Who Are You and Why Do We Care: Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Let's get the video out of the way... 

Is there a rivalry here?

You bet. In 1887, players from Michigan went to Notre Dame to teach the students how to play the game of football. Michigan played against Notre Dame in November of 1887, and won in a blow out. The Wolverines won seven straight games before Notre Dame recorded their first victory in 1909 by the score of 11-3. The series has been incredibly even since then. Since 1909, there have only been two occasions where one of the teams beat the other more than two times in a row. Notre Dame won four games from 1987-1990, and Michigan is currently in a three game win streak. If Michigan wins this year, it will be the first time since the early 1900s that a four game win streak has occurred. Notre Dame ranks in Michigan's top three rivals, along with Michigan State and Ohio State. 

What has happened the last three years?!

2009 was Rich Rodriguez's second season at Michigan. After the incredibly disappointing 2008 season, and one victory against Western Michigan, the Wolverines looked to make a statement against #18 Notre Dame. Michigan scored two touchdowns in the first quarter; one by Brandon Minor and the other on a kick return touchdown by Darryl Stonum (this was also Michigan's last kick return touchdown). Notre Dame responded with touchdowns from Jimmy Clausen to Golden Tate and Michael Floyd. The first half ended Notre Dame 20 - Michigan 17. The only touchdown in the third quarter was from Tate Forcier to Kevin Koger, and a minute into the fourth quarter, Tate ran 31 yards to put the Wolverines up 31-20. Sadly, the eleven point lead would evaporate after another Golden Tate touchdown and an Armando Allen run put the Fighting Irish in the lead with five minutes to go. Forcier was not finished, and with 11 seconds left in the game, he threw a five yard pass to Greg Mathews for the touchdown, and the 38-34 victory. 

In 2010, Michigan traveled to South Bend for the first road game of the season. In Denard Robinson's first road start, the game was all about him. I will not be able to list these stats better than Adam Rittenberg did yesterday on the Big Ten Blog: 

In 2010, he set Michigan, Big Ten and Notre Dame records in rallying the Wolverines to a 28-24 victory in South Bend. Making his first career road start, Robinson shattered his own team total offense mark with 502 yards; set team records for total plays (68) and single-game road rushing (258 yards); recorded the fifth-highest rushing effort in Michigan history; set the Big Ten quarterback rushing record; recorded the longest run in Notre Dame Stadium history (an 87-yard scoring dash in the the second quarter) and the second-longest ever against the Irish (88 yards by Michigan State's Dick Panin in 1951); and set the single-game total offense record by a Notre Dame opponent. 

Other than Denard, the other story of the game was Notre Dame's Quaterback situation.  Dayne Crist started the game, but got injured. He was replaced by Tommy Rees, who immediately threw an interception before being replaced by Nate Montana (as in Joe Montana's son), who threw a pick of his own. Crist came back in for the second half and was a drastic improvement. For the second year in a row, a last minute drive was necessary after Kyle Rudolph rumbled down the field for a 95 yard touchdown that put the Fighting Irish up 24-21. Robinson lead the Wolverines down the field and ran for a 2 yard touchdown with 27 seconds left in the game to seal the game 28-24.

(Beware of Jay-Z in the background)

All of you should know about last season. Notre Dame came to Ann Arbor for the first ever night game at Michigan Stadium. The Under The Lights Game featured interesting "throwback" uniforms, face palm guy, and surprising gameplay. Since you all know what happened, I'll keep the recap short, and you can watch the video. After three quarters of not moving the ball offensively, Michigan was losing 24-7 going into the fourth quarter. That is when the Michigan offense remembered they were allowed to move the ball down the field, and put points on the board. A one yard fumble recovery touchdown by Denard to start the fourth quarter, followed by a Jeremy Gallon touchdown reception put the Wolverines within striking distance. A Robinson interception with a few minutes left made many believe the game was over. Michigan got the ball back and Denard threw a beautiful screen to Vincent Smith who ran for a touchdown with 1:12 left in the game. Of course, the game was not over. Tommy Rees lead the Irish down the field, and threw a pass to Theo Riddick to put Notre Dame in the lead 31-28 with 30 seconds remaining. Jeremy Gallon put on Harry Potter's invisibility cloak to get wide open and get the Wolverines within striking distance. With 9 seconds left, Brady Hoke and Al Borges decided to go for the win not the tie. Denard threw a jump ball to Roy Roundtree in the endzone, who came down with the ball with 2 seconds remaining. Michigan won the game 35-31. 

(Look at these fans, the game is over. They're still here!)

What do they look like?

Notre Dame's official colors are Gold and Navy Blue, although sometimes Green makes an appearance. They have two logos. Their primary logo is composed of a block N and D. Their secondary logo is the fighting Irishman.

Their main home uniforms are blue jerseys with white jerseys worn over gold pants. The away uniforms are white jerseys with blue numbers worn over same gold pants. 

While Navy Blue is their main color, Green is heavily associated with the Irish. They have worn many varieties of green uniforms over the years. This includes last year's green based uniforms worn against Michigan. Full explanation of the green uniforms here. 

The Fighting Irish are nicknamed the Golden Domers for good reason: their gold helmets. While the team has worn multiple alternate uniforms over the years, the one thing that has stayed relatively the same is the gold helmet. Well, until this year. I still have no idea where they came up with this monstrosity: 

Speaking of those terrible helmets, there is a terrible uniform that goes with it (Not these though). The Irish will wear these against Miami (YTM) later this season. 

After last seasons' game featured both Notre Dame and Michigan wearing alternate uniforms (look at all the stripes!!!), this season should be a return to normalcy. 

Do they have good coaches?
In 1918, Knute Rockne was hired as Notre Dame's head football coach. Knute would go on to one of the best coaching tenures in all of college football. From 1918 to 1930, he lead the Irish to a record of 105-12-5 winning three national championships along the way. He has the highest winning percentage of any coach in football history. Sadly, in 1931- at the young age of 43 - Rockne died in a plane crash.

Frank Leahy was hired in 1941, after playing for Rockne at Notre Dame years earlier. He coached Notre Dame for 11 seasons, and attained a record of 87-11-9. This record gives him the second highest winning percentage of all time, behind only Rockne. He lead the Fighting Irish to 39 straight games without a loss and four national championships.

