Consider the Smoshtrycz, 12/12/2011

Unseen Things: So, due to the lameness of not living in Michigan/ESPN3, I was not able to actually watch the Oakland game. I did listen to it via MGoBlue audio, which brings me to why I'm giving a game that I wasn't able to actually watch its own section. From the very beginning until the very end, the guy doing the audio kept referring to an "Evan Smoshtrycz," and based on the box score and the flow of the game, this guy is pretty good. Whoever recruited this fellow/allowed him to play basketball with human beings...

...is awesome. Evan Smoshtrycz is seen above, running the floor/savannah and exceeding expectations. Yes, the mispronunciation was a flimsy excuse to post the above but it's there and what's done is done. 

I'm not going to attempt to dissect a game I didn't watch, but a few things: 

• This was Hardaway's second sluggish start in the past three games. Hopefully this doesn't become a trend.

• When Stu Douglass dunks a basketball, flawless victory is assured. Interesting that Vogrich came off the bench before Stu, but with the latter dropping 13 and just being capable of doing more things than Vogrich, I don't think that's significant. 

• On a serious note, it's nice to see Smotrycz starting to put it together. I've talked about how I think he could be a real good player for us once he learns what he can and can't do and slows down a little bit when he's trying to make something happen with the ball in his hands. Twenty points, nine rebounds, and not fouling out is not a bad day for a 90% ostrich, 10% man (okay I'm done). As Rod Beard notes, Smotrycz is the definitive X-factor. If he can continue to chip in at least 8-10 points, an appropriate number of boards, and not kill his game via excessive fouling, then that is a fine player we've got there complementing Burke and Hardaway. 

• Looks like Akunne missed his first shot of the year...UNACCEPTABLE. 

• Burke, awesome once again; 38 minutes played in this one, though, is not so awesome. 

• Another quiet outing offensively for Zach "True Grit" Novak but in place of scoring points he was all like "hey guys, how about an 8:1 assist to turnover ratio?" and everyone was like "yeah, that sounds cool." So, he did that.

• The Wolverines absolutely shot the lights out in the second half, edging the Golden Grizzlies by 10 in the second half; if it wasn't for a ridiculous run by Oakland in the first half, Michigan probably would've won by 15-20. Regardless, this was a solid win (or non-loss, I guess) and Michigan has the fortune of playing a few cupcakes before the Big Ten schedule begins. Michigan takes on Arkansas Pine-Bluff tomorrow at 7 ET on ESPNU. 

Familiar Territory: On the heels of a shaky performance against Braxton Miller, the secondary looks to bounce back against Logan Thomas and the Hokies. Coach Hoke speaks to the aforementioned performance: 

"That’s alarming," Hoke said. "(Virginia Tech's) quarterback has ... (29) touchdowns this year. They’re very good at what they do, and we have to be tighter in coverage. We have to be better in zone. All those things are part of it.”

I'm in the process of watching the Clemson game again (due to it being on at the same time as the B1G Title Game, I wasn't able to the first time around), but for now I'll say that although VT has played a pretty weak schedule, Logan Thomas is the real deal. I've referred to him as the Dollar Tree version of Cam Newton before, and I still think that to be the case. In addition to the dynamic David Wilson, VT skill's players at these two positions are at least as good as Ohio State's, and at quarterback Thomas is certainly more dangerous at this point in his career. I'll have to watch some of the game footage that MGoVideo has so conveniently put it to get a feel for the quality of the OL and wideouts; I would guess that the overall talent of these position groups lags behind that of Ohio State's respective groups, but I'll have to see for myself. 

On the flip side, I don't think Michigan/Mattison will be as susceptible to being surprised by the opposing offense's capabilities like they were against Ohio State and Bollman's surprisingly aggressive game plan. So, there's that. 

Norm Parker Retires: As you probably already know by now, long time Iowa DC Norm Parker is retiring; this is a big deal for the Iowa program, and I'm not really sure that they can replace a guy like that. Although Iowa's defense was fairly average in most statistical categories this year (42nd in scoring defense, 68th in total defense), Iowa has thrived for years on that side of the ball with seemingly very little talent and an ability to turn people like "Tyler Sash" into above average college safeties. Every year when you sit down to read a preview of the Iowa game, you'd be liable to find the same widely distributed sentiments vis-a-vis Iowa's defense. You know what they're going to do. They do what they do. They don't blitz. They do what they do regardless of the circumstances. Seriously, they don't blitz. 

You always think these things will end up being in your favor, but, much of the time that has not been the case. There's something to be said for picking one thing and doing it very well. It gives a program a certain identity that allows it to say "this is what we do" and have recruits know it. With Parker's departure, I have a hard time seeing Iowa not continuing to decline as that 2009 Orange Bowl-capping season continues to get smaller and smaller in the rear view mirror. Ferentz is locked in at Iowa through 2015, but that won't quiet the Ferentz to the NFL chatter. I doubt he goes anywhere; he's getting paid a ridiculous amount of money at a place where he won't get fired after a couple of bad years like he would in the NFL. As much as his coaching persona fits in the NFL, he'll stay IME. 

You're Hurt, I'm Hurt, Everybody's Hurt!: Rothstein on Woolfolk and JT bonding while injured. It is oh so fluffy but that's not always a bad thing: 

His parents bought him a recliner, one he sat in on Nov. 6, 2010 -- the day after surgery -- watching the Wolverines play Illinois in Michigan Stadium and was close to tears.

Floyd watched the rest of Michigan's regular season games in 2010 from that recliner, fighting his emotions each Saturday and often texting Woolfolk because the players who were likely to comprise half of the Wolverines' starting defensive backfield last season couldn't drive the 20 minutes they lived from each other to watch games together.

One of my first memories of Woolfolk on the field was against Eastern Michigan; it was late in the game and I think he got burned for a touchdown (it didn't matter because the game was already put away). I was a freshman and so was he. I don't think either of us expected what would happen the next few years. I'm glad that I'm going to be able to watch his last game as a Wolverine in NOLA this January; it's been a bumpy ride but I think he'd tell you that it was all worth it in the end. 

Mo' Money Mo' Problems: As a result of Michigan's Sugar Bowl berth, Brady Hoke is getting some extra money. This is all well and good, but given who Brady Hoke is and the bowl that we are going to be playing in, I feel that a pile of sugar would've been a much more appropriate bonus: 

No, this will absolutely not be the last time this appears before the bowl game. 

More? Couple of Michigan honorable mentions in Pro Football Weekly's All-American Team. Jim McElwain, Alabama OC, gets the Colorado State coaching job...man, when was the last time they were relevant? By the way, thanks for Caleb Hanie, Colorado State. Thanks. Auburn tailback/only good thing about 2011 Auburn football Michael Dyer is suspended for the bowl game against UVA; adjust your bowl challenge pick 'ems accordingly. 

All Glory Is Fleeting, 11/9/11

The End: There's really no need to produce an elaborate rundown of the PSU scandal here, as others have already done so more comprehensively than I could have. With that said, I have to say that I don't feel "sorry" for Paterno (especially in light of his apparent refusal to resign/decision to retire after the season ends), as I don't think anybody other than the victims themselves and their families deserve any sort of sympathy. This cannot be stated enough times or with enough vehemence.

As far as Joe's legacy goes (which is so far down the list of things to fret over as to be essentially meaningless), an EDSBS commenter recalled the final lines of Patton (side bar, but if you ever want to make yourself more intellectually well-rounded--and funnier--EDSBS comment sections are as good a place to start as any):

For over a thousand years, Roman conquerors returning from the wars enjoyed the honor of a triumph - a tumultuous parade. In the procession came trumpeters and musicians and strange animals from the conquered territories, together with carts laden with treasure and captured armaments. The conqueror rode in a triumphal chariot, the dazed prisoners walking in chains before him. Sometimes his children, robed in white, stood with him in the chariot, or rode the trace horses. A slave stood behind the conqueror, holding a golden crown, and whispering in his ear a warning: that all glory is fleeting. 

