Bye Week Breaking Points: Badgers and Buckeyes

With Michigan taking a much needed week off, this is a great week to focus on a big time Leaders division matchup at the Horseshoe between the Ohio State Buckeyes and Wisconsin Badgers. Ohio State, of course, has national title aspirations, while the Badgers are looking to win their fourth Big Ten championship in a row, including their third straight Big Ten championship game victory. Unfortunately for the Badgers, a loss this Saturday will probably prevent them from having the opportunity to play for it.

Were it not for a truly bizarre ending in Tempe (yes, Wisconsin handled it poorly, but there is simply no excuse for the lack of any sort of action by the referees), this would be a meeting of undefeated squads. Alas, that is not the case, but the Badgers are fresh off of a cathartic thumping of Purdue and the Buckeyes had themselves a little tune-up game against FAMU last week to go 4-0.

I've mentioned this here before, but, records aside (i.e. Michigan and Northwestern), I think these are the two best teams in the Big Ten right now. Regardless, this should be a fun game to watch, as this has become an increasingly exciting series the last few years.

A few points bouncing around in my head about this matchup is we get closer to Saturday night:

Braxton Miller rustiness vs. Dave Aranda. With Miller likely to start (despite being listed as a co-starter with Kenny Guiton), rustiness could be an issue for Miller early on. Miller played the opener against Buffalo and just a bit of the first quarter against San Diego State. Badgers defensive coordinator Dave Aranda might look to capitalize early on by trying to confuse Miller with various looks out of the 3-4; B5Q has a nice post on that very thing, highlighting what Aranda did against Purdue last week. The Buckeyes cannot afford to let any Badgers defenders through for clean hits against Miller (as we saw in last year's Michigan game).

UW's three-headed rushing attack vs. OSU rush defense. It's generally fruitless to cite most forms of statistics at this point in the season, but, FWIW, OSU is 9th in rushing defense, allowing just 2.61 yards per carry. Naturally, the Badgers are third in rushing offense, spearheaded by senior James White--who has seemingly been here for (12) years like LL Cool J--and Melvin Gordon*, with freshman 4-star Corey Clement picking up some serious production in Wisconsin's three blowout wins. The Badgers have accomplished this with an offensive line that is good but by no means one of their better lines in recent memory. Gary Andersen's squad had a tough time running up the middle against Arizona State, but found great success on Gordon fly sweeps:

Can they do the same thing against an Ohio State front seven that, before the season, was talented but inexperienced (and now has four games under its belt)? Maybe. Either way, this will be a huge test for Ohio State's linebackers, especially strong side linebacker Joshua Perry and middle linebackers Curtis Grant.

In any case, the Buckeyes haven't exactly faced stiff competition:

What the Badgers bring is a powerful offense than can break a defense’s spirit. Ohio State’s young defensive front has not faced an offense capable of running the football. Buffalo (112), San Diego State (113), California (97) and Florida A&M (107 in FCS) think of the run as an afterthought.

If I had to take a guess, the Badgers will likely have some success early on the Buckeyes defense gets used to the uptick in run game quality. How the Buckeyes responds after that will be the most important facet of this game.

I really liked this boxing-themed lede regarding Ohio State's defense against Wisconsin's rushing attack.

*Gordon's production alone is exceeds that that of 45 FBS teams.

Devin Smith/Philly Brown vs. UW secondary. The secondary was a major concern for the Badgers coming into the season, and in their lone game against decent competition, Arizona State's Taylor Kelly threw for 352 yards (albeit on 51 attempts). Meanwhile, Smith and Brown have to date combined for 32 receptions (16 apiece exactly), 450 yards and seven touchdowns. Smith's 90-yard touchdown reception against Cal was the longest scoring play in Ohio State history. The Badgers have a solid run defense, but can be had over the top. Look for Miller/Guiton to go over the top to take advantage of this weakness.

