Thursday, August 2, 2012

Watershed

With a month to go until the start of Team 133's season--and fall camp starting soon--this is probably the last chance to sit and reflect on last year's team and this offseason as a whole before things start to pick up again. This is a time for the consumption of formulaic positional rankings posts, W/L predictions, and any other number of pre-season drudgery, sure, but it's also a time for thoughtful consideration of the things that have happened in the world of college football in the last year or so, Michigan-related or not.

Michigan finished last season at 11-2, its best record since the 2006 season. Needless to say, Michigan exceeded the hopes of even the most optimistic sort; personally, I had Michigan going 8-4, with losses to Notre Dame, Iowa, Illinois, and Nebraska. Like many Michigan fans, I was uncertain about Brady Hoke's ability to return Michigan to respectability and/or greatness...that is, until his opening press conference. After that, it became fairly obvious that he was the proverbial "good fit", and that many of the problems that plagued the RR regime would not be an issue under Hoke. I think I've mostly done away with the inescapable shame stemming from my brief and UNACCEPTABLE period of pre-press conference questioning of the hiring/The Process. But, as our old friend Rich Rodriguez once said: it's in the past.

The season began and it was immediately obvious that things were different. After Western Michigan had some early success moving the ball, Mattison's defense hunkered down and looked altogether like a unit that was receiving actual attention and coaching as opposed to being the ancillary complement to the offense that it was under RR (and I say that as a former RR uber-fan).

The Notre Dame game was...something. Almost a year later, I still don't know how to describe it. The title of the Monday game recap I did for that game just about sums up my ongoing state of mindless WOOOO-ing regarding that game. It has become a dream-like substance that requires revisiting because of its exciting nature and yet in some paradoxical way loses some of its merit in the process. Watching last yea's Notre Dame game during one of the BTN's numerous offseason airings is kind of like explaining a joke to someone. Some things, when picked apart too much, lose their mysticism.

With that said, it was an unforgettable experience to be in the stadium that night. An midsummer autumn night's dream, it was.

Despite it all, there was still the creeping underlying notion that not only was Michigan very lucky to win, there was still the possibility that, like the previous two seasons featuring heart-stopping victories over the Irish, Michigan might not be all that good for all its theatrics. However, those concerns were allayed as the season went on, partly due to a relatively easy schedule but mostly due to a defensive renaissance and a strong running game.

As I stood in the Superdome terrace this past January, watching the confetti fall and listening to Junior Hemingway's voice quaver under the atmospheric weight and mountains of circumstance, I marveled at how little all of this meant to me. Let me explain. The fact that Michigan had gone 11-2 was unbelievable, made even more remarkable by the fact that it was probably a top 5 season in my career as a watcher of Michigan football (dating back to approximately 1996, the season holding my first real-time memories of watching) in a year which no one expected to be nearly that good. Michigan had won its first BCS game since the turn of the millennium, the Orange Bowl game on 1/1/2000 against Alabama. All of this was done with essentially the same roster that RR had the year before. Think about it: the odds of Michigan experiencing a similar statistical defensive turnaround again during your lifetimes is highly unlikely (which, I guess, is a good thing). The end product of Michigan's season was spectacular, but not nearly as impressive as the path Michigan took toward reaching that end.

Yet, none of that mattered to me. What did endure was the fact that players like Mike Martin and Ryan Van Bergen and Junior Hemingway all stuck it out, despite having the misfortune of attending Michigan during its leanest stretch since the '60s. They improved year by year, incrementally but noticeably, and they were endearing and fun to watch. Michigan did not win a national title or a Big Ten championship last season, and yet I found it almost on the same plane of worship as the 1997 season. In past years, I would have been upset that Michigan had lost to Michigan State and Iowa the way that they did, that Michigan had simply bungled yet another opportunity to win a national title (not that that was a realistic outcome), but last year I really wasn't.
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Many other changes in my fandom have come to pass in the past year or so. As anybody who reads this humble blog with any sort of regularity would know, I've become decreasingly passive-aggressive in  my distaste with the business of recruiting, a distaste which has become more and more unconcealed by the day. I'm not sure exactly when this transformation took place, but maybe this is the natural result of getting older and become slightly more mature (only slightly).

