Michigan-N.C. State Preview: Showcase

Time: 7:30 ET
Place: Crisler Arena Center--Ann Arbor, MI
Line:Michigan -7

Exposition

The Wolverines come back to Ann Arbor riding on kingly steeds as the champions of the illustrious and surely not mostly meaningless NIT Season Tip-Off tournament in New York. After a game with decidedly Big Ten undertones against Pitt, the Wolverines out-talented what should turn out to be at least an okay Kansas State team. 

On the other hand, N.C. State is coming off a wildly successful 2011-12 season, in which the Wolfpack, under new head coach Mark Gottfried (formerly at Alabama), reached the Sweet 16 as a mere 11-seed. As such, the hype train was off to the races; the Wolfpack were ranked #6 coming into the new season, higher than both Duke and North Carolina. 

Unfortunately for the people of Raleigh, the Wolfpack have gotten off to a less than ideal start, even though they are still in fact 4-1 (hardly a disastrous start on paper). They dispatched Miami (OH), Penn State and UMass with relative ease, but things got much dicier thereafter. 

Playing in San Juan, the 'Pack fell to Oklahoma State, losing each half by the same score (38-28), a 20-point defeat that knocked them from their lofty perch in the polls. Only one starter scored in the double digits (freshman G Rodney Purvis) and the 'Pack shot only 36%, managing only 7 assists as a team. 
 
In their next outing Friday, the 'Pack were given all they wanted by lowly UNC-Asheville, who came into the game at 1-4. They trailed by three at the half, and were down 7 as late as the 8:30 mark of the second half. Powered by C.J. Leslie, Richard Howell and Lorenzo Brown, the 'Pack were able to battle back and grab the ugly win, which is more than can be said for a lot of other big name teams around the country (namely UCLA re: Sunday's loss against Cal Poly). In the end, getting the win is all that matters come Selection Sunday. 

With the 'Pack reeling and the Wolverines flying high, a loss at home would be incredibly disappointing for Michigan. On the heels of a successful trip to New York, where the Wolverines flashed their newfound muscle, depth and overall talent, this is a game that Michigan should be able to bring home for the conference in the Big Ten-ACC Challenge. 

The Opponent 

Based on the season to date, the Wolfpack don't appear to be a particularly deep squad. Only 7 players are averaging significant minutes, 8 if you include Thomas de Thaey's 8.0 mpg (he has only played in 3 of State's 5 games). 

 As far as scoring distribution goes, the 'Pack have been getting some incredibly balanced scoring from their top 6, who all average north of 10 ppg. Freshman F T.J. Warren leads the way with 14.8 ppg, with senior F Richard Howell not far behind at 14.6 ppg. Both of them are 6'8'', FWIW. Howell is shooting an absurd 72% from the field, with Warren also not far behind at 68%. It's no surprise that Howell leads the team in offensive rebounds (13); Michigan will, as always, need to clean up on the glass. Unlike years past, this is not a pleading admonition, but a gentle reminder to do the thing that we are no actually capable of doing.

As far as guard play goes, the 'Pack rely on freshman Rodney Purvis and junior Lorenzo Brown for a back court 1-2 punch. They both average just around 11 ppg. As the point guard, Brown is naturally the bigger distributor, averaging 5.2 apg. At six feet five inches, Brown presents somewhat of a matchup problem for Michigan. Unless Beilein deploys the 1-3-1 again, I find it hard to believe that Trey Burke will be matched up on him for extended periods of time, if at all.

Rounding out the top 6 are Scott Wood, a senior forward shooting 45% from beyond the arc on the most attempts of any player on the team (29). C.J. Leslie, a six foot nine inches tall junior forward, registers at a shade under 11 ppg; he is also the team's second most effective rebounder behind Howell, grabbing 7 rpg thus far.

In short, the Wolfpack are a top 25 team if you look at their top 6 alone. However, this is a team that doesn't have many viable options past that; Gottfried went with a 7-man rotation against UNC-Asheville. Outside of the two guards, the other four options are forwards at 6'8'' or 6'9'', with Wood the lone outlier at 6'6'' (and the team's resident 3-point gunner).

Michigan should be able to match N.C. State's front court depth with relative ease by virtue of its own abundance of depth.

The Gameplan 

With only five games in the books, statistical sample size caveats obviously still apply. However, the 'Pack can definitely score, as they sit at 28th in the nation at 80.2 ppg, only three spots behind Michigan. Defensively, however, the 'Pack are an unimpressive 228th in the nation in points per game allowed (69.2).

They don't really block shots, either. Given their personnel, this isn't really a surprise, as they have multiple 6'8/9'' guys but not truly elite guys, height-wise, like Pitt's Steven Adams or KSU's Jordan Henriquez. The 'Pack's block percentage is a lowly 3.8%, just below Michigan's also pretty bad 4.0%. As such, Michigan should not be afraid to attack the basket whatsoever. 

Speaking of, Michigan can potentially win this game in the first half by doing so. Given State's lack of depth, getting guys in foul trouble early could basically mean doom for the Wolfpack, a la last year when Michigan got Meyers Leonard to pick up two quick fouls (I can't remember if this happened in both games against the Illini, but it definitely happened in at least one of them). 

With respect to pace, the 'Pack play a decidedly more up tempo game than the Wolverines, which I have to imagine is partly skewed by their high-scoring, desperate comeback against UNC-Asheville. They are averaging 7 more possessions per game than Michigan, clocking in at 72.2 possessions per. It's not like Michigan doesn't have the athletes to run, but with so much youth at various spots, you would rather have your upper classmen (i.e. Burke and THJ) slice and dice the opponent in the half court, seizing upon defensive opportunism for intermittent bursts of transition ball. 

I wouldn't feel uncomfortable with a faster game, but a faster game would certainly play to N.C. State's liking. So, let's not do that.  

Miscellaneous Stats 

• State is a mediocre 146th in assist to turnover ratio, clocking in at 0.97 to Michigan's sterling 17th best 1.46. Brown is the most and seemingly only capable distributor on the team, and whomever lands that matchup could very well determine whether this is a 10-point victory or a close one going in either direction.  
•  Rebounding. State has rebounded 37% of its misses to date, just a tad lower than Michigan's 38%. For the record, Michigan only rebounded 30% of its misses in 2011-12. 
•  eFG%. The Wolfpack have two players in the top 35 nationally in eFG%: Richard Howell (71.8%) and T.J. Warren (71.3%).
  

Ending Thoughts, Predictions, Etc.

After a run to the Sweet 16 and the departure of only one significant player from last year's roster, it appears that the college basketball world has jumped the gun a bit with respect to N.C. State's relative quality. Now, odds are they aren't as bad as they've shown the last two games, but it certainly doesn't look good. 

The 'Pack have a formidable top 6 that can all score in the double digits. As mentioned, as a 6'5'' point guard, Lorenzo Brown could prove problematic at times, so THJ (or whoever ends up on him) will need to be on their best game defensively. 

All in all, I think Michigan has too much depth, and Michigan's size should be able to match up just fine with State's forwards. Unless Michigan puts up a catastrophically awful performance, this is a game that should at worst be a close victory. I picture Michigan leading by about 10-13 for much of the second half before an N.C. State run late makes it somewhat of a game before the inevitable free throwpalooza to close it out. 

Score: Michigan 72, N.C. State 64. 

Michigan-Kansas State: Overnight Metamorphosis

Michigan 71 (5-0), Kansas State 57 (5-1)

With most people thinking about tomorrow's tilt in Columbus, the basketball team was busy flexing its newfound muscle and depth against a second straight opponent with a pulse. Michigan jumped out to a 6-0 lead in the first five minutes of play, a lead that it never relinquished. As I sat in Madison Square Garden, a palpable sense of evolution filled the arena, of challenger becoming the challenged. 

As expected, Kansas State just didn't have the same depth, athleticism and overall basketball ability as Michigan. There's not much use in going through the game itself; Michigan was better, and it was obvious from the very beginning.

What is worthy of discussion is how different of a team Michigan has looked thus far from past Beilein teams. Watching Michigan trudge through a relatively mediocre performance en route to a win on Wednesday and then watching them dismantle what is probably at least an okay team tonight makes it fairly obvious that this is just a different entity we're dealing with here. 

This isn't any of Beilein's previous Michigan tourney teams, for which Michigan's hopes on a given night were always tenuously balanced on the shooting strokes of Stu Douglass, Zack Novak, Tim Hardaway Jr. etc. Michigan would run out onto the floor and attempt to balance expensive china on top of a stick sitting on the tips of their noses, every night for 40 minutes. Not a one of them could slip, not one of them could drop a single plate, or Michigan was sunk. Sometimes they managed to succeed, like the game in East Lansing on Jan. 27, 2011.. The game ended and we all marveled at the fake that not a single shard was to be found anywhere on the ground. 

Even when they won, even when Michigan entered the rankings --like last year going into Fayetteville at #19-- it always seemed structurally flawed, which is fine as long as the structure doesn't collapse, termites and all. Results will always rule the day, after all. 

It might be a little early to start making grand, sweeping statements about the state of Michigan basketball, but watching Michigan against Pitt and Kansas State this week was a legitimately new and exciting experience for me as a U-M basketball fan. I saw things that I had never seen before in a Wolverine basketball team, fundamental things that are common components in championship teams and/or contenders.

I saw a Michigan team that was not only unquestionably talented, but unquestionably deep, athletic, well-coached, experienced in spots, and so on. Think about how many of those factors were missing within the program since the Fab Five. Odds are, Michigan was missing at least one or two of those things in a given year. 

Now, Michigan is the king of the hill. 

Bullets: 

• Tim Hardaway Jr.: An unbelievable performance for THJ, the Most Outstanding Player of the tournament. He went 10-15 from the field, expertly finding his way to good spots on the floor for him to pull the trigger when electing to take an outside shot. When he drove to the basket, he did so with a calculating and almost effortless precision. 23 points, 7 rebounds, 1 steal and 1 block. As far as his injury goes, I was at the game, and he walked off on his own power after a minute or so of lying on the floor. He went into the locker room thereafter, reappearing after a short while to sit on the bench. You never know how these supposed head injuries will go, but it goes without saying that caution bordering on paranoia should be the order of the day here regarding a return to the floor. 

• Trey Burke: As difficult as it is to find negatives after a start like this, Burke has started slow during these two games at MSG. Maybe it's the MSG rims or something, but I'm not really all that worried. You want to know something that's kind of hilarious? Trey Burke, Michigan's best player, didn't take a single shot in the first half, and Michigan was still up 5 going into the break. It wasn't even really a "close" five, Michigan was clearly better. Burke had a nice second half, going 5-10 for 10 points, 5 rebounds, 4 assists and a block. 

• Glenn Robinson III: Not a great day from the field (3-11, 9 points) but he was active elsewhere (12 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal and 1 block). Watching him out-athlete the Big Ten is going to be fun. 

• Nik Stauskas: Cold-blooded swag. Shot 3-6 from the field for 10 points (2-3 from beyond the arc). He is the kind of shooter for whom every 3-point shot looks good as soon as it leaves his hands. It appears that Beilein has finally found his huckleberry re: an elite shooter. 

• Jordan Morgan: Jordan "Bad Foul" Morgan reared his head. Morgan only had a chance to play six minutes, acquiring exactly 0.0 points and 2 boards. On the bright side, Michigan is no longer dead when Morgan decides to engage in some pointless tick-tackery 35 feet away from the basket. Depth is nice. 

• Matt Vogrich: Still a nominal starter because his defense is better than Stauskas'. Really wish he'd shoot like he did earlier in his career, although that's more of a general wish and not necessarily tied to his performance in this one. He went 1-3 from the field, with all three of his shots, oddly, being of the 2-point variety. 

• Spike Albrecht. Speaking of depth, it appears that Spike is a viable backup point guard. He even offered up a nifty trey on his singular attempt from the field. He played 12 solid minutes in which he didn't turn it over or do anything egregious. This is exactly what we needed last season, but alas, Michigan kind of needed Burke to pull a Martin/RVB circa 2012 Sugar Bowl, basically all season. Also, I hope I'm not the only one that thinks of Spike, the dog from Rugrats, whenever Spike's name is mentioned. No? Okay then. (This is what I get for growing up in the '90s.)

• Mitch "Crunk" McGary. Seriously, Mitch gets pretty jacked up. It's fun, but I kind of get the feeling that he's the type of guy that gets pumped up about literally anything. "Didn't nick myself shaving this morning? WOOOOOO YEAHHHHH." However, I am certainly not complaining, and I stick by my Jordan Morgan 2.0 comparison. He had six points on 2-4 shooting, 3 boards, 1 assist and 1 block. 

• Jon Horford: Can't remember where I saw this, but someone noted that Horford might have the best post move of any front courter...I have to agree. Horford was 3-5 from the field (6 points, 3 rebounds, 2 assists). Some shaky moments at times on the defensive end, but I'm sure he's still recovering to a certain extent, and maybe the fitness level is not quite there. He likely won't ever be like his brother Al on the offensive end, but he has the ability to be a much better defensive player with the ability to pitch in a post move or two a game, in addition to whatever garbage points he can vacuum up. 

• Max Biefeldt: Is kind of just a rotational body at this point, but he might be a useful player in Big Ten play. Somehow had the ball just ripped out of his hands on the perimeter, which isn't good. Otherwise, he didn't attempt a shot in seven minutes (but did tally one block). 

Michigan-Pittsburgh: We Kind Of On

Michigan 67 (4-0), Pittsburgh 62 (4-1)

Combine Michigan's first legitimate opponent of the season with the venue that is Madison Square Garden and you've got a game that produces a vicious cocktail of excitement and apprehension.

Pitt started the game with a long possession that resulted in a long 2 for Lamar Patterson reeling in an offensive board. Michigan's offense wasn't clicking early, with a missed three from THJ and a wild 2 from Burke. However, Burke converted on a nice pullup in transition after shaking James Robinson out of his shoes about halfway between the 3-point line and halfcourt.

 As Dakich's complaining demonstrated, the play earlier was a bit choppy due to some ticky tack foul calls. Through four minutes of play, Michigan was down 4-2, shooting 1-5 from the field; the rims, as always, are unforgiving at MSG.

After another offensive board, this time from Talib Zanna, Patterson knocked one in from 3-point land, putting the Panthers up 7-2. Needless to say, it wasn't an ideal start for Michigan, who looked fairly lifeless on the offensive end and less than tenacious on the defensive glass.

A corner trey from Stauskas gave Michigan some life. Glenn Robinson blocked a shot at the rim and Jordan Morgan took a charge on the following defensive possession. Pitt was able to get a couple easy buckets as the half went on, but things generally weren't easy when they were forced to execute their halfcourt offense.

After a Michigan steal, Mitch McGary took it about three quarters the length of the floor for a smooth finger roll, a brief flash of the potential we have with McGary as perhaps a Jordan Morgan 2.0 type player.

 It wasn't a smooth game on either end, as expected. Both teams started to heat up a bit from the outside as the half drew to a close. THJ pulled up for a nice jumper from just past the free throw line in the secondary break. After a rough start, Michigan was shooting 50% from the field with three minutes left in the half, although only 1-7 from 3.

Michigan went into the half down 29-33 after a mostly forgettable and extremely choppy 20 minutes of play. Most disconcerting was the fact that Trey Burke was 3-8 from the field and Michigan only had 3 total assists as a team.When Michigan scored, it wasn't via the natural flow of the offense; it either came off the bounce or in transition. Michigan has NBA talent to be sure, but this isn't the NBA we're playing in just yet. Going forward, Michigan will need to attempt to remain within the system more than it did in the first half of this game.

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Halftime Numbers
Michigan: 0.94 PPP
Pitt: 0.88 PPP

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Michigan went down 38-31 early in the half only to rally on the back of a pair of Stauskas jumpers and another from Burke. Michigan even switched things up a bit on defense, moving to the 1-3-1 for a brief stretch, which, if you'll read Michigan previews from national writers, is most definitely Michigan's base defensive set. Snark aside, the zone did seem to work (and Michigan actually went back to it at the 10 minute mark).

After shooting zero free throws in the first half, Pitt got the benefit of a couple block calls in quick succession on THJ. Speaking of Tim, his 3-point shooting came down in a big way. After coming into the game shooting an absurd 73% from 3, he shot 1-7 from downtown in this one. He did finish 6-13 from the field overall, however, good for 16 points, largely due to him attacking the basket. Like I said all of last season, SEARCH AND DESTROY, TIM.

All of Michigan's 38 second half points came from Burke, THJ, Robinson III and Stauskas. Just FYI, two of those guys are true freshmen, playing their fourth non-exhibition college game, in Madison Square Garden no less. I think we might have something there.

THJ hit a jumper to put Michigan up 55-50 with 3:30 to go. The Panthers didn't score again until there was only 1:15 left to go in the game.

There were a couple shaky moments at the end --including a Pitt foul on a steal attempt that didn't look like a foul at all, with Michigan only up 3-- but Michigan hit their free throws and came away with a solid, if somewhat ugly, win in MSG.

I'll have more comprehensive recaps than this one up in the future, with player bullets and whatnot (this one is admittedly rushed for various reasons). I will be at MSG for Friday's championship game against Kansas State, so it will be fun to watch a Bruce Weber team try to "run offense" in person.

On a serious note, Michigan pulled out a solid, grit-astic win against a very B1G-esque team, which bodes well for the conference schedule. Michigan's freshmen looked good and not at all overwhelmed (for the most part), and despite Trey Burke's struggles from the field, Michigan was able to gut it out to remain undefeated.

Also, like the Michigan fans at MSG, I would like to remind everybody that we are playing some team on Saturday, and hey let's beat them.

/#BEATOHIO chant at a basketball game against Pitt