SEC West Preview: Guess Who's Back, Back Again

As I've mentioned approximately 842 times within the last few months: there's not a whole lot going on right now. Michigan's fall camp won't be underway for a couple weeks, so this a good time to survey the vast and completely sensical landscape of college football that exists outside of the Big Ten's non-Rutgers-including-footprint. I'll still be working on the basketball player previews as well, but I'll also attempt to take a semi-thorough look at the other major conferences so that you can orient yourself and be well-informed at tailgates and other social functions in the coming months. I mean, is there anything better in life than being able to rattle off mostly useless college football information to your friends, who, in turn, are completely unimpressed impressed as a result? I don't think so.

I'm going to take a look at the SEC, ACC, Big 12, Pac 12, and maaaybe the Big East if I'm feeling charitable and/or have time. Probably not the Big East, though. Anyway, this week I'll start with the SEC, the recent dominion of ALL THE CHAMPIONS, Golden Flake potato chips, and the banana republic that is contemporary Tennessee football.

For the sake of readability, I'll divide this into multiple posts. Today, let's take a look at the SEC West, the toughest division in college football.

An SEC West football coach.  

What To Watch: Week 1

A pretty self-explanatory concept: I'll run through the Big Ten match-ups each week with a blurb of varying length and a prediction that's doomed to be incredibly wrong. If you're debating whether or not to watch football this weekend or to watch ALL THE FOOTBALL...I suggest the latter, and here's some help. Home teams in bold.

Around the Big Ten

-Michigan-Western Michigan (3:30 ET): I already had my say in my predictions post, but Michigan rolls. Carder is a good quarterback but I seem to remember similar worries in 2009 going into the Western game about Tim Hiller, and we all know how that turned out.

-Wisconsin-UNLV (Thursday 9/1, 8 ET): The Badgers host UNLV, a team that went 2-11 last year (Wisconsin also played them last year, winning 41-21). This should be a fairly easy win for Wisconsin, and it will be worth watching just to see how Russell Wilson looks as the new signal caller for the Badgers. Montee Ball and James White should rack up enough yards to be able to take most of the second half off. 

-Michigan State-Youngstown State (7:30 ET, BTN): Another probable blowout game (if not then the Spartans have issues). Michigan State's issues on the offensive line are well-documented, so if the Spartans struggle in any way to run the ball or generally get wherever they want to on the field then those said issues will linger and intensify as the level of competition goes up. 

-Ohio State-Akron (12:00 ET): This will be another blowout, but could be a game where the Buckeyes come out slow, only to finish with a score that is somewhat unimpressive but still a comfortable win. Bauserman has gotten the nod to receive the first snap but Miller figures to be in the mix for some playing time. Obviously Miller has a long way to go (otherwise he'd be the starter right now over a frankly unimpressive player like Bauserman), so it will be interesting to see if the fanbase begins to clamor for Miller if he shows Bauserman up in these first two cupcake games. 

NU senior quarterback Dan Persa

-Northwestern-Boston College (12:00 ET): Finally, a legitimately interesting matchup...is Dan 

Persa healthy? The progress he has made in the rehabilitation of an injured Achilles will determine

 how NU's season unfolds. BC is not exactly anything special, but they do return 9 starters on 

a pretty good defense (only gave up 18.5 ppg in 2010). BC will be without star tailback Montel Harris for this one, who is out with a knee injury...this combined with a young quarterback who had a pretty terrible 2010 means that NU should have a decent shot to win this one, even if Persa isn't 100%. 

-Indiana State-Penn State (12:00 ET, BTN): Like the OSU game, shouldn't be competitive but worth keeping an eye on how the quarterbacks look (i.e., McGloin vs. Bolden). 

-Middle Tennessee-Purdue (12:00 ET, BTN): Purdue is not going to be very good this year, but Middle Tennessee was 6-7 last year, and they return a mere 3 starters on defense. While the Boilermakers don't have much at all in terms of offensive firepower, if they're going to produce then this is the game you'd think they'd do it. With Henry out, it's worth keeping an eye on how Marve performs. 

-Chattanooga-Nebraska (12:00 ET): Another snoozer. Why are you watching this game? Don't watch this game. 

