Game No. 70 Preview, Bulls-Heat: Have You Heard

Chicago Bulls (38-31) vs. Miami Heat (56-14)

8:00 ET, ESPN

So, due to school, the Hawks and Big Ten basketball, the Bulls sort of fell off the radar here. Such is life. It's hard to believe that tonight's tilt is the 70th game of the season, but here we are.

The Bulls have been the basketball manifestation of Rasputin this season, suffering all manner of injuries and seemingly deadly blows only to continue to trudge along, seven games above .500 and fifth in the Eastern Conference, currently slated for a winnable first round series against Brooklyn. 

Derrick Rose is still gone, and it seems fairly obvious to everyone that he won't be suiting up this season. Richard Hamilton has done his best Martin Havlat impression, having not played since Feb. 26. Taj Gibson missed 10 games with a sprained MCL, but mercifully returned to the lineup last Thursday against Portland. Since his return, he's averaged 12.3 ppg in three games. Needless to say, he was missed. 

Kirk Hinrich did return against Portland on March 21 after having missed seven straight,  but he's shot a horrendous 5/24 from the field in his first three games back. He was a -10 in Sunday's win in Minneapolis, and Robinson rightfully got 10 more minutes despite Hinrich getting the starting nod.

The Bulls will still be without Rose and Hamilton, and Marco Belinelli will be a game-time decision after missing the Minnesota game on Sunday. Joakim Noah, who has missed the last two games with a case of a return of that pesky plantar fasciitis, will also be a game-time decision. 

If Belinelli and Noah can't go, the Bulls' chances of ending the 27-game Heat winning streak are slim. If they go, I'm saying there's a chance. The Bulls are 1-1 against Miami on the season, beating the Heat in Miami on Jan. 4 but getting thumped at the United Center on Feb. 21, 86-67.

In case you've been living under a rock, you've probably heard that the Heat are on a bit of a streak. Their last loss came on Feb. 1, which is fairly ridiculous. However, their upcoming stretch comes against some opponents with a pulse, so if they are going to lose it might as well be now; why not Chicago?

There's not much need to go through the standard personnel rundown. LeBron James is not from this planet, and is sure to be this season's MVP, an award he will probably win [*Sandlot voice*] for-ev-errrr. He's averaging 26.7 ppg, 8.2 rpg and 7.4 apg. LeBron is a basketball cyborg, sent to us from Cyberdyne to terrorize the National Basketball Association. Good luck, Luol and Jimmy. Hoping your team prevents LeBron from getting into the lane is like trying to stop a speeding locomotive. 

As always, here's the Deng-James player comparison (sample size caveats do apply, given these teams have met only twice): 

Elsewhere, Dwyane Wade has missed the last two games for the Heat and might be out for this one [update: he's playing]. Ray Allen continues to come off of the bench to drain threes in your eye (43% on the season); Mike Miller starts at the SG spot in Wade's stead.

The Heat have had a few close calls during this stretch, including a 98-95 victory at Cleveland (sans Kyrie Irving). I mean, they have to lose eventually...said every other team in the last six or seven weeks. 

If Noah can go, which I doubt will happen, the Bulls have a shot at doing some work on the offensive glass against a team with a defensive rebounding percentage of 72.8%, putting them in the bottom third of the league. Otherwise, it all depends on whether or not Boozer can nail some jumpers, Deng can pitch in something while having to check LeBron and Nate Robinson doing his best 2011-12 John Lucas III against Miami impression. 

On the bright side, the Bulls have showed some fight, winning their last two against division leader Indiana and at Minnesota after having previously lost six of their last eight. The Pacers game was yet another Big Ten-esque clash, with a combined 38 points from Noah and Boozer powering the Bulls to to a win on a night when Nazr Mohammed not only started but played 31 minutes. To his credit, he did score 11 points and grab seven boards, which I would be lying if I said that I didn't think he would reach those numbers in an entire season with the Bulls. 

But, as they say, next man up. Injuries or not, the Bulls have proven they can beat the Heat without Rose on the floor, but that doesn't mean it will actually happen.

At full strength, I'd actually feel pretty good about the Bull's chances, even if we're talking 2012-13 "full strength" (i.e. everybody but Rose). Even if Noah and Belinelli sit, I would still like Chicago's chances against a Wade-less squad. LeBron is great, but can he do it against Chicago by himself?

The answer to that question is, well, of course he can. There are a lot of injury-related hypotheticals tied to this one, but one team has LeBron and the other doesn't. Play this game ten times without Wade, Noah and Belinelli (and Hamilton and Rose) and the Heat probably win six of seven times out of ten.

Bulls 89, Heat 93.

Game No. 31 Preview, Bulls-Heat: Welcome to Miami

With Michigan's football season having recently ended, it's pretty much going to be all basketball around here (Michigan and Bulls) unless something important and football-related occurs. On that note, there will probably be some "final word" type pieces to officially close the voluminous and complicated legacies of Michigan's senior class...yes, Denard. Obviously.

Chicago Bulls (17-13) @ Miami Heat (22-8)

The Opponent 
Anywho, it's been a few games but here I am again. Since I last talked about the Bulls/wrote a preview piece for the Indiana game that was then cancelled, the Bulls picked up an ugly win against Washington, an ugly loss against Charlotte and what should've been a much more convincing looking win on the box score against Orlando.

The Bulls head to Miami tonight to take on the 22-8 Miami Heat, currently a game ahead of New York and first in the Eastern Conference. This is the first meeting between the two teams this season; during last year's shortened campaign, the Bulls went 2-2 against the Heat.

The Heat come in with a two game winning streak,both, strangely, overtime victories against Orlando and Dallas. So, maybe they'll be all tired out come tipoff tonight? Let's hope so.

