Notre Dame 70, Michigan 63: End of the road

You can't say this hasn't been an exciting ride.

From the back-to-back nonconference thumpings against Xavier and UConn forever ago to the upset home wins against Maryland and Purdue to the Big Ten Tournament thriller against Indiana, this season rolled up and down like the contours of the North Campus wave field.

And tonight, despite leading 41-29 at the half, the Wolverines' ride came to an end, with a 70-63 loss against sixth-seeded Notre Dame in Brooklyn.

As you already know (and heard several times tonight), these two teams won't meet on the gridiron anytime soon, but this game had all of the makings of a classic football contest in Ann Arbor or South Bend, in a Barclays Center packed with alumni of both schools. Runs, punches and counter-punches, raucous roars, and coaches' calculations. Errors, triumphs and a result, yielding elation and deflation.

Unfortunately for Michigan, the song was much the same, following the same tune that has been a through line buzzing at the season's musical heart.

Zak Irvin and Derrick Walton shot a combined 8-for-29 from the field, with Irvin starting 1-for-10 from the field, his shot looking as discombobulated as ever. Given his past success, you'd think the fix would be akin to restarting your computer and hoping whatever ailed it went away, but it hasn't been so simple for the junior from Fishers, Ind.

But for the first 20 minutes, Michigan looked as good as it's looked all season. The defense was swarming, and the Wolverines held a +8 turnover margin (ND-10, UM-2) going into the break.

ND's Zach Auguste turned the ball over, a steal by Irvin, who dished to Aubrey Dawkins for a layup, giving Michigan a 26-13 lead just before the 8-minute media timeout. That would prove to be the apex of Michigan's lead.

The collapse, however, didn't happen until the second half. Notre Dame cut the Michigan lead to five, but Michigan closed the half with a 7-0 run, capped by a Moritz Wagner layup that took a round-trip flight to Berlin around before coming back to JFK and falling in as time expired.

But, this is tournament basketball. After 20: reset.

Unfortunately for John Beilein and Co., Michigan didn't and Notre Dame did. The Fighting Irish bested the Wolverines in the second half, 41-22.

One storyline I've already seen on Twitter tonight is Beilein's decision to keep Wagner out for too long late (he picked up his third foul 4:15 into the second half and his fourth with 5:38 remaining), playing Ricky Doyle late in a key portion of the game. As one who is loath to criticize Beilein, I can't argue with that point.

After another season of Michigan basketball, the referendum is in: Mark Donnal, Ricky Doyle and DJ Wilson (who did not play at all tonight) are not the answer to Michigan's frontcourt woes.

Wagner is.

He was a spark in the Indiana win, scoring nine points and grabbing two offensive rebounds in 16 minutes. He was a spark tonight, too, with six points on 3-for-3 shooting from the field. Of course, he's not perfect, and he's certainly not Mitch McGary -- but he is clearly Michigan's best option in the frontcourt.

In retrospect, Wagner's nearly complete disappearance during conference play will go down as one of the most puzzling parts of this season. At the very least, it was a missed opportunity to prepare Wagner for what will assuredly be a central role in the rotation next season.

In the end, Michigan didn't make the plays that teams need to make come tournament time. I don't know how many finishes Donnal et al didn't convert at the rim, but it was too many (and I hate to criticize guys like that, but it is what it is). A missed attempt at the rim by Donnal with just over two minutes to go and Michigan down 64-61 stands out among the rest.

The game was still in reach late, with Michigan down 66-63 and possessing the ball after a Wagner rebound with 44 seconds left.

The possession ended with a familiar shot: an inadvisable three by Irvin, launched from Uniondale.

I get it, though. Late in the game, players like Irvin want that shot, no matter how many they've missed before that particular shot. But it wasn't even about the player taking the shot, but the circumstances of it. Michigan could have taken a two and forced ND to make its free throws. It could have even called a timeout and figured something out (although a player on the floor would have had to call it) -- and, as we know, there aren't too many people better than Beilein at drawing something up in the sand out of a timeout.

But neither of those things happened, and Irvin's long-range attempt fell off the mark.

Really, there was no other way for this to end.

Michigan's offense, predicated almost entirely on the success of its three-point shot, took this rusty bucket of bolts just about as far it could. Losing is never fun, but when looking back at this season, and factoring in the injuries to Caris LeVert and Spike Albrecht, it seems to me that the Wolverines squeezed out just about as many wins as they had a right to.

It's easy to think "what if." What if Michigan wins tonight and then gets a matchup against Stephen F. Austin, who looked fearsome tonight but perhaps plays into Michigan's hands (see 2013 VCU game)?

What if?

Well, the tournament isn't about what-ifs. Results are all there is. The cold bracket cares not for injuries, team history, feel-good stories, justice.

A Friday night in Brooklyn is the only thing that matters, in a building hosting more fans than the average game for the NBA team that happens to play there.

---
There are thoughts to add and little observations to wrap up in a bow, but now's not the time for that.

But, Michigan basketball is at a crossroads. Beilein has taken Michigan to the next level, but the success of recent years has set a bar that is not consistently attainable for most college basketball programs, let alone Michigan's, which has had its successes over the decades but is otherwise not among the elites.

So where do we go from here?

Michigan brings in point guard Xavier Simpson, two bigs standing at 6-10 and 6-11, and 6-4 SG Ibi Watson. Everyone from this team returns, save LeVert, of course, and most likely Albrecht, despite occasional rumblings that he could come back for another go.

I won't pretend to know how I think the aforementioned current high schoolers will perform as freshmen, but expecting anything of note is not a good idea.

For the most part, this team will, at its core, be what it was this season. The only difference will be whether or not certain players can: a) take a jump (e.g. Wagner) or b) get back to previous levels of play (e.g. Irvin).

For now, there's not much use speculating. Beilein will be back, and Michigan will, for once, have a fairly experienced college basketball team, led by juniors and seniors. Every rotation player of note currently on the team will be a junior or senior (Wilson will be a redshirt sophomore).

As topsy-turvy as this season was, it wasn't without joy. Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman gradually proved himself -- he might not ever be an elite player, but he plays fearlessly. And unlike the prototypical Beilein player, his offensive game is more playground than Princeton -- take the ball to the hole and make a play. That's something every basketball fan can respect, even in a day dominated by the three-point shot.

Michigan has work to do, that much is clear. The program is in a strange place -- two down years following two transcendent ones, led by a coach who has exceeded inherent expectations everywhere he's been and is widely considered one of the best tacticians in the game.

But what happens when success breeds augmented expectations? What happens when making the tournament is seen as a given rather than a luxury? What happens when fans start wondering why the program doesn't reel in the most talented players rather than lauding the coach for identifying and developing the diamond in the rough?

We'll find out next season, I suppose.

For now, we say goodbye to a 2015-16 season that was simultaneously disappointing yet seemingly perfectly fit to reasonable expectations.

One team moves on. Another doesn't, beginning its offseason: the season of questions.

HTR's Weekly 25: Week 1

For a while here, I dabbled in writing a little about Chicago sports (which, as I then had the time, was fun, even if it went unread), I've written traditional game recaps of various Big Ten games (football and basketball) and various other little things along the way.

But, when I started this thing five years ago, it was with football, particularly Michigan football, in mind.

