Little late linking this today, but my recap of the Indiana shootout--note to self: if I ever start an indie country band, call it "The Indiana Shootout"--went up at Maize n Brew this morning.
Overall, the tackling was a concern but I'm not sure the defensive issues in this one should be anything to seriously worry about the rest of the way. Indiana will continue to be a special case in this way as long as Kevin Wilson is in Bloomington, I'm afraid.
Offensively, Michigan destroyed a bad Indiana defense, but did it better than any of Indiana's previous opponents, so that's something if you're looking for some relativistic comfort.
In any case, the bye week is once again coming at a good time. Devin Gardner took some big hits on Saturday, and he'll have a chance to heal up before Michigan attempts to solve Michigan State's monstrous defense. That will be a tall order, but Al Borges and Co. will have an extra week to figure out a plan for that.
Showing posts with label Al Borges. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Al Borges. Show all posts
Monday, October 21, 2013
Wednesday, September 18, 2013
Miscellaneous Minutiae, 9/18/13
It's 70 degrees today in Chicago, but the last few days have started to feel like fall. Here are some Wednesday links:
- Rittenberg diagnoses what's ailing the Big Ten. "Certain position groups have gone downhill in the Big Ten in recent years, but the league has had no problems producing elite defensive linemen." Yeah, no problem at all.
- Maine, Northwestern's opponent this week, has a player named Dakota Tarbox. Cormac McCarthy dystopian character? No, a freshman tight end.
- Borges on Saturday: "If you look at the video, there's some really nice plays," he said Tuesday. "Surrounded by garbage."
- Bucky's 5th Quarter gets to know Purdue. I'll be in Madison this weekend and hopefully at the game (which would make my first visit to Camp Randall).
- Zach on Michigan's new basketball ticket policy.
- Tom Deinhart and the ESPN Big Ten Blog guys have the Illini going bowling in Dallas. As in, they will be playing in a bowl game, not trying to pick up a 7-10 split as George Strait plays in the background.
- Joe Tiller had some not so optimistic things to say about the road ahead for Darrell Hazell's Boilermakers.
Monday, October 29, 2012
Shameless Self-Promotion Time (Nebraska)
(HT: Mike DeSimone)
Here it is:- Three thousand completely painful words about whatever it is that happened on Saturday in Lincoln (over at Maize n Brew, as usual). Was a game played? Did we win? I don't even know, so no spoilers please. Should I say more in this blurb? Should I say things of substance instead of asking pointless questions in order to avoid saying things about the game? Should I stop doing this? Okay that's probably enough.
Friday, September 21, 2012
Notre Dame Preview: Once Is A Mistake, Twice Is A Coincidence
After a brief hiatus--UMass being, you know, UMass--I'm back to the Friday morning previewin' game. Given that it is Notre Dame, most of this could probably be whittled down to "Denard Robinson needs to do Denard Robinson things", but...here it is, anyway.
Time: 7:30 ET (NBC)
Place: Notre Dame Stadium--South Bend, IN
Line: Notre Dame -5 1/2
Mood: Like someone at a craps table, hoping for one more run before retreating into the night.
Making an attempt to explain the last three games in this series is as useless as counting the stars in the sky or pondering the meaning of life: really, they happened and they're there, and that's all you need to know. That doesn't mean that we can't mythologize or look back through layers of intoxicating nostalgia, it's just that these three separate 3-hour events, twice in Ann Arbor and once in South Bend, defy any attempts at empirical or rational reckoning. Try to explain last year's Notre Dame game to a friend and all the clocks within a one mile radius will begin to melt and Salvador Dalí will emerge from a wormhole to smack you across the face and say bastante.
Sure, these past performances certainly will be hanging in the air over Notre Dame Stadium on Saturday, a reminder to ND fans and players of how things can go so utterly wrong, of how deep the abyss is, as well as the concern that there might be even further depths which remain to be visited. Of course, on the Michigan side, it will all be a subtle nod to the power of magic. The power of Denard Robinson, like gravity, is unseen but knowable and therefore some sort of benevolent sorcery, kind of like having Gandalf on your side. You don't know where he will come from and at what point in the proceedings, but he eventually does, and with spectacular results, results that make you feel as if your cause is...invincible.
With that said, the aforementioned is nice to talk about but not as important as many will have you believe. Past performance does not ensure future results, and magical coincidence is more often than not just magical coincidence. When Michigan and Notre Dame meet, especially in South Bend, all layers of reality and preconceived notions are stripped away, which is basically just a roundabout way of telling you to take them there record books and throw 'em out.
Like every Michigan-ND game, there's an unnerving anticipation in the buildup that is only intensified by the 7:30 start time. Although both teams have already faced big tests and marquee opponents, this is still the one of the primary forks in the road in each team's season. Lose and feel the expectations temper and languish. Win and, rightly or wrongly, watch the expectations soar.
Michigan Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense
I know that the whole "just do what Alabama did" became somewhat of a meme this week, but there are some similarities between Alabama and ND: they both deploy the 3-4 defense that deploys a rush linebacker sort that goes by a special name. For Alabama, it was the "Jack" linebacker. For the Irish, the position is branded the "Cat" linebacker position, which doesn't seem very cool, creative, or in any topical but okay Notre Dame coaches too busy thinking about football to come up with good gimmicky position names.
While I'm not sure just yet that Prince Shembo is as good as Courtney Upshaw was for Alabama at the JLB spot, he's pretty darn good (and also fantastically named). Shembo had his best game of the season last week against MSU, amassing 9 of his 15 total tackles on the year, including a sack (2 TFLs). At, 6'2'' 250 and sporting the #55, I'm kind of reminded of Brandon Graham, which probably isn't an accurate comparison but whatever. He is a terror, and Michael Schofield (and Vincent Smith) will need to be on their pass pro games if Denard is not going to be Shembo'd into oblivion.
I'm not positive that Diaco will release the hounds when it comes to the defensive ends, #89 Kapron Lewis-Moore and #7 Stephon Tuitt, but the linebackers have certainly been aggressive the last couple of seasons. This has allowed Denard to do Denardian things once he's gotten out to the second level. I think this will need to happen again, as I don't see Michigan's interior line having much success moving NT Louis Nix; again, I'm not sure that Nix=Jesse Williams, but he is definitely very good. As I read Ace's FFFF post yesterday, the section on Nix sort of reminded me of, yup...Jerel Worthy. That is not a very good thing of which to be reminded.
Quite frankly, Michigan will not have much reproducible success running the ball with Toussaint; if any back has success in this game, I have a strange hunch that that back is Vincent Smith. Michigan will find itself in passing situations fairly often, and Smith could prove useful swinging out to the flat and/or filling into the zones which blitzing, hyperactive linebackers have just vacated in the middle of the field. Of course, the only problem with that is that Smith is of course tiny--see: Denard's INT against Air Force--and Denard being who he is will probably lead to some more dangerously errant passes. Throw it high enough but low enough for it to hit Smith in the fingertips and you're looking at a basic tip drill for the D.
Al Borges made a nice point in one of this week's pressers about his confusion regarding the fans' strange insistence that rushing yards only "count" when they come from a running back; against Notre Dame, Michigan has gotten it done on the ground with Denard and Denard alone. Is that type of strategy sustainable? Well, you tell me, 2010 and 2011 scoreboards. However, can it happen again? I'm not so sure.
The only scenario in which I see Michigan having some success on the ground with somebody not named Denard is, you guessed it, by successfully attacking Notre Dame's vulnerable, depleted secondary. Andrew Maxwell and his receivers were not able to take advantage of ND's secondary despite having 8+ defenders in the box with regularity, but I'd like to think that Michigan's QB and receivers are significantly more dangerous than their Spartan counterparts.
In short, yes, I am unironically saying that Michigan should go with the Alabama gameplan this week. ND's defense is several degrees inferior to Alabama's but is also quite possibly the best defense left of Michigan's schedule. I'm definitely not saying that we shouldn't run Denard much for fear of injury or something (as was the theory behind that strategy on 9/1), but running Denard left and right right off the bat is something that ND will be ready for.
Michigan Defense vs. Notre Dame Offense
Listening to the MGoPodcast this week, the consensus seems to be that Everett Golson is sort of in his ur-Denard (to borrow Matt Hinton's phraseology) stage as a quarterback: a not necessarily accurate guy who can make big plays but also mess up the basic ones. He is an exciting prospect, certainly more exciting than Rees and Dayne Crist were, but still very much in the inchoate stages of his development.
Like Denard, Golson is not exactly Cam Newton; at 6'0'' 185 (according to his official Notre Dame profile, at least), he's bound to be called things like "slight" and "willowy" and "probably-needs-to-eat-more". Regardless, he has flashed the playmaking ability that is giving me some bad flashbacks of the 2004 Ohio State game in which a young Troy Smith had himself a day against a favored Michigan team. Needless to say, we have to hope that when Notre Dame drops back to pass, Golson's arms turns into a Ramen noodle or something and that Michigan's can mitigate the lack of a formidable pass rush by keeping contain and not letting Golson run around a la Smith circa 2004.
In average passing situations--i.e. when Golson isn't just freestylin' and profilin'--Michigan should be okay. Notre Dame's receiving options don't really worry me, and I think our corners will be just fine. Tyler Eifert is the next guy in a long line of Notre Dame NFL quality tight ends, but Eifert seems to be more of the hyrbrid WR/TE Greg Olsen/Travis Beckum/etc. sort than a traditional pseudo-lineman with clubs for hands that only catch 1-yard play action passes in goal to go situations. Eifert can really play, and will be a matchup problem when going up against pretty much anybody in Michigan's back 7; strangely, however, Eifert did not record a reception against MSU last week.
