Breaking Points: Penn State Edition

No. 18 Michigan heads to Happy Valley to take on the Penn State Nittany Lions at Beaver Stadium, where the Wolverines have lost the last two times they've visited; of course, those two visits came during the Rich Rodriguez era.

On the surface, you would think a game against a team that just lost to Indiana by 20 would be a slam dunk, but, once again, I get the feeling that it won't be. I wasn't quite right on my 31-13 prediction for the Minnesota game, but at least I got Minnesota's point total right. Take away that Blake Countess pick six and my prediction was pretty close to spot on, which of course means absolutely nothing.

The oddsmakers have the Wolverines as just a 3-point favorite, a week after Michigan was a 19-point favorite against then 4-1 Minnesota. Will the game be that close? It will if Michigan fails to do a few things with consistency:

Devin Gardner vs. mistakes/road environment. One week of mistake-free football won't erase what happened during the Akron and UConn games. If Michigan is going to coast through this one into the second half with a lead of any size, Gardner cannot gift the Nittany Lions points and/or great field position. Penn State's defense has not been tremendous of late, giving up 34 to a speedy Central Florida team and, of course, 44 to Indiana's up-tempo spread bonanza.

However, Penn State is still 18th in total defense, given that their other three opponents were Syracuse, Eastern Michigan and Kent State. This is not a vintage Penn State defense, but playing at home against Michigan always has a way of motivating Big Ten foes. Gardner has played in the Horseshoe, at Nebraska (as a wide receiver) and saw time at quarterback against Michigan State in 2011, so the environment shouldn't be a complete shock to him.

That said, his ability to get the team on the same page when the crowd turns up the volume will go a long way toward limiting the sorts of basic errors he's made to date. Playing Minnesota at home during homecoming and then playing in Beaver Stadium are like going to the opera and then catching a Metallica concert.

Pass protection vs. PSU pass rush. The Nittany Lions don't have an elite pass rush on paper, but they are tied for 47th in the country in that department with 11 sacks on the season.

On the bright side for the Wolverines, PSU doesn't seem to have a single pass rushing specialist. The Nittany Lion defense has 11 players credited with at least half of a sack; No. 91 Da'Quan Jones and No. 84 Kyle Baublitz are tied for the team lead with two sacks apiece. Both are seniors and both play tackle. Chris Bryant, Graham Glasgow and Kyle Kalis will have a tough task ahead of them, even if PSU's numbers don't show it. If Gardner is getting pressure up the middle, you'll probably see a few big losses on sacks as Gardner scrambles to the edges, or, worse, an interception or two.

On that note, Jones leads Penn State in tackles for loss with 6.5 to date. For a squad historically known for its linebackers, Jones is the defensive player to watch on this PSU defense. Once Michigan recruiting target C.J. Olaniyan is second on the team with 4.5 tackles for loss from the defensive end spot.

Offensively, it's difficult to get much going if your interior OL is getting bull rushed and swim moved with even semi-regularity. Combine that with the road game environment and an early sack or a turnover could send Gardner spiraling back into the dark place he was in against UConn for most of that game.

UCF and Indiana exposed the PSU defense, so it's not as if it will be impossible for the Wolverines to successfully attack this group. However, the defensive line (especially Jones), is active and capable of making plays in the backfield, which Michigan hasn't exactly done a good job of preventing thus far. Also, as sad as it is to say, I don't know if Michigan has the same offensive firepower, speed-wise or pace-wise, as UCF and IU, respectively.

Blake Countess (and safety help) vs. Allen Robinson. Simply put, if Allen Robinson has a game like he had against Indiana last week, Michigan will be in big trouble. As much as Michigan fans might not want to hear it, the gameplan might just have to feature a lot of that soft, Cover 2 shell we've seen much of this season.

Michigan should be able to get into the upper 20s in points. In order for that to be enough, Michigan will have to limit the big plays when the Penn State offense is on the field. Conservative defense is not fun to watch, but it has been effective for Michigan. Hackenberg has thrown just four interceptions in five games, but he is still a freshman. The odds are good he'll give Michigan a pick at some point.