So, while my work as a regular journalist keeps me busy, I'm going to try to create some regularity here. I've tried in the past, with some success during the football and basketball seasons, before dropping back once summer hits.

Well, I'll worry about the summer once it returns next year: for now, the easiest way to stay engaged in the college football scene is by, what else, compiling a weekly set of by and large meaningless rankings.

Does my opinion mean anything? No, not really -- but the older I get, the less justifiable watching hours of football becomes without doing something meaningful with it ("meaning," here, is a generous term).

So, with that, here's my personal top 25 after the first week's worth of action:

1. Ohio State. Talk about a no-brainer. The Buckeyes marched into Blacksburg, missing their best defender in Joey Bosa and several other players, and still dominated despite turning it over a couple of times. Braxton Miller as utility playmaking type is a terrifying concept. Who would've thought that he would one day be a Heisman candidate...as a wide receiver? That spin move will probably feature prominently in college football promo commercials for OSU games the rest of the season, and for good reason. Ohio State appears to be on track to cruise to another playoff appearance.

2. Alabama. The Crimson Tide simply beat up a Badgers team that, for the first time in recent memory, is somewhat shaky on the offensive line. Even so, the Badgers' normally prolific rushing attack was non-existent, with UW tailback Corey Clement carrying it just 8 times for 16 yards before sitting the rest of the game out with an injury. While Joel Stave had a nice game, UW had no answer for Alabama's own rushing attack. It should be no surprise that, like conference mate Georgia, Alabama has multiple tailbacks who can get the job done. Quarterback Jake Coker's (15-of-21, 213 yards, 1 TD) longest completion of the day, in fact, was a 33-yarder to tailback Kenyan Drake. Once again, Alabama appears to be the football equivalent of the trash compactor from "Star Wars."

3. TCU. Okay, you can say the score of their season-opening win at Minnesota didn't inspire confidence. But I give credit for road wins, and the Gophers aren't a pushover. Minnesota lacks offensive punch, but they're still a tough out, and the Horned Frogs got the job done on a hot evening in Minnesota (yes, hot, Minnesota).

4. Auburn. Similarly, it's hard to say the Tigers had an exceptional Week 1, but again, I give credit for beating a real opponent. More importantly for Auburn fans, the defense looked okay, forcing two turnovers and holding Louisville quarterbacks Lamar Jackson and Reggie Bonnafon to a combined 5.06 yards per attempt. Sure, new Auburn quarterback Jeremy Johnson struggled, but I think you'd rather have the defense do okay and the young quarterback struggle than the other way around...at least at this stage of the season.

5. Michigan State. Again, file this under the "not impressive box score but still good" category. Also, props are in order for traveling to Kalamazoo. Of course, this week's tilt against Oregon is the nonconference game of note for the Spartans.

6. Baylor. Maybe I'm giving excessive weight to the halftime score against SMU (28-21, Baylor). But, again, this was a road game, and it's a long season. As long as they continue to win, that first 30 minutes will be nothing but a minor footnote.

7. Notre Dame. Okay, beating Texas -- let alone dismantling them -- doesn't mean much now, but the Longhorns were at least expected to be able to play some defense. The Fighting Irish disproved that assumption, racking up 527 yards of offense and holding the Longhorns to just 20:50 in possession (yes, I know, a meaningless stat in and of itself, but still an indicator of how the game went).

8. Oregon. I know, it's only Week 1, but the Ducks gave up a whopping 42 points and 549 total yards against Eastern Washington. That won't work out too well against conference competition.

9. Georgia. A ho-hum blowout, a college football Week 1 tradition. Todd Gurley is plying his trade in St. Louis, but Nick Chubb and Keith Marshall will do just fine for UGA (that's an understatement).

10. UCLA. Virginia isn't a powerhouse by any stretch of the imagination, but the Bruins looked strong against major conference competition, and quarterback Josh Rosen was tremendous (28-of-35, 351 yards, 3 TDs).

The wild back 15:

11. USC
12. Florida State
13. Clemson
14. Texas A&M
15. Georgia Tech
16. LSU
17. Arkansas
18. Ole Miss
19. Boise State
20. Oklahoma
21. Missouri
22. Tennessee
23. Arizona
24. Mississippi State
25. Utah

Miscellaneous Minutiae, 9/27/13

Take the week off, Big House. You deserve it. 

It's a sunny, 75-degree, decidedly un-Fall like day here in the Windy City; I guess we'll have to wait a little while longer before football weather arrives. In the meantime, have some links to prepare you for tomorrow's slate of games around the country: 

• On the injury front for Wisconsin--mentioned in Breaking Points yesterday--Coach Gary Andersen cleared a few things up, but didn't give anything definitive on tight end Jacob Pedersen, a big piece of the Badgers' passing game. Without Pedersen, star receiver Jared Abbrederis is Wisconsin's only dangerous receiving threat. That is not a formula for success against a very good Buckeye secondary, especially with Bradley Roby set to match up against Abbrederis. On the bright side for UW, Peniel Jean will go, meaning freshman Sojourn Shelton won't have to make the start. On the not so bright side, freshman center Dan Voltz will likely make his first start. This game would have been tough enough if the Badgers were completely healthy, but now, I'm thinking my prediction of a UW 7-point loss might have been slightly optimistic in favor of Andersen's squad. 

• Eleven Warriors previews this all-important Leaders division clash. Land Grant Holy Land has a preview, too. 

• Keys and storylines for LSU-Georgia. 

• Ron Higgins of NOLA.com talks SEC defense, and why it might not be as great as it has been. 

• If you're looking for some early season rivalry action, the always underrated Minnesota-Iowa game is your ticket. As always, Floyd of Rosedale is on the line, and the Gophers look to bring that pig back to the Twin Cities. The Daily Gopher has a Q&A with RossWB of Black Heart Gold Pants. 

• Four factors from BHGP for Saturday's game at TCF Bank Stadium (3:30 ET, ABC). 

• The undefeated Ole Miss Rebels head to Tuscaloosa this Saturday; Roll Bama Roll previews the Bo Wallace-led Ole Miss offense. It's been two weeks now since the Texas A&M game, so I'm not sure this counts as a "trap" game, but the Crimson Tide cannot take this Ole Miss team lightly. 

• Andrew Gribble of al.com talks to Hugh Kellenberger of the Jackson Clarion-Ledger about Ole Miss-Bama. 

• ESPN guys talk Oklahoma-Notre Dame. The Sooners will be making their first trip to Notre Dame Stadium since 1999. 

Miscellaneous Minutiae, 9/19/13

Another dreary, sun-less day here in Chicago...in other words, it's fall. Some hopefully not so dreary links:

• Beau Allen, the nose guard in Wisconsin's new look 3-4 defense, enjoys Trolli Eggs. 

• Brad Edwards briefly previews Michigan-UConn (and KSU-Texas). 

• Bruce Feldman goes behind the scenes in College Station to see how the Aggies prepared for Alabama. 
• Bret Bielema has the fifth highest salary in the Southeastern Conference. With bonuses, he'll be making just over a cool $1 million more than he made last season in Madison. 

• Hoke is pulling for the Spartans this weekend (and takes a light jab at the refs from the Wisconsin-Arizona State game).

• Penn State and West Virginia will renew a series that hasn't been played since 1992, with a home-and-home between the two schools set for 2023 and 2024. 

