Given the Jekyll and Hyde nature of the Indiana football team--and the fact that I covered some of the personnel and basic statistics yesterday--this post will be a little shorter than usual. Anyway, on with the points:
Devin Gardner vs. mistakes. Again, insert bit about this continuing to be a point of concern for the rest of the season. Michigan is halfway through its season and Gardner has been turnover-free in just one game, which was in part due to the nature of the game and the conservatism of the gameplan.
Against a team with a high-octane offense like Indiana, turnovers are death, especially because the Hoosiers aren't very good defensively on their own. If the Hoosiers force turnovers of the "make plays" variety, there's not much to be done. However, Gardner cannot gift wrap them points via turnover, i.e. Penn State's first two touchdown scores set up by Gardner interceptions.
Running power vs. pulling the plug. Any discussion of offensive playcalling, in my mind, starts with the acknowledgement that Al Borges knows infinitely more about offensive football than I or anyone else typing away on the Internet.
With that said, there is a basic point that anyone can glean from last Saturday's performance: when is enough enough? Now, it must be noted that a number of Michigan's obvious power runs came on the clock-killing drive at the end of regulation, so perhaps the 27 carries for 27 yards thing is being perceived slightly more harshly than it should be (of course, it was still very bad any way you slice it). You would think that a Michigan team could run for at least one yard on even the most obvious of running situations (e.g. clock-killing drives), but that is no the case for this iteration of Michigan football.
If you're looking for a little early litmus test for the Michigan State game, consider this: the Spartans had two 90+ yard rushers against the Hoosiers last Saturday. Jeremy Langford had 109 yards on 23 carries and three touchdowns, while Delton Williams had 92 yards on 12 carries.
Big Ten fans gave MSU a lot of flak for its early offensive ineptitude, but the Spartans ran the ball with ease against a bad IU defense (i.e. an expected outcome for a divisional contender). I admit that this is incredibly reductive thinking, but with MSU on the schedule two weeks from tomorrow, if Michigan doesn't come close to matching the aforementioned rushing output tomorrow, concern levels will be high.
Ordinarily, you'd like to see at least 5.0 YPC against Indiana. This year, I think most people would accept three yards a pop, which of course is a sign of the times. Either way, it's now or never: if Michigan can't get the ground game going against Indiana, then the UConn game will go down as Michigan's best non-CMU rushing performance of the season.
Michigan defense vs. substitutions. Kevin Wilson's offense is not quote the second coming of the 2008 Oklahoma Sooners just yet, but it's absolutely a dangerous offense. Although the Hoosiers certainly have good skill position talent, tempo is the vehicle by which IU finds its success.
Against Penn State, Michigan was seemingly unprepared to handle the Nittany Lions' intermittent usage of an up-tempo, no huddle offense. Well, that's pretty much going to be the whole game. If the Michigan defense can avoid giving up its usual first possession long drive, that would be a major early boost of confidence.
Indiana's offense is not invincible, and while Michigan's defense is not as good as Michigan State's, the Wolverines do have the players to disrupt the IU offense to force some punts.
Devin Funchess vs. the IU secondary. Simply put, Funchess should have a monster game. Indiana's linebackers are not impressive, and the secondary is what you'd expect an Indiana secondary to be (although, as I mentioned yesterday, Tim Bennett is somewhat of a playmaker at corner). Funchess should be able to go over the top once again, while Gallon should be
I could be going crazy, but it seems like Michigan's put away the Gallon throwback screen play this season; perhaps that could be because it became gradually less effective last season. Nonetheless, that's a play I could see having some success against IU (think last year's Illinois game).
Michigan OL vs. pass protection. All of the focus is on the run blocking these days, but it's not as if pass protection has been perfect. More often than not, Michigan's best plays have been Gardner making like Second City and improvising as a byproduct of pass rush pressure.
Despite being a bad defense overall, the Hoosiers are surprisingly competent if you look at sacks alone, in which they are ranked 53rd in the nation. That's not exceptional or anything, but they've got the ability to get to the quarterback. Indiana notched three sacks against Mizzou; Georgia managed just one more, four, in their matchup against Gary Pinkel's squad.
However, IU only tallied one sack apiece against Penn State and Michigan State. Nick Mangieri (3.5 sacks) and John Laihinen (3.5 sacks), both defensive ends, are IU's leaders in sacks. Lewan and Schofield should be able to hold down the fort at the ends, but, as always, the question is whether the center can hold, or if mere anarchy will be loosed upon the Michigan backfield.
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Michigan is a 9-10 point favorite depending on where you look. Quite honestly, I have no idea what to expect this week. That is an uncomfortable place to be.
Indiana has some nice weapons on offense; Tevin Coleman is probably the best tailback Michigan has seen thus far. If the linebackers don't fill and/or get blocked or the safeties find themselves daydreaming, Coleman can take it to the house before you can say Petoskey.
I foresee the first half being a real shootout. I don't feel confident that Michigan's defense will be immediately ready to handle IU's pace. Once again, I'll say that if IU's first drive ends with a field goal, that's a victory.
Usually I have some sort of vaguely reasonable rationale for my score predictions, but this week's is just a thread pulled from the yarn ball of immense uncertainty. Score: Michigan 38, Indiana 31.
Showing posts with label breaking points. Show all posts
Showing posts with label breaking points. Show all posts
Friday, October 18, 2013
Friday, October 11, 2013
Breaking Points: Penn State Edition
No. 18 Michigan heads to Happy Valley to take on the Penn State Nittany Lions at Beaver Stadium, where the Wolverines have lost the last two times they've visited; of course, those two visits came during the Rich Rodriguez era.
On the surface, you would think a game against a team that just lost to Indiana by 20 would be a slam dunk, but, once again, I get the feeling that it won't be. I wasn't quite right on my 31-13 prediction for the Minnesota game, but at least I got Minnesota's point total right. Take away that Blake Countess pick six and my prediction was pretty close to spot on, which of course means absolutely nothing.