It is both amazing and saddening that one of the few seemingly irrevocably solid entities--underscored further by an increasingly sordid college football landscape--left in college football has revealed himself to be no different than the rest in the span of a few days. But, let's be honest, these events had been incubating for years, ever since the day that McQueary and Paterno saw and heard something so horrible and yet decided to look in every other direction other than that of moral compulsion. I don't understand how Joe Pa can be so devoid of shame as to coach another game, but it appears that he just might unless the lower end of the NYT's report comes to fruition. If Joe Pa coaches this Saturday, it will surely set the backdrop for one of the most bizarre, emotionally conflicted college football atmosphere of all time.

Even if PSU does the right thing regarding all those who are culpable*, given the nature of the crimes...nothing can ever truly be enough.

*Which, it goes without saying, should entail immediate dismissal of Paterno, McQueary, Spanier, and any other administrative types who heard about these things and did nothing.

Let's Have A Commitment Time: Michigan acquired commit #24 on Tuesday, in the form of Pioneer tailback Drake Johnson. This is an interesting commitment given the complete absence of recruiting hype or meaningful offers, but a closer look reveals a player that offers some ability; namely, speed. I admittedly haven't heard much about him until now, but Ace's Hello post seems to denote a very Mike Shaw-esque skill set. A guy with speed in spades who tends to bounce things with regularity while lacking the moves that separate a high school athlete from an FBS-level tailback. Trust the coaches and all, but I'm not sure how much of an impact he'll have at the college level, but we'll see...Mike Hart etc. etc.

Almost as relevant as the commitment in and of itself is how this affects Michigan's courtship of Buckeye commit Bri'onte Dunn. On the surface it would seem that Michigan has essentially thrown in the towel re: prying Dunn away from the Buckeyes, but Kyle Meinke says not so fast. Another potential implication is that, in light of open spots becoming increasingly scarce, Michigan may be operating under the notion that AJ Williams will in fact be a lineman at the college level, which is not exactly a stretch given that he is already pretty huge and has been playing at the tackle position this season anyway*. I wouldn't mind this at all given the lack of depth on the line, but Michigan will still need to land at last one more OL, in addition to two receivers (Darboh, please don't go to Iowa and become the next inexplicably good Iowa receiver).

*Apparently he's a whopping 290 pounds already, of which some is probably bad weight but will inevitably become good weight once he starts a college S&C program.

On The Disappearance of Thomas Gordon: After everybody spent the rest of the weekend wondering why Gordon had been unseated in favor of Woolfolk, Brady Hoke explained:

It's simple: Fifth-year senior Troy Woolfolk, who moved to safety two weeks ago so freshman standout Blake Countess can start at cornerback, had a better week of practice. For Hoke, that was enough to keep Gordon on the bench.

Okay, I guess. That answer is a little bit unsatisfying but you can't really argue with it as a fan. Still, I don't see how one week of practice can cancel out two thirds of a season's worth of competent play in favor of a guy who probably isn't even 100% and got beat out at corner by a freshman. I don't know...establishing an environment of competition and accountability on a week-to-week basis from the beginning of Hoke's tenure is obviously vital. Either way, even if Gordon doesn't start this week, there's no question he should see the field in some capacity, whether at safety or the nickel. On the bright side, our next three opponents aren't exactly Oklahoma State when it comes to passing the ball, so our safeties shouldn't be tested deep with any great capability by Scheelhaase, Martinez, and Miller. At the same time, all three can and will run the ball, and I just think Gordon brings a level of physicality that Woolfolk simply does not, let alone a banged up Woolfolk.

The Mediocre Bowl (also see: "every Big Ten game in 2011"): Illinois blog "Hail to the Orange" talks about the importance of the upcoming titanic matchup:

Illinois who lost to Purdue, who earlier this year lost to Rice. Michigan who lost to Iowa, who just the week before lost to basement dwellers Minnesota. The same Illinois team that earlier this year defeated Arizona State, and the same Michigan who beat Notre Dame. This could be a valuable lesson that the there is no transitive property in football, but it is also further proof that here in the Big Ten, we are sorely lacking in elite teams that can run away with the league.

Pretty much. The Big Ten=ACC, and that is ironclad.

This Week In Schadenfreude: Unfortunately, Michigan is featured prominently. "AAAARGHBBLGGOG" is pretty much the only justifiable response to any of that. I'd be careful of awarding Alabama anything though, even if it is the "Tears of Unfathomable Sadness" or the "Scott Tenorman of the Week." Alabama fans everywhere are now trying to cobble together these two designations into a justification for claiming their 37478th national championship. WOOOOO SCHADENFREUDE NATIONAL CHAMPS ROLL TAHD ROLL!

More? Leach swingin' that sword in the general direction of Oxford, MS...please let this happen/get him back in college football somewhere. 11W on the evil that is ESPN vis-a-vis realignment. Arkansas State is #1...in attendance-related incentives. RR back to the Bayou? I'd like to think he can snag a better job than that but who knows how bullish the college football market is on him right now. Grantland piece on the PSU scandal and the disillusionment of the fan.

Sweet Homecoming

Best adjective for Al Borges's physique...lumpy? Wave field-esque? Buxom?
(HT: Mike DeSimone)

Michigan 36, Purdue 14

Michigan has seven wins in hand having played two less games than they did at the seven win mark last season (coincidentally, both wins against Purdue). At this point, Michigan is grabbing wins like items at an Old Country Buffet; these things might not be of high quality, but this is America and MORE is better than anything else. Yes, I am comparing the quality of Big Ten competition to the lukewarm comestibles of a buffet chain. 

There's not much to say other than that this one was vaguely reminiscent of conference blowouts of old. Despite beating Illinois (which, at this point, might not even have been an "upset") last weekend in the friendly confines of Ross-Ade, I didn't have that sinking feeling about this game that I had before Northwestern. Michigan is a decidedly better team than Purdue and Saturday bore that out from start to finish, a small blip at the onset notwithstanding. It was a cool and comfortable victory, and maybe this is more a commentary on the state of football at Purdue but the entire thing felt like it occupied a level of hype just a touch above that of your average non-conference game. If you looked at the relative emptiness of the student section at any point, you would've almost imagined that maybe Eastern Michigan or Delaware State was standing on the sidelines across the way. 

But, even things like that can't really bother you when Michigan is 7-1 and additional wins are not exactly difficult to rationally assimilate into your worldview. Despite not being "home" for Homecoming, what I saw on TV this past Saturday left me in a decidedly familiar and comfortable place. 

The Offense

After an abysmal showing in East Lansing, the offense came to play this weekend at home. Michigan put up a healthy 36 points but if things had ever gotten serious they easily could've put up more. A lot of people should come in for praise this weekend: Denard, Borges, Toussaint, the offensive line. Denard looked sharp throwing the ball on a number of intermediate routes, even zinging a few that would be considered nice tosses for a true pro-style guy (e.g., the the 10-yard completion to Hemingway on the first drive). This is encouraging. While I don't think that the MSU game was necessarily an outlier, Denard can throw the ball adequately once he builds up some confidence early in games. He has the arm, and anybody who says otherwise is clueless. Backed up near our own goal line to start the second quarter, Denard launched one that wasn't quite Vick-esque (in that Vick probably wouldn't have had Roundtree pull up much at all) but was still supremely impressive because he felt the Purdue lineman and stepped back into a nice pocket where he set his feet and threw. This might be expected or an ordinary series of events for most quarterbacks, but for Denard it was an encouraging development. 

Otherwise, the one interception from Denard was what it was. If Denard can limit himself to one turnover a game then I think most people would be pretty happy. Devin's pick looked like a case of miscommunication, and I guess you can afford to take these kinds of things when you're blowing out Purdue. 

Other than Denard's solid bounceback performance, the running game was obviously superb and the number one thing to feel good about. Here's a kind of terrifying statistic: Fitz's 20 carries made him the first non-Denard back to get 20+ carries in a game since Carlos Brown in 2009 against Illinois (yes, that game). That is truly unbelievable (it really shouldn't be given the dependence on Denard in the running game, but for some reason it's still really surprising). Now, Fitz probably won't find that much room against Nebraska and Ohio State (and probably not even Iowa or Illinois), but it was nice to see someone other than Denard carrying the load. This is how it should be. Denard carried 15 times (for 63 yards), which is more than I thought he did but isn't exactly horrible. The failure on 4th and goal was probably the only thing you can complain about re: the ground game...as money as that play is, it was bound to get stopped eventually (especially with our relatively small line). 