After a 2-7 record in 1963, Ara Parseghian was hired. He attained another incredibly impressive win percentage at .836 with a record of 95-17-4 and captured two national championships.

Lou Holtz became the head coach of the Fighting Irish in 1986. Although his first season finished under .500, he went on to an impressive 100-30-2 record as Notre Dame head coach. Holtz lead the Irish to nine consecutive New Year's Day bowl games, five top ten finishes, and a national championship.

Lou Holtz's resignation in 1996 lead to a string of four different coaches. Bob Davie was at the helm from 1997 to 2001. Davie's Irish didn't make it to a bowl game in either 1999 or 2001, and lost the three bowl games they attended. In 1999, Notre Dame was placed on probation by the NCAA for the first time in team history. In 2001, Davie was fired and replaced by Tyrone Willingham. Willingham was the first black head coach in Notre Dame history. After just three seasons, and a 21-15 record, Willingham was fired.

Following 14 years as an assistant to Bill Belichick for the Giants and Patriots, Charlie Weis was hired to be Notre Dame's head coach. Weis was given five whole seasons to prove that he was worth the $2 Million a year the Irish were paying him. His first two seasons were very successful, with back to back BCS Bowl bids (and losses). In 2007, things took a turn for the worse as the previously 10-3 team went 3-9. That was followed by a 7-6 season and a 6-6 season. Finally, after the 2009 season, he was fired and replaced by Brian Kelly.

Kelly was known as a man who could turn a program around. He started at Division II, Grand Valley State, and turned them into a perennial championship team. He was then offered the head coaching job at Central Michigan University. In three seasons, the Chippewas went from a 4-7 team at the bottom of the MAC to 9-4 MAC champions. Before the bowl game in 2006, Kelly was named Cincinnati's head coach. Under Kelly, the Bearcats never had more than three losses, and in 2009, Cincinnati went 12-0 and earned a birth to the Sugar Bowl to face Florida. The Bearcats got smashed by Urban Meyer's Gators, but that was after Kelly left to be Notre Dame's head coach.

Since Kelly took over at Notre Dame, he lead the Irish to back to back 8-5 seasons. This season they are currently 3-0, so we will see what happens.

Where do they play football?
Notre Dame Stadium is the home of the Fighting Irish football team and Touchdown Jesus. The stadium was built in 1930, and looks incredibly like a miniature Michigan Stadium. The stadium originally held 59,075 people, and now holds 80,795. The first night game in Notre Dame Stadium history was held in 1982, and the first night game with permanent lights was held last season against USC. The most noticeable thing about Notre Dame Stadium is Touchdown Jesus. The mosaic is 134 feet high and 68 feet wide, and shows Jesus with his arms up signifying a touchdown.

Do they have a goofy mascot?
From 1930 to 1963, Notre Dame's mascot was an Irish Terrier. The first terrier was named Brick Top Shuan-Rhu. Later the dogs took the name Clashmore Mike.  Starting in 1965, the Notre Dame Leprechaun became the official mascot of the university. The first man dressed up as a Leprechaun with Clashmore Mike at a game against Oklahoma in 1963.

The university holds tryouts to become The Leprechaun. The potential leprechauns must compete in mental and physical challenges before leading a five minute mock pep rally, answering Notre Dame trivia, dancing an Irish Jig, and doing 50 pushups. They also must have the ability to grow a chinstrap beard and have "a special love for the tradition and spirit of Notre Dame in their hearts."

Prediction Time. Based on everything but football: Michigan 31 - Notre Dame 28. 

A Hard Rain's A-Gonna Fall

via The Detroit News

Michigan 34, Western Michigan 10 

"It was kind of wild," Hoke said. "Wet and wild."

As the rain fell and Brady Hoke patrolled the field as if he'd been around for a while already, as if it was undeniably his field and his program and not one that had just been handed to him only 8 months ago, it was hard not to come away with certain vague feelings of goodness, that something that was more good than bad had just transpired, a feeling of warmth that may or may not be ephemeral. The Era of Good Feelings continues. James Monroe's got nothing on Brady Hoke. 

Every bit of criticism and praise should me measured and cut with reason; however, this is college football we're talking about here, and reason is a mirage in a desert of hyperbolic assertions and chaos. Honestly, I'm okay with a little misguided confidence right now. After the last three years (four if you're willing to lump in Lloyd's "relatively" successful valediction), it's just fine to think that maybe things are different now. Maybe our fundamental flaws have improved to the point that we don't have to watch with our hands covering our eyes, peeking between our fingers. Maybe they haven't yet; in fact, they certainly haven't yet, and the coaches will tell you as much. I do know that, after an agonizing first drive on defense, the game was fun to watch. I saw Alex Carder's helmet come off and roll around on the turf, and smiled.

Then again, Western in 2009 and UCONN last season were fun too. Maybe we just played Western Michigan and did what we were supposed to, which we had done already two seasons ago just as impressively. Regardless, what went into the box was uncertainty, and what came out was a little less uncertainty, and even some reasons for optimism, if you're that sort of person. 

The Offense

After an offseason of Al Borges being asked time after time about what he was going to do, to the point that somebody asking him "HEY YOU KNOW YOU HAVE DENARD ROBINSON RIGHT WHY AREN'T YOU USING HIM, MAN?" wouldn't have been ridiculous but a logical, if not entirely derp-filled, jump in the offseason narrative. Of course, Borges made it known that he was planning on using Denard in a way that would take advantage of his talents without revealing his hand too much, but nobody was going to truly believe him until the Wolverines took the field. After the first play, I breathed a sigh of relief (as did many others, I'm sure):

It's like zone left if zone left had a leather interior, seat warmers, and satellite radio. In any case, it was a final, resounding note in the long, frustrating book titled "Is Al Borges An Idiot?" (Foreword by Derp McGee), and in that chapter Al Borges slayed the dragon that is the menace of Denard under center for the rest of time. So, from a philosophical perspective, that's good, and we can stop talking about it. From Coach Hoke himself:

"There's a comfort level you want him to feel good about," Hoke said. "We blocked it well, and I think he got a first down. I think we were in and out of (a spread look) enough."

I'm surprised that Hoke didn't spontaneously combust upon saying the word "spread."