• The Only Colors has a Q&A with Notre Dame blog One Foot Down. 

• This is a few weeks old, but Sam Marshall at SB Nation's "The UConn Blog" wrote about his trip to the Big House in 2010. It's always funny reading the awed impressions of outsiders (including the recent write up by a USF fan) when so many Michigan fans find the Big House environment lacking. 

Miscellaneous Minutiae, 9/11/13

A few things on this 82 degree day in Chicago (somehow over 10 degrees cooler than it was yesterday):

• It's a big week for the Big Ten, with Wisconsin traveling out west to face Arizona State and Ohio State taking on a rebuilding but dangerous Cal team. Additionally, Nebraska takes on UCLA at home, looking to avenge last year's loss out west. Adam Rittenberg makes a "Delany=Mickey Goldmill" analogy. Good, good.

• Speaking of, Bucky's 5th Quarter previews UW's tilt in Tempe. ASU will be aggressive defensively, so hopefully Joel Stave is ready to make a few more plays through the air if the running game happens to stall here and there (unlikely, but it's also unlikely that the Badgers have a third week with three 100+ yard backs). 

• Sippin' on Purple charts the performance of Colter/Siemian against Syracuse in the Prose Bowl. The Wildcats take on Western Michigan this week (I'm thinking about heading up there for it). It will not be close, and Glopknar will memorialize the crushing victory with tremendous video skills. I can't wait to find out what Traevon's coverage/squat status is this week. 

• If you want to go to Alabama-TAMU this week, you better have a little money. 

• Hammer and Rails previews Purdue's matchup against Notre Dame at Ross-Ade Stadium. Needless to say, Purdue hasn't exactly had the best of starts, getting pummeled by Cincinnati and then squeaking by Indiana State. That, combined with their lack of recent success against Notre Dame and the Fighting Irish's desire to get back on the winning track probably means this one ends up in the losing column for the conference. 

• Michigan-Ohio State: BAND WARS. 

Shameless Self-Promotion Time: Notre Dame

I wrote about the game over at Maize n Brew here. That wasn't as heart-stopping as any of the 2009-11 games, but there is something nice about taking an early lead and then keeping it throughout (save for the time the game was tied 10-10).

More important than the "IS THIS A RIVALRY" debate is this incredibly important question...which stare was weirder: Eminem's at halftime or this guy's?

One More Time

If you had not heard by now, tucked away in a bubble impervious to news: Michigan will take on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish this Saturday in the Big House for the last time in some time.

I highly doubt it will be the last time ever, but given the nature of this series, it is probably unwise to assume a resumption of the series (after it officially ends next season in South Bend, of course) in the near future.

Brian Kelly and Brady Hoke have traded "barbs" (or what amounts to that in the stultifying coachspeakverse of 2013) over the last week with respect to the status of the rivalry. Michigan vs. Notre Dame: is it all it's cracked up to be? I don't know if Kelly (or Notre Dame fans) believes what he said, but I'm not sure it matters. As always, words obfuscate, distort and distract; they are a flock of birds fleeing a loud crash in unison. You look and see the birds, forgetting about the sound at all. It is as if it never happened.

The 2007 game, during my freshman year at Michigan, was my first live, in-person experience of the rivalry. The day was a grim, forgettable one. Michigan was Henne-less, but Notre Dame was overmatched, even against a Michigan team that had just lost two games in a row, extinguishing the expectant fire of its preseason ranking like a weakly flickering candle's flame. The Wolverines romped, 38-0, but that one, like the 2003 game of the same score, was an aberration in this series.

The 2009 game was a strange one, simply because it existed in the post-2008 universe but the pre-collapse universe. In other words, it was September. Notre Dame erased an 11-point 4th quarter deficit but with the chance to seal the deal late, Charlie Weis chose to pass on both second and third downs. Tate Forcier, before all the other stuff happened, was not someone you wanted to give one final chance to on that day in Ann Arbor.

On first and goal, Michigan's LaTerryal Savoy dropped a pass in the end zone. On the next play, Forcier went back to the same side, only this time Greg Mathews reeled the pass in for the touchdown, running back through the end zone toward the Michigan sideline, a run only interrupted by his frantic delivery of the football to the referee.

In 2011, my first game after graduating, the Big House was thrown into a void where nothing made sense. Up became down, down became up, and the simple became difficult. After a long build-up that Saturday, I should've realized that my chance run-in with Lloyd Carr before the game was a sign that this was not a den bound by reality.

Nonetheless, Michigan stumbled through three quarters, as if entrenched in a bad dream. But, eventually the lights against the night sky awoke the Wolverines, and Roy Roundtree caught his first pass of the day with just two seconds left to play.

Even when things haven't gone Michigan's way, something extraordinary has happened. In 2002, Carlyle Holiday fumbled at the goal line. In 2005, Chad Henne appeared to be in the end zone, but fumbled it away (or so they said). In 2010, then safety Cam Gordon gave up a touchdown that, at the moment, seemed to be a death knell. In 2012, Michigan turned the ball over six times, on six straight possessions. I don't know how often that happens in rivalry games, but I'm willing to bet that if it were to happen between any two teams, it would be Michigan and Notre Dame, whether in Ann Arbor or South Bend.

Michigan and Notre Dame won't so much be losing a rivalry; Michigan still has Michigan State and Ohio State, and, in truth, that is probably enough to keep most people occupied. But for anyone who grew up in the Midwest, the loss of Michigan-Notre Dame is not just the loss of another rivalry among a coterie of rivalries.

When these teams take the field, more often that not something very strange happens. Sometimes it benefits Michigan, other times Notre Dame. The football bounces in way it should not, and the better team often loses. Bad calls are made, by both coaches and referees, and young players wilt under the heat (or the cool night) of the early September sun, or South Bend's blue-gray sky.

This isn't a rivalry, an ongoing series of games played one here and one there into perpetuity. No, that would be too simple and quite frankly, a little boring.

What's being lost is this: two Midwestern giants on the stage, as Fate slings arrows indiscriminately at the actors from afar. Michigan-Notre Dame is not just another game: it is theater. Chaotic, anarchic theater. And when the two teams leave the field around midnight this Saturday, the lights will shine somberly. Exeunt. 

Shameless Self-Promotion Time (Notre Dame)

With the upcoming bye week, it is a good time to take a timeout on the season in order to reassess some things, to maybe: talk to your family, go "outside", read a book, watch The Program and secretly wish that Tim Waymen was currently on Michigan's roster (then smack yourself in the face for thinking this), etc. (HT: Mike DeSimone)

Michigan is 2-2, and man this season has not been that much fun so far. In any case, here's this week's helping of self-promotion:

• Over at Maize n Brew I talked about Saturday's game/thing/whatever-you-even-want-to-call-that against Notre Dame. I think the bye week will be good for all of us, players, coaches, and fans alike. It isn't all doom and gloom. Michigan might not be "playing Michigan football" on offense, as Hoke will say whenever Michigan doesn't play well, but the defense was pretty good, and that is not something that should be discounted after several straight seasons of bumbling defensive incompetence. Unfortunately, with Michigan starting 2-2, the seemingly unanimous preseason prediction of 9-3, give or take a game, is looking like it will fall on the lower end (i.e. 8-4). Michigan has next week off, which is good for guys like Brennen Beyer and Stephen Hopkins, and will give Devin Gardner a chance to heal after his run in with that metal photographer's stand (that is, assuming that his injury is of the short-ish term variety, which it very well might not be if Internet rumblings are to be believed). 