Otherwise, there isn't a Michael Floyd in this group, although these are still ND recruits and thus capable of doing damage; after all, let's not forget that our starting corners are likely J.T. Floyd, a sometimes maligned former safety and Raymon Taylor, a still fairly green true sophomore. I have great faith in Taylor, and he's been my "guy who I'm irrationally excited about" since he got playing time early on in the 2011 season. Still, the thought of him playing the field corner spot on the road with a taller receiver like DaVaris Daniels across the way from him or a speedster like TJ Jones (who is most famous for doing this). He did also do this last year to make it 24-7, making the situation seem nearly hopeless for the Wolverines:
What Needs To Happen, Fergodsakes
On offense:
I, like you, have that faint glimmering hope that Denard will finish his career as ND's ultimate kryponite, and that he has one more soul-crushing, virtuoso performance in store for the Irish. With that said, attempting to accomplish something a third time takes that thing from mere coincidence to trend, and I'm not entirely sure that what we have here is some sort of underlying, fundamental trend. That is, I'm not sure that Michigan can beat Notre Dame, no matter what, just because we have Denard Robinson.
This is essentially a greatly scaled down version of the Alabama game. Notre Dame is not Alabama by any means, but they do have strong defensive talent in the front 7 and they do have a solid offensive line and a deep group of talented tailbacks. They will try to enforce their will on Michigan's decidedly average front, and Michigan has no choice but to hope for mistakes on ND's part from time to time...which, to be fair, ND has been happy to oblige the Wolverines with of late.
I know I said this last year, and I have no idea what ND's final record will be this season, but I think this ND team is better than this Michigan team. The same thing could have been said leading up to the 2009, 2010, and 2011 matchups; of course, that did not stop Michigan from winning each of those games. Michigan has discovered the alchemic route to gold, that being a little bit of luck and a lot of Denard Robinson.
As always, a "prediction" is a defraying of the sum of all predictions. That is, which outcome is the "most likely" to take place? Saying that one thing will happen does not preclude the belief that any other option is also possible.
With that said, I think we are bound for a 3+ hour drive to anticlimax. I don't see Michigan generating enough offense to keep up, and I don't think we are in for Denard Eviscerates Notre Dame Part III. Likewise, I don't see where the playmaking will come from in the Michigan defense (outside of Jake Ryan, that is).
In the end, I think Michigan goes to South Bend and takes a loss in a game that will essentially reflect what probably should have happened last season: Notre Dame accumulates around 500 yards or so and generally controls the game from start to finish. Everett Golson hasn't been around long enough to convince anybody that he is or isn't prone to committing silly turnovers, but it's obvious that he isn't as careless with the ball as Tommy Rees. As such, I don't think that Michigan can expect to be kept in the game with unforced and untimely errors from the ND side. Michigan takes an ugly and only cosmetically close loss in South Bend, a game that will come to be seen as the Godfather III of the Denard vs. Notre Dame saga.
Score: Michigan 17, Notre Dame 27
Time: 7:30 ET (NBC)
Place: Notre Dame Stadium--South Bend, IN
Line: Notre Dame -5 1/2
Mood: Like someone at a craps table, hoping for one more run before retreating into the night.
(HT: Mike DeSimone)
The Exposition Making an attempt to explain the last three games in this series is as useless as counting the stars in the sky or pondering the meaning of life: really, they happened and they're there, and that's all you need to know. That doesn't mean that we can't mythologize or look back through layers of intoxicating nostalgia, it's just that these three separate 3-hour events, twice in Ann Arbor and once in South Bend, defy any attempts at empirical or rational reckoning. Try to explain last year's Notre Dame game to a friend and all the clocks within a one mile radius will begin to melt and Salvador Dalí will emerge from a wormhole to smack you across the face and say bastante.
Sure, these past performances certainly will be hanging in the air over Notre Dame Stadium on Saturday, a reminder to ND fans and players of how things can go so utterly wrong, of how deep the abyss is, as well as the concern that there might be even further depths which remain to be visited. Of course, on the Michigan side, it will all be a subtle nod to the power of magic. The power of Denard Robinson, like gravity, is unseen but knowable and therefore some sort of benevolent sorcery, kind of like having Gandalf on your side. You don't know where he will come from and at what point in the proceedings, but he eventually does, and with spectacular results, results that make you feel as if your cause is...invincible.
With that said, the aforementioned is nice to talk about but not as important as many will have you believe. Past performance does not ensure future results, and magical coincidence is more often than not just magical coincidence. When Michigan and Notre Dame meet, especially in South Bend, all layers of reality and preconceived notions are stripped away, which is basically just a roundabout way of telling you to take them there record books and throw 'em out.
Like every Michigan-ND game, there's an unnerving anticipation in the buildup that is only intensified by the 7:30 start time. Although both teams have already faced big tests and marquee opponents, this is still the one of the primary forks in the road in each team's season. Lose and feel the expectations temper and languish. Win and, rightly or wrongly, watch the expectations soar.
Michigan Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense
I know that the whole "just do what Alabama did" became somewhat of a meme this week, but there are some similarities between Alabama and ND: they both deploy the 3-4 defense that deploys a rush linebacker sort that goes by a special name. For Alabama, it was the "Jack" linebacker. For the Irish, the position is branded the "Cat" linebacker position, which doesn't seem very cool, creative, or in any topical but okay Notre Dame coaches too busy thinking about football to come up with good gimmicky position names.
While I'm not sure just yet that Prince Shembo is as good as Courtney Upshaw was for Alabama at the JLB spot, he's pretty darn good (and also fantastically named). Shembo had his best game of the season last week against MSU, amassing 9 of his 15 total tackles on the year, including a sack (2 TFLs). At, 6'2'' 250 and sporting the #55, I'm kind of reminded of Brandon Graham, which probably isn't an accurate comparison but whatever. He is a terror, and Michael Schofield (and Vincent Smith) will need to be on their pass pro games if Denard is not going to be Shembo'd into oblivion.
I'm not positive that Diaco will release the hounds when it comes to the defensive ends, #89 Kapron Lewis-Moore and #7 Stephon Tuitt, but the linebackers have certainly been aggressive the last couple of seasons. This has allowed Denard to do Denardian things once he's gotten out to the second level. I think this will need to happen again, as I don't see Michigan's interior line having much success moving NT Louis Nix; again, I'm not sure that Nix=Jesse Williams, but he is definitely very good. As I read Ace's FFFF post yesterday, the section on Nix sort of reminded me of, yup...Jerel Worthy. That is not a very good thing of which to be reminded.
Quite frankly, Michigan will not have much reproducible success running the ball with Toussaint; if any back has success in this game, I have a strange hunch that that back is Vincent Smith. Michigan will find itself in passing situations fairly often, and Smith could prove useful swinging out to the flat and/or filling into the zones which blitzing, hyperactive linebackers have just vacated in the middle of the field. Of course, the only problem with that is that Smith is of course tiny--see: Denard's INT against Air Force--and Denard being who he is will probably lead to some more dangerously errant passes. Throw it high enough but low enough for it to hit Smith in the fingertips and you're looking at a basic tip drill for the D.
Al Borges made a nice point in one of this week's pressers about his confusion regarding the fans' strange insistence that rushing yards only "count" when they come from a running back; against Notre Dame, Michigan has gotten it done on the ground with Denard and Denard alone. Is that type of strategy sustainable? Well, you tell me, 2010 and 2011 scoreboards. However, can it happen again? I'm not so sure.
The only scenario in which I see Michigan having some success on the ground with somebody not named Denard is, you guessed it, by successfully attacking Notre Dame's vulnerable, depleted secondary. Andrew Maxwell and his receivers were not able to take advantage of ND's secondary despite having 8+ defenders in the box with regularity, but I'd like to think that Michigan's QB and receivers are significantly more dangerous than their Spartan counterparts.
In short, yes, I am unironically saying that Michigan should go with the Alabama gameplan this week. ND's defense is several degrees inferior to Alabama's but is also quite possibly the best defense left of Michigan's schedule. I'm definitely not saying that we shouldn't run Denard much for fear of injury or something (as was the theory behind that strategy on 9/1), but running Denard left and right right off the bat is something that ND will be ready for.
Michigan Defense vs. Notre Dame Offense
Listening to the MGoPodcast this week, the consensus seems to be that Everett Golson is sort of in his ur-Denard (to borrow Matt Hinton's phraseology) stage as a quarterback: a not necessarily accurate guy who can make big plays but also mess up the basic ones. He is an exciting prospect, certainly more exciting than Rees and Dayne Crist were, but still very much in the inchoate stages of his development.
Like Denard, Golson is not exactly Cam Newton; at 6'0'' 185 (according to his official Notre Dame profile, at least), he's bound to be called things like "slight" and "willowy" and "probably-needs-to-eat-more". Regardless, he has flashed the playmaking ability that is giving me some bad flashbacks of the 2004 Ohio State game in which a young Troy Smith had himself a day against a favored Michigan team. Needless to say, we have to hope that when Notre Dame drops back to pass, Golson's arms turns into a Ramen noodle or something and that Michigan's can mitigate the lack of a formidable pass rush by keeping contain and not letting Golson run around a la Smith circa 2004.
In average passing situations--i.e. when Golson isn't just freestylin' and profilin'--Michigan should be okay. Notre Dame's receiving options don't really worry me, and I think our corners will be just fine. Tyler Eifert is the next guy in a long line of Notre Dame NFL quality tight ends, but Eifert seems to be more of the hyrbrid WR/TE Greg Olsen/Travis Beckum/etc. sort than a traditional pseudo-lineman with clubs for hands that only catch 1-yard play action passes in goal to go situations. Eifert can really play, and will be a matchup problem when going up against pretty much anybody in Michigan's back 7; strangely, however, Eifert did not record a reception against MSU last week.