I generally think that the mania surrounding Terrelle Pryor's recruitment was the beginning of the end for me with respect to the hyper-obsessive following of recruitment. I, like most other Michigan fans, had an almost nonsensical obsession with the tracking of Michigan's recruiting efforts. I spent time reading recruiting round ups on MGoBlog and elsewhere, mindlessly storing names of various recruits in my brain--mental storage space that could have been occupied by something useful, and yes, brains do work exactly like pay-for-storage businesses--that often had no realistic chance of landing in Ann Arbor: a wideout from California, a tailback from Georgia, a defensive end from Florida.

Maybe it was graduating from college--and consequently finding myself older than even Michigan's senior players--that did it, but eventually I realized that this recruiting hobby was all mostly an incredible waste of time. The fact that I was no longer worried about what this would mean for the precious vitality of my Michigan fandom/Mandom was a harbinger of other wholesale shifts in my philosophy as a college football fan.

Like others, the Penn State scandal, among many other more consequential things, allowed me an opportunity to reassess what I find important about Michigan and all the connotations that go along with being affiliated with Michigan, as a fan of its athletics and a recent alumnus.  This is in no way meant as some sort of haughty reaction to the Penn State fan base's response to the scandal (generalization is a bad thing), but it has become very obvious to me, in the year and a few months after graduation, that what makes me miss Michigan does not begin and end with football, or basketball, or hockey.

At the same time, with the PSU scandal, the NCAA issues at Ohio State, Oregon, Miami, UNC, and elsewhere, the NCAA's seemingly arbitrary timetables and rationale for the levying of punishments, in addition to the insanity of realignment and the playoff debate, this offseason was also one that fostered a burgeoning nihilism regarding the game that I have held above all others. Other than Michigan football, I follow Michigan football, four pro teams, and Michigan hockey to a lesser extent, but there has never been any question which sports reigns supreme in my eyes. However, all of these things started to make me question my admittedly very, very naive perspective of college football as this inviolable concept.

Unfortunately, college football at a macro level is becoming increasingly unappealing, like looking at anybody under those doctor's office fluorescent lights: everything looks a little bit worse. It's not that I dislike change, it's just that being older and thus more capable of understanding the minutiae of the business--and oh is it a business--of college football makes for a significantly more conflicted experience. In fact, it makes for an infinitely more conflicted experience, because without said knowledge, the only conflict is the ultimately Knowing the pettiness of these proceedings and the frivolous nature of most discussion about college football (and sports in general, really), have forced me to think twice about this obsession. Ignorance truly is bliss.

After a while, as I did with recruiting, I stopped paying attention to the daily bits of innuendo in the world of realignment and the playoff debate, and I was much better off for it. Both of these targeted downsizings of my fandom allowed me to retreat to a more local, Michigan-centric level. However, it also gave me an opportunity to devote more time to understanding the rich tapestry of variegated tradition that is college football, one which I think is unsurpassed in the world of sports.

I've written ridiculously long posts about each Alabama positional group, previews of the SEC East and West, the ACC Coastal and Atlantic, and, in the coming weeks, posts on the Pac 12, Big 12, and Big East. When I first started this blog two years ago, there was literally no way I would have even considered doing any of these things, let alone writing at length about any of them with some level of comfort.

Reading Pre-Snap Read and various team-specific websites--whether independent ones or teams' respective SB Nation sites--has allowed me to increase my knowledge about college football exponentially. Never before would I have considered reading a lengthy offseason post about, say, Northwestern, but I have done so this offseason. As a result, I will enter this college football season with a body of knowledge dwarfing what I had going into any other season.