-Minnesota-USC (3:30 ET): This might be worth watching three or four years down the road after a few years of Kill...not right now, though. This isn't the USC of old, but Minnesota is even worse than Purdue. The Gophers kept it sort of close on paper last year (losing 21-32), but by now Barkley should have metamorphosed into the standard laser-tossing USC future first round pick quarterback that people on the West Coast have been waiting to see. 

-Illinois-Arkansas State: If you'll remember, Arkansas State was of one two non-conference creampuffs to give an actually pretty good Iowa team a scare in 2009 (Iowa won 24-21)...ASU returns most of a terrible defense, as well as almost all of their primary offensive skill players. Any sort of struggle will reflect extremely poorly on the Illini, particularly on the defensive side of the ball as they attempt to replace Martez Wilson and Corey Liuget. 

Iowa-Tennessee Tech (12:00 ET): Another game you shouldn't be watching in even the most dire of circumstances. 

-Indiana-Ball State (Lucas Oil Stadium, 7:00 ET): Not sure why this clash of the titans of the state of Indiana is being played in the home of the Colts, but it is. Indiana being Indiana, this could easily be one of the Big Ten's losses this weekend. I will say that I like Kevin Wilson, and I think it would be pretty cool if Indiana at least became semi-competitive. 

Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin III (via SI)

Around the Country

-TCU-Baylor (8:00 ET): TCU heads to Waco to face a Baylor team that had an okay 2010 (well, pretty good by the standards of the last 10 years or so for them). Baylor returns Robert Griffin III at quarterback, so this could very easily turn out to be the upset of the week if the Horned Frogs aren't careful. TCU is breaking in a new signal caller in Casey Pachall, so we'll see how this one goes. 

-UCLA-Houston (3:30 ET): This isn't a game you're going to watch given that it runs at the same time as the Michigan game, but a loss here could be one of the first nails in the coffin for the Neuheisel era at UCLA. Houston has returned quarterback Case Keenum for one more year after he was knocked out for the year with an ACL injury in the third game against UCLA. 

-Oregon-LSU (Cowboys Stadium, 8:00 ET): One of two huge primetime matchups this weekend. The crowd will most likely be highly pro-LSU, which should make things difficult for the Ducks. Cliff Harris missing this one is a huge loss, however I don't find Jordan Jefferson's absence to be too troubling a proposition for the Tigers. I think the Ducks win the PAC 12, but they won't win this game, as LSU will use the home crowd and their defense (one that is much better than the Auburn defense that stifled Oregon in January) to frustrate the Oregon offensive machine, while manufacturing enough points off of adrenaline and Les Miles's grass-inspired genius. Oregon is a better team in the grand scheme of thing, but being "better" doesn't mean anything when you're standing across the sidelines from a guy like Les Miles, who's about to spin off this planet like Gary Busey at any moment.
-Georgia-Boise State (Georgia Dome, 8:00 ET): As much hype as Boise State gets in this one...do people not remember the last time these two teams faced off? Sure, last time it was in Sanford Stadium, but this one will be played in Atlanta, making it a de facto home game for UGA. UGA returns 7 starters on a defense that 

gave up 22 ppg last year, and they add talented freshman tailback Isaiah Crowell to the mix 

on offense; while I'm not sure that he'll have the impact that Lattimore had for South Carolina last year, he will be a good one and he'll get the chance to prove it early. Aaron Murray is another player that I really like, and he should continue to develop (barring a Henne-esque sophomore slump) even without AJ Green. UGA wins this one with the Georgia Dome crowd behind them and a balanced offensive attack, while also doing enough to stop the run and force Kellen Moore into some mistakes. And thus will end the talk of Boise State's national title hopes in 2011.  

UGA sophomore quarterback Aaron Murray (via Georgia Sports Blog)

Offseason Doldrums, 7/20

The off-season is moving as slow as molasses and there's not a whole lot to talk about. We are still a couple of weeks away from fall camp and I think I've just about had my fill of the situation in Columbus (not to mention other places, like LSU, whose transgressions and resulting punishment elicited nothing but an apathetic nod from me). Given the way the last few off-seasons have gone, I kind of like this. An off-season where the local media and various alumni aren't taking pot shots at the program and its leader? I can get used to this.