Notre Dame Preview: Once Is A Mistake, Twice Is A Coincidence

After a brief hiatus--UMass being, you know, UMass--I'm back to the Friday morning previewin' game. Given that it is Notre Dame, most of this could probably be whittled down to "Denard Robinson needs to do Denard Robinson things", but...here it is, anyway. 


Time: 7:30 ET (NBC)
Place: Notre Dame Stadium--South Bend, IN
Line: Notre Dame -5 1/2
Mood: Like someone at a craps table, hoping for one more run before retreating into the night. 

(HT: Mike DeSimone)

The Exposition 
Making an attempt to explain the last three games in this series is as useless as counting the stars in the sky or pondering the meaning of life: really, they happened and they're there, and that's all you need to know. That doesn't mean that we can't mythologize or look back through layers of intoxicating nostalgia, it's just that these three separate 3-hour events, twice in Ann Arbor and once in South Bend, defy any attempts at empirical or rational reckoning. Try to explain last year's Notre Dame game to a friend and all the clocks within a one mile radius will begin to melt and Salvador Dalí will emerge from a wormhole to smack you across the face and say bastante. 

Sure, these past performances certainly will be hanging in the air over Notre Dame Stadium on Saturday, a reminder to ND fans and players of how things can go so utterly wrong, of how deep the abyss is, as well as the concern that there might be even further depths which remain to be visited. Of course, on the Michigan side, it will all be a subtle nod to the power of magic. The power of Denard Robinson, like gravity, is unseen but knowable and therefore some sort of benevolent sorcery, kind of like having Gandalf on your side. You don't know where he will come from and at what point in the proceedings, but he eventually does, and with spectacular results, results that make you feel as if your cause is...invincible. 

With that said, the aforementioned is nice to talk about but not as important as many will have you believe. Past performance does not ensure future results, and magical coincidence is more often than not just magical coincidence. When Michigan and Notre Dame meet, especially in South Bend, all layers of reality and preconceived notions are stripped away, which is basically just a roundabout way of telling you to take them there record books and throw 'em out.

Like every Michigan-ND game, there's an unnerving anticipation in the buildup that is only intensified by the 7:30 start time. Although both teams have already faced big tests and marquee opponents, this is still the one of the primary forks in the road in each team's season. Lose and feel the expectations temper and languish. Win and, rightly or wrongly, watch the expectations soar.

Michigan Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense 
I know that the whole "just do what Alabama did" became somewhat of a meme this week, but there are some similarities between Alabama and ND: they both deploy the 3-4 defense that deploys a rush linebacker sort that goes by a special name. For Alabama, it was the "Jack" linebacker. For the Irish, the position is branded the "Cat" linebacker position, which doesn't seem very cool, creative, or in any topical but okay Notre Dame  coaches too busy thinking about football to come up with good gimmicky position names.

While I'm not sure just yet that Prince Shembo is as good as Courtney Upshaw was for Alabama at the JLB spot, he's pretty darn good (and also fantastically named). Shembo had his best game of the season last week against MSU, amassing 9 of his 15 total tackles on the year, including a sack (2 TFLs). At, 6'2'' 250 and sporting the #55, I'm kind of reminded of Brandon Graham, which probably isn't an accurate comparison but whatever. He is a terror, and Michael Schofield (and Vincent Smith) will need to be on their pass pro games if Denard is not going to be Shembo'd into oblivion.

I'm not positive that Diaco will release the hounds when it comes to the defensive ends, #89 Kapron Lewis-Moore and #7 Stephon Tuitt, but the linebackers have certainly been aggressive the last couple of seasons. This has allowed Denard to do Denardian things once he's gotten out to the second level. I think this will need to happen again, as I don't see Michigan's interior line having much success moving NT Louis Nix; again, I'm not sure that Nix=Jesse Williams, but he is definitely very good. As I read Ace's FFFF post yesterday, the section on Nix sort of reminded me of, yup...Jerel Worthy. That is not a very good thing of which to be reminded.

Quite frankly, Michigan will not have much reproducible success running the ball with Toussaint; if any back has success in this game, I have a strange hunch that that back is Vincent Smith. Michigan will find itself in passing situations fairly often, and Smith could prove useful swinging out to the flat and/or filling into the zones which blitzing, hyperactive linebackers have just vacated in the middle of the field. Of course, the only problem with that is that Smith is of course tiny--see: Denard's INT against Air Force--and Denard being who he is will probably lead to some more dangerously errant passes. Throw it high enough but low enough for it to hit Smith in the fingertips and you're looking at a basic tip drill for the D.

Al Borges made a nice point in one of this week's pressers about his confusion regarding the fans' strange insistence that rushing yards only "count" when they come from a running back; against Notre Dame, Michigan has gotten it done on the ground with Denard and Denard alone. Is that type of strategy sustainable? Well, you tell me, 2010 and 2011 scoreboards. However, can it happen again? I'm not so sure.

The only scenario in which I see Michigan having some success on the ground with somebody not named Denard is, you guessed it, by successfully attacking Notre Dame's vulnerable, depleted secondary. Andrew Maxwell and his receivers were not able to take advantage of ND's secondary despite having 8+ defenders in the box with regularity, but I'd like to think that Michigan's QB and receivers are significantly more dangerous than their Spartan counterparts.

In short, yes, I am unironically saying that Michigan should go with the Alabama gameplan this week. ND's defense is several degrees inferior to Alabama's but is also quite possibly the best defense left of Michigan's schedule. I'm definitely not saying that we shouldn't run Denard much for fear of injury or something (as was the theory behind that strategy on 9/1), but running Denard left and right right off the bat is something that ND will be ready for.

Michigan Defense vs. Notre Dame Offense 
Listening to the MGoPodcast this week, the consensus seems to be that Everett Golson is sort of in his ur-Denard (to borrow Matt Hinton's phraseology) stage as a quarterback: a not necessarily accurate guy who can make big plays but also mess up the basic ones. He is an exciting prospect, certainly more exciting than Rees and Dayne Crist were, but still very much in the inchoate stages of his development.

Like Denard, Golson is not exactly Cam Newton; at 6'0'' 185 (according to his official Notre Dame profile, at least), he's bound to be called things like "slight" and "willowy" and "probably-needs-to-eat-more". Regardless, he has flashed the playmaking ability that is giving me some bad flashbacks of the 2004 Ohio State game in which a young Troy Smith had himself a day against a favored Michigan team. Needless to say, we have to hope that when Notre Dame drops back to pass, Golson's arms turns into a Ramen noodle or something and that Michigan's can mitigate the lack of a formidable pass rush by keeping contain and not letting Golson run around a la Smith circa 2004.

In average passing situations--i.e. when Golson isn't just freestylin' and profilin'--Michigan should be okay. Notre Dame's receiving options don't really worry me, and I think our corners will be just fine. Tyler Eifert is the next guy in a long line of Notre Dame NFL quality tight ends, but Eifert seems to be more of the hyrbrid WR/TE Greg Olsen/Travis Beckum/etc. sort than a traditional pseudo-lineman with clubs for hands that only catch 1-yard play action passes in goal to go situations. Eifert can really play, and will be a matchup problem when going up against pretty much anybody in Michigan's back 7; strangely, however, Eifert did not record a reception against MSU last week.