In any case, despite the season that Carmelo Anthony is having and Kevin Durant being Kevin Durant, LeBron James still leads the league with a hilarious PER of 30.23. Speaking of LeBron, I read this post on The Basketball Jones and thought it to be mostly true:

It would appear that a little more than nine seasons into his microscopically analyzed professional career, LeBron James has reached a place few great professional athletes, especially in the NBA, ever dream of reaching: Being boring. Kobe Bryant has managed to play twice as long without EVER being boring for an entire month. Even in the few drama-free moments of his pro hoops tenure, the lack of news was newsworthy enough that people never went in ignorance of it. But without a title to chase, a troublesome teammate or coach to battle, or a facet of his game particularly thriving or lacking, there’s just no drama left in LeBron. He’s so boring now that he can’t stop listening to Wiz Khalifa.

 Pretty much. Perhaps I don't have my finger on the pulse of the NBA zeitgeist, but it would seem that, after winning that championship, the concept of LeBron James has been relieved of any sort of controversy. Now, he's just a guy averaging 26.5 ppg, 8.6 rpg and 7.1 apg. Indeed, LeBron is just quietly going about his business practically unnoticed, eviscerating defenses and probably dunking on your face.

Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh are doing their things as well, averaging 20.6 and 18.0 ppg, respectively. Offseason addition Ray Allen provides the Heat with a fourth double digit averaging scorer (11.6 ppg) while continuing his ways as a frustratingly automatic 3-point shooter (46%).

The rest of the team also reads as a list of "dudes you already know." Shane Battier is still around filling the Bruce Bowen role (i.e. defense and threes); Battier is shooting a nice 42% from three. Even Rashard Lewis, who was sort of just an overpaid albatross in Orlando in the two years after their run to the NBA Finals, is hitting 47% from three, albeit in fewer minutes than anything he's averaged since right around Y2K. Udonis Haslem is not a high usage guy at all but does what he needs to do for an undersized Miami frontcourt.

Point guards Norris Cole and Mario Chalmers are spark plug sorts that can do some damage on nights when Wade or Bosh aren't on. I should stop talking personnel...this is Miami. You know who they are.

Points of Concern 
Uh, need it be said? The Bulls had trouble with the Heat in the 2011 playoffs because they only had one star (Rose) to Miami's triumvirate. Well, Derrick Rose isn't walking through that door (but hey, Rip Hamilton is).

Playing on the road isn't so much a concern to me because of: a) Miami's moribund at best home crowd and b) the Bulls handled the Knicks at MSG not too long ago. What does worry me is the fact that the Heat can push the tempo with LeBron and Chalmers, and I don't think the Bulls have the athleticism to keep up. As the minutes continue to pile up for guys like Joakim Noah and Luol Deng, you can hear those hinges getting creakier and creakier.

Three-point D is also a worry, as LeBron, Battier, Lewis and Allen all shoot it very well. The Bulls are 6th in the league in 3-point percentage defense, if that is a statistic that means something to you.

Miscellaneous Stats 
This is replacing the "What Needs To Happen" heading because I found that it often just reiterated what was said in the previous section. Anyway:

• Points. The Heat are fourth in the league in points per game, averaging 103.6 per contest. 

• Rebounding. If the Bulls can close the massive talent gap somehow, it's by winning the battle on the board a la Game 1 of the 2011 Eastern Conference Finals against Miami. Given the Heat's lack of traditional frontcourt options, they're second to last in the league in rebounding. They're rebounding just 21.3% of their misses their season (to Chicago's 28.8%). The Bulls are no longer the truly elite rebounding lords that they once were, but they are still good enough to be a serious asset. 

• Deng v. James. Here's the NBA.com player comparison from the 2011-12 season for Luol and LeBron (click to enlarge): 

Useless Prediction Time 
Even in victory, the Bulls have looked a little shaky of late. Unfortunately, it seems that the win in New York didn't really give them that much momentum at all, but maybe I'm being a little too demanding.

This feels odd to even think about writing, but Carlos Boozer will need to bring a performance similar to the season-high 31-point game he had against Orlando on Wednesday if the Bulls have any hope of keeping up. Last year's numbers are naturally not encouraging, as the Heat blocked more shots (obviously) and were +13.3 per 48 minutes as opposed to just +5.9 in last year's four matchups.

I don't know that there's really a matchup on the floor that the Bulls win outright. I like Noah on Bosh, but it's sort of hard to compare the two because their games are so different. This is where the Bulls' bench would have made up the difference in the past, but, alas.

Anyway, LeBron is just too good and the Heat have too much firepower for a Bulls team that seems to be on the verge of being compressed into little disk-like things by the intense gravity of Thibodeau's minute meting SOP. 

Bulls 89, Heat 98.

Game #24 Preview, Bulls-Celtics: Take Two

Chicago Bulls (13-10) vs. Boston Celtics (12-11)

The Opponent

After going to Memphis and apparently playing a basketball game while under the influence of Southern BBQ, the ever-prescient schedule makers allowed the Bulls a chance to avenge themselves tonight against Boston. 

The Bulls have faced Boston once before, a 101-95 loss on Nov. 12 at the UC. During that game, the Bulls took a 12-point deficit into the halftime break and heading into the fourth quarter. They cut the Boston lead to as low as two after a Luol Deng layup made it 95-93 with 49 seconds left in the game. Unfortunately, the Bulls could not get a stop thereafter, and the requisite free throw-fest went as it usually does. 

Even without Ray Allen, the Celtics are still a formidable team. However, they're only 12-11, and are coming off two straight defeats in the state of Texas (a 12-point loss at Houston on Friday and a 15-point loss at San Antonio on Saturday). The Celtics couldn't handle Houston's transition game on Friday (not unlike the Knicks last night), giving up 25 fast break points compared with only 11 of their own, which just about accounts for the difference in the final score. 

On Saturday in San Antonio, the Celtics only allowed four fast break points but couldn't defend the 3-point line, where the Spurs shot 48% (12-for-25), good for a team eFG% of 54%. This point does not benefit the Bulls, as they are: a) not the Spurs and b) still an atrocious 3-point shooting team, even with Belinelli sort of starting to pick it up a bit. 

The lineup is the same as it has been: Garnett-Rondo-Pierce-Lee-Bass. It's not as if the Bulls are playing the Bobcats or something; you know who all of these guys are. Rondo is averaging almost quite literally the same number of assists per game as he is points (12.9 ppg, 12.7 apg). 