Even considering the missed quarter of Michigan football that we will never get back, Michigan's offensive sample size is small. Only 36 offensive plays makes it difficult to make any sweeping generalizations or extrapolations of what may or may not come to be, especially given the absence of a starter on the offensive line, a fairly vanilla game plan, and the loss of the TOP battle, 25:18 to 18:15. Personally, I'm not a person who gives much attention to TOP; the point of the game of football is to score and score often. Yes, I know, "but the defense"...the defense's job is to get off the field as quickly as possible. While we never ran the offense with nearly the same pace that Oregon does under RR, the pace was quick, and thus the aforementioned became a legitimate concern...now, not so much. I will say that I'd be interested to know how much the time elapsed between snaps differed between Saturday's game and an average RR game. The tradeoff of pace for defensive rest is debatably beneficial but an interesting thing to follow going forward.

From a personnel standpoint, no Barnum (whether to injury or suspension), was a disappointment. I was really looking forward to a starting line of Lewan, Barnum, Molk, Omameh, and Huyge/whoever, but oh well. I'm sure Brian will do the legwork vis a vis Schofield's performance in his offensive UFR later this week, but he seemed to hold his own just fine. Generally, the offensive line looked about as good as you'd expect in this type of game. They were good at the things they were used to doing, less good at the straight up power plays, as expected. It's hard to be unhappy with the running game when Michigan ran for 190 yards on 26 carries in a shortened game and a fourth quarter that was bound to be run-heavy, but the concerns are still there about Michigan's ability to run the power plays that Hoke wants Michigan to run (whether as a part of his philosophical bent or a piece of his grand plan as media puppeteer). Michigan got stuffed more than once, but I guess that's to be expected. Additionally, as Ace noted in his WMU preview, Western did have some serious beef in the middle of their defensive line. As with everything else to be gleaned from this game, it comes with a flashing "this is a work in progress" sign. Michigan's offensive line won't become as big as LSU's or Wisconsin's any time soon, but that's okay for our purposes this season.

The passing game, additionally, merits nothing more than a grade of "incomplete," which, given the result of the game, is fairly apropos. With Denard only attempting 13 passes, we don't have much at all to work with. While it was said that Gallon had passed Odoms on the depth chart, I was skeptical the entire time. I remember reading that the other day and thinking that that wouldn't last, and that it was probably due to Odoms's cast limiting his ability to catch and/or get reps in practice. Is Gallon going to be a permanent fixture going forward? We shall see, but I will say that while I like what Gallon brings to the table (his KO return issues notwithstanding), it would be a shame to see Odoms waste away as a reserve this year after what he's endured the past three years in the form of injuries and the debilitating pall of failure he's had to stoically suffer. I'm sure that Odoms had no such expectations that all of this would fall down upon his head when he decided to come to Michigan all the way from Florida, but I hope that he can make the most of his final year at Michigan.

Otherwise, nobody really had an opportunity to impress. Koger made a nice grab on a ball that Denard forced him to take a hit for, yet another reminder that Koger is the tight end version of Braylon Edwards (which, if it must be spelled out...tough catches=easy, easy catches=tough). Hemingway had the longest play of the day with a 37-yard shot downfield, his only reception of the day. I honestly didn't remember seeing him out there before that point, although I did notice his existence after rewatching the game. I'm not sure if there's anything meaningful to be inferred from this. I picked him to have a pretty big season, so hopefully this is just the result of the rain and a conservative gameplan.

As for the tailbacks, they did well with the carries they were given. Sample size caveat goes here, but the cynic in all of us is applauding the fact that Toussaint and Shaw made it through an entire game three quarters without sustaining an injury. Shaw ran through gaping holes like he's done before, displaying the elite speed we all know he has. Toussaint's performance was a confirmation of his potential, going for 80 yards on 11 carries, with this beauty the highlight of his day:

Shaw capped the drive two plays later with a gallop of his own for a touchdown. Take the aforementioned two runs out and their YPC don't look nearly as good, but the run game passed the eyeball test well enough. It's Western, and even if the holes were big enough for Will Campbell to run through, plays were made and Denard's legs were saved for a later day when they'd be needed. For our current purposes, that's a win.

The Defense 


As a prefatory note, I think that people are right to be excited about what they saw. Michigan started to look better as the game progressed. Guys were looking confused in the first quarter (which I at first thought was just standard defensive tactics i.e., confuse the offense with random spastic movement), but was borne out to be untrue when an out of place Carvin Johnson ran all the way across the field when he realized Courtney Avery was on an island on the other side...an island occupied by two receivers. If there was ever an okay time to make those mistakes, though, it was this past Saturday.

When people said that Greg Mattison would rotate guys in and out liberally, I don't think anybody envisioned the type of participation we saw on Saturday. Guys like Beyer, Ryan, Herron, Brink, Black, Ryan, and yes, Will Campell, all saw significant time in addition to the usual cast of characters (Martin, RVB, Roh, and I guess Heininger). Mike Martin showcased his power and agility on the first play of the game, getting to Carder on a bubble screen after tossing a blocker aside like a rag doll. Other than the fumble recovery, I didn't notice Van Bergen too much (he notched 1 solo tackle, 3 total), which is worrisome but not as worrisome as Craig Roh's complete and total absence. Carder was doing a good job of getting the ball out of his hands fairly quickly (at least early on before Kovacs knocked him into next week), which inevitably mitigates any pass rushing threat. However, like Hemingway, I didn't even really notice him around many plays, and at one point wondered if he was even playing at all. This is something to monitor, but I'm not worried...yet.

The linebackers looked alright, and certainly better than in the recent past. Demens was Demens...he wasn't perfect (he did allow the fullback to lock onto him on the second play of Western's second drive, which lead to a long gain by Drake), but he inspired more confidence than Ezeh ever did. I wish Ezeh well in life, and I'm not one to denigrate Michigan players or coaches who have already left the program, but Demens is clearly an upgrade and our best backer by far. As for the others, there's that Brandon Herron guy. Both of Herron's big plays were class right place at the right time moments, and I don't say that to belittle his accomplishments. In recent years, nobody would have been there to make that play, so Herron's talent level and/or his talent level's responsibility for making the play happen is not at issue here. A play is a play is a play. Simply making them is an improvement, and it's not to see a guy like Herron--who has bounced around all three linebacker positions in a by and large anonymous career--do some things out there. Herron looked lost in coverage more than once, as Carder zipped passed past him as he was still dropping into his zone. MGoBlog user Magnus brings up the valid point that Herron's technique may actually have been taught; that is, he is being instructed to run directly to his spot and only then turn around as opposed to dropping with his head on a swivel. The rationale is that the former gets you to the spot faster, which makes sense; even if you have your head turned and have the quarterback in sight, you can't make the play if you're not there yet. Of course, not everybody teaches it the same way. Maybe somebody who is more familiar with Mattison's coaching can answer this question of whether Herron was just doing what he's been coached to do or not. It would certainly make me feel a lot better to know that Herron wasn't just running around like a chicken with its head cut off as appeared to be the case watching it live.