In the meantime, especially in the first half, don't be surprised if Michigan is giving up lots of yardage. You won't have a fun time watching it happen, but as long as those seriously threatening long drives end with field goals or punts once PSU crosses midfield, Michigan will be okay.

Tight end Kyle Carter is a distant second in the receiving department, with 11 receptions for 147 yards. Wide receiver Brandon Felder has 16 receptions for 135 yards of his own. QB Christian Hackenberg has thrown eight touchdown passes to date, five of them going Robinson's way. Sophomore receiver Geno Lewis is the only other receiver with a touchdown score; tailback Bill Belton has the other two.

Like the Joel Stave-Jared Abbrederis connection in Madison, you pretty much know where Hackenberg is going to go with the football. As always, stopping it is easier said than done. But, if Robinson has a merely "good" day as opposed to transcendent, I don't know if Penn State has enough receiving talent to test Michigan's at times leaky non-Countess corners.

The tight ends, Carter included, haven't showed up much on the stat sheet, but Hackenberg will look to them. Big time recruit Adam Breneman has just five receptions for 49 yards to date, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him get a target or two. Coverage up the seams will have to better than it was on scoring plays against Akron and UConn. In general, Michigan did have a little bit of trouble checking Minnesota TE Maxx Williams, which might not mean anything going forward but is something to think about.

Rushing offense vs. PSU run D. Much of the focus is on the quarterbacks, what with Hackenberg showing promise as a freshman and Gardner having his struggles. However, the ground game will be key; this is still the Big Ten, after all.

As far as run-stopping linebackers go, middle linebacker No. 40 Glenn Carson leads PSU with 39 tackles, 3.5 for loss. Mike Hull and Nyeem Wartman have 15 and 14 tackles, respectively. Joe Kerridge vs. Carson will be a battle to watch.

Both teams boast top 20 rushing defenses, with Michigan at No. 9 and Penn State at No. 20. I wouldn't expect either team to have a 100-yard back on Saturday, but that doesn't necessarily matter. If Fitzgerald Toussaint can put together a Minnesota-esque (or, better yet, a UConn-esque) performance, that should be enough to take the playmaking burden off of Gardner's shoulders.

Of course, Michigan will need to block to make that happen. Brian has talked about this at MGoBlog this week, but it remains to be seen whether Michigan's strategy of putting Michael Schofield next to Taylor Lewan--essentially tipping run in the process--can work against teams with a little more defensive oomph than Minnesota has.

I'm not sure if there any counters available with this look, or if Michigan will just try to mash their way to a few yards per play with this look and hope for the best. Either way, Michigan needs probably 70-80 yards from Toussaint for it to be a relatively successful evening on the ground, plus whatever magic Gardner can produce on scrambles and miscellaneous designed runs.

Rushing D vs. PSU rushing O. On the other side, Penn State has had offensive line struggles of its own but the numbers show the Nittany Lions having a trio of capable backs. Zach Zwinak is the feature back, having carried the mail 84 times for 369 yards (4.4 YPC) and eight touchdowns. He has a long of 38 yards; he's not a big play threat, but if Michigan's playing the generally conservative gameplan I expect they will, I wouldn't be surprised if he chips away at the Michigan defense to the tune of 70-80 yards of his own on 15-20 carries.

Bill Belton has a bit more speed to his game (he returns kicks and punts, as well); he's got 284 yards on 43 carries, good for 6.6 yards a pop. His long of 51 came against Eastern Michigan, however, and he was held to just 31 yards on 10 carries against Indiana. Belton is a pass catching threat, though, so the Wolverines will have to be cognizant of him in the flats and on wheel routes.

Sophomore Akeel Lynch has nice numbers too (35 carries, 270 yards, 7.7 YPC), but he didn't play against Syracuse and managed a combined 39 yards on eight carries against UCF and Indiana. That's not bad, but it doesn't seem like he'll be a major part of the gameplan.

In short, with Ondre Pipkins out for the year, Quinton Washington will need to have a big game up front if Michigan is going to prevent Zwinak from eclipsing his season average YPC of 4.4. One thing is for sure: Penn State will run the ball. The Nittany Lions have a run-pass split of 64:36, which accounts for Hackenberg's 55 attempts against Indiana. The PSU offense will likely have to approach equilibrium against Michigan, but with a freshman quarterback and a pair of serviceable backs, Penn State will look to run first before taking its shot downfield to Robinson, especially if Gardner struggles early on.