Otherwise, there isn't a Michael Floyd in this group, although these are still ND recruits and thus capable of doing damage; after all, let's not forget that our starting corners are likely J.T. Floyd, a sometimes maligned former safety and Raymon Taylor, a still fairly green true sophomore. I have great faith in Taylor, and he's been my "guy who I'm irrationally excited about" since he got playing time early on in the 2011 season. Still, the thought of him playing the field corner spot on the road with a taller receiver like DaVaris Daniels across the way from him or a speedster like TJ Jones (who is most famous for doing this). He did also do this last year to make it 24-7, making the situation seem nearly hopeless for the Wolverines:
Similarly, Robby Toma is a tiny, white receiver and is therefore Wes Welker, so Michigan will need to keep an eye on him and Jones on screens and other slowly developing plays (e.g. the above drag route).
Unfortunately, like on offense, Michigan is at a disadvantage up front. Notre Dame has an experienced line that will look to run the ball with multiple backs, with Cierre Wood being the headliner and Theo Riddick and George Atkinson providing quality depth. The Irish didn't have an extremely prolific day running the ball, but they were actually fairly effective, with 27 carries going for 129 yards (4.8 YPC, with Golson's sacks taken out). Two things: a) compare that to how Michigan did against MSU last season on the ground and b) remember that Michigan's defensive front is nowhere near as good as MSU's, and you have two fairly worrisome things going on.
While Notre Dame's receiving corps doesn't necessarily have a star, it's not too difficult to imagine ND racking up a yardage total that equals or exceeds last year's 513. Unless the light suddenly turns on and Campbell, Washington, etc. can finally get any sort of push at the POA, Michigan is in for a long day. Even with a less refined passer in Golson in the game, Notre Dame will still threaten to drown Michigan in a tidal wave of yards and first downs. The Michigan defense's life preserver will once again have to be forced (and unforced) turnovers on ND's part.
What Needs To Happen, Fergodsakes
On offense:
- The Rex Grossman philosophy of offense. I'm pretty sure Al Borges is secretly a big Rex Grossman fan, and that will hopefully show on Saturday by going deep early and often. Remember the Northwestern game last season? Michigan needs to attack downfield just like they did against the Wildcats.
- Please no I-form running. This goes without saying, but Michigan spent an inordinate amount of time during UTL last season plugging away from under center with no success. I'm pretty sure we've all learned our lesson at this point, and it's pretty apparent that Michigan's interior trio is not moving anybody in traditional running sets.
- Accurate Denard, don't be a mirage por favor. Fairly self-explanatory, but if Michigan is going to mitigate the disparity in respective line strength, Denard will need to complete some passes from the pocket early on at every level (dumpoffs, intermediate routes, and deep). Like many teams these days, I expect DC Bob Diaco to keep his ends mostly in contain mode, so rolling Denard out could be asking for a lot of balls harmlessly falling to the turf after Tuitt or Lewis-Moore do their best Dikembe Mutombo impression.
- Like a broken record...say it with me: BEND BUT DON'T BREAK. This is just simply Michigan's calling card until Michigan's youngsters become upper classmen. ND will rack up yards, they will probably get at least one first down on a given drive more often that not, and they will probably score in or around their 2011 total.
- Show me time. With Desmond Morgan looking like he's back in the starting lineup, it's time for him and Kenny Demens to reassert themselves as the starters, especially on the heels of a recent charge by freshmen James Ross III and Joe Bolden. Morgan had a bit of a tough time against ND last season, and he's struggled to start the season and then had a "head problem" that kept him out last week. I would rather not have to see too much of Bolden and Ross on Saturday, and that means Morgan/Demens playing competently. Nobody's asking for big plays or anything--that's what Jake Ryan and Frank Clark are for--but not completely whiffing on the edge and being ready to take on blockers without getting engulfed would be nice things.
- BRING. THE. HEAT. Nobody needs to tell Mattison to be aggressive, but Michigan will need to bring the heat from time to time. Golson isn't actually end-of-2004-Troy-Smith yet, so Michigan can make some hay taking a page from MSU's playbook and bringing pressure through the middle, overwhelming ND's interior line, and allowing the secondary to handle their men in single coverage. Michigan will get beat from time to time, but I don't see any way around it: Michigan needs to force a turnover or two, and I don't see that happening without calling in an air strike or two. It is "unsound", sure, but desperate times and circumstances call for desperate measures. Hey, just remember that we were trying to do this with Greg Robinson not too long ago and you'll feel a bit better.
I, like you, have that faint glimmering hope that Denard will finish his career as ND's ultimate kryponite, and that he has one more soul-crushing, virtuoso performance in store for the Irish. With that said, attempting to accomplish something a third time takes that thing from mere coincidence to trend, and I'm not entirely sure that what we have here is some sort of underlying, fundamental trend. That is, I'm not sure that Michigan can beat Notre Dame, no matter what, just because we have Denard Robinson.
This is essentially a greatly scaled down version of the Alabama game. Notre Dame is not Alabama by any means, but they do have strong defensive talent in the front 7 and they do have a solid offensive line and a deep group of talented tailbacks. They will try to enforce their will on Michigan's decidedly average front, and Michigan has no choice but to hope for mistakes on ND's part from time to time...which, to be fair, ND has been happy to oblige the Wolverines with of late.
I know I said this last year, and I have no idea what ND's final record will be this season, but I think this ND team is better than this Michigan team. The same thing could have been said leading up to the 2009, 2010, and 2011 matchups; of course, that did not stop Michigan from winning each of those games. Michigan has discovered the alchemic route to gold, that being a little bit of luck and a lot of Denard Robinson.
As always, a "prediction" is a defraying of the sum of all predictions. That is, which outcome is the "most likely" to take place? Saying that one thing will happen does not preclude the belief that any other option is also possible.
With that said, I think we are bound for a 3+ hour drive to anticlimax. I don't see Michigan generating enough offense to keep up, and I don't think we are in for Denard Eviscerates Notre Dame Part III. Likewise, I don't see where the playmaking will come from in the Michigan defense (outside of Jake Ryan, that is).
In the end, I think Michigan goes to South Bend and takes a loss in a game that will essentially reflect what probably should have happened last season: Notre Dame accumulates around 500 yards or so and generally controls the game from start to finish. Everett Golson hasn't been around long enough to convince anybody that he is or isn't prone to committing silly turnovers, but it's obvious that he isn't as careless with the ball as Tommy Rees. As such, I don't think that Michigan can expect to be kept in the game with unforced and untimely errors from the ND side. Michigan takes an ugly and only cosmetically close loss in South Bend, a game that will come to be seen as the Godfather III of the Denard vs. Notre Dame saga.
Score: Michigan 17, Notre Dame 27
Wednesday, August 15, 2012
Shameless Self-Promotion Time (8/15/2012)
One item of self-promotion today: I wrote a post over at Maize n Brew about Al Borges. It's fairly lengthy, but I talked about everything from his career to date to basic expectations for the coming season.
Despite the 2011 offense's issues, Borges is an accomplished guy who very clearly knows what he's doing. This offense is in good hands (imagine that sentence being read in Dennis Haysbert's voice). In fact, between him, Hoke, and Mattison, I find him to be by far the most interesting during press conferences.
Thursday, August 9, 2012
Miscellaneous Minutiae, 8/9/2012
If you didn't know the answer, then you are probably a little bit shocked (at least I was, particularly with the answer for tailback. Warrick Dunn? Wow. I'm not sure there is another bit of trivia that truly shows how far FSU had fallen during the last five or six years of the Bowden era. Matt Hinton writes writes this year's "Is FSU for real?" post, which is especially topical after I, for the second year in a row, plugged my nose and picked FSU to do some nice things in 2012:
Kind of crazy, right?The skill positions have been no less of a revolving door. Devonta Freeman and Rashad Greene were encouraging in their debuts, but hardly revelatory enough to peg either as an emerging star in an offense that has had astonishingly few of them over the last decade: FSU hasn't produced a 1,000-yard receiver since Anquan Boldin in 2002, or a 1,000-yard rusher since Warrick Dunn in 1996.
Hey, you guys. Did you know that people in the South care so much about football? It's true. They just want it more. That's why they're so good. Rick Bragg, author of All Over But The Shoutin', actually wrote this:
Ah, yes. "Real obsession." That can definitely only be found in Dixie.An award-winning author of books on Southern history, Rable is not a native Southerner but grew up in another football incubator, in Lima, Ohio, in the swirl of Ohio State-Michigan, rooting for the Buckeyes. He came down here to see real obsession. He once exited Tiger Stadium as the faithful chanted: "Go to hell, Ole Miss, go to hell."
"And," he says, "we weren't playing Ole Miss."
It's difficult to be too hard on Bragg because he is speaking as a sort of chronicler of the South as opposed to an active participant and/or endorser of its most ridiculous manifestations of insanity. He even mentions that he does not tie his worth to the outcome of the game, which is a nice sentiment that I like because many people have that problem.
Still, the entire piece was tiresome, worse, even, than an SEC team's fans chanting "S-E-C!" after a bowl victory instead of singing their school's fight song. Thankfully, we have Spencer Hall to make fun of these sorts of caricaturized, hackneyed drivel:
Homespun folk wisdom for its own sake, devoid of real depth or any sort of probing complexity, is an unfortunate way to have to describe something written by a dyed-in-the-wool Southerner like Bragg. I almost feel bad striking at something that is obviously heartfelt, but it is lazy writing, not to mention a passive-aggressive, literarily dressed up version of hollering "S-E-C" over and over again in some poor Yankee's face.One time, COLORFUL REGIONAL ANECDOTE.