Otherwise, there isn't a Michael Floyd in this group, although these are still ND recruits and thus capable of doing damage; after all, let's not forget that our starting corners are likely J.T. Floyd, a sometimes maligned former safety and Raymon Taylor, a still fairly green true sophomore. I have great faith in Taylor, and he's been my "guy who I'm irrationally excited about" since he got playing time early on in the 2011 season. Still, the thought of him playing the field corner spot on the road with a taller receiver like DaVaris Daniels across the way from him or a speedster like TJ Jones (who is most famous for doing this). He did also do this last year to make it 24-7, making the situation seem nearly hopeless for the Wolverines:

Similarly, Robby Toma is a tiny, white receiver and is therefore Wes Welker, so Michigan will need to keep an eye on him and Jones on screens and other slowly developing plays (e.g. the above drag route). 

Unfortunately, like on offense, Michigan is at a disadvantage up front. Notre Dame has an experienced line that will look to run the ball with multiple backs, with Cierre Wood being the headliner and Theo Riddick and George Atkinson providing quality depth. The Irish didn't have an extremely prolific day running the ball, but they were actually fairly effective, with 27 carries going for 129 yards (4.8 YPC, with Golson's sacks taken out). Two things: a) compare that to how Michigan did against MSU last season on the ground and b) remember that Michigan's defensive front is nowhere near as good as MSU's, and you have two fairly worrisome things going on. 

While Notre Dame's receiving corps doesn't necessarily have a star, it's not too difficult to imagine ND racking up a yardage total that equals or exceeds last year's 513. Unless the light suddenly turns on and Campbell, Washington, etc. can finally get any sort of push at the POA, Michigan is in for a long day. Even with a less refined passer in Golson in the game, Notre Dame will still threaten to drown Michigan in a tidal wave of yards and first downs. The Michigan defense's life preserver will once again have to be forced (and unforced) turnovers on ND's part. 

What Needs To Happen, Fergodsakes 
On offense:

• The Rex Grossman philosophy of offense. I'm pretty sure Al Borges is secretly a big Rex Grossman fan, and that will hopefully show on Saturday by going deep early and often. Remember the Northwestern game last season? Michigan needs to attack downfield just like they did against the Wildcats. 
• Please no I-form running. This goes without saying, but Michigan spent an inordinate amount of time during UTL last season plugging away from under center with no success. I'm pretty sure we've all learned our lesson at this point, and it's pretty apparent that Michigan's interior trio is not moving anybody in traditional running sets. 
• Accurate Denard, don't be a mirage por favor. Fairly self-explanatory, but if Michigan is going to mitigate the disparity in respective line strength, Denard will need to complete some passes from the pocket early on at every level (dumpoffs, intermediate routes, and deep). Like many teams these days, I expect DC Bob Diaco to keep his ends mostly in contain mode, so rolling Denard out could be asking for a lot of balls harmlessly falling to the turf after Tuitt or Lewis-Moore do their best Dikembe Mutombo impression. 

On defense:

• Like a broken record...say it with me: BEND BUT DON'T BREAK. This is just simply Michigan's calling card until Michigan's youngsters become upper classmen. ND will rack up yards, they will probably get at least one first down on a given drive more often that not, and they will probably score in or around their 2011 total. 
• Show me time. With Desmond Morgan looking like he's back in the starting lineup, it's time for him and Kenny Demens to reassert themselves as the starters, especially on the heels of a recent charge by freshmen James Ross III and Joe Bolden. Morgan had a bit of a tough time against ND last season, and he's struggled to start the season and then had a "head problem" that kept him out last week. I would rather not have to see too much of Bolden and Ross on Saturday, and that means Morgan/Demens playing competently. Nobody's asking for big plays or anything--that's what Jake Ryan and Frank Clark are for--but not completely whiffing on the edge and being ready to take on blockers without getting engulfed would be nice things. 
• BRING. THE. HEAT. Nobody needs to tell Mattison to be aggressive, but Michigan will need to bring the heat from time to time. Golson isn't actually end-of-2004-Troy-Smith yet, so Michigan can make some hay taking a page from MSU's playbook and bringing pressure through the middle, overwhelming ND's interior line, and allowing the secondary to handle their men in single coverage. Michigan will get beat from time to time, but I don't see any way around it: Michigan needs to force a turnover or two, and I don't see that happening without calling in an air strike or two. It is "unsound", sure, but desperate times and circumstances call for desperate measures. Hey, just remember that we were trying to do this with Greg Robinson not too long ago and you'll feel a bit better. 

Predictions of Negligible Worth 
I, like you, have that faint glimmering hope that Denard will finish his career as ND's ultimate kryponite, and that he has one more soul-crushing, virtuoso performance in store for the Irish. With that said, attempting to accomplish something a third time takes that thing from mere coincidence to trend, and I'm not entirely sure that what we have here is some sort of underlying, fundamental trend. That is, I'm not sure that Michigan can beat Notre Dame, no matter what, just because we have Denard Robinson.

This is essentially a greatly scaled down version of the Alabama game. Notre Dame is not Alabama by any means, but they do have strong defensive talent in the front 7 and they do have a solid offensive line and a deep group of talented tailbacks. They will try to enforce their will on Michigan's decidedly average front, and Michigan has no choice but to hope for mistakes on ND's part from time to time...which, to be fair, ND has been happy to oblige the Wolverines with of late.

I know I said this last year, and I have no idea what ND's final record will be this season, but I think this ND team is better than this Michigan team. The same thing could have been said leading up to the 2009, 2010, and 2011 matchups; of course, that did not stop Michigan from winning each of those games. Michigan has discovered the alchemic route to gold, that being a little bit of luck and a lot of Denard Robinson.

As always, a "prediction" is a defraying of the sum of all predictions. That is, which outcome is the "most likely" to take place? Saying that one thing will happen does not preclude the belief that any other option is also possible.

With that said, I think we are bound for a 3+ hour drive to anticlimax. I don't see Michigan generating enough offense to keep up, and I don't think we are in for Denard Eviscerates Notre Dame Part III. Likewise, I don't see where the playmaking will come from in the Michigan defense (outside of Jake Ryan, that is).

In the end, I think Michigan goes to South Bend and takes a loss in a game that will essentially reflect what probably should have happened last season: Notre Dame accumulates around 500 yards or so and generally controls the game from start to finish. Everett Golson hasn't been around long enough to convince anybody that he is or isn't prone to committing silly turnovers, but it's obvious that he isn't as careless with the ball as Tommy Rees. As such, I don't think that Michigan can expect to be kept in the game with unforced and untimely errors from the ND side. Michigan takes an ugly and only cosmetically close loss in South Bend, a game that will come to be seen as the Godfather III of the Denard vs. Notre Dame saga.

Score: Michigan 17, Notre Dame 27 

Who Are You and Why Do We Care: Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Let's get the video out of the way... 

Is there a rivalry here?