Speaking of Northwestern and following along with the theme of a more macroscopic, non-Michigan-centric view of the college football landscape, I will be attending Northwestern this fall for grad school. As a result, I have taken to reading blogs like Sippin' on Purple and Lake The Posts with regularity, almost as regularly as I read MGoBlog and EDSBS, which is saying something. This would explain the seemingly frequent Northwestern references here throughout the last three or four months. The point is, my appreciation for the game as a whole has driven me to do things like, gasp, maybe care a little bit about teams other than Michigan. This doesn't even have to do with some absolute value of fandom, which is not the zero sum game that many so called superfans make it out to be (i.e. that supporting another team in any way somehow subtracts from your love of your first team). Rather, it's an expression of appreciation and curiosity, both of which are decidedly good things. I'm not saying that I'm going to miss Michigan games to go watch the Wildcats play, but I might end up DVRing and watching them later. At no point in the past have I ever thought about doing that for any team, let alone Northwestern.

I mean, in no other offseason would I have been as equipped to write a post like this about Iowa or one like this about Northwestern. It just would not have happened, and I think that's partly a testament to the writing practice that I get on here as well as my willingness to venture out into the great unknown of college football, also known as "teams other than Michigan."Believe it or not, there are a lot of great and interesting things going in the world of college sports outside of the University of Michigan; familiarizing yourself with these things, in my opinion, actually serves to make you a better Michigan fan and/or Michigan Man (if you're that sort of person).

But Fouad, why are you saying all this when you said before that this is all frivolous and basically a waste of time? Well, you're right. This is frivolous, and if there is anything that has changed the most in my outlook in the past year or so, it's that this is: a) supposed to be fun and b) that this is so laughably not life and death.* You would think that the latter would be obvious, but it's amazing and honestly somewhat frightening how much the actions of a squad of 18-22 year olds can affect the psyche of an otherwise well-adjusted adult human. Whereas games like the 2010 Penn State game and the 2009 Michigan State game (and many, many others) left me in a world of hurt, I found myself shrugging off Michigan's 2011 losses fairly easily. Progress!

*A phrase in the sports fan's lexicon that is almost matched in thoughtless by the analogies drawn between sporting events and things like war or other disasters.
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I've said this about Denard approximately 372 times in the last couple of years, but if there is anything to take from college football, anything worth tethering yourself to, worth clinging to like it is the sole source of nutrition for your fandom, it is the memories of the players themselves and the component parts of your favorite triumphs. The latter is, of course, in contrast with the remembrance of the end result of the triumph itself--the fact that it yielded a win, the final score, yardage totals, records set. Remember the way that Denard ran that first time against Western Michigan, not that he would go on to break all sorts of records that in the end are sterile and meaningless things. Drop a statistical nugget, an ugly bundle of numbers, into your metaphorical pool of memory and it sinks to the dark bottom. Drop the memory of Denard dropping the snap, picking up and running past everyone on his first play floats, even runs, atop the surface of those same mental waters.

These people that we watch every Saturday are not only players, they are human beings with a set of differentiating characteristics that make the existence of another person like them literally impossible. As such, each player, even the little-used or the not very good, should be given their due respect. Even Jareth Glanda produced a memory for Michigan fans to lock away and store forever, a point of raw memory that many will recall thirty years down the road when thinking about the 2012 Sugar Bowl. Sure, it helps that Michigan won, but Glanda's simultaneously hilarious and timely "reception" might prove to be a more lasting note in the annals of Michigan football than the fact that Michigan won the Sugar Bowl, a glorified exhibition game.

Also, lest I verge too far into the realm of the morbid, it is always good to appreciate these players that give their time, their bodies, and their minds to Michigan, simply because you never know how much longer they (or anyone else, really) will remain in this world. This is true of everybody in every walk of life, but for a sport that is often, as I said, considered "life and death" by some, it is important to remember what life and death actually are. Death is final. The extinguishing of a life is final. Your sadness after a Michigan loss compared to these things is like the Earth's place in the Milky Way galaxy: it is an incredibly insignificant speck of dust in a larger speck of dust within a Universe holding billions and billions of these larger specks.
That little spot is how important the result of sporting events ultimately are vis-a-vis everything else in existence...i.e. not very. Still, there is considerable good to be found therein. 

As we approach, I will pour more time into this sinkhole of an obsession, running down my various predictions for various teams, players, conferences, etc. Whether or not the things I write here are widely read, this has been a fun thing and a good outlet for my thoughts on the teams and sports that I love. In a way, creating this blog and tasking myself with formulating thoughts on various offseason and in-season happenings has subconsciously molded and changed my opinions on a lot of things: recruiting, realignment, playoffs, the overall intentions of the principle players of college athletics, the ultimate importance of any of this stuff.