The Celtics got their standard amount of scoring from their three big name players, but Brandon Bass, who is averaging a shade under 9 ppg, only scored two points in each of the aforementioned games in the Lone Star State. He had a key dunk late in the first matchup against the Bulls that helped to seal the win for Boston; if the Bulls limit Bass, they should be able to keep the Celtics within striking distance. Bass scored 16 points on 5-for-6 shooting the last time these two teams met.   

Points of Concern 
As always, Rondo doing Rondo things against the creaky, unathletic Bulls roster remains a concern. For all of his faults, Kirk Hinrich is supposedly a solid defensive player, but Mike Conley, typically offensive option No. 4 for Memphis, scored 17 points on 6-for-12 shooting last night, with 4 assists and 2 turnovers. Hinrich looked completely out of sorts, and who knows if he is even 100% from whatever the injury du jour happens to be.

Basically, the Bulls guards (Hinrich and Robinson) vs. Rondo translates to:

(HT: Parks and Meth)

Also, as already stated: don't let Brandon Bass scored almost double his season average on you. You will not win if you do that.

What Needs To Happen 

• SURVIVAL.  At this point, I'm not sure there are many point guard matchups in the league that I can look at on paper and say that the Bulls have any sort of advantage. Am I being hyperbolic? Maybe, but also maybe not. In any case, the Bulls guards can mitigate the Rondo Factor by, as always, getting the Bulls into solid halfcourt sets, avoiding long rebounds (which to Rondo is sort of like getting the golden mushroom item in Mario Kart) and pushing the ball only when it is completely obvious to do so. This might not sound like "fun" basketball to a lot of people, but you would be surprised how fun this thing called "winning" can be. 

• Something's gotta give. On the bright side, Boston is an absolutely atrocious offensive rebounding team. With an offensive rebounding percentage of 19.1%, the Celtics are literally the worst in the league. On the other hand, the Celtics clean up on the defensive boards better than the Bulls do, with a percentage of 74.5% to the Bulls' 72.7%. So, both teams clean up their own boards pretty well but only the Bulls excel on the offensive glass. The Bulls can mitigate the terrifying Rondo Factor by getting tons of second chance opportunities. By the same token, if the Bulls let a team like this offensive rebound on them, well, they're just not going to win this game.

• Teague? Many were calling for Teague last night, which is fine even though I doubt he would have been a net positive for the Bulls. However, he did play 18 minutes the last time the Bulls faced the Celtics (with Hinrich out with a right hip injury). He was 1-for-4 from the field, scoring 5 points and notching 2 assists in a +9 night for the rookie. Simply put, if Hinrich cannot get it done once again, Thibodeau needs to have a much shorter leash in going from him to Robinson and then to Teague. If Teague gets another DNP, I'd be a little disappointed. Teague showed some frustrating hesitancy with the ball in his hands late in the shot clock last time against Boston, but I think everyone will agree that he's grown a decent bit as a player since then. In the end, however, the sad thing is that this bullet speaks more to the state of the Bulls' point guard depth chart at the top than it does Teague.

Useless Prediction Time

• The Bulls gave up 58 first half points against the Celtics in the first meeting over a month ago, which I believe still stands as a season high for the Bulls. I envision a much grittier defensive effort from Chicago this time around. The Bulls will hold Boston under 100. 
• The Booze cruise sailed across choppy waters last time against Boston; he went 7-for-14 for 16 points, but was as mercurially inconsistent as he's ever been. Also of note, he was not on the floor when the Bulls made their fourth quarter push to make it a game. Actually, I think neither Evil Boozer nor Good Boozer shows it up in this one; the forgotten family member, Just Fine Boozer will take the stage tonight. It will be just fine. 
•  Kevin Garnett will glower at somebody at some point for no particular reason. 
• Bulls 90, Celtics 88. 

Game 23 Recap, Bulls-Grizzlies: Sound and Fury

(HT: @CowhideGlobe)

Bulls 71 (13-10), Grizzlies 80 (16-6)

The Bulls took a trip down south for the front end of a back-to-back (they play Boston tomorrow night at the UC) against one of the league's best teams. I'm not much for moral victories, but a close result, even in a losing effort, would have constituted a decent performance given the Bulls ongoing Rose-less-ness and the fact that the Grizzlies are pretty good. 

I remember watching the Jordan Bulls dominate the then Vancouver Grizzlies as a good, who then had the 7 foot tall Bryant "Big Country" Reeves. Now, the Grizzlies traded British Columbia for West Tennessee but now boast two very good frontcourt threats in Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol (three if you include SF Rudy Gay). 

However, the Grizz looked nothing like the top four team in the Western Conference that they are in the first quarter. It was a disjointed, strange period of 12 minutes, in which Grizzlies players jacked up horrible shots and threw the ball out of bounds to no one in particular. Gasol and Randolph started the game 0/9 from the field, and the Grizz were 3-for-16 as a team through about 10 minutes of play. 

It was a lively first quarter for the Bulls, who appeared to be riding high after a big win Saturday night. Most importantly, despite cynically expecting an appearance from Evil Boozer in the preview, Good Boozer showed up in the first. Boozer dropped 8 points on 4-for-5 shooting, beating Gasol in the process. Meanwhile, Randolph was a complete non-factor early, with zero points in the opening period. 

The Bulls went into the second up 20-11 seemingly in spite of Kirk Hinrich, who return from injury seemed to produce no immediately perceptible positive effect. He was 0-for-2 in only six first quarter minutes. 

Unfortunately, the Bulls' lead was perhaps not as sizable as it could have been. The Bulls were up just 22-19 despite Memphis shooting just 28% from the field and having racked up 8 turnovers as of the 8:45 mark in the second. How did the Grizz do this? Of course, by the great equalizer that is the three, in addition to some less than solid defense from Belinelli. Memphis started the game 5-for-7 from three, and former Tar Heel Wayne Ellington was particularly bothersome to the Bulls (3-for-3 from three, on three straight possessions...ALL THE THREES). 