---
Once again, I find myself feeling not incredibly confident about beating a team that just took a pretty brutal loss. Michigan has blown out much better PSU teams in Happy Valley than this one, but this doesn't have the feel of a blowout, let alone a moderately comfortable win.

I expect Michigan to have some first quarter struggles. The Wolverine defense always seems to bend and ultimately break on the first drive of the game; if the Wolverines can keep PSU out of the end zone if that happens again, they'll be in good shape.

Michigan won't have consistent success on the ground, but, this game will be won or lost by the quarterbacks, with the ground games serving as ancillary components.

Michigan probably can't match Indiana's passing output or UCF's balanced offensive attack, but I don't think they have to in order to come away with a win. This game will be close, but I'm going to roll with the idea that Gardner's turnover-free performance against the Gophers was the turning over of a new leaf. Score: Michigan 28, Penn State 23. 

Northwestern Preview: Juncture

No, this has not nonsensically transformed into a Bulls blog. I am aware that Michigan has a football team still. Anyway, here's the first preview in a while from me (since ND, actually). Enjoy. 

Last week:"Denard will play. Don't you trust me, guys?"

Time: 12 ET (ESPN)

Place: Michigan Stadium--Ann Arbor, MI

Line: Michigan -9.5

Mood: Let's take care of business, eh?

This season, like every one before it, has sped on without your consent, like a city bus driver who sees you running up to door outside buts pull away anyway.

After a second trip up in Iowa City last season, the Wolverines entered the final triumvirate of games (Illinois, Nebraska and Ohio State) with a lot at stake and many questions left unanswered. Would the Wolverines be able to shake their offensive struggles on the road to get the win against a defensively solid Illini team? What about Nebraska? I also heard that there was some sort of looming streak against the Buckeyes that needed to be taken care of that definitely hadn't constantly been on all of our minds.

The circumstances this time around aren't exactly the same. Michigan rolls into this stretch with one more loss than they had at this point last season, this year's Iowa team is probably the weakest of either trio of opponents in question (i.e. last three games of 2011 and 2012) and the Wolverines get a much better Ohio State team on the road.

As a relatively new student at Northwestern, I took it upon myself to, you know, pay attention to Northwestern football. I watched most of--and in some cases, all (!)--the Wildcats' first five games, but I admittedly haven't been able to keep up from the Penn State game onward. So, a decent percentage of the things I will write here are colored significantly by watching them in September, FWIW.

On Offense 
Brady Hoke will continue to say things regarding Denard's status, but it's pretty clear at this point that Hoke is the Mozart of the trolling craft (yes, you the annoyed fan are indeed Salieri in this ridiculous analogy). With that said, I'm going to remain under the assumption that Devin Gardner will start until proven otherwise, which should happen at right around 11:59 a.m. ET on Saturday.

Northwestern has actually been pretty tough defensively this season, particularly against the run, which is bad news for a Michigan team that hasn't gotten much of a non-Denard ground game going against anybody this season. If Denard goes, this concern is mitigated, but that is, in fact, an "if." Northwestern sits at a respectable 43rd in defensive S&P+; of course, they are 49th in pass defense S&P+, 35th against the pass, furthering my already extensive confusion vis-a-vis the world of ADVANCED STATZ.

DC Mike Hankwitz has done a good job molding this defense into a solid run D outfit, headlined by its three linebackers, Damien Proby, Brian Nwabuisi, and the spectacularly named Chi Chi Ariguzo. Before I move on, I just want to note that Mike Hankwitz basically is Heisenberg, you guys:

Maybe we should not mess with this guy. (HT: nusports.com)

The Wildcats have had capable linebackers in the past, including some guy named Pat Fitzgerald, so it's no surprise that that is the case now. Proby and Nwabuisi lead the team in tackles (86 and 75, respectively) and Ariguzo and safety Ibraheim "Guy You Probably Know From Reading Preseason Preview Magazines" Campbell are tied at third with 67 each. That is the sign of a good run defense.