My uncle once worked at a turtle factory, where they make turtles and sometimes shotguns and pies. South Carolina had just beaten Georgia, and the plant manager was a big ol' South Carolina fan. He was just standing there, a-hootin' and a-hollerin' about, "woooo Go Cocks" when my uncle just up and popped him in the temple with a .38. THAT'S DEDICATION. Second degree manslaughter got the word "laughter" in it, and that's something I learned by watching Gallagher.
On "luck." In light of this week's Big 12 previews and the discussion of "luck" with respect to Kansas State's win total and Oklahoma State's defense (i.e. TO margin), this post from Bill C on the issue of luck pertaining to Oklahoma State's 2011 defensive performance was fairly topical:
Michigan was also lucky last season, in the colloquial sense as well as the statistical "well that probably wouldn't have happened in most trials" one. Per Bill C, thing that are not attributable to luck include defending passes (i.e. interceptions+PBUs) and forced fumbles. Things that are mostly luck-based? Fumble recovery and interceptions. The whole "is fumble recovery rate mostly luck?" debate is one that has raged on many times at MGoBlog, and the best answer that I can come up with is this: it is luck and it isn't, which isn't much of an answer at all. Is a certain outcome attributable to "luck" if that outcome's likelihood (i.e. a recovered fumble) can be increased with a specific and narrow focus from a coaching staff? I would say yes and no. You can practice it, but at the end of the day a football is a prolate spheroid that bounces without rhyme or reason, and when you throw a pile of 250-320 pound dudes into the equation, cause and effect is like in a jungle of white noise. Something something preparation something opportunity.Let's summarize: Oklahoma State's defense was absolutely a bit lucky in 2011. They picked off about five more passes than they probably should have, and they recovered about four more fumbles than they probably should have. A swing of nine turnovers can obviously make an enormous difference over the course of the season. (They did, after all, benefit from about 3.4 turnover luck points per game.) That said, this defense wasn't based entirely on lucky bounces. Yes, OSU allowed a ton of yards. (They ranked 107th in yards per game allowed.) That's what happens when you a) face Arizona, Tulsa, Texas A&M, Missouri, Baylor, Kansas State, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Stanford, and b) do so with your own offense running at a nuclear pace (and therefore face a ton of plays).
As we all know, Michigan was tied for first in fumble recoveries last year with, you guessed it...Oklahoma State. I will be completely honest. I have the utmost confidence in these coaches, but there's a bubbling undercurrent of worry when you combine the above, the loss of 75% of the defensive line, and a frightening lack of depth at several positions. On the bright side, there aren't very many Big Ten offenses that appear to be exceedingly scary.
Underneath Michigan's #6 scoring defense was a team that was 36th in 3rd down conversion percentage defense, 39th in run defense, and, as mentioned, 1st in fumble recoveries. Against the better offenses on the schedule, namely Notre Dame and Virginia Tech (and Ohio State, obviously), Michigan was decidedly a bend-but-don't break group. Take Martin, RVB, and Heininger away from that defense and that dam starts to get quite a bit leakier, the margin of error smaller.
Of course, guys have gotten better over the summer. I don't mean this to be completely doom and gloom. Michigan's back 7, while not exactly supremely athletic, returns intact and should be very good. The defensive line has its own questions: Campbell, Roh's move to SDE, Ryan's potential move to WDE, Jibreel Black on the inside, whether or not guys like Washington give us anything, and the overall readiness of Ondre Pipkins.
Instead of thinking about the dispassionate pendulum of turnover "luck" swinging back the other way counter to Michigan's interests, I'm just going to keep saying "trust the coaches" and playing the Jake Ryan running down David Wilson play over and over until September 1st.
Alabama secondary. Some general fluff about the Alabama secondary, Saban's favorite positional group and object of much spleen and OCD-ing. As mentioned in exhaustive detail during the position previews that I did a while back, the Tide have to replace three starters in the secondary, all NFL draft picks (Dre Kirkpatrick, Mark Barron, DeQuan Menzie). FS Robert Lester returns, but somebody needs to fill the shoes of the departed top-10 pick Mark Barron at SS. DC Kirby Smart on Vinnie Sunseri (son of new Tennessee DC Sal Sunseri):
"He's not Mark Barron, he's not trying to be Mark Barron; he's trying to be Vinnie and he's done that well," Smart said. "He makes a lot of big plays."Well, we'll see about that. As for Sunseri's challengers:
Sophomore HaHa Clinton-Dix should also see significant action, especially when Alabama goes to its nickel and dime packages. Five-star freshman Landon Collins, who boasts a strong 6-foot, 202-pound frame, certainly looks the part of an SEC safety but will have to pick up Saban's and Smart's system quickly if he hopes to make an immediate impact.Clinton-Dix has been talked about as an option at corner as well, so this is no surprise. Either way, all options here are very talented but young and inexperienced. I would imagine that Al Borges would have to find a way to scheme against this relative weakness (and I mean relative).
IT'S RAWLS-ERRING TIME. First of all, official position re: Toussaint. If he plays against Alabama, I would be fairly disappointed.
With that out of the way, I've already figured Toussaint's absence for that game into my worldview, so it's time to think about the backups. Al Borges made an explicit nod to sophomore mooseback Thomas Rawls, which isn't so much a depth chart surprise, really, but an explicit nod from this coaching staff is something worth clinging to on this day, August 9th, 2 Anno Hokeini.
"We're just going to the next guy -- we're not really changing anything," Borges said during a news conference at Schembechler Hall. "Thomas Rawls is going to be that next guy. Vince is going to do what he's done, and on we go.Ramp up the speculation machine, but I have to think that Toussaint is not playing on September 1st. Anyway, in theory a guy like Rawls being Michigan's main option is nice against a team like Alabama. In theory. For a power back to get anything going, you need a line built to block for that sort of back, something that Michigan decidedly does not have. I don't care how "angry" Rawls runs, but I'm pretty much having visions of Rawls having to run through guys in the backfield just to get back to the line of scrimmage. A power back that hasn't really proven anything other than the fact that he can run over Jarrod Wilson plus a line that is good to very end at tackle but not exactly powerful in the interior, seems to me a recipe for a 10-12 carry, thirty-something type performance.
For some reason, I think that Stephen Hopkins will have his number called many times on 9/1. Michigan needs to do just enough to afford Denard some credibility and a modicum of space when he does in fact tuck it and run. Borges name dropped Rawls, Vincent Smith, and Justice Hayes, but I think Hopkins has to have his best game of his career of Michigan is going to even match their anemic Sugar Bowl output.
More? UMHoops on Zak Irvin's summer. Spoiler alert: he's very good. Dana Holgorsen got himself a 6-year extension at WVU. That noise was the collective resigned exhalation of Big 12 defensive coordinators everywhere.
From Stewart Mandel's mailbag, he says that Michigan "probably should [be ranked #1]" if Michigan beats Alabama. That would be cool.
Thursday, August 2, 2012
Miscellaneous Minutiae, 8/2/2012
Some things of interest on this fine Thursday:
SO CLOSE. MGoBlue.com's Countdown to Kickoff, also known as The Fluff Series You Crave More Than Any Other Series of Fluffy Pre-Season Videos, is finally back:
Trey at the 2016 Olympics. Via UMHoops, Jeff Goodman of CBS discusses the potential look of the 2016 USA basketball Olympic team in light of the chatter about a potential move to a U-23 format.
Personally, I would welcome this change, but that could just be me exhibiting a classic case of the grass is greener of the other side. Truth be told, watching NBA stars dominate during the Olympics is entertaining for everyone, but part of me would also like to see the country's best young players go up against the rest of the world's best. Goodman's suggested lineup of Trey Burke-Cody Zeller-Shabbazz Muhammad-Anthony Davis-Jabari Parker sounds pretty ridiculously good and would be fun to watch.
Would it come close to the entertainment value that this squad of NBA stars* can offer? No, but again, the Olympics are supposedly in part built upon an understanding of amateurism, and a move to a U-23 team would reflect that. It's not a huge deal, really, but it's August and this is what there is to talk about.
Regardless, a former Wolverine running the point at the Olympics would be prettyyy prettyyy prettyyy cool.
More? Brian Phillips is talkin' about anthems, man. Charles Hollis of The Birmingham News predicts losses against LSU and either Arkansas or Michigan for Alabama this season. Well, that would be neat (Michigan beating Alabama, not Arkansas or LSU, I mean).
SO CLOSE. MGoBlue.com's Countdown to Kickoff, also known as The Fluff Series You Crave More Than Any Other Series of Fluffy Pre-Season Videos, is finally back:
(HT mgovideo).
At 0:42, Denard is probably just about the least smiley he's ever been.
Self-promotion. It's not worth a separate post, but I wrote a top 10 B1G linebackers post over at MnB. Unfortunately, Michigan only figures in once, but I have a feeling that with guys like RJS, Ross, Ringer, Bolden, McCray, and Gedeon, that will change within the next two to three years.
Barnhart on the ACC. In light of the ACC previews that I'm sure you all read earlier this week, this discussion of September's importance for the ACC is topical. Big Ten-relevant games include: PSU @ Virginia and Boston College @ Northwestern. If Penn State wins that one, I will be fairly surprised. Northwestern beat BC in Chestnut Hill last season, and should be able to bring home the win again this year.
I was somewhat sarcastic about Duke in my preview post the other day, but after reading this blurb on Duke wide receive Conno Vernon, I felt kind of bad about it:
Think about all of the great wide receivers who have played in the ACC. Georgia Tech's Calvin Johnson and Florida State's Peter Warrick quickly come to mind. Now realize that with 35 catches Vernon, a senior from Miami, will become the conference's all-time leader. He currently has 198 career catches. The ACC record is 232 held by Clemson's Aaron Kelly.