Having watched a lot of Auburn in the Malzahn Era, I've always sort of been jealous of a running game that is creative in the ways it sets plays up, from pre-snap motion to who is carrying to the ball to ways of delivering the ball to the ball carrier. While we haven't quite gotten to that level of creativity yet, we're getting there. The dual-QB formation is starting to figure itself out. I think that Denard is still good for an effective jet sweep about once or twice a game, but I think it's clear that Borges will make his money by playing off of Denard in that set-up. It did of course help that Purdue is just not that good, but either way I'd have to say that this was probably my favorite game thus far from a play-calling perspective. Then again, everything looks nice when it works.

After the game Purdue LB Joe Holland said (emphasis mine):

They ran a couple of things that we hadn't seen them run all year and they had two weeks to prepare an offensive game plan.

Well, isn't that nice. So is this:

Purdue's backers completely overrun this but Fitz exploits this like a good back should; when you force relatively untalented players to defend in space, this is what happens. This wrinkle has the potential to do, well...what it did. After giving it to Denard on the jet once or twice, Fitz will have acres of green to work with on the other side. Obviously this won't always go for a TD, but it's just another example of many "smoke and mirrors" type plays that we will need to get the running game going in the absence of the ability to run traditional power plays (other than Denard Power).

The Defense 

After hearing rumors of a knee injury to the Bringer of Light/Competency that is Jordan Kovacs (and then confirmation of said rumors), I was a little worried that Michigan would immediately revert to the sieve-like state it had held since time immemorial. After that initial Purdue touchdown, I'm sure every Michigan fan was all: 

NO KOVACS AND NO COMPETENT SAFETY PLAY MAKE MICHIGAN FAN GO CRAZY. 

After that, things calmed down and Michigan finished with another solid performance, relinquishing the aforementioned 7 points and then another TD in garbage time when dudes like Beyer and Clark were on the field. Purdue couldn't do much on the ground, rushing for a mere 89 yards on 29 attempts (3.1 YPC) and passed for 222 yards on 27 attempts, with 48 yards coming on the aforementioned breakdown and 48 more coming in the last drive with under two minutes to go. So, while Michigan is obviously no Alabama or LSU, I think we can safely say that we have a good defense. Every time I think about some of the things that might be wrong with this defense, I think of last year in Bloomington, where I was present as we made Ben Chappell look like Peyton Manning. It's a pretty easy transition from the aforementioned to "man, Greg Mattison is the smartest person of all time next to Greg Robinson" given the results thus far. We'll see how Mattison does without Martin and RVB next year, but that's a worry for another day. 

Mike Martin was his usual Hulk self, consistently blowing up double teams and notching two sacks along the way. The lack of a consistent space-clogging nose to free him up will continue to be frustrating, but Martin should still be able to make hay against the remaining lines on the schedule. Countess continues to be the precocious freshman that he is (although not without mistakes), and Woolfolk's return to safety was not completely disastrous. Hoke saying that he would like Troy to be more physical at times is pretty valid and not just Hokespeak. On the long TD, both Countess and Woolfolk allowed themselves to get slowed down by pathetic, flailing blocks (Countess by the slot and Woolfolk by a clumsy OL), giving Bush the chance to turn what should've been maybe a 10-15 yard gain at most into a long touchdown. Given the nature of the play itself, I can't decide whether to be more or less upset than I am (which is not that upset anyway, FWIW);  it was a screen that is ostensibly pretty easy to diagnose from Woolfolk's position on the field. Okay, so Countess gets sort of slowed up and then whiffs at the ball carrier's feet. It's a mistake but I can live with that so long as the help shows up as it should. Unfortunately, Woolfolk is very un-physical here, as the big guy blocking him does the standard big guy blocking a small guy act (also known as "engage for about a second and then do a Lunogoesque flop") but still manages to slow Troy enough. Another unfortunate aspect of the play is the fact that Floyd isn't quite able to track Bush down from the backside despite seeming to have the angle for a second. I guess that's just something we'll have to live with with him on the field (otherwise he's been about as good as you can expect him to be). 

Special Teams 

So, special teams were kind of good in general this week, in perhaps one of the best all-around performances of the season. First of all, though...Gibbons? 

Gibbons was 2/2 on the day, knocking in 22 and 37-yarders. I still admittedly don't have enormous confidence in him making a field goal in a tight situation on the road but you could probably say that about 80% of college kickers anyway. Elsewhere, Hagerup had a quiet but solid day, booting two for an average of 40.5 (and a long of 49). 


However, the kick return game was probably the most notable development in this phase, with Odoms returning three for a total of 81 yards, including a long of 33 that was very close to getting broken for much more. I'm not sure if  we'll see this type of production consistently but you've got to think that we'll break a meaningful return at some point this season, and what better time to do it than now as we enter the stretch run. 


Speaking of Odoms on returns against Purdue, doesn't that TD in 2008 feel like it happened ages ago? Time flies. 

Miscellaneous Minutiae 

• I don't think Shaw is anything more than a niche player at this point but he was surprisingly effective this week. With Devin at quarterback and Shaw, Denard, and even Gallon all being threats to carry the ball at any given time, I'd have to think this forces teams to be overly edge-conscious, maybe leaving things open for an attack of the middle? Either way, 5 for 56 yards and a TD is not bad for your #3 ball carrier in a given game. 
• Again, Michigan stifled the opposing offense on third down: Purdue converted a paltry 3/13 on third down. This puts Michigan barely in the top 40 at #39 in third down prevention percentage (36.21%), putting us a couple of spots behind Notre Dame, six behind PSU, and 21 behind MSU (Illinois and Ohio State are also in the top 25 in this department). This is easily the most endearing quantifiable aspect of the defensive turnaround (other than points allowed, obviously). It's hard not to be excited given that we're doing all of this without great depth or even talent at most positions. 
• Toussaint...Hart with speed? HART WITH SPEED. But seriously, Toussaint is the #1 guy despite Hoke's non-commital Hokespeak on the matter. 
• Lewan has been: 1) WWE-style arm-barred 2) punched in the face and 3) dinged up in general as a result of the last two games, yet he keeps coming back for more. I think it's fair to say that Lewan is playing with mansome TOUGHNESS. 
• I just have to, but man...really guy who is in charge of playing piped-in music? At the risk of sounding all ND Nationy, but Seven Nation Army does not need to be played a million times a game. The more indistinguishable the Michigan gameday experience gets vis a vis your average college venue, the sadder I get. I'm not against piped-in music at all (other than certain songs which are terrible coughSweetCarolinecough) but there has to be a certain aspect of moderation to the whole thing. This is of course not even mentioning the fact that it seems like literally everybody else in the conference does it now (I mean, even the Lions did it fergodsakes). 
• Mike Martin notched Michigan's first safety since the 2003 Houston game...good times. The only thing I really remember about that game is that we destroyed them and the students chanted "Houston's better" after the annihilation of ND the next week. 
• Michigan's been pretty lucky thus far re: the injury bug, but with Kovacs looking like he's out for at least one more and both Barnum and Lewan looking like they're at least definitely not 100%, Michigan will have to dip into the shallow talent pool for reinforcements. Michigan should be okay without Barnum if necessary (Schofield seems to have been about as good) but Lewan would be an irreplaceable loss. 

Down the Rabbit Hole

Brady Hoke, master of doing nothing while doing everything...pretty sure he's secretly a Jedi 

(HT: Mike DeSimone)

Michigan 28, San Diego State 7

Another week has come and gone and Michigan is 4-0 once again. This is where our collective guard should go up. The last two years, the bridge covering the distance between us and Big Ten glory (or, let's be honest, the Capital One Bowl) dropped out from underneath us, leaving us to the voracious appetite of our conference foes and various reptilian media personalities who shall go unnamed in this space. I'm not going to argue whether or not this time is different because I don't even know what that really means. Does it mean that Michigan will finish the season with more wins? Does it mean that we will be more competitive against the Big Ten schedule (primarily against OSU and MSU)? Does it mean we'll reach some benchmark of improvement , whether vague or statistically specific, that we can at a certain point say that we are doing the opposite of what we were ostensibly doing last season (i.e., regressing)? Does it mean all of these things at once? I'm not really sure. The Big Ten is certifiably pathetic this year (Rittenberg ranked us 3rd--THIRD!--in the conference), and an extra win or two against teams that have replaced PSU and Wisconsin on the schedule, while nice, isn't a reason start making arrangements to cordon off State St. for the biggest pre-Capital One Bowl parade of all time.