The first half of the second quarter was all Memphis, with the Grizz outscoring the Bulls 20-8 through 6:25 of play. The Bulls offense lost the swaggering verve it seemed to have earlier (if an offense can lay claim to such a thing in lieu of a 20-point quarter) as jumpers from Boozer, Noah and others started not to fall. 

The Bulls went into the half down five despite the Grizzlies' frontcourt trio of Gay-Gasol-Randolph contributing just a combined six points. As has been the case many times before, the Bulls got a bit of their own medicine thrown back their away; after spending the last couple of seasons winning games with its bench, the Bulls are the ones coming out on the negative side of the proceedings once the reserves come in. 

Halftime Stats (Bulls 34, Grizzlies 39)

-Bulls: 0.76 PPP

• Boozer: 5-9, 12 pts, 8 rebounds
• Noah: 2-5, 4 pts, 5 rebounds
• Belinelli: 2-6, 6 pts, 3 turnovers

-Grizzlies: 0.88 PPP

• Randolph: 1-5, 2 pts, 6 rebounds
• Gay: 0-6, 0 pts, 1 rebound
• Ellington: 4-5 (3-3 from 3), 11 pts

Game #15 Preview, Bulls-Sixers: Grudge

Chicago Bulls (7-7) vs. Philadelphia 76ers (10-6)

The Opponent 

After an encouraging face-saving blowout victory against the Mavs on Wednesday, the Bulls look to manufacture a bit of momentum at home tonight against the 10-6 76ers.  

After somehow dropping one at Cleveland (still without Kyrie Irving) and then another one at home against OKC, the Sixers are riding high, with three straight wins against NBA stalwarts like Phoenix, Dallas and Charlotte. 

Philadelphia sits at 6th in the East right now, a couple of spots ahead of the Bulls; so, this would definitely qualify as a solid early season win. 

The 76ers are paced by a familiar cast of characters: PG Jrue Holiday (18.2 ppg, 9.4 apg), SF Evan Turner (14.3 ppg) and SF Thaddeus Young (14.1 ppg). As far as true big men go, the Bynum-less Sixers are getting a shade over 13 ppg combined from Spencer Hawes and Lavoy Allen. They go about eight deep, with backup PG Royal Ivey and the venerable Kwame Brown averaging 13 and 12 minutes per game respectively. 

After this past season's playoff defeat, this is a team with which the Bulls are fairly familiar. Especially after Evan Turner's BULLETIN BOARD comments back in April, the Bulls should be ready to go for what should be a hotly contested and physical game. 

Unlike Dallas, the 76ers are right in the Bull's neighborhood vis-a-vis team points per game, with them averaging just 93.4 ppg (26th in the league). Unfortunately for the Bulls, Philly does shoot the trey very well, currently sitting at 39% as a team (6th in the league). So, as with almost every other game, stopping the 76ers starts with good shots on the offensive end. Long rebounds for the Bulls could spell doom, as the Bulls' general lack of athleticism is not conducive to transition defense. 

If the Bulls can make this a half court game, this can very easily be the proverbial grind-it-out, Big Ten-esque win that the Bulls are built for.  

Points of Concern 

Jrue Holiday makes it all work for the 76ers, as their top scorer and by far their top distributor. Kirk Hinrich and Nate Robinson will need to orchestrate quality sets on the offensive end and keep Holiday in front on defense or things could get a bit dicey. 

Otherwise, without Bynum, this isn't necessarily a scary team on paper. They are an average rebounding team in almost every respect; while the Bulls are still a top 10 rebounding team themselves, they have shown lapses from time to time, and are definitely an order of magnitude or two inferior to their rebounding prowess of the past couple of years.

What Needs To Happen 

• Evil Boozer. CTL+V. Boozer shot just 42% against the 76ers in the 6-game Eastern Conference Quarterfinal, failing to reach double-digit points in three of those games. In the Bulls' Game 6 series-losing defeat, he went a horrific 1-11 from the field. You would think that Philly is a team that Boozer can comfortably get his shots off against, but attempting to decipher the logic behind his performances is like trying to find meaning in modern art.  With that said, Philly slots in at 10th in the league in blocks per game, which is always a concern for a player like Boozer. 
• Transition D. The 76ers have a hard time scoring in general, but they have scored 100+ in each of their last three victories. The Bulls are still fairly stingy in the half court game, but transition defense, especially on the heels of some aimless offensive sets (due to the real lack of break-you-down-ability), will continue to be of utmost importance. 
• FIND. THE. SHOOTER. Offseason addition Jason Richardson had a big game Friday to push Philly past Charlotte; with Holiday and Turner doing most of the ball-handling/playmaking, the Bulls need to be aware of Richardson, who will sneakily camp out in either corner for open looks when the Bulls' on the ball D fails.

Useless Prediction Time

• The Bulls' bench pitched in 50 of the Bulls' total 101 points on Wednesday. The bench won't be as prolific this time around, but I am looking for Thibs to continue giving the bench some more run. 

• Noah has another big game on the glass; he pitched in a double-double on Wednesday (13 pts, 10 boards). Against another not so great rebounding team, Noah should put up some big numbers once again. 

• The Bulls hold the 76ers to under 100 for the first time since the latter's aforementioned clunker in Cleveland. Pursuant to the 2012-13 Chicago Bulls 100-point Rule...
• Bulls 97, 76ers 94.

Game #14 Preview, Bulls-Mavericks: Still Looking For a Fiddle Player

Just cruisin' through the airspace of mediocrity 

Chicago Bulls (6-7) vs. Dallas Mavericks (7-8) 

The Opponent 

A season after winning an NBA title, the Dallas Mavericks went through the proverbial hangover, slogging through a 36-30 shortened season only to be mercilessly swept by the Oklahoma City Thunder in the first round of the playoffs. 

Once again, the Mavs are just sort of limping along, having accrued a mediocre 7-8 record after dropping one to the 76ers last night in Philly. As you already know, the Mavs experienced a bit of roster turnover this offseason, namely losing Jason Terry and Fountain-of-Youth-hogger Jason Kidd. 

