Game #25 Preview, Bulls-Knicks: King of the Hill, Top of the Heap

Let's. Play. Ball.

Chicago Bulls (14-10) @ New York Knicks (19-6)

 (HT: not sure who created this thing, but I saw it via this

tweet...whoever you are, you are awesome)

The Opponent 

After a tumultuous offseason, the 2012-13 season began and Jeremy Lin was not a New York Knick. Instead, the Knicks plunged headlong into the season with 39-year-old Jason Kidd and Raymond Felton, fresh off a catastrophic season in Portland (where he couldn't seem to get back in shape post-lockout), as their top point guards. 

And, wouldn't you know it, things have worked out just fine for the Knicks, who are still wanting the services of Amar'e Stoudemire and Iman Shumpert. The Knicks appear to be a legitimate title contender for the first time since 1999, when they last appeared in the finals against San Antonio. It's been such a charmed season for the Knicks that they have even managed to unearth Rasheed Wallace and put him to good use. Unfortunately for Sheed, a left foot injury has sidelined him for the last three games, and I wouldn't bet on him playing tonight. Laugh if you must, but the Knicks' frontcourt is already sort of thin, so losing Sheed is not an insignificant blow. I guess you could say there's a...need for Sheed. I'll show myself out now.

Despite what at the time seemed like a potentially foolish decision to let Lin walk, the Knicks have soldiered on, playing an exciting and effective brand of ball. Carmelo Anthony has missed a little bit of time due to injury, but he has otherwise been having a MVP-worthy season thus far (28.0 ppg, 26.4 PER).

However, the Knicks haven't gotten to 19-6 by virtue of Anthony's play alone; the Knicks have been at or near the top of the league in 3-point shooting all season, which should provide a depressingly stark contrast with the Bulls' own horrific shooting from beyond the arc. The Knicks are currently third in the league, shooting 40.4% from downtown as a team. Anthony is shooting a sterling 46%, while Jason Kidd, who hasn't exactly been known for his outside shooting throughout his career, is hitting 45% on about 5 attempts per game. 

Of course, leading gunner Steve Novak is shooting 44% and is a classic FIND THE SHOOTER guy. The Bulls cannot afford to let him settle into that corner spot he likes so much, or he will kill the Bulls all night. Novak was out the other night against Brooklyn with flu-like symptoms, but I would imagine that he'll be ready to go tonight.

Raymond Felton, who I've always kind of liked for some reason, is having a very nice bounceback season (15.9 ppg, 6.6 apg). Unlike Rajon Rondo, Felton does have an outside shot to threaten his defender with, and so Kirk et al will have to respect that while also keeping the former Tar Heel in front of them.

The Knicks started out the season playing lights out defense, allowing less than 90 points in six of their first nine games. Since the, the Knicks D has loosened up a bit, giving up over 90 in 11 of its last 16 games (100+ in six of those games). New York is currently 10th in the league, giving up 96.2 points per game.

The Knicks were not able to handle Jeremy Lin on Monday and Deron Williams had a solid double-double on Wednesday in a Brooklyn loss (16 pts, 10 assists); unfortunately, the Bulls do not have a point guard of the caliber of either of those guys. Well, they do have a guy better than Lin, Felton and Kidd combined times infinity, but he is busy rehabbing his knee.

 

Points of Concern 

Defensively, it all starts up top for a number of reasons. Penetration by Knicks guards might as well be an actual bell, tolling for thee. With Novak chilling in the corners waiting to blow dart 3-pointers into your neck like a ninja and Tyson Chandler hanging around the basket for lobs, the Bulls cannot afford to let Felton --and, fergodsakes, Kidd-- get into the lane with regularity. Anybody that watched the New York-Brooklyn game the other night saw what a dunkfest it was for Chandler. It wasn't much different for the Bulls against the Clippers, when Lob City reigned supreme in the UC. 

