Showing posts with label Joe Bauserman. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Joe Bauserman. Show all posts

Thursday, September 15, 2011

Keep Your Enemies Closer: Week 2

Here we are at Week 2, where the Buckeyes squared off against another supposed minnow from the state of Ohio in the form of the Toledo Rockets. While Toledo is not nearly as bad as Akron, they still should not have posed a threat to the Buckeyes; unfortunately for Coach Fickell and the Buckeyes, that was not how it turned out on the field. The Buckeyes (particularly Bauserman/Miller) will have the chance to "prove themselves," but this week was not the time for that. At least, it shouldn't have been. 


As a quick prefatory note, I just want to say that these reviews will be far from perfect. After all, I am not a Buckeye fan and cannot reasonably be expected to know the ins and outs of the Buckeye roster, practice buzz, injury notes, etc. as well as the average OSU fan. With that said, I noticed some talk about my discussion of the OSU tailbacks at the O-Zone. In the interest of accuracy, I will say that I wasn't aware that Hall was lined up to be the starter pre-suspension, and I'm not sure if I simply forgot or didn't know about Berry's hamstring issues, but, either way, I didn't know that he [Berry] would've been next in line had he been healthy (hence my designation of Hyde as "Herron Understudy #1"). Mea culpa. As the season goes along and I become more familiar with the roster, I hope that I'll able to be more precise in my analysis. In the end, though, I'm just a guy writing about what I see. I am by no means an expert and I shouldn't be treated as such. With that longer than expected note behind me, let's continue with the second installment of "Keep Your Enemies Closer."


The Offense 
The Buckeyes would still be without a number of key contributors in this one (namely Jordan Hall, in addition to the suspensions levied before the season), but there's still no excuse for the lackluster performance in this game. There were certainly some bright spots, but this game represented the picking of the scab that is Joe Bauserman as OSU's starting quarterback. I'm sure Joe Bauserman is a nice guy, but the Buckeyes won't get where they want to go with Joe Bauserman. Craig Krenzel he is not. 


Naturally, the most interesting issue that needs to be discussed from the get go is the Braxton Miller's role/lack thereof in this game. Miller stood on the sidelines the entire game, Waiting for Godot  Playing Time as Joe Bauserman opted for conservative checkdown after checkdown. The potential theories behind Miller's lack of playing time are many, and it's not worth speculating about the exact reason as opposed to the decision's effect and implications. Will Luke Fickell continue to go with the older, less talented Bauserman if he struggles in the coming weeks as OSU gets ready to face teams with BCS talent? That is indeed the question, and I fall unequivocally in the Play Miller camp. Despite the age difference, I sincerely believe that there is very little that Bauserman can do that Miller cannot. Of course, the previous sentence does not take into account the other half of the Great Mass of Infinite Possibilities also known as "mistakes," which Miller would ostensibly commit more of if he become starter. 


After a nice return from Jaamal Berry (who, judging from the burst he showed, seems to have recovered nicely from a hamstring injury), OSU marched down the field methodically but with very little help for now starter Carlos Hyde, who went for runs of 0, 4, and 1 on the 7 play drive. To be fair, a pair of defenders met him unblocked at the LOS on the first one, the second was a toss sweep which the Toledo defense flowed to fairly well, and there was just nothing doing in the last one. Bauserman, on the other hand, came out firing on a successful drive. Like last week, Verlon Reed was an early beneficiary of the gameplan. He carried the ball once on a token end around for a nice gain of 12 and added a reception of 13 yards two plays later. Later on, Bauserman would hit a ridiculously wide open Stoneburner in the seam for the touchdown. Bauserman had all day and fired a pass that was just a touch off, but Stoneburner made a one-handed catch that verged on nonchalant, almost to the point that it seemed as if he could have just caught it normally. Either way, Stoneburner's increased production should be a point of immense delight to OSU fans who have been wondering if the tight end position would ever become relevant again. Stoneburner did balance out the spectacular touchdown catch with a Braylon-esque drop on 4th and 3. In the grand scheme of things it didn't mean much, but a drop is a drop. Still, Stoneburner looks like he'll be a primary target going forward, which is a good sign because he's a pretty talented player. He ended the day with 4 receptions for 43 yards and the aforementioned TD grab. 


Stoneburner had his touchdown and freshman Devin Smith--filling in for Corey "Philly" Brown, who went down with a pretty painful looking injury in the second quarter--filled in nicely, reeling in two receptions for 67 yards. Reed pitched in two receptions for 23, and Carlos Hyde flashed some receiving ability with 4 for 28 yards, as Bauserman looked to him in the flat on more than one occasion. Despite the absence of DeVier Posey and the injury of Philly Brown, the Buckeyes are still stocked at the receiver position, albeit really, really young. That could hurt them in the next few weeks as the defenders lining up across from them become better and the guys coming at Bauserman become bigger and faster, but it didn't throughout these first two games.

The running game, on the other hand, was a major disappointment. The OSU line didn't seem to get a lot of push throughout most of the day (from what I could tell based upon one viewing of the game, at least). Hyde was the primary ball carrier, with 20 carries for 76 yards, including one long touchdown run of 36 yards in which he showcased some solid vision and speed by hitting a crease created by good blocks from J.B. Shugarts and Jack Mewhort (he had another short TD run inthe 3rd quarter as well). Hyde got through the line, saw the daylight and ran to it. This was one of the few big plays on the day, as playing the "take out that one run and then see what his YPC is" leads us to a fairly grim figure of 2.1 YPC. This is not good. Rod Smith didn't do much better, carrying seven times for 24 yards and a long of nine. Once again, though, Smith put the ball on the ground (fumbling on OSU's penultimate drive), and it seems that he is building up a medical history of fumbleitis just as fast as Stephen Hopkins seems to be doing in Ann Arbor. Honestly, Smith probably shouldn't get many carries going forward, and especially if Hall is cleared to play soon. The announcers compared him to Eddie George at one point, which...okay. They're both big guys but the comparison ends there; there is a reason he is behind four other backs, although he is but a little freshman so there's still hope for him yet.


Toss sweeps were unsuccessful on a couple occasions, and Hyde was left with nowhere to go as Toledo defenders were able to knife through the wash like butter on their way to Hyde. The line's inability to just dominate Toledo in the trenches is a little worrisome, but the standard caveat about suspensions and whatnot (Adams) goes here. Although I don't think that Miami is very good, it will be interesting to see how the OSU line responds when exposed to a significant increase in athleticism and talent (whether those talented and athletic defenders can actually play defense and do things like make tackles and shed blocks in another story entirely) will be interesting. Toledo's front seven was obviously undersized and overmatched on paper but they did well in holding the Buckeyes to 112 rushing yards and 3.4 YPC. Pass protection, on the other hand, was generally pretty good (I don't believe that Bauserman was sacked a single time), but Bauserman's relative immobility is an issue when paired with a line that isn't up to normal standards at this point. 