Dirk Nowitzki's knee injury has kept him out of all of Dallas' 15 games thus far; even so, the Mavs can still score just as they have been able to do for years. They're averaging 100.9 ppg thus far, good for 6th in the league. On the other hand, the defense has been typically leaky; the Mavs have magnanimously elected to give up 101.6 ppg, good for third worst in the league. The song remains the same. 

In Dirk's absence, Dallas' trio of offseason acquisitions have led the way on the offensive end. O.J. Mayo is averaging 21.5 ppg with a fairly impressive --especially for Mayo-- eFG% of 59%. 

Elsewhere, PG and defensive stopper Darren Collison is 13 ppg and 6 apg. C Chris Kaman is also pitching in a respectable 13.7 ppg and 7.3 rpg, in addition to 1.17 blocks per game, second on the team only to Elton Brand's (?) 1.31 bpg. 

Elsehwhere, Vince Carter is Vince Cartering his way to 13.2 ppg, although he's only shooting 41% from the field, with an eFG% of 51%. 

Otherwise, Dallas features a generic medley of NBA players. Shawn Marion is around, averaging less than half of his career ppg average at 7.6 ppg. Brand, PF Jae Crowder and C Brandan Wright round out the rest of Dallas' meaningful contributors. Wright is averaging 8.5 ppg (2.5 ppg north of his career average), and is shooting a sterling 65% from the field.

Points of Concern 

This is the Bulls, so everything from "making a three every once in a blue moon" to "not giving up 27-point second half leads" is a concern. 

Basically, the only concern worth detailing is whether or not the Bulls can keep up with the Mavs offensively, even without Dirk's services. Without Rose, scoring will continue to be like squeezing blood from a stone for the Bulls, so my initial hunch is that they will have trouble keeping up. 

What Needs To Happen 

•  Evil Boozer. Dear Evil Boozer: please just don't show up. Please? I know you are a person that has emotional needs just like the rest of us, but you don't need to be such an attention hog all the time. Yes, we know you are so good at missing 17-foot jumpers and playing horrific defense, but can you just once let Good Boozer have a moment in the sun? You've done it a couple times before, and we'll need you to take one for the team against an opponent that can and will score many points.  
•  Don't fumble that football basketball, son. The Mavs will give you opportunities to get some easy transition buckets by virtue of the free-wheeling style they play. The Mavs are turning it over 15 times a game, good for a middling 15th in the league. Sadly, the Bulls are worse, sitting at 18th in the league with 15.5 per. The Mavs will look to run and and play defense-free basketball; although possessions will be plentiful, they will also be precious given the two teams' respective offensive prowess (or lack thereof, in Chicago's case). 
•  Rebounding. The Bulls' once indomitable front court has been giving up some rebounds on the defensive end of late, especially against Milwaukee (an average at best rebounding team). the Mavs are an extremely bad offensive rebounding team: they average 8.9 offensive boards per game, good for an ORB% of 21%. Simply put, if the Bulls don't clean up the glass against this team, the odds of coming away with a W are just about zero.
  

Useless Prediction Time

• O.J. Mayo out-athletes the Bulls in transition and off the dribble in the half court. He will hit his season average in points. 
• Boozer has another Jekyll and Hyde sort of game, where he goes cold then hot then cold from the field with a mercurial fervor. 
• The Mavs eclipse the 100-point mark. Pursuant to the 2012-13 Chicago Bulls 100-point Rule...
• Bulls 97, Mavericks 104.

Game 13 Recap: Collapse

Bulls (6-7) 92, Bucks 93 (7-5)

The Bulls got off to a bit of a slow start tonight, allowing the Bucks to grab an early 9-4 lead. Insert "this is the NBA and leads don't matter" verbiage here, but when the first quarter ended the Bulls were up 26-19. Powered by 16 combined points from Hinrich and Hamilton, the Bulls were able to jump out to a lead despite shooting poorly. The Bulls grabbed 6 ORB in the first quarter and into the early stages of the second--one from each of the starters save Hinrich and a pair from Butler-- to mitigate the relatively cold start from the field. 

However, on the not so bright side the Bucks were doing work on the offensive glass themselves; 15 minutes into the game, they had 7 ORB.They came in averaging just over 11 offensive boards per game. 

 As the second quarter went along, the Bulls D began to tighten quite a bit. The Bucks had a hard time getting through on the dribble, resulting in some bad shots and turnovers that the Bulls converted into points (e.g. the kickout to Rip off the Milwaukee turnover for an easy breakaway layup).

As expected, Boozer didn't come out with the same shooting touch he had on Saturday, starting 3/9 from the field through almost two quarters of play. He was able to contribute in other ways, with 3 boards, an assist and a steal. 

Monta Ellis in particular was pressured and harried on the perimeter throughout the first half, and Brandon Jennings didn't fare much better. Combined, the tandem shot 5-13 in the first half, good for just 11 of Milwaukee's 40 first half points. 

Halftime Stats (Bulls 50, Bucks 40)

Bucks:
Team PPP (points per possession)--0.86

• Ellis: 3-7, 7 points, 2 assists
• Jennings: 2-6, 3 assists, 4 points
• Henson: 5-8, 11 points

Bulls:
Team PPP--0.94

• Hamilton: 7-10, 17 points
• Hinrich: 2-5 (6-7 FTM-A), 10 points, 3 assists
• Boozer: 3-9, 7 points, 5 rebounds

Game #13 Preview, Bulls-Bucks: You Again

Chicago Bulls (6-6) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (6-5)

The Opponent 

After beating the Bucks Saturday in Milwaukee (a game I had to miss because I was at the Michigan-Cornell hockey game at MSG), breaking up a 3-game Bucks winning streak, the two teams face off again tonight at the United Center. The Bucks enter the game a half game better than the Bulls at 6-5. 

Despite averaging just under 100 points per game heading into tonight, the Bulls D appears to be stiffen up again, holding the Bucks to just 86 points at 17.6% from beyond the arc (3-17). 