You bet. In 1887, players from Michigan went to Notre Dame to teach the students how to play the game of football. Michigan played against Notre Dame in November of 1887, and won in a blow out. The Wolverines won seven straight games before Notre Dame recorded their first victory in 1909 by the score of 11-3. The series has been incredibly even since then. Since 1909, there have only been two occasions where one of the teams beat the other more than two times in a row. Notre Dame won four games from 1987-1990, and Michigan is currently in a three game win streak. If Michigan wins this year, it will be the first time since the early 1900s that a four game win streak has occurred. Notre Dame ranks in Michigan's top three rivals, along with Michigan State and Ohio State. 

What has happened the last three years?!

2009 was Rich Rodriguez's second season at Michigan. After the incredibly disappointing 2008 season, and one victory against Western Michigan, the Wolverines looked to make a statement against #18 Notre Dame. Michigan scored two touchdowns in the first quarter; one by Brandon Minor and the other on a kick return touchdown by Darryl Stonum (this was also Michigan's last kick return touchdown). Notre Dame responded with touchdowns from Jimmy Clausen to Golden Tate and Michael Floyd. The first half ended Notre Dame 20 - Michigan 17. The only touchdown in the third quarter was from Tate Forcier to Kevin Koger, and a minute into the fourth quarter, Tate ran 31 yards to put the Wolverines up 31-20. Sadly, the eleven point lead would evaporate after another Golden Tate touchdown and an Armando Allen run put the Fighting Irish in the lead with five minutes to go. Forcier was not finished, and with 11 seconds left in the game, he threw a five yard pass to Greg Mathews for the touchdown, and the 38-34 victory. 

In 2010, Michigan traveled to South Bend for the first road game of the season. In Denard Robinson's first road start, the game was all about him. I will not be able to list these stats better than Adam Rittenberg did yesterday on the Big Ten Blog: 

In 2010, he set Michigan, Big Ten and Notre Dame records in rallying the Wolverines to a 28-24 victory in South Bend. Making his first career road start, Robinson shattered his own team total offense mark with 502 yards; set team records for total plays (68) and single-game road rushing (258 yards); recorded the fifth-highest rushing effort in Michigan history; set the Big Ten quarterback rushing record; recorded the longest run in Notre Dame Stadium history (an 87-yard scoring dash in the the second quarter) and the second-longest ever against the Irish (88 yards by Michigan State's Dick Panin in 1951); and set the single-game total offense record by a Notre Dame opponent. 

Other than Denard, the other story of the game was Notre Dame's Quaterback situation.  Dayne Crist started the game, but got injured. He was replaced by Tommy Rees, who immediately threw an interception before being replaced by Nate Montana (as in Joe Montana's son), who threw a pick of his own. Crist came back in for the second half and was a drastic improvement. For the second year in a row, a last minute drive was necessary after Kyle Rudolph rumbled down the field for a 95 yard touchdown that put the Fighting Irish up 24-21. Robinson lead the Wolverines down the field and ran for a 2 yard touchdown with 27 seconds left in the game to seal the game 28-24.

(Beware of Jay-Z in the background)

All of you should know about last season. Notre Dame came to Ann Arbor for the first ever night game at Michigan Stadium. The Under The Lights Game featured interesting "throwback" uniforms, face palm guy, and surprising gameplay. Since you all know what happened, I'll keep the recap short, and you can watch the video. After three quarters of not moving the ball offensively, Michigan was losing 24-7 going into the fourth quarter. That is when the Michigan offense remembered they were allowed to move the ball down the field, and put points on the board. A one yard fumble recovery touchdown by Denard to start the fourth quarter, followed by a Jeremy Gallon touchdown reception put the Wolverines within striking distance. A Robinson interception with a few minutes left made many believe the game was over. Michigan got the ball back and Denard threw a beautiful screen to Vincent Smith who ran for a touchdown with 1:12 left in the game. Of course, the game was not over. Tommy Rees lead the Irish down the field, and threw a pass to Theo Riddick to put Notre Dame in the lead 31-28 with 30 seconds remaining. Jeremy Gallon put on Harry Potter's invisibility cloak to get wide open and get the Wolverines within striking distance. With 9 seconds left, Brady Hoke and Al Borges decided to go for the win not the tie. Denard threw a jump ball to Roy Roundtree in the endzone, who came down with the ball with 2 seconds remaining. Michigan won the game 35-31. 

(Look at these fans, the game is over. They're still here!)

What do they look like?

Notre Dame's official colors are Gold and Navy Blue, although sometimes Green makes an appearance. They have two logos. Their primary logo is composed of a block N and D. Their secondary logo is the fighting Irishman.

Their main home uniforms are blue jerseys with white jerseys worn over gold pants. The away uniforms are white jerseys with blue numbers worn over same gold pants. 

While Navy Blue is their main color, Green is heavily associated with the Irish. They have worn many varieties of green uniforms over the years. This includes last year's green based uniforms worn against Michigan. Full explanation of the green uniforms here. 

The Fighting Irish are nicknamed the Golden Domers for good reason: their gold helmets. While the team has worn multiple alternate uniforms over the years, the one thing that has stayed relatively the same is the gold helmet. Well, until this year. I still have no idea where they came up with this monstrosity: 

Speaking of those terrible helmets, there is a terrible uniform that goes with it (Not these though). The Irish will wear these against Miami (YTM) later this season. 

After last seasons' game featured both Notre Dame and Michigan wearing alternate uniforms (look at all the stripes!!!), this season should be a return to normalcy. 

Do they have good coaches?
In 1918, Knute Rockne was hired as Notre Dame's head football coach. Knute would go on to one of the best coaching tenures in all of college football. From 1918 to 1930, he lead the Irish to a record of 105-12-5 winning three national championships along the way. He has the highest winning percentage of any coach in football history. Sadly, in 1931- at the young age of 43 - Rockne died in a plane crash.

Frank Leahy was hired in 1941, after playing for Rockne at Notre Dame years earlier. He coached Notre Dame for 11 seasons, and attained a record of 87-11-9. This record gives him the second highest winning percentage of all time, behind only Rockne. He lead the Fighting Irish to 39 straight games without a loss and four national championships.

After a 2-7 record in 1963, Ara Parseghian was hired. He attained another incredibly impressive win percentage at .836 with a record of 95-17-4 and captured two national championships.

Lou Holtz became the head coach of the Fighting Irish in 1986. Although his first season finished under .500, he went on to an impressive 100-30-2 record as Notre Dame head coach. Holtz lead the Irish to nine consecutive New Year's Day bowl games, five top ten finishes, and a national championship.

Lou Holtz's resignation in 1996 lead to a string of four different coaches. Bob Davie was at the helm from 1997 to 2001. Davie's Irish didn't make it to a bowl game in either 1999 or 2001, and lost the three bowl games they attended. In 1999, Notre Dame was placed on probation by the NCAA for the first time in team history. In 2001, Davie was fired and replaced by Tyrone Willingham. Willingham was the first black head coach in Notre Dame history. After just three seasons, and a 21-15 record, Willingham was fired.

Following 14 years as an assistant to Bill Belichick for the Giants and Patriots, Charlie Weis was hired to be Notre Dame's head coach. Weis was given five whole seasons to prove that he was worth the $2 Million a year the Irish were paying him. His first two seasons were very successful, with back to back BCS Bowl bids (and losses). In 2007, things took a turn for the worse as the previously 10-3 team went 3-9. That was followed by a 7-6 season and a 6-6 season. Finally, after the 2009 season, he was fired and replaced by Brian Kelly.