Bauserman showcased his arm strength yet again on one play late in the second quarter when he heaved an absolute bomb down the field to Verlon Reed which ended up drawing a pass interference penalty. Arm strength is certainly not Bauserman's problem. If OSU can figure out their run blocking then that could really open up some more play action looks down the field (OSU has gone PA a number of times in their first two games). Bauserman, like Uncle Rico, can really throw that ball over them mountains if the offensive staff would just let him do it more often. How advisable an extremely vertical offense led by Joe Bauserman paired with inexperienced receivers might be is unclear, but what is clear is that arm strength is by far his biggest asset, and maybe it could help the running game if utilized in the correct proportion and circumstances. At the same time, he was pretty inaccurate at times despite having more than enough time to settle and throw. The boo birds came out early in the fourth quarter after Bauserman tossed two incomplete passes in a row en route to a three and out. I'm not sure how long the OSU fanbase will rationally tolerate Bauserman's existence as the leader of the offense, and I'm not sure how long Fickell will either given that this season is basically a one-year audition for him. I think you play Miller and live with the mistakes while assuming that his talent will eventually begin to override his youth, thus making him a better option in the long run. But, that's just me (I don't think I'm alone, though). 


The offense in a nutshell: Bauserman is not good, OL didn't perform like an OSU line should against a MAC team, and Hyde is decent but no Hall/Herron and definitely still reminds me of Lydell Ross (which probably isn't a great thing) too much to feel excessively positive about him as a player. This all becomes moot when Hall and Herron return anyway, but whatever. 

The Defense
Despite the final score, I wouldn't be too worried about the defense if I was an OSU fan. The Buckeye defense shut down the run, giving up only 46 yards on 30 carries. The Buckeyes were quick to the ball regardless the type of run, and the interior of the DL was stout once again. I was especially impressed with Etienne Sabino, who made a couple of plays that, to make a comparison with a Michigan player, reminded me of Brandin Hawthorne's slashing TFL against Notre Dame this past week. Sabino looked fast and quick to diagnose plays, a good sign for Buckeye fans as he is still relatively unproven despite a good bit of recruiting hype. 


For the most part OSU seemed to come out in a 4-2-5 look, with three guys on the line in a three point stance and one guy standing up on the edge a good amount of the time. OSU shut down the zone read pretty well...I can't remember it getting more than at most 3 or 4 yards. The linebackers stayed home and attacked when they saw the ball come out of the tailback's belly or stay in the QB's hands. Given Michigan's success with the zone read against Notre Dame, this is of particular relevance. Of course, Denard Robinson and whatever tailback Michigan trots out (hopefully Toussaint is in one piece and ready to go by The Game) are much better than Toledo's tandem, but that is a match-up that neither fanbase should think about for quite some time. 


Jonathan Hankins impressed me on one sack in the first half in which he flashed a surprising amount of agility and quicks in completely blowing by the left guard to get to Dantin. For a guy who was supposedly "slow played" by Michigan in the recruiting process for essentially being out of shape (see "too fat") despite having obvious talent, I was blown away by his quickness on this play. If he didn't play for Ohio State I'd say that he'd be a solid candidate for the elusive and always hilarious fat guy touchdown, but I guess I'll just stick to hoping that Will Campbell will drop in coverage against Eastern and return a pick for six like he's Ed Reed. A guy can dream.

First Team All-Awesome Name MLB Storm Klein had a nice pick as well, and did a solid job in getting to his spot while tracking the QB's eyes, and then, ultimately, actually making the catch. He looks like he should be another good linebacker for the Buckeyes, and yes, I am very jealous of the talent and consistent production from the LB corps for the last several years or so down there. Having guys that are disciplined, fast, and well-coached? What a novelty. I honestly have no idea how much Vrabel has or hasn't done with them thus far, but on the surface I'd say so far so good.

The only major issue on the day was a few big plays here and there. I didn't envy the Buckeye defensive backs, as defending Eric Page seemed like trying to catch a fly with a pair of tweezers. That guy is agile and fast, and I don't doubt that he has a career in the NFL ahead of him (if not simply as a punt/kick returner). The play he scored on in late in the first quarter (the 66 yard screen) was just a perfect combination of execution on the part of Page's blocking and pure, unadulterated speed on Page's part. Andrew Sweat flies in and gets blocked out of the play just enough that his tackle attempt left him flailing at Page's feet, and Page was able to enter hyperspace down the sidelines as he zoomed past Orhian Johnson (I think?) and outpaced CJ Barnett. Page can really go, so no shame there. Still, Sweat could've done better here, but the secondary could have better to clean up the mistake as well.

Other points came: a) after a blocked punt lead to a short field for Toledo and b) a touchdown after a 44 yard pass that took the Rockets to first and goal. In short, OSU's defense is still good, although the big plays and Toledo's final drive--in which they marched down the field from their own 28 all the way to the Ohio State 17 before the drive fizzled out--are things to improve upon. Also something to keep in mind: the Buckeyes were without Nathan Williams for the entire game, and John Simon didn't play much of the second half.


Special Teams 
Jaamal Berry looked good all day on kick returns, bringing three out for an average of 22.0 per returns and a long of 28. He seemed plenty quick so it seemed to me like any hamstring issues are no longer extant. In the same vein, Chris Fields had a brilliant 69 yard punt return for a touchdown in which Ryan Shazier decided to make a cameo appearance as Terry Tate, Office Linebacker. Fields brought it down the field in a flash, with little to no lateral movement, with the help of good blocking and good speed on his part (not great coverage helped somewhat too). The return from Fields is good news, especially in light of the roadrunner known as Philly Brown's injury (which didn't look too good). 




On the other hand, OSU had a punt blocked, missed a field goal (putting Drew Basil at 0/2 on the year), and was unprepared on Toledo's two point conversion on their first touchdown. Has Basil simply been unlucky or will this be the first year in a while that OSU won't have an obvious asset at the PK position? Who knows...it's way too early and way too small of a sample size to tell. Let's see how he does on the road this week. Kick coverage was decent except for one big return for 42 yards from Eric Page. This is the second week in a row that OSU has allowed a return of 40+ yards, so this will definitely be something to work on for Fickell and Co. 




Well?

This was certainly not an ideal win for the Buckeyes but college football isn't always ideal. As an outsider, the main points I took away from this game are: a) Bauserman is not very accurate or mobile (and seemed to lose confidence as the game went on), and without an elite running back behind him the offense will have some problems and b) the defense was fine minus a few big plays. In short, nothing to see here and ALL IS WELL. Well, not quite, particularly if Fickell sticks with Bauserman (which is a mistake in my opinion, both for his own chances at throwing off the interim label and OSU's chances at winning the conference), but OSU has been here before (e.g., 2009 Navy) and been just fine. Nevertheless, next week will be interesting.

Tuesday, September 6, 2011

Keep Your Enemies Closer: Week 1

Just a general programming note, but throughout the season this is what the schedule on here should look like (assuming there's time to get everything done each week):

Monday: Michigan game column
Tuesday: Review of Ohio State game
Wednesday: TBD
Thursday: "What To Watch"
Friday: Game preview type thing

Again, that's an extremely tentative schedule but is probably a good bet for what to expect until the end of the season. With that said, I'd like to take Tuesdays from here on out to take a look at the Buckeyes, giving my general impressions of the team, from personnel to play calling to whatever else I find to be interesting or relevant to Michigan. I got the idea from reading The Ozone's rundowns in their "Michigan Monday" feature...here's an example from last season. While their observations aren't always expressed in shining prose, I often found their perspectives useful, and in that vein I think it would be a useful exercise to scout the Buckeyes as the season goes along. So, we'll start with this past Saturday's opener in Columbus against Akron (here's a preview of the Zips from 11W). Just as any considerations of Michigan's hopes gleaned from the Western game shouldn't be leaned upon too heavily, the same applies with OSU's meeting with Akron.