With that Debbie Downer bit out of the way, I will say that it feels good to be 4-0 once again even if it could all very well be a mirage, even if we've played only one team (a team whose offense can best be described as Malfunctioning Eddie from Futurama) with a pulse. I'll take it, and with 6-0 looking like a distinct possibility if not an inevitability then all I have to say is let's let the Era of Good Feelings continue.

The Offense


So I think it's safe to say that we're starting to get an idea for what this offense can and can't do as we sit on the precipice of the Big Ten schedule. Watching Denard throw the ball has been an adventure to say the least, and I'm pretty sure the way I feel as Denard is about to release the ball is exactly how I felt in 2009 whenever he'd appear in games. I'm not interested in ridiculous buzz words like "regression" but things don't look good. How long can you pin Denard's lack of accuracy on nerves or unfamiliarity with the schemes or whatever other reason has been conjured up? I believe that Denard gets too hyped up before games, I really do, but at a certain point you've got to learn to harness that excitability and unleash it when you're streaking down the field and trying to destroy the safety's angle with pure, unadulterated speed.

In any case, Denard had yet another Denardian game--are we at the point yet that Denard's performances merit an eponymous adjective, like Kafkaesque but scary in a different way?--passing for a sub-100 amount and running for an amount that would make Forrest Gump tired just thinking about it. Denard's already over halfway to a 1,000 yards rushing this year, a stat which of course includes the rain-shortened Western game where he only had 46. It's hard to complain, but Denard carrying the ball 22 times (of course, only some were by design, but still) compared to Fitz+Smith's 21 is...right? An equitable division of carries? Horrible because because Denard is gonna break, man? I don't know. Maybe we can just keep running Denard all day and he doesn't get hurt at all, but I just find that highly unlikely. If we're running him 26 and 21 times against EMU and SDSU respectively, what does that say about his workload throughout the Big Ten schedule? Once again, thank you 2011 schedule for kind of taking it easy on us. Notre Dame didn't impress all that much against Pitt, but there's an outside shot that ND could end up being the best team we'll have faced all year. Think about that. Notre Dame. I'm not saying it's going to happen, but if it does then this season will be pretty awesome even if it exists only in some mirage-like Matrix world. Denard might not be able to hit an open receiver, but he's still basically Neo with the ball in his hands. If only he could could sit in that chair and receive a training module on how to pass, life would be so much easier.

In non-Denard news, the tailbacks were once again their standard selves. Smith had a pretty poor game minus the one beast mode touchdown and the 32-yarder; any questions about who should start can pretty much be shot into the sun at this point. Toussaint is better, and while he's probably not going to join the pantheon of elite Michigan running backs (sorry, Fred) but he's more than good enough for our purposes. Thirteen carries for 67 yards is an unspectacular but very solid day. He is an agile back with enough quicks to navigate his way to the right hole and occasionally blow through it as he did against Western. Unfortunately, the offensive line has had somewhat of a tough time thus far this year, but it's still early and Michigan will get plenty of chances to hone their ground game in the coming weeks (not to mention in practice).

It's become clear that Hemingway et al are going to fall painfully short of the lofty pre-season expectations that many--including myself--had for him/them. Their numbers just have to go up as the season goes on. As great as Denard doing his thing is, we have way too much talent on the outside to waste. Insert last week's post-EMU general call for hitches, bubble screens, and any other manner of getting the ball from Denard to a receiver for confidence-building and, you know, the actual completion of passes. That'd be nice. Get Denard and Borges in the training room of the Nebuchadnezzar, ASAP.

The Defense


All things considered, the defense is...not a disaster? There are even things to be optimistic about, which is a foreign feeling and makes me uncomfortable even though I know it's a good thing. Of course, Marqueis Gray will run for 900 yards next week and I'll just think yeah, that sounds about right. 

Michigan did get a lot of help from Ryan Lindley, who was about as accurate as Denard except that he threw it a whopping 48 times. Unfortunately for the Aztecs, many of Lindley's passes fell nowhere near their intended target, whether due to miscommunication, pressure, or just bad accuracy. Our secondary is giving us reasons to be excited, but they're not at the point where they can subsist completely on the magnitude of their own talents. Lindley only completed 23 of 48 passes for 253 yards, many completed to Tacopants. Michigan did a fine job (as they've done all season) of bringing pressure right up the middle (think back to Demens coming up the middle against Western three times in a row). After doing some amateur scouting of Lindley's performance against TCU last season as part of a general look at the Borges offense, I pegged him [Lindley] as a guy to be pretty worried about, especially when paired with a legitimately above average tailback like Hillman. Lindley disappointed--some of which can be attributed to Michigan's defensive performance--but you also can't deny that the loss of SDSU's top 4 receivers, either to the NFL or injuries, was too much for them to overcome. Other than Escobar and maybe Lockett, SDSU just didn't have the weapons to challenge Michigan's secondary. I guess it's a good thing Michigan's secondary held up pretty well, because if they didn't then that would've meant getting burnt by a receiving corps full of noobs.

On a serious note, can we go ahead and just admit that JT Floyd and not Woolfolk is probably our top corner? Woolfolk taking Hemingway's place as the team injury magnet hasn't helped, but Woolfolk was beaten on a couple of occasions whereas Floyd held his ground nearly every time, with a PBU and just generally good coverage a majority of the time. I used to think of him as a Grant Mason-y type, but he's definitely proven himself to be a little more serviceable than that. Absence makes the heart grow fonder re: Woolfolk, but, he's still a good player and a leader and a more than solid #2 guy at this point in Michigan's rebuild of the defense.

Elsewhere, Martin, RVB, and even Roh were fairly active in this one, and Campbell continued to be not definitively bad, which in Michigan fan terms might as well mean All-American status. Seriously, though, Campbell...he's learning. They can rebuild it...maybe they did? I'll hold off on excessive hype until he starts to prove it against Big Ten teams (not that any of the offensive lines he'll face in October are anything to write home about). After a week where I foolishly thought "so where has Mike Martin?" he showed up time and again, blowing up the middle of the line and getting in Lindley's face. I'm sorry for even thinking about questioning you, Mike. It'll never happen again. So yeah, he's still good but getting doubled over and over again kind of mitigates your impact on the stat sheet. Got it.

Jake Ryan got is first official start and looked pretty good despite getting rocked on that one play that Floyd got temporarily hurt on. I would really love to see Cam Gordon return but at this point I'm just kind of ignoring everything that Brady Hoke says about him, and if he [Cam] returns then I'll treat it like a pleasant surprise. For the time being, though, Jake Ryan is someone to get really excited about. He plays like a freshman at times but he's going to be good when all is said and done.

Contain is still an enormous issue for this defense, but then again containing Ronnie Hillman is difficult for even an experienced, edge-conscious team. Generally, this is further proof that Michigan's defensive speed is not even close to up to snuff; that issue will be rectified in time through S&C and recruiting. For now, we'll have to hope that the team continues to pick up what Mattison is dropping. It definitely looks like they're making some plays that haven't been made in the past few years.

From a statistical perspective, giving up only 7 points (in addition to 10 and 3 against the Michigan direction schools) is nothing to scoff at. Yes, part of this has certainly been luck, and yes, not all of Michigan's turnovers have been forced. Michigan's current turnover rate is unsustainable but that's hopefully okay because Michigan will (ostensibly) be better on both sides of the ball as the season goes on. In any case, holding a back like Hillman to only 109 yards (well below his average) is pretty encouraging. That guy is good, and he'll go on to have many more 100+ yard games this season.

I'm not going to say anything about the safeties because talking about safeties usually means something bad happened, and...nothing bad happened, really. Our safeties are competent, if not good. There, I said it. OUR SAFETIES ARE GOOD, Y'ALL.

The Special Teams


Gibbons?