The oddsmakers have the Wolverines as just a 3-point favorite, a week after Michigan was a 19-point favorite against then 4-1 Minnesota. Will the game be that close? It will if Michigan fails to do a few things with consistency:
Devin Gardner vs. mistakes/road environment. One week of mistake-free football won't erase what happened during the Akron and UConn games. If Michigan is going to coast through this one into the second half with a lead of any size, Gardner cannot gift the Nittany Lions points and/or great field position. Penn State's defense has not been tremendous of late, giving up 34 to a speedy Central Florida team and, of course, 44 to Indiana's up-tempo spread bonanza.
However, Penn State is still 18th in total defense, given that their other three opponents were Syracuse, Eastern Michigan and Kent State. This is not a vintage Penn State defense, but playing at home against Michigan always has a way of motivating Big Ten foes. Gardner has played in the Horseshoe, at Nebraska (as a wide receiver) and saw time at quarterback against Michigan State in 2011, so the environment shouldn't be a complete shock to him.
That said, his ability to get the team on the same page when the crowd turns up the volume will go a long way toward limiting the sorts of basic errors he's made to date. Playing Minnesota at home during homecoming and then playing in Beaver Stadium are like going to the opera and then catching a Metallica concert.
Pass protection vs. PSU pass rush. The Nittany Lions don't have an elite pass rush on paper, but they are tied for 47th in the country in that department with 11 sacks on the season.
On the bright side for the Wolverines, PSU doesn't seem to have a single pass rushing specialist. The Nittany Lion defense has 11 players credited with at least half of a sack; No. 91 Da'Quan Jones and No. 84 Kyle Baublitz are tied for the team lead with two sacks apiece. Both are seniors and both play tackle. Chris Bryant, Graham Glasgow and Kyle Kalis will have a tough task ahead of them, even if PSU's numbers don't show it. If Gardner is getting pressure up the middle, you'll probably see a few big losses on sacks as Gardner scrambles to the edges, or, worse, an interception or two.
On that note, Jones leads Penn State in tackles for loss with 6.5 to date. For a squad historically known for its linebackers, Jones is the defensive player to watch on this PSU defense. Once Michigan recruiting target C.J. Olaniyan is second on the team with 4.5 tackles for loss from the defensive end spot.
Offensively, it's difficult to get much going if your interior OL is getting bull rushed and swim moved with even semi-regularity. Combine that with the road game environment and an early sack or a turnover could send Gardner spiraling back into the dark place he was in against UConn for most of that game.
UCF and Indiana exposed the PSU defense, so it's not as if it will be impossible for the Wolverines to successfully attack this group. However, the defensive line (especially Jones), is active and capable of making plays in the backfield, which Michigan hasn't exactly done a good job of preventing thus far. Also, as sad as it is to say, I don't know if Michigan has the same offensive firepower, speed-wise or pace-wise, as UCF and IU, respectively.
Blake Countess (and safety help) vs. Allen Robinson. Simply put, if Allen Robinson has a game like he had against Indiana last week, Michigan will be in big trouble. As much as Michigan fans might not want to hear it, the gameplan might just have to feature a lot of that soft, Cover 2 shell we've seen much of this season.
Michigan should be able to get into the upper 20s in points. In order for that to be enough, Michigan will have to limit the big plays when the Penn State offense is on the field. Conservative defense is not fun to watch, but it has been effective for Michigan. Hackenberg has thrown just four interceptions in five games, but he is still a freshman. The odds are good he'll give Michigan a pick at some point.
In the meantime, especially in the first half, don't be surprised if Michigan is giving up lots of yardage. You won't have a fun time watching it happen, but as long as those seriously threatening long drives end with field goals or punts once PSU crosses midfield, Michigan will be okay.
Tight end Kyle Carter is a distant second in the receiving department, with 11 receptions for 147 yards. Wide receiver Brandon Felder has 16 receptions for 135 yards of his own. QB Christian Hackenberg has thrown eight touchdown passes to date, five of them going Robinson's way. Sophomore receiver Geno Lewis is the only other receiver with a touchdown score; tailback Bill Belton has the other two.
Like the Joel Stave-Jared Abbrederis connection in Madison, you pretty much know where Hackenberg is going to go with the football. As always, stopping it is easier said than done. But, if Robinson has a merely "good" day as opposed to transcendent, I don't know if Penn State has enough receiving talent to test Michigan's at times leaky non-Countess corners.
The tight ends, Carter included, haven't showed up much on the stat sheet, but Hackenberg will look to them. Big time recruit Adam Breneman has just five receptions for 49 yards to date, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him get a target or two. Coverage up the seams will have to better than it was on scoring plays against Akron and UConn. In general, Michigan did have a little bit of trouble checking Minnesota TE Maxx Williams, which might not mean anything going forward but is something to think about.
Rushing offense vs. PSU run D. Much of the focus is on the quarterbacks, what with Hackenberg showing promise as a freshman and Gardner having his struggles. However, the ground game will be key; this is still the Big Ten, after all.
As far as run-stopping linebackers go, middle linebacker No. 40 Glenn Carson leads PSU with 39 tackles, 3.5 for loss. Mike Hull and Nyeem Wartman have 15 and 14 tackles, respectively. Joe Kerridge vs. Carson will be a battle to watch.
Both teams boast top 20 rushing defenses, with Michigan at No. 9 and Penn State at No. 20. I wouldn't expect either team to have a 100-yard back on Saturday, but that doesn't necessarily matter. If Fitzgerald Toussaint can put together a Minnesota-esque (or, better yet, a UConn-esque) performance, that should be enough to take the playmaking burden off of Gardner's shoulders.
Of course, Michigan will need to block to make that happen. Brian has talked about this at MGoBlog this week, but it remains to be seen whether Michigan's strategy of putting Michael Schofield next to Taylor Lewan--essentially tipping run in the process--can work against teams with a little more defensive oomph than Minnesota has.
I'm not sure if there any counters available with this look, or if Michigan will just try to mash their way to a few yards per play with this look and hope for the best. Either way, Michigan needs probably 70-80 yards from Toussaint for it to be a relatively successful evening on the ground, plus whatever magic Gardner can produce on scrambles and miscellaneous designed runs.