So, don't say that you didn't learn anything today.
Stickin' around. Good news everyone! Not that there was any danger of this not happening, but Greg Mattison says that he's finishing up his coaching career in Ann Arbor:
"The good thing that happens when you're older and you've been a lot of places is, a lot of (coaches) want to win so they can move on," Mattison said. "Me? Hey, this is my last stop. I just want to win because it's Michigan."Borges says the same:
"This is a great place to coach and to be, and for someone to leave here, you better be able to justify it. And I just don't see any scenarios that could justify me leaving the University of Michigan."I hope Al is ready to be badgered about bubble screens for another decade. On a serious note, it won't be a fun day when Michigan has to find Mattison's replacement, but like many others, I think Michigan might end up promoting from within...and by that I mean Curt Mallory. We shall see. Either way, Mattison should be around long enough to see the recent crop of top recruits form the backbone of a world-destroying top 10 defense. As fun as last year's defense was to watch, it always seemed like a thing held together by paper clips and rubber bands, which is fine because it ultimately held together. With an entire defense of well-coached, top shelf talent, Michigan's defense should return to the standard set in the first 5 or so years of Lloyd's tenure (not that he didn't have any good defenses after that).
Trey at the 2016 Olympics. Via UMHoops, Jeff Goodman of CBS discusses the potential look of the 2016 USA basketball Olympic team in light of the chatter about a potential move to a U-23 format.
Personally, I would welcome this change, but that could just be me exhibiting a classic case of the grass is greener of the other side. Truth be told, watching NBA stars dominate during the Olympics is entertaining for everyone, but part of me would also like to see the country's best young players go up against the rest of the world's best. Goodman's suggested lineup of Trey Burke-Cody Zeller-Shabbazz Muhammad-Anthony Davis-Jabari Parker sounds pretty ridiculously good and would be fun to watch.
Would it come close to the entertainment value that this squad of NBA stars* can offer? No, but again, the Olympics are supposedly in part built upon an understanding of amateurism, and a move to a U-23 team would reflect that. It's not a huge deal, really, but it's August and this is what there is to talk about.
Regardless, a former Wolverine running the point at the Olympics would be prettyyy prettyyy prettyyy cool.
More? Brian Phillips is talkin' about anthems, man. Charles Hollis of The Birmingham News predicts losses against LSU and either Arkansas or Michigan for Alabama this season. Well, that would be neat (Michigan beating Alabama, not Arkansas or LSU, I mean).
Wednesday, May 30, 2012
Miscellaneous Minutiae, 5/30/2012
I'm not talking about realignment, playoff scenarios, or Jim Delany, Mike Slive, Larry Scott, and Dave Brandon this week. It's beyond our control, and although we are sometimes drawn to it like we are to Yahoo/ESPN/etc. comment sections--it's the spectacle, you see--it is not wise (or healthy) to discuss this stuff over and over again. I'm sure I'm going to go against this suggestion several times between now and September 1st, but this week we'll talk about things that aren't completed steeped in the fog of runaway speculation. You know, football...that game that all the hemming and hawing is supposedly about?
Borges vs. Saban, Part III. We can only hope that the third installment of this series does not go as poorly for Michigan as Godfather III went for the eyeballs of everyone that paid money to see it. In lieu of yesterday's name drop of Borges at the end of the Alabama linebackers preview, this is probably timely re: previous meetings:
As for the 2004 Auburn-LSU game...I was at the '04 Auburn-UGA game, and I remember these things: 1) Cadillac and Ronnie Brown running all over the place 2) Junior Rosegreen's hit on Reggie Brown and 3) a very, very sad UGA fan sitting in front of me. That Auburn team was simply insane, and Borges would have had to do quite a bit to sabotage that offense. He very nearly did this, as Auburn won that one at Jordan-Hare by the grit-tastic score of 10-9. To be fair, LSU was not bad at all that season: ignoring the Auburn loss, LSU suffered only one other regular season loss (a thumping at the hands of UGA) before going on to lose via Drew Tate Hail Mary in the Citrus Bowl.
I would probably expect a similar result on September 1st (underperformance relative to season-long ppg/yardage trends). That sounds like I'm making some sort of value judgment, but really I'm just confirming that, you know, offenses usually perform worse than they typically do when faced with the best defense on their schedule (news at 11). That's not to say that I think Saban and Smart will be in Borges's head like Professor X, it just seems that Michigan's best chance at winning this one will mirror the 2012 Sugar Bowl "game plan":a little luck, a little non-ironic grit, some bending but not breaking, and did a mention bags of pure luck emblazoned with Jareth Glanda's face instead of the ubiquitous dollar sign? I just don't see Michigan having the ability to put together a lot of long drives, but I would love for Al and the guys to prove me wrong.
Otherwise, Michigan will have to count on some uncharacteristic herpin' and derpin' from the Alabama offense and some young linebackers looking like confused tourists in a foreign land.
Raise your hand if you are surprised by this? I don't why this has fomented such an uproar since this has happened before (see: Gardner, Devin), but oh well. It's just a game, fergodsakes. The scary thing is, no matter how many time people express the aforementioned truism, people that believe otherwise will continue to exist.
For all the perks and benefits that come with being a college football player, it is unfortunate that they must come as part of a package that results in millions of middle-aged maniacs knowing who they are and what they're saying while giving said crazies access to said players via social media and other outlets of creepiness. I suspect that these people have always existed, it's just that social media and the Internet at large have given them an outlet through which to express their unique brand of crazy.
Dear weirdos: get in your car and drive to a little town called Perspective. Nota bene: this town does not exist, anywhere, but I'm hoping that, in tricking you into driving all over the place in search of this fictional town, you may or may not acquire some actual perspective along the way. It's kind of an On The Road for the college football-obsessed crazy person: crazy college football man goes on journey, looking for perspective, man. This version would be infinitely more interesting than the actual book, which does not age like wine and is only good if you are: 1) a teenager or 2) a hipster. ANYWAY.
Lastly: hey there SI headline. What you did there...I see it.
Insert Casablanca quote. Jerry Hinnen takes a look at the over/under win totals for the SEC West, which of course added Texas A&M to the fold (good luck with that, Aggies). I'm not a gambling guy at all, but hey, at least we're talking wins and losses here and not bowl revenues and how Dave Brandon is the worst, you guys. The aforementioned O/Us come via Beyond The Bets, which shows Michigan coming in for an O/U of 9.5, FWIW.
I'd pretty much have to agree with all of those assessments except for Arkansas, who I don't see getting 9 wins in 2012 (O/U 8.5). I would also be surprised if Auburn wins 8+ this season: Brian VanGorder's hair can only do so much, although losing shipping Ted Roof off to Happy Valley is what they call addition by subtraction. As for taking the over on Mississippi State's 7.5...don't know about that one. The momentum built after the Gator Bowl drubbing Mullen and Co. administered to Michigan is largely gone after a disappointing 2011.
Alabama likely does what it couldn't do in 2011, and by that I mean win its own division. I get the feeling that LSU will slip from its 2011 form, but they'll still win at least 10. The question then is who comes in third, which looks to be Arkansas but that whole John L. Smith thing sort of complicates things. Additionally, the Razorbacks have never been strong defensively, and losing Garick McGee--who left to take the HC position at UAB--doesn't help things. It's unlikely that former Buckeye assistant and new Arkansas DC Paul Haynes will be able to do enough to turn things around there in his first year.
For some reason, I'm envisioning a 2007 scenario unfolding in the SECW this year, where the champion (Alabama, this year) has two losses and the rest of the division is a mass of mediocrity after the second place team (LSU, in my opinion). Can Alabama make the national title game this year with two conference losses like LSU did in 2007? I don't know, but even imagining the possibility, especially after what Alabama pulled off last year, makes me shudder a bit.
Spike Albrecht. Via UMHoops, Joe Stapleton continues the "Getting to Know" series with Spike, who might be the lone thing separating Trey Burke from spontaneously combusting at some point halfway through the B1G schedule. This isn't news or anything, but it's still kind of amazing that Albrecht put on 20 pounds last summer and is still only 165. Dear Spike: please head to your nearest Cottage Inn location. Related concerns:
More? Didn't get a chance to read this Weinreb piece on Notre Dame until yesterday...nothing too world-shattering, but I have to admit that I actually laughed out loud at the ND alumnus's question because of how much it reminds me of the fact that ND is just a Catholic version of Michigan. Clearly, 2012 is the year of the LSU TigerShrimps. Maize n Brew kicks off Northwestern preview week.
"Look at my face: I really really hate bubble screens."
Borges vs. Saban, Part III. We can only hope that the third installment of this series does not go as poorly for Michigan as Godfather III went for the eyeballs of everyone that paid money to see it. In lieu of yesterday's name drop of Borges at the end of the Alabama linebackers preview, this is probably timely re: previous meetings:
So, yeah...Borges "bested" Saban both times, but, really, he didn't. That 2007 Alabama team was Saban's first in Tuscaloosa...the Tide finished 7-6 (4-4) that year. Auburn scored less than every other Alabama conference opponent save Vanderbilt (Mississippi State and Tennessee both also put up 17 on Alabama). Even Louisiana Monroe managed 21 points in what is one of the more forgotten upsets in recent times.Borges also faced Saban twice while at Auburn, and beat him both times -- but it was a struggle to do so.The first matchup came in 2004, when Saban was still head coach at LSU. Borges' SEC-best offense, which averaged 32.1 points per game, was held to 10 points.The second meeting came in 2007, Saban's first year at Alabama. Borges won again, but Auburn scored just 17 points, a touchdown off its average of 24.2 points.