In the secondary, Avery looked a little vulnerable, unfortunately. As much as this comparison might upset people, Woolfolk reminds me of Morgan Trent: they're both undeniably fast running in a straight line but may not be naturals at the position, and they can also lay the wood from time to time. Hopefully his ankle injury will be cleared up after a week of treatment, because 2010 is evidence enough that he is an irreplaceable piece of this secondary. JT Floyd seemed to do a little better than Avery, but only negligibly so (I still think Avery has more upside). The performance of the safeties was possibly the most encouraging part of the defense. Kovacs had one of his best, if not his best, games as a Wolverine, with some well-timed blitzes leading to Carder's helmet being dislodged, as well as a pass breakup. Thomas Gordon also had a solid effort, coming in with 8 total tackles (1 TFL). I've been a huge proponent of Carvin Johnson's game since the day he committed, but it looks like he was passed up by TG for good reason. The smaller Gordon looked fast and seems like a solid hitter, which we already knew from his brief action last season. Other than Jake Ryan, TG is probably the underclassman I'm most looking forward to watching this season.

Special Teams


This was probably the only facet of Saturday's game in which Michigan was severely deficient. Kickoff coverage was downright bad. With the defense still a work in progress, Michigan cannot afford to let teams start on their own 35 or better. You'd think it would have been better given the symbolic and practical emphasis on special teams (with defensive starters like Woolfolk, Avery, and others participating), but who knows. For the record, I get what Hoke's trying to do by playing those guys on ST, but it still makes me uncomfortable. But, that's why he gets paid the big money and I don't.

Michigan was just about average on returns, with Grady averaging 19.0 per KO return. Wile looked good filling in for Hagerup, booting one for 47 yards. Gibbons had the missed extra point, which is bad. I would have liked to see him get a chance to at least try a field goal so that his first one doesn't have to come in a potentially pressure-packed environment next week against Notre Dame, but oh well. Let's hope it doesn't come down to that. Goodness gracious please don't let it come down to that.

Miscellaneous Minutiae

• Be excited about the defense's potential, but remember that Michigan's defense was just as effective against the Broncos out in 2009 (no defensive scores then, though, so there's that). Again, sample size. 
• As much as I want to see Denard smiling on national television at the Downtown Athletic Club in NYC, I'd rather see him remain in one piece come bowl season. We'll certainly have to lean on him more as the season progresses, but I really hope that the line and tailbacks continue to progress. I can live with Denard's 8 carries in this one. In an average game, 12-15 designed runs is ideal in my humble opinion. 
• How good does Brady Hoke look compared to Brian Kelly after this weekend? Wow. With the omnipresence of ND football, it's hard to see potential ND recruits not being turned off by this type of behavior. Even at RR's most rage-filled moments, he never got nearly that bad. 
• At one point in the broadcast they mentioned Gorgeous Al professing to being "out of his comfort" zone for the first time (re: Denard), noting that he recognizes Denard's considerable talents and is excited by the different things Borges will be able to do that he hasn't done before. File this in the now considerably hefty "Borges Knows What He's Doing, Y'all" folder. 
• Jake Ryan! I figured him to be Cam Gordon's backup, but he came in with a hand in the dirt artificial turf. To be honest, he looked like a natural there. Not only does he look bigger than he did in the spring when he made an impressive showing in the spring game (albeit not against the 1's), he looks quick and agile for a guy his size. His ability to get to Carder was one of the most pleasant surprises of the game. 
• I wonder if that short yardage look Michigan came out in (with the tailback lined up as a fullback on that 4th&1 on the first drive) is a permanent thing and if it says anything about the fullback situation (i.e., McColgan). 
• Craig James...still terrible. 
• Crowd noise sounded pretty solid (although it's admittedly hard to tell on TV half the time, especially with how shoddy Saturday's broadcast was), and hopefully the Big House crowd can bring that same rain-soaked tenacity into the stadium next Saturday night...yes, night. It's still weird to think about. I'll be in attendance and I couldn't be more excited to be a part of that environment. 
• No Hopkins is a bummer. I really hope he can get out of the doghouse, because Shaw and Toussaint as a one-two, Smith as a change-up/pass catcher third down back type and Hopkins as a short yardage bruiser is one well-rounded groups of backs. 
• As frustrating as it is, the decision to end the game was the right one, from a safety perspective as well as Alex Carder's (then again, those two probably overlap). This is only underscored by what happened  in Morgantown yesterday, where lightning struck the stadium, and at Notre Dame on Saturday where it was seen striking in close proximity to the stadium. Safety first then teamwork. 
• Will Campbell dropping in coverage...oddly majestic. The elusive fat guy touchdown from BWC would make me so unbelievably happy. Please make this happen Greg Mattison. 
• Dear Mother Nature...chill out. 

Things That May or May Not Happen: Season Predictions

via Maize and Blue Nation

It's game week at last, and so it might as well be time to start locking in some ultimately meaningless predictions. These types are things are just about as pointless as preseason polls, but The permutations are endless, and settling on one prediction is like filling out a single bracket come March Madness. As somebody who usually fills out a few each March, you can conceivably fill out one hundred of those things and still feel good about each and every one of them. This year is another high-variance year; Michigan could come out and look legitimately better as a result of better defensive coaching and another year of experience for a host of underclassmen. However, even if Michigan's improvement is fairly obvious (particularly on the defensive side of the ball), I'm not quite sure that Michigan's record will improve from last year's 7-5 regular season mark.

In short, this is more for my purposes than any black and white determinant of what will/should happen. It's always nice to see where we end up compared with where we thought we'd end up at the beginning. As always, people should keep in mind that Michigan could go 7-5 again while still looking like a much better team. At the same time, it's entirely possible that the Michigan team of the first half of the season and the team of the second half. With that in mind, I'll look at each game and give my thoughts, some general conference predictions, as well as a few others.