The Bucks continue to rely on combo guard Brandon Jennings for a significant chunk of their scoring; he scored 23 on 10-20 shooting Saturday night (although he was only 1-5 from 3). Although I didn't get a chance to watch the game, Kirk Hinrich et al will need to do a better job on Jennings. The fourth-year guard also tallied 7 assists and 5 steals (!).

Of course, the Bucks jettisoned Andrew Bogut in an offseason trade that yielded them another combo guard scoring type in Monta Ellis. Ellis scored 17 on 7-17 shooting Saturday, with only a pair of assists to his name. 

Overall, the Bucks assisted 17 baskets and turned it over 16 times, compared with a Bulls assist:turnover ration of a little over 2:1 (20 assists, 9 turnovers). So, if the Bulls can stop Jennings and Ellis in isolation sets and in transition, holding the Bucks to a sub-90 output shouldn't be exceedingly difficult, especially at home. 

Otherwise, the Bucks have a fairly unimposing cast of characters filling out the rest of the lineup. Small forwards Tobias Harris and Ersan Ilyasova are averaging 8.4 and 6.4 ppg, respectively, with Ilyasova maintaining a horrible PER of 6.6. 

Veteran SF Mike Dunleavy will come off of the bench and chip in some scoring (12.3 ppg), especially from beyond the arc, where he is shooting a sterling 44%. C Samuel Dalembert will come off the bench to be large and whatnot, and rookie Tar Heel John Henson hasn't made a significant impact just yet; he played only 1 minute on Saturday. 

In short, this is a guard-heavy team dependent upon Ellis and Jennings to carry the day. The Bulls should, for the most part, dominate with its front court matchups.

Points of Concern 

Despite not having some big name front court guys, the Bucks are a respectable 11th in rebounding, but only 2oth in offensive rebounding percentage. With the athleticism of the Bucks' guard tandem, the Bulls cannot afford to let the Bucks out-athlete the Bulls on second chance opportunities when the play breaks down. 

Otherwise, it's all about containing Ellis and Jennings, whose athleticism should scare Bulls fan. It's painfully obvious that the Bulls have one of the least athletic starting fives in the league, and players like Ellis and Jennings can do some damage against them. However, they combined for 40 points and still lost on Saturday, so evidently the Bulls got it done elsewhere on the floor.

What Needs To Happen 

• FIND. THE. SHOOTER. In this case, it's Dunleavy. Fairly self-explanatory. He was only 1-4 on Saturday, and can hit if you leave him open, just like any other NBA shooter. There's no reason to let a guy like Dunleavy beat you, so it all starts with good offensive sets and shots on the other end and vigilant transition D when those long rebounds do set Ellis/Jennings off to the races.

• Force 'em to settle. Ellis and particularly Jennings are far less dangerous when they're launching shots from outside. Hinrich et al simply need to keep the tandem in front and perimeter help needs to be vigilant or the pair will score more than 40 combined this time around. The Bulls cannot afford to let the Bucks' average front court guys to get going with easy buckets off of penetration dishes from Ellis/Jennings. The Bucks are 13th in the league in 3-point attempts per game but are shooting only 30%, good for 26th in the league. Let them eat cake shoot threes! Well, they can have cake too if they want it but they'll need to wait 30 minutes until entering the game again. I'm looking at you, Milwaukee front court. Safety first.

• Hit the glass. The Bulls rebounded 40% of their 50 misses (20 ORB) on Saturday. Assuming that, say, Boozer doesn't go 10-15 again from the field --probably a safe assumption given his season thus far-- the Bulls might need that sort of tenacious effort on the glass one more time.

Useless Prediction Time 

• Boozer does not go 10-15 this time against Milwaukee; the 2012-13 adventure in Boozer shooting swings back to the Evil Boozer side of the pendulum. 
• The Bulls rebound at least 40% of their misses once again. 
• With Deng and Noah playings 42 minutes and Boozer playing 36 on Saturday, I'm looking for a relatively well-rested Taj Gibson to have one of the better games of his at times somewhat underwhelming 12-13 season.
• Bulls 96, Bucks 91.

Game 8 Recap: When the Sun Goes Down

Bulls (5-3) 112, Suns (4-5) 106, (OT)

The Bulls began the dread circus trip in Phoenix tonight. They started last year's shortened season with a 4-game run out west, going 3-1, including a thrilling opening win at the Staples Center against the Lakers. Later on, the Bulls embarked on a fairly ridiculous stretch of nine straight road games, albeit all against Eastern Conference squads (save Memphis). 

Thibodeau's Bulls maintained a sterling 24-9 record on the road last season, only two games worse than their home mark. They went 6-3 during that stretch, with Rose playing less than 24 minutes against New Jersey and NOLA and not playing at all against Charlotte and Boston (a loss). 

Of course, the Bulls only had one road contest to their name thus far, a thumping of Cleveland in the second game of the season. So, this upcoming stretch, beginning with tonight's game, will serve as a decent litmus test for just how much ADVERSITY this Rose-less team can handle. 

I unfortunately had to miss most of the first half, so we'll just start with the usual halftime numbers. 

Halftime stats (Bulls 57, Suns 51)

Bulls: 

Team: Points per possession-->0.83 

• Boozer: 8/12 16 points
• Deng: 3/5, 8 points

Suns: 

Team: PPP-->0.96

• Scola: 8/13, 16 points
• Dragic: 4/5, 10 points, 3 assists, 3 turnovers 

---
First of all, it seems like there was maybe 12 people at this game. I guess that's what happens when you're playing a mediocre team and you don't have Derrick Rose. I would urge the people of Phoenix to give Nate Robinson a chance next time around.

After a couple of minutes, a Boozer 17-footer bounced high off the room and came back through the cylinder for two. It was apparently that kind of night for Boozer, who was 9/14 on the night. Shortly afterward, Joakim Noah intercepted a bad Michael Beasley pass and went coast-to-coast with it for the dunk, putting the Bulls up nine.

A Noah layup, a Deng and 1, a Deng trey and Nate-assisted Boozer two propelled the Bulls to a 79-61 lead late in the third, and my concerns regarding the Bulls' chances against teams with somewhat of a pulse (i.e. not Cleveland) on the road abated almost completely.