Rushing D vs. PSU rushing O. On the other side, Penn State has had offensive line struggles of its own but the numbers show the Nittany Lions having a trio of capable backs. Zach Zwinak is the feature back, having carried the mail 84 times for 369 yards (4.4 YPC) and eight touchdowns. He has a long of 38 yards; he's not a big play threat, but if Michigan's playing the generally conservative gameplan I expect they will, I wouldn't be surprised if he chips away at the Michigan defense to the tune of 70-80 yards of his own on 15-20 carries.
Bill Belton has a bit more speed to his game (he returns kicks and punts, as well); he's got 284 yards on 43 carries, good for 6.6 yards a pop. His long of 51 came against Eastern Michigan, however, and he was held to just 31 yards on 10 carries against Indiana. Belton is a pass catching threat, though, so the Wolverines will have to be cognizant of him in the flats and on wheel routes.
Sophomore Akeel Lynch has nice numbers too (35 carries, 270 yards, 7.7 YPC), but he didn't play against Syracuse and managed a combined 39 yards on eight carries against UCF and Indiana. That's not bad, but it doesn't seem like he'll be a major part of the gameplan.
In short, with Ondre Pipkins out for the year, Quinton Washington will need to have a big game up front if Michigan is going to prevent Zwinak from eclipsing his season average YPC of 4.4. One thing is for sure: Penn State will run the ball. The Nittany Lions have a run-pass split of 64:36, which accounts for Hackenberg's 55 attempts against Indiana. The PSU offense will likely have to approach equilibrium against Michigan, but with a freshman quarterback and a pair of serviceable backs, Penn State will look to run first before taking its shot downfield to Robinson, especially if Gardner struggles early on.
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Once again, I find myself feeling not incredibly confident about beating a team that just took a pretty brutal loss. Michigan has blown out much better PSU teams in Happy Valley than this one, but this doesn't have the feel of a blowout, let alone a moderately comfortable win.
I expect Michigan to have some first quarter struggles. The Wolverine defense always seems to bend and ultimately break on the first drive of the game; if the Wolverines can keep PSU out of the end zone if that happens again, they'll be in good shape.
Michigan won't have consistent success on the ground, but, this game will be won or lost by the quarterbacks, with the ground games serving as ancillary components.
Michigan probably can't match Indiana's passing output or UCF's balanced offensive attack, but I don't think they have to in order to come away with a win. This game will be close, but I'm going to roll with the idea that Gardner's turnover-free performance against the Gophers was the turning over of a new leaf. Score: Michigan 28, Penn State 23.
On the surface, you would think a game against a team that just lost to Indiana by 20 would be a slam dunk, but, once again, I get the feeling that it won't be. I wasn't quite right on my 31-13 prediction for the Minnesota game, but at least I got Minnesota's point total right. Take away that Blake Countess pick six and my prediction was pretty close to spot on, which of course means absolutely nothing.
The oddsmakers have the Wolverines as just a 3-point favorite, a week after Michigan was a 19-point favorite against then 4-1 Minnesota. Will the game be that close? It will if Michigan fails to do a few things with consistency:
Devin Gardner vs. mistakes/road environment. One week of mistake-free football won't erase what happened during the Akron and UConn games. If Michigan is going to coast through this one into the second half with a lead of any size, Gardner cannot gift the Nittany Lions points and/or great field position. Penn State's defense has not been tremendous of late, giving up 34 to a speedy Central Florida team and, of course, 44 to Indiana's up-tempo spread bonanza.
However, Penn State is still 18th in total defense, given that their other three opponents were Syracuse, Eastern Michigan and Kent State. This is not a vintage Penn State defense, but playing at home against Michigan always has a way of motivating Big Ten foes. Gardner has played in the Horseshoe, at Nebraska (as a wide receiver) and saw time at quarterback against Michigan State in 2011, so the environment shouldn't be a complete shock to him.
That said, his ability to get the team on the same page when the crowd turns up the volume will go a long way toward limiting the sorts of basic errors he's made to date. Playing Minnesota at home during homecoming and then playing in Beaver Stadium are like going to the opera and then catching a Metallica concert.
Pass protection vs. PSU pass rush. The Nittany Lions don't have an elite pass rush on paper, but they are tied for 47th in the country in that department with 11 sacks on the season.
On the bright side for the Wolverines, PSU doesn't seem to have a single pass rushing specialist. The Nittany Lion defense has 11 players credited with at least half of a sack; No. 91 Da'Quan Jones and No. 84 Kyle Baublitz are tied for the team lead with two sacks apiece. Both are seniors and both play tackle. Chris Bryant, Graham Glasgow and Kyle Kalis will have a tough task ahead of them, even if PSU's numbers don't show it. If Gardner is getting pressure up the middle, you'll probably see a few big losses on sacks as Gardner scrambles to the edges, or, worse, an interception or two.
On that note, Jones leads Penn State in tackles for loss with 6.5 to date. For a squad historically known for its linebackers, Jones is the defensive player to watch on this PSU defense. Once Michigan recruiting target C.J. Olaniyan is second on the team with 4.5 tackles for loss from the defensive end spot.
Offensively, it's difficult to get much going if your interior OL is getting bull rushed and swim moved with even semi-regularity. Combine that with the road game environment and an early sack or a turnover could send Gardner spiraling back into the dark place he was in against UConn for most of that game.
UCF and Indiana exposed the PSU defense, so it's not as if it will be impossible for the Wolverines to successfully attack this group. However, the defensive line (especially Jones), is active and capable of making plays in the backfield, which Michigan hasn't exactly done a good job of preventing thus far. Also, as sad as it is to say, I don't know if Michigan has the same offensive firepower, speed-wise or pace-wise, as UCF and IU, respectively.
Blake Countess (and safety help) vs. Allen Robinson. Simply put, if Allen Robinson has a game like he had against Indiana last week, Michigan will be in big trouble. As much as Michigan fans might not want to hear it, the gameplan might just have to feature a lot of that soft, Cover 2 shell we've seen much of this season.