Western Michigan: This will be a strange game for me, as it will be the first home game that I won't be in attendance for in a long time (graduating...don't do it). In any case, while hubris does not befit the Michigan Man of late, I think this game should be a slam dunk victory for the Wolverines. WMU is 0-5 against the Wolverines all-time, and I don't think that winless record changes this season. The Broncos return Junior QB Alex Carder, who had a pretty solid year last in 2010 by the numbers: 3,334 yards passing, 30 TD's to 12 INT's, and a 63.1% completion percentage. Carder also proved to be somewhat mobile (relatively), rushing for a little over 400 yards last season.

WMU also returns their top receiver Jordan White, who was granted a 6th year. Honestly, he is probably the only weapon that should register any sort of concern with the defensive staff. His stat line is impressive: he hauled in 10 TD's in 2010 on 94 receptions and 1,378 yards. White isn't a big guy (6'0'' 215), but he seems to produce just fine. WMU does lose their other prolific receiver from last season, Juan Nunez, so it will likely be much easier for teams to focus on White. Other than that, WMU will field a few average backs, in addition to having to replace three of last year's lineman. All the pressure will be on Carder and White.

I don't know if Michigan shuts WMU out, but the result will be very much like the one we saw in 2009...Carder will be running for his life most of the time, and Michigan likely won't show too much on offense with ND coming to town the next week. However, they'll squeeze enough out of the spread remnants of the gameplan, and Denard will have at least one big play (i.e., long touchdown run) on the ground (probably more). Michigan wins 34-7.

Notre Dame: This one, on the other hand, I will be flying in for. Needless to say, the atmosphere will be bizarrely raucous; I can definitely see myself looking around at several points to ask myself if I'm actually in the Big House.

For many years, this game has been a sort of litmus test for the Wolverines. This game is certainly important, but the fact is, ND is one year ahead of us in their program's rebuilding plan under Kelly, and to measure ourselves against them within the context of even this season alone is a little unfair and kind of pointless. Michigan could very easily lose this game and still go on to do good things. Of course, losing this one doesn't affect the Legends standings, so there's that to remember. As a general aside, if somebody asked me "you can only beat two rivals and you have to lose to one, which is the one?", I'd pick ND without hesitation.

Going back to last season, we all remember the sentiment, coming from Michigan and ND fans alike, that we wouldn't have won if Crist had not been forced out for much of the game (hearkening back to the '04 MSU game, in which Drew Stanton was destroyed by one LaMarr Woodley). Crist is once again the starter after an extended battle with the less touted Tommy Rees. After the Michigan game, though, Crist was having a decent season, until he was eventually knocked out with an injury early on in the Tulsa game. Rees then took over and led the Irish to four straight wins (Utah, Army, USC, and Miami), but people quickly forget that the Notre Dame defense improved upon its performance significantly in that span. Rees is a ice backup but Crist is definitely better.

Notre Dame finally loses Armando Allen and the consistently underwhelming Robert Hughes, bringing back formerly highly-touted Cierre Wood and Jonas Gray. However, ND returns 9 of their top 10 OL, which may or may not mitigate the lack of quality (or proven quality) among the RB corps. Of course, ND returns future first rounder Michael Floyd, Theo "Chronicles of" Riddick Jr., and TJ Jones (whom you may remember for this little moment).

Defensively, ND will be stout. Everybody knows about Manti Te'o, and Senior safety Harrison Smith is a guy who has been around and produced (93 tackles last season). The rest of ND's front 7 will be strong, and that's without even mentioning the potential impact of true freshman Aaron Lynch.

This one is really tough to predict, but I'll just go ahead and say it: Michigan probably won't win this game. It will be close, but Michigan got a performance for the ages from Denard and still only barely won. Sure, the game is at home and the atmosphere should be pretty electric, but that only goes so far. ND's offense doesn't scare me too much (I'm sure Cam Gordon is happy that Kyle Rudolph is gone). Crist is a good quarterback and he can occasionally beat you with his legs, and the OL figures to be pretty good. The tailbacks don't seem to have a star as of now, but you never know with that position. It's not like mediocre ND running backs haven't had success against us before.

I think Michigan will still be trying to work out the new offense, and Michigan likely won't be able to take advantage of ND's weakest defensive position group (i.e., the secondary). The defense will still not be good enough to hold ND's offense down. It will be close, and it certainly wouldn't surprise me to see Michigan win. How much spread stuff Borges deigns to run will also be a pretty big factor here (i.e., more is better at this point in the season). Michigan loses 28-20.

Eastern Michigan: No point in wasting too much time on this one. Michigan will win, and win big. Mike Hart in the Big House again will make for some solid game week fluff. Michigan wins by a lot, does it really matter the score? Okay, how about 45-10.

San Diego State: This one, on the other hand, is not getting enough consideration. Although Hoke and Borges are gone, SDSU should still be a dangerous team. If you read my run down of the 2010 TCU game, you'd know that the Aztecs have a pretty talented offensive unit. Unfortunately for the Aztecs, they will be without their top 4 receivers from last season, losing Vincent Brown and DeMarco Sampson to the NFL and Dominique Sandifer and Jay Waddell to injuries. As such, the offense has essentially been declawed, but they still return QB Ryan Lindley, RB Ronnie Hillman (who rushed for 1532 yards and 17 TD's last season), and TE Gavin Escobar. Defensively, SDSU returns 5 starters, but the defense will consist of mostly juniors and sophomores.

Michigan will win this game, but not before SDSU gives the Wolverines a bit of a scare in the first half and into the third quarter. Michigan wins 38-24.

Minnesota: The Gophers are just a bad team and they will probably suffer as a result of the Tim Brewster era for a couple years more. Jerry Kill figures to bring Minnesota back to their ground and pound days under Glen Mason, but the fact is the scheme doesn't really matter because the talent isn't there. Minnesota loses long time starter Adam Weber, who seemed to put up the numbers in a pass-heavy offense but really was fairly terrible. MarQueis Gray is a guy who was somewhat touted and brings some mobility to the QB position. Unfortunately for Coach Kill, Minnesota's leading rusher DeLeon Eskridge left the program  this offseason, making things that much tougher.

