exhalation of Big 12 defensive coordinators everywhere.
From Stewart Mandel's mailbag, he says that Michigan "probably should [be ranked #1]" if Michigan beats Alabama. That would be cool.
Hello, Internet. I am Fouad Egbaria, a Michigan grad ('11) and recent graduate of the MSJ program at Northwestern's Medill School of Journalism. This is a blog that attempts to analyze the highs and lows of Michigan football and basketball; I'm just trying to capture the spirit of the thing. I will also write about general Big Ten news, as well as Chicago professional sports (from time to time).
Posts
