Northwestern Preview: Juncture

No, this has not nonsensically transformed into a Bulls blog. I am aware that Michigan has a football team still. Anyway, here's the first preview in a while from me (since ND, actually). Enjoy. 

Last week:"Denard will play. Don't you trust me, guys?"

Time: 12 ET (ESPN)

Place: Michigan Stadium--Ann Arbor, MI

Line: Michigan -9.5

Mood: Let's take care of business, eh?

This season, like every one before it, has sped on without your consent, like a city bus driver who sees you running up to door outside buts pull away anyway.

After a second trip up in Iowa City last season, the Wolverines entered the final triumvirate of games (Illinois, Nebraska and Ohio State) with a lot at stake and many questions left unanswered. Would the Wolverines be able to shake their offensive struggles on the road to get the win against a defensively solid Illini team? What about Nebraska? I also heard that there was some sort of looming streak against the Buckeyes that needed to be taken care of that definitely hadn't constantly been on all of our minds.

The circumstances this time around aren't exactly the same. Michigan rolls into this stretch with one more loss than they had at this point last season, this year's Iowa team is probably the weakest of either trio of opponents in question (i.e. last three games of 2011 and 2012) and the Wolverines get a much better Ohio State team on the road.

As a relatively new student at Northwestern, I took it upon myself to, you know, pay attention to Northwestern football. I watched most of--and in some cases, all (!)--the Wildcats' first five games, but I admittedly haven't been able to keep up from the Penn State game onward. So, a decent percentage of the things I will write here are colored significantly by watching them in September, FWIW.

On Offense 
Brady Hoke will continue to say things regarding Denard's status, but it's pretty clear at this point that Hoke is the Mozart of the trolling craft (yes, you the annoyed fan are indeed Salieri in this ridiculous analogy). With that said, I'm going to remain under the assumption that Devin Gardner will start until proven otherwise, which should happen at right around 11:59 a.m. ET on Saturday.

Northwestern has actually been pretty tough defensively this season, particularly against the run, which is bad news for a Michigan team that hasn't gotten much of a non-Denard ground game going against anybody this season. If Denard goes, this concern is mitigated, but that is, in fact, an "if." Northwestern sits at a respectable 43rd in defensive S&P+; of course, they are 49th in pass defense S&P+, 35th against the pass, furthering my already extensive confusion vis-a-vis the world of ADVANCED STATZ.

DC Mike Hankwitz has done a good job molding this defense into a solid run D outfit, headlined by its three linebackers, Damien Proby, Brian Nwabuisi, and the spectacularly named Chi Chi Ariguzo. Before I move on, I just want to note that Mike Hankwitz basically is Heisenberg, you guys:

Maybe we should not mess with this guy. (HT: nusports.com)

The Wildcats have had capable linebackers in the past, including some guy named Pat Fitzgerald, so it's no surprise that that is the case now. Proby and Nwabuisi lead the team in tackles (86 and 75, respectively) and Ariguzo and safety Ibraheim "Guy You Probably Know From Reading Preseason Preview Magazines" Campbell are tied at third with 67 each. That is the sign of a good run defense.

The Cats have given up 41 on the road at Syracuse, 39 at Penn State, 29 against Nebraska in a pseudo-home game and had a rough second half against Indiana (albeit one that featured an IU kickoff return for a TD from Tevin Coleman), with the Hoosiers finishing with 29 after backup Nate Sudfeld had taken over at quarterback. Otherwise, the Northwestern D has generally put the clamps down on most teams, although none of those teams are very good at the offense thing.

Unfortunately, Michigan has been debatably good on that front as well. However, this defense isn't Alabama's or Notre Dame's, obviously. For a point of reference, Iowa sits at 45th in def. S&P+, two spots behind NU.

As you'd expect, the weak link in this defense is the secondary. Campbell, to quote Hoke, is a "guy who can do some things," but he can't do it alone. Redshirt freshman corner Nick VanHoose has shown promise at times but has also been picked on at various points; the same applies for Stanford grad transfer Quinn Evans. However, the two didn't play two weeks ago against Iowa after VanHoose suffered a shoulder injury and Evans an ankle injury against Nebraska the week before. Playing backups at both corner spots against Iowa, the Wildcats made it okay, giving up only 17 points against an Iowa offense that has been absolutely disastrous minus Mark Weisman's TRUE GRIT.