Michigan should be able to get into the upper 20s in points. In order for that to be enough, Michigan will have to limit the big plays when the Penn State offense is on the field. Conservative defense is not fun to watch, but it has been effective for Michigan. Hackenberg has thrown just four interceptions in five games, but he is still a freshman. The odds are good he'll give Michigan a pick at some point.
In the meantime, especially in the first half, don't be surprised if Michigan is giving up lots of yardage. You won't have a fun time watching it happen, but as long as those seriously threatening long drives end with field goals or punts once PSU crosses midfield, Michigan will be okay.
Tight end Kyle Carter is a distant second in the receiving department, with 11 receptions for 147 yards. Wide receiver Brandon Felder has 16 receptions for 135 yards of his own. QB Christian Hackenberg has thrown eight touchdown passes to date, five of them going Robinson's way. Sophomore receiver Geno Lewis is the only other receiver with a touchdown score; tailback Bill Belton has the other two.
Like the Joel Stave-Jared Abbrederis connection in Madison, you pretty much know where Hackenberg is going to go with the football. As always, stopping it is easier said than done. But, if Robinson has a merely "good" day as opposed to transcendent, I don't know if Penn State has enough receiving talent to test Michigan's at times leaky non-Countess corners.
The tight ends, Carter included, haven't showed up much on the stat sheet, but Hackenberg will look to them. Big time recruit Adam Breneman has just five receptions for 49 yards to date, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him get a target or two. Coverage up the seams will have to better than it was on scoring plays against Akron and UConn. In general, Michigan did have a little bit of trouble checking Minnesota TE Maxx Williams, which might not mean anything going forward but is something to think about.
Rushing offense vs. PSU run D. Much of the focus is on the quarterbacks, what with Hackenberg showing promise as a freshman and Gardner having his struggles. However, the ground game will be key; this is still the Big Ten, after all.
As far as run-stopping linebackers go, middle linebacker No. 40 Glenn Carson leads PSU with 39 tackles, 3.5 for loss. Mike Hull and Nyeem Wartman have 15 and 14 tackles, respectively. Joe Kerridge vs. Carson will be a battle to watch.
Both teams boast top 20 rushing defenses, with Michigan at No. 9 and Penn State at No. 20. I wouldn't expect either team to have a 100-yard back on Saturday, but that doesn't necessarily matter. If Fitzgerald Toussaint can put together a Minnesota-esque (or, better yet, a UConn-esque) performance, that should be enough to take the playmaking burden off of Gardner's shoulders.
Of course, Michigan will need to block to make that happen. Brian has talked about this at MGoBlog this week, but it remains to be seen whether Michigan's strategy of putting Michael Schofield next to Taylor Lewan--essentially tipping run in the process--can work against teams with a little more defensive oomph than Minnesota has.
I'm not sure if there any counters available with this look, or if Michigan will just try to mash their way to a few yards per play with this look and hope for the best. Either way, Michigan needs probably 70-80 yards from Toussaint for it to be a relatively successful evening on the ground, plus whatever magic Gardner can produce on scrambles and miscellaneous designed runs.
Rushing D vs. PSU rushing O. On the other side, Penn State has had offensive line struggles of its own but the numbers show the Nittany Lions having a trio of capable backs. Zach Zwinak is the feature back, having carried the mail 84 times for 369 yards (4.4 YPC) and eight touchdowns. He has a long of 38 yards; he's not a big play threat, but if Michigan's playing the generally conservative gameplan I expect they will, I wouldn't be surprised if he chips away at the Michigan defense to the tune of 70-80 yards of his own on 15-20 carries.
Bill Belton has a bit more speed to his game (he returns kicks and punts, as well); he's got 284 yards on 43 carries, good for 6.6 yards a pop. His long of 51 came against Eastern Michigan, however, and he was held to just 31 yards on 10 carries against Indiana. Belton is a pass catching threat, though, so the Wolverines will have to be cognizant of him in the flats and on wheel routes.
Sophomore Akeel Lynch has nice numbers too (35 carries, 270 yards, 7.7 YPC), but he didn't play against Syracuse and managed a combined 39 yards on eight carries against UCF and Indiana. That's not bad, but it doesn't seem like he'll be a major part of the gameplan.
In short, with Ondre Pipkins out for the year, Quinton Washington will need to have a big game up front if Michigan is going to prevent Zwinak from eclipsing his season average YPC of 4.4. One thing is for sure: Penn State will run the ball. The Nittany Lions have a run-pass split of 64:36, which accounts for Hackenberg's 55 attempts against Indiana. The PSU offense will likely have to approach equilibrium against Michigan, but with a freshman quarterback and a pair of serviceable backs, Penn State will look to run first before taking its shot downfield to Robinson, especially if Gardner struggles early on.
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Once again, I find myself feeling not incredibly confident about beating a team that just took a pretty brutal loss. Michigan has blown out much better PSU teams in Happy Valley than this one, but this doesn't have the feel of a blowout, let alone a moderately comfortable win.
I expect Michigan to have some first quarter struggles. The Wolverine defense always seems to bend and ultimately break on the first drive of the game; if the Wolverines can keep PSU out of the end zone if that happens again, they'll be in good shape.
Michigan won't have consistent success on the ground, but, this game will be won or lost by the quarterbacks, with the ground games serving as ancillary components.
Michigan probably can't match Indiana's passing output or UCF's balanced offensive attack, but I don't think they have to in order to come away with a win. This game will be close, but I'm going to roll with the idea that Gardner's turnover-free performance against the Gophers was the turning over of a new leaf. Score: Michigan 28, Penn State 23.
Friday, October 4, 2013
Breaking Points: Little Brown Jug/Homecoming Edition
After spending the bye week focusing on the rest of the Big Ten (and simultaneously trying not to think about the Akron and UConn games), Michigan will returns to the Big House this Saturday for its Big Ten opener (and Homecoming).