Speaking of LSU: When I heard of the aforementioned "punishment"--which consists of a one-year probationary period and a loss of two scholarships--I thought back to The Process and remembered that, even in light of Hoke's lackluster record, I would've taken Hoke over Les in a second. It was a gut feeling that I had a hard time reconciling with conventional ideas like win-loss splits, but I held onto it nonetheless, mostly because of a feeling originating somewhere in the gut vis a vis Les's code of ethics. While Dr. Saturday points out that LSU likely won't see the NCAA's erratic and desultory regulatory hammer come crashing down on LSU as a result of their involvement with Willie Lyles, there is already too much out there on Les not to, at the very least, hold some deep-seated suspicions of him. However, he will never be the head coach at Michigan, so this is just me retroactively patting myself circa January 2011.

Previewin' time is upon us: Hammer & Rails has an early preview of this year's contest in Ann Arbor. The prediction: 31-17, Michigan. Most of the preview is essentially stuff you've already read a million times, but it's always nice to get an outside perspective on things. H&R asks:

How much of last year's success was based on the weather vs. Kerrigan's disruptive presence? Bother were factors in us having a modicum of success against an excellent offense, but since we could do nothing when we had the ball it went for nothing. We'll need a similar defensive effort this season if we're to win our third game in four tries against Michigan.

It's hard to tell, but as someone who attended the game in West-Lafayette last season...the weather was awful. It was just an all-around unpleasant environment for a spread offense (or any offense, really), and the offense struggled after dropping 67 on the Illini. Having been to Ross-Ade several times throughout my childhood, I harbor no ill-will towards Purdue football, but Purdue should not be too good this year once again. Ryan Kerrigan's terrorizing influence having left the program, the defense figures to be a lot less threatening, and that's one less person for Denard to have to evade if things break down.

Pre-season watch lists: Denard, Mike Martin, et al made some pre-season watch lists, for what it's worth (which is not much, in case you were wondering). I don't see any of our candidates winning one of these awards, but Denard and Martin figure to be our best bets (with the former probably being unlikely given the unfortunately inevitable drop in his offensive output).

More previewin': Brian profiles 2011 jack-of-all-trades-master-of-none recruit Frank Clark. I knew he was a guy that didn't have a position but I'm not sure if I've ever heard of a guy with such a wide variance of potential positions on the field. As Brian notes, Clark won't sniff the field for quite a while unless absolute disaster strikes.

Resurrection in Tallahassee?: Dr. Saturday seems to think that it's in the cards for the 2011 season. This season will be much like last year: no clear, absolute favorites. I'm not sure if this is "the year" for FSU, especially given the loss of Christian Ponder (although E.J. Manuel figures to be a good one), but the general lack of any clearly extraordinary teams will make the road much easier for Jimbo Fisher in his second year as the head honcho. For what it's worth, The Wolverine Blog is also high on the Seminoles. I am firmly in the "I'll believe it when I see it" camp when it comes to contemporary FSU football. Their schedule does set them up nicely, though; the ACC slate won't offer any challenges unless they meet Virginia Tech in the ACC title game. The only other tests are a crucial early season showdown against the Sooners and a trip to Gainesville to meet the Muschamp-led Gators, who they absolutely crushed last season.

This year's national champion will likely come from this group of teams: Oklahoma, Alabama, Florida State, and LSU. It's tempting to put a Wilson-led Badgers squad in there, but I just don't think they have enough to compete with the aforementioned (particularly in light of their Rose Bowl performance). Oregon and Stanford are also in the conversation but each have their own issues that make a championship campaign by either somewhat unlikely. Odds are, nobody goes undefeated this year and chaos reigns, as usual. I will say this: as much play as the Davids of the college football world (e.g., Boise State), I think it's good for college football when teams like FSU, Miami (Fl), etc. are good. Of course, that certainly goes for Michigan as well.

Media Day(s) are nigh: SEC Media Day kicks off today in Hoover, AL (Big Ten Media Days kick off next Thursday...don't pretend like you won't painstakingly parse every throwaway comment. You will.). Orson compiles a list of hypothetical questions:

"Coach Petrino, is Ryan Mallett the dankest qb ever? Don't worry about what that means. Just say yes."

Media Day is usually a long boring affair that produces maybe one or two interesting comments at most, but, like the release of Phil Steele's magazine, it represents yet another step towards real live football. That is, unequivocally, a good thing.