The Cats have given up 41 on the road at Syracuse, 39 at Penn State, 29 against Nebraska in a pseudo-home game and had a rough second half against Indiana (albeit one that featured an IU kickoff return for a TD from Tevin Coleman), with the Hoosiers finishing with 29 after backup Nate Sudfeld had taken over at quarterback. Otherwise, the Northwestern D has generally put the clamps down on most teams, although none of those teams are very good at the offense thing.

Unfortunately, Michigan has been debatably good on that front as well. However, this defense isn't Alabama's or Notre Dame's, obviously. For a point of reference, Iowa sits at 45th in def. S&P+, two spots behind NU.

As you'd expect, the weak link in this defense is the secondary. Campbell, to quote Hoke, is a "guy who can do some things," but he can't do it alone. Redshirt freshman corner Nick VanHoose has shown promise at times but has also been picked on at various points; the same applies for Stanford grad transfer Quinn Evans. However, the two didn't play two weeks ago against Iowa after VanHoose suffered a shoulder injury and Evans an ankle injury against Nebraska the week before. Playing backups at both corner spots against Iowa, the Wildcats made it okay, giving up only 17 points against an Iowa offense that has been absolutely disastrous minus Mark Weisman's TRUE GRIT.

As of a few days ago, it seems that VanHoose and Evans will both go Saturday.

To make a long story short, Northwestern will generally look to contain Denard and hope he doesn't complete any bombs deep like he did last season. This generally worked during the first half last season, when Denard tossed three picks. Given what we saw from Gardner last week, the Wildcats might not be in a much better position if he ends up starting.

This is the type of game that probably keeps Borges up the night before. I'm talking about the "night before the first game of the season excitement" sort of restlessness and not the "OH GOD I HAVE TO DO THIS AGAIN I HAVE A LINE MADE OF OFFICE SUPPLIES AND EVERYBODY HATES ME NO MATTER WHAT AHHH" kind.

Michigan will likely get off to a slow start again as it finds its bearings and establishes a non-zero threat to run. Once that happens, look for Borges to initiate "RexGrossmanGameplanGOINGDEEP.exe."

On Defense 
As frustrating as it has been to talk about the offense, the defense has been like a ceaseless ray of sunshine. Michigan is truly #blessed to have a DC like Greg Mattison, no question Jim.

The Wildcats have been a shifting amorphous blob of an offense, particularly at quarterback, but it would seem that they have decided to roll with Kain Colter full-time. Pocket passing freshman Trevor Siemian got some serious run early in the season, with Colter serving as a Wildcat (literally) QB/WR. Siemian attempted only one pass against Iowa, and the 'Cats only threw the ball 10 times total. That's "Big Ten football at its best."*

But wait, it's not, because Northwestern is decidedly a run-based spread outfit. The 'Cats are 13th in rushing yardage per game (236 per) and 113th in passing (162 per). If you have watched Northwestern play for even five minutes this season, this is probably not a surprise to you.

Colter is not Denard when it comes to top-end speed, but in the context of a read-option offense, that's not necessarily the most important thing. Colter, as I mentioned earlier in the season, has a particular set of skills. Of those skills, neck chopping the zone read is one which he executes masterfully, making me wish Denard could do the same every time I see it unfold.

The Wildcats have managed a 61:41 run-pass split to date. Complementing Colter's zone read sorcery is diminutive tailback Venric Mark, who has honestly been one of the most exciting players in the country. He is a threat to break a big play at almost any time. Mark has racked up 910 yards with a nice and shiny 6.1 YPC.

The Wildcats do in fact have some capable receivers, even if Kyle Prater hasn't turned out to be the instantly impactful guy that NU fans were hoping. The quartet of Tony Jones, Demetrius Fields, Rashad Lawrence and Christian Jones all have similar numbers (200s in yardage, 0-2 TDs each). The Wildcats don't pass much though, especially with Colter taking almost all of the snaps.