The Gophers, on the other hand, ran through their weak nonconference schedule with ease, only to drop its own conference opener against Iowa last week in disappointing fashion. In the 23-7 loss at TCF Bank Stadium, the Gophers rushed for just 30 yards on 27 carries (40 yards on 18 if you remove QB Philip Nelson's numbers). For a Minnesota squad without much serious receiving talent, if you shut down the ground game, you're in business. After the Gophers ran a pass-heavy spread-type offense for some time, a return to this sort of ground-based football seems appropriate to me.
So, what will be the key matchups heading into this one, as the Wolverines look to cover what seems to be a generous 19-point spread? Once again, the same things will likely continue to pop up all season:
Chris Bryant vs. jumping into the starting lineup. This will be Bryant's first meaningful game action, which would be encouraging under ordinary circumstances. As it stands, Bryant is getting the start out of necessity, what with Jack Miller struggling at center, forcing a Graham Glasgow move to that spot so Bryant can slide in at left guard. How Glasgow adapts to the center position is another story entirely, but, at minimum, Bryant should bring quite a bit more run-blocking oomph at the guard spot (and it's not as if Glasgow was particularly bad at LG anyway). Assuming Bryant is truly healthy and ready to play, if he can give Michigan a boost this week, perhaps the Michigan ground game will start to trend upward at just the right time.
Michigan front seven vs. Minnesota ground game. Simply put, whether it's Philip Nelson or Mitch Leidner in the game, this will be a classic Big Ten "stop the run" game, written without a hint of snark. It's difficult to get a feel for what Leidner can really do in the passing game, given that he's only played against Western Illinois and San Jose State (12-for-20, 176 yards, 60%, 0 TDs, 0 INTs). Nelson, on the other hand, has struggled, completing just 50.8% of his passes and throwing four interceptions to just two touchdowns. For all of the consternation about the UConn game, the Wolverine defense actually held the Huskies passing game in check (Chandler Whitmer passed for just 5.0 yards per attempt); Greg Mattison's side of the ball will need another performance like that if the Wolverines plan on its first comfortable victory since the Central Michigan game.
At tailback, Donnell Kirkwood has been limited by an ankle injury since the opener, and carried the ball just three times for six yards against Iowa. Kirkwood had a decent 2012 season; if healthy, he could be a challenge, but not unless the quarterbacks offer any sort of relief. If Kirkwood can't go, Rodrick Williams Jr. (5.8 YPC) and David Cobb (5.8 YPC) will carry the mail. Cobb is 5'11 225, whereas Williams Jr. is 5'11 235. In short, expect several Desmond Morgan thumpacolypses.
Lastly, whether Nelson or Leidner (or both) enter the game, both will carry the ball quite a bit themselves. In five games, the two signal carries have carried it 42 and 46 times, respectively.
Devin Gardner vs. mistakes. This will continue to be a point of concern for the rest of the season. Without entering the discourse of what his confidence level must be like after Akron and UConn (and even the Notre Dame pick six if you'd like to include that), Gardner must have a clean, relatively mistake-free game. Despite having explosive DT Ra'Shede Hageman, the Gophers are just 108th in sacks, with six in five games. Gardner will have time, but time has often been Gardner's enemy. As spectacular as Gardner's touchdown strike to Drew Dileo was last season against Minnesota, I'll take some conservative dinking and dunking before any wild, desultory scrambling. At the same time, that is who Gardner is as a quarterback, and asking him not to improvise is like trying to bottle up the wind.
Iowa's Jake Rudock went 15-for-25 for 218 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Quite honestly, this would be an encouraging line for Gardner, especially if he connects on a big play or two like Rudock did.
Hageman vs. non-Lewan offensive linemen. Hageman is a defensive tackle but is a type who will probably do some moving around on the line. With that said, I wouldn't be surprised to see him lined up on the edges, although I'd bet not against Lewan. So, whether it's Schofield, Kalis, Glasgow or Bryant, if Michigan is going to avoid another parade of 2-yard losses, they must account for Hageman's quickness. He hasn't had an especially dominant season to date, with only one sack to his name, but he is tied for the team lead in tackles for loss (5.5). Given the smack talk that has gone on this week, Hageman will be looking to prove himself and up his stock against a name brand like Michigan (if you're into that line of thinking). I usually dismiss that sort of thing, but, after all, these players are people, not automatons derived from meticulous calculus.
Jehu Chesson vs. incorporation into the offense. There is a minor undercard of a story for this week, but Chesson's incremental incorporation into the swing of things should hopefully take another step forward this Saturday. With all due respect to Jeremy Jackson and Joe Reynolds, Michigan is much better served with Chesson on the field. He took a leap forward in that department against UConn, but wasn't quite able to make those plays downfield. The Gophers gave up a couple of big plays against Iowa, including a 74-yarder to Damond Powell. This Saturday will be another opportunity to build up some trust with the coaches--he's already proven himself as a surprisingly effective blocker--as the Wolverines start to approach the challenging part of the schedule.
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Other than that, Michigan is a better football team, and the Iowa game last week shed light on the weaknesses of this Minnesota squad. If Philip Nelson is tearing Michigan up through the air--and I feel like I've said this thirty times this season already--then run for cover.
Minnesota's only somewhat productive receiver is the 6'2'' 187-pound senior Derrick Engel, and even he has just 12 grabs thus far (160 yards, 1 touchdown). Assuming Michigan locks down on him like they should, I don't know where the receiving production will come from for Minnesota.
Roll your eyes if you must, but if Michigan runs the ball with any success and stops the run, then they do have a pretty good chance to cover that spread. On the heels of the Gophers' 16-point loss at home against Iowa, maybe I'm being a bit pessimistic, but I need to see Michigan put it together for a whole game against an overmatched opponent before I can start to breathe easy again.
It's a bit strange to think that Gardner's debut came against Minnesota last season, and that a year later against that same team, there are more questions than answers regarding his play. Saturday will provide the first of many opportunities to beat back the ghosts of Akron and UConn.