The Offense


It's hard to talk about the Buckeye offense without starting at the quarterback position. As expected, the geriatric Joe Bauserman got the start, and actually played quite a long time before being spelled by Braxton Miller. In fact, Miller didn't come in until the first drive of the second quarter, and then not again until 5 minutes into the third (after which he played the rest of the way). Joe finished with an efficient stat line, going 12/16 on the day with 163 yards and 3 touchdowns, as well as one touchdown on the ground. Miller finished 8/12 with 130 yards and a touchdown of his own to freshman Devin Smith.

The Buckeyes started on their own 26 in drive numero uno and they played it as if nothing had changed and Jim Tressel still walked the sidelines. On four out of five plays to start the drive, OSU went with running plays, calling Dan Herron Understudy #1 Carlos Hyde's number each time. Hyde went for 2, 8, 3, and 5 yards respectively with these carries, with a Bauserman to Stoneburner coming in on the second play. Bauserman then showed some ability to get the ball downfield, connecting with Verlon reed for a 28 yard play, followed by a Rod Smith run and what appears to be a broken play in which Bauserman does his best Denard impression. Apparently, the tailback went the wrong way, and Bauserman was forced to wing it; surprisingly, he did pretty well, looking positively Krenzelesque as he ran it in for the score from 15 yards out. Bauserman is no Pryor, or Smith, or Miller when it comes to mobility, but he seems to be close to on par with Krenzel (both are about the same size). He did show some nice mobility on a passing play in the second quarter, taking off for 9 yards when everyone was covered, just barely avoiding a defensive lineman. The offensive line gave Bauserman and Miller all day to throw and ample running room for Hyde and Smith, but that's to be expected against Akron (even without Mike Adams).

The Ohio State running back situation is not too dissimilar from ours...for the first 5 games in Herron's absence, at least. OSU has a stable of talented backs to work with, but just as Michigan seemed to narrow things down to a predominantly Shaw and Toussaint-heavy attack, OSU primarily deployed Carlos Hyde and Rod Smith on Saturday.

Both were impressive enough given the circumstances (not only did they get four full quarters--the novelty!--but they got it against Akron). Both backs provide size that Michigan's group doesn't seem to bring outside of Hopkins; Hyde stands at 6'0'' 238 and Smith at 6'3'' 230, and both are underclassmen. Those are two big backs. Hyde looked big and fast enough (he couldn't quite gain the corner on one 25-yard run in the 2nd quarter) and did well to keep his legs moving to fall forward for the extra yard from time to time. While some Buckeye fans have made the relatively underwhelming comparison to Lydell Ross, Hyde looked solid in this one. Again, as good as they looked they are simply keeping the backfield warm for Boom Herron. Rod Smith also fumbled the ball in the red zone, a point which I'm sure didn't please Luke Fickell. I wouldn't be surprised to see some of the other backs get some action next week as a result, especially if Jordan Hall--who was supposed to be the starter until he got suspended--comes back soon. Hall is an entirely different back too, standing at a diminutive 5'9'' 195.

The quarterbacks also carried the ball a little bit (in addition to Bauserman's aforementioned glacial-speed TD run), with Bauserman going 6 carries for 32 and Miller 6 for 30. Like I said, Bauserman is certainly not fast but he can run a little bit if he needs to, but then again this was the Akron game. Miller had one rush for 12 yards, but other than that he wasn't that successful on the ground, and he didn't need to be. Miller's first collegiate play was a QB Draw, so maybe that's a signal that the Buckeye staff will use his running ability in a way that Pryor's was not.

Overall, I was pretty impressed with Bauserman's arm strength (as a former baseball player, he's got at least that going for him), and he seemed to not be overwhelmed by the responsibility of leading the team. He seemed to favor Stoneburner and Verlon Reed the most. Of course, I said this about Stoneburner just last week:
Jake Stoneburner is a pretty decent talent at tight end but when was the last time the Buckeyes really utilized the tight end position? I'm not sure that this is the year.
Naturally, Stoneburner reeled in 3 touchdowns (after having 2 all of last year), all from Bauserman. This might be the result of a Posey-less receiving corps, but Stoneburner was by far the star of the day and Bauserman's favorite target. Everybody knew that Stoneburner could play, but Ohio State has not used their tight ends effectively in quite a while...then again, I'm not sure if they've had a pass-catching threat like Stoneburner in several years. Stoneburner's three touchdown receptions were from 28, 11, and 2 yards out. It'll be interesting to track Stoneburner's production going forward; obviously it won't remain constant after this performance, but we'll see if Bauserman/Miller still lean on him as much once Posey gets back and young guys like Devin Smith and Evan Spencer mature a little bit (as well as other inexperienced wideouts i.e., Verlon Reed and Philly Brown). Spencer managed to make probably the catch of the week on a pretty horrid pass from Miller in the 4th...it was his only catch of the day but he seems like a talented young receiver that could do some things as the season progresses.

The Buckeyes were a solid 8/15 on third downs on the way to amassing 517 total yards of offense (293 passing, 224 rushing). Only one turnover on the day (the Smith fumble), and a relatively penalty-free day is something to be happy about for such a young team (3 penalties for 29 yards). The Buckeyes ran the ball 51 times compared to 28 passes...TRESSELBALL LIVES.

The Defense 


Watching Ohio State play defense for the last at least six or seven seasons has been an envy-filled affair. Year after year, Ohio State has fielded defenses with future NFL talent, with good pass rushers, consistent and talented linebackers, and top level talents in the secondary. With the state of Ohio as talent-rich as it is, it's not hard to see how OSU was able to accomplish this, particularly with their recent unadulterated dominance of their home state throughout the RR years. Once again, I know this was Akron--a bad, bad football team--but a shutout is a shutout.

Ohio State was of course without the services of Solomon Thomas (suspended for the first five games), as well as top corner Travis Howard (who was suspended for this one along with Hall and Corey Brown). These losses come on top of the losses to the NFL, which were significant as they've been nearly every year. Ohio State lost big names like Cameron Heyward, Chimdi Chekwa, Ross Homan, Brian Rolle, Jermale Hines, and Devon Torrence. However, it looks like they will reload just fine, and despite returning 3 less starters Ohio State figures to have a much, much better defense than the Wolverines once again.

The Buckeyes held the Zips to under 100 yards of offense, while also sacking the quarterback 5 times and coming up with 1 interception. Akron only managed to muster up 5 first downs, while also going a putrid 2/13 on third downs. They weren't able to do much of anything on the ground or in the air, and even without Howard, corners Bradley Roby and Dominic Clarke didn't seem to be challenged at any point (same goes for safeties Orhian Johnson and CJ Barnett). On one shot downfield in the second quarter, Clarke (who was previously the #3 corner before Howard's suspension), was in perfect position to break the pass up. Akron's only success of the day come on the last drive of the half, in which they managed to reach the Ohio State 24 before missing a 41-yard field goal. The drive largely happened on the back of two plays--both Clayton Moore passes--of 33 and 11 yards.