Michigan shut down a run-based Minnesota team last week and did a pretty solid job against Nebraska (up until the very end) despite have an offense about as effective as one composed of 11 boxes of Cheerios. Washington and Campbell should be able to get a little push up the middle when NU does pass or run little isos and draws out of the shotgun.

Where Michigan can get beat, on occasion, is on the edges. With Colter and Mark's general jukability, Michigan's edge defenders will need to be vigilant. Even the glorious Jake Ryan has had lapses on the edge this season, although they've been relatively infrequent occurrences. So, this game will basically come down to how Michigan responds in these situations.

*Hey BTN, if you haven't trademarked this yet then I hereby claim it. I'm pretty sure this is how copyright law works, right?

Special Teams 
Simply put, Michigan needs: a) no costly derps from Gallon and b) a not terrible performance from Hagerup, especially since I get the feeling that Michigan will get off to a slow start again on offense.

From the Northwestern side, Mark is also a special teams dynamo. He's been okay on kicks, but on punts he has picked up two touchdowns in 10 returns, with an average of 25 yards per. Dear Michigan ST guys: lanes, get to them!

Oh, also, kicker Jeff Budzien is 11/12 on the year with a long of 44, in addition to being perfect on extra points. He's a dependable guy who should be able to chip in some points when Northwestern drives stall.

Predictions of Negligible Worth 
Gardner's performance last week was undoubtedly a jolt of confidence for the jittery post-Denard injury Michigan fan. Yes, it was just Minnesota, but Gardner looked far more capable than he has at any point in his career; I truly believe all the talk that his time at receiver helped him last week.

Defensively, I just see a fairly one-dimensional--albeit talented and dangerous--Northwestern offense, and Greg Mattison has dreams about those sorts of things. Colter and Mark are good enough that they will find their way onto the second level from time to time, but I don't believe that this is the week that Michigan starts giving up multiple big plays.

This will come down to Jake Ryan maintaining his level of play to date and Michigan's corners, namely J.T. Floyd, bringing the appropriate support on edge runs and screens. If all goes according to plan, Northwestern will be forced to execute several grinding drives; if this happens, I'm willing to bet that at least one or two of those ends in a field goal or no points at all.

To be quite honest, I'm not sweating the whole "will he or won't he play" re: Denard. If he plays, everything will be fine and dandy and Michigan will actually have a running game. If Devin is in, assuming last week wasn't a mirage, Michigan should be more than fine. He has the arm to test Northwestern's corners deep, and he should be able to pick up some more yardage on the ground a la last week when the first couple of reads aren't there.

Northwestern will keep it close throughout. This might be the strongest defensive front seven the 'Cats have fielded in some time, and Michigan's interior OL hasn't shown the ability to dominate anybody on a consistent basis all year, let alone against solid to pretty good fronts.

Colter can make some plays through the air, but I don't know that Northwestern will really try all that much. Barring a complete defensive implosion, Michigan should hold Northwestern to around 20 points, give or take. I'm thinking that we get an encore performance of last week's game: rough beginning, triumphant middle, medals being handed out on Endor in the end.

Score: Michigan 31, Northwestern 17. 

Miscellaneous Minutiae, 8/27/2012

Just wrapping up some loose ends here before the college football season starts...ON THURSDAY. I can hardly believe it either. 

Goodbye, offseason.

Captains. They are, as expected, Denard Robinson and Jordan Kovacs. As Michigan's most prominent senior warrior football poets, you can expect a lot about them in this space throughout the coming months.

Also, this goes without saying but I'll say it anyway: Jordan Kovacs is Rudy...if Rudy was actually good and had an NFL future. Seriously. The guy didn't make the team in 2008 due to a knee injury and then turned around and started in '09. The rest, as they say, is history. Competence is good. /Henne'd

Deciding time. This is just about the time when schools are announcing who their starter at QB will be going into the coming season. Some guys won by default, some after a long and arduous battle throughout the spring, summer, and fall.

The notable winners: Kiehl Frazier (Auburn), Josh Nunes (Stanford), Everret Golson (Notre Dame), David Ash (Texas), and Joe Southwick (Boise State), Marcus Mariota (Oregon). So, there you go. Arm yourselves with this arsenal of useless information (which I guess basically defines sports fandom as a whole, but whatever). Nunes and Southwick have the unenviable task of replacing Andrew Luck and Kellen Moore*, whereas the other three guys are trying to be better (Ash, Frazier) or better than the guy that started last year (Golson).