I think Michigan looks much better than it did against either of those teams, but isn't quite what it was against Notre Dame. Score: Michigan 31, Minnesota 13.
Thursday, September 26, 2013
Bye Week Breaking Points: Badgers and Buckeyes
With Michigan taking a much needed week off, this is a great week to focus on a big time Leaders division matchup at the Horseshoe between the Ohio State Buckeyes and Wisconsin Badgers. Ohio State, of course, has national title aspirations, while the Badgers are looking to win their fourth Big Ten championship in a row, including their third straight Big Ten championship game victory. Unfortunately for the Badgers, a loss this Saturday will probably prevent them from having the opportunity to play for it.
Were it not for a truly bizarre ending in Tempe (yes, Wisconsin handled it poorly, but there is simply no excuse for the lack of any sort of action by the referees), this would be a meeting of undefeated squads. Alas, that is not the case, but the Badgers are fresh off of a cathartic thumping of Purdue and the Buckeyes had themselves a little tune-up game against FAMU last week to go 4-0.
I've mentioned this here before, but, records aside (i.e. Michigan and Northwestern), I think these are the two best teams in the Big Ten right now. Regardless, this should be a fun game to watch, as this has become an increasingly exciting series the last few years.
A few points bouncing around in my head about this matchup is we get closer to Saturday night:
Braxton Miller rustiness vs. Dave Aranda. With Miller likely to start (despite being listed as a co-starter with Kenny Guiton), rustiness could be an issue for Miller early on. Miller played the opener against Buffalo and just a bit of the first quarter against San Diego State. Badgers defensive coordinator Dave Aranda might look to capitalize early on by trying to confuse Miller with various looks out of the 3-4; B5Q has a nice post on that very thing, highlighting what Aranda did against Purdue last week. The Buckeyes cannot afford to let any Badgers defenders through for clean hits against Miller (as we saw in last year's Michigan game).
UW's three-headed rushing attack vs. OSU rush defense. It's generally fruitless to cite most forms of statistics at this point in the season, but, FWIW, OSU is 9th in rushing defense, allowing just 2.61 yards per carry. Naturally, the Badgers are third in rushing offense, spearheaded by senior James White--who has seemingly been here for (12) years like LL Cool J--and Melvin Gordon*, with freshman 4-star Corey Clement picking up some serious production in Wisconsin's three blowout wins. The Badgers have accomplished this with an offensive line that is good but by no means one of their better lines in recent memory. Gary Andersen's squad had a tough time running up the middle against Arizona State, but found great success on Gordon fly sweeps:
Can they do the same thing against an Ohio State front seven that, before the season, was talented but inexperienced (and now has four games under its belt)? Maybe. Either way, this will be a huge test for Ohio State's linebackers, especially strong side linebacker Joshua Perry and middle linebackers Curtis Grant.
In any case, the Buckeyes haven't exactly faced stiff competition:
I really liked this boxing-themed lede regarding Ohio State's defense against Wisconsin's rushing attack.
*Gordon's production alone is exceeds that that of 45 FBS teams.
Devin Smith/Philly Brown vs. UW secondary. The secondary was a major concern for the Badgers coming into the season, and in their lone game against decent competition, Arizona State's Taylor Kelly threw for 352 yards (albeit on 51 attempts). Meanwhile, Smith and Brown have to date combined for 32 receptions (16 apiece exactly), 450 yards and seven touchdowns. Smith's 90-yard touchdown reception against Cal was the longest scoring play in Ohio State history. The Badgers have a solid run defense, but can be had over the top. Look for Miller/Guiton to go over the top to take advantage of this weakness.
Joel Stave vs. accuracy. During the offseason, my opinion of the Wisconsin quarterback race, as an outsider, was that Stave was clearly the guy with the most upside and probably the best quarterback on the roster, period. I still think that is true, but after attending last week's game at Camp Randall, I'm starting to understand some of the gripes Badgers fans have re: his accuracy. Stave does well on the short stuff and has a decent arm (as far as I can tell, certainly better than Curt Phillips's arm) but continues to flat out miss open receivers. This was most glaring late in the third quarter, when Stave vastly underthrew Jared Abbrederis downfield. Has Stave thrown it anywhere near Abbrederis's catching radius, the senior receiver likely could have walked to the end zone untouched.
Simply put, if Stave can't stretch the Ohio State defense with his arm, the Badgers are not going to have two 100+ yards rushers, let alone three. I think Stave is a solid quarterback, but if he can't connect deep with Abbrederis--who should be able to get open, even while matched up against Bradley Roby--then the Badgers are doomed to running into stacked fronts with only moderate success at best.
The return of Carlos Hyde vs. Jordan Hall. Although the spotlight has been on Guiton for his performance in Miller's absence, tailback Jordan Hall has quietly put together a stellar stat line while Hyde served out a suspension. Hall has racked up 422 yards and eight touchdowns at 6.2 yards per carry. With that said, Hyde is the more talented player, and it will be interesting to see how he is deployed on Saturday.
With Miller returning from injury, you'd think that Urban Meyer would like to avoid running Miller too much until it's absolutely necessary.
UW nose tackle Beau Allen vs. Ohio State interior offensive line. The enormous Allen (6'3'' 325 pounds) has had to adjust to being the man in the middle in the base 3-4 defense, but it seems he's done an excellent job thus far, especially against Arizona State. The Sun Devils' interior OL couldn't hold off Allen; as a result, they ran for just 2.8 YPC.
The Buckeyes have the pure speed and athleticism to attack the edges, but if the Buckeyes want to have success up the middle, Buckeyes center Corey Linsley and guards Andrew Norwell and Marcus Hall will need to eat their Wheaties. If anything, the Buckeyes might want to loosen up the defense with the pass first.
Wisconsin vs. injuries. I didn't quite realize this until reading this B5Q post, but the Badgers are pretty banged up, to the point that center Dallas Lewallen, tight end Jacob Pedersen and corner Peniel Jean might not even play this week; losing Jean puts some serious pressure on young corner Sojourn Shelton. A freshman Shelton checking either Smith or Brown is not exactly a winning proposition for the Badgers.