As for the 2004 Auburn-LSU game...I was at the '04 Auburn-UGA game, and I remember these things: 1) Cadillac and Ronnie Brown running all over the place 2) Junior Rosegreen's hit on Reggie Brown and 3) a very, very sad UGA fan sitting in front of me. That Auburn team was simply insane, and Borges would have had to do quite a bit to sabotage that offense. He very nearly did this, as Auburn won that one at Jordan-Hare by the grit-tastic score of 10-9. To be fair, LSU was not bad at all that season: ignoring the Auburn loss, LSU suffered only one other regular season loss (a thumping at the hands of UGA) before going on to lose via Drew Tate Hail Mary in the Citrus Bowl.
I would probably expect a similar result on September 1st (underperformance relative to season-long ppg/yardage trends). That sounds like I'm making some sort of value judgment, but really I'm just confirming that, you know, offenses usually perform worse than they typically do when faced with the best defense on their schedule (news at 11). That's not to say that I think Saban and Smart will be in Borges's head like Professor X, it just seems that Michigan's best chance at winning this one will mirror the 2012 Sugar Bowl "game plan":a little luck, a little non-ironic grit, some bending but not breaking, and did a mention bags of pure luck emblazoned with Jareth Glanda's face instead of the ubiquitous dollar sign? I just don't see Michigan having the ability to put together a lot of long drives, but I would love for Al and the guys to prove me wrong.
Otherwise, Michigan will have to count on some uncharacteristic herpin' and derpin' from the Alabama offense and some young linebackers looking like confused tourists in a foreign land.
Raise your hand if you are surprised by this? I don't why this has fomented such an uproar since this has happened before (see: Gardner, Devin), but oh well. It's just a game, fergodsakes. The scary thing is, no matter how many time people express the aforementioned truism, people that believe otherwise will continue to exist.
For all the perks and benefits that come with being a college football player, it is unfortunate that they must come as part of a package that results in millions of middle-aged maniacs knowing who they are and what they're saying while giving said crazies access to said players via social media and other outlets of creepiness. I suspect that these people have always existed, it's just that social media and the Internet at large have given them an outlet through which to express their unique brand of crazy.
Dear weirdos: get in your car and drive to a little town called Perspective. Nota bene: this town does not exist, anywhere, but I'm hoping that, in tricking you into driving all over the place in search of this fictional town, you may or may not acquire some actual perspective along the way. It's kind of an On The Road for the college football-obsessed crazy person: crazy college football man goes on journey, looking for perspective, man. This version would be infinitely more interesting than the actual book, which does not age like wine and is only good if you are: 1) a teenager or 2) a hipster. ANYWAY.
Lastly: hey there SI headline. What you did there...I see it.
Insert Casablanca quote. Jerry Hinnen takes a look at the over/under win totals for the SEC West, which of course added Texas A&M to the fold (good luck with that, Aggies). I'm not a gambling guy at all, but hey, at least we're talking wins and losses here and not bowl revenues and how Dave Brandon is the worst, you guys. The aforementioned O/Us come via Beyond The Bets, which shows Michigan coming in for an O/U of 9.5, FWIW.
I'd pretty much have to agree with all of those assessments except for Arkansas, who I don't see getting 9 wins in 2012 (O/U 8.5). I would also be surprised if Auburn wins 8+ this season: Brian VanGorder's hair can only do so much, although losing shipping Ted Roof off to Happy Valley is what they call addition by subtraction. As for taking the over on Mississippi State's 7.5...don't know about that one. The momentum built after the Gator Bowl drubbing Mullen and Co. administered to Michigan is largely gone after a disappointing 2011.
Alabama likely does what it couldn't do in 2011, and by that I mean win its own division. I get the feeling that LSU will slip from its 2011 form, but they'll still win at least 10. The question then is who comes in third, which looks to be Arkansas but that whole John L. Smith thing sort of complicates things. Additionally, the Razorbacks have never been strong defensively, and losing Garick McGee--who left to take the HC position at UAB--doesn't help things. It's unlikely that former Buckeye assistant and new Arkansas DC Paul Haynes will be able to do enough to turn things around there in his first year.
For some reason, I'm envisioning a 2007 scenario unfolding in the SECW this year, where the champion (Alabama, this year) has two losses and the rest of the division is a mass of mediocrity after the second place team (LSU, in my opinion). Can Alabama make the national title game this year with two conference losses like LSU did in 2007? I don't know, but even imagining the possibility, especially after what Alabama pulled off last year, makes me shudder a bit.
Spike Albrecht. Via UMHoops, Joe Stapleton continues the "Getting to Know" series with Spike, who might be the lone thing separating Trey Burke from spontaneously combusting at some point halfway through the B1G schedule. This isn't news or anything, but it's still kind of amazing that Albrecht put on 20 pounds last summer and is still only 165. Dear Spike: please head to your nearest Cottage Inn location. Related concerns:
I never really played AAU, and AAU is big nowadays. But when you’re 5-foot-11, 150 pounds, I mean, I’m gonna get killed out there, so I was never able to do AAU. But for me, I think it was a blessing in disguise because I was just going to get hurt if I’d have played AAU.The B1G, among other stereotypes, is a little bit more physical than AAU ball. With all due respect to Spike, I'm still feeling fairly uneasy about what Trey's work load might look like in 2012-13. Beilein has also publicly expressed these obvious concerns, but when push comes to shove most coaches will choose running their stars down to a nub if it means putting in a guy like Carlton Brundidge or Eso Akunne, (i.e. guys who are clearly not adequate collegiate ball-handlers). I sincerely hope that Spike does well, pitching in anywhere between 4-7 minutes a game, but I'm not that confident that he'll be able to give Trey all that much more rest than he got last season. This is yet another "I will gladly have you prove me wrong" scenario.
More? Didn't get a chance to read this Weinreb piece on Notre Dame until yesterday...nothing too world-shattering, but I have to admit that I actually laughed out loud at the ND alumnus's question because of how much it reminds me of the fact that ND is just a Catholic version of Michigan. Clearly, 2012 is the year of the LSU Tiger
Tuesday, May 29, 2012
Profilin' the Tide: Linebackers
Previously: General Offensive Preview, Offensive Line, Tailbacks, Wide receivers, Tight Ends, and H-backs, Quarterbacks, General Defensive Preview, Defensive Line
Did you hear that? That terror-filled screamed reverberating in the distance? That's the sound made when Courtney Upshaw and Dont'a Hightower punch through the space-time continuum with reckless abandon, reaching into future times to hogtie the quarterbacks of the future, those that are only small children now, because contemporary targets offer challenges unequal to them. Yes, I am basically comparing them to Predator. That noise, just now, was Don'ta Hightower sacking David Sills, the 13 year old that Lane Kiffin somehow got to commit to USC two years ago: sorry, buddy. At least you're not being coached by Lane Kiffin anymore.* Courtney Upshaw and Dont'a Hightower scoff at the "laws" of physics--they're really mere suggestions--and your anatomy's structural integrity. They hit you, and it hurts.
And now, the good news: they're gone, everybody! They're now the AFC North's and East's problem. Additionally, Alabama lost Jerrell Harris, who more than ably manned the SAM position. Alabama does return some experienced talent--namely, Nico Johnson and CJ Mosley--but losing players of the caliber of Upshaw and Hightower, in addition to a sometimes starter/significant contributor like Harris, is no small task.
As you know, Alabama's base defense is the 3-4, which asks its down linemen to basically sacrifice themselves so that the linebackers can clean up and make plays. When done correctly, the 3-4 can be a monster of a defense to attempt to attack; the 1997 Michigan defense says hello. Guys like Terrence Cody and Josh Chapman at the nose have allowed Alabama's talented linebackers to do their thing en route to significant chunks of guaranteed rookie contract money. Guys like Rolando McClain, Dont'a Hightower, Courtney Upshaw, and others, have stood on the shoulders of giants, if you will.
*Or...are you? Maybe this future time-space is one in which Lane Kiffin is offered the Dallas Cowboys head coaching job, and accepts it...but not before telling everyone in the state of California that Five Guys is better than In 'n Out and putting enough money in every jukebox in the metro LA area to play "Call Me Maybe" for the rest of time. That is plausible.
The Starters
Again, the standard "these are somewhat nominal" refrain goes here, but the starters as of right now would seem to look like so:
Adrian Hubbard (6-6, 248) is a rising redshirt sophomore, meaning that 2012 will be his third season in the program. After taking a redshirt in 2012, Hubbard played in 8 games last season, contributing 9 tackles as a backup Jack linebacker. Hubbard is not quite as big as Upshaw was, which is to be expected given his relative youth. Spring practice was apparently a good time for Adrian Hubbard, capped by a monster performance during the April 14th A-Day game (yes, spring games don't matter something something). Either way, there's not much to say here, as Hubbard's reputation at this point rides almost completely upon the wings of his recruiting hype and optimistic spring ball reports. That is to say that, you know, he's completely unproven. I would be lying if I said that Hubbard isn't the most important player in this group for the 2012 season.
Hubbard's supreme athleticism led to questions of whether or not he might lace 'em up for Coach Anthony Grant on the hardwood. This did not come to pass, but could you imagine a 6-7 225 guy playing the 4; if he has any sort of basketball skill, his size and athleticism would make him a prime candidate for an NBA career (this is completely speculative, fyi). Although it seems a bit odd to dub Hubbard the "X factor" of this group when another starting linebacker named "Xzavier" exists, I think it is an apt descriptor. The Jack linebacker is the difference between just another solid defense that stops the run pretty well and one that makes life for opposing offenses a futile series of painful failure for approximately 3 seemingly interminable hours. So, no pressure, Adrian.