The defense returns 8, but they gave up 33.0 ppg last season. Minnesota is not good (how they managed to pick off Illinois and Iowa at the end of last season is a mystery). Gray might be able to run around for some yards but Michigan should be able to gash this defense on the ground and through the air with ease...Michigan wins 35-13.

Northwestern: This is another tough one to judge, but it's certainly winnable. If Michigan has developed enough momentum at this point, they should even be favored despite the Dan Persa hype train. I'm pretty sure the same things could be said about the Wildcats that have been sad about them for the past several years; for Northwestern, that's not at all a bad thing, because it means consistency. Northwestern returns 16 starters (9 on offense), including, of course, Persa and leading receiver Jeremy Ebert. Northwestern's OL also figures to field its best starting five in recent years. Like Michigan, Northwestern leaned on their quarterback on the run game, and it will be important for the Wildcats to find a reliable tailback to carry the ball if they don't want Persa to get injured halfway through the season. However, it looks like that decision might've been made for the NU offensive staff, as an Achilles injury that Persa is still rehabbing will likely force him to remain in the pocket.

Defensively, Northwestern returns 7, but this is not a unit to worry about. They only notched 17 sacks in 2010 (one less than Michigan did) and 29.0 ppg. Vincet Browne--who was 2nd Team All-Big Ten last
year--led the Wildcats with 7.0 sacks, making him probably their only standout.

Northwestern...they are what they are. Some people look at the numbers and call them one of the "luckiest" teams in the NCAA. While that may or may not be true, Fitzgerald has done the most with the minimal talent that he has, and a talented senior quarterback in Persa will be a tough assignment for the Michigan defense. This is the first road game for Michigan, but anybody that has been to a Michigan game at Ryan Field will tell you that there will assuredly be more Michigan fans than Northwestern fans present. By  this point in the season, I think the Wolverines will have started to improve on both sides of the ball, winning this one 31-28, and putting Michigan to a solid start of 4-1.

Michigan State: Okay, so for the first time in a while the Spartans truly have the attention of the Michigan fanbase. Michigan State had a very good season last year, but getting thumped by Alabama and Iowa, while also missing Ohio State, makes it a little less impressive than it seems on paper. With that said, I think MSU comes down a step this year.

Defensively, MSU should field a pretty strong DL, headlined by future first rounder Jerel Worthy and his tattoo. However, the Spartans will need for former Michigan target William Gholston to improve, as Tyler Hoover only registered 3 sacks at the other end position. At linebacker, they will be without the services of Greg Jones and Eric Gordon, only returning SLB Chris Norman. This position group figures to take a step down this season, although how much of a drop it ends up being depends on how former 4-star MLB Max Bullough performs.

Offensively, MSU looks like a team that can win the division and even the conference except for one, tiny issue: the offensive line. The Spartans only return 2 starters, and the departures included LT DJ Young (who was 2nd Team All-Big Ten) and RT J'Michael Deane. The Only Colors runs through the list of candidates to replace Young, one of which is a converted defensive lineman. Nobody will confuse Michigan's defense with Nick Saban's group of 11 Terminators, but this OL is something I'd be worried about if I was a Spartan fan. Otherwise, the skill positions look very good, with Cousins, Cunningham, Martin, Baker, and Bell coming back. Thus, everything hinges on the performance of the line. MSU's skill position guys won't do them much good if their lineman can't block anybody (see 2011 Capital One Bowl).

This game is enormous for Brady Hoke and for Michigan as a program. As much hype as the ND game is getting (and rightfully so), Michigan needs to win this one more. I think Hoke et al will have the team focused and prepared for this game, and the Wolverines will escape EL with a victory, finally flinging the monkey that is MSU's three game streak into the Detroit River. Michigan wins in 2007 fashion...Denard leads a late 4th quarter touchdown drive and Michigan wins 24-21.

Purdue: It's pretty sad that I'm giving this game, a conference game, about as much thought as the EMU game, but...Purdue is bad at football, and Michigan will win easily. The only concern here is a "hangover" after an emotional game in EL, but Michigan is much better on offense than Purdue is on defense (no Ryan Kerrigan is a plus), and Purdue's offense is just laughably incompetent, even more so now with Purdue's annual ACL explosion bonanza victimizing QB Rob Henry. I could see this being like the 2007 Minnesota game for a little while (come out slow, eventually wake up and turn it into a blowout), but ultimately Michigan should get to play a lot of second teamers by the 4th quarter. Michigan wins 38-10. 


Iowa: Michigan is, at this point, sitting at 7-1. Even I will admit that this might be a little optimistic, even considering that the next few games, as I will explain shortly, should go a little differently. However, Michigan's schedule really isn't that tough this year, so a 7-1 start is not out of the question. Beating State in EL is probably the only thing that's somewhat of a reach, and I feel pretty strongly that we'll get that done.

Beginning with the trip to Iowa City, the schedule gets much tougher, and I think Michigan will struggle. I don't necessarily think Iowa will be anything out of the ordinary this year, but I just have a bad feeling about this one. Iowa only returns 9 starters total, the fewest in the conference, and they will have to replace American hero Ricky Stanzi with junior James Vandenberg. I don't really have any concrete analysis for this one; Michigan will drop a road game (if not 2 road games), and I think this is one of them. Iowa seems to do well when expectations are low, and after losing their 5 games last year by 7, 1, 4, 3, and 3 points respectively, I think chances are they turn it around this year even if the team isn't necessarily better than last year. Iowa has never beaten Michigan three times in a row, but I think that trend is finally broken this year...Michigan drops a frustrating one, 28-17.

Illinois: As horrible of a coach as Ron Zook is, this is another dangerous road game for Michigan. As entertaining as last year's game was, I think we will not see nearly the same offensive production in this game. Illinois returns 6 starters on defense, losing Corey Liuget and Clay nurse on the line. The Illini should still have some experience here, but one would think it's going to be nearly impossible to replace Liuget this season. Ilinois gave up 23 ppg last year (good for 48th in the country), surprisingly good for a team you'd figure to be much worse. However, the Illini will almost certainly give up a few more points this year; Illinois will not be able to replace the production of Liuget and MLB Martez Wilson (and Nurse, to a much lesser extent).