As of a few days ago, it seems that VanHoose and Evans will both go Saturday.

To make a long story short, Northwestern will generally look to contain Denard and hope he doesn't complete any bombs deep like he did last season. This generally worked during the first half last season, when Denard tossed three picks. Given what we saw from Gardner last week, the Wildcats might not be in a much better position if he ends up starting.

This is the type of game that probably keeps Borges up the night before. I'm talking about the "night before the first game of the season excitement" sort of restlessness and not the "OH GOD I HAVE TO DO THIS AGAIN I HAVE A LINE MADE OF OFFICE SUPPLIES AND EVERYBODY HATES ME NO MATTER WHAT AHHH" kind.

Michigan will likely get off to a slow start again as it finds its bearings and establishes a non-zero threat to run. Once that happens, look for Borges to initiate "RexGrossmanGameplanGOINGDEEP.exe."

On Defense 
As frustrating as it has been to talk about the offense, the defense has been like a ceaseless ray of sunshine. Michigan is truly #blessed to have a DC like Greg Mattison, no question Jim.

The Wildcats have been a shifting amorphous blob of an offense, particularly at quarterback, but it would seem that they have decided to roll with Kain Colter full-time. Pocket passing freshman Trevor Siemian got some serious run early in the season, with Colter serving as a Wildcat (literally) QB/WR. Siemian attempted only one pass against Iowa, and the 'Cats only threw the ball 10 times total. That's "Big Ten football at its best."*

But wait, it's not, because Northwestern is decidedly a run-based spread outfit. The 'Cats are 13th in rushing yardage per game (236 per) and 113th in passing (162 per). If you have watched Northwestern play for even five minutes this season, this is probably not a surprise to you.

Colter is not Denard when it comes to top-end speed, but in the context of a read-option offense, that's not necessarily the most important thing. Colter, as I mentioned earlier in the season, has a particular set of skills. Of those skills, neck chopping the zone read is one which he executes masterfully, making me wish Denard could do the same every time I see it unfold.

The Wildcats have managed a 61:41 run-pass split to date. Complementing Colter's zone read sorcery is diminutive tailback Venric Mark, who has honestly been one of the most exciting players in the country. He is a threat to break a big play at almost any time. Mark has racked up 910 yards with a nice and shiny 6.1 YPC.

The Wildcats do in fact have some capable receivers, even if Kyle Prater hasn't turned out to be the instantly impactful guy that NU fans were hoping. The quartet of Tony Jones, Demetrius Fields, Rashad Lawrence and Christian Jones all have similar numbers (200s in yardage, 0-2 TDs each). The Wildcats don't pass much though, especially with Colter taking almost all of the snaps.

Michigan shut down a run-based Minnesota team last week and did a pretty solid job against Nebraska (up until the very end) despite have an offense about as effective as one composed of 11 boxes of Cheerios. Washington and Campbell should be able to get a little push up the middle when NU does pass or run little isos and draws out of the shotgun.

Where Michigan can get beat, on occasion, is on the edges. With Colter and Mark's general jukability, Michigan's edge defenders will need to be vigilant. Even the glorious Jake Ryan has had lapses on the edge this season, although they've been relatively infrequent occurrences. So, this game will basically come down to how Michigan responds in these situations.

*Hey BTN, if you haven't trademarked this yet then I hereby claim it. I'm pretty sure this is how copyright law works, right?

Special Teams 
Simply put, Michigan needs: a) no costly derps from Gallon and b) a not terrible performance from Hagerup, especially since I get the feeling that Michigan will get off to a slow start again on offense.

From the Northwestern side, Mark is also a special teams dynamo. He's been okay on kicks, but on punts he has picked up two touchdowns in 10 returns, with an average of 25 yards per. Dear Michigan ST guys: lanes, get to them!

Oh, also, kicker Jeff Budzien is 11/12 on the year with a long of 44, in addition to being perfect on extra points. He's a dependable guy who should be able to chip in some points when Northwestern drives stall.