Joel Stave vs. accuracy. During the offseason, my opinion of the Wisconsin quarterback race, as an outsider, was that Stave was clearly the guy with the most upside and probably the best quarterback on the roster, period. I still think that is true, but after attending last week's game at Camp Randall, I'm starting to understand some of the gripes Badgers fans have re: his accuracy. Stave does well on the short stuff and has a decent arm (as far as I can tell, certainly better than Curt Phillips's arm) but continues to flat out miss open receivers. This was most glaring late in the third quarter, when Stave vastly underthrew Jared Abbrederis downfield. Has Stave thrown it anywhere near Abbrederis's catching radius, the senior receiver likely could have walked to the end zone untouched.

Simply put, if Stave can't stretch the Ohio State defense with his arm, the Badgers are not going to have two 100+ yards rushers, let alone three. I think Stave is a solid quarterback, but if he can't connect deep with Abbrederis--who should be able to get open, even while matched up against Bradley Roby--then the Badgers are doomed to running into stacked fronts with only moderate success at best.

The return of Carlos Hyde vs. Jordan Hall. Although the spotlight has been on Guiton for his performance in Miller's absence, tailback Jordan Hall has quietly put together a stellar stat line while Hyde served out a suspension. Hall has racked up 422 yards and eight touchdowns at 6.2 yards per carry. With that said, Hyde is the more talented player, and it will be interesting to see how he is deployed on Saturday.

With Miller returning from injury, you'd think that Urban Meyer would like to avoid running Miller too much until it's absolutely necessary.

UW nose tackle Beau Allen vs. Ohio State interior offensive line. The enormous Allen (6'3'' 325 pounds) has had to adjust to being the man in the middle in the base 3-4 defense, but it seems he's done an excellent job thus far, especially against Arizona State. The Sun Devils' interior OL couldn't hold off Allen; as a result, they ran for just 2.8 YPC.

The Buckeyes have the pure speed and athleticism to attack the edges, but if the Buckeyes want to have success up the middle, Buckeyes center Corey Linsley and guards Andrew Norwell and Marcus Hall will need to eat their Wheaties. If anything, the Buckeyes might want to loosen up the defense with the pass first.

Wisconsin vs. injuries. I didn't quite realize this until reading this B5Q post, but the Badgers are pretty banged up, to the point that center Dallas Lewallen, tight end Jacob Pedersen and corner Peniel Jean might not even play this week; losing Jean puts some serious pressure on young corner Sojourn Shelton. A freshman Shelton checking either Smith or Brown is not exactly a winning proposition for the Badgers.
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Really, this is a pretty simple game. Wisconsin will try to run the ball; Ohio State will try to force Stave to beat them. The Buckeyes will look to strike deep against a vulnerable Badgers secondary, while the Badgers will look to make Miller uncomfortable with a wide variety of presnap shifting and blitzes coming from unexpected places. Each team has vulnerable spots on defense (Wisconsin's secondary, possibly OSU's front seven against decent competition), and quarterback play, as it always is, will be crucial, but for different premises. Can Stave make plays downfield when Abbrederis manages to get open? What will Braxton Miller look like after not playing the last nine quarters of OSU football?

Making score predictions is a lot like playing darts with one eye covered; but, we do them anyway, because we like to put a nice little bow of closure atop the things we've written.

Although I've developed a bit of an affinity for Madison, I'm not sure that the Badgers leave Ohio Stadium with a win. Gordon and White should have decent evenings, but I'm not sure I trust Stave to connect on big plays when they're there to be made. I also foresee a big play or two through the air to Smith/Brown for the Buckeyes. Ohio State 27, Wisconsin 20. 

HTR's Top 25: Week 5

I missed most of Saturday's football slate due to being out and about in Madison for the weekend, so the following is based mostly on what I've read and highlights, for what it's worth. Week 4 wasn't a particularly exciting one, unless you love uncompetitive blowouts or awful football (e.g. Michigan-UConn). As a result, the rankings didn't do much shifting around this week:

Rank	Team
1	Alabama
2	Oregon
3	Ohio State
4	Clemson
5	LSU
6	Stanford
7	Florida State
8	Louisville
9	Georgia
10	Texas A&M
11	Oklahoma State
12	South Carolina
13	UCLA
14	Miami (FL)
15	Oklahoma
16	Wisconsin
17	Northwestern
18	Washington
19	Ole Miss
20	Florida
21	Michigan
22	Baylor
23	Notre Dame
24	Texas Tech
25	Arizona State

• Very little change this week other than dinging Michigan once again for a poor showing at UConn; No. 21 might be harsh for a 4-0 Michigan team, but after watching the Wolverines the last two weeks, I cannot say that they are a top 20 team. How many of the teams ahead of them in the ranking above do you feel confident about Michigan's chances against?