Let us praise great men and appreciate what has been accomplished. Just as importantly, let us question the things that need questioning. If this post seems incredibly disjointed, that's probably because it reflects the inefficiencies and hypocrisy of the NCAA and collegiate athletics. In a way, such an entity can only be responded to in kind with a similarly disjointed and conflicted message. Even so, this is a good time to tinker with that message, to reformulate and recalibrate the reasons and mechanisms of our fandom.


In a month, the season will start and there will be plenty to talk about. The Alabama game will produce some sort of significance, good or bad, a sort of barometric measuring of the strength of Michigan's football program. Michigan will travel to Notre Dame, Nebraska, and Ohio State, and will attempt to end Michigan State's winning streak at home. Very soon, there will be a lot to talk about: narratives to build up and deconstruct, statistical models to analyze and fit to certain theoretical frameworks, and a bevy of new memes and hilarious gifs.


For now, let's also savor this ephemeral silence. Very soon, things will become much louder.

Wednesday, August 1, 2012

ACC Atlantic Preview: The Unpredictable Ones

Already blabbered about: SEC West, SEC East, ACC Coastal 
I took on the fairly straightforward Coastal division yesterday, where everything's coming up Milhouse Virginia Tech. Let's talk a little bit about the Atlantic division, if for no other reason than to help me (and you) commit to memory which teams are in which division (don't lie, you don't know either). 


Prologue
Florida State, after winning 10 games in 2010, entered the 2011 season with the standard amount of hype. This time, however, there was a pervading sense that maybe just maybe this time it was for real, that on the back of a stout defense and EJ Manuel's play at quarterback, the Noles would be a legitimate national contender once again. This was yours truly circa last August:
This might end up making me look really stupid but I think this is FINALLY the year that Florida State is legitimate once again. Replacing Ponder might be an issue, but EJ Manuel is not exactly chopped liver (talent-wise, at least). He will have to grow up fast with a home date against the Sooners coming in the third week of the schedule. The ACC is fairly mediocre once again, and with no Virginia Tech on the regular season schedule, the Seminoles have an outside shot at a BCS title game berth in my humble opinion. Plus, second year coaches and whatnot. 
That didn't exactly work out. I'm not sure why I decided to trust in Florida State last season, but it predictably backfired, as the Noles, after losing a close primetime game at home against Oklahoma (who turned out to be good but not exactly transcendent), went on to lose two more, @ Clemson and more embarrassingly @Wake Forest. FSU as developed a strange habit out of losing to Wake Forest of late, one that I can't really explain. That's been FSU of the last decade or so, though: incredibly inconsistent, prone to fiery epic collapses while still remaining one of the most talented teams around (according to the scouting services, at least). This sounds very familiar.

Luckily for the Noles, they went on to win out save for a one-point home loss on November 19th against Mike London's improved Cavaliers. Although FSU recovered nicely last season, the home loss against UVA further underscored the fact that the patina of invincibility that once seemed to emanate from the field at Doak Walker has completely worn away over time; the Cavaliers had not won at Doak in their previous eight trips before last season's late game triumph.

For all the e-ink spilled regarding FSU, it was Clemson that won the Atlantic division in 2011. Yes, the always entertaining nexus of EDSBS commenters' faux ire verging on ironic approval. For years, Clemson has been known as the talented but incredibly underachieving team. Clemson has always struck me and many others as the most SEC-esque of all the ACC schools in a number of ways. However, the Tigers have not been able to position themselves as a team that can make noise on the national stage as Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Florida have in the last six years. After Dabo Swinney took over for Tommy Bowden midway through the 2008 season, he led Clemson to 9-5 and 6-7 records in his first two full seasons in town before leading the Tigers to a 10-4 record and their first ACC championship since 1991 last season.