Also, Matt Wile had a nice game punting the ball, but the assumption is that Hagerup--assuming there isn't any residual post-suspension doghouse stuff going on--should get the starting nod going forward.


Miscellaneous Minutiae

• I'll admit it, I definitely thought and said "punt" on that 4th down from our 48. I'm not proud of it, but we all make mistakes. Maybe my brief meeting with Lloyd is to blame for this instance of philosophical and mathematical derpitude? Probably.
• Jake Ryan is doing things on the reg now so I'm replacing the "Jake Ryan!" bullet with "Blake Countess!" Yes, let the hype train pick up speed. Seriously, we have actual depth in the secondary this year, and it is glorious. Countess pretty much blanketed his guy despite the fact that Lindley was looking to target him specifically. He honestly might have had a better game than both Avery and Woolfolk. 
• Hopkins needs to not play for a long time...it should be Smith and Fitz almost exclusively the rest of the way, with Shaw getting the scraps. Hopkins was about to finish off a pretty nice run before he fumbled, which makes it even more frustrating. Some guys just have problems holding onto the ball for whatever reason (it's not like it was an exceptional defensive play or anything), and unfortunately Hopkins is one of those people. 
• So it looks like I was completely wrong to think that Avery>Floyd in the preseason. I still have high hopes for Avery but he's still young; the lone SDSU touchdown was completed on him. 
• I'd like to see linebackers and not defensive backs lead the team in tackles in any given game but  I guess that comes with the territory of a "bend but don't break." 
• THIS IS A PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT AND YES I KNOW THIS IS IN ALL CAPS I DON'T EVEN CARE: IT'S 2011, STOP JINGLING YOUR KEYS! IT'S NOT EVEN WITTY OR ORIGINAL, NOT TO MENTION THE FACT THAT IT MAKES ZERO NOISE! I'D RATHER LISTERN TO POP EVIL ON A LOOP FOR 3+ HOURS THAN SEE ANOTHER PERSON JINGLE THEIR KEYS EVER AGAIN! JHWOIFJPIJFQDNQOIDJIDJWIOEIEOI
• Okay I'm done. But seriously, stop it. 
• I'm not 100% sure what the injury situation is regarding Woolfolk and Barnum (and even Cam Gordon), but if there's any doubt about their ability to play then they should sit against the Gophers. Also, if Denard carries the ball any more than 15 times next week (rather, if we need him to) then I might start to get a little frustrated with the state of the offense. 
• I don't care if this is a mirage or not real or whatever; it's great to be 4-0 once again. 

What To Watch: Week 2

Here's what we're looking at for Week 2...unfortunately, there really aren't any games as big as the two primetime games last week, but there are still some good ones to watch if you keep an open mind. With that said, the conference schedule first:

Around The Big Ten


Michigan-Notre Dame (8 ET...!): I'll be in attendance for this one and I've been counting down the days since I took the plunge and locked in my ticket/plane tickets over a month ago. It will be nigh surreal to be in the Big House so late in the day, and the only conceivable negative about the whole affair is that we'll have to wait all day for it to start. I had Notre Dame penned in as a loss for the Wolverines, but now I'm obviously not so sure. I don't think the Irish are as bad as they played last week, and I don't think they make the same soul-crushing miscues (re: turnovers) this Saturday. Likewise, I really doubt Michigan can expect to get two touchdowns from its defense every week, let alone just this week. I definitely see the Wolverine defense forcing some turnovers (after all, they did last year under the "tutelage" of GREG ROBINSON), as both Rees  (and Crist, it it comes to him) are prone to mistakes. The Irish playing this one in a jacked up Big House only amplifies this propensity for handing the ball over nicely to the other team.

However, this game will be close, and I think many are overlooking the fact that the Western game could easily have been a much more stressful affair, and that ND dominated the Bulls in every stat but the end result. If you put a gun to my head and told me to make a pick right now, first I'd say: a) calm down man, it's just a game and b) Michigan wins. There, I said it. Michigan had no problem with Floyd last year, and although I think he probably has a little more success this year, it won't be enough to negate the mistakes that I think Rees will make (unforced and forced). Herron was the beneficiary of the defensive pressure last week, but this week I'm looking to the secondary--which will be tested early and often--to make some plays. Prediction: Woolfolk makes the first pick of his career this Saturday night.


Wisconsin-Oregon State (12:00 ET): The Beavers lost to Sacramento State last week...yeah. The Badgers roll for the second week in a row, and Wilson probably doesn't come out as seemingly jittery (re: overthrowing open receivers) as he did in the first half of the UNLV game.

Ohio State-Toledo (12:00 ET): The Rockets should provide a little more resistance than the Zips did last week, but this should be another blowout, especially considering that the Buckeyes get tailback Jordan Hall and corner Travis Howard back after they served a one-game suspension extra benefits received at a charity event. OSU wins in another blowout.

Michigan State-Florida Atlantic (12:00 ET): I know literally nothing about FAU other than that Howard Schnellenberger, who is awesome, is their head coach and that the Gators whooped them up and down the field last week. MSU beat them pretty unimpressively last year (17-0), so let's see what happens this time. I think the Spartans look better than last week, but I need to see improvement from the offensive line and front 7 to start being more worried about the MSU game than I currently am.

Iowa-Iowa State (12:00 ET): Iowa goes to Ames to face their in-state rival Iowa State. The Hawkeyes should crush the Cyclones, but [insert platitude about throwing out record books]. Seriously though, Iowa wins. Iowa State beat Northern Iowa 20-19 last week...they are not good.

South Dakota State-Illinois (12:00 ET): Don't watch this. Illinois wins big.

Alabama-Penn State (3:30 ET): It's amazing how a game like this can seem so under the radar...two classic programs that are nearly mirror images of each other (defensive prowess, plain but iconic jerseys, classic home venues, etc.), only on opposite sides of the Mason-Dixon line. As much as I despise the Crimson Tide, I really don't see Jay Pa finding any soft spots in the Alabama defense. Penn State's only chance is selling out to stop Richardson in the hope that McCarron/Sims make mistakes. Alabama wins, but it's not a blowout like last year.

Eastern Illinois-Northwestern (3:30 ET): It looks like the Wildcats will be without quarterback Dan Persa again. No worries, though, because it's just Eastern Illinois and Kain Colter was actually pretty good in Chestnut Hill last week.

New Mexico State-Minnesota (3:30 ET): The home debut for new Minnesota head honcho Jerry Kill; a slip-up would be pretty disheartening after a gutsy performance on the road at USC last week.

Purdue-Rice (3:30 ET): Kind of a strange match-up here...not sure why Purdue is travelling to Texas to face Rice of all teams but whatever. Recruiting inroads? Who knows. In any case, Rice got clobbered by Texas last week if that means anything. I couldn't tell you a thing about Rice but I do know that Purdue is pretty bad at everything, which you'd know if you saw them barely escape with a win last week against Middle Tennessee State. I think Purdue joins Indiana and Minnesota this week in the loser's bracket, unfortunately.

Fresno State-Nebraska (7:00 ET): Fresno lost to Cal at Candlestick Park last weekend 21-36; Nebraska is just a tiny bit better than Cal. Fresno shouldn't be able to move the ball too much, and Martinez, Burkhead, Kinnie, etc. will do their thing.

Virginia-Indiana (7:00 ET): Having been to Bloomington a couple of times, I kind of have slight desire to see the Hoosiers not be unequivocally terrible at football. New coach Kevin Wilson seems like a good guy, too, and I genuinely wish IU successs. However, after losing to Ball State last week, things look grim yet again. UVA is far from a football powerhouse, but they stand a pretty decent shot at winning, especially considering that they actually won last weekend (against William & Mary, but still).

Around The Country


The national schedule this week isn't nearly as deep, but there are still a few interesting games with some interesting implications.

Missouri-Arizona State (Friday, 10:30 ET): I'll be in Ann Arbor at this point so I'm not sure if I'll get to watch much of this at all, but this is basically a battle between two decidedly meh teams that I kind of have hovering in and out of the back end of the top 25. Mizzou was kind of underwhelming last week against Miami (OH), and Arizona State dominated UC Davis. Brock Osweiler looks like a definite upgrade over Steven Threet; I'll side with ASU and Vontaze Burfict in this one.