• In my mind, Wisconsin is a fringe top 10 team, but that loss--or, what is going down in the record books as a loss--is keeping them out for now. The Badgers have a big opportunity to jump into the top 10 this week should they leave Columbus with a victory. 

• LSU's Jeremy Hill is quite good at football. This is where we note that Michigan is going to have a monstrous offensive line in 2015 or 2016 and nod our heads. One day Michigan will be able to run the ball like that again...one day. 

• If this was the NFL, then Kenny Guiton is totally doing his best Matt Flynn impression circa that one time he threw for 480 yards in that one game with the Packers. 

• This week, top 10 teams played: FIU, Bethune-Cookman, North Texas, New Mexico State, and Florida A&M. Why? What is the point? 

• Speaking of teams playing no one of consequence, Minnesota is 4-0 after completing its non-conference slate (UNLV, New Mexico State, Western Illinois and San Jose State). With that said, backup QB Mitch Leidner looked pretty good while filling in for injured starter Philip Nelson on Saturday. The Gophers get Iowa this Saturday for their Big Ten opener, an important matchup for both squads. The Hawkeyes looked about as good this past weekend as they have in some time (albeit against Western Michigan), but the Gophers need to win start winning games like this, especially at home. Although Iowa failed to go bowling last season, they did beat the Gophers; as always, Floyd of Rosedale is on the line. 

The Replacements: Kenny Guiton

Our next stop in this exercise of offseason boredom  completely necessary preview of the lucky candidates to replace Terrelle Pryor is Kenny Guiton. You may be asking: Who? Well, right.

The Basics



Here's a pretty solid preview from over at 11 Warriors (of course, this was written when Pryor was still a Buckeye and OSU was looking for a 5-game "just hand the ball off and don't screw up" guy). I'm not going to lie, I didn't know too much about this guy before this spring but he seems like an intriguing player. As a recruit coming out of Texas, the offer sheet tells the story: no offers from any of the big fish in-state. Other than the OSU offer, he boasted offers from Iowa State, Houston, Kansas State, Rice, and Prairie View A&M (yes, Prairie View A&M). I can't claim to have an extensive knowledge of Buckeye recruiting, but either: a) the OSU coaching staff saw something in Guiton that other Big 12 powers didn't or b) they just wanted to take a quarterback--any quarterback--for depth purposes. It's always wise to get a quarterback per class, and this may be what brought Guiton to Columbus. According to Jason at 11 Warriors, missing out on Tajh Boyd and a few others led to this; Guiton's commitment seems to have been an 11th hour situation.

Despite being a relatively under-the-radar, non-descript 3* prospect, Guiton might have a leg up on a guy like Joe Bauserman simply for the fact that, despite being in his 3rd year on campus, he's somewhat of an unknown entity. Unfortunately for Guiton, an above average spring game performance (11/21 for 167 yards and two touchdowns) in 2010 led to nothing more than sitting behind Bauserman on the depth chart for the year. Jason's take on Guiton's game seems to be on the extremely positive side:

With Pryor out for the first five games of 2011, Guiton has a real chance to grab the starting job in his absence. His throwing motion is smooth and he keeps the ball near his chest on the drop while using a pretty standard two-finger, across the laces grip. Perhaps what is most interesting about Guiton is he has above average athleticism but he rarely looks to run first. 

Sounds like some pretty generic praise, but he does seem to have some pretty decent athleticism to make up for his slight frame (6'2'' 190). For what it's worth, Guiton makes a pretty nice throw at 6:30 of this spring scrimmage video:

The Numbers


There's even less statistical substance on Guiton than there is on Bauserman. He played in 5 games in 2010, going 1 for 2, adding 5 rushes and a touchdown against EMU (poor Ron English). So, yeah, you could say he's a bit unproven despite having been in the program for two full seasons and a spring by now.