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Really, this is a pretty simple game. Wisconsin will try to run the ball; Ohio State will try to force Stave to beat them. The Buckeyes will look to strike deep against a vulnerable Badgers secondary, while the Badgers will look to make Miller uncomfortable with a wide variety of presnap shifting and blitzes coming from unexpected places. Each team has vulnerable spots on defense (Wisconsin's secondary, possibly OSU's front seven against decent competition), and quarterback play, as it always is, will be crucial, but for different premises. Can Stave make plays downfield when Abbrederis manages to get open? What will Braxton Miller look like after not playing the last nine quarters of OSU football?
Making score predictions is a lot like playing darts with one eye covered; but, we do them anyway, because we like to put a nice little bow of closure atop the things we've written.
Although I've developed a bit of an affinity for Madison, I'm not sure that the Badgers leave Ohio Stadium with a win. Gordon and White should have decent evenings, but I'm not sure I trust Stave to connect on big plays when they're there to be made. I also foresee a big play or two through the air to Smith/Brown for the Buckeyes. Ohio State 27, Wisconsin 20.
Were it not for a truly bizarre ending in Tempe (yes, Wisconsin handled it poorly, but there is simply no excuse for the lack of any sort of action by the referees), this would be a meeting of undefeated squads. Alas, that is not the case, but the Badgers are fresh off of a cathartic thumping of Purdue and the Buckeyes had themselves a little tune-up game against FAMU last week to go 4-0.
I've mentioned this here before, but, records aside (i.e. Michigan and Northwestern), I think these are the two best teams in the Big Ten right now. Regardless, this should be a fun game to watch, as this has become an increasingly exciting series the last few years.
A few points bouncing around in my head about this matchup is we get closer to Saturday night:
Braxton Miller rustiness vs. Dave Aranda. With Miller likely to start (despite being listed as a co-starter with Kenny Guiton), rustiness could be an issue for Miller early on. Miller played the opener against Buffalo and just a bit of the first quarter against San Diego State. Badgers defensive coordinator Dave Aranda might look to capitalize early on by trying to confuse Miller with various looks out of the 3-4; B5Q has a nice post on that very thing, highlighting what Aranda did against Purdue last week. The Buckeyes cannot afford to let any Badgers defenders through for clean hits against Miller (as we saw in last year's Michigan game).
UW's three-headed rushing attack vs. OSU rush defense. It's generally fruitless to cite most forms of statistics at this point in the season, but, FWIW, OSU is 9th in rushing defense, allowing just 2.61 yards per carry. Naturally, the Badgers are third in rushing offense, spearheaded by senior James White--who has seemingly been here for (12) years like LL Cool J--and Melvin Gordon*, with freshman 4-star Corey Clement picking up some serious production in Wisconsin's three blowout wins. The Badgers have accomplished this with an offensive line that is good but by no means one of their better lines in recent memory. Gary Andersen's squad had a tough time running up the middle against Arizona State, but found great success on Gordon fly sweeps:
Can they do the same thing against an Ohio State front seven that, before the season, was talented but inexperienced (and now has four games under its belt)? Maybe. Either way, this will be a huge test for Ohio State's linebackers, especially strong side linebacker Joshua Perry and middle linebackers Curtis Grant.
In any case, the Buckeyes haven't exactly faced stiff competition:
What the Badgers bring is a powerful offense than can break a defense’s spirit. Ohio State’s young defensive front has not faced an offense capable of running the football. Buffalo (112), San Diego State (113), California (97) and Florida A&M (107 in FCS) think of the run as an afterthought.If I had to take a guess, the Badgers will likely have some success early on the Buckeyes defense gets used to the uptick in run game quality. How the Buckeyes responds after that will be the most important facet of this game.
I really liked this boxing-themed lede regarding Ohio State's defense against Wisconsin's rushing attack.
*Gordon's production alone is exceeds that that of 45 FBS teams.
Devin Smith/Philly Brown vs. UW secondary. The secondary was a major concern for the Badgers coming into the season, and in their lone game against decent competition, Arizona State's Taylor Kelly threw for 352 yards (albeit on 51 attempts). Meanwhile, Smith and Brown have to date combined for 32 receptions (16 apiece exactly), 450 yards and seven touchdowns. Smith's 90-yard touchdown reception against Cal was the longest scoring play in Ohio State history. The Badgers have a solid run defense, but can be had over the top. Look for Miller/Guiton to go over the top to take advantage of this weakness.
Joel Stave vs. accuracy. During the offseason, my opinion of the Wisconsin quarterback race, as an outsider, was that Stave was clearly the guy with the most upside and probably the best quarterback on the roster, period. I still think that is true, but after attending last week's game at Camp Randall, I'm starting to understand some of the gripes Badgers fans have re: his accuracy. Stave does well on the short stuff and has a decent arm (as far as I can tell, certainly better than Curt Phillips's arm) but continues to flat out miss open receivers. This was most glaring late in the third quarter, when Stave vastly underthrew Jared Abbrederis downfield. Has Stave thrown it anywhere near Abbrederis's catching radius, the senior receiver likely could have walked to the end zone untouched.
Simply put, if Stave can't stretch the Ohio State defense with his arm, the Badgers are not going to have two 100+ yards rushers, let alone three. I think Stave is a solid quarterback, but if he can't connect deep with Abbrederis--who should be able to get open, even while matched up against Bradley Roby--then the Badgers are doomed to running into stacked fronts with only moderate success at best.
The return of Carlos Hyde vs. Jordan Hall. Although the spotlight has been on Guiton for his performance in Miller's absence, tailback Jordan Hall has quietly put together a stellar stat line while Hyde served out a suspension. Hall has racked up 422 yards and eight touchdowns at 6.2 yards per carry. With that said, Hyde is the more talented player, and it will be interesting to see how he is deployed on Saturday.
With Miller returning from injury, you'd think that Urban Meyer would like to avoid running Miller too much until it's absolutely necessary.