Of note, watching Michael Beasley turn it over, jack up horrible threes and generally be a minus player reminds me how there was actually a robust Rose-Beasley debate back before the 2008 NBA Draft. It's a good thing I am not an NBA scout.

The Bulls played solid defense in the third overall after giving up 51 through the first two quarters (a lot, for the Bulls at least). Luis Scola dropped 16 points in the first half but didn't pick up his first second half bucket until the very end of the third. Scola missed two jumpers and had another blocked by Luol Deng before finally getting back on the score sheet with eight seconds left in the third.

P.J. tucker and Scola scores in the paint to start the third brought the Bulls lead back down to 10. However, after a helter skelter Bulls possession that saw Taj Gibson saving the ball from entering the back court, Deng hit a ridiculous off-balanced shot as the shot clock expired. However, with the Suns going on a 17-9 run since the apex of the Bulls' lead (back when it was 79-61), the Bulls were not yet in the clear.

A Shannon Brow jumper cut the lead to only five, which might as well be a deficit in the NBA. Even Captain Kirk unraveled a bit, getting after an official who called an offensive foul/didn't call a Telfair handcheck foul on the perimeter. After a couple put back opportunities, the Suns had a chance to the cut the lead to two (or one) on  the next possession but weren't able to connect, a possibly pivotal moment in the game. 

The Bulls nursed a now 5-point lead heading into the second half of the fourth quarter, having seen their once seemingly unassailable lead, well, decidedly assailed. With only eight 4th quarter points through 7:20 of play, the Bulls lead was on the brink of extinction; they lead by just one coming out of a timeout with the ball. The Bulls turned to a bread and butter set, with Hamilton curling for a FT line jumper. Unfortunately, he missed, but Goran Dragic missed a solid look at a corner three at the other end. 

Noah then hit an uncontested 17-footer, but a Telfair trey tied the game up, 93 all, with just under three minutes to go. The two teams traded buckets again, with a nice shot fake into a layup for Nate and a jumper from Scola, who had started to find his offensive game a bit after a quiet third quarter. 

Luckily, the Suns fouled, sending the Bulls into the penalty on their next possession (the Bulls only had one team foul at this point). Nate, however, was only able to sink 1 of 2 at the line. Even so, this came up big on the next possession, where a Phoenix loose ball foul sent Hamilton to the line, where he sank both. 

Hinrich went to the line as well and split a pair, putting the Bulls up 99-95. A ridiculous continuation call on a Shannon Brown drive on Gibson, however, brought the lead back to only 1. It was Boozer's chance to shine here. 

He spotted up for a 16-18 footer on the baseline, for a bucket that would have given the Bulls some much needed confidence going into the next defensive possession. Despite going 11-16 until that point, Boozer missed. 

Phoenix had the ball down 1 with 26 seconds to go. Once again, Brown went after Gibson, only this time he missed. Rip hit the front end but missed the second on his ensuing trip to the line. Of course, the Suns' P.J. Tucker grabbed a loose ball in the paint at the other end and scored to tie the game at 100 all. 

The Bulls came out with Boozer, Noah, Deng, Hamilton and Nate Robinson. Rip curled around a baseline screen from Boozer, settled, and badly missed his attempt to end the game. Overtime it is. 

Scola fouled out and Deng hit a key jumper to give the Bulls a 2-point cushion. Boozer then smartly went after Beasley, drawing a foul and converting both shots from the line. Beasley then delivered a bit of an elbow to Deng's face on the other end, correctly called an offensive foul (NB: in the game of basketball, you are not allowed to elbow people in the face). 

The Suns continued to flail away on the offensive end without Scola (and with Goran Dragic surprisingly uninvolved in the proceedings). Beasley, of all people, came alive near the end, pitching in a jumper and an and 1 to bring the Bulls lead down to 4. 

Always up to the challenge, Noah hit an 18-footer after Gortat seemed reluctant to come out and guard him near the top of the key. Initiate finger gunz. Game Blouses. 

BULLets, Sponsored by "I See What You Did There, Inc."

• Adventures in Carlos Boozer shooting. Given the type of bigs the Suns have, it's not that surprising that Boozer was able to have his best night by far since the Cleveland game. 

• Taj Gibson. With Boozer and Noah both having good to very good nights on the offensive end, Gibson logged a mere 16 minutes in regulation time. With four points and two boards, it was another relatively quiet night for Mr. Gibson (although he did manage two blocks). 

• Et tu, rebounding? The Bulls had a somewhat weak night on the defensive glass, with the Suns grabbing just under 40% of their misses when I last checked about a minute into the overtime period. There's no doubt that this game would not have reached OT if the Bulls were able to clean up on the glass like they normally do. 

• Goran Dragic? Apparently he scored 12 --which all must have been scored before I started watching-- but he seemed to have no role down the stretch whatsoever, which seems a curious thing to me. Telfair was a key player in the Suns' comeback, but you would think the Suns would want to involve one of their most talented offensive players in key late game situations. You can't see this, but I'm currently shrugging. 

• Rippin' the nets. Rip scored 11 points during regulation play, but a pair of jumpers in OT, the second after an ORB, were by far his biggest points of the game and maybe even the season thus far. 

Game 7 Recap: Hot and Cold

United Center

Is a place I should visit

I need file photos

Bulls 95 (4-3), Celtics 101 (4-3)

Apologies for no preview/recap for Saturday's thrilling game against the Timberwolves; I decided not to do them because college football. 

Anyway, the Bulls took on the Celtics at the United Center, the last home contest before the Bulls embark on a 5-game road trip. The Celtics jumped out to an early lead; a 10-2 run put them up 19-10 a little over halfway through the first quarter. Rajon Rondo made the Bulls (i.e. Nate Robinson) look silly on the break a couple times early, which is obviously your primary concern when facing this Celtics team. Of course, this is the NBA, where 10-point leads are the equivalent of being down only one or two scores in the college game. 

