Michigan 32, Florida State 33: The (third) one that got away

Some games are close, others "close," others somewhere in between.

Michigan's Orange Bowl matchup against Florida State Friday night fell somewhere in that in-between No Man's Land. After all, Michigan lost by one on a last-minute Seminoles field goal. They made some big plays in the second half, namely Mike McCray's pick six and, later, Chris Evans juked a Florida defender out of this dimension to put Michigan ahead with 1:57 to play.

That juke was the future in motion, an example of what can't be taught and what Michigan desperately needs more of: raw, unmitigated explosion. The ability to make people not just miss, but miss so badly that they fall to the ground, questioning what is up and what is down. It's the type of play elite talents make in big moments. Grinding opponents into dust on 10-play drives is fun, but Michigan has usually done that because it had no other option. But when you have the ability to take a shortcut, you take it, and that's what a player like Evans brings to the table.

In Evans, and some other promising players on offense (and, hopefully, some on defense, to be unleashed next season), Michigan has a game-changing talent. Unfortunately for Michigan, it didn't quite have enough of it this season when it counted, especially on offense. A close loss at an offensively challenged Iowa team, a brutal loss at Ohio State featuring five fourth-quarter yards and a bowl game with just 252 yards of offense, 4.3 yards per attempt through the air and this on the ground ...

... and it's safe to say Michigan's fall from possible eliteness to a degree or two below that starts here.

Even so, Michigan had a chance to pull out a 2012 Sugar Bowl-esque victory (I was at that game in New Orleans, and it was the kind of game that almost left you feeling compelled to apologize to the opposing fans for winning). Alas, 65 yards of Keith Gavin kick return yardage later and the Noles were in position to comfortably drive for a score, which they got ... by throwing at Jourdan Lewis in the corner of the end zone.

Go figure. Sometimes there's not much to say. Things happen. When Dalvin Cook runs around and past your defense a few times like they're painfully limited pawns on a chess board, that's one thing. When a team gets your All-American corner for a touchdown in a key situation?

Well, that's football.

---

When a season concludes, especially one like this one, there's always an urge to categorize it, to tag it, to fit it into a neat, little box.

Was it a "successful" season or was it a "disappointment"?

In truth, it's a little bit of both.

Michigan's three losses came by a total of five points. It's disappointing that with this collection of talent, Michigan wasn't able to find the one or two plays it needed to join the playoff field.

But, only four teams go, and only one team wins. If we're categorizing all seasons that don't end in a playoff berth or a national title as failures, just about every fan should be disappointed. That's no way to live.

What is disappointing is the still lingering conference title drought. As a high school sophomore in 2004, I never thought that would be Michigan's last conference crown for a long, long time.

Here we are, though. Next year, Michigan probably won't be a playoff-caliber squad, simply by virtue of what they need to replace on defense -- I do think, however, that competing for the division crown and a trip to Indianapolis are within reach, once the early-season growing pains are sorted out.

While the 2016 season ended with a thud, it can't be said enough: Michigan has won 10-games in consecutive seasons, just two years after going 5-7 and getting a coach fired. Yes, Hoke recruited fine in parts, but a failure to identify offensive talent, namely on the line, hamstrung Michigan this year.

Right now, for all of Michigan's defensive talent, that's the difference between them and the cream of the crop: Michigan's line just couldn't stand up. For further example of what that looks like, watch the tape of the Ohio State-Clemson game.

Until Michigan upgrades its line and fields upper-echelon skill position talent, its defense can never be good enough to carry it to a title, where it is at this point a pretty solid bet they'd have to beat Alabama.

One day. It didn't come together this year, and likely won't in 2017 by virtue of roster turnover.

After that? Anything is possible.

---
Of course, no season finale is complete without fond reminiscences over the players taking their abilities elsewhere, whether into the real world or the NFL.

This year is especially heavy on the heart, as Michigan loses a cast of likeable, not to mention very good, football players. Jourdan Lewis, Jabrill Peppers, Chris Wormley, Ryan Glasgow, Ben Gedeon, Taco Charlton, Channing Stribling, Delano Hill, Dymonte Thomas -- and that's just defense.

The odds are good Michigan will never have another Taco -- both in name and in his particular combination of size, speed and agility. While Michigan lacked game-changing ability on offense, there was no shortage of it on defense, thanks to players like Charlton. He was a bringer of doom, a destroyer of poor, unprepared tackles.

Lewis? Despite his size, he blanketed receivers, with such grace and ease -- even when a receiver seemed open, that was never the case.



As far as interceptions go, that play falls in the same category as Charles Woodson's in the 1997 Michigan State game. That's something. No one will remember the particulars of this year's defensive slugfest against Wisconsin, but they'll remember that play -- it's hard to forget something like that.

As for the defensive linemen, it will be some time before a Michigan defensive line is so unflinchingly dominant again. Wormley is a guy who has seemingly been around for eight years -- like Mike Martin, he's an example of a human being who is impossibly agile for his size. Watching him play, it's still hard to believe that Wormley weighs more than 300 pounds. Losing an agile, versatile planetoid on the defensive line will be a major loss, to say the least.

As for Glasgow, his journey -- and his brother's before him -- is all you need to know when considering why some think Jordan Glasgow could be something far more than a special teamer. Whatever it is, that family has it. Michigan missed Ryan Glasgow's presence late last season when he was knocked out with an injury -- they'll certainly miss it next year when he's beginning what should be a long and productive NFL career.

Peppers hasn't officially announced his departure, but it's safe to assume he's probably gone (rather, it would be a surprise if he returned, simply based on his draft projections). All in all, it feels like only yesterday when he committed to Brady Hoke's Michigan: a different time, a different world. Fans were robbed of a full 2014 season when he went down with an injury, but he entered the fray in 2015 and truly began to shine brightly this season. Few Michigan players, if any at all, have ever brought his overall speed, instincts and playmaking ability on defense and special teams. I only wonder if Michigan couldn't have done more with him; but that's over and done now.

For our purposes now, I'll say this: it might cause some whiplash when opposing teams run successful screens next season, or Michigan's punt returner, whoever it is, doesn't make the first few would-be tackles miss like they're not even there.

All of the above is not to discredit the offense, of course. Amara Darboh and Jehu Chesson, for example, had some big moments in their career. While Darboh had some unfortunate drops and lacked big-play speed, he was a mostly reliable option and a guy who could usually churn out some tough yards after contact. With Chesson, we'll always have the Florida game.

Then, of course, there's Jake Butt, whose Michigan career unfortunately ended on a sour note. (An aside, but for what it's worth, my personal opinion is that if the player wants to sit out a non-playoff bowl game to get ready for the draft, I have no problem with it. Would it be disappointing, from a selfish fan's point of view? Sure. But, the truth hurts: any bowl game not involving Alabama, Washington, Ohio State and Clemson this bowl season meant nothing in the grand scheme of things.) Like Wormley, Butt offered a unique combination of size, speed and technical ability. When Butt dropped an easy pass in a game this season, I was shocked, because it happened so infrequently.  When Jake Rudock to Wilton Speight needed a play, they could throw it up to him and count on him coming down with the ball more often than not. Michigan has some promising tight ends waiting to step up, but none will be Butt right away, if ever -- after all, most would probably agree he's the best tight end in program history.

The worst part is that none of these guys will play for Michigan again. They were all fun to watch, in good times and bad. It's a shame their times as Wolverines has to come to an end, but all things do.

And while 2016 ended on a down note, the season brought far more good than bad. And, eventually, Michigan will find itself on the winning side of the sort of games it lost this season, when a play or two flipped things.

It'll all come together, in due time. For now, fans will just have to be patient, and remember how things were not too long ago.

Until then, enjoy the ride.

Week 1: The princess is in another castle

Week 1

The first week of a college football season is almost always anticlimactic, failing to deliver on an offseason's worth of pent-up excitement. 

The opening slate typically features an array of snoozers, like a pedestrian hotel continental breakfast. You'll get just enough, but not what you really want, like a omeleteer serving up whatever egg-based dish you like at 7 in the morning. No, you'll take the toast and wake up to the season with a generic roast and USA Today. 

Take, for example, Michigan versus Hawaii: a classic Week 1 no-doubter. The game was over before you could say "Colt Brennan." Michigan rolled, 63-3, and it was fun until it wasn't, the point where every fan of a brand-name team wonders if there is even a point to this particular contest and if it should even be played at all. When one starts to truly feel bad for the other team is the exact moment in which that realization of the game's lack of utility takes root. 

Michigan, a team of four- and five-stars, experienced and talented, versus jetlagged Hawaii, which had already given up 51 points in a game before even coming to Ann Arbor: Welcome to opening weekend. 

The Wolverines won, but like wins scored by so many other teams dotting the top 25, the win means little. I't's Level 1, a step, the initial foray into the great unknown. 

The princess is in another castle. 

***

Then there's Alabama. 

Alabama, winners of last season's national title, lost its usual bevy of talent to the NFL, reigniting another round of The Process. 

The Crimson Tide opened with USC, a matchup of name brands. Coke and Pepsi, Rolls Royce and Bentley, Apple and Microsoft -- you get the idea. 

Alabama even had the courtesy to let the Trojans hang around for about a quarter. USC struck first with a field goal, but they would never lead again. Alabama started the game with Blake Barnett at quarterback, but finished it with Jalen Hurts, who offers a scary thing: an Alabama quarterback who is an active playmaker for the offense, as opposed to the parade of game-managing types of recent years. 

Hurts fumbled early, but proceeded to dissect the Trojans defense like a film class recitation one might take on the USC campus. Hurts started things with a 39-yard strike to ArDarius Stewart, then Alabama added a field goal and a pick-six to enter the half up 17-3. Against anyone not named Cam Newton, that means the game is over. 

And it was. The Tide rolled to a 52-6 win. Maybe USC isn't that good, but even the most cynical observer of the Trojans program probably doesn't think they're 52-6 bad.  

Once again, everyone is chasing the team from Tuscaloosa. 

And yet, despite the Tide's aura of invincibility, they have been prone to the occasional slip-up. In recent years, that has been at the hands of Ole Miss, who the Tide face in Week 3 in Oxford. The Rebels are fresh off of a crushing collapse against Florida State in Orlando -- maybe they'll be eager to prove that was a fluke? 

Or, maybe, Alabama will see them coming this time, particularly after losses to the Rebels in 2014 and 2015. If there's one thing you don't want, it's an Alabama that sees you. 

---

Speaking of, Florida State seemed destined to both get blown out and get its quarterback, freshman Deondre Francois, injured Monday night against Ole Miss. 

The Rebels raced out to an early 7-0 lead, scoring in under two minutes. They eventually led 28-6 after a 10-play, 80-yard touchdown drive. Jimbo Fisher and everyone else on the FSU sideline looked bereft of answers or words, like someone who has just missed a flight. 

Francois and Co. couldn't get much of anything going, much of it the fault of an offensive line that played like five large pieces of rice paper. Even star tailback Dalvin Cook (23 carries, 91 yards), with a free run to the end zone, simply dropped the ball out of bounds at the 3-yard line (FSU would eventually have to settle for a field goal). 

Nothing was working for the Seminoles -- another top-10 team appeared ready to topple. 

Then, having enough of it, Francois started firing in the face of heavy pressure. I'm not sure what happened or what unseen switch was flipped, but the redshirt freshman started making throws even fifth-year seniors can never hope to make. 

Less than six minutes into the third quarter, FSU led, 29-28. Blink and everything can change in an instant. In the span of less than a quarter's worth of NBA action, the Seminoles turned a 22-point deficit into a one-point lead. 

Questions now abound about Ole Miss, which looked unstoppable to start and completely flustered to finish. Whatever the Ole Miss season becomes, this was a hello to the college football world from Francois (whose debut compares favorably to the guy who recently won FSU a national championship). 

A tricky trip to Louisville on Sept. 17 beckons for the 'Noles, not to mention a home game against UNC followed by a trip to Miami. Then, of course, there's Clemson on Oct. 29. 

Can they run the table? Maybe, if Francois' brilliance on Monday night is any indication. But the offensive line will need to protect him and get Cook going, or they might not even get a chance to set up a matchup of potential undefeateds against Clemson. 

And as we all know, freshman quarterbacks usually mean a slip-up is just around the corner. 

---

Clemson went down to Auburn's Jordan-Hare Stadium, riding as high as one could on the heels of a national championship game defeat. After that loss to Alabama, everyone acknowledged Deshaun Watson and Co. as legitimate, an anointment that can these days only come after going head-to-head with Alabama and nearly winning on the biggest stage. This is "little ole Clemson" no longer. "Clemsoning" was once a word with meaning, but has sharply disappeared from the college football lexicon, lost in the gradually roiling seas of language transformation. "Clemsoning" is Middle English of yore -- in the dictionary, it's marked "archaic." 

Now, some might be down on the Tigers after a less-than-impressive 19-13 win. Watson went 19-of-24 for 248 yards (1 TD, 1 INT). Wayne Gallman carried it 30 times for 123 yards. Mike Williams caught nine balls for 174 yards, dismissing the Auburn secondary as if it wasn't there. Hunter Renfrow, hero of the national title game, fittingly reeled in a key touchdown grab. 

The score is not impressive, but the result and the individual performances are worthy of praise. Clemson didn't start with Hawaii or Furman or Wofford or Tumbleweed State -- they started with an SEC foe on the road. 

Now, say what you will about Auburn, a team with no offense led by an offense-first head coach, but Clemson doesn't need style points like, say, Houston does. The win is enough. 

There were hairy moments, moments when Clemson appeared destined to fall into one of Bowser's many lava pits or run into a whirling dungeon fire bar. 

But time expired, and Clemson found itself at the end, meeting Toad. The princess is in another castle, he says. 

Things lighten up for the Tigers the next few weeks; that is, until Lamar Jackson and Louisville roll into town Oct. 1. 

---

The madness continued Sunday night in Austin, when Texas took down Notre Dame with an 18-wheeler and a freshman gunslinger. 

Both teams used two quarterbacks, but the Longhorns were far more effective in their deployment, buoyed by freshman Shane Buechele's 280 passing yards and Tyrone Swoopes' three rushing touchdowns. Meanwhile, Malik Zaire got the start for Notre Dame, and even got the first series of the second half, but proved ineffective. Deshone Kizer took over down the stretch, finishing 15-of-24 for 215 yards and five touchdown passes. Kizer, a Toledo native, makes one wonder: What if he now wore the winged helmet instead? 

After 6-7 and 5-7 seasons to kick off the Charlie Strong era, this was one he, and Texas, badly needed. It's one thing to ambush a much better Oklahoma team in a rivalry game like they did last season -- it's another to beat a team like Notre Dame in a nonconference tilt. 

Like many of the other teams discussed here, Notre Dame's fate is yet to be determined. Texas could turn out to be good, and this loss would just mark an unfortunate loss concurrent with the rise of the Longhorns. 

Notre Dame will have a chance to collect itself and get back on track with a contest against Michigan State on Sept. 17. A loss there, and the outlook for Notre Dame takes on a blue-gray hue that's more gray than blue. 

---

The opening weekend was full of the usual array of upsets, pseudo-upsets and near-upsets. Northwestern won 10 games last year but couldn't do enough to stem the tide that was the Western Michigan Broncos, who rowed their boats onto the shores of Lake Michigan and claimed the City of Evanston for Kalamazoo County. 

Mike Leach's Washington State Cougars proceeded to plunder the good will of a nine-win 2015 season by losing to Eastern Washington, at home. 

Oklahoma fell against Houston, much to no one's surprise. That's not to say that many would have thought a Houston win a certainty, but its possibility was seen a mile away in the pensive hours of the long, long offseason. Houston will both take its long shot at a playoff shot, plus the more likely possibility of a conference upgrade. 

Indiana led FIU 12-10 at the half. Michigan State beat Furman 28-13. Tennessee just barely avoided casting themselves in "Appalachian State: The Sequel." No. 16 UCLA crawled back from a 24-9 deficit at Texas A&M only to lose in overtime. The Aggies appear to have a quarterback, but check back later, as folks thought the same thing for the last two seasons with Kenny Hill and Kyle Allen, who both now play at different Texas schools. 

Week 1 is also about noise, much of it meaningless. Is Tennessee that bad? Probably not. Is Texas A&M "back"? Texas? Who knows. Michigan State? Well, they beat Western Michigan by 13 in 2013 and again by 13 last season, and they went 13-1 and 12-2 in those seasons, both ending with conference championship. 

At this point, you simply shrug and move on. That's all you can do. 

---

College football is a constantly unfolding story, with climactic moments not woven in but thrown in seemingly at random. Rather, it's a collection of short stories, anchored by a central theme but by no means wholly tethered to it. 

Results are like the stars -- sometimes you try to connect the dots, but you'll often have to take someone else's word that the Big Dipper or Orion are in fact up there. 

They are, but you have to wait .Wait for them to come into focus -- and don't get distracted by that fleeing comet, or you might lose the picture, as the sky reverts to a sea of bright lights, apart and alone. 

HTR's Top 25: Week 6

Previous dubious assertions: HTR's Official Meaningless Preseason Top 25, Week 1, Week 2, Week 3, Week 4, Week 5

With most of college football having exited the realm of Cupcake City, we were treated to our first weekend of mostly good football. This past Saturday was rife with upsets, derailed hype trains, and general shenanigans. 

"Stop it with the dumb penalties, fergodsakes!" 

(HT: Mike DeSimone)

Rank	Team
1	Alabama
2	Oregon
3	South Carolina
4	West Virginia
5	Florida
6	Notre Dame
7	Ohio State
8	Kansas State
9	LSU
10	Oregon State
11	USC
12	Florida State
13	Texas
14	Oklahoma
15	Georgia
16	Louisville
17	Stanford
18	Texas A&M
19	Rutgers
20	Cincinnati
21	Mississippi State
22	Iowa State
23	TCU
24	Michigan
25	Louisiana Tech

Out: Northwestern, Nebraska, UCLA, Washington, Texas Tech

• Northwestern...no longer undefeated. All of you that predicted an Alabama-Northwestern national title game, I'm sorry. The dream season is over. No completely unironic--no, really--Northwestern fight song linking this week. 

• This year in college football insanity: Oregon State, in the top 10. This is "expectations exceeded" personified. I'm not sure how Mike Riley has navigated this team to a 4-0 record a season after losing to Sacramento State, but he has and is clearly a graduate of the Bill Snyder School of Sorcery. On the not so bright side, Oregon State QB Sean Mannion is out indefinitely after sustaining a knee injury against the Washington State Pirates. Luckily, OSU has a manageable slate throughout the rest of this month (@BYU, Utah, @Washington, Arizona State). If Oregon State can somehow get through that stretch without a loss, Riley has to be the coach of the year, right? 

• Other dreams vanquished. Texas Tech finally fell this past weekend after surprising basically everyone by playing this thing called "defense" during its first four contests. Unfortunately, the Fightin' Tubervilles fell to the Sooners in Lubbock. The Red Raiders gave up 17 points in each of the second and third quarters. With that said, the TTU defense still did okay, giving up a relatively okay 4.2 YPC and under 400 yards of total offense. An Oklahoma pick 6 essentially ended the game midway through the 3rd quarter, taking the score to 38-13, putting it out of reach even for a pass-happy offense like TTU's. 

• Michigan: back! Not back as in "returning to glory" back, but hey, Michigan's schedule has been tough and a thumping on the road against what figures to be a bowl team of some sort is enough to vault the Wolverines back into the top 25 for now. It means literally nothing but hey, being ranked 24th feels much better than being a "receiving votes" team. 

• This week in my unrealistic and/or irrational preseason conjecturing. Virginia continues to plummet, making me look like a fool after spending the offseason hyping up Mike London. The Cavs lost at Duke, 42-17, putting them at 2-4 halfway through this 2012 season. Everything about that last sentence is really, really bad. 

• Speaking of ACC failings...the Seminoles Florida Stated it up this weekend, losing to an NC State team that got destroyed by Tennessee. Virginia Tech continues to slide, adding a loss to UNC to its resume. Boston College lost to Army, Miami didn't even put up any sort of fight against Notre Dame in Chicago, and Georgia Tech lost again (also dropping them to 2-4). To make matters worse, the Ramblin' Wreck also relieved defensive coordinator Al Groh of his duties on Monday. Times are not good in Atlanta these days, and I'm not even talking about the Braves. Oh, by the way, Duke is 5-1. DUKE IS 5-1. 

• West Virginia: legit. Okay, that defense is still very, uh, shaky, but a win in Austin is a win in Austin. It's fairly clear that, unlike Missouri, West Virginia will be perfectly fine in its new conference. 

Miscellaneous Minutiae, 8/9/2012

FSU trivia to impress your friends with. Question: who was the last Florida State wide receiver/tailback to catch/rush for 1,000 yards in a single season? I'll give you a second. Done pretending to think? Well, if you said Anquan Boldin and Warrick Dunn, you are either: a) a FSU fan b) Phil Steele or something or c) somebody who just pulled the "smart phone under the table on trivia night" cheating maneuver.

If you didn't know the answer, then you are probably a little bit shocked (at least I was, particularly with the answer for tailback. Warrick Dunn? Wow. I'm not sure there is another bit of trivia that truly shows how far FSU had fallen during the last five or six years of the Bowden era. Matt Hinton writes writes this year's "Is FSU for real?" post, which is especially topical after I, for the second year in a row, plugged my nose and picked FSU to do some nice things in 2012:

The skill positions have been no less of a revolving door. Devonta Freeman and Rashad Greene were encouraging in their debuts, but hardly revelatory enough to peg either as an emerging star in an offense that has had astonishingly few of them over the last decade: FSU hasn't produced a 1,000-yard receiver since Anquan Boldin in 2002, or a 1,000-yard rusher since Warrick Dunn in 1996.

Kind of crazy, right?

Hey, you guys. Did you know that people in the South care so much about football? It's true. They just want it more. That's why they're so good. Rick Bragg, author of All Over But The Shoutin', actually wrote this:

An award-winning author of books on Southern history, Rable is not a native Southerner but grew up in another football incubator, in Lima, Ohio, in the swirl of Ohio State-Michigan, rooting for the Buckeyes. He came down here to see real obsession. He once exited Tiger Stadium as the faithful chanted: "Go to hell, Ole Miss, go to hell."

"And," he says, "we weren't playing Ole Miss."

Ah, yes. "Real obsession." That can definitely only be found in Dixie.

It's difficult to be too hard on Bragg because he is speaking as a sort of chronicler of the South as opposed to an active participant and/or endorser of its most ridiculous manifestations of insanity. He even mentions that he does not tie his worth to the outcome of the game, which is a nice sentiment that I like because many people have that problem.

Still, the entire piece was tiresome, worse, even, than an SEC team's fans chanting "S-E-C!" after a bowl victory instead of singing their school's fight song. Thankfully, we have Spencer Hall to make fun of these sorts of caricaturized, hackneyed drivel:

One time, COLORFUL REGIONAL ANECDOTE.

My uncle once worked at a turtle factory, where they make turtles and sometimes shotguns and pies. South Carolina had just beaten Georgia, and the plant manager was a big ol' South Carolina fan. He was just standing there, a-hootin' and a-hollerin' about, "woooo Go Cocks" when my uncle just up and popped him in the temple with a .38. THAT'S DEDICATION. Second degree manslaughter got the word "laughter" in it, and that's something I learned by watching Gallagher.

Homespun folk wisdom for its own sake, devoid of real depth or any sort of probing complexity, is an unfortunate way to have to describe something written by a dyed-in-the-wool Southerner like Bragg. I almost feel bad striking at something that is obviously heartfelt, but it is lazy writing, not to mention a passive-aggressive, literarily dressed up version of hollering "S-E-C" over and over again in some poor Yankee's face. 

On "luck." In light of this week's Big 12 previews and the discussion of "luck" with respect to Kansas State's win total and Oklahoma State's defense (i.e. TO margin), this post from Bill C on the issue of luck pertaining to Oklahoma State's 2011 defensive performance was fairly topical:

Let's summarize: Oklahoma State's defense was absolutely a bit lucky in 2011. They picked off about five more passes than they probably should have, and they recovered about four more fumbles than they probably should have. A swing of nine turnovers can obviously make an enormous difference over the course of the season. (They did, after all, benefit from about 3.4 turnover luck points per game.) That said, this defense wasn't based entirely on lucky bounces. Yes, OSU allowed a ton of yards. (They ranked 107th in yards per game allowed.) That's what happens when you a) face Arizona, Tulsa, Texas A&M, Missouri, Baylor, Kansas State, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Stanford, and b) do so with your own offense running at a nuclear pace (and therefore face a ton of plays). 

Michigan was also lucky last season, in the colloquial sense as well as the statistical "well that probably wouldn't have happened in most trials" one. Per Bill C, thing that are not attributable to luck include defending passes (i.e. interceptions+PBUs) and forced fumbles. Things that are mostly luck-based? Fumble recovery and interceptions. The whole "is fumble recovery rate mostly luck?" debate is one that has raged on many times at MGoBlog, and the best answer that I can come up with is this: it is luck and it isn't, which isn't much of an answer at all. Is a certain outcome attributable to "luck" if that outcome's likelihood (i.e. a recovered fumble) can be increased with a specific and narrow focus from a coaching staff? I would say yes and no. You can practice it, but at the end of the day a football is a prolate spheroid that bounces without rhyme or reason, and when you throw a pile of 250-320 pound dudes into the equation, cause and effect is like in a jungle of white noise. Something something preparation something opportunity.

As we all know, Michigan was tied for first in fumble recoveries last year with, you guessed it...Oklahoma State. I will be completely honest. I have the utmost confidence in these coaches, but there's a bubbling undercurrent of worry when you combine the above, the loss of 75% of the defensive line, and a frightening lack of depth at several positions. On the bright side, there aren't very many Big Ten offenses that appear to be exceedingly scary.

Underneath Michigan's #6 scoring defense was a team that was 36th in 3rd down conversion percentage defense, 39th in run defense, and, as mentioned, 1st in fumble recoveries. Against the better offenses on the schedule, namely Notre Dame and Virginia Tech (and Ohio State, obviously), Michigan was decidedly a bend-but-don't break group. Take Martin, RVB, and Heininger away from that defense and that dam starts to get quite a bit leakier, the margin of error smaller.

Of course, guys have gotten better over the summer. I don't mean this to be completely doom and gloom. Michigan's back 7, while not exactly supremely athletic, returns intact and should be very good.  The defensive line has its own questions: Campbell, Roh's move to SDE, Ryan's potential move to WDE, Jibreel Black on the inside, whether or not guys like Washington give us anything, and the overall readiness of Ondre Pipkins.

Instead of thinking about the dispassionate pendulum of turnover "luck" swinging back the other way counter to Michigan's interests, I'm just going to keep saying "trust the coaches" and playing the Jake Ryan running down David Wilson play over and over until September 1st.

Alabama secondary. Some general fluff about the Alabama secondary, Saban's favorite positional group and object of much spleen and OCD-ing. As mentioned in exhaustive detail during the position previews that I did a while back, the Tide have to replace three starters in the secondary, all NFL draft picks (Dre Kirkpatrick, Mark Barron, DeQuan Menzie). FS Robert Lester returns, but somebody needs to fill the shoes of the departed top-10 pick Mark Barron at SS. DC Kirby Smart on Vinnie Sunseri (son of new Tennessee DC Sal Sunseri):

"He's not Mark Barron, he's not trying to be Mark Barron; he's trying to be Vinnie and he's done that well," Smart said. "He makes a lot of big plays."

Well, we'll see about that. As for Sunseri's challengers:

Sophomore HaHa Clinton-Dix should also see significant action, especially when Alabama goes to its nickel and dime packages. Five-star freshman Landon Collins, who boasts a strong 6-foot, 202-pound frame, certainly looks the part of an SEC safety but will have to pick up Saban's and Smart's system quickly if he hopes to make an immediate impact.

Clinton-Dix has been talked about as an option at corner as well, so this is no surprise. Either way, all options here are very talented but young and inexperienced. I would imagine that Al Borges would have to find a way to scheme against this relative weakness (and I mean relative).

IT'S RAWLS-ERRING TIME. First of all, official position re: Toussaint. If he plays against Alabama, I would be fairly disappointed.

With that out of the way, I've already figured Toussaint's absence for that game into my worldview, so it's time to think about the backups. Al Borges made an explicit nod to sophomore mooseback Thomas Rawls, which isn't so much a depth chart surprise, really, but an explicit nod from this coaching staff is something worth clinging to on this day, August 9th, 2 Anno Hokeini. 

"We're just going to the next guy -- we're not really changing anything," Borges said during a news conference at Schembechler Hall. "Thomas Rawls is going to be that next guy. Vince is going to do what he's done, and on we go.

 Ramp up the speculation machine, but I have to think that Toussaint is not playing on September 1st. Anyway, in theory a guy like Rawls being Michigan's main option is nice against a team like Alabama. In theory. For a power back to get anything going, you need a line built to block for that sort of back, something that Michigan decidedly does not have. I don't care how "angry" Rawls runs, but I'm pretty much having visions of Rawls having to run through guys in the backfield just to get back to the line of scrimmage. A power back that hasn't really proven anything other than the fact that he can run over Jarrod Wilson plus a line that is good to very end at tackle but not exactly powerful in the interior, seems to me a recipe for a 10-12 carry, thirty-something type performance.

For some reason, I think that Stephen Hopkins will have his number called many times on 9/1. Michigan needs to do just enough to afford Denard some credibility and a modicum of space when he does in fact tuck it and run. Borges name dropped Rawls, Vincent Smith, and Justice Hayes, but I think Hopkins has to have his best game of his career of Michigan is going to even match their anemic Sugar Bowl output.

More? UMHoops on Zak Irvin's summer. Spoiler alert: he's very good. Dana Holgorsen got himself a 6-year extension at WVU. That noise was the collective resigned exhalation of Big 12 defensive coordinators everywhere.

From Stewart Mandel's mailbag, he says that Michigan "probably should [be ranked #1]" if Michigan beats Alabama. That would be cool.

ACC Atlantic Preview: The Unpredictable Ones

Already blabbered about: SEC West, SEC East, ACC Coastal 
I took on the fairly straightforward Coastal division yesterday, where everything's coming up Milhouse Virginia Tech. Let's talk a little bit about the Atlantic division, if for no other reason than to help me (and you) commit to memory which teams are in which division (don't lie, you don't know either). 


Prologue
Florida State, after winning 10 games in 2010, entered the 2011 season with the standard amount of hype. This time, however, there was a pervading sense that maybe just maybe this time it was for real, that on the back of a stout defense and EJ Manuel's play at quarterback, the Noles would be a legitimate national contender once again. This was yours truly circa last August:

This might end up making me look really stupid but I think this is FINALLY the year that Florida State is legitimate once again. Replacing Ponder might be an issue, but EJ Manuel is not exactly chopped liver (talent-wise, at least). He will have to grow up fast with a home date against the Sooners coming in the third week of the schedule. The ACC is fairly mediocre once again, and with no Virginia Tech on the regular season schedule, the Seminoles have an outside shot at a BCS title game berth in my humble opinion. Plus, second year coaches and whatnot. 

That didn't exactly work out. I'm not sure why I decided to trust in Florida State last season, but it predictably backfired, as the Noles, after losing a close primetime game at home against Oklahoma (who turned out to be good but not exactly transcendent), went on to lose two more, @ Clemson and more embarrassingly @Wake Forest. FSU as developed a strange habit out of losing to Wake Forest of late, one that I can't really explain. That's been FSU of the last decade or so, though: incredibly inconsistent, prone to fiery epic collapses while still remaining one of the most talented teams around (according to the scouting services, at least). This sounds very familiar.

Luckily for the Noles, they went on to win out save for a one-point home loss on November 19th against Mike London's improved Cavaliers. Although FSU recovered nicely last season, the home loss against UVA further underscored the fact that the patina of invincibility that once seemed to emanate from the field at Doak Walker has completely worn away over time; the Cavaliers had not won at Doak in their previous eight trips before last season's late game triumph.

For all the e-ink spilled regarding FSU, it was Clemson that won the Atlantic division in 2011. Yes, the always entertaining nexus of EDSBS commenters' faux ire verging on ironic approval. For years, Clemson has been known as the talented but incredibly underachieving team. Clemson has always struck me and many others as the most SEC-esque of all the ACC schools in a number of ways. However, the Tigers have not been able to position themselves as a team that can make noise on the national stage as Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Florida have in the last six years. After Dabo Swinney took over for Tommy Bowden midway through the 2008 season, he led Clemson to 9-5 and 6-7 records in his first two full seasons in town before leading the Tigers to a 10-4 record and their first ACC championship since 1991 last season.

Clemson started off 8-0, and like many, each week I had to make some sort of "Clemson is still somehow undefeated" comment during my weekly ranking post. Things fell apart near the end, as the Tigers lost by two touchdowns at Georgia Tech, then got killed in consecutive weeks on the road at N.C. State and South Carolina, the former being one of the more perplexing losses of the season for any team, anywhere. On the bright side, the Tigers finally broke through and won the conference and made it to a BCS game. Whether Dabo Swinney can take this program any further remains to be seen, but Clemson is certainly paying its coordinators--OC Chad Morris and new DC Brent Venables--enough to indicate that they are serious about winning.

Also Clemson-related, but since I don't know where else to put this, please look at the caption under the picture on Swinney Wikipedia profile: tremendous and likely accurate. This is why the young people look to Wikipedia first for their most rigorous scholastic exertions.

The rest of the division is a sea of teams existing anywhere on the spectrum from outright horrible (Maryland) to mediocre (N.C. State). Maryland was simply horrific in every facet of the game, including their choice of jersey design. They finished 2-10 (1-7), with their only meaningful win coming at home to start the season on a Monday night against Miami; the other win came against Towson. To make things worse, QB1 Danny O'Brien transferred out to Wisconsin.

Boston College was similarly bad, going 4-8 (3-5) under third year HC Frank Spaziani, who is, if you look really hard, basically just a strange combination of Stan Van Gundy and Tom Selleck.
    += 

Wake Forest and N.C. State are the interesting teams to watch in this division outside of the obvious favorites (Clemson and FSU). Under long time head coach Jim Grobe, the Demon Deacons went 6-7 en route to a topsy turvy season that sent them to a bowl game for the first time since 2008. I say topsy turvy because without having watched the games and looking at their 2011 results, you'd be liable to think that somebody was just picking scores out of a hat for this WF team. After starting the season with an OT loss at Syracuse, WF rattled off four straight wins before getting thumped at Virginia Tech. Things fell apart after that, as they went 2-4 the rest of the way, not including the bowl game loss against Mississippi State. They were able to beat divisional foes FSU and N.C. State but got destroyed at UNC and somehow lost to Vanderbilt at home 41-7 to close out the regular season.

In the same vein, Tom O'Brien's Wolfpack also were somewhat of a wild card, beating the Cavaliers in Charlottesville and completely flummoxing Clemson at home, 37-13, when the Tigers were ranked #8 in the country. They also lost to Wake Forest, Boston College, and at Cincinnati, 44-14.

Comings and Goings 
I didn't do this for the first three previews, but I will from now on: all NFL draftees will henceforth appear in bold. Departures of note:

• FSU-Bert Reed-WR, Beau Reliford-TE, Ja'Baris Little-TE, Zebrie Sanders-OT, Nigel Bradham-WLB, Terrance Parks-SS, Mike Harris-CB, Andrew Datko-OT

• Clemson-OT Phillip Price, OT Landon Walker, TE Dwayne Allen, NG Brandon Thompson, DT Rennie Moore, DE Andre Branch, CB Coty Sensabaugh 

• Wake Forest-Tristan Dorty-DE, Kyle Wilber-OLB, Cyhl Quarles-SS, Josh Bush-FS, Chris Givens-WR, Joe Looney-OG, Cameron Ford-TE, Doug Weaver-OT 

• N.C. State-T.J. Graham-WR, Terrell Manning-OLB, Audie Cole-ILB, J.R. Sweezy-DT, Markus Kuhn-DT, Jay Smith-WR, George Bryan-TE

• Maryland-QB Danny O'Brien (transfer), Davin Meggett-RB, Cameron Chism-CB, Trenton Hughes-CB, Tony Logan-WR, Quintin McCree-WR

• Boston College-Luke Kuechly-ILB, Mark Spinney-C, Donnie Fletcher-CB, Montel Harris-RB* (dismissed from team), Ifeanyi Momah-TE

By numbers of returning starters (including special teams): 1) Florida State-18 2) Boston College-17 3) Maryland-17 4) N.C. State-16 5) Clemson-15 6) Wake Forest-12

Although I mentioned yesterday that the odds of a VT-Clemson conference title game are pretty good, FSU has to be the Atlantic favorite on paper. Eighteen returning starters, including starting quarterback EJ Manuel and a nasty defense that returns the starting front four completely intact and loses only two in the back seven. Starting tailback Devonta Freeman is also back after a decent 2011; back-up Jermaine Thomas is off to the NFL and I haven't really heard anything of late regarding James Wilder Jr.'s legal issues. If Freeman can carry the load and take some pressure off of Manuel, this could be a team in contention for a national title game appearance in November. I'm only committing to "could", however, after getting burned by the Noles last season. 

This Clemson team kind of reminds me of the 2008 iteration on offense: talented skill players, good bit of offensive linemen to replace. As we all know, a sub-par OL can make even the most talented skill players look like nobodies. Clemson has to replace three 2011 starters this year, just like they did in '08. Defensively, the Tigers need to replace 75% of the DL, but the back seven returns intact. As a whole, the defense should improve under new DC Brent Venables.  

Intra-Division Games To Watch 
Once again, here's the helmet schedule.


1) Clemson-Florida State, September 22nd. This is the obvious choice for #1 in the Atlantic division.  Both teams have high hopes, some built on reality and some built on vague notions of talent and, in FSU's case, the omnipresent shadow of history and past success. After rattling off 11 straight wins against Clemson between 1992 and 2002, the Noles have gone 3-6 against the Tigers since. On the bright side for FSU, the home team as won this game the last four times they've met.

2) Clemson-N.C. State, November 17th. There's a big drop-off after #1 on this list, but this is still an important game, especially for Clemson. Last year's loss in Raleigh was one of the more surprising losses of the season, which is sort of a testament to how much good faith Clemson had built up to that point (i.e. that such a loss was surprising at all). This is Clemson's last conference game before taking on the Gamecocks at home. Luckily, the Tigers also get the Wolfpack at home this time.

3) Florida State-Wake Forest, September 15th. Okay, don't laugh, but FSU has somehow gone 2-4 against WF in their last six meetings. The Demon Deacons are clearly the Seminoles' IT'S A TRAP game, although it shouldn't be so much of a trap anymore for FSU, you would think. Also, this game takes place a week before the FSU-Clemson showdown, so there is classic letdown potential yada yada yada.

4) Florida State-N.C. State, October 6th. Don't have much in the way of specifics to say about this one other than that this is the next permutation in the Clemson-FSU-N.C. State triumvirate. This is the Wolfpack's first divisional game of the season; if they want to be taken seriously in the division, taking out the Noles at home

5) Wake Forest-Clemson, October 25th. Looking at WF's schedule, if they split their trips to FSU and Virgina, they could very easily be 6-1 heading into this game, a Thursday night matchup at home. Needless to say, if all goes according to plan, an upset win here would improbably put the Demon Deacons at or near the top of the division. This is admittedly a best case scenario sort of thing for Wake, but the other conference games in the lead up to the Clemson game, other than the aforementioned FSU and UVA games, are: UNC, Duke, and Maryland. Even for WF, that is extremely manageable.

LAZY NARRATIVES GALORE 

• FSU and Clemson herpin' and derpin'. Is this the year that either Clemson or FSU finally run through the schedule without an unexpected derp or two? Both have programs with fan bases that expect much more (see "national championships"), which might not be so realistic in Clemson's case but hey, who am I to cut down someone's dreams? With that said, Clemson did a good job of avoiding its own brand of Sparty No! moments up until November last season. The next step is to avoid those losses and at least put yourself in the picture of a national title game berth. On the other hand, FSU needs to avoid the lethargic start that it experienced last season. 
• N.C. State: on the way up? After three sub-.500 seasons to start the O'Brien era, the Wolfpack have won 9 and 8 games in 2010 and 2011, respectively. They even picked off eventual conference champion Clemson. Sixteen returning starters is enough to allow for expectations to build a little bit. The Wolfpack start the season in Atlanta against Tennessee; that should be a solid initial indicator of whether or not this is the same old forgettable Wolfpack or if this is a team worth paying attention to. 
• Clemson déjà vu. Like I mentioned earlier, Clemson's 2012 team kind of reminds me of what it had in 2008: a lot of skill position talent with several holes on the offensive line. Everyody wants to talk about Sammy Watkins and Tajh Boyd, but the Tigers need to replace 3 starters on the OL or Boyd won't have time to find anybody, especially against a fast and talented defense like FSU's. 

Obligatory Heisman Candidate Section That Nobody Cares About But Here It is Anyway 
1) Tajh Boyd, QB, Clemson
2) EJ Manuel, QB, FSU
3) Sammy Watkins, WR, Clemson
4) Mike Glennon, QB, N.C. State


OFFICIAL MEANINGLESS PREDICTION
Whatever happens, with Clemson and FSU being the favorites, this division should, at the very least, be fairly exciting. Both teams have a penchant for losing to teams with way less talent, a trend that has developed over much of the last decade. Even last year, Clemson won the division and still had a few stinkers against N.C. State and Georgia Tech, and that's not even mentioning a loss against South Carolina that could have been considered hotly contested when juxtaposed with the Orange Bowl box score.

Regardless, this Clemson team should be more 2011 Clemson than the Clemson we've come to know in practically every other year this side of the new millennium. The Tigers have to replace a not insignificant amount of talent, particularly on the offensive and defensive lines. Like always, Clemson has the skill, with Tajh Boyd at QB, Sammy Watkins at wideout, and senior Andre Ellington at tailback. The question, as it has been before, is whether or not Clemson has the quality in the trenches. Swinney's recruiting has been strong, so we will see how well those losses are replaced; success would indicate that this program has matured greatly since Swinney took over back in 2008.

Much of the same could be said for Florida State. After going along with the people that had FSU as a darkhorse NC contender in 2011, I am understandably skeptical. After last year's 3-game losing streak early on (Oklahoma-Clemson-Wake Forest), it's hard not to look at the 4-week stretch of WF-Clemson-@USF-@N.C. State with a little bit of suspicion. Would a 1-3 record during that stretch really surprise you? No? That's exactly the problem. That said, E.J. Manuel will be a 5th-year senior and most of what was one of the most dominant defenses not based in Baton Rouge or Tuscaloosa last season returns this year.

Otherwise, you will find that N.C. State is the trendy darkhorse pick in the division. Mike Glennon is one of the more underrated QBs in the country, but I'm not sue that this team is strong enough from top to bottom to make a serious push for the divisional crown. Similarly, Wake Forest is a team with upset potential; however, I'm no sure that they have enough to make a serious push. On the positive side, as I mentioned earlier, their first seven games are navigable, with games against UNC, FSU, @UVA being the key tilts. If Wake can manage to go at least 1-2 in that trio of games and somehow upset Clemson at home, then as Cosmo Kramer would say: giddy up.

Like Duke, Maryland and Boston College are probably not worth discussing at length. If you are still interested in learning more about them, then: a) you must be really, really bored and b) here are the Pre-Snap Read preview posts for Maryland and BC.


As much as it pains me to do after last season, I'm writing FSU in for the Atlantic division title this season. This is one of those decisions that you make and constantly regret before anything even happens, but so it goes. I like FSU's defense, and although Clemson probably has better non-QB skill players, FSU's are more than capable. Throw in Clemson's OL/DL issues and I think that FSU is a cut above the Tigers this season.

Dangit, I knew this was going to happen and there was nothing I could do to stop it. Well FSU, don't make me look stupid again for trusting you, please.

ACC Atlantic Standings 
1) Florida State
2) Clemson
3) N.C. State
4) Wake Forest
5) Boston College
6) Maryland

Offseason Doldrums, 7/20

The off-season is moving as slow as molasses and there's not a whole lot to talk about. We are still a couple of weeks away from fall camp and I think I've just about had my fill of the situation in Columbus (not to mention other places, like LSU, whose transgressions and resulting punishment elicited nothing but an apathetic nod from me). Given the way the last few off-seasons have gone, I kind of like this. An off-season where the local media and various alumni aren't taking pot shots at the program and its leader? I can get used to this.

Speaking of LSU: When I heard of the aforementioned "punishment"--which consists of a one-year probationary period and a loss of two scholarships--I thought back to The Process and remembered that, even in light of Hoke's lackluster record, I would've taken Hoke over Les in a second. It was a gut feeling that I had a hard time reconciling with conventional ideas like win-loss splits, but I held onto it nonetheless, mostly because of a feeling originating somewhere in the gut vis a vis Les's code of ethics. While Dr. Saturday points out that LSU likely won't see the NCAA's erratic and desultory regulatory hammer come crashing down on LSU as a result of their involvement with Willie Lyles, there is already too much out there on Les not to, at the very least, hold some deep-seated suspicions of him. However, he will never be the head coach at Michigan, so this is just me retroactively patting myself circa January 2011.

Previewin' time is upon us: Hammer & Rails has an early preview of this year's contest in Ann Arbor. The prediction: 31-17, Michigan. Most of the preview is essentially stuff you've already read a million times, but it's always nice to get an outside perspective on things. H&R asks:

How much of last year's success was based on the weather vs. Kerrigan's disruptive presence? Bother were factors in us having a modicum of success against an excellent offense, but since we could do nothing when we had the ball it went for nothing. We'll need a similar defensive effort this season if we're to win our third game in four tries against Michigan.

It's hard to tell, but as someone who attended the game in West-Lafayette last season...the weather was awful. It was just an all-around unpleasant environment for a spread offense (or any offense, really), and the offense struggled after dropping 67 on the Illini. Having been to Ross-Ade several times throughout my childhood, I harbor no ill-will towards Purdue football, but Purdue should not be too good this year once again. Ryan Kerrigan's terrorizing influence having left the program, the defense figures to be a lot less threatening, and that's one less person for Denard to have to evade if things break down.

Pre-season watch lists: Denard, Mike Martin, et al made some pre-season watch lists, for what it's worth (which is not much, in case you were wondering). I don't see any of our candidates winning one of these awards, but Denard and Martin figure to be our best bets (with the former probably being unlikely given the unfortunately inevitable drop in his offensive output).

More previewin': Brian profiles 2011 jack-of-all-trades-master-of-none recruit Frank Clark. I knew he was a guy that didn't have a position but I'm not sure if I've ever heard of a guy with such a wide variance of potential positions on the field. As Brian notes, Clark won't sniff the field for quite a while unless absolute disaster strikes.

Resurrection in Tallahassee?: Dr. Saturday seems to think that it's in the cards for the 2011 season. This season will be much like last year: no clear, absolute favorites. I'm not sure if this is "the year" for FSU, especially given the loss of Christian Ponder (although E.J. Manuel figures to be a good one), but the general lack of any clearly extraordinary teams will make the road much easier for Jimbo Fisher in his second year as the head honcho. For what it's worth, The Wolverine Blog is also high on the Seminoles. I am firmly in the "I'll believe it when I see it" camp when it comes to contemporary FSU football. Their schedule does set them up nicely, though; the ACC slate won't offer any challenges unless they meet Virginia Tech in the ACC title game. The only other tests are a crucial early season showdown against the Sooners and a trip to Gainesville to meet the Muschamp-led Gators, who they absolutely crushed last season.

This year's national champion will likely come from this group of teams: Oklahoma, Alabama, Florida State, and LSU. It's tempting to put a Wilson-led Badgers squad in there, but I just don't think they have enough to compete with the aforementioned (particularly in light of their Rose Bowl performance). Oregon and Stanford are also in the conversation but each have their own issues that make a championship campaign by either somewhat unlikely. Odds are, nobody goes undefeated this year and chaos reigns, as usual. I will say this: as much play as the Davids of the college football world (e.g., Boise State), I think it's good for college football when teams like FSU, Miami (Fl), etc. are good. Of course, that certainly goes for Michigan as well.

Media Day(s) are nigh: SEC Media Day kicks off today in Hoover, AL (Big Ten Media Days kick off next Thursday...don't pretend like you won't painstakingly parse every throwaway comment. You will.). Orson compiles a list of hypothetical questions:

"Coach Petrino, is Ryan Mallett the dankest qb ever? Don't worry about what that means. Just say yes."

Media Day is usually a long boring affair that produces maybe one or two interesting comments at most, but, like the release of Phil Steele's magazine, it represents yet another step towards real live football. That is, unequivocally, a good thing.