Carmelo has been pretty much unstoppable all season, and the Bulls will need Deng/Butler to really bring it. Butler had some success against Carmelo that one time, when Butler basically shut Carmelo down in the fourth quarter in what became a 3-point win. This probably sounds like I'm entering Uncle Rico territory here, but unlike unlike Uncle Rico we have visual proof of Butler being good at something. Just stay with him, don't fly out of the picture when he jabs and challenge the shot as best you can and hope he misses. After going to the game at the Garden this past April, I still have nightmares of Carmelo nailing shots over the outstretched hands of Bulls defenders.

Last season, Carmelo shot 55% from the field and 63% from three with Luol Deng on the floor*. If that happens tonight, well, hamburgers. 

With Jimmy Butler on the floor at the same time** as Melo (i.e. ostensibly matched up on him), Melo only shot 29% from the field (sample size caveats, yada yada yada). Butler obviously doesn't give you even a sliver of the offensive capability that Deng does, but maybe Thibs ought to consider playing the youngster a little bit more in this one.

*22-for-41 from 2, 5-for-8 from 3.

**I'm not sure why Marquis Teague's picture is there instead of Butler's on that NBA.com player comparison generator, but whatever.

What Needs To Happen 

•  Kirk Hinrich needs to exist. Please. We need something, anything from our starting point guard. It's getting to the point where I'd suffer Nate Robinson's terrible defense and make him the starter if it were up to me. Of course, this will never happen. 

• Offensive glass. Simply put, the Bulls probably won't be able to keep up if the Knicks are even somewhat on from outside. The best shot they have is turning this into an ugly Big Ten-esque slugfest. Limiting possessions and more importantly winning battles on the offensive glass will give the Bulls the buckets they won't otherwise get in first chance half court sets. The Knicks are not a good offensive rebounding team but are one of the best in the league on the other end, only allowing 10 offensive rebounds per game and maintaining a defensive rebounding percentage of 74.5% (6th in the league). In short, Joakim Noah needs to win more battles than he loses against Chandler or the Bulls are toast. 

• FIND. THE. SHOOTER. As always, pace and perimeter defense go a long way toward preventing an opponent's top gunner from getting good lucks. If the Bulls take good shots and don't turn it over, the Knicks won't have many shots at finding Novak for open transition treys. Likewise, Bulls guards need to keep Felton out of the lane, as the lob to Chandler is always an option for them at that juncture of a play.

Useless Prediction Time 

• The Bulls are better off letting Nate Robinson do his thing; Hinrich simply does not possess the playmaking ability to be an asset, even against a relatively unathletic PG duo like Felton and Kidd. I guess this isn't so much a prediction as it is a hope, dream, aspiration, a raising withering in the sun-like glance of Tom Thibodeau. 
• Tyson Chandler doesn't quite get 16 boards like he did the last time the Bulls went to MSG, but he will do enough to keep Noah from truly killing the Knicks. 
• Tyson Chandler will eye laser at least two Bulls players, with Vladimir Radmanovic probably being one of those guys...poor RadMan :(. 

• It will be close entering the fourth, but if the game is close down the stretch, I don't see this Bulls team outdueling Carmelo in the Garden. Knicks 95, Bulls 86.

Game #13 Preview, Bulls-Bucks: You Again

Chicago Bulls (6-6) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (6-5)

The Opponent 

After beating the Bucks Saturday in Milwaukee (a game I had to miss because I was at the Michigan-Cornell hockey game at MSG), breaking up a 3-game Bucks winning streak, the two teams face off again tonight at the United Center. The Bucks enter the game a half game better than the Bulls at 6-5. 

Despite averaging just under 100 points per game heading into tonight, the Bulls D appears to be stiffen up again, holding the Bucks to just 86 points at 17.6% from beyond the arc (3-17). 

The Bucks continue to rely on combo guard Brandon Jennings for a significant chunk of their scoring; he scored 23 on 10-20 shooting Saturday night (although he was only 1-5 from 3). Although I didn't get a chance to watch the game, Kirk Hinrich et al will need to do a better job on Jennings. The fourth-year guard also tallied 7 assists and 5 steals (!).

Of course, the Bucks jettisoned Andrew Bogut in an offseason trade that yielded them another combo guard scoring type in Monta Ellis. Ellis scored 17 on 7-17 shooting Saturday, with only a pair of assists to his name. 