Luckily, Carlos Boozer came alive early after four straight games of frankly terrible performances from the field. He made five of his first six shots, scoring 10 in the first quarter despite being checked by Kevin Garnett. Boozer converted a nice shot off the glass falling away, and when Garnett went out he successfully made a move and attacked Chris Wilcox for a nice bucket. 

Defensively, the Bulls gave up 33 in the first quarter, something which probably didn't make Coach Thibodeau too happy. The Bulls had more than a few breakdowns, in both transition and the half court. As expected, Garnett, Pierce and Rondo carried the day for Boston early, scoring a combined 23 points in the first quarter. 

With the second quarter underway, the Bulls were forced to play the rookie Marquis Teague, who would lead the second unit (what with Kirk Hinrich out of commission). He launched a long two on his first possession and missed. I was admittedly pretty excited about him when the Bulls were able to grab in the the draft, but it's pretty obvious that he'll need quite a bit of time before he's truly ready for the show. 

However, Teague did slip a nice pass in to Deng for an assist (and technically got credit for an "assist" on a Belinelli 27-foot three). Otherwise, he didn't do much, good or bad. He was clearly hesitant to do much of anything with the ball, which is kind of amazing if you watched him play at Kentucky last season. On one possession with the shot clock ticking down, he had the opportunity to either launch a perimeter shot or take his defender off the dribble. Instead, he shimmied, dribbled to the free throw line, and dished to Belinelli with about 2.5 seconds on the clock. Oh Derrick Rose, how we miss you so. 

After three straight buckets from Leandro Barbosa (who hurt the Bulls a bit in the second quarter), Brandon Bass and Pierce, the Bulls were down 47-38 with just under four minutes to go. Boozer then got his shot blocked by Bass, who then finished the play on the other end for two. To make matters worse, Nate Robinson turned the ball over trying to split a double team, which lead to a pair of free throws for Bass. It was a disastrous sequence for the Bulls, now down 38-51. 

The Celtics' 58 first half points was the most given up in a first half all year by the Bulls (the most since the Atlanta game in January, per Stacey King). Needless to say, allowing an opponent to shoot 60% from the field generally doesn't result in nice things. 

Halftime stats

Celtics: PPP (points per possession)-->1.26 

• Pierce: 4/7, 10 points, 5 rebounds
• Rondo: 5/6, 10 points, 5 assists
• Garnett: 3/8, 9 points 

Bulls: PPP-->0.99

• Boozer: 6/9, 12 points, 4 rebounds
• Robinson: 1/3, 4 points, 5 assists
• Deng: 5/12, 11 points

---

The game just sort of dragged along, with the Bulls down by 10-14 points throughout most of it. The Celtics continued to shoot it well and the Bulls continued to mostly live and die by the outside shot, which resulted in all sorts of air balls, shots off the side of the glass (ahem, Boozer), etc. The Bulls really never get the transition game going, where Noah held an advantage on Garnett vis a vis general mobility. Alas, Noah was only 2/6 with 6 points well into the third quarter. 

Naturally, there was a sense that Boozer's 5/6 start from the field was an ephemeral thing, and it was; he went 2/8 from the end of that 5/6 start until the end of his third quarter floor time. Boozer gonna Booze(r). 

The third quarter was a purgatorial time of the Bulls being down 10-14 points, the Celtics seemingly not interested in putting the game away and the Bulls too incompetent to get any closer. The Bulls finally pulled within nine with under a minute to go, but former Buckeye Jared Sullinger knocked in a trey with 0.7 seconds to go in the third quarter. 

So, the third quarter was essentially like watching a hamster running in his wheel for 12 minutes. However, the Bulls showed life early in the third. As if on cue, Noah put in a quick five points, and Deng then posted up Barbosa and flipped one up from the elbow (he then converted at the line for the 3-point play). With Rondo on the bench, the Bulls went on a 7-0 run (Boozer was also on the bench during this time, in case you were wondering). 

After Noah hit a pair of FTs, the Bulls were down only three for the first time in seemingly forever. The Bulls defense seemed to pick up the intensity, forcing Garnett to pull the trigger on an outside shot that he airballed. 

Marquis Teague made an aggressive move off the dribble from the top of the key but fended Garnett off with his arm while in the air, spoiling what would have been a very nice play otherwise. On the other hand, the Celtics had fallen completely cold, having shot 2/10 through the first half of the 4th quarter. The C's were shooting "only" 50% now from the field. 

A Deng layup with under a minute to go brought the Bulls to within 2, but Garnett slammed an alley oop home on the other end to bring the deficit back to 4. Just like the Thunder game last week, the Bulls just couldn't come through when they needed to on the offensive end. Gibson missed a pair of free throws and Rondo dropped his 10th assist on the night, resulting in a Bass dunk. Game blouses. 

BULLets, Sponsored by "I See What You Did There, Inc."

• Marquis Teague. I won't belabor the point re: not being ready, but he seems to be his own worst enemy at this point. This isn't saying much, but he is easily one of only a couple Bulls' who can occasionally break a defender down. Teague was very tentative, particularly late in the shot clock. On two separate occasions, he dished it to Belinelli with very little time left on the clock. Especially with Hinrich out, Teague needs to trust his best asset--his ability to break people down--and just play ball. 

• Adventures in Carlos Boozer shooting. He did start off hot, having a good stretch of shooting for the first time since the Cleveland game. However, all good things must come to an end, especially when it comes to Carlos Boozer's outside shooting. I don't need to tell you that he wasn't on the floor when the Bulls made their big 4th quarter push. 

• Captain Kirk. Hinrich is hurt all the time these days, which is kind of annoying, but it's clear that he is more valuable than we might realize. He plays good D and has led the charge in the transition game more than capably through the Bulls' first 6 games. 

• Sometimes I get a bad feeling. The Bulls enter their 5-game circus trip with a 4-3 record and a palpable sense that the Bulls underperformed against NOLA and let one get away against OKC. In any case, the Bulls start their road tour in Phoenix Wednesday night and continue with LAC, Portland, Houston and Milwaukee. If they can go 3-2 or better there, gold stars for everyone. 

• The 100+ point rule strikes again. Just saying, it is ironclad. The Bulls give up 100+, they lose.