Speaking of Xzavier Dickson--whose first name is a spectacular instance of adherence to pure phonetics in naming--is the other linebacker with above average pass rushing ability on the roster. Again, it appears that he's still in the mix for time at SAM, but for now it looks like Dickson will man the Jack position. Otherwise, if Hubbard ultimately wins the JLB competition, Dickson slots in at SAM, replacing Jerrell Harris. Dickson, listed at 6-3 262, is a full 20 pounds heavier than Harris, which would seem to make the decision of whether or not to take him off the field on passing downs even easier. In fact, Dickson worked with the defensive ends last season, notching time as a backup (in addition to some special teams reps). The link includes video of Dickson running around doing drills and such, if you're the sort of person to go on crazed extrapolative benders induced by brief and meaningless practice clips. Either way, he looks the part of the SAM. However, concerns re: experience are even more relevant here than they are for Hubbard.
Nico Johnson is one of two bringers of experience and linebacking wisdom for the Crimson Tide. As a senior, this group will be looking to him for guidance. Johnson's flexibility is also a boon for the defensive staff, as he has logged starts at both the WLB and MLB positions throughout his career. Save the first LSU game last season, Johnson didn't necessarily light up the stat sheet, but that can be understandably difficult to do when one occupies that same playing field as Hightower and Upshaw. Sometimes, there's just not much left.
CJ Mosley, for the purposes of this post, can basically be considered a starter. In fact, Mosley and Johnson were marked as "co-starters" during fall camp last year, and they did go on to essentially share the WLB position throughout the season. Mosley dislocated an elbow against Arkansas that caused him to miss 2 games. He also sustained a pretty brutal hip dislocation in the national championship game following that hilarious Jordan Jefferson derp-ception. Regardless, Mosley has participated in spring ball, and although he might not be 100%, he should be ready to go on September 1st barring further episodes of spontaneous bodily dislocation. Mosley had a superb freshman campaign back in 2010; I expect him to build upon that this season. Mosley, at 6-2 232, is the smallest and speediest of the bunch, and there's no doubt that he will have his sights set on Denard during most of the game on September 1st. He's a dynamic guy that can take an interception and turn it into a touchdown going the other way. As such, Mosley is a nickel specialist, but I wouldn't be surprised if he played a significant percentage of the snaps in the base 3-4 as well.
The Replacements
In the middle, we have our old friend Trey DePriest, whom many thought was going to be a Wolverine at one point during his recruitment. Of course, that didn't happen, and DePriest is now a sophomore at Alabama. The continuing theme here is youth, and although it's not as if DePriest was handed the position (Tana Patrick, a once big time linebacker recruit, was competing for this spot), I might be slightly worried about DePriest starting if I was an Alabama fan. There's not much to say here other than the fact that we know the potential is there, it just hasn't had the opportunity to manifest itself on the field.
DePriest did see some game action last season as a true freshman, notching at least one tackle in every game save the Georgia State and Auburn matchups (in which he either didn't play or didn't make his mark on the stat sheet). In the season opener against Kent State, DePriest tallied 10 total tackles. Playing Kent State is like training on Dagobah, though; you might do some things, but how impressive or ultimately meaningful is it until you prove it in a competitive environment (i.e. SEC play/Darth Vader)?
Tana Patrick is another player competing for time in the middle. The name should be vaguely familiar, as Michigan was once in on Patrick's recruitment several years back. Unfortunately, Patrick will be a redshirt junior this season, having yet to make his mark on the field. Patrick (6-3 236) has seen game action the last two seasons, but apparently nothing meaningful enough to write home about. At this point, it looks like he'll be DePriest's backup.
The rest of the list here contains mostly fresh faces. Jonathan Atchinson (6-3 236), who looks to back up Dickson/Hubbard at the Jack position, will be a redshirt junior this season. He has the reputation of a guy with speed and play-making ability in the backfield, which is pretty much what the JLB spot calls for. He'll be in the mix, but it's anybody's guess how much of a factor he'll be against Michigan.
Alabama also boasts talented early enrollees Dillon Lee and Ryan Anderson. Lee has practiced both on the inside and outside positions, whereas Anderson seems to be strictly an outside linebacker. If either play against Michigan, then something has probably gone terribly wrong for either Alabama or Michigan.
General Spring Minutiae/Encomium That Results In A "Bristling" Saban
We already know about Nico Johnson and CJ Mosley. They've been around and will likely be tasked with calming guys down...with Denard across the way and a hyper-electric stadium, a little nervousness on the part of guys like Hubbard, Dickson, DePriest would be understandable (especially early on). The good news for Alabama is that Mosley seems to have recovered from his hip injury quite nicely:
Roll Bama Roll on Adrian Hubbard's A-Day performance:
Things to Think About/Watch Out For/ARE WE GONNA DIE?
Meaningless Grade That I Will Give Out Anyway
In spite of the talent that exists here, I would be the most worried about this position group if I was an Alabama fan. This group could be given an A based on talent alone, but I have to give them a B simply because, outside of Mosley and Johnson, there is very little game experience to be found. Dickson, Hubbard, and DePriest are all very talented guys that will prove to be very productive players, but it's very difficult for me to imagine them performing on 9/1 at even 75-80% of level that Upshaw and Hightower did last year. No matter how great a defensive mind Saban is and no matter how talented these replacements are, there will be some slippage.
Ultimately, how much slippage there is will partly determine whether or not Michigan will have a chance at consistently moving the ball. This Alabama front 7 will be very good...but, it is very green. Assuming Michigan's offensive line holds up adequately, I'm confident that a veteran like Al Borges will be able to come up with something to take advantage of Bama's overall lack of experience. Whether that "something" leads to first downs and touchdowns on the field is another issue entirely. After watching Virginia Tech's defense stifle Michigan for most of the game, it's difficult to be too overconfident. Given the multiplicity of the Alabama defense and its overall athleticism, Borges will certainly earn his paycheck if Michigan can score somewhere in the 20s.
Did you hear that? That terror-filled screamed reverberating in the distance? That's the sound made when Courtney Upshaw and Dont'a Hightower punch through the space-time continuum with reckless abandon, reaching into future times to hogtie the quarterbacks of the future, those that are only small children now, because contemporary targets offer challenges unequal to them. Yes, I am basically comparing them to Predator. That noise, just now, was Don'ta Hightower sacking David Sills, the 13 year old that Lane Kiffin somehow got to commit to USC two years ago: sorry, buddy. At least you're not being coached by Lane Kiffin anymore.* Courtney Upshaw and Dont'a Hightower scoff at the "laws" of physics--they're really mere suggestions--and your anatomy's structural integrity. They hit you, and it hurts.
And now, the good news: they're gone, everybody! They're now the AFC North's and East's problem. Additionally, Alabama lost Jerrell Harris, who more than ably manned the SAM position. Alabama does return some experienced talent--namely, Nico Johnson and CJ Mosley--but losing players of the caliber of Upshaw and Hightower, in addition to a sometimes starter/significant contributor like Harris, is no small task.
As you know, Alabama's base defense is the 3-4, which asks its down linemen to basically sacrifice themselves so that the linebackers can clean up and make plays. When done correctly, the 3-4 can be a monster of a defense to attempt to attack; the 1997 Michigan defense says hello. Guys like Terrence Cody and Josh Chapman at the nose have allowed Alabama's talented linebackers to do their thing en route to significant chunks of guaranteed rookie contract money. Guys like Rolando McClain, Dont'a Hightower, Courtney Upshaw, and others, have stood on the shoulders of giants, if you will.
*Or...are you? Maybe this future time-space is one in which Lane Kiffin is offered the Dallas Cowboys head coaching job, and accepts it...but not before telling everyone in the state of California that Five Guys is better than In 'n Out and putting enough money in every jukebox in the metro LA area to play "Call Me Maybe" for the rest of time. That is plausible.
The Starters
Again, the standard "these are somewhat nominal" refrain goes here, but the starters as of right now would seem to look like so:
CJ Mosley (WLB)-Nico Johnson (MLB)-Adrian Hubbard (SLB)-Xzavier Dickson (JLB)
For what it's worth, Hubbard and Dickson are listed as contenders for both the Jack and SLB spots, but returns from spring ball indicate that Dickson has the reins for the Jack position which Courtney Upshaw vacated in order to go destroy quarterbacks at the professional level. Also, when Alabama shifts to its nickel sets to combat the more wide open teams it faces (e.g. Arkansas), the SLB is the first to come off the field, which is why Jerrell Harris wasn't the constant presence that you'd expect of a starting linebacker.
There is another scenario in which Trey DePriest fills in at MLB, with Johnson sliding out to Will and Mosley rotating there fairly liberally. Johnson has played both positions, so it would seem that a lot of this depends on how DePriest looked to the staff throughout the spring/will look during fall practice. It's plausible that, against Michigan, Saban will side with his experienced lineup, slotting Mosley at Will and Johnson at Mike, as Alabama will have the rest of the season to work DePriest into the lineup. DePriest will play, though, as Saban loves nothing more than giving offenses multiple looks. Whereas Michigan couldn't do a single thing right under Greg Robinson, the Tide under Saban's robotic tutelage execute multiple defenses with a cold efficiency.
In short, I've ready many conflicting spring reports and depth charts from various sources across the Great Wide Variably Reliable Internet, so I'm just going to lay out the basics here without sweating the positions, because the positions and their accompanying skill sets are somewhat interchangeable.
There is another scenario in which Trey DePriest fills in at MLB, with Johnson sliding out to Will and Mosley rotating there fairly liberally. Johnson has played both positions, so it would seem that a lot of this depends on how DePriest looked to the staff throughout the spring/will look during fall practice. It's plausible that, against Michigan, Saban will side with his experienced lineup, slotting Mosley at Will and Johnson at Mike, as Alabama will have the rest of the season to work DePriest into the lineup. DePriest will play, though, as Saban loves nothing more than giving offenses multiple looks. Whereas Michigan couldn't do a single thing right under Greg Robinson, the Tide under Saban's robotic tutelage execute multiple defenses with a cold efficiency.