Overall, the Bucks assisted 17 baskets and turned it over 16 times, compared with a Bulls assist:turnover ration of a little over 2:1 (20 assists, 9 turnovers). So, if the Bulls can stop Jennings and Ellis in isolation sets and in transition, holding the Bucks to a sub-90 output shouldn't be exceedingly difficult, especially at home. 

Otherwise, the Bucks have a fairly unimposing cast of characters filling out the rest of the lineup. Small forwards Tobias Harris and Ersan Ilyasova are averaging 8.4 and 6.4 ppg, respectively, with Ilyasova maintaining a horrible PER of 6.6. 

Veteran SF Mike Dunleavy will come off of the bench and chip in some scoring (12.3 ppg), especially from beyond the arc, where he is shooting a sterling 44%. C Samuel Dalembert will come off the bench to be large and whatnot, and rookie Tar Heel John Henson hasn't made a significant impact just yet; he played only 1 minute on Saturday. 

In short, this is a guard-heavy team dependent upon Ellis and Jennings to carry the day. The Bulls should, for the most part, dominate with its front court matchups.

Points of Concern 

Despite not having some big name front court guys, the Bucks are a respectable 11th in rebounding, but only 2oth in offensive rebounding percentage. With the athleticism of the Bucks' guard tandem, the Bulls cannot afford to let the Bucks out-athlete the Bulls on second chance opportunities when the play breaks down. 

Otherwise, it's all about containing Ellis and Jennings, whose athleticism should scare Bulls fan. It's painfully obvious that the Bulls have one of the least athletic starting fives in the league, and players like Ellis and Jennings can do some damage against them. However, they combined for 40 points and still lost on Saturday, so evidently the Bulls got it done elsewhere on the floor.

What Needs To Happen 

• FIND. THE. SHOOTER. In this case, it's Dunleavy. Fairly self-explanatory. He was only 1-4 on Saturday, and can hit if you leave him open, just like any other NBA shooter. There's no reason to let a guy like Dunleavy beat you, so it all starts with good offensive sets and shots on the other end and vigilant transition D when those long rebounds do set Ellis/Jennings off to the races.

• Force 'em to settle. Ellis and particularly Jennings are far less dangerous when they're launching shots from outside. Hinrich et al simply need to keep the tandem in front and perimeter help needs to be vigilant or the pair will score more than 40 combined this time around. The Bulls cannot afford to let the Bucks' average front court guys to get going with easy buckets off of penetration dishes from Ellis/Jennings. The Bucks are 13th in the league in 3-point attempts per game but are shooting only 30%, good for 26th in the league. Let them eat cake shoot threes! Well, they can have cake too if they want it but they'll need to wait 30 minutes until entering the game again. I'm looking at you, Milwaukee front court. Safety first.

• Hit the glass. The Bulls rebounded 40% of their 50 misses (20 ORB) on Saturday. Assuming that, say, Boozer doesn't go 10-15 again from the field --probably a safe assumption given his season thus far-- the Bulls might need that sort of tenacious effort on the glass one more time.

Useless Prediction Time 

• Boozer does not go 10-15 this time against Milwaukee; the 2012-13 adventure in Boozer shooting swings back to the Evil Boozer side of the pendulum. 
• The Bulls rebound at least 40% of their misses once again. 
• With Deng and Noah playings 42 minutes and Boozer playing 36 on Saturday, I'm looking for a relatively well-rested Taj Gibson to have one of the better games of his at times somewhat underwhelming 12-13 season.
• Bulls 96, Bucks 91.

Game #5 Preview, Bulls-Thunder: Block Party

File photo collection: still minimal, lame. 

Chicago Bulls (3-1) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (2-2)

The Opponent

The Bulls got back on the winning track Tuesday night, dispatching a surprisingly solid (so far) Magic team at home. The Bulls rode a second half 15-2 run to a victory, and the Bulls were able to keep the Magic off the offensive boards and J.J. Redick away from another lights out night from beyond the arc. 

On Thursday, the Bulls face a far different challenge in a reformulated Thunder team, of course featuring two of the league's most dynamic scores in Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. Even post-Harden, the Thunder still have two guys that can drop 30+ on you in the same game, and that is pretty much a formula for victory a significant percentage of the time. 