The offensive side of the ball is where the Illini worry me. Despite being very much of a project passing the ball, Nathan Scheelhaase developed into a dangerous dual threat QB as a freshman last season, and he figures to only get better. The Illini lose Mikel Leshoure, an admittedly pretty huge loss, but Jason Ford should do alright as the top guy (he ran for 480 yards last season at rate of 4.8 yards per carry), and Scheelhaase will carry the ball a lot anyway (868 yards and 5 TD's last season). AJ Jenkins is also back catching passes for the Illini after a pretty good 2010 (56 receptions, 746 yards, and 7 TD's).

Like the Iowa game, I could easily see Michigan winning it, but I just think that Michigan will have trouble containing Scheelhaase. Michigan wins in a number of alternate universes and/or pick sets, but in this one, they lose 21-38, dropping the Wolverines to 7-3.

Nebraska: This is the first game where I feel the Wolverines are probably outmatched. Nebraska showed signs of weakness near the end of last season, when they lost 3 of their last 4 to Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and Washington (in addition to an inexplicably bad loss to Texas in October). Much of this can be pinned on the health of Taylor Martinez, who was pretty much lightning in a bottle until the Texas game. While Nebraska fans have much of the same concerns about Martinez that Michigan fans do about Denard, the Nebraska offense should be better if Martinez can simply stay healthy. Star tailback Roy Helu is now in Mike Shanahan's offense in Washington, but Rex Burkhead almost ran for a 1,000 yards as his backup last year, averaging 5.5 yards per carry. None of Nebraska's receivers really put up big numbers, but Brandon Kinnie and tight end Kyler Reed are the best returning targets, putting up 5 and 8 TD's respectively last year. Martinez will improve as a passer, but it's unclear by how much, especially if he's forced to continue to carry the ball so many times. Sound familiar?

On the other hand, the defense is Nebraska's bread and butter. Nebraska returns 7 starters from a unit that gave up 17.4 ppg last year. They return three pre-season all-conference types--one in each position group--in DT Jared Crick, MLB Lavonte David, and CB Alfonzo Dennard. This team is talented and well-coached, and although their number went down from '09 to '10 after Suh's departure, they are still a very good defense and certainly one of the best in the conference, if not the best.

Michigan will have a hard time containing Martinez (much like Scheelhaase), and the Huskers will score enough points to come out of Ann Arbor with a relatively comfortable victory. Michigan loses 31-17.

Ohio State: As important as the MSU game is, this one is about a million times more important. According to what I have so far, Michigan will be 7-4 coming into The Game. OSU likely won't be as good as they have been, and they could come into this meeting with 3 losses. Like Michigan, OSU is very much a high-variance team as far as what their best case and worst case scenarios look like this year (of course, OSU's "best case" is much better than Michigan's).

A lot rides on the quarterback situation (understatement of the century), a situation which is still not settled but has been whittled down to two candidates in freshman Braxton Miller and Joe "Methusela" Bauserman. I previewed the Buckeye quarterbacks earlier this summer, so my thoughts are already out there. I think Bauserman takes the first snap, but Miller will eventually take over, much like in 2008 when Pryor eventually took over after Todd Boeckmann started the season as the starter after taking the Buckeyes to the BCS title game in 2007. In the wide receiver corps, the Buckeyes have a lot of talent in guys like Verlon Reed, Philly Brown, etc. but not many of them are proven. DeVier Posey is the top target, and he will of course be available for the Buckeyes in the Michigan game after he starts the season serving out a 5-game suspension. Jake Stoneburner is a pretty decent talent at tight end but when was the last time the Buckeyes really utilized the tight end position? I'm not sure that this is the year. In the same vein, the Buckeyes will have Dan Herron back for this one, and after him the Buckeyes boast a stable of talented backs that can fill in here and there in a pinch.

Defensively, the Buckeyes only return 4 starters; however, this will be another good defense for OSU, and it will have to be because Fickell and Co. will depend lean on it. OSU loses a number of big names (Rolle, Homan, Hines, Chekwa, and Heyward), but they will reload. Will the defense be as good as last year? I'm not sure, but they will still be pretty good, and definitely top 2 in the conference. Nathan Williams and John Simon on the ends should make for a formidable pash rush, and Garrett Goebel and former kind of Michigan target Jonathan Hankins should be at least okay (with Hankins seeming to get some hype in Buckeye circles this offseason). The Buckeyes replace the linebackers with Andrew Sweat, Etienne Sabino, and Storm Klein. There is a lot of talent there, and Buckeye fans seem to be pretty excited about all three, particularly the potential of Sabino and Klein. Sweat seems like a guy who will be your standard, dependable tackle machine; however, I'm not sure that the other two positions are as sure of a thing as many Buckeye fans seem to think. Sabino and Klein were both 4-star recruits, yet they haven't done much of anything thus far in their careers. Sabino even took last year off, taking a redshirt because he saw a stacked depth chart and a chance to start in 2011 while not wasting a year of eligibility. The Buckeyes are talented in the secondary as well, but losing Chekwa, Hines, and Torrence will hurt. One figures that any growing pains should be mostly behind this unit by the time The Game rolls around, but you never know.

I had a tough time picking Michigan to beat State on the road, but this one will be an even tougher pick to make (not that there's really anything at stake here other than the risk of being wrong)...there's no doubt that the difference in talent between the two programs is not insignificant. Michigan will narrow the gap in the coming years, but just look at Ohio State's talent and depth and you can see why they've been the powerhouse that they've been for most of the last decade. At the same time, much of OSU's talent is unproven and inexperienced, and that is not even mentioning the fact that Luke Fickell will be roaming the sidelines and not Jim Tressel. Luke Fickell is not Jim Tressel. Say that out loud, it feels pretty good.

By the time this game rolls around, Michigan will have been hardened by the Big Ten schedule and some tough losses (which can be piled unceremoniously on top of the experiences of the last few seasons and the general scrapheap of futility and ruined Saturdays). The new starters will have a season of experience under their belts, and with guys with good football minds like Mattison and Borges instructing them on a weekly basis, it's difficult not to envision a team that is much better, tactically and fundamentally, on November 26th than it was on September 3rd.