Mississippi State-Auburn (12:20 ET): It's going to be a long, long year on the Plains for Auburn. If the Tigers couldn't handle Utah State's offense, there's literally no way they'll be able to check Chris Relf, Chad Bumphis, and Vick Ballard. With Manny Diaz serving as Mack Brown's new DC, Mississippi State's defense instantly got less fearsome. Memphis was able to move the ball some against the Bulldogs last week, so there's hope for the Tigers on that front. Auburn still has the offensive talent to score on teams, with Emory Blake out wide, Philipp Lutzenkirchen at tight end, and Michael Dyer and Onterio McCalebb in the backfield. Barrett Trotter is pretty weak sauce after the Year of Cam, but Gus Malzahn made Chris Todd (CHRIS TODD!) a viable threat in 2009. Auburn should score a good bit, but that defense is a sieve and Ted Roof is quite frankly not very good at his job.

Georgia-South Carolina (4:30 ET): This is an interesting match-up for the simple fact that Mark Richt is fighting for his job at this point. After a stellar run in Athens, a few mediocre years have really destroyed Richt's public perception, and his incompetent coordinators (previous DC Willie Martinez and current OC Mike Bobo) aren't doing him any favors. South Carolina, on the other hand, is trying to prove that last year wasn't a fluke, and that they still deserve to be at the top of the SEC East. Anything can happen on the road in the SEC though, especially a tough venue like Sanford Stadium. Although Georgia was methodically dismantled by the Broncos in ATL last weekend, I think Georgia comes out a gets a big win that will engender some suspicion of the SEC East's quality from the national media (a team that lost to Boise State beating the division favorites probably isn't good for the conference's perception).

Utah-USC (7:30 ET): Utah's first game in a big time conference and they draw the Trojans...it looks like the Utes will get their left tackle back this week (who was out last week with a concussion), which is nice. USC looked completely uninspired last week, so I'm not sure how big of an upset this would even be these days. Marc Tyler is back for the Trojans, and they better hope he performs because the USC running game was atrocious against the Gophers. I think that USC shapes up and wins this one in a close, hard-fought contest.

Things That May or May Not Happen: Season Predictions

via Maize and Blue Nation

It's game week at last, and so it might as well be time to start locking in some ultimately meaningless predictions. These types are things are just about as pointless as preseason polls, but The permutations are endless, and settling on one prediction is like filling out a single bracket come March Madness. As somebody who usually fills out a few each March, you can conceivably fill out one hundred of those things and still feel good about each and every one of them. This year is another high-variance year; Michigan could come out and look legitimately better as a result of better defensive coaching and another year of experience for a host of underclassmen. However, even if Michigan's improvement is fairly obvious (particularly on the defensive side of the ball), I'm not quite sure that Michigan's record will improve from last year's 7-5 regular season mark.

In short, this is more for my purposes than any black and white determinant of what will/should happen. It's always nice to see where we end up compared with where we thought we'd end up at the beginning. As always, people should keep in mind that Michigan could go 7-5 again while still looking like a much better team. At the same time, it's entirely possible that the Michigan team of the first half of the season and the team of the second half. With that in mind, I'll look at each game and give my thoughts, some general conference predictions, as well as a few others.

Western Michigan: This will be a strange game for me, as it will be the first home game that I won't be in attendance for in a long time (graduating...don't do it). In any case, while hubris does not befit the Michigan Man of late, I think this game should be a slam dunk victory for the Wolverines. WMU is 0-5 against the Wolverines all-time, and I don't think that winless record changes this season. The Broncos return Junior QB Alex Carder, who had a pretty solid year last in 2010 by the numbers: 3,334 yards passing, 30 TD's to 12 INT's, and a 63.1% completion percentage. Carder also proved to be somewhat mobile (relatively), rushing for a little over 400 yards last season.

WMU also returns their top receiver Jordan White, who was granted a 6th year. Honestly, he is probably the only weapon that should register any sort of concern with the defensive staff. His stat line is impressive: he hauled in 10 TD's in 2010 on 94 receptions and 1,378 yards. White isn't a big guy (6'0'' 215), but he seems to produce just fine. WMU does lose their other prolific receiver from last season, Juan Nunez, so it will likely be much easier for teams to focus on White. Other than that, WMU will field a few average backs, in addition to having to replace three of last year's lineman. All the pressure will be on Carder and White.

I don't know if Michigan shuts WMU out, but the result will be very much like the one we saw in 2009...Carder will be running for his life most of the time, and Michigan likely won't show too much on offense with ND coming to town the next week. However, they'll squeeze enough out of the spread remnants of the gameplan, and Denard will have at least one big play (i.e., long touchdown run) on the ground (probably more). Michigan wins 34-7.

Notre Dame: This one, on the other hand, I will be flying in for. Needless to say, the atmosphere will be bizarrely raucous; I can definitely see myself looking around at several points to ask myself if I'm actually in the Big House.

For many years, this game has been a sort of litmus test for the Wolverines. This game is certainly important, but the fact is, ND is one year ahead of us in their program's rebuilding plan under Kelly, and to measure ourselves against them within the context of even this season alone is a little unfair and kind of pointless. Michigan could very easily lose this game and still go on to do good things. Of course, losing this one doesn't affect the Legends standings, so there's that to remember. As a general aside, if somebody asked me "you can only beat two rivals and you have to lose to one, which is the one?", I'd pick ND without hesitation.

Going back to last season, we all remember the sentiment, coming from Michigan and ND fans alike, that we wouldn't have won if Crist had not been forced out for much of the game (hearkening back to the '04 MSU game, in which Drew Stanton was destroyed by one LaMarr Woodley). Crist is once again the starter after an extended battle with the less touted Tommy Rees. After the Michigan game, though, Crist was having a decent season, until he was eventually knocked out with an injury early on in the Tulsa game. Rees then took over and led the Irish to four straight wins (Utah, Army, USC, and Miami), but people quickly forget that the Notre Dame defense improved upon its performance significantly in that span. Rees is a ice backup but Crist is definitely better.

Notre Dame finally loses Armando Allen and the consistently underwhelming Robert Hughes, bringing back formerly highly-touted Cierre Wood and Jonas Gray. However, ND returns 9 of their top 10 OL, which may or may not mitigate the lack of quality (or proven quality) among the RB corps. Of course, ND returns future first rounder Michael Floyd, Theo "Chronicles of" Riddick Jr., and TJ Jones (whom you may remember for this little moment).

Defensively, ND will be stout. Everybody knows about Manti Te'o, and Senior safety Harrison Smith is a guy who has been around and produced (93 tackles last season). The rest of ND's front 7 will be strong, and that's without even mentioning the potential impact of true freshman Aaron Lynch.

This one is really tough to predict, but I'll just go ahead and say it: Michigan probably won't win this game. It will be close, but Michigan got a performance for the ages from Denard and still only barely won. Sure, the game is at home and the atmosphere should be pretty electric, but that only goes so far. ND's offense doesn't scare me too much (I'm sure Cam Gordon is happy that Kyle Rudolph is gone). Crist is a good quarterback and he can occasionally beat you with his legs, and the OL figures to be pretty good. The tailbacks don't seem to have a star as of now, but you never know with that position. It's not like mediocre ND running backs haven't had success against us before.

I think Michigan will still be trying to work out the new offense, and Michigan likely won't be able to take advantage of ND's weakest defensive position group (i.e., the secondary). The defense will still not be good enough to hold ND's offense down. It will be close, and it certainly wouldn't surprise me to see Michigan win. How much spread stuff Borges deigns to run will also be a pretty big factor here (i.e., more is better at this point in the season). Michigan loses 28-20.

Eastern Michigan: No point in wasting too much time on this one. Michigan will win, and win big. Mike Hart in the Big House again will make for some solid game week fluff. Michigan wins by a lot, does it really matter the score? Okay, how about 45-10.