In short, I've ready many conflicting spring reports and depth charts from various sources across the Great Wide Variably Reliable Internet, so I'm just going to lay out the basics here without sweating the positions, because the positions and their accompanying skill sets are somewhat interchangeable.
Please just wait one extra week to be really good okay thanks
Adrian Hubbard (6-6, 248) is a rising redshirt sophomore, meaning that 2012 will be his third season in the program. After taking a redshirt in 2012, Hubbard played in 8 games last season, contributing 9 tackles as a backup Jack linebacker. Hubbard is not quite as big as Upshaw was, which is to be expected given his relative youth. Spring practice was apparently a good time for Adrian Hubbard, capped by a monster performance during the April 14th A-Day game (yes, spring games don't matter something something). Either way, there's not much to say here, as Hubbard's reputation at this point rides almost completely upon the wings of his recruiting hype and optimistic spring ball reports. That is to say that, you know, he's completely unproven. I would be lying if I said that Hubbard isn't the most important player in this group for the 2012 season.
Hubbard's supreme athleticism led to questions of whether or not he might lace 'em up for Coach Anthony Grant on the hardwood. This did not come to pass, but could you imagine a 6-7 225 guy playing the 4; if he has any sort of basketball skill, his size and athleticism would make him a prime candidate for an NBA career (this is completely speculative, fyi). Although it seems a bit odd to dub Hubbard the "X factor" of this group when another starting linebacker named "Xzavier" exists, I think it is an apt descriptor. The Jack linebacker is the difference between just another solid defense that stops the run pretty well and one that makes life for opposing offenses a futile series of painful failure for approximately 3 seemingly interminable hours. So, no pressure, Adrian.
Speaking of Xzavier Dickson--whose first name is a spectacular instance of adherence to pure phonetics in naming--is the other linebacker with above average pass rushing ability on the roster. Again, it appears that he's still in the mix for time at SAM, but for now it looks like Dickson will man the Jack position. Otherwise, if Hubbard ultimately wins the JLB competition, Dickson slots in at SAM, replacing Jerrell Harris. Dickson, listed at 6-3 262, is a full 20 pounds heavier than Harris, which would seem to make the decision of whether or not to take him off the field on passing downs even easier. In fact, Dickson worked with the defensive ends last season, notching time as a backup (in addition to some special teams reps). The link includes video of Dickson running around doing drills and such, if you're the sort of person to go on crazed extrapolative benders induced by brief and meaningless practice clips. Either way, he looks the part of the SAM. However, concerns re: experience are even more relevant here than they are for Hubbard.
The Replacements
In the middle, we have our old friend Trey DePriest, whom many thought was going to be a Wolverine at one point during his recruitment. Of course, that didn't happen, and DePriest is now a sophomore at Alabama. The continuing theme here is youth, and although it's not as if DePriest was handed the position (Tana Patrick, a once big time linebacker recruit, was competing for this spot), I might be slightly worried about DePriest starting if I was an Alabama fan. There's not much to say here other than the fact that we know the potential is there, it just hasn't had the opportunity to manifest itself on the field.
DePriest did see some game action last season as a true freshman, notching at least one tackle in every game save the Georgia State and Auburn matchups (in which he either didn't play or didn't make his mark on the stat sheet). In the season opener against Kent State, DePriest tallied 10 total tackles. Playing Kent State is like training on Dagobah, though; you might do some things, but how impressive or ultimately meaningful is it until you prove it in a competitive environment (i.e. SEC play/Darth Vader)?
Tana Patrick is another player competing for time in the middle. The name should be vaguely familiar, as Michigan was once in on Patrick's recruitment several years back. Unfortunately, Patrick will be a redshirt junior this season, having yet to make his mark on the field. Patrick (6-3 236) has seen game action the last two seasons, but apparently nothing meaningful enough to write home about. At this point, it looks like he'll be DePriest's backup.
The rest of the list here contains mostly fresh faces. Jonathan Atchinson (6-3 236), who looks to back up Dickson/Hubbard at the Jack position, will be a redshirt junior this season. He has the reputation of a guy with speed and play-making ability in the backfield, which is pretty much what the JLB spot calls for. He'll be in the mix, but it's anybody's guess how much of a factor he'll be against Michigan.
Alabama also boasts talented early enrollees Dillon Lee and Ryan Anderson. Lee has practiced both on the inside and outside positions, whereas Anderson seems to be strictly an outside linebacker. If either play against Michigan, then something has probably gone terribly wrong for either Alabama or Michigan.
General Spring Minutiae/Encomium That Results In A "Bristling" Saban
We already know about Nico Johnson and CJ Mosley. They've been around and will likely be tasked with calming guys down...with Denard across the way and a hyper-electric stadium, a little nervousness on the part of guys like Hubbard, Dickson, DePriest would be understandable (especially early on). The good news for Alabama is that Mosley seems to have recovered from his hip injury quite nicely:
"I wouldn't say 100%, but I'm just getting there every day. Rehabbing is going pretty well. I did a little rehab over spring break, but overall I'm feeling good at practice running around."That was as of late March, so he should be fine by September barring any further aggravation.
Roll Bama Roll on Adrian Hubbard's A-Day performance:
The standout on defense yesterday was unquestionably Sam linebacker Adrian Hubbard, who may have had the best spring of any player on the roster. He was a consistently dominant force yesterday and could possibly be considered one of the defensive stars at this point. By putting him at Sam linebacker with Xzavier Dickson at Jack, Nick Saban and company effectively have two Jacks on the field, which largely makes for a true 5-2 base defense and provides countless alignment possibilities.So, I'm not sure the distinction between what Dickson and Hubbard will be doing on the field is all that significant. Some more Hubbard praise on ESPN's SEC Blog:
Hubbard had a monster spring for the Crimson Tide. He takes over for Courtney Upshaw at the Jack position and the people at Alabama think he might be the Tide's top pass-rusher this fall. The rising sophomore earned the Dwight Stephenson Lineman of the Game Award given to the spring game's most valuable lineman after registering seven tackles, including four tackles for loss and 3.0 sacks.From a late March practice report re: Hubbard and Dickson:
In one drill, Alabama had not only six defensive backs in the secondary but outside linebacker Adrian Hubbard was deep in the middle, too. Hubbard is a 6-foot-6, 237-pound redshirt sophomore-to-be who backed up Jack linebacker Courtney Upshaw last season. Hubbard was a football and basketball star in high school. He looks as if he can be a playmaker on the defense, but in the secondary in a dime defense? Perhaps that means sophomore-to-be Xzavier Dickson is targeted more as the pass-rushing Jack linebacker.While the SLB/JLB positions aren't set in stone, one thing is for sure: Saban will throw a more than a few looks at Michigan, no matter who is on the field for the Tide. Borges has all summer to come up with a way to combat each set; however, at the end of the day, Denard and Co. need to go out and make Borges's schematic etchings come to life. Even the best laid plans can combust when crossing the river separating conception and reality.
Things to Think About/Watch Out For/ARE WE GONNA DIE?
- This is another "maybe, maybe not" answer to the question of whether we are going to die or not. Guys like Hubbard and Dickson are reportedly excellent athletes with superior pass rushing ability...but, they haven't done it in actual games that matter yet. While I do believe that they are as talented as Alabama partisans are saying that they are, doing it in practice is different from doing it in a game (let alone trying to get around tandem bike aficionado Taylor Lewan).
- How much of the game on September 1st will Bama utilize the base 3-4? According to Saban, Alabama has only played out of the 3-4 approximately 20% of the time of late, with the other 80% accounted for by traditional 4-3 sets (in addition to the nickel). As RBR notes, with Dickson and Hubbard on the field at the same time, it also leaves the door open for some unique 5-2 looks and potential mass confusion on Michigan's part. Either way, with Denard's speed and Michigan's lack of a true power running game, Saban will probably be looking to get as much speed on the field as possible, which probably leads one to believe that September 1st will be a busy day for CJ Mosley.
- What will Trey DePriest's role be on September 1st? I would think that he wouldn't be on the field in nickel situations, and when Bama moves to a traditional 4-3 look, Nico Johnson can/will man the MIKE position. The former 5-star 'backer will have his day in the sun, but I'm not sure that the Michigan game will provide his best chance to shine.
Meaningless Grade That I Will Give Out Anyway
In spite of the talent that exists here, I would be the most worried about this position group if I was an Alabama fan. This group could be given an A based on talent alone, but I have to give them a B simply because, outside of Mosley and Johnson, there is very little game experience to be found. Dickson, Hubbard, and DePriest are all very talented guys that will prove to be very productive players, but it's very difficult for me to imagine them performing on 9/1 at even 75-80% of level that Upshaw and Hightower did last year. No matter how great a defensive mind Saban is and no matter how talented these replacements are, there will be some slippage.
Ultimately, how much slippage there is will partly determine whether or not Michigan will have a chance at consistently moving the ball. This Alabama front 7 will be very good...but, it is very green. Assuming Michigan's offensive line holds up adequately, I'm confident that a veteran like Al Borges will be able to come up with something to take advantage of Bama's overall lack of experience. Whether that "something" leads to first downs and touchdowns on the field is another issue entirely. After watching Virginia Tech's defense stifle Michigan for most of the game, it's difficult to be too overconfident. Given the multiplicity of the Alabama defense and its overall athleticism, Borges will certainly earn his paycheck if Michigan can score somewhere in the 20s.
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