Clemson started off 8-0, and like many, each week I had to make some sort of "Clemson is still somehow undefeated" comment during my weekly ranking post. Things fell apart near the end, as the Tigers lost by two touchdowns at Georgia Tech, then got killed in consecutive weeks on the road at N.C. State and South Carolina, the former being one of the more perplexing losses of the season for any team, anywhere. On the bright side, the Tigers finally broke through and won the conference and made it to a BCS game. Whether Dabo Swinney can take this program any further remains to be seen, but Clemson is certainly paying its coordinators--OC Chad Morris and new DC Brent Venables--enough to indicate that they are serious about winning.

Also Clemson-related, but since I don't know where else to put this, please look at the caption under the picture on Swinney Wikipedia profile: tremendous and likely accurate. This is why the young people look to Wikipedia first for their most rigorous scholastic exertions.

The rest of the division is a sea of teams existing anywhere on the spectrum from outright horrible (Maryland) to mediocre (N.C. State). Maryland was simply horrific in every facet of the game, including their choice of jersey design. They finished 2-10 (1-7), with their only meaningful win coming at home to start the season on a Monday night against Miami; the other win came against Towson. To make things worse, QB1 Danny O'Brien transferred out to Wisconsin.

Boston College was similarly bad, going 4-8 (3-5) under third year HC Frank Spaziani, who is, if you look really hard, basically just a strange combination of Stan Van Gundy and Tom Selleck.
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Wake Forest and N.C. State are the interesting teams to watch in this division outside of the obvious favorites (Clemson and FSU). Under long time head coach Jim Grobe, the Demon Deacons went 6-7 en route to a topsy turvy season that sent them to a bowl game for the first time since 2008. I say topsy turvy because without having watched the games and looking at their 2011 results, you'd be liable to think that somebody was just picking scores out of a hat for this WF team. After starting the season with an OT loss at Syracuse, WF rattled off four straight wins before getting thumped at Virginia Tech. Things fell apart after that, as they went 2-4 the rest of the way, not including the bowl game loss against Mississippi State. They were able to beat divisional foes FSU and N.C. State but got destroyed at UNC and somehow lost to Vanderbilt at home 41-7 to close out the regular season.

In the same vein, Tom O'Brien's Wolfpack also were somewhat of a wild card, beating the Cavaliers in Charlottesville and completely flummoxing Clemson at home, 37-13, when the Tigers were ranked #8 in the country. They also lost to Wake Forest, Boston College, and at Cincinnati, 44-14.

Comings and Goings 
I didn't do this for the first three previews, but I will from now on: all NFL draftees will henceforth appear in bold. Departures of note:

  • FSU-Bert Reed-WR, Beau Reliford-TE, Ja'Baris Little-TE, Zebrie Sanders-OT, Nigel Bradham-WLB, Terrance Parks-SS, Mike Harris-CB, Andrew Datko-OT
  • Clemson-OT Phillip Price, OT Landon Walker, TE Dwayne AllenNG Brandon Thompson, DT Rennie Moore, DE Andre Branch, CB Coty Sensabaugh 
  • Wake Forest-Tristan Dorty-DE, Kyle Wilber-OLB, Cyhl Quarles-SS, Josh Bush-FS, Chris Givens-WR, Joe Looney-OG, Cameron Ford-TE, Doug Weaver-OT 
  • N.C. State-T.J. Graham-WR, Terrell Manning-OLB, Audie Cole-ILB, J.R. Sweezy-DT, Markus Kuhn-DT, Jay Smith-WR, George Bryan-TE
  • Maryland-QB Danny O'Brien (transfer), Davin Meggett-RB, Cameron Chism-CB, Trenton Hughes-CB, Tony Logan-WR, Quintin McCree-WR
  • Boston College-Luke Kuechly-ILB, Mark Spinney-C, Donnie Fletcher-CB, Montel Harris-RB* (dismissed from team), Ifeanyi Momah-TE
By numbers of returning starters (including special teams): 1) Florida State-18 2) Boston College-17 3) Maryland-17 4) N.C. State-16 5) Clemson-15 6) Wake Forest-12

Although I mentioned yesterday that the odds of a VT-Clemson conference title game are pretty good, FSU has to be the Atlantic favorite on paper. Eighteen returning starters, including starting quarterback EJ Manuel and a nasty defense that returns the starting front four completely intact and loses only two in the back seven. Starting tailback Devonta Freeman is also back after a decent 2011; back-up Jermaine Thomas is off to the NFL and I haven't really heard anything of late regarding James Wilder Jr.'s legal issues. If Freeman can carry the load and take some pressure off of Manuel, this could be a team in contention for a national title game appearance in November. I'm only committing to "could", however, after getting burned by the Noles last season. 