San Diego State: This one, on the other hand, is not getting enough consideration. Although Hoke and Borges are gone, SDSU should still be a dangerous team. If you read my run down of the 2010 TCU game, you'd know that the Aztecs have a pretty talented offensive unit. Unfortunately for the Aztecs, they will be without their top 4 receivers from last season, losing Vincent Brown and DeMarco Sampson to the NFL and Dominique Sandifer and Jay Waddell to injuries. As such, the offense has essentially been declawed, but they still return QB Ryan Lindley, RB Ronnie Hillman (who rushed for 1532 yards and 17 TD's last season), and TE Gavin Escobar. Defensively, SDSU returns 5 starters, but the defense will consist of mostly juniors and sophomores.

Michigan will win this game, but not before SDSU gives the Wolverines a bit of a scare in the first half and into the third quarter. Michigan wins 38-24.

Minnesota: The Gophers are just a bad team and they will probably suffer as a result of the Tim Brewster era for a couple years more. Jerry Kill figures to bring Minnesota back to their ground and pound days under Glen Mason, but the fact is the scheme doesn't really matter because the talent isn't there. Minnesota loses long time starter Adam Weber, who seemed to put up the numbers in a pass-heavy offense but really was fairly terrible. MarQueis Gray is a guy who was somewhat touted and brings some mobility to the QB position. Unfortunately for Coach Kill, Minnesota's leading rusher DeLeon Eskridge left the program  this offseason, making things that much tougher.

The defense returns 8, but they gave up 33.0 ppg last season. Minnesota is not good (how they managed to pick off Illinois and Iowa at the end of last season is a mystery). Gray might be able to run around for some yards but Michigan should be able to gash this defense on the ground and through the air with ease...Michigan wins 35-13.

Northwestern: This is another tough one to judge, but it's certainly winnable. If Michigan has developed enough momentum at this point, they should even be favored despite the Dan Persa hype train. I'm pretty sure the same things could be said about the Wildcats that have been sad about them for the past several years; for Northwestern, that's not at all a bad thing, because it means consistency. Northwestern returns 16 starters (9 on offense), including, of course, Persa and leading receiver Jeremy Ebert. Northwestern's OL also figures to field its best starting five in recent years. Like Michigan, Northwestern leaned on their quarterback on the run game, and it will be important for the Wildcats to find a reliable tailback to carry the ball if they don't want Persa to get injured halfway through the season. However, it looks like that decision might've been made for the NU offensive staff, as an Achilles injury that Persa is still rehabbing will likely force him to remain in the pocket.

Defensively, Northwestern returns 7, but this is not a unit to worry about. They only notched 17 sacks in 2010 (one less than Michigan did) and 29.0 ppg. Vincet Browne--who was 2nd Team All-Big Ten last
year--led the Wildcats with 7.0 sacks, making him probably their only standout.

Northwestern...they are what they are. Some people look at the numbers and call them one of the "luckiest" teams in the NCAA. While that may or may not be true, Fitzgerald has done the most with the minimal talent that he has, and a talented senior quarterback in Persa will be a tough assignment for the Michigan defense. This is the first road game for Michigan, but anybody that has been to a Michigan game at Ryan Field will tell you that there will assuredly be more Michigan fans than Northwestern fans present. By  this point in the season, I think the Wolverines will have started to improve on both sides of the ball, winning this one 31-28, and putting Michigan to a solid start of 4-1.

Michigan State: Okay, so for the first time in a while the Spartans truly have the attention of the Michigan fanbase. Michigan State had a very good season last year, but getting thumped by Alabama and Iowa, while also missing Ohio State, makes it a little less impressive than it seems on paper. With that said, I think MSU comes down a step this year.

Defensively, MSU should field a pretty strong DL, headlined by future first rounder Jerel Worthy and his tattoo. However, the Spartans will need for former Michigan target William Gholston to improve, as Tyler Hoover only registered 3 sacks at the other end position. At linebacker, they will be without the services of Greg Jones and Eric Gordon, only returning SLB Chris Norman. This position group figures to take a step down this season, although how much of a drop it ends up being depends on how former 4-star MLB Max Bullough performs.

Offensively, MSU looks like a team that can win the division and even the conference except for one, tiny issue: the offensive line. The Spartans only return 2 starters, and the departures included LT DJ Young (who was 2nd Team All-Big Ten) and RT J'Michael Deane. The Only Colors runs through the list of candidates to replace Young, one of which is a converted defensive lineman. Nobody will confuse Michigan's defense with Nick Saban's group of 11 Terminators, but this OL is something I'd be worried about if I was a Spartan fan. Otherwise, the skill positions look very good, with Cousins, Cunningham, Martin, Baker, and Bell coming back. Thus, everything hinges on the performance of the line. MSU's skill position guys won't do them much good if their lineman can't block anybody (see 2011 Capital One Bowl).

This game is enormous for Brady Hoke and for Michigan as a program. As much hype as the ND game is getting (and rightfully so), Michigan needs to win this one more. I think Hoke et al will have the team focused and prepared for this game, and the Wolverines will escape EL with a victory, finally flinging the monkey that is MSU's three game streak into the Detroit River. Michigan wins in 2007 fashion...Denard leads a late 4th quarter touchdown drive and Michigan wins 24-21.

Purdue: It's pretty sad that I'm giving this game, a conference game, about as much thought as the EMU game, but...Purdue is bad at football, and Michigan will win easily. The only concern here is a "hangover" after an emotional game in EL, but Michigan is much better on offense than Purdue is on defense (no Ryan Kerrigan is a plus), and Purdue's offense is just laughably incompetent, even more so now with Purdue's annual ACL explosion bonanza victimizing QB Rob Henry. I could see this being like the 2007 Minnesota game for a little while (come out slow, eventually wake up and turn it into a blowout), but ultimately Michigan should get to play a lot of second teamers by the 4th quarter. Michigan wins 38-10. 


Iowa: Michigan is, at this point, sitting at 7-1. Even I will admit that this might be a little optimistic, even considering that the next few games, as I will explain shortly, should go a little differently. However, Michigan's schedule really isn't that tough this year, so a 7-1 start is not out of the question. Beating State in EL is probably the only thing that's somewhat of a reach, and I feel pretty strongly that we'll get that done.

Beginning with the trip to Iowa City, the schedule gets much tougher, and I think Michigan will struggle. I don't necessarily think Iowa will be anything out of the ordinary this year, but I just have a bad feeling about this one. Iowa only returns 9 starters total, the fewest in the conference, and they will have to replace American hero Ricky Stanzi with junior James Vandenberg. I don't really have any concrete analysis for this one; Michigan will drop a road game (if not 2 road games), and I think this is one of them. Iowa seems to do well when expectations are low, and after losing their 5 games last year by 7, 1, 4, 3, and 3 points respectively, I think chances are they turn it around this year even if the team isn't necessarily better than last year. Iowa has never beaten Michigan three times in a row, but I think that trend is finally broken this year...Michigan drops a frustrating one, 28-17.

Illinois: As horrible of a coach as Ron Zook is, this is another dangerous road game for Michigan. As entertaining as last year's game was, I think we will not see nearly the same offensive production in this game. Illinois returns 6 starters on defense, losing Corey Liuget and Clay nurse on the line. The Illini should still have some experience here, but one would think it's going to be nearly impossible to replace Liuget this season. Ilinois gave up 23 ppg last year (good for 48th in the country), surprisingly good for a team you'd figure to be much worse. However, the Illini will almost certainly give up a few more points this year; Illinois will not be able to replace the production of Liuget and MLB Martez Wilson (and Nurse, to a much lesser extent).

The offensive side of the ball is where the Illini worry me. Despite being very much of a project passing the ball, Nathan Scheelhaase developed into a dangerous dual threat QB as a freshman last season, and he figures to only get better. The Illini lose Mikel Leshoure, an admittedly pretty huge loss, but Jason Ford should do alright as the top guy (he ran for 480 yards last season at rate of 4.8 yards per carry), and Scheelhaase will carry the ball a lot anyway (868 yards and 5 TD's last season). AJ Jenkins is also back catching passes for the Illini after a pretty good 2010 (56 receptions, 746 yards, and 7 TD's).

Like the Iowa game, I could easily see Michigan winning it, but I just think that Michigan will have trouble containing Scheelhaase. Michigan wins in a number of alternate universes and/or pick sets, but in this one, they lose 21-38, dropping the Wolverines to 7-3.