At least, one would think. I haven't had the chance to watch the Thunder yet this year, but Scott Brooks' revamped squad has gotten off to a somewhat shaky 2-2 start, going L-W-L-W in games against San Antonio, Portland, Atlanta and Toronto. Either Durant or Westbrook has led the team in scoring in three of those four contests, with new acquisition Kevin Martin's 28 points against Atlanta the lone outlier. 

Otherwise, the Thunder trot out a familiar group of faces. Secretary of Defense and Dismissive Glaring Kendrick Perkins mans the center spot, doing all of the things that Kendrick Perkins does. He's shot 50% from the field in 12 attempts and is pulling in about 6 boards a game. 

Serge Ibaka is another known entity; he exists to block shots and and slam it home on the glass. He's shot 53% from the field thus far and checks in at 2.3 blocks per game. With him, Noah and Gibson on the floor at various times, I guess you could go ahead and call this one a block party (I'll show myself out now). 

Former Bulls Thabo Sefolosha is an oversized two who also exists to play defense. He can score on occasion, however, but he's putting up 6.3 ppg thus far, just about a point higher than his career average. He's also shooting a ridiculous 63% from downtown, although that of course triggers the sample size alarm; he's only taken eight attempts. 

Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant are guys who I hear are pretty good...y/n? Anyway, that's what I heard, FWIW. Again, sample size, but Durant and Westbrook are 19th and 42nd in PER, respectively. Of note, neither has shot the ball particularly well this season. Durant is shooting 45% from the field and 31% from 3, whereas Westbrook is shooting 39% and 27%. I wouldn't necessarily count on this to continue, but perhaps the added burden of "not having James Harden" is requiring some acclimation. 

Otherwise, the Thunder don't boast much in the way of offensive threats. Nick Collison is another Gritasaurus rex, and Hasheem Thabeet, although he has seemingly upped his game a bit, is not much of a threat to do anything other than swat a shot or so a game. 

Kevin Martin is probably the non-Westbrook/Durant guy to watch. Lost in the ceaseless chaos that was the aftermath of the Harden trade is the fact that Martin can play a little ball. He's shot 51% from the field and 62% from 3 in 28 minutes per game. He isn't Harden, but he could become a very solid third option for the Thunder as the season progresses. In fact, he already has been just that. 

Points of Concern 

Obviously, playing the Thunder necessitates some sort of voodoo Bayou sorcery if you're going to get out alive. This means, in a few words, just sort of hoping that Durant and Westbrook settle for the outside shots and miss. Given their aforementioned shooting percentages, that night not be such a bad idea. 

The Bulls have had great success getting out and scoring in transition. Kirk Hinrich has been especially adept at leading the charge, and the Bulls will need to continue to do this if they're going to get into the range of just enough points to grit out a win. However, attempting to do this against a team like the Thunder, triggered by Russell Westbrook, is like literally playing with fire. Playing with fire is in no way a good idea. This was your pro bono life advice for the day. 

Again, whoever ends up matched up on Martin from the Bulls' revamped Not Bench Mob will have to be as vigilant as Batman after yet another Arkham prisoner outbreak. The guy can shoot and the Bulls have had a tendency to leave some shooters open once the game begins to open up. Of course, that is sort of the nature of up tempo basketball, but it is something the Bulls need to have in their minds. 

Unfortunately, attacking the paint from the perimeter is just not something the Bulls really do. Even if the Bulls can--and at this point I'm pretty much just referring to Luol Deng--they'll be met with several towers which also happen to be human beings that play basketball and block shots in exchange for significant amounts of money. 

So, it's a bit of a slippery slope. Telling a team to get out and run and yet, don't run that much, is a bit like telling George Carlin to hey, maybe cut down on the profanity a little bit. 

What Needs To Happen 

• Say it with one more time: FIND. THE. SHOOTER(S). Give up a few long rebounds in a row and the Thunder will be out and running...and that means shooters occupying nice open spots on the wings and in the corners as Westbrook Denards his way up the middle of the floor. 