*Mariota has to replace a productive, successful college QB in Darron Thomas, but, as I mentioned in the Pac 12 preview, he's just the next cog in the Oregon offensive machine. At this point, I'm convinced that Chip Kelly could coach an orange with pencils for appendages to run for 100+ and pass for 250+ against your team.

Speaking of Golson. You've probably heard this already, but ND has suspended tailback Cierre Wood for a minimum of two games...that's not a good thing if your name is Everett Golson. The Irish start the season in Dublin (not the one in Ohio) against Navy. I'm not quite ready to sound the upset alert siren here, but a young QB without his top tailback, no Michael Floyd (plus, Theo Riddick is now a running back), doesn't sound like a promising thing for the ND offense. Whereas Rees managed to move the ball last season only to eventually turn it over, ND might find it difficult to move the ball at all with Golson.

Basically, you can expect approximately 842 passes thrown in Tyler Eifert's direction against Navy.

Meanwhile, in Knoxville. Also on the suspension front, Tennessee had suspended star wideout Da'Rick Rogers (he has since transferred to Tennessee Tech), which significantly puts a dent in my increasingly positive (for some reason) feelings about the Vols' 2012 team. This is a tough blow for Tennessee, especially after getting their other star receiver Justin Hunter back from injury (he missed most of the 2011 season).

From where I stand, Tennessee looks like a team with a solid but not spectacular defense that is moving to the 3-4 and an offense with a gunslinger of a QB and a not very established running game. Unless Bray is ultra-efficient--which is unlikely given that's he's going to be throwing it as if UT  had somehow relocated to the Pacific coast--then seven wins might be as far as UT can go in Dooley's third season. Is that enough? I'm honestly not sure.

Ah, there's the beef. So things had been progressing fairly normally this fall; that is, until some things about the defensive line started to leak out of fall camp. By this I am mostly referring to #76 Quinton Washington, former O-lineman, starting on the DL next to BWC.

If the Black-QW-BWC-Roh lineup is the one that gets rolled out to start, that pretty much confirms the sneaking suspicion that the coaches aren't that comfortable with Black's ability to hold up on the inside, even with the weight he's added (up to 276 from 260, as of this post). Either that, or they're attempting to compensate for Clark's suspension by slotting Black back at his original position (WDE), hopefully precluding the need to play Ojemudia at all against Alabama, which I think would mostly end in disaster. Washington is pretty big, and if there was a game to roll with QW and Campbell in the middle, it's against Alabama. Now, being big doesn't mean that you can hold up (see: "Will Campbell's first three seasons at Michigan"), but the coaching staff is in a bit of a bind. Sadly, these sorts of moves when you're about to face an offensive line like Alabama's is kind of like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.

Also. Devin Gardner: is the transformation to wideout complete? It certainly seems that way based on recent rumblings. Two things:

• Whatever arcane magical rituals you've been performing in order to keep Denard healthy, DOUBLE DOWN on them right now and all the way through early January. No offense to Russell Bellomy, but if he is the QB2 in earnest, then 
• At this point, however, I've come to terms with the fact that wide receiver might end up being Devin Gardner's calling. For whatever reason, his mechanics and overall QB "it having-ness" hasn't progressed as expected, and that's unfortunate but far from presages the end of the world or DG's career. We all know he can be an exceptional talent [insert that camp highlight tape where he does his best Marquise Walker impression here], but it's one thing to be a guy running out there for the occasional snap and being a starting guy. Either way, the coaches have done a great job generally keeping DG's role under wraps..I can guarantee that Saban is thinking about this. 

See, look: interesting football things to talk about. Football must be near. *Checks calendar* WOOOO!

More? Florida's 2012 QB situation is going to mirror 1998/99 Michigan's...if Brady and Henson were both not very good. Check the "ETC" section...Spencer with a zinger regarding UofM research and Greg Robinson. 

Lake The Post agrees with me, putting Michigan at #11 to start.