This Clemson team kind of reminds me of the 2008 iteration on offense: talented skill players, good bit of offensive linemen to replace. As we all know, a sub-par OL can make even the most talented skill players look like nobodies. Clemson has to replace three 2011 starters this year, just like they did in '08. Defensively, the Tigers need to replace 75% of the DL, but the back seven returns intact. As a whole, the defense should improve under new DC Brent Venables.  

Intra-Division Games To Watch 
Once again, here's the helmet schedule.


1) Clemson-Florida State, September 22nd. This is the obvious choice for #1 in the Atlantic division.  Both teams have high hopes, some built on reality and some built on vague notions of talent and, in FSU's case, the omnipresent shadow of history and past success. After rattling off 11 straight wins against Clemson between 1992 and 2002, the Noles have gone 3-6 against the Tigers since. On the bright side for FSU, the home team as won this game the last four times they've met.

2) Clemson-N.C. State, November 17th. There's a big drop-off after #1 on this list, but this is still an important game, especially for Clemson. Last year's loss in Raleigh was one of the more surprising losses of the season, which is sort of a testament to how much good faith Clemson had built up to that point (i.e. that such a loss was surprising at all). This is Clemson's last conference game before taking on the Gamecocks at home. Luckily, the Tigers also get the Wolfpack at home this time.

3) Florida State-Wake Forest, September 15th. Okay, don't laugh, but FSU has somehow gone 2-4 against WF in their last six meetings. The Demon Deacons are clearly the Seminoles' IT'S A TRAP game, although it shouldn't be so much of a trap anymore for FSU, you would think. Also, this game takes place a week before the FSU-Clemson showdown, so there is classic letdown potential yada yada yada.

4) Florida State-N.C. State, October 6th. Don't have much in the way of specifics to say about this one other than that this is the next permutation in the Clemson-FSU-N.C. State triumvirate. This is the Wolfpack's first divisional game of the season; if they want to be taken seriously in the division, taking out the Noles at home

5) Wake Forest-Clemson, October 25th. Looking at WF's schedule, if they split their trips to FSU and Virgina, they could very easily be 6-1 heading into this game, a Thursday night matchup at home. Needless to say, if all goes according to plan, an upset win here would improbably put the Demon Deacons at or near the top of the division. This is admittedly a best case scenario sort of thing for Wake, but the other conference games in the lead up to the Clemson game, other than the aforementioned FSU and UVA games, are: UNC, Duke, and Maryland. Even for WF, that is extremely manageable.

LAZY NARRATIVES GALORE 

  • FSU and Clemson herpin' and derpin'. Is this the year that either Clemson or FSU finally run through the schedule without an unexpected derp or two? Both have programs with fan bases that expect much more (see "national championships"), which might not be so realistic in Clemson's case but hey, who am I to cut down someone's dreams? With that said, Clemson did a good job of avoiding its own brand of Sparty No! moments up until November last season. The next step is to avoid those losses and at least put yourself in the picture of a national title game berth. On the other hand, FSU needs to avoid the lethargic start that it experienced last season. 
  • N.C. State: on the way up? After three sub-.500 seasons to start the O'Brien era, the Wolfpack have won 9 and 8 games in 2010 and 2011, respectively. They even picked off eventual conference champion Clemson. Sixteen returning starters is enough to allow for expectations to build a little bit. The Wolfpack start the season in Atlanta against Tennessee; that should be a solid initial indicator of whether or not this is the same old forgettable Wolfpack or if this is a team worth paying attention to. 
  • Clemson déjà vu. Like I mentioned earlier, Clemson's 2012 team kind of reminds me of what it had in 2008: a lot of skill position talent with several holes on the offensive line. Everyody wants to talk about Sammy Watkins and Tajh Boyd, but the Tigers need to replace 3 starters on the OL or Boyd won't have time to find anybody, especially against a fast and talented defense like FSU's. 
Obligatory Heisman Candidate Section That Nobody Cares About But Here It is Anyway 
1) Tajh Boyd, QB, Clemson
2) EJ Manuel, QB, FSU
3) Sammy Watkins, WR, Clemson
4) Mike Glennon, QB, N.C. State