OSU's 5 sacks came from Darryl Baldwin, Etienne Sabino/J.T. Moore, Michael Bennett, Nate Ebner, and Ryan Shazier, and there were a number of hurries that were very nearly sacks. WLB Andrew Sweat notched the only interception of the day, picking off Clayton Moore in the second quarter, on a nice play in which he reeled in a tipped ball near the sideline while managing to keep his feet inbounds.

All in all, the defense looked stout as expected; nothing came through the middle and when the ball went elsewhere the Buckeye defense got there fast. This unit won't be tested next week either, unfortunately, and might not even be tested until the State game, depending upon whether or not you consider Miami and Colorado tests at this point in time (I don't).

Special Teams


There's not too much to discuss here, but...speedster Philly Brown had one kickoff return (to open the second half), which he took for 44 yards down the left sideline after an impressive spin move. The guy can fly, so I wouldn't be surprised to see him take a few to the house this year. On punts, Brown, Chris Fields, and Devin Smith all took turns, with the longest return being one of 17 yards (also from Philly).

PK Drew Basil was 6/6 on extra points but missed his only field goal attempt of the day from 40 yards out (just wide right). Punter Ben Buchanan had a solid day, with an average of 42 yards a punt on 3 tries (he had a long of 49). On kickoffs, Akron's Antoine Russell did have one return of 42 yards, but take that one out and his average drops from 18.8 to 11.0 yards per return.

Other than the one field goal miss and the bad coverage on the one return, the Buckeyes should have some solid special teams play once again this season. This will be crucial down the road when the offense needs the field position to score against better teams.

2011 Ohio State Schedule


September 3: OSU 42, Akron 0 (1-0)
September 10: Toledo
September 17: @ Miami
September 24: Colorado
October 1: Michigan State
October 8: @ Nebraska
October 15: @ Illinois
October 29: Wisconsin
November 5: Indiana
November 12: @ Purdue
November 19: Penn State
November 26: @ Michigan

Thursday, September 1, 2011

What To Watch: Week 1

A pretty self-explanatory concept: I'll run through the Big Ten match-ups each week with a blurb of varying length and a prediction that's doomed to be incredibly wrong. If you're debating whether or not to watch football this weekend or to watch ALL THE FOOTBALL...I suggest the latter, and here's some help. Home teams in bold.

Around the Big Ten

-Michigan-Western Michigan (3:30 ET): I already had my say in my predictions post, but Michigan rolls. Carder is a good quarterback but I seem to remember similar worries in 2009 going into the Western game about Tim Hiller, and we all know how that turned out.
-Wisconsin-UNLV (Thursday 9/1, 8 ET): The Badgers host UNLV, a team that went 2-11 last year (Wisconsin also played them last year, winning 41-21). This should be a fairly easy win for Wisconsin, and it will be worth watching just to see how Russell Wilson looks as the new signal caller for the Badgers. Montee Ball and James White should rack up enough yards to be able to take most of the second half off. 
-Michigan State-Youngstown State (7:30 ET, BTN): Another probable blowout game (if not then the Spartans have issues). Michigan State's issues on the offensive line are well-documented, so if the Spartans struggle in any way to run the ball or generally get wherever they want to on the field then those said issues will linger and intensify as the level of competition goes up. 
-Ohio State-Akron (12:00 ET): This will be another blowout, but could be a game where the Buckeyes come out slow, only to finish with a score that is somewhat unimpressive but still a comfortable win. Bauserman has gotten the nod to receive the first snap but Miller figures to be in the mix for some playing time. Obviously Miller has a long way to go (otherwise he'd be the starter right now over a frankly unimpressive player like Bauserman), so it will be interesting to see if the fanbase begins to clamor for Miller if he shows Bauserman up in these first two cupcake games. 
NU senior quarterback Dan Persa
-Northwestern-Boston College (12:00 ET): Finally, a legitimately interesting matchup...is Dan 
Persa healthy? The progress he has made in the rehabilitation of an injured Achilles will determine
 how NU's season unfolds. BC is not exactly anything special, but they do return 9 starters on 
a pretty good defense (only gave up 18.5 ppg in 2010). BC will be without star tailback Montel Harris for this one, who is out with a knee injury...this combined with a young quarterback who had a pretty terrible 2010 means that NU should have a decent shot to win this one, even if Persa isn't 100%. 
-Indiana State-Penn State (12:00 ET, BTN): Like the OSU game, shouldn't be competitive but worth keeping an eye on how the quarterbacks look (i.e., McGloin vs. Bolden). 
-Middle Tennessee-Purdue (12:00 ET, BTN): Purdue is not going to be very good this year, but Middle Tennessee was 6-7 last year, and they return a mere 3 starters on defense. While the Boilermakers don't have much at all in terms of offensive firepower, if they're going to produce then this is the game you'd think they'd do it. With Henry out, it's worth keeping an eye on how Marve performs. 
-Chattanooga-Nebraska (12:00 ET): Another snoozer. Why are you watching this game? Don't watch this game. 
-Minnesota-USC (3:30 ET): This might be worth watching three or four years down the road after a few years of Kill...not right now, though. This isn't the USC of old, but Minnesota is even worse than Purdue. The Gophers kept it sort of close on paper last year (losing 21-32), but by now Barkley should have metamorphosed into the standard laser-tossing USC future first round pick quarterback that people on the West Coast have been waiting to see. 
-Illinois-Arkansas State: If you'll remember, Arkansas State was of one two non-conference creampuffs to give an actually pretty good Iowa team a scare in 2009 (Iowa won 24-21)...ASU returns most of a terrible defense, as well as almost all of their primary offensive skill players. Any sort of struggle will reflect extremely poorly on the Illini, particularly on the defensive side of the ball as they attempt to replace Martez Wilson and Corey Liuget. 
Iowa-Tennessee Tech (12:00 ET): Another game you shouldn't be watching in even the most dire of circumstances. 
-Indiana-Ball State (Lucas Oil Stadium, 7:00 ET): Not sure why this clash of the titans of the state of Indiana is being played in the home of the Colts, but it is. Indiana being Indiana, this could easily be one of the Big Ten's losses this weekend. I will say that I like Kevin Wilson, and I think it would be pretty cool if Indiana at least became semi-competitive. 
Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin III (via SI)
Around the Country
-TCU-Baylor (8:00 ET): TCU heads to Waco to face a Baylor team that had an okay 2010 (well, pretty good by the standards of the last 10 years or so for them). Baylor returns Robert Griffin III at quarterback, so this could very easily turn out to be the upset of the week if the Horned Frogs aren't careful. TCU is breaking in a new signal caller in Casey Pachall, so we'll see how this one goes. 
-UCLA-Houston (3:30 ET): This isn't a game you're going to watch given that it runs at the same time as the Michigan game, but a loss here could be one of the first nails in the coffin for the Neuheisel era at UCLA. Houston has returned quarterback Case Keenum for one more year after he was knocked out for the year with an ACL injury in the third game against UCLA. 
-Oregon-LSU (Cowboys Stadium, 8:00 ET): One of two huge primetime matchups this weekend. The crowd will most likely be highly pro-LSU, which should make things difficult for the Ducks. Cliff Harris missing this one is a huge loss, however I don't find Jordan Jefferson's absence to be too troubling a proposition for the Tigers. I think the Ducks win the PAC 12, but they won't win this game, as LSU will use the home crowd and their defense (one that is much better than the Auburn defense that stifled Oregon in January) to frustrate the Oregon offensive machine, while manufacturing enough points off of adrenaline and Les Miles's grass-inspired genius. Oregon is a better team in the grand scheme of thing, but being "better" doesn't mean anything when you're standing across the sidelines from a guy like Les Miles, who's about to spin off this planet like Gary Busey at any moment.
-Georgia-Boise State (Georgia Dome, 8:00 ET): As much hype as Boise State gets in this one...do people not remember the last time these two teams faced off? Sure, last time it was in Sanford Stadium, but this one will be played in Atlanta, making it a de facto home game for UGA. UGA returns 7 starters on a defense that 
gave up 22 ppg last year, and they add talented freshman tailback Isaiah Crowell to the mix 
on offense; while I'm not sure that he'll have the impact that Lattimore had for South Carolina last year, he will be a good one and he'll get the chance to prove it early. Aaron Murray is another player that I really like, and he should continue to develop (barring a Henne-esque sophomore slump) even without AJ Green. UGA wins this one with the Georgia Dome crowd behind them and a balanced offensive attack, while also doing enough to stop the run and force Kellen Moore into some mistakes. And thus will end the talk of Boise State's national title hopes in 2011.  
UGA sophomore quarterback Aaron Murray (via Georgia Sports Blog)