Kelly was known as a man who could turn a program around. He started at Division II, Grand Valley State, and turned them into a perennial championship team. He was then offered the head coaching job at Central Michigan University. In three seasons, the Chippewas went from a 4-7 team at the bottom of the MAC to 9-4 MAC champions. Before the bowl game in 2006, Kelly was named Cincinnati's head coach. Under Kelly, the Bearcats never had more than three losses, and in 2009, Cincinnati went 12-0 and earned a birth to the Sugar Bowl to face Florida. The Bearcats got smashed by Urban Meyer's Gators, but that was after Kelly left to be Notre Dame's head coach.

Since Kelly took over at Notre Dame, he lead the Irish to back to back 8-5 seasons. This season they are currently 3-0, so we will see what happens.

Where do they play football?
Notre Dame Stadium is the home of the Fighting Irish football team and Touchdown Jesus. The stadium was built in 1930, and looks incredibly like a miniature Michigan Stadium. The stadium originally held 59,075 people, and now holds 80,795. The first night game in Notre Dame Stadium history was held in 1982, and the first night game with permanent lights was held last season against USC. The most noticeable thing about Notre Dame Stadium is Touchdown Jesus. The mosaic is 134 feet high and 68 feet wide, and shows Jesus with his arms up signifying a touchdown.

Do they have a goofy mascot?
From 1930 to 1963, Notre Dame's mascot was an Irish Terrier. The first terrier was named Brick Top Shuan-Rhu. Later the dogs took the name Clashmore Mike.  Starting in 1965, the Notre Dame Leprechaun became the official mascot of the university. The first man dressed up as a Leprechaun with Clashmore Mike at a game against Oklahoma in 1963.

The university holds tryouts to become The Leprechaun. The potential leprechauns must compete in mental and physical challenges before leading a five minute mock pep rally, answering Notre Dame trivia, dancing an Irish Jig, and doing 50 pushups. They also must have the ability to grow a chinstrap beard and have "a special love for the tradition and spirit of Notre Dame in their hearts."

Prediction Time. Based on everything but football: Michigan 31 - Notre Dame 28. 

Miscellaneous Minutiae, 9/19/2012

Hope For Pahokee Update: Martavious Odoms's "Hope For Pahokee" Kickstarter is getting closer to its goal but isn't quite there yet. So far, 759 backers have donated $30,917 of the $35k goal. If you haven't donated yet, do it! Let's not let this fail because of a short Internet attention span (or any other reason, really). 

Yes, I'm talking about Northwestern again. If you haven't noticed by now, I'm a grad student at the venerable Northwestern University these days, and have thus followed the Wildcats' football program somewhat closely for the last eight or nine months. It has been somewhat of a breath of fresh air from the monumental expectations and resulting disappointment that comes with being a Michigan fan. Obviously, I am a Michigan fan first, and it's not even close, so don't worry (not that you were, person that isn't reading this, probably). Still, there's something inherently good about rooting for a program like Northwestern, one that does things The Right Way (if you are rolling your eyes, that's fine) and makes the most of what it has, usually without the major expectations and glowering spotlights of major college football programs...and I better stop there before I literally transform into one of those NCAA PSAs about athletes going into something other than sports. 

Say what you will about the quality of Northwestern's wins thus far, but 3-0 is 3-0. The strangest thing about is, other than the shootout that was the Syracuse game, the Wildcats have done it largely with defense and a strong running game, powered by Kain Colter, Venric Mark, and Mike Trumpy. Make no mistake about it, Michigan's matchup against the Wildcats will not be an easy one. All my kidding about being warrior poets and whatnot aside, the Wildcats play a decidedly grit-astic brand of football that belies their reputation as a spread team with little defensive speed and/or talent to speak of. 

In any case, here's Lake The Post's take on this season's proceedings: 

Wow. That’s a pretty good feeling to wake up to this morning.  Rewind for a second. If someone had told you that after week three, NU would be 3-0, one of only three teams in the B1G undefeated and, the facilities plan would be announced, you may have pulled out your checkbook.

I will conclude this Northwestern section that is probably annoying you by saying this: I don't think that we, as Michigan fans, say "wow" enough.

Meanwhile, back to the supposed focus of this blog...it's Notre Dame week. It was Notre Dame week even before the UMass game even ended, if we're being honest with ourselves. Brady Hoke said some things about Notre Dame:

 I really don't know how to feel about this game. I'll have a preview up later this week, but, needless to say, this might be the biggest Notre Dame game since the 2006 contest. I know that we've won in South Bend in two of our last three trips down there, but there's still that residual anxiety enduring from our winless streak there stretching from the Remy Hamilton game winner in 1994 up until the "oh wide open" game in 2006. Michigan has won the last three seasons on the back of some pretty serious offensive sorcery the past three years, but I'm getting the feeling that the same cannot happen this time around if Michigan is going to win.

Wondering about whether or not Notre Dame is truly "back" is a useless endeavor better left to people interested in pointless narratives and STORYLINES, but this game will be won--WARNING, ENTIERING CLICHE LAND NOW--in the trenches. For that reason, I have a pretty disagreeable feeling about this game in the pit of my stomach right now, but maybe that will change between now and Saturday.

The future of the rivalry. Speaking of Brady Hoke talking about ND, he weighed in on the future of the rivalry:

Hoke loves playing Notre Dame. But, if for some reason the Fighting Irish aren't on the Wolverines' schedule at some point down the road, Hoke won't exactly be heartbroken.

"They've got to do what they need to do for them," Hoke said Monday. "If (the Michigan-Notre Dame series) continues, it's great.

"If it doesn't, then we'll move forward."

As a person who has accepted Brady Hoke's "no chicken on pizza" as the law of the land since last week's radio show, you may take this with a grain of salt, but...I generally agree. I'm not necessarily one of those people that wants to see ND disappear from the schedule out of some sense of misplaced spite or whatever, but it would be nice to get some other teams on the schedule. I don't think that this is a novel or controversial opinion.

NO RESPECT. Matt Hinton reveals his Week 3 top 25, and it does not include Michigan. If Michigan sports talk radio had a PAWWWLLL equivalent, I would so be calling into it right now. Not really. Of course, Hinton explains his rationale as incisively as you'd expect:

September rankings are always a "Damned If You Do/Damned If You Don't" proposition. By mid-October or so, resumés are fleshed out, and everybody more or less agrees on what they're looking at and how to assess it. But what exactly are you assessing when a significant chunk of the country has yet to play a meaningful game? What is the criteria?

In the past, I've hewn to a strict resumé approach that might, for example, jump Louisiana-Monroe into the top ten for an early upset over a top-ten team, and let the deck sort itself out over the course of the season.

So, that's fair. It feels weird to see teams like Rutgers, Iowa State, and Oregon State in there and not Michigan, but the Wolverines have not had the opportunity to do anything of note outside of the Alabama, a game Michigan was probably not going to win even if it pulled out the greatest game it has ever played.  I would imagine that a win in South Bend would propel the Wolverines into his top 25, if not his top 15.