OFFICIAL MEANINGLESS PREDICTION
Whatever happens, with Clemson and FSU being the favorites, this division should, at the very least, be fairly exciting. Both teams have a penchant for losing to teams with way less talent, a trend that has developed over much of the last decade. Even last year, Clemson won the division and still had a few stinkers against N.C. State and Georgia Tech, and that's not even mentioning a loss against South Carolina that could have been considered hotly contested when juxtaposed with the Orange Bowl box score.

Regardless, this Clemson team should be more 2011 Clemson than the Clemson we've come to know in practically every other year this side of the new millennium. The Tigers have to replace a not insignificant amount of talent, particularly on the offensive and defensive lines. Like always, Clemson has the skill, with Tajh Boyd at QB, Sammy Watkins at wideout, and senior Andre Ellington at tailback. The question, as it has been before, is whether or not Clemson has the quality in the trenches. Swinney's recruiting has been strong, so we will see how well those losses are replaced; success would indicate that this program has matured greatly since Swinney took over back in 2008.

Much of the same could be said for Florida State. After going along with the people that had FSU as a darkhorse NC contender in 2011, I am understandably skeptical. After last year's 3-game losing streak early on (Oklahoma-Clemson-Wake Forest), it's hard not to look at the 4-week stretch of WF-Clemson-@USF-@N.C. State with a little bit of suspicion. Would a 1-3 record during that stretch really surprise you? No? That's exactly the problem. That said, E.J. Manuel will be a 5th-year senior and most of what was one of the most dominant defenses not based in Baton Rouge or Tuscaloosa last season returns this year.

Otherwise, you will find that N.C. State is the trendy darkhorse pick in the division. Mike Glennon is one of the more underrated QBs in the country, but I'm not sue that this team is strong enough from top to bottom to make a serious push for the divisional crown. Similarly, Wake Forest is a team with upset potential; however, I'm no sure that they have enough to make a serious push. On the positive side, as I mentioned earlier, their first seven games are navigable, with games against UNC, FSU, @UVA being the key tilts. If Wake can manage to go at least 1-2 in that trio of games and somehow upset Clemson at home, then as Cosmo Kramer would say: giddy up.

Like Duke, Maryland and Boston College are probably not worth discussing at length. If you are still interested in learning more about them, then: a) you must be really, really bored and b) here are the Pre-Snap Read preview posts for Maryland and BC.


As much as it pains me to do after last season, I'm writing FSU in for the Atlantic division title this season. This is one of those decisions that you make and constantly regret before anything even happens, but so it goes. I like FSU's defense, and although Clemson probably has better non-QB skill players, FSU's are more than capable. Throw in Clemson's OL/DL issues and I think that FSU is a cut above the Tigers this season.

Dangit, I knew this was going to happen and there was nothing I could do to stop it. Well FSU, don't make me look stupid again for trusting you, please.

ACC Atlantic Standings 
1) Florida State
2) Clemson
3) N.C. State
4) Wake Forest
5) Boston College
6) Maryland

Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Northwestern WR Kyle Prater Ruled Eligible

In general Big Ten news, Northwestern wide receiver Kyle Prater, who transferred from USC, has been ruled eligible to play this season, a decision from the NCAA which Wildcat fans have been anxiously waiting on for many months. Getting a guy like Prater would've been huge for Michigan, but for Northwestern he might as well be a literal fusion of Jerry Rice, Larry Fitzgerald, and Plaxico Burress in one DB-destroying form.

But seriously, this should be a big addition to what is somewhat surprisingly a very solid group of wide receivers, even after losing top receiver Jeremy Ebert to the NFL. Northwestern has a deep group, consisting of Demetrius Fields, Christian Jones