Nebraska: This is the first game where I feel the Wolverines are probably outmatched. Nebraska showed signs of weakness near the end of last season, when they lost 3 of their last 4 to Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and Washington (in addition to an inexplicably bad loss to Texas in October). Much of this can be pinned on the health of Taylor Martinez, who was pretty much lightning in a bottle until the Texas game. While Nebraska fans have much of the same concerns about Martinez that Michigan fans do about Denard, the Nebraska offense should be better if Martinez can simply stay healthy. Star tailback Roy Helu is now in Mike Shanahan's offense in Washington, but Rex Burkhead almost ran for a 1,000 yards as his backup last year, averaging 5.5 yards per carry. None of Nebraska's receivers really put up big numbers, but Brandon Kinnie and tight end Kyler Reed are the best returning targets, putting up 5 and 8 TD's respectively last year. Martinez will improve as a passer, but it's unclear by how much, especially if he's forced to continue to carry the ball so many times. Sound familiar?

On the other hand, the defense is Nebraska's bread and butter. Nebraska returns 7 starters from a unit that gave up 17.4 ppg last year. They return three pre-season all-conference types--one in each position group--in DT Jared Crick, MLB Lavonte David, and CB Alfonzo Dennard. This team is talented and well-coached, and although their number went down from '09 to '10 after Suh's departure, they are still a very good defense and certainly one of the best in the conference, if not the best.

Michigan will have a hard time containing Martinez (much like Scheelhaase), and the Huskers will score enough points to come out of Ann Arbor with a relatively comfortable victory. Michigan loses 31-17.

Ohio State: As important as the MSU game is, this one is about a million times more important. According to what I have so far, Michigan will be 7-4 coming into The Game. OSU likely won't be as good as they have been, and they could come into this meeting with 3 losses. Like Michigan, OSU is very much a high-variance team as far as what their best case and worst case scenarios look like this year (of course, OSU's "best case" is much better than Michigan's).

A lot rides on the quarterback situation (understatement of the century), a situation which is still not settled but has been whittled down to two candidates in freshman Braxton Miller and Joe "Methusela" Bauserman. I previewed the Buckeye quarterbacks earlier this summer, so my thoughts are already out there. I think Bauserman takes the first snap, but Miller will eventually take over, much like in 2008 when Pryor eventually took over after Todd Boeckmann started the season as the starter after taking the Buckeyes to the BCS title game in 2007. In the wide receiver corps, the Buckeyes have a lot of talent in guys like Verlon Reed, Philly Brown, etc. but not many of them are proven. DeVier Posey is the top target, and he will of course be available for the Buckeyes in the Michigan game after he starts the season serving out a 5-game suspension. Jake Stoneburner is a pretty decent talent at tight end but when was the last time the Buckeyes really utilized the tight end position? I'm not sure that this is the year. In the same vein, the Buckeyes will have Dan Herron back for this one, and after him the Buckeyes boast a stable of talented backs that can fill in here and there in a pinch.

Defensively, the Buckeyes only return 4 starters; however, this will be another good defense for OSU, and it will have to be because Fickell and Co. will depend lean on it. OSU loses a number of big names (Rolle, Homan, Hines, Chekwa, and Heyward), but they will reload. Will the defense be as good as last year? I'm not sure, but they will still be pretty good, and definitely top 2 in the conference. Nathan Williams and John Simon on the ends should make for a formidable pash rush, and Garrett Goebel and former kind of Michigan target Jonathan Hankins should be at least okay (with Hankins seeming to get some hype in Buckeye circles this offseason). The Buckeyes replace the linebackers with Andrew Sweat, Etienne Sabino, and Storm Klein. There is a lot of talent there, and Buckeye fans seem to be pretty excited about all three, particularly the potential of Sabino and Klein. Sweat seems like a guy who will be your standard, dependable tackle machine; however, I'm not sure that the other two positions are as sure of a thing as many Buckeye fans seem to think. Sabino and Klein were both 4-star recruits, yet they haven't done much of anything thus far in their careers. Sabino even took last year off, taking a redshirt because he saw a stacked depth chart and a chance to start in 2011 while not wasting a year of eligibility. The Buckeyes are talented in the secondary as well, but losing Chekwa, Hines, and Torrence will hurt. One figures that any growing pains should be mostly behind this unit by the time The Game rolls around, but you never know.

I had a tough time picking Michigan to beat State on the road, but this one will be an even tougher pick to make (not that there's really anything at stake here other than the risk of being wrong)...there's no doubt that the difference in talent between the two programs is not insignificant. Michigan will narrow the gap in the coming years, but just look at Ohio State's talent and depth and you can see why they've been the powerhouse that they've been for most of the last decade. At the same time, much of OSU's talent is unproven and inexperienced, and that is not even mentioning the fact that Luke Fickell will be roaming the sidelines and not Jim Tressel. Luke Fickell is not Jim Tressel. Say that out loud, it feels pretty good.

By the time this game rolls around, Michigan will have been hardened by the Big Ten schedule and some tough losses (which can be piled unceremoniously on top of the experiences of the last few seasons and the general scrapheap of futility and ruined Saturdays). The new starters will have a season of experience under their belts, and with guys with good football minds like Mattison and Borges instructing them on a weekly basis, it's difficult not to envision a team that is much better, tactically and fundamentally, on November 26th than it was on September 3rd.

As talented as OSU is, Michigan fields a wealth of talent of its own. A strong offensive line and group of receivers, as well as a talented group of tailbacks of which hopefully one will emerge as "the guy" (Toussaint?), will form an above average group by the end of the season, even with the subtle shift in offensive philosophy. Oh, and there's Denard too. If Al Borges was able to turn Jason Campbell into a first round pick, I think he can do some things with Denard Robinson.

The defense is of course another story, but there are a few things that encourage me: 1) A year of Greg Mattison's coaching 2) another season of experience for guys like Cam (and Thomas) Gordon, Courtney Avery, Kenny Demens, etc. 3) a Buckeye offense which will have serious issues at the quarterback and wide receiver positions 4) Hoke's/Michigan's desire to win this game. Yes, I realize the last point is completely intangible and doesn't really win games (execution does), but it's there and you can't deny it. Seven in a row? Has it really been that long? You know that the preparation for this will be thorough and intense, and the desire to win among the seniors will be at an all-time high. For three hours, Troy Woolfolk will think he's Marlin Jackson, Kenny Demens will think he's David Harris, Junior Hemingway will think he's Braylon Edwards.

More on this later, but for now I will say that Michigan will beat Ohio State. I won't even give you a score because it doesn't even matter. Michigan will win. It won't quite be 1969 in its significance, but it will be the biggest win since the 2003 contest, and the argument for it being the most important win since the 1998 Rose Bowl victory is a cogent one.

That means that Michigan finishes 8-4, which is good for the Outback Bowl or something. Honestly, I went into this thinking possibly 7-5 (which I could still easily see happening if you flip either of the Northwestern or MSU predictions), but it was so very hard for me to predict that Michigan would get off to a start similar to the ones they had in 2009 and 2010 only to fall flat on their faces come conference play. 8-4 is my prediction, though, and I'm sticking to it (and if it comes to fruition, with wins against MSU and OSU...Brady Hoke for President?).

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Bonus Predictions:

• Denard carries the ball no more than 180 times, and definitely no more than 200 (down from last year's 256).
• Shaw runs for 800 yards, Toussaint for 600, and Smith for 400. Denard for 1,100 yards. 
• Hemingway steps it up in a big way, picking up the slack in Stonum's absence: 60-70ish rec., 950 yards, and 7 touchdowns. 
• Kenny Demens leads the team in tackles. 
• The defense will improve to top 70 in total defense, while also shaving a few points off of their mark of 35.2 ppg in 2010...31.0 ppg sounds like reasonable shot in the dark (Minnesota gave up 33 ppg and Northwestern gave up 29.0 ppg last year). 
• Devin Gardner will be a significant factor in at least one win this season. 
• Leaders division champion: Wisconsin, Legends: Nebraska--Big Ten Champion: Wisconsin
• Other conference champions--ACC: Florida State, Big East: West Virginia, PAC 12: Oregon, SEC: Alabama, Big 12: Oklahoma
• BCS Title Game: Oklahoma vs. Alabama--Alabama wins second title in 3 years

via Mike DeSimone