Spring Game Hype/Notes


As noted above, Jason thinks that Guiton has a "real chance to grab the starting job." He follows that up with:

Then, when Pryor returns, Ohio State will be in the enviable position of having a star as the starter, an experienced backup with skills in Guiton and the youth movement in the form of either Miller or Graham waiting to take over in a few years, if not sooner.

Ignoring the Pryor part, this just seems like the ideal but unrealistic scenario that we as fans all imagine will come to pass in any potentially troubling situation for our team. Guiton has some skill, but his performance in this year's spring scrimmage didn't separate him from the rest of the field, as he went only 5 for 11 with 67 yards (plus the aforementioned 17-yard TD pass to Verlon Reed). At this point, it's anybody's game, and Guiton hasn't done anything to make anybody think he will be the guy. After basically stealing the show in the 2010 spring game, he is just a guy as of right now. But, there seems to be pockets of excitement surrounding the guy which don't exactly exist for Bauserman and, to a lesser extent, Graham. If I'm getting a correct read on the situation, Guiton is the ultimate wild-card.

Pointless Prognostication


No, guy, he's not Robert Griffin. He's not Troy Smith either. I mean, he could be, but he's probably not. Despite the always reliable and/or relevant "Buckeye Bits" section in his bio, which states that he "has gained noticeable benefits from the off-season workout program," he's still looking pretty Eddie McGee wiry. The 11 Warriors preview notes a tendency to hold onto the ball too long (take that with a grain of salt...small sample size and whatnot), which could get him killed in Big Ten play. He weighs about as much as Denard and is at least two inches taller...he's not big. 


On the other hand, he has shown some flashes in the last two spring games (particularly in 2010). Although Tresel did not deign to promote him to be Pryor's understudy in 2010, a new coach means a clean slate and a new chance to snag the starting job. 


Unfortunately for Guiton, being seen at the now infamous Fine Line Ink in December is not a positive at all. While he hasn't been implicated in anything as of yet, we've slowly learned of the vast gravitational pull of the corruption at the heart of the Ohio State program, and it wouldn't surprise anyone to learn that Guiton is another participant in the parade of malfeasance. It certainly wouldn't surprise me. In any case, it's a situation to monitor going forward. 


It's hard to get a read on Guiton's place in the program going forward. He's a guy with some skill, and by many accounts a bright guy (1340 SAT, for what it's worth). Still, he has even less game experience than Bauserman, and does not seem like a guy who is built to withstand the pounding of a Big Ten slate. To make a long story short, I see Guiton being a guy who will get meaningful snaps only if these two things happen: 1) Bauserman proves himself to be completely, mind-numbingly incompetent at the beginning of the season and 2) Miller struggles at any point after #1 inevitably occurs. Getting playing time will be an uphill battle that will get even tougher if he fails to pass Bauserman on the depth chart by September 3rd. 

The Replacements (Buckeye Quarterbacks Edition): Joe Bauserman

In light of Pryor's exit and the resulting black hole at quarterback position for the Buckeyes, I'd like to run down the roster of remaining quarterbacks (Bauserman, Guiton, Graham, and Miller) to get a feel for what we will be dealing with. I will make some predictions, and many of them will probably be wrong but it's June so I get a pass. This is simply an early look and is by no means comprehensive; however, in the interest of good, healthy "moving on," it would behoove us to know what we'll be up against. I'll start with what sounds like the best case scenario for an ailing Michigan defense: one Joe Bauserman.

Spring QB situation fluff

The Basics

Joe Bauserman, a 6'1'' 230 pounder out of Strasburg, Va. started his Ohio State career as a walk-on in the 2007 season, in which the Buckeyes were eventually thumped by the Tigers of LSU in the national title game, 38-24. Bauserman was a 2-star prospect, ranked the 55th best quarterback in his class (2004) by Scout and a 3-star, 22nd best ranking on Rivals. For a frame of reference, this put him one spot behind Curtis Painter and eight behind Michigan State's Brian Hoyer (this was of course the Henne class, in which he was ranked third behind Anthony Morelli and Rhett Bomar). He's already 25 years old, and has a few years of minor league baseball experience, having been drafted in 2004 by the Pittsburgh Pirates in the 4th round. Apparently that didn't work out, because it's been all football for Joe since 2007.