UW nose tackle Beau Allen vs. Ohio State interior offensive line. The enormous Allen (6'3'' 325 pounds) has had to adjust to being the man in the middle in the base 3-4 defense, but it seems he's done an excellent job thus far, especially against Arizona State. The Sun Devils' interior OL couldn't hold off Allen; as a result, they ran for just 2.8 YPC.
The Buckeyes have the pure speed and athleticism to attack the edges, but if the Buckeyes want to have success up the middle, Buckeyes center Corey Linsley and guards Andrew Norwell and Marcus Hall will need to eat their Wheaties. If anything, the Buckeyes might want to loosen up the defense with the pass first.
Wisconsin vs. injuries. I didn't quite realize this until reading this B5Q post, but the Badgers are pretty banged up, to the point that center Dallas Lewallen, tight end Jacob Pedersen and corner Peniel Jean might not even play this week; losing Jean puts some serious pressure on young corner Sojourn Shelton. A freshman Shelton checking either Smith or Brown is not exactly a winning proposition for the Badgers.
---
Really, this is a pretty simple game. Wisconsin will try to run the ball; Ohio State will try to force Stave to beat them. The Buckeyes will look to strike deep against a vulnerable Badgers secondary, while the Badgers will look to make Miller uncomfortable with a wide variety of presnap shifting and blitzes coming from unexpected places. Each team has vulnerable spots on defense (Wisconsin's secondary, possibly OSU's front seven against decent competition), and quarterback play, as it always is, will be crucial, but for different premises. Can Stave make plays downfield when Abbrederis manages to get open? What will Braxton Miller look like after not playing the last nine quarters of OSU football?
Making score predictions is a lot like playing darts with one eye covered; but, we do them anyway, because we like to put a nice little bow of closure atop the things we've written.
Although I've developed a bit of an affinity for Madison, I'm not sure that the Badgers leave Ohio Stadium with a win. Gordon and White should have decent evenings, but I'm not sure I trust Stave to connect on big plays when they're there to be made. I also foresee a big play or two through the air to Smith/Brown for the Buckeyes. Ohio State 27, Wisconsin 20.
Friday, September 20, 2013
Breaking Points: UConn edition
I will be heading up to Madison, Wis., for the weekend, and I'm hoping to snag a ticket for the Badgers' Big Ten opener against Purdue (which kicks off at 2:30, well before Michigan hits Rentschler Field). This won't be a full-blown preview, just a list of various points of concern, hope, idle speculation, etc.
So, what should Michigan fans watch for as the Wolverines take on the 0-2 UConn Huskies? Here are some, none of which are probably news to you:
So, what should Michigan fans watch for as the Wolverines take on the 0-2 UConn Huskies? Here are some, none of which are probably news to you:
- Good Devin Gardner vs. Evil Devin Gardner. Unfortunately, this was also a dichotomy that existed during the Denard Robinson era. As we've seen thus far, Gardner has killed Michigan--although not to the tune of a loss, yet--with turnovers, and not even of the understandable kind. Consider the first interception against CMU, the easiest pick six in the world against Notre Dame and a take-your-pick of last week's four turnovers against Akron, and you have a pretty Kafkaesque picture thus far. In short, Gardner needs to go out and have a pretty clean, mistake-free day against the Huskies, not because Michigan is in danger of losing if he doesn't, but because you'd just like to see a little improvement i.e. removal of those Bad Idea Jeans decisions. The season is still young, but the Huskies defense is tied for 66th in the country in forced turnovers, with two fumbles and two interceptions. If there are Michigan turnovers in this one, the odds are they'll be of the bad mistake kind and not as a result of UConn's defensive play.
- Non-existent pass rush vs. possibly non-existent UConn offensive line. The Huskies have allowed QB Chandler Whitmer to be sacked 10 times in two games, a number that ties them for 121st in the country in that category; only Idaho has allowed more sacks (a whopping 21 for the Vandals). This is where I kindly suggest that Frank Clark records a sack. If Michigan can't get to Whitmer at all on Saturday, it might be time to really start worrying about the Big Ten schedule, even when Jake Ryan gets back. For what it's worth, the Terrapins sacked Whitmer six times, including 2.5 from the amazingly named linebacker Yannick Cudjoe-Virgil.
- Run blocking vs. UConn's defensive front. After the Akron game, citing the following point is perhaps a mark of hubris, but after games against Towson and Maryland, the Huskies are ranked 104th in run defense. They've given up 430 yards on 93 carries, good for 4.6 yards per carry. One of these days, Michigan is going to find a poor run defense it can actually run against: maybe this is the week? I gave the offensive line more of the blame for last week's performance than I did Fitzgerald Toussaint, but after reading MGoBlog's offensive UFR, Toussaint definitely is missing more holes than I thought (and I was already of the mind that he was doing a little too much dancing). Against UConn, you'd like to see those one yard losses go for two yards (at least), and those 4-5 yard runs go for double digit yardage. Of course, this has been the biggest problem for Michigan post-2011, so another mediocre performance on the ground against a bad team would not be a surprise.
- Vanilla coverage vs. passing offense. Greg Mattison has stuck with fairly conservative coverages in the secondary thus far, and probably for good reason. However, against a pass-happy team like UConn, it will be interesting to see what Mattison does if UConn's dinking and dunking translates into semi-regular gains of the standard first down variety or, worse, the dreaded big plays (of which Michigan regrettably gave up a few against hapless Akron). Whitmer threw the ball 46 times against Maryland; Michigan's defensive backs must be ready to tackle immediately. Additionally, Whitmer has thrown three picks in two games, so the odds are good that he'll gift Michigan at least one. As long as Michigan's turnover margin is no worse than last week's minus two--which isn't asking a lot--there should be no real danger of losing this game.
As strange as it is to say, this is an important game for Michigan, a sort of litmus test for many of Michigan's starters, if not all of them. While Michigan fans will want to see a smashing Bo-esque romp of a victory, I think a game marked by protection of the ball on offense and few (or zero) big plays allowed on defense will be the ticket for this one. Score: Michigan 38, UConn 14.
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