I'm sure he would agree, but when you really get down to the business of attempting to construct a top 25, you really begin to realize how byzantine and completely arbitrary college football really is. That is part of its charm, I guess, and I wouldn't trade college football for anything in the world. Still, college football comes with the underlying notion that attempting to place teams on a relativistic spectrum of quality is like trying to decide whether Beethoven or The Beatles were more influential than the other. In a few words: it is impossible. As long as you accept that, you'll be doin' just fine.

The Unbearable Lightness of Being Not Russell Wilson. For a team that was a preseason favorite to win the Big Ten, this is not exactly news you want to hear heading into the fourth week of the season with a running game working about as well as the average person does in the morning before having their coffee:

Wondering if Danny O'Brien will be Wisconsin's starting quarterback when the Badgers take the field against UTEP on Saturday the answer is: Maybe.

While offensive coordinator Matt Canada intimated O'Brien would remain the team's starting quarterback, he wouldn't commit to it.

Like everybody, I just sort of assumed that Wisconsin would be able to withstand the exodus of offensive lineman to the NFL and assistant coaches to Pitt, but that has decidedly not been the case thus far. The Badgers take on a 1-2 UTEP team that should result in a fairly stress-free win before a trip to Lincoln the next week, a primetime derby against a Nebraska team looking to avenge last year's thumping in Madison.

This has not been the first time that people have questioned Bret Bielema's ability to be the primary braintrust of the Wisconsin program in spite of his sterling record. After winning 21 games in his first two seasons in Madison (12-1 in 2006, 9-4 in 2007), Bielema led the Badgers to a disappointing 7-6 season in 2008 (of course including what was probably the most embarrassing loss to Michigan that Wisconsin has ever taken), leading to the usual gripes about how his first two seasons were made possible on the backs of Alvarez recruits, yada yada yada.

In any case, this 2012 Wisconsin football team should continue to be an interesting case study in the importance of assistant coaches, those behind-the-scenes shadows that are more important than any of us can really ever know (whether in a good or a bad way). With uncertainty at the quarterback position and a running game that has been almost unnervingly bad, it's not difficult to imagine this season spiraling out of control for the Badgers if Nebraska is able to return the favor in Lincoln.

More? Sit down around the fireplace kids and let's talk to Uncle Barnhart about what we learned this week.

Miscellaneous Minutiae, 8/27/2012

Just wrapping up some loose ends here before the college football season starts...ON THURSDAY. I can hardly believe it either. 

Goodbye, offseason.

Captains. They are, as expected, Denard Robinson and Jordan Kovacs. As Michigan's most prominent senior warrior football poets, you can expect a lot about them in this space throughout the coming months.

Also, this goes without saying but I'll say it anyway: Jordan Kovacs is Rudy...if Rudy was actually good and had an NFL future. Seriously. The guy didn't make the team in 2008 due to a knee injury and then turned around and started in '09. The rest, as they say, is history. Competence is good. /Henne'd

Deciding time. This is just about the time when schools are announcing who their starter at QB will be going into the coming season. Some guys won by default, some after a long and arduous battle throughout the spring, summer, and fall.

The notable winners: Kiehl Frazier (Auburn), Josh Nunes (Stanford), Everret Golson (Notre Dame), David Ash (Texas), and Joe Southwick (Boise State), Marcus Mariota (Oregon). So, there you go. Arm yourselves with this arsenal of useless information (which I guess basically defines sports fandom as a whole, but whatever). Nunes and Southwick have the unenviable task of replacing Andrew Luck and Kellen Moore*, whereas the other three guys are trying to be better (Ash, Frazier) or better than the guy that started last year (Golson).

*Mariota has to replace a productive, successful college QB in Darron Thomas, but, as I mentioned in the Pac 12 preview, he's just the next cog in the Oregon offensive machine. At this point, I'm convinced that Chip Kelly could coach an orange with pencils for appendages to run for 100+ and pass for 250+ against your team.

Speaking of Golson. You've probably heard this already, but ND has suspended tailback Cierre Wood for a minimum of two games...that's not a good thing if your name is Everett Golson. The Irish start the season in Dublin (not the one in Ohio) against Navy. I'm not quite ready to sound the upset alert siren here, but a young QB without his top tailback, no Michael Floyd (plus, Theo Riddick is now a running back), doesn't sound like a promising thing for the ND offense. Whereas Rees managed to move the ball last season only to eventually turn it over, ND might find it difficult to move the ball at all with Golson.

Basically, you can expect approximately 842 passes thrown in Tyler Eifert's direction against Navy.

Meanwhile, in Knoxville. Also on the suspension front, Tennessee had suspended star wideout Da'Rick Rogers (he has since transferred to Tennessee Tech), which significantly puts a dent in my increasingly positive (for some reason) feelings about the Vols' 2012 team. This is a tough blow for Tennessee, especially after getting their other star receiver Justin Hunter back from injury (he missed most of the 2011 season).

From where I stand, Tennessee looks like a team with a solid but not spectacular defense that is moving to the 3-4 and an offense with a gunslinger of a QB and a not very established running game. Unless Bray is ultra-efficient--which is unlikely given that's he's going to be throwing it as if UT  had somehow relocated to the Pacific coast--then seven wins might be as far as UT can go in Dooley's third season. Is that enough? I'm honestly not sure.

Ah, there's the beef. So things had been progressing fairly normally this fall; that is, until some things about the defensive line started to leak out of fall camp. By this I am mostly referring to #76 Quinton Washington, former O-lineman, starting on the DL next to BWC.

If the Black-QW-BWC-Roh lineup is the one that gets rolled out to start, that pretty much confirms the sneaking suspicion that the coaches aren't that comfortable with Black's ability to hold up on the inside, even with the weight he's added (up to 276 from 260, as of this post). Either that, or they're attempting to compensate for Clark's suspension by slotting Black back at his original position (WDE), hopefully precluding the need to play Ojemudia at all against Alabama, which I think would mostly end in disaster. Washington is pretty big, and if there was a game to roll with QW and Campbell in the middle, it's against Alabama. Now, being big doesn't mean that you can hold up (see: "Will Campbell's first three seasons at Michigan"), but the coaching staff is in a bit of a bind. Sadly, these sorts of moves when you're about to face an offensive line like Alabama's is kind of like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.

Also. Devin Gardner: is the transformation to wideout complete? It certainly seems that way based on recent rumblings. Two things:

• Whatever arcane magical rituals you've been performing in order to keep Denard healthy, DOUBLE DOWN on them right now and all the way through early January. No offense to Russell Bellomy, but if he is the QB2 in earnest, then 
• At this point, however, I've come to terms with the fact that wide receiver might end up being Devin Gardner's calling. For whatever reason, his mechanics and overall QB "it having-ness" hasn't progressed as expected, and that's unfortunate but far from presages the end of the world or DG's career. We all know he can be an exceptional talent [insert that camp highlight tape where he does his best Marquise Walker impression here], but it's one thing to be a guy running out there for the occasional snap and being a starting guy. Either way, the coaches have done a great job generally keeping DG's role under wraps..I can guarantee that Saban is thinking about this. 

See, look: interesting football things to talk about. Football must be near. *Checks calendar* WOOOO!

More? Florida's 2012 QB situation is going to mirror 1998/99 Michigan's...if Brady and Henson were both not very good. Check the "ETC" section...Spencer with a zinger regarding UofM research and Greg Robinson. 

Lake The Post agrees with me, putting Michigan at #11 to start.