According to Ohio State's official athletics site, he has "an active arm and ability to make a variety of throws," which would make some sense given that he played baseball. In other relevant news, the "Buckeye Bits" section of his bio explains that he was "third in [the] team bowling competition." Yes, this is indeed important and relevant.

The Numbers


Well, there's not much at all on Bauserman statistically, obviously. Here are his stats: they're not even worth mentioning. So yes, he is old but that doesn't mean he is seasoned in any way. For what it's worth, he did throw touchdown passes against Purdue and Eastern Michigan this past season. There's not much to go on, but even if there was I don't think there'd be much to go on.

Spring Game Hype/Notes:


In OSU's Spring Game, held on April 23rd, Bauserman went:

4-of-11, playing with the first-team offensive line for his first series -- when he was sacked twice, took a delay of game penalty and was flushed again by Simon pressure -- and for his last series, when he threw his only touchdown.

Not exactly a great performance. The usual "it's the Spring Game" (actually, scrimmage) caveat applies, but he didn't do himself any favors. He did throw a touchdown, though.

According to The Plain Dealer:

He was the first quarterback to take the field for Saturday's Ohio State scrimmage, the last of 15 spring practices for the Buckeyes, but most fans probably wouldn't be disappointed if the 25-year-old former minor-league pitcher isn't the first quarterback out there against Akron on Sept. 3. 

The Lantern:

Joe Bauserman picked the wrong era to try to be Ohio State's quarterback. 

Bauserman himself put a word in on his role in the QB race:

"People want excitement and the guy that they've never seen before is going to get them thinking about it," Bauserman said Saturday, speaking to reporters for the first time this spring. "It doesn't bother me. I feel like I can play at this level just as well as anybody else." 

There are many other fluff-type stuff coming from Bauserman like the above, indicating that he is well aware that: a) he has come out of the spring without having secured the job and b) he represents the "unexciting" to the average Buckeye fan. Center Mike Brewster comes in with some boilerplate praise:

"Joe's a real solid guy. He knows the offense. He's going to make the smart play. That's what you want from your quarterback," Brewster said. "I think Joe will be the No. 1 probably going into camp and, you know, he's comfortable back there and that always makes you feel good if your quarterback knows everything about the offense."

This is generally football speak for "talent-deficient" and "can't make a play."There is some mention of his mobility, which could help him some if he actually is able to make the smart play. With tailback Dan Herron and wideout DeVier Posey out, whoever the quarterback is will have to produce some on his own if the Buckeyes are going to escape the first 5 games unscathed. OSU has enough talent to do so, but does Bauserman have what it takes to lift Ohio State's offense from mediocre (i.e., without Pryor, Posey, Herron, etc.) to competent?

Here's some more Spring fluff from the horse's mouth:

Pointless Prognostication:


Bauserman is a lose-lose proposition for the Buckeyes. Despite folks extolling him for his experience, he has played very little (and not a single meaningful snap to boot), and his Spring Scrimmage performance was far from impressive. While I don't want to lob any more criticism at Nick Sheridan, who did his best for Michigan, Bauserman does not seem to be much of an upgrade over Nick. Old+little game experience=a bad situation waiting to happen. We'll see how it progresses throughout the summer and into the fall, but as time goes on, the number of games I see Bauserman playing in before handing over the keys (ZING) to Miller/Guiton/Graham will probably drop. I see Bauserman getting in and managing the Bucks to a pair of uninspiring wins against Akron and Toledo before one of the aforementioned triumvirate takes over. He does have some size and ostensible mobility; he won't be Craig Krenzel (they're approximately the same size), but he could be a poor man's version. Bauserman is basically the default starter on September 3rd if Fickell prioritizes "experience" like a lot of coaches do. Unless somebody else makes a significant push in the fall, it's hard not to see Bauserman at least taking the first snaps of the 2011 season. Like '08 with the Pryor for Boeckman switch in the USC game, I see Miller taking over at some point during the Miami game.