• Offensive rebounding. Obviously, the Bulls have made hay on the offensive glass for some time now. However, they haven't exactly lit it up in that regard of late (although they didn't really need to on Tuesday, and it wasn't really the biggest reason for Saturday's defeat). Either way, the best way to slow down the Thunder attack is by forcing them to defend and reset their defense. 

• Carlos Boozer shooting tracker hopes for nice things. The Bulls fought their way through a second rough shooting night from Boozer on Tuesday, but the Bulls will need him in top form tonight. Unfortunately, getting off that ridiculous jumper might be a bit tough against a rangy guy like Ibaka (assuming that's who the Thunder put on him). Unlike Perkins, Ibaka can come out and defend a bit, so I'm not really sure what happens when the Bulls go to their version of the drive and kick, also known as "a guard drives and dishes to Boozer near the elbow" as opposed to what most teams do, that being driving and dishing to a so called "three-point shooter."

Useless Prediction Time 

• Westbrook goes off to the tune of 32 points. 
• Durant has a somewhat frigid night from the field. 
• Joakim Noah regularly wins the battle down low against Perkins et al. Not quite double-double worthy, but he'll get into the double digits in points. With Perkins (?) matched up on him, we'll see plenty of opportunities for the patented jumper to the finger gun holster maneuver. 
• That said, I'm not sure the Bulls have enough to keep up. Bulls 95, Thunder 102. 

Game 4 Recap: Back on Track

Bulls (3-1) 99, Magic (2-1) 93

Due to a prior engagement, I had to miss quarter 2-4 live yesterday, so today's recap will primarily be a lightning round/box score set of observations as I attempt to slog through the game on my DVR. The Magic took their first loss this season, but still continue to impress despite a young, injured, Dwight Howard-less roster and a new head coach. I'm not sure that we can count them as a "gimme" win going forward.

BULLets, Sponsored by "I See What You Did There, Inc.": 

• The century mark. Hey, look, the Bulls held a team under 100 and won. Let's just go ahead and discard the NOLA game and make this an ironclad Rule of Chicago Basketball in 2012-13. 

• I don't need no stinkin' surgery. Luol Deng pitched in 23 points on 9/16 shooting and was a crucial part in the Bulls' 15-2 second half run. 

• Other shocker: shooting well generally translates to a win. Once again, the Bulls didn't shoot too many threes (2/6 on the night, with Kirk finally hitting one...he actually even hit another, going 2/2 on the night) and they didn't even have an exceptional day on the offensive glass (the Bulls only rebound 20% of their misses). However, the Bulls did keep the Magic off the offensive boards, as Vaughn's young squad was only able to reel in 22% of its misses on the offensive end. 

• Minuses. FWIW, as I'm still making my way through the game, but Hinrich, Mohammed and Belinelli were a combined -18 in their combined total of 41 minutes of play (Hinrich accounts for 26 of those minutes). 

• Manufacturing. The Bulls managed a combined 56 points off of turnovers, fast breaks and points in the paint. As one would expect, the Bulls will need to continue to make hay here as long as Rose is out, because half court offense will continue to be a dicey proposition. 

• D up. Again, need to make my way through the tape but 28 points for Arron Afflalo means that something went terribly, terribly wrong. On the bright side, Afflalo was -4 on the night, somehow, so clearly he probably didn't have a great night on the defensive end, either (at least, that is one explanation one can infer from a box score alone). 

• Boozer shooting tracker. As I've said numerous times already in this short season, the Bulls' fate on a given night will often, sadly, rest on the shooting performance of one Carlos Boozer. Boozer went 6/18 on the night, taking his four-game shooting percentage to 44%. This would be pretty bad for a typical big man, but for a jump shooter like Boozer I suppose we can simply call this mediocre or below average. 

• SHOOTER: FOUND. The Bulls kept their opponent's primary 3-point gunner in check again (after holding Ryan Anderson to a horrid shooting night on Saturday). Redick went 2/6 from beyond the arc on Tuesday night. 

• Glen Davis. After tearing up the opposition to date, the Bulls held Davis to 16 points on 7/22 shooting, i.e. the most misses he's ever had in a single game in his career. Job: done.