As talented as OSU is, Michigan fields a wealth of talent of its own. A strong offensive line and group of receivers, as well as a talented group of tailbacks of which hopefully one will emerge as "the guy" (Toussaint?), will form an above average group by the end of the season, even with the subtle shift in offensive philosophy. Oh, and there's Denard too. If Al Borges was able to turn Jason Campbell into a first round pick, I think he can do some things with Denard Robinson.

The defense is of course another story, but there are a few things that encourage me: 1) A year of Greg Mattison's coaching 2) another season of experience for guys like Cam (and Thomas) Gordon, Courtney Avery, Kenny Demens, etc. 3) a Buckeye offense which will have serious issues at the quarterback and wide receiver positions 4) Hoke's/Michigan's desire to win this game. Yes, I realize the last point is completely intangible and doesn't really win games (execution does), but it's there and you can't deny it. Seven in a row? Has it really been that long? You know that the preparation for this will be thorough and intense, and the desire to win among the seniors will be at an all-time high. For three hours, Troy Woolfolk will think he's Marlin Jackson, Kenny Demens will think he's David Harris, Junior Hemingway will think he's Braylon Edwards.

More on this later, but for now I will say that Michigan will beat Ohio State. I won't even give you a score because it doesn't even matter. Michigan will win. It won't quite be 1969 in its significance, but it will be the biggest win since the 2003 contest, and the argument for it being the most important win since the 1998 Rose Bowl victory is a cogent one.

That means that Michigan finishes 8-4, which is good for the Outback Bowl or something. Honestly, I went into this thinking possibly 7-5 (which I could still easily see happening if you flip either of the Northwestern or MSU predictions), but it was so very hard for me to predict that Michigan would get off to a start similar to the ones they had in 2009 and 2010 only to fall flat on their faces come conference play. 8-4 is my prediction, though, and I'm sticking to it (and if it comes to fruition, with wins against MSU and OSU...Brady Hoke for President?).

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Bonus Predictions:

• Denard carries the ball no more than 180 times, and definitely no more than 200 (down from last year's 256).
• Shaw runs for 800 yards, Toussaint for 600, and Smith for 400. Denard for 1,100 yards. 
• Hemingway steps it up in a big way, picking up the slack in Stonum's absence: 60-70ish rec., 950 yards, and 7 touchdowns. 
• Kenny Demens leads the team in tackles. 
• The defense will improve to top 70 in total defense, while also shaving a few points off of their mark of 35.2 ppg in 2010...31.0 ppg sounds like reasonable shot in the dark (Minnesota gave up 33 ppg and Northwestern gave up 29.0 ppg last year). 
• Devin Gardner will be a significant factor in at least one win this season. 
• Leaders division champion: Wisconsin, Legends: Nebraska--Big Ten Champion: Wisconsin
• Other conference champions--ACC: Florida State, Big East: West Virginia, PAC 12: Oregon, SEC: Alabama, Big 12: Oklahoma
• BCS Title Game: Oklahoma vs. Alabama--Alabama wins second title in 3 years

via Mike DeSimone

The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly, 8/9

The Good: Ondre Pipkins, ManBearPig 4* DT, joins the already distinguished 2012 class. Pipkins is commitment #22 for the Wolverines, and fills a position of dire need. After Will Campbell--far from a proven commodity even as a junior--there's not a whole lot. Granted, position switches will happen, and we'll see a few guys move inside as they put on weight. In any case, this is just another example of Hoke's unbelievable recruiting thus far. Beating out Alabama, Florida, OSU, etc. for a recruit is always cause for celebration.

The Bad: Coach Hoke has finally meted out the long-expected punishment in the Darryl Stonum ND-UofM Discipline Litmus Test of 2011: essentially, Hoke has put Stonum on timeout for the 2011 season. Stonum will sit in the corner this season to think about what he's done and, ostensibly, will be back next season. Insert minor grumblings along the lines of "if he was a third-string tight end he would've been gone faster than you can say POWER PLAY" but this is the way things are. Regardless, this is a point for Hoke vis a vis Brian Kelly.

In more bad news, P Will Hagerup (who missed last season's OSU game) will also miss the first four games of 2011. This is a huge blow, as it not only puts Hagerup on even thinner ice (re: his career at Michigan) but it really puts the pressure on his replacement, freshman PK Matt Wile. Hagerup was about as highly-touted as a punter can be coming out of high school, and he performed admirably in 2010. This hopefully won't matter against Western and Eastern, but will certainly be a factor against the Irish, and could even contribute to an upset bid by the Aztecs if we aren't careful. The best way to let an inferior team in a game is to give them field position, and if Wile isn't the answer then we are in trouble.

In slightly less bad news, diminutive slot ninja Terrence Robinson will also miss the opener. While we were all enamored with the"dream shake" from his high school highlight reel, he's a guy that has two career catches, and couldn't even see the field in RR's spread. Michigan will be fine in the wideout department this season, even without Stonum, so this is pretty minor.

The Ugly: Jerel Worthy's puzzling distaste for Mizzou football:

(HT: Dr. Saturday)

The best part of the whole thing isn't even the tattoo itself, but Coach Dantonio's response to it (per Worthy): "Cool tattoo." In Dantonio-speak, "cool tattoo" is equivalent to "THAT IS AMAZING MAN SERIOUSLY I  AM GENUINELY ENTHUSED" for normal human beings with emotions and a soul and whatnot. This creation is the physical embodiment of DERP. In fact, Worthy could have just tattooed DERP across his bicep and the message would have come through just the same.

Wolverine Historian: 

Announcers at the beginning mentioning Bo's Wolverines dropping 70 on Illinois the week before...Bo, making it cool to drop obscene amounts of points on the Illini way before RR made it fashionable.

More reasons to like this team:

Kevin Koger wears awesome hats and watches Dragon Ball Z (!). Awesome. Hopefully Koger doesn't take as long to develop to his full potential this season as the average DBZ story arc.



Ruffin McNeill...no longer fat, sweaty. Michigan signs 5-year extension with CBS radio. Miami football keepin' kosher. 11W covers Day 1 of fall camp in Columbus. The Wolverine Blog asks some questions, and answers them. BHGP not exactly sold on Iowa's offensive line situation. Hammer & Rails takes a look at the Hoosiers...prediction? "This has to be a win for us." Joe Pa sustains some injuries in practice...apparently wanted to just shake it off and go home but the doctors forced him to let them take a look at him. Does this mean Joe Pa goes back upstairs to the booth?