Predictions of Negligible Worth 
Gardner's performance last week was undoubtedly a jolt of confidence for the jittery post-Denard injury Michigan fan. Yes, it was just Minnesota, but Gardner looked far more capable than he has at any point in his career; I truly believe all the talk that his time at receiver helped him last week.

Defensively, I just see a fairly one-dimensional--albeit talented and dangerous--Northwestern offense, and Greg Mattison has dreams about those sorts of things. Colter and Mark are good enough that they will find their way onto the second level from time to time, but I don't believe that this is the week that Michigan starts giving up multiple big plays.

This will come down to Jake Ryan maintaining his level of play to date and Michigan's corners, namely J.T. Floyd, bringing the appropriate support on edge runs and screens. If all goes according to plan, Northwestern will be forced to execute several grinding drives; if this happens, I'm willing to bet that at least one or two of those ends in a field goal or no points at all.

To be quite honest, I'm not sweating the whole "will he or won't he play" re: Denard. If he plays, everything will be fine and dandy and Michigan will actually have a running game. If Devin is in, assuming last week wasn't a mirage, Michigan should be more than fine. He has the arm to test Northwestern's corners deep, and he should be able to pick up some more yardage on the ground a la last week when the first couple of reads aren't there.

Northwestern will keep it close throughout. This might be the strongest defensive front seven the 'Cats have fielded in some time, and Michigan's interior OL hasn't shown the ability to dominate anybody on a consistent basis all year, let alone against solid to pretty good fronts.

Colter can make some plays through the air, but I don't know that Northwestern will really try all that much. Barring a complete defensive implosion, Michigan should hold Northwestern to around 20 points, give or take. I'm thinking that we get an encore performance of last week's game: rough beginning, triumphant middle, medals being handed out on Endor in the end.

Score: Michigan 31, Northwestern 17. 

Northwestern-Indiana: Kain Colter Has A Certain Set of Skills

Like Liam Neeson, Kain Colter has a certain set of skills. 

With Michigan off this week, I turned to my current school for football sustenance...yes, the Northwestern Wildcats. Excuse me, the undefeated Northwestern Wildcats.

I actually did not end up going to this game, but I really thought about it. I really, really did. And, really, it's the thought that counts (thousands of Northwestern fans nod in agreement).

Okay, that was not very nice, but still: what gives, Northwestern fans? Are things that different here that a 4-0 team can't sell out Ryan Field? I have no idea what the official attendance figure was, but on TV there were clearly some pretty empty patches throughout the stadium. I know it was just Indiana and all, but c'mon man.

Anyway, here are some football thoughts to keep me sane during this bye week and while deciding who to "root" for in this MSU-OSU tilt.
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Just to get this out of the way so I don't say it 30 times: Indiana is terrible, so much of this should be taken with several boulder-sized grains of salt. Nonetheless, Northwestern is not a team for which you could dismiss any single opponent with complete nonchalance. Northwestern has fielded some nice teams in the Fitzgerald era, but they haven't necessarily been immune to the egregious loss. For instance, NU lost to: New Hampshire in 2006, Duke in 2007, and Army last season.

Thus far, Northwestern has taken care of business, often with a very new and decidedly un-Northwestern-like formula: the ground game and defense. The Wildcat defense (particularly the secondary) had been an enormous weakness over the years in spite of Fitzgerald's defensive pedigree. Likewise, the running game had not been functional since Tyrell Sutton left Evanston after 2008.

After taking on three straight BCS conference foes, including an opener on the road at Syracuse, the Wildcats dispensed with all three, classily, intellectually, and generally in an agreeable manner befitting a warrior-poet-gentleman.

After tacking on a victory against the Coyotes of South Dakota last week*, the Wildcats began the Big Ten with a 2-1 Indiana team coming off a bye after losing to Brady Hoke's venerable alma mater in Muncie.

*I like to think that the South Dakota roster consists of a literal pack of coyotes running around on a football field while howling lugubriously at things.

The Offense 
Once again, Northwestern's offensive attack has largely been ground-based thus far, and that trend continued today. Northwestern sped to a 27-0 lead after its opening drive in the second half, capped by a 15-yard scamper by QB/RB/WR Kain Colter.

Redshirt sophomore pocket passer Trevor Siemian actually started the game at quarterback for NU, as the Wildcats continue to go with the poor man's version of Michigan's old Brady-Henson set up in 1998/99. Despite each QB having a distinct weakness, Northwestern has rotated the two to great effect, even if the competition to date has not exactly been exceptional (although it was better than many non-conference slates around the country).

After NU's first two drives ended in punts, Kain Colter took the reins and NU went running like Forrest Gump. The Wildcats went 80 yards on six straight runs (three from Venric Mark, three from Colter) en route to a touchdown, an 8-yard run from Colter. This is the New Northwestern, manifested in a single drive.

Siemian entered the game again to start the second frame. Powered by a Mark rush for 18 and two straight 16-yard passes to Colter and Christian Jones, the Wildcats eventually settled for a 44-yard field goal from potential Lou Groza candidate Jeff Budzien. Northwestern added another touchdown--another 8-yard run from Colter--on its next drive via some more Siemian passing and nifty rushing from Mark and backup tailback Mike Trumpy.

NU added another field goal before the end of the half to go up 20-0, and everything was coming up Milhouse.

After going up 27-0 after the second half's opening drive, Mark fumbled at the end of a 25-yard run near the IU 36, ending what likely would've been another scoring drive. NU bounded back to deliver another TD drive on the back of a 26-yard Colter run and two big passing plays from Siemian to Christian Jones and Rashad Lawrence, ending with Mark punching it in from a yard out.

With IU returning the next kickoff for a score, the score was 34-21 and the pressure was back on the offense after the defense had held the clean sheet through the first half. The Wildcats once again cut through the IU defense like Balboa cutting his way through the forests en route to the Pacific; Budzien chipped in another 29-yarder to take the lead back to 16.

Northwestern had been fairly careful with the ball to date, turning it over only three times coming into today. Unfortunately, the 'Cats coughed up a fumble and two interceptions (one from both Colter and Siemian) against the Hoosiers. The first pick turned into a missed field goal from IU and the fumble was converted via the long Kofi Hughes touchdown grab. Luckily, Siemian's INT in the fourth quarter, with NU up 39-27 and driving deep into IU territory, lead to a fairly lackadaisical three and out for IU.

It was an especially bad pick for Siemian, as he was locked onto Colter in 2004 Chad Henne fashion, but the miscue didn't end up hurting the 'Cats.

Colter then did his thing, finding holes up the middle and on the perimeter in the IU defense. He even took another rush to the house, a 30+ yard scamper that was regrettably called back for holding. Nevertheless, NU soldiered on, plugging away against a horrific IU run defense, eventually leading to yet another Colter TD run on an expertly run zone read. IU actually tackled the running back on the play, which is pretty much a zone read coach's dream. Colter then simply schooled the IU edge defender, #42 David Cooper, before running 22 yards for a relatively easy score.

With the score being 44-29 in NU's favor with only five minutes to go, the game was basically over...just kidding, it wasn't, as the NU secondary still had some derp left in the tank.

The Defense 
The other encouraging development for the Wildcats this season, other than the running game, has undoubtedly been the defense. After a shaky affair in the Carrier Dome, the NU defense has hunkered down of late, holding its last three opponents to a total of 33 points. The Wildcats weren't near the top of the rankings in total defense, turnovers forced, red zone defense, or third down defense, but they were a respectable 37th in scoring defense coming into today.

After a first half in which the Wildcats completely stonewalled the hapless Hoosiers--keeping them to 113 yards of offense and zero points--the second half resembled a dam's complete collapse, with the Hoosier offense being the oncoming flood (I'm pretty sure that's the first time that has ever been said).

The secondary issues of old began to rear their ugly head once again, as Kofi Hughes, probably Indiana's most talented player, went to work against Quinn Evans (a Stanford grad transfer) et al. After an IU touchdown drive powered mostly by some expert running from tailback Stephen Houston, Hughes reeled in two consecutive receptions of 28 and 35 yards respectively, the latter being a fairly impressive TD grab in the end zone. The NU lead was back to 13, at 27-14.

After the aforementioned 1-yard Mark TD, Indiana's Tevin Coleman returned the ensuing kickoff 96 yards for the score, representing possibly the first kickoff return for a score this season that I have actually seen live (I think).

With the score at 37-21, the IU offense went back to work near the end of the 3rd and into the 4th, executing a 7-play, 69-yard TD drive that included a 33-yard pass from backup QB Nate Sudfield (who had taken over for Cameron Coffman in the second quarter) on NU corner Nick VanHoose. IU scored and Kofi Hughes converted the two-point conversion to make it a one score game at 37-29. What had once been a blowout was no longer, and Northwestern's built up cache of defensive good will had seemingly been squandered in three quarters.

After NU went up 44-29, Sudfield completed a 46-yard bomb to Cody Latimer on Quinn Evans, taking it to the NU 11. After two straight Houston rushes and a fumbled Sudfield snap on third down, IU had to go for it on fourth, but not before a ridiculous false start penalty. After a failed fade attempt to Kofi Hughes in the right back corner, the game was essentially salted away for the Wildcats. Game blouses.

Special Teams 
Jeff Budzien has to be one of the best kickers in the country. He went 3/3 on the day, continuing his perfect mark on the season.

Punter Brandon Williams only punted twice but did a nice job, using his two opportunities to boot 45- and 46-yarders.

The kick/punt return game wasn't a factor for the Wildcats on the day, but it was for their opponent. The Hoosier took six kick returns back for an average of 36.6 yards per, including the aforementioned 96-yard score from Tevin Coleman. Northwestern can't afford to offer more capable teams that kind of space on returns going forward if the defense is to be protected.

Miscellaneous Minutiae 

• Kain Colter. Colter is a poor man's Denard, but if there is anything that Colter absolutely does better than Denard, it is the zone read. I was honestly kind of jealous watching him run it to perfection over and over again. Yes, it was only Indiana yada yada yada, but Colter seems to have the basically innate quick twitch decision-making with the zone read that Denard for whatever reason hasn't really ever had. Of course, it remains to be seen if Colter can continue to do this against teams with some semblance of a defense; he passed the ball three times today for two yards and an interception. 
• More offense-related awe: the Wildcats amassed 704 total yards (!), including 6.8 YPC. IU is clearly very terrible, but that is impressive nonetheless. FWIW, it broke NU's single game school record. 

• Mark Five. GET IT, MARK FIVE. Okay I'm done. Despite his stature, Mark continues to plug away and deliver big plays for NU on the ground as the QB situation continues to sort itself out. Mark ran for 139 yards on 26 carries (4.8 YPC) and a touchdown. The only blemish on the day for the 5'8'' Texan was a fumble near the end of a long run into IU territory. 

• Drops. NU has a surprisingly deep group of wide receivers, but from what I've seen thus far this season, drops have been an issue from time to time. Late in the third quarter, Demetrius Fields dropped an easy pass in the end zone that really shouldn't have been. It lead to a field goal and ultimately didn't matter, but it's just something to monitor going forward. 

• Good times, bad times. All kidding aside, IU does have some offensive talent, namely Kofi Hughes and Stephen Houston. Still, IU's offensive explosion in the second half should give NU fans some pause after. After being held in check in the first half, IU scored 29 in the second--albeit with the help of a kickoff return for a TD--and amassed over 300 total yards in that time. NU corners, Nick VanHoose and Quinn Evans, were victimized deep from time to time. The Hoosiers also ran the ball at 5.7 yards a pop, which is a bit worrisome for the 'Cats with run first teams like Michigan, Michigan State, and Nebraska still left on the divisional docket. 

• An injury note. One potential explanation for the secondary's collapse: star safety Ibraheim Campbell left with an injury after a pretty jarring hit on an IU offensive player. I don't remember seeing him out there in the second half, so, take that FWIW. 

• Jeff Budzien=the Robbie Gould of Evanston. It was another perfect day for the NU kicker, who went 3/3 with a long of 44. He's 8/8 on the year, although he has yet to attempt anything past 50 yards out. So, like I said...Robbie Gould. NU won't be able to run roughshod over the Big Ten--yes, even the terrible, lowly Big Ten--the way it has done through five games, so I have to think that Budzien will get many more chances to test out that leg. 

• Well, this was fun. Michigan bye weeks are horrific, horrific things, but it was nice to get into a game on some level this week. I will be rooting for the Wildcats the rest of the way (as long as it doesn't affect Michigan's chances to win the division, of course). I'll play myself out with this once again: