Game No. 78 Preview, Bulls-Knicks: On Fire

Chicago Bulls (42-35) vs. New York Knicks (51-26)

The Bulls and Knicks meet tonight for their fourth and final meeting this season, a series which has somewhat surprisingly been dominated by the former this season. Chicago is 3-0 against the Knicks, who recently locked up the division title and have a magic number of three for the No. 2 spot in the East, with Indiana hot on their heels. The Knicks have been beset with all sorts of injuries all season, but they still have much to play for down the stretch before the playoffs begin. 

Thibodeau's squad notched a close victory at the UC back on Dec. 8, and you of course probably remember the two thumpings the Bulls delivered in the Garden (both which ended up looking vaguely close on the box score). 

Both teams are riddled with injuries at the moment, so this matchup will not exactly represent both teams at full strength, let alone even 75% of their full capacity. Regardless, it is an important game for both squads, as the Bulls are also looking to hold on to the 5-seed in order to face Brooklyn in the first round, a much better matchup in my mind than a date with the Pacers. 

At this point, there's no need to run through the roster for a fourth time this season: you know these Knicks. On Tuesday, the Knicks went with a starting five of Martin-Anthony-Prigioni-Shumpert-Felton; unfortunately for the Knicks, Kenyon Martin was the latest guy to go down in Tuesday's game against the Wizards. He, Tyson Chandler, Kurt Thomas, Marcus Camby and Rasheed Wallace will all likely be out for this one (although this is just me doing some early morning speculating as I write this). 

As such, the Knicks will be even more thin at the front court than they've been in past matchups. The Knicks are apparently close to signing James Singleton, who sounds like a Kenyon Martin approximate of some sort, but I'm not sure if that will be done in time for tonight's game. According to Frank Isola, the Knicks will likely have to cut someone (i.e. Kurt Thomas) to make this happen. 

In any case, the song remains the same. The Bulls will need to be physical with this Knicks team, which has struggled with that brand of play against the Bulls in their previous triumvirate of matchups. As you are likely aware, Carmelo Anthony has been channeling Spike Albrecht of late, averaging an insane 40.6 ppg in the month of April, including 50- and 36-point outputs at Miami and at Oklahoma City. Not only has Anthony's jersey sales topped LeBron's, his MVP star may be rising past the latter's after it dipped somewhat in the middle of the season. 

Unfortunately for the Bulls, with Joakim Noah out and Taj Gibson currently listed as day-to-day, there might not be much opportunity to take advantage of the boards as the Bulls have done against New York in the past. I don't think the Bulls can count on cracking the century mark in this one as they did in the two games in MSG. This will be one or lost by, you guessed it, defense and probably Jimmy Butler getting close to duplicating his career night on the offensive end against Toronto. 

The Bulls are on a two-game skid, ending a long winning streak against the Pistons and dropping the aforementioned game in Toronto on Tuesday. As we've seen all season, there is no reason to do much extrapolating from this sort of thing: the Bulls have been known to lose to poor teams only to turn around and beat one of the league's best shortly thereafter (and vice versa). There's no reason to expect the Bulls to not put up a fight, especially at home. 

However, if the Knicks somehow manage to go 20-for-36 (55.6%) from three again, as they did on Tuesday, this one will of course be pretty ugly. In their previous matchups, the Knicks have shot 35%, 31% and 50% from three against the Bulls. If Chicago's defense can allow something close to the first two matchups, they'll be in business. 

As always, forcing Anthony and J.R. Smith into high-usage, low-efficiency outputs will be the name of the game, as well as being mindful of the always dangerous Steve Novak corner three. 

The simple "100-point rule" applies tonight: the Bulls haven't cracked the century mark since their March 27 victory against the Heat. If the Knicks manage to score 100+, turn out the lights. I don't think they will, but I once again don't think the Bulls have enough juice to pull one out against a Knicks team playing its best ball since its early season run of dominance. But, I've been wrong many times before, and it's not like the Bulls didn't somewhat recently end the Heat's prolific streak. 

Bulls 87, Knicks 93. 

Game No. 28 Preview, Bulls-Pacers: Take Me There

Chicago Bulls (15-12) @ Indiana Pacers (16-12)

The Opponent 

I don't remember the reason, but I didn't actually get to watch the first Bulls-Pacers matchup back on Dec. 4. It's probably better that I didn't, because it was uglier than Ronnie Brewer's jumper.

The Pacers edged the Bulls 80-76 in a defensive struggle worthy of Big Ten basketball lore. Despite the solid defensive effort from the Bulls, Paul George dropped 34 points on 14-25 shooting. Meanwhile, Luol Deng scored 17 on 5-15 shooting and Boozer pitched in 14 on 7-13 from the field.

Needless to say, the Bulls cannot allow another similarly heroic effort from George if they hope to snag a win on the road (which would be nice, as the Pacers are a half game ahead of the Bulls in the Central division).

The same dramatis personae will take the floor for the Pacers. Roy Hibbert mans the middle, averaging 9.9 ppg, 8.2 rpg and 2.86 blocks per game. No, Hibbert is not the flashiest or most athletic big man, but he is a serious shot blocking force and can hit the glass with impunity (5th in the league in offensive rebounds).

David West leads the way for Indiana in points, averaging 17.4 per from the power forward spot, also pitching in 8.1 boards per game. The aforementioned Paul George pitches in 16.3 ppg and 7.1 rpg; Kirk Hinrich has gotten torn up by Jeff Teague and Jeremy Lin in back-to-back games, so he'll need to play a solid defensive game this time around if the Bulls are to have a chance.

Rounding out the rest of the rotation, the Pacers also feature such frontcourt pieces as SF Gerald Green, PF Tyler Hansbrough, SF Sam Young and C Ian Mahinmi. The Pacers are obviously a frontcourt-oriented team, with only George, 3-point shooter Lance Stephenson and backup PG D.J. Augustin the only Pacer guards getting meaningful minutes.

If you like low-scoring frontcourt battles, this is the game for you. Here's the player comparison for Noah and Hibbert based on the 2011-12 season numbers:

Again, these comparisons are far from perfect without the context of each individual game situation in mind, but it does provide a general sketch of what went on when both Noah and Hibbert were on the floor at the same time last season.

Points of Concern 

Simply put, fatigue is a concern. The Bulls are of course short-handed, what with the absences of Derrick Rose and Rip Hamilton, and when I watch the Bulls there is always a morbid, pervading sense that this is a team that is hanging by a thread at all times, an awkward Noah ankle twist or a hard knock to a Deng shoulder away from oblivion (i.e. major minutes for RADMAN).

Other points (isn't Bulls basketball one giant monolithic concern anyway?):

• Can the Bulls stop Paul George from experiencing an offensive supernova redux?
• Bulls guards (and bigs) finishing at the basket in the face of Hibbert's shot-blocking presence
• With the Pacers' rebounding prowess essentially neutralizing the Bulls' biggest asset, can Nate Robinson, Kirk Hinrich and Marco Belinelli give the Bulls a semblance of consistent scoring? Was the game in Madison Square Garden a mere outlier for Kirk Hinrich? 
• Can Nate Robinson score in parts of games that actually matter?

What Needs To Happen 

• Strong first. The Bulls can't afford to fall behind early like they did last night against Houston. If you're looking for a college football equivalent, the Bulls are a triple option team: good with the lead (if you ignore the Milwaukee game), not good at playing from behind. 
• Guard play. Just like the Memphis game, this is one that will probably be determined by guard play. Kirk Hinrich absolutely needs to bounce back and find some sort of confidence in his shot. 
• Turnovers. In a game like this, each possession is precious. On average, the Bulls and Pacers are just about equally careless, with the two teams averaging 15.5 and 15.4 turnovers per game, respectively. This won't be a speedy game with lots of transition opportunities, so the Bulls can't afford to pointlessly throw it into the stands too often.
  

Useless Prediction Time 

• Neither team hits 90. 
• Carlos Boozer gets at least three shots blocked and produces the audible sounds to prove it (i.e. AYYYYYY).
• Double-doubles for both Hibbert and Noah. 
• Bulls 82, Pacers 87.

Game No. 27 Preview, Bulls-Rockets: Been A Long Time Gone

Chicago Bulls (15-11) vs. Houston Rockets (14-12)

The Opponent 

The Bulls faced the Rockets once before this season, a 93-89 loss in Houston that continued what was already a rough mid-late November for Chicago. 

In the loss, their third in a row at the time, the Bulls shot a measly 40% from the field. Nonetheless, the Bulls took an 84-79 lead into the home stretch after Nate Robinson hit a three at the 4:41 mark in the fourth quarter. In what was many quintessential "this is what happens when Derrick Rose is absent" games, the Bulls did not score again until there were 7 seconds left in the game, just over four and a half minutes of being shut out on offense in the most important portion of the game. 

Since that defeat in Houston, the Rockets have rattled off a nice stretch of play, going 9-5 and picking up wins against the Knicks (twice), Memphis and the Lakers (if that means anything right now). In any case, the Rockets are definitely trending upward. 

PF Patrick Patterson, who really hurt the Bulls last time around (20 pts, 8 rebounds), continues to be out with a foot injury; Marcus Morris (8.9 ppg) takes his place in the starting lineup. As always, the brunt of the offensive burden will fall on James Harden (25.6 ppg, 22.9 PER) and Chandler Parsons (14.7 ppg). Parsons can get up and down the floor, so if Deng is still looking as banged up as he did Saturday night against Atlanta, he might be able to have a game against the Bulls tonight. 

Likewise, Belinelli on Harden is another frightening matchup, albeit for different reasons. On the bright side, these are the numbers from last year when Belinelli and Harden were on the floor at the same time (with Belinelli in New Orleans, obviously): 

(nba.com/stats)

Small sample size, so who knows. Like the Knicks game, I imagine we'll get liberal amounts of Jimmy Butler in this one. Carmelo Anthony and James Harden are different players, obviously, but Butler has proven himself equal to the challenge. 

Otherwise, our old friend Omer Asik is busy averaging 10.6 ppg, which is kind of irritating after everyone spent his stint in Chicago bemoaning his lack of any sort of offensive ability. Thanks, Omer! 

 "you're welcome"

Also, the Rockets have this guy named Jeremy Lin, who you may have heard of; it has been a somewhat up and down season offensively for the former Knick, but he has been playing very weel of late. The month of November has seen a pretty sizable uptick in all the relevant numbers: 13.5 ppg, up from 10.2 in October; 48% from the field, up from 35%; and 35% from 3, up from 26%.

Lin was 2-for-9 for 4 points the last time around, with five turnovers to just three assists; the Bulls' guards will need to duplicate this sort of defensive performance if the Bulls are going to keep pace.

Points of Concern 

As always, James Harden provides an offensive threat that is often impossible to defend. The odds of Belinelli being able to hang with Harden with any sort of consistency are not good, which means that the Bulls will have to go with Butler, who doesn't provide much offense himself. Managing this spot in the lineup is kind of like plugging a hole in a dam; another leak will always spring up. 

As a team, the Rockets lead the league in points per game (105.4 per).  Luckily, they're second to last in points allowed (103.4 per), making them pretty much the complete antithesis of the Bulls. Regardless, a potent offensive attack against this Bulls team, one that can go silent for stretches of four or five minutes at a time, is a little worrisome.

Asik, as we know, is a staunch presence in the middle, and even blocked Joakim Noah dunk attempts twice the last time around. Noah and the rest of the frontcourt will need to finish around the basket against the Turkish Tower.

What Needs To Happen 

The Bulls didn't really do anything egregious the last time around other than completely faltering offensively in the last five minutes of the first contest in Houston. Other than that, the Bulls had held Lin in check, took care of the ball relatively well and didn't let Houston shoot an exceptional percentage.

In short, shut down the Lin pick and roll game again with Morris/Asik. Don't let the Rockets get into transition; as always, this means good shots and fewer long rebounds on the offensive end. If this becomes the proverbial track meet, the Bulls will be like that one sad guy trailing in the back of an Olympic 100-meter run.

Useless Prediction Time 

• Jeremy Lin once again struggles from the field against the Bulls. 
• The Bulls rebounded 28% of their misses last time against Houston, with Patterson out this time around, I expect that number to go up to about 33-35%. 
• Jimmy Butler is averaging over 2 minutes per game more than his season average in his last ten games. He logged 30 minutes against Houston the first time around, and I'd imagine that he'll get close to or exceed that number tonight. 
• Playing at home, the Bulls do just enough to pick off a rising Houston team (I have nothing to based this feeling off of save holiday cheer). Bulls 96, Rockets 94.

Game #25 Preview, Bulls-Knicks: King of the Hill, Top of the Heap

Let's. Play. Ball.

Chicago Bulls (14-10) @ New York Knicks (19-6)

 (HT: not sure who created this thing, but I saw it via this

tweet...whoever you are, you are awesome)

The Opponent 

After a tumultuous offseason, the 2012-13 season began and Jeremy Lin was not a New York Knick. Instead, the Knicks plunged headlong into the season with 39-year-old Jason Kidd and Raymond Felton, fresh off a catastrophic season in Portland (where he couldn't seem to get back in shape post-lockout), as their top point guards. 

And, wouldn't you know it, things have worked out just fine for the Knicks, who are still wanting the services of Amar'e Stoudemire and Iman Shumpert. The Knicks appear to be a legitimate title contender for the first time since 1999, when they last appeared in the finals against San Antonio. It's been such a charmed season for the Knicks that they have even managed to unearth Rasheed Wallace and put him to good use. Unfortunately for Sheed, a left foot injury has sidelined him for the last three games, and I wouldn't bet on him playing tonight. Laugh if you must, but the Knicks' frontcourt is already sort of thin, so losing Sheed is not an insignificant blow. I guess you could say there's a...need for Sheed. I'll show myself out now.

Despite what at the time seemed like a potentially foolish decision to let Lin walk, the Knicks have soldiered on, playing an exciting and effective brand of ball. Carmelo Anthony has missed a little bit of time due to injury, but he has otherwise been having a MVP-worthy season thus far (28.0 ppg, 26.4 PER).

However, the Knicks haven't gotten to 19-6 by virtue of Anthony's play alone; the Knicks have been at or near the top of the league in 3-point shooting all season, which should provide a depressingly stark contrast with the Bulls' own horrific shooting from beyond the arc. The Knicks are currently third in the league, shooting 40.4% from downtown as a team. Anthony is shooting a sterling 46%, while Jason Kidd, who hasn't exactly been known for his outside shooting throughout his career, is hitting 45% on about 5 attempts per game. 

Of course, leading gunner Steve Novak is shooting 44% and is a classic FIND THE SHOOTER guy. The Bulls cannot afford to let him settle into that corner spot he likes so much, or he will kill the Bulls all night. Novak was out the other night against Brooklyn with flu-like symptoms, but I would imagine that he'll be ready to go tonight.

Raymond Felton, who I've always kind of liked for some reason, is having a very nice bounceback season (15.9 ppg, 6.6 apg). Unlike Rajon Rondo, Felton does have an outside shot to threaten his defender with, and so Kirk et al will have to respect that while also keeping the former Tar Heel in front of them.

The Knicks started out the season playing lights out defense, allowing less than 90 points in six of their first nine games. Since the, the Knicks D has loosened up a bit, giving up over 90 in 11 of its last 16 games (100+ in six of those games). New York is currently 10th in the league, giving up 96.2 points per game.

The Knicks were not able to handle Jeremy Lin on Monday and Deron Williams had a solid double-double on Wednesday in a Brooklyn loss (16 pts, 10 assists); unfortunately, the Bulls do not have a point guard of the caliber of either of those guys. Well, they do have a guy better than Lin, Felton and Kidd combined times infinity, but he is busy rehabbing his knee.

 

Points of Concern 

Defensively, it all starts up top for a number of reasons. Penetration by Knicks guards might as well be an actual bell, tolling for thee. With Novak chilling in the corners waiting to blow dart 3-pointers into your neck like a ninja and Tyson Chandler hanging around the basket for lobs, the Bulls cannot afford to let Felton --and, fergodsakes, Kidd-- get into the lane with regularity. Anybody that watched the New York-Brooklyn game the other night saw what a dunkfest it was for Chandler. It wasn't much different for the Bulls against the Clippers, when Lob City reigned supreme in the UC. 

Carmelo has been pretty much unstoppable all season, and the Bulls will need Deng/Butler to really bring it. Butler had some success against Carmelo that one time, when Butler basically shut Carmelo down in the fourth quarter in what became a 3-point win. This probably sounds like I'm entering Uncle Rico territory here, but unlike unlike Uncle Rico we have visual proof of Butler being good at something. Just stay with him, don't fly out of the picture when he jabs and challenge the shot as best you can and hope he misses. After going to the game at the Garden this past April, I still have nightmares of Carmelo nailing shots over the outstretched hands of Bulls defenders.

Last season, Carmelo shot 55% from the field and 63% from three with Luol Deng on the floor*. If that happens tonight, well, hamburgers. 

With Jimmy Butler on the floor at the same time** as Melo (i.e. ostensibly matched up on him), Melo only shot 29% from the field (sample size caveats, yada yada yada). Butler obviously doesn't give you even a sliver of the offensive capability that Deng does, but maybe Thibs ought to consider playing the youngster a little bit more in this one.

*22-for-41 from 2, 5-for-8 from 3.

**I'm not sure why Marquis Teague's picture is there instead of Butler's on that NBA.com player comparison generator, but whatever.

What Needs To Happen 

•  Kirk Hinrich needs to exist. Please. We need something, anything from our starting point guard. It's getting to the point where I'd suffer Nate Robinson's terrible defense and make him the starter if it were up to me. Of course, this will never happen. 

• Offensive glass. Simply put, the Bulls probably won't be able to keep up if the Knicks are even somewhat on from outside. The best shot they have is turning this into an ugly Big Ten-esque slugfest. Limiting possessions and more importantly winning battles on the offensive glass will give the Bulls the buckets they won't otherwise get in first chance half court sets. The Knicks are not a good offensive rebounding team but are one of the best in the league on the other end, only allowing 10 offensive rebounds per game and maintaining a defensive rebounding percentage of 74.5% (6th in the league). In short, Joakim Noah needs to win more battles than he loses against Chandler or the Bulls are toast. 

• FIND. THE. SHOOTER. As always, pace and perimeter defense go a long way toward preventing an opponent's top gunner from getting good lucks. If the Bulls take good shots and don't turn it over, the Knicks won't have many shots at finding Novak for open transition treys. Likewise, Bulls guards need to keep Felton out of the lane, as the lob to Chandler is always an option for them at that juncture of a play.

Useless Prediction Time 

• The Bulls are better off letting Nate Robinson do his thing; Hinrich simply does not possess the playmaking ability to be an asset, even against a relatively unathletic PG duo like Felton and Kidd. I guess this isn't so much a prediction as it is a hope, dream, aspiration, a raising withering in the sun-like glance of Tom Thibodeau. 
• Tyson Chandler doesn't quite get 16 boards like he did the last time the Bulls went to MSG, but he will do enough to keep Noah from truly killing the Knicks. 
• Tyson Chandler will eye laser at least two Bulls players, with Vladimir Radmanovic probably being one of those guys...poor RadMan :(. 

• It will be close entering the fourth, but if the game is close down the stretch, I don't see this Bulls team outdueling Carmelo in the Garden. Knicks 95, Bulls 86.

Game #24 Preview, Bulls-Celtics: Take Two

Chicago Bulls (13-10) vs. Boston Celtics (12-11)

The Opponent

After going to Memphis and apparently playing a basketball game while under the influence of Southern BBQ, the ever-prescient schedule makers allowed the Bulls a chance to avenge themselves tonight against Boston. 

The Bulls have faced Boston once before, a 101-95 loss on Nov. 12 at the UC. During that game, the Bulls took a 12-point deficit into the halftime break and heading into the fourth quarter. They cut the Boston lead to as low as two after a Luol Deng layup made it 95-93 with 49 seconds left in the game. Unfortunately, the Bulls could not get a stop thereafter, and the requisite free throw-fest went as it usually does. 

Even without Ray Allen, the Celtics are still a formidable team. However, they're only 12-11, and are coming off two straight defeats in the state of Texas (a 12-point loss at Houston on Friday and a 15-point loss at San Antonio on Saturday). The Celtics couldn't handle Houston's transition game on Friday (not unlike the Knicks last night), giving up 25 fast break points compared with only 11 of their own, which just about accounts for the difference in the final score. 

On Saturday in San Antonio, the Celtics only allowed four fast break points but couldn't defend the 3-point line, where the Spurs shot 48% (12-for-25), good for a team eFG% of 54%. This point does not benefit the Bulls, as they are: a) not the Spurs and b) still an atrocious 3-point shooting team, even with Belinelli sort of starting to pick it up a bit. 

The lineup is the same as it has been: Garnett-Rondo-Pierce-Lee-Bass. It's not as if the Bulls are playing the Bobcats or something; you know who all of these guys are. Rondo is averaging almost quite literally the same number of assists per game as he is points (12.9 ppg, 12.7 apg). 

The Celtics got their standard amount of scoring from their three big name players, but Brandon Bass, who is averaging a shade under 9 ppg, only scored two points in each of the aforementioned games in the Lone Star State. He had a key dunk late in the first matchup against the Bulls that helped to seal the win for Boston; if the Bulls limit Bass, they should be able to keep the Celtics within striking distance. Bass scored 16 points on 5-for-6 shooting the last time these two teams met.   

Points of Concern 
As always, Rondo doing Rondo things against the creaky, unathletic Bulls roster remains a concern. For all of his faults, Kirk Hinrich is supposedly a solid defensive player, but Mike Conley, typically offensive option No. 4 for Memphis, scored 17 points on 6-for-12 shooting last night, with 4 assists and 2 turnovers. Hinrich looked completely out of sorts, and who knows if he is even 100% from whatever the injury du jour happens to be.

Basically, the Bulls guards (Hinrich and Robinson) vs. Rondo translates to:

(HT: Parks and Meth)

Also, as already stated: don't let Brandon Bass scored almost double his season average on you. You will not win if you do that.

What Needs To Happen 

• SURVIVAL.  At this point, I'm not sure there are many point guard matchups in the league that I can look at on paper and say that the Bulls have any sort of advantage. Am I being hyperbolic? Maybe, but also maybe not. In any case, the Bulls guards can mitigate the Rondo Factor by, as always, getting the Bulls into solid halfcourt sets, avoiding long rebounds (which to Rondo is sort of like getting the golden mushroom item in Mario Kart) and pushing the ball only when it is completely obvious to do so. This might not sound like "fun" basketball to a lot of people, but you would be surprised how fun this thing called "winning" can be. 

• Something's gotta give. On the bright side, Boston is an absolutely atrocious offensive rebounding team. With an offensive rebounding percentage of 19.1%, the Celtics are literally the worst in the league. On the other hand, the Celtics clean up on the defensive boards better than the Bulls do, with a percentage of 74.5% to the Bulls' 72.7%. So, both teams clean up their own boards pretty well but only the Bulls excel on the offensive glass. The Bulls can mitigate the terrifying Rondo Factor by getting tons of second chance opportunities. By the same token, if the Bulls let a team like this offensive rebound on them, well, they're just not going to win this game.

• Teague? Many were calling for Teague last night, which is fine even though I doubt he would have been a net positive for the Bulls. However, he did play 18 minutes the last time the Bulls faced the Celtics (with Hinrich out with a right hip injury). He was 1-for-4 from the field, scoring 5 points and notching 2 assists in a +9 night for the rookie. Simply put, if Hinrich cannot get it done once again, Thibodeau needs to have a much shorter leash in going from him to Robinson and then to Teague. If Teague gets another DNP, I'd be a little disappointed. Teague showed some frustrating hesitancy with the ball in his hands late in the shot clock last time against Boston, but I think everyone will agree that he's grown a decent bit as a player since then. In the end, however, the sad thing is that this bullet speaks more to the state of the Bulls' point guard depth chart at the top than it does Teague.

Useless Prediction Time

• The Bulls gave up 58 first half points against the Celtics in the first meeting over a month ago, which I believe still stands as a season high for the Bulls. I envision a much grittier defensive effort from Chicago this time around. The Bulls will hold Boston under 100. 
• The Booze cruise sailed across choppy waters last time against Boston; he went 7-for-14 for 16 points, but was as mercurially inconsistent as he's ever been. Also of note, he was not on the floor when the Bulls made their fourth quarter push to make it a game. Actually, I think neither Evil Boozer nor Good Boozer shows it up in this one; the forgotten family member, Just Fine Boozer will take the stage tonight. It will be just fine. 
•  Kevin Garnett will glower at somebody at some point for no particular reason. 
• Bulls 90, Celtics 88. 

Game #23 Preview, Bulls-Grizzlies: Feel So Good

  
The Opponent 

Even the most cynical Bulls fan needs to take a second to give Thibodeau's Bulls some credit: since the epic collapse against Milwaukee on Nov. 26, the Bulls have gone 7-2, only suffering a Big Ten-esque loss against Indiana and putting up a solid fight against a Clippers team is the Bulls' athletic superior like Usain Bolt is athletically superior to a turtle.

Along the way, the Bulls have picked up nice wins against Philadelphia (x2), the Knicks (albeit 'Melo-less) and the Nets on Saturday night at the UC. The Bulls have not been an attractive team to watch, but even when Rose was around running the show, would you have put the Bulls alongside teams like the Thunder or even the title-winning Mavs vis-a-vis playing "attractive" basketball? I don't think so; it was always more of a singularly consistent ray of exceptionally exciting play than a team-wide characteristic.

The point is, who cares how they win. After the Bulls lost the aforementioned Bucks game --at that point, Chicago had lost four of their last five-- things were not nearly so cheery. The song remains the same with this team. On some nights, they'll manufacture wins against good teams like Brooklyn, and on other nights they'll get out-athleted (e.g. Clippers) or simply put up an aesthetically abominable by (by any standards) clunker like the Pacers B1G-fest.

Anyway, enough about the Bulls. The Memphis Grizzlies come into this contest at 15-6, which would tie them for second in the Eastern Conference with Miami but is good for only fourth place in the West.

Luckily for the Bulls, they appear to be catching the Hollingerized Grizz at the right time. Memphis lost three in a row to Atlanta, Phoenix and Denver before finally getting back on the winning track on Saturday with a 99-86 win at Utah.

Of course, the Grizz have most likely the best frontcourt in the entire NBA, paced by Marc Gasol, Zach Randolph and Rudy Gay. Gay leads the way with 19.0 ppg, while Gasol pitches in 15.4 and Randolph 17.6.

As far as eFG% goes, Gay is at 45%, Randolph at 51% and Gasol at 50% (and the latter two have managed this with zero treys made between them). The entire stat of eFG% has kind of been completely altered for me due to the existence of Nik Stauskas, but I'm pretty sure an eFG% in the neighborhood of those figures is still pretty good. 

Former Buckeye Mike Conley is no slouch as a fourth option; he's averaging 13.9 ppg and 6.3 assists per game thus far this season. The Grizz are in Chicago's neighborhood with respect to their assist-to-turnover ration; Memphis sits at 1.40 compared to the Bulls' 1.46. Conley has maintained a very nice eFG% of 52%, shooting a freakily similar percentage from in front of and behind the arc (44.4% from 2, 43.6% from 3).

The Grizz are averaging 97.1 ppg (Bulls--93.5) and are giving up the same average as the Bulls on the defensive end (90.0 ppg).

Otherwise, Tony Allen is around for his defense. Backup PG Jerryd Bayless, whom some asked to be signed by Chicago on the heels of the Great Bench Mob Jettisoning,

Points of Concern 
Although the Bulls' advantage in the frontcourt against most teams isn't as strong post-Asik, this Memphis team is definitely one of the teams that can beat the Bulls' frontcourt, straight up. The Grizzlies boast a better offensive rebounding percentage than the Bulls (31.9%) but aren't quite as good as Chicago on the defensive glass (71.9% to Chicago's 73.3%). Regardless, the Grizzlies will give the Bulls arguably their toughest challenge on the glass of any team in the league.

However, for all of the attention that will be given to the frontcourt trimvirate, Mike Conley is a pretty good player. During his one season at Ohio State, he shot just 30% from three; now, he's a pretty real threat from beyond the arc, complementing the rest of his game. He can also get into the lane and hit that little tear drop shot or distribute to one of several Memphis bigs.

Who knows what Kirk Hinrich's status is for tonight, but we all know how lackluster Nate Robinson's defense is. Rookie Marquis Teague came up big late when matched up on Deron Williams, but: a) sample size and b) expecting rookies to do anything consistently well is an exercise in futility. 

What Needs To Happen 

• Tell new Memphis VP of Basketball Operations John Hollinger that a lecture titled "Analytics in Sports: A Terrible Thing By My Calculations" is being held somewhere in Chicago that is not the United Center. Can't have him Inception-ing mind bullets of statistical genius into Lionel Hollins' head throughout the game. 

• Transition D. As always, the Bulls cannot afford to let teams get easy buckets in transition. Conley can hit the three, as mentioned, so Nate/Kirk/Marquis will need to keep up once the Grizzlies have secured a long rebound on the other end. Speaking of three-point, shooting, another statistic of note: the Grizzlies attempt the second fewest number of threes per game. They are second to only, of course, the Bulls. If the Bulls are going to get beat, let's not let it be because of open looks offered Conley and guys like Quincy Pondexter. 

• Salsa piccante, Marco (this has been Italian brought to you by Google). With Rip Hamilton out and Hinrich seemingly injuring a different part of his body every other day, the Bulls have relied on Marco Belinelli to provide some offensive pop. Belinelli is averaging just 22 minutes per game this season, but is averaging 39 per in his last six outings. In that span, he's shot a Korver-esque 43% from three and has averaged 19 ppg. No, he is not Kyle Korver, but his play of late has been pretty encouraging, especially after Thibs used him only sparingly earlier in the season. Belinelli will draw a tough matchup in Tony Allen; he'll need to put up at least 13 or 14 if the Bulls are going to have a shot.

Useless Prediction Time  

•  Evil Boozer shows up in this one. 
• After averaging just 13.4 mpg for a 4-game stretch, Taj Gibson got 25 against Philadelphia; however, he only got 15 against Brooklyn on Saturday. If Boozer's jumper is not falling early, I expect him to have a much shorter leash this game. Gibson should get 20+ minutes. 
• Despite Boozer, Gibson and Noah will do a decent job of neutralizing the Memphis frontcourt, and so I think this game will come down to guard play. Can Belinelli get away from the airtight D of Allen and can Nate Robinson stay in front of Conley? I'm leaning toward no on both accounts. 
• Bulls 81, Grizzlies 93.

Game #15 Preview, Bulls-Sixers: Grudge

Chicago Bulls (7-7) vs. Philadelphia 76ers (10-6)

The Opponent 

After an encouraging face-saving blowout victory against the Mavs on Wednesday, the Bulls look to manufacture a bit of momentum at home tonight against the 10-6 76ers.  

After somehow dropping one at Cleveland (still without Kyrie Irving) and then another one at home against OKC, the Sixers are riding high, with three straight wins against NBA stalwarts like Phoenix, Dallas and Charlotte. 

Philadelphia sits at 6th in the East right now, a couple of spots ahead of the Bulls; so, this would definitely qualify as a solid early season win. 

The 76ers are paced by a familiar cast of characters: PG Jrue Holiday (18.2 ppg, 9.4 apg), SF Evan Turner (14.3 ppg) and SF Thaddeus Young (14.1 ppg). As far as true big men go, the Bynum-less Sixers are getting a shade over 13 ppg combined from Spencer Hawes and Lavoy Allen. They go about eight deep, with backup PG Royal Ivey and the venerable Kwame Brown averaging 13 and 12 minutes per game respectively. 

After this past season's playoff defeat, this is a team with which the Bulls are fairly familiar. Especially after Evan Turner's BULLETIN BOARD comments back in April, the Bulls should be ready to go for what should be a hotly contested and physical game. 

Unlike Dallas, the 76ers are right in the Bull's neighborhood vis-a-vis team points per game, with them averaging just 93.4 ppg (26th in the league). Unfortunately for the Bulls, Philly does shoot the trey very well, currently sitting at 39% as a team (6th in the league). So, as with almost every other game, stopping the 76ers starts with good shots on the offensive end. Long rebounds for the Bulls could spell doom, as the Bulls' general lack of athleticism is not conducive to transition defense. 

If the Bulls can make this a half court game, this can very easily be the proverbial grind-it-out, Big Ten-esque win that the Bulls are built for.  

Points of Concern 

Jrue Holiday makes it all work for the 76ers, as their top scorer and by far their top distributor. Kirk Hinrich and Nate Robinson will need to orchestrate quality sets on the offensive end and keep Holiday in front on defense or things could get a bit dicey. 

Otherwise, without Bynum, this isn't necessarily a scary team on paper. They are an average rebounding team in almost every respect; while the Bulls are still a top 10 rebounding team themselves, they have shown lapses from time to time, and are definitely an order of magnitude or two inferior to their rebounding prowess of the past couple of years.

What Needs To Happen 

• Evil Boozer. CTL+V. Boozer shot just 42% against the 76ers in the 6-game Eastern Conference Quarterfinal, failing to reach double-digit points in three of those games. In the Bulls' Game 6 series-losing defeat, he went a horrific 1-11 from the field. You would think that Philly is a team that Boozer can comfortably get his shots off against, but attempting to decipher the logic behind his performances is like trying to find meaning in modern art.  With that said, Philly slots in at 10th in the league in blocks per game, which is always a concern for a player like Boozer. 
• Transition D. The 76ers have a hard time scoring in general, but they have scored 100+ in each of their last three victories. The Bulls are still fairly stingy in the half court game, but transition defense, especially on the heels of some aimless offensive sets (due to the real lack of break-you-down-ability), will continue to be of utmost importance. 
• FIND. THE. SHOOTER. Offseason addition Jason Richardson had a big game Friday to push Philly past Charlotte; with Holiday and Turner doing most of the ball-handling/playmaking, the Bulls need to be aware of Richardson, who will sneakily camp out in either corner for open looks when the Bulls' on the ball D fails.

Useless Prediction Time

• The Bulls' bench pitched in 50 of the Bulls' total 101 points on Wednesday. The bench won't be as prolific this time around, but I am looking for Thibs to continue giving the bench some more run. 

• Noah has another big game on the glass; he pitched in a double-double on Wednesday (13 pts, 10 boards). Against another not so great rebounding team, Noah should put up some big numbers once again. 

• The Bulls hold the 76ers to under 100 for the first time since the latter's aforementioned clunker in Cleveland. Pursuant to the 2012-13 Chicago Bulls 100-point Rule...
• Bulls 97, 76ers 94.

Game #14 Preview, Bulls-Mavericks: Still Looking For a Fiddle Player

Just cruisin' through the airspace of mediocrity 

Chicago Bulls (6-7) vs. Dallas Mavericks (7-8) 

The Opponent 

A season after winning an NBA title, the Dallas Mavericks went through the proverbial hangover, slogging through a 36-30 shortened season only to be mercilessly swept by the Oklahoma City Thunder in the first round of the playoffs. 

Once again, the Mavs are just sort of limping along, having accrued a mediocre 7-8 record after dropping one to the 76ers last night in Philly. As you already know, the Mavs experienced a bit of roster turnover this offseason, namely losing Jason Terry and Fountain-of-Youth-hogger Jason Kidd. 

Dirk Nowitzki's knee injury has kept him out of all of Dallas' 15 games thus far; even so, the Mavs can still score just as they have been able to do for years. They're averaging 100.9 ppg thus far, good for 6th in the league. On the other hand, the defense has been typically leaky; the Mavs have magnanimously elected to give up 101.6 ppg, good for third worst in the league. The song remains the same. 

In Dirk's absence, Dallas' trio of offseason acquisitions have led the way on the offensive end. O.J. Mayo is averaging 21.5 ppg with a fairly impressive --especially for Mayo-- eFG% of 59%. 

Elsewhere, PG and defensive stopper Darren Collison is 13 ppg and 6 apg. C Chris Kaman is also pitching in a respectable 13.7 ppg and 7.3 rpg, in addition to 1.17 blocks per game, second on the team only to Elton Brand's (?) 1.31 bpg. 

Elsehwhere, Vince Carter is Vince Cartering his way to 13.2 ppg, although he's only shooting 41% from the field, with an eFG% of 51%. 

Otherwise, Dallas features a generic medley of NBA players. Shawn Marion is around, averaging less than half of his career ppg average at 7.6 ppg. Brand, PF Jae Crowder and C Brandan Wright round out the rest of Dallas' meaningful contributors. Wright is averaging 8.5 ppg (2.5 ppg north of his career average), and is shooting a sterling 65% from the field.

Points of Concern 

This is the Bulls, so everything from "making a three every once in a blue moon" to "not giving up 27-point second half leads" is a concern. 

Basically, the only concern worth detailing is whether or not the Bulls can keep up with the Mavs offensively, even without Dirk's services. Without Rose, scoring will continue to be like squeezing blood from a stone for the Bulls, so my initial hunch is that they will have trouble keeping up. 

What Needs To Happen 

•  Evil Boozer. Dear Evil Boozer: please just don't show up. Please? I know you are a person that has emotional needs just like the rest of us, but you don't need to be such an attention hog all the time. Yes, we know you are so good at missing 17-foot jumpers and playing horrific defense, but can you just once let Good Boozer have a moment in the sun? You've done it a couple times before, and we'll need you to take one for the team against an opponent that can and will score many points.  
•  Don't fumble that football basketball, son. The Mavs will give you opportunities to get some easy transition buckets by virtue of the free-wheeling style they play. The Mavs are turning it over 15 times a game, good for a middling 15th in the league. Sadly, the Bulls are worse, sitting at 18th in the league with 15.5 per. The Mavs will look to run and and play defense-free basketball; although possessions will be plentiful, they will also be precious given the two teams' respective offensive prowess (or lack thereof, in Chicago's case). 
•  Rebounding. The Bulls' once indomitable front court has been giving up some rebounds on the defensive end of late, especially against Milwaukee (an average at best rebounding team). the Mavs are an extremely bad offensive rebounding team: they average 8.9 offensive boards per game, good for an ORB% of 21%. Simply put, if the Bulls don't clean up the glass against this team, the odds of coming away with a W are just about zero.
  

Useless Prediction Time

• O.J. Mayo out-athletes the Bulls in transition and off the dribble in the half court. He will hit his season average in points. 
• Boozer has another Jekyll and Hyde sort of game, where he goes cold then hot then cold from the field with a mercurial fervor. 
• The Mavs eclipse the 100-point mark. Pursuant to the 2012-13 Chicago Bulls 100-point Rule...
• Bulls 97, Mavericks 104.

Game #13 Preview, Bulls-Bucks: You Again

Chicago Bulls (6-6) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (6-5)

The Opponent 

After beating the Bucks Saturday in Milwaukee (a game I had to miss because I was at the Michigan-Cornell hockey game at MSG), breaking up a 3-game Bucks winning streak, the two teams face off again tonight at the United Center. The Bucks enter the game a half game better than the Bulls at 6-5. 

Despite averaging just under 100 points per game heading into tonight, the Bulls D appears to be stiffen up again, holding the Bucks to just 86 points at 17.6% from beyond the arc (3-17). 

The Bucks continue to rely on combo guard Brandon Jennings for a significant chunk of their scoring; he scored 23 on 10-20 shooting Saturday night (although he was only 1-5 from 3). Although I didn't get a chance to watch the game, Kirk Hinrich et al will need to do a better job on Jennings. The fourth-year guard also tallied 7 assists and 5 steals (!).

Of course, the Bucks jettisoned Andrew Bogut in an offseason trade that yielded them another combo guard scoring type in Monta Ellis. Ellis scored 17 on 7-17 shooting Saturday, with only a pair of assists to his name. 

Overall, the Bucks assisted 17 baskets and turned it over 16 times, compared with a Bulls assist:turnover ration of a little over 2:1 (20 assists, 9 turnovers). So, if the Bulls can stop Jennings and Ellis in isolation sets and in transition, holding the Bucks to a sub-90 output shouldn't be exceedingly difficult, especially at home. 

Otherwise, the Bucks have a fairly unimposing cast of characters filling out the rest of the lineup. Small forwards Tobias Harris and Ersan Ilyasova are averaging 8.4 and 6.4 ppg, respectively, with Ilyasova maintaining a horrible PER of 6.6. 

Veteran SF Mike Dunleavy will come off of the bench and chip in some scoring (12.3 ppg), especially from beyond the arc, where he is shooting a sterling 44%. C Samuel Dalembert will come off the bench to be large and whatnot, and rookie Tar Heel John Henson hasn't made a significant impact just yet; he played only 1 minute on Saturday. 

In short, this is a guard-heavy team dependent upon Ellis and Jennings to carry the day. The Bulls should, for the most part, dominate with its front court matchups.

Points of Concern 

Despite not having some big name front court guys, the Bucks are a respectable 11th in rebounding, but only 2oth in offensive rebounding percentage. With the athleticism of the Bucks' guard tandem, the Bulls cannot afford to let the Bucks out-athlete the Bulls on second chance opportunities when the play breaks down. 

Otherwise, it's all about containing Ellis and Jennings, whose athleticism should scare Bulls fan. It's painfully obvious that the Bulls have one of the least athletic starting fives in the league, and players like Ellis and Jennings can do some damage against them. However, they combined for 40 points and still lost on Saturday, so evidently the Bulls got it done elsewhere on the floor.

What Needs To Happen 

• FIND. THE. SHOOTER. In this case, it's Dunleavy. Fairly self-explanatory. He was only 1-4 on Saturday, and can hit if you leave him open, just like any other NBA shooter. There's no reason to let a guy like Dunleavy beat you, so it all starts with good offensive sets and shots on the other end and vigilant transition D when those long rebounds do set Ellis/Jennings off to the races.

• Force 'em to settle. Ellis and particularly Jennings are far less dangerous when they're launching shots from outside. Hinrich et al simply need to keep the tandem in front and perimeter help needs to be vigilant or the pair will score more than 40 combined this time around. The Bulls cannot afford to let the Bucks' average front court guys to get going with easy buckets off of penetration dishes from Ellis/Jennings. The Bucks are 13th in the league in 3-point attempts per game but are shooting only 30%, good for 26th in the league. Let them eat cake shoot threes! Well, they can have cake too if they want it but they'll need to wait 30 minutes until entering the game again. I'm looking at you, Milwaukee front court. Safety first.

• Hit the glass. The Bulls rebounded 40% of their 50 misses (20 ORB) on Saturday. Assuming that, say, Boozer doesn't go 10-15 again from the field --probably a safe assumption given his season thus far-- the Bulls might need that sort of tenacious effort on the glass one more time.

Useless Prediction Time 

• Boozer does not go 10-15 this time against Milwaukee; the 2012-13 adventure in Boozer shooting swings back to the Evil Boozer side of the pendulum. 
• The Bulls rebound at least 40% of their misses once again. 
• With Deng and Noah playings 42 minutes and Boozer playing 36 on Saturday, I'm looking for a relatively well-rested Taj Gibson to have one of the better games of his at times somewhat underwhelming 12-13 season.
• Bulls 96, Bucks 91.

Game #5 Preview, Bulls-Thunder: Block Party

File photo collection: still minimal, lame. 

Chicago Bulls (3-1) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (2-2)

The Opponent

The Bulls got back on the winning track Tuesday night, dispatching a surprisingly solid (so far) Magic team at home. The Bulls rode a second half 15-2 run to a victory, and the Bulls were able to keep the Magic off the offensive boards and J.J. Redick away from another lights out night from beyond the arc. 

On Thursday, the Bulls face a far different challenge in a reformulated Thunder team, of course featuring two of the league's most dynamic scores in Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. Even post-Harden, the Thunder still have two guys that can drop 30+ on you in the same game, and that is pretty much a formula for victory a significant percentage of the time. 

At least, one would think. I haven't had the chance to watch the Thunder yet this year, but Scott Brooks' revamped squad has gotten off to a somewhat shaky 2-2 start, going L-W-L-W in games against San Antonio, Portland, Atlanta and Toronto. Either Durant or Westbrook has led the team in scoring in three of those four contests, with new acquisition Kevin Martin's 28 points against Atlanta the lone outlier. 

Otherwise, the Thunder trot out a familiar group of faces. Secretary of Defense and Dismissive Glaring Kendrick Perkins mans the center spot, doing all of the things that Kendrick Perkins does. He's shot 50% from the field in 12 attempts and is pulling in about 6 boards a game. 

Serge Ibaka is another known entity; he exists to block shots and and slam it home on the glass. He's shot 53% from the field thus far and checks in at 2.3 blocks per game. With him, Noah and Gibson on the floor at various times, I guess you could go ahead and call this one a block party (I'll show myself out now). 

Former Bulls Thabo Sefolosha is an oversized two who also exists to play defense. He can score on occasion, however, but he's putting up 6.3 ppg thus far, just about a point higher than his career average. He's also shooting a ridiculous 63% from downtown, although that of course triggers the sample size alarm; he's only taken eight attempts. 

Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant are guys who I hear are pretty good...y/n? Anyway, that's what I heard, FWIW. Again, sample size, but Durant and Westbrook are 19th and 42nd in PER, respectively. Of note, neither has shot the ball particularly well this season. Durant is shooting 45% from the field and 31% from 3, whereas Westbrook is shooting 39% and 27%. I wouldn't necessarily count on this to continue, but perhaps the added burden of "not having James Harden" is requiring some acclimation. 

Otherwise, the Thunder don't boast much in the way of offensive threats. Nick Collison is another Gritasaurus rex, and Hasheem Thabeet, although he has seemingly upped his game a bit, is not much of a threat to do anything other than swat a shot or so a game. 

Kevin Martin is probably the non-Westbrook/Durant guy to watch. Lost in the ceaseless chaos that was the aftermath of the Harden trade is the fact that Martin can play a little ball. He's shot 51% from the field and 62% from 3 in 28 minutes per game. He isn't Harden, but he could become a very solid third option for the Thunder as the season progresses. In fact, he already has been just that. 

Points of Concern 

Obviously, playing the Thunder necessitates some sort of voodoo Bayou sorcery if you're going to get out alive. This means, in a few words, just sort of hoping that Durant and Westbrook settle for the outside shots and miss. Given their aforementioned shooting percentages, that night not be such a bad idea. 

The Bulls have had great success getting out and scoring in transition. Kirk Hinrich has been especially adept at leading the charge, and the Bulls will need to continue to do this if they're going to get into the range of just enough points to grit out a win. However, attempting to do this against a team like the Thunder, triggered by Russell Westbrook, is like literally playing with fire. Playing with fire is in no way a good idea. This was your pro bono life advice for the day. 

Again, whoever ends up matched up on Martin from the Bulls' revamped Not Bench Mob will have to be as vigilant as Batman after yet another Arkham prisoner outbreak. The guy can shoot and the Bulls have had a tendency to leave some shooters open once the game begins to open up. Of course, that is sort of the nature of up tempo basketball, but it is something the Bulls need to have in their minds. 

Unfortunately, attacking the paint from the perimeter is just not something the Bulls really do. Even if the Bulls can--and at this point I'm pretty much just referring to Luol Deng--they'll be met with several towers which also happen to be human beings that play basketball and block shots in exchange for significant amounts of money. 

So, it's a bit of a slippery slope. Telling a team to get out and run and yet, don't run that much, is a bit like telling George Carlin to hey, maybe cut down on the profanity a little bit. 

What Needs To Happen 

• Say it with one more time: FIND. THE. SHOOTER(S). Give up a few long rebounds in a row and the Thunder will be out and running...and that means shooters occupying nice open spots on the wings and in the corners as Westbrook Denards his way up the middle of the floor. 

• Offensive rebounding. Obviously, the Bulls have made hay on the offensive glass for some time now. However, they haven't exactly lit it up in that regard of late (although they didn't really need to on Tuesday, and it wasn't really the biggest reason for Saturday's defeat). Either way, the best way to slow down the Thunder attack is by forcing them to defend and reset their defense. 

• Carlos Boozer shooting tracker hopes for nice things. The Bulls fought their way through a second rough shooting night from Boozer on Tuesday, but the Bulls will need him in top form tonight. Unfortunately, getting off that ridiculous jumper might be a bit tough against a rangy guy like Ibaka (assuming that's who the Thunder put on him). Unlike Perkins, Ibaka can come out and defend a bit, so I'm not really sure what happens when the Bulls go to their version of the drive and kick, also known as "a guard drives and dishes to Boozer near the elbow" as opposed to what most teams do, that being driving and dishing to a so called "three-point shooter."

Useless Prediction Time 

• Westbrook goes off to the tune of 32 points. 
• Durant has a somewhat frigid night from the field. 
• Joakim Noah regularly wins the battle down low against Perkins et al. Not quite double-double worthy, but he'll get into the double digits in points. With Perkins (?) matched up on him, we'll see plenty of opportunities for the patented jumper to the finger gun holster maneuver. 
• That said, I'm not sure the Bulls have enough to keep up. Bulls 95, Thunder 102.