Monday, August 29, 2011

Things That May or May Not Happen: Season Predictions


It's game week at last, and so it might as well be time to start locking in some ultimately meaningless predictions. These types are things are just about as pointless as preseason polls, but The permutations are endless, and settling on one prediction is like filling out a single bracket come March Madness. As somebody who usually fills out a few each March, you can conceivably fill out one hundred of those things and still feel good about each and every one of them. This year is another high-variance year; Michigan could come out and look legitimately better as a result of better defensive coaching and another year of experience for a host of underclassmen. However, even if Michigan's improvement is fairly obvious (particularly on the defensive side of the ball), I'm not quite sure that Michigan's record will improve from last year's 7-5 regular season mark.

In short, this is more for my purposes than any black and white determinant of what will/should happen. It's always nice to see where we end up compared with where we thought we'd end up at the beginning. As always, people should keep in mind that Michigan could go 7-5 again while still looking like a much better team. At the same time, it's entirely possible that the Michigan team of the first half of the season and the team of the second half. With that in mind, I'll look at each game and give my thoughts, some general conference predictions, as well as a few others.

Western Michigan: This will be a strange game for me, as it will be the first home game that I won't be in attendance for in a long time (graduating...don't do it). In any case, while hubris does not befit the Michigan Man of late, I think this game should be a slam dunk victory for the Wolverines. WMU is 0-5 against the Wolverines all-time, and I don't think that winless record changes this season. The Broncos return Junior QB Alex Carder, who had a pretty solid year last in 2010 by the numbers: 3,334 yards passing, 30 TD's to 12 INT's, and a 63.1% completion percentage. Carder also proved to be somewhat mobile (relatively), rushing for a little over 400 yards last season.

WMU also returns their top receiver Jordan White, who was granted a 6th year. Honestly, he is probably the only weapon that should register any sort of concern with the defensive staff. His stat line is impressive: he hauled in 10 TD's in 2010 on 94 receptions and 1,378 yards. White isn't a big guy (6'0'' 215), but he seems to produce just fine. WMU does lose their other prolific receiver from last season, Juan Nunez, so it will likely be much easier for teams to focus on White. Other than that, WMU will field a few average backs, in addition to having to replace three of last year's lineman. All the pressure will be on Carder and White.

I don't know if Michigan shuts WMU out, but the result will be very much like the one we saw in 2009...Carder will be running for his life most of the time, and Michigan likely won't show too much on offense with ND coming to town the next week. However, they'll squeeze enough out of the spread remnants of the gameplan, and Denard will have at least one big play (i.e., long touchdown run) on the ground (probably more). Michigan wins 34-7.

Notre Dame: This one, on the other hand, I will be flying in for. Needless to say, the atmosphere will be bizarrely raucous; I can definitely see myself looking around at several points to ask myself if I'm actually in the Big House.

For many years, this game has been a sort of litmus test for the Wolverines. This game is certainly important, but the fact is, ND is one year ahead of us in their program's rebuilding plan under Kelly, and to measure ourselves against them within the context of even this season alone is a little unfair and kind of pointless. Michigan could very easily lose this game and still go on to do good things. Of course, losing this one doesn't affect the Legends standings, so there's that to remember. As a general aside, if somebody asked me "you can only beat two rivals and you have to lose to one, which is the one?", I'd pick ND without hesitation.

Going back to last season, we all remember the sentiment, coming from Michigan and ND fans alike, that we wouldn't have won if Crist had not been forced out for much of the game (hearkening back to the '04 MSU game, in which Drew Stanton was destroyed by one LaMarr Woodley). Crist is once again the starter after an extended battle with the less touted Tommy Rees. After the Michigan game, though, Crist was having a decent season, until he was eventually knocked out with an injury early on in the Tulsa game. Rees then took over and led the Irish to four straight wins (Utah, Army, USC, and Miami), but people quickly forget that the Notre Dame defense improved upon its performance significantly in that span. Rees is a ice backup but Crist is definitely better.

Notre Dame finally loses Armando Allen and the consistently underwhelming Robert Hughes, bringing back formerly highly-touted Cierre Wood and Jonas Gray. However, ND returns 9 of their top 10 OL, which may or may not mitigate the lack of quality (or proven quality) among the RB corps. Of course, ND returns future first rounder Michael Floyd, Theo "Chronicles of" Riddick Jr., and TJ Jones (whom you may remember for this little moment).

Defensively, ND will be stout. Everybody knows about Manti Te'o, and Senior safety Harrison Smith is a guy who has been around and produced (93 tackles last season). The rest of ND's front 7 will be strong, and that's without even mentioning the potential impact of true freshman Aaron Lynch.

This one is really tough to predict, but I'll just go ahead and say it: Michigan probably won't win this game. It will be close, but Michigan got a performance for the ages from Denard and still only barely won. Sure, the game is at home and the atmosphere should be pretty electric, but that only goes so far. ND's offense doesn't scare me too much (I'm sure Cam Gordon is happy that Kyle Rudolph is gone). Crist is a good quarterback and he can occasionally beat you with his legs, and the OL figures to be pretty good. The tailbacks don't seem to have a star as of now, but you never know with that position. It's not like mediocre ND running backs haven't had success against us before.

I think Michigan will still be trying to work out the new offense, and Michigan likely won't be able to take advantage of ND's weakest defensive position group (i.e., the secondary). The defense will still not be good enough to hold ND's offense down. It will be close, and it certainly wouldn't surprise me to see Michigan win. How much spread stuff Borges deigns to run will also be a pretty big factor here (i.e., more is better at this point in the season). Michigan loses 28-20.

Eastern Michigan: No point in wasting too much time on this one. Michigan will win, and win big. Mike Hart in the Big House again will make for some solid game week fluff. Michigan wins by a lot, does it really matter the score? Okay, how about 45-10.

San Diego State: This one, on the other hand, is not getting enough consideration. Although Hoke and Borges are gone, SDSU should still be a dangerous team. If you read my run down of the 2010 TCU game, you'd know that the Aztecs have a pretty talented offensive unit. Unfortunately for the Aztecs, they will be without their top 4 receivers from last season, losing Vincent Brown and DeMarco Sampson to the NFL and Dominique Sandifer and Jay Waddell to injuries. As such, the offense has essentially been declawed, but they still return QB Ryan Lindley, RB Ronnie Hillman (who rushed for 1532 yards and 17 TD's last season), and TE Gavin Escobar. Defensively, SDSU returns 5 starters, but the defense will consist of mostly juniors and sophomores.

Michigan will win this game, but not before SDSU gives the Wolverines a bit of a scare in the first half and into the third quarter. Michigan wins 38-24.

Minnesota: The Gophers are just a bad team and they will probably suffer as a result of the Tim Brewster era for a couple years more. Jerry Kill figures to bring Minnesota back to their ground and pound days under Glen Mason, but the fact is the scheme doesn't really matter because the talent isn't there. Minnesota loses long time starter Adam Weber, who seemed to put up the numbers in a pass-heavy offense but really was fairly terrible. MarQueis Gray is a guy who was somewhat touted and brings some mobility to the QB position. Unfortunately for Coach Kill, Minnesota's leading rusher DeLeon Eskridge left the program  this offseason, making things that much tougher.

The defense returns 8, but they gave up 33.0 ppg last season. Minnesota is not good (how they managed to pick off Illinois and Iowa at the end of last season is a mystery). Gray might be able to run around for some yards but Michigan should be able to gash this defense on the ground and through the air with ease...Michigan wins 35-13.

Northwestern: This is another tough one to judge, but it's certainly winnable. If Michigan has developed enough momentum at this point, they should even be favored despite the Dan Persa hype train. I'm pretty sure the same things could be said about the Wildcats that have been sad about them for the past several years; for Northwestern, that's not at all a bad thing, because it means consistency. Northwestern returns 16 starters (9 on offense), including, of course, Persa and leading receiver Jeremy Ebert. Northwestern's OL also figures to field its best starting five in recent years. Like Michigan, Northwestern leaned on their quarterback on the run game, and it will be important for the Wildcats to find a reliable tailback to carry the ball if they don't want Persa to get injured halfway through the season. However, it looks like that decision might've been made for the NU offensive staff, as an Achilles injury that Persa is still rehabbing will likely force him to remain in the pocket.

Defensively, Northwestern returns 7, but this is not a unit to worry about. They only notched 17 sacks in 2010 (one less than Michigan did) and 29.0 ppg. Vincet Browne--who was 2nd Team All-Big Ten last
year--led the Wildcats with 7.0 sacks, making him probably their only standout.

Northwestern...they are what they are. Some people look at the numbers and call them one of the "luckiest" teams in the NCAA. While that may or may not be true, Fitzgerald has done the most with the minimal talent that he has, and a talented senior quarterback in Persa will be a tough assignment for the Michigan defense. This is the first road game for Michigan, but anybody that has been to a Michigan game at Ryan Field will tell you that there will assuredly be more Michigan fans than Northwestern fans present. By  this point in the season, I think the Wolverines will have started to improve on both sides of the ball, winning this one 31-28, and putting Michigan to a solid start of 4-1.

Michigan State: Okay, so for the first time in a while the Spartans truly have the attention of the Michigan fanbase. Michigan State had a very good season last year, but getting thumped by Alabama and Iowa, while also missing Ohio State, makes it a little less impressive than it seems on paper. With that said, I think MSU comes down a step this year.

Defensively, MSU should field a pretty strong DL, headlined by future first rounder Jerel Worthy and his tattoo. However, the Spartans will need for former Michigan target William Gholston to improve, as Tyler Hoover only registered 3 sacks at the other end position. At linebacker, they will be without the services of Greg Jones and Eric Gordon, only returning SLB Chris Norman. This position group figures to take a step down this season, although how much of a drop it ends up being depends on how former 4-star MLB Max Bullough performs.

Offensively, MSU looks like a team that can win the division and even the conference except for one, tiny issue: the offensive line. The Spartans only return 2 starters, and the departures included LT DJ Young (who was 2nd Team All-Big Ten) and RT J'Michael Deane. The Only Colors runs through the list of candidates to replace Young, one of which is a converted defensive lineman. Nobody will confuse Michigan's defense with Nick Saban's group of 11 Terminators, but this OL is something I'd be worried about if I was a Spartan fan. Otherwise, the skill positions look very good, with Cousins, Cunningham, Martin, Baker, and Bell coming back. Thus, everything hinges on the performance of the line. MSU's skill position guys won't do them much good if their lineman can't block anybody (see 2011 Capital One Bowl).

This game is enormous for Brady Hoke and for Michigan as a program. As much hype as the ND game is getting (and rightfully so), Michigan needs to win this one more. I think Hoke et al will have the team focused and prepared for this game, and the Wolverines will escape EL with a victory, finally flinging the monkey that is MSU's three game streak into the Detroit River. Michigan wins in 2007 fashion...Denard leads a late 4th quarter touchdown drive and Michigan wins 24-21.

Purdue: It's pretty sad that I'm giving this game, a conference game, about as much thought as the EMU game, but...Purdue is bad at football, and Michigan will win easily. The only concern here is a "hangover" after an emotional game in EL, but Michigan is much better on offense than Purdue is on defense (no Ryan Kerrigan is a plus), and Purdue's offense is just laughably incompetent, even more so now with Purdue's annual ACL explosion bonanza victimizing QB Rob Henry. I could see this being like the 2007 Minnesota game for a little while (come out slow, eventually wake up and turn it into a blowout), but ultimately Michigan should get to play a lot of second teamers by the 4th quarter. Michigan wins 38-10. 


Iowa: Michigan is, at this point, sitting at 7-1. Even I will admit that this might be a little optimistic, even considering that the next few games, as I will explain shortly, should go a little differently. However, Michigan's schedule really isn't that tough this year, so a 7-1 start is not out of the question. Beating State in EL is probably the only thing that's somewhat of a reach, and I feel pretty strongly that we'll get that done.

Beginning with the trip to Iowa City, the schedule gets much tougher, and I think Michigan will struggle. I don't necessarily think Iowa will be anything out of the ordinary this year, but I just have a bad feeling about this one. Iowa only returns 9 starters total, the fewest in the conference, and they will have to replace American hero Ricky Stanzi with junior James Vandenberg. I don't really have any concrete analysis for this one; Michigan will drop a road game (if not 2 road games), and I think this is one of them. Iowa seems to do well when expectations are low, and after losing their 5 games last year by 7, 1, 4, 3, and 3 points respectively, I think chances are they turn it around this year even if the team isn't necessarily better than last year. Iowa has never beaten Michigan three times in a row, but I think that trend is finally broken this year...Michigan drops a frustrating one, 28-17.

Illinois: As horrible of a coach as Ron Zook is, this is another dangerous road game for Michigan. As entertaining as last year's game was, I think we will not see nearly the same offensive production in this game. Illinois returns 6 starters on defense, losing Corey Liuget and Clay nurse on the line. The Illini should still have some experience here, but one would think it's going to be nearly impossible to replace Liuget this season. Ilinois gave up 23 ppg last year (good for 48th in the country), surprisingly good for a team you'd figure to be much worse. However, the Illini will almost certainly give up a few more points this year; Illinois will not be able to replace the production of Liuget and MLB Martez Wilson (and Nurse, to a much lesser extent).

The offensive side of the ball is where the Illini worry me. Despite being very much of a project passing the ball, Nathan Scheelhaase developed into a dangerous dual threat QB as a freshman last season, and he figures to only get better. The Illini lose Mikel Leshoure, an admittedly pretty huge loss, but Jason Ford should do alright as the top guy (he ran for 480 yards last season at rate of 4.8 yards per carry), and Scheelhaase will carry the ball a lot anyway (868 yards and 5 TD's last season). AJ Jenkins is also back catching passes for the Illini after a pretty good 2010 (56 receptions, 746 yards, and 7 TD's).

Like the Iowa game, I could easily see Michigan winning it, but I just think that Michigan will have trouble containing Scheelhaase. Michigan wins in a number of alternate universes and/or pick sets, but in this one, they lose 21-38, dropping the Wolverines to 7-3.

Nebraska: This is the first game where I feel the Wolverines are probably outmatched. Nebraska showed signs of weakness near the end of last season, when they lost 3 of their last 4 to Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and Washington (in addition to an inexplicably bad loss to Texas in October). Much of this can be pinned on the health of Taylor Martinez, who was pretty much lightning in a bottle until the Texas game. While Nebraska fans have much of the same concerns about Martinez that Michigan fans do about Denard, the Nebraska offense should be better if Martinez can simply stay healthy. Star tailback Roy Helu is now in Mike Shanahan's offense in Washington, but Rex Burkhead almost ran for a 1,000 yards as his backup last year, averaging 5.5 yards per carry. None of Nebraska's receivers really put up big numbers, but Brandon Kinnie and tight end Kyler Reed are the best returning targets, putting up 5 and 8 TD's respectively last year. Martinez will improve as a passer, but it's unclear by how much, especially if he's forced to continue to carry the ball so many times. Sound familiar?

On the other hand, the defense is Nebraska's bread and butter. Nebraska returns 7 starters from a unit that gave up 17.4 ppg last year. They return three pre-season all-conference types--one in each position group--in DT Jared Crick, MLB Lavonte David, and CB Alfonzo Dennard. This team is talented and well-coached, and although their number went down from '09 to '10 after Suh's departure, they are still a very good defense and certainly one of the best in the conference, if not the best.

Michigan will have a hard time containing Martinez (much like Scheelhaase), and the Huskers will score enough points to come out of Ann Arbor with a relatively comfortable victory. Michigan loses 31-17.

Ohio State: As important as the MSU game is, this one is about a million times more important. According to what I have so far, Michigan will be 7-4 coming into The Game. OSU likely won't be as good as they have been, and they could come into this meeting with 3 losses. Like Michigan, OSU is very much a high-variance team as far as what their best case and worst case scenarios look like this year (of course, OSU's "best case" is much better than Michigan's).

A lot rides on the quarterback situation (understatement of the century), a situation which is still not settled but has been whittled down to two candidates in freshman Braxton Miller and Joe "Methusela" Bauserman. I previewed the Buckeye quarterbacks earlier this summer, so my thoughts are already out there. I think Bauserman takes the first snap, but Miller will eventually take over, much like in 2008 when Pryor eventually took over after Todd Boeckmann started the season as the starter after taking the Buckeyes to the BCS title game in 2007. In the wide receiver corps, the Buckeyes have a lot of talent in guys like Verlon Reed, Philly Brown, etc. but not many of them are proven. DeVier Posey is the top target, and he will of course be available for the Buckeyes in the Michigan game after he starts the season serving out a 5-game suspension. Jake Stoneburner is a pretty decent talent at tight end but when was the last time the Buckeyes really utilized the tight end position? I'm not sure that this is the year. In the same vein, the Buckeyes will have Dan Herron back for this one, and after him the Buckeyes boast a stable of talented backs that can fill in here and there in a pinch.

Defensively, the Buckeyes only return 4 starters; however, this will be another good defense for OSU, and it will have to be because Fickell and Co. will depend lean on it. OSU loses a number of big names (Rolle, Homan, Hines, Chekwa, and Heyward), but they will reload. Will the defense be as good as last year? I'm not sure, but they will still be pretty good, and definitely top 2 in the conference. Nathan Williams and John Simon on the ends should make for a formidable pash rush, and Garrett Goebel and former kind of Michigan target Jonathan Hankins should be at least okay (with Hankins seeming to get some hype in Buckeye circles this offseason). The Buckeyes replace the linebackers with Andrew Sweat, Etienne Sabino, and Storm Klein. There is a lot of talent there, and Buckeye fans seem to be pretty excited about all three, particularly the potential of Sabino and Klein. Sweat seems like a guy who will be your standard, dependable tackle machine; however, I'm not sure that the other two positions are as sure of a thing as many Buckeye fans seem to think. Sabino and Klein were both 4-star recruits, yet they haven't done much of anything thus far in their careers. Sabino even took last year off, taking a redshirt because he saw a stacked depth chart and a chance to start in 2011 while not wasting a year of eligibility. The Buckeyes are talented in the secondary as well, but losing Chekwa, Hines, and Torrence will hurt. One figures that any growing pains should be mostly behind this unit by the time The Game rolls around, but you never know.

I had a tough time picking Michigan to beat State on the road, but this one will be an even tougher pick to make (not that there's really anything at stake here other than the risk of being wrong)...there's no doubt that the difference in talent between the two programs is not insignificant. Michigan will narrow the gap in the coming years, but just look at Ohio State's talent and depth and you can see why they've been the powerhouse that they've been for most of the last decade. At the same time, much of OSU's talent is unproven and inexperienced, and that is not even mentioning the fact that Luke Fickell will be roaming the sidelines and not Jim Tressel. Luke Fickell is not Jim Tressel. Say that out loud, it feels pretty good.

By the time this game rolls around, Michigan will have been hardened by the Big Ten schedule and some tough losses (which can be piled unceremoniously on top of the experiences of the last few seasons and the general scrapheap of futility and ruined Saturdays). The new starters will have a season of experience under their belts, and with guys with good football minds like Mattison and Borges instructing them on a weekly basis, it's difficult not to envision a team that is much better, tactically and fundamentally, on November 26th than it was on September 3rd.

As talented as OSU is, Michigan fields a wealth of talent of its own. A strong offensive line and group of receivers, as well as a talented group of tailbacks of which hopefully one will emerge as "the guy" (Toussaint?), will form an above average group by the end of the season, even with the subtle shift in offensive philosophy. Oh, and there's Denard too. If Al Borges was able to turn Jason Campbell into a first round pick, I think he can do some things with Denard Robinson.

The defense is of course another story, but there are a few things that encourage me: 1) A year of Greg Mattison's coaching 2) another season of experience for guys like Cam (and Thomas) Gordon, Courtney Avery, Kenny Demens, etc. 3) a Buckeye offense which will have serious issues at the quarterback and wide receiver positions 4) Hoke's/Michigan's desire to win this game. Yes, I realize the last point is completely intangible and doesn't really win games (execution does), but it's there and you can't deny it. Seven in a row? Has it really been that long? You know that the preparation for this will be thorough and intense, and the desire to win among the seniors will be at an all-time high. For three hours, Troy Woolfolk will think he's Marlin Jackson, Kenny Demens will think he's David Harris, Junior Hemingway will think he's Braylon Edwards.

More on this later, but for now I will say that Michigan will beat Ohio State. I won't even give you a score because it doesn't even matter. Michigan will win. It won't quite be 1969 in its significance, but it will be the biggest win since the 2003 contest, and the argument for it being the most important win since the 1998 Rose Bowl victory is a cogent one.

That means that Michigan finishes 8-4, which is good for the Outback Bowl or something. Honestly, I went into this thinking possibly 7-5 (which I could still easily see happening if you flip either of the Northwestern or MSU predictions), but it was so very hard for me to predict that Michigan would get off to a start similar to the ones they had in 2009 and 2010 only to fall flat on their faces come conference play. 8-4 is my prediction, though, and I'm sticking to it (and if it comes to fruition, with wins against MSU and OSU...Brady Hoke for President?).

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bonus Predictions:
  • Denard carries the ball no more than 180 times, and definitely no more than 200 (down from last year's 256).
  • Shaw runs for 800 yards, Toussaint for 600, and Smith for 400. Denard for 1,100 yards
  • Hemingway steps it up in a big way, picking up the slack in Stonum's absence: 60-70ish rec., 950 yards, and 7 touchdowns. 
  • Kenny Demens leads the team in tackles. 
  • The defense will improve to top 70 in total defense, while also shaving a few points off of their mark of 35.2 ppg in 2010...31.0 ppg sounds like reasonable shot in the dark (Minnesota gave up 33 ppg and Northwestern gave up 29.0 ppg last year). 
  • Devin Gardner will be a significant factor in at least one win this season. 
  • Leaders division champion: Wisconsin, Legends: Nebraska--Big Ten Champion: Wisconsin
  • Other conference champions--ACC: Florida State, Big East: West Virginia, PAC 12: Oregon, SEC: Alabama, Big 12: Oklahoma
  • BCS Title Game: Oklahoma vs. Alabama--Alabama wins second title in 3 years


Tuesday, June 14, 2011

The Replacements (Buckeye Quarterbacks Edition): Joe Bauserman

In light of Pryor's exit and the resulting black hole at quarterback position for the Buckeyes, I'd like to run down the roster of remaining quarterbacks (Bauserman, Guiton, Graham, and Miller) to get a feel for what we will be dealing with. I will make some predictions, and many of them will probably be wrong but it's June so I get a pass. This is simply an early look and is by no means comprehensive; however, in the interest of good, healthy "moving on," it would behoove us to know what we'll be up against. I'll start with what sounds like the best case scenario for an ailing Michigan defense: one Joe Bauserman.

Photobucket



Spring QB situation fluff


The Basics

Joe Bauserman, a 6'1'' 230 pounder out of Strasburg, Va. started his Ohio State career as a walk-on in the 2007 season, in which the Buckeyes were eventually thumped by the Tigers of LSU in the national title game, 38-24. Bauserman was a 2-star prospect, ranked the 55th best quarterback in his class (2004) by Scout and a 3-star, 22nd best ranking on Rivals. For a frame of reference, this put him one spot behind Curtis Painter and eight behind Michigan State's Brian Hoyer (this was of course the Henne class, in which he was ranked third behind Anthony Morelli and Rhett Bomar). He's already 25 years old, and has a few years of minor league baseball experience, having been drafted in 2004 by the Pittsburgh Pirates in the 4th round. Apparently that didn't work out, because it's been all football for Joe since 2007.

According to Ohio State's official athletics site, he has "an active arm and ability to make a variety of throws," which would make some sense given that he played baseball. In other relevant news, the "Buckeye Bits" section of his bio explains that he was "third in [the] team bowling competition." Yes, this is indeed important and relevant.

The Numbers


Well, there's not much at all on Bauserman statistically, obviously. Here are his stats: they're not even worth mentioning. So yes, he is old but that doesn't mean he is seasoned in any way. For what it's worth, he did throw touchdown passes against Purdue and Eastern Michigan this past season. There's not much to go on, but even if there was I don't think there'd be much to go on.

Spring Game Hype/Notes:


In OSU's Spring Game, held on April 23rd, Bauserman went:

4-of-11, playing with the first-team offensive line for his first series -- when he was sacked twice, took a delay of game penalty and was flushed again by Simon pressure -- and for his last series, when he threw his only touchdown.
Not exactly a great performance. The usual "it's the Spring Game" (actually, scrimmage) caveat applies, but he didn't do himself any favors. He did throw a touchdown, though.

According to The Plain Dealer:

He was the first quarterback to take the field for Saturday's Ohio State scrimmage, the last of 15 spring practices for the Buckeyes, but most fans probably wouldn't be disappointed if the 25-year-old former minor-league pitcher isn't the first quarterback out there against Akron on Sept. 3. 

The Lantern:

Joe Bauserman picked the wrong era to try to be Ohio State's quarterback. 
Bauserman himself put a word in on his role in the QB race:

"People want excitement and the guy that they've never seen before is going to get them thinking about it," Bauserman said Saturday, speaking to reporters for the first time this spring. "It doesn't bother me. I feel like I can play at this level just as well as anybody else." 
There are many other fluff-type stuff coming from Bauserman like the above, indicating that he is well aware that: a) he has come out of the spring without having secured the job and b) he represents the "unexciting" to the average Buckeye fan. Center Mike Brewster comes in with some boilerplate praise:

"Joe's a real solid guy. He knows the offense. He's going to make the smart play. That's what you want from your quarterback," Brewster said. "I think Joe will be the No. 1 probably going into camp and, you know, he's comfortable back there and that always makes you feel good if your quarterback knows everything about the offense."
This is generally football speak for "talent-deficient" and "can't make a play."There is some mention of his mobility, which could help him some if he actually is able to make the smart play. With tailback Dan Herron and wideout DeVier Posey out, whoever the quarterback is will have to produce some on his own if the Buckeyes are going to escape the first 5 games unscathed. OSU has enough talent to do so, but does Bauserman have what it takes to lift Ohio State's offense from mediocre (i.e., without Pryor, Posey, Herron, etc.) to competent?

Here's some more Spring fluff from the horse's mouth:


Pointless Prognostication:


Bauserman is a lose-lose proposition for the Buckeyes. Despite folks extolling him for his experience, he has played very little (and not a single meaningful snap to boot), and his Spring Scrimmage performance was far from impressive. While I don't want to lob any more criticism at Nick Sheridan, who did his best for Michigan, Bauserman does not seem to be much of an upgrade over Nick. Old+little game experience=a bad situation waiting to happen. We'll see how it progresses throughout the summer and into the fall, but as time goes on, the number of games I see Bauserman playing in before handing over the keys (ZING) to Miller/Guiton/Graham will probably drop. I see Bauserman getting in and managing the Bucks to a pair of uninspiring wins against Akron and Toledo before one of the aforementioned triumvirate takes over. He does have some size and ostensible mobility; he won't be Craig Krenzel (they're approximately the same size), but he could be a poor man's version. Bauserman is basically the default starter on September 3rd if Fickell prioritizes "experience" like a lot of coaches do. Unless somebody else makes a significant push in the fall, it's hard not to see Bauserman at least taking the first snaps of the 2011 season. Like '08 with the Pryor for Boeckman switch in the USC game, I see Miller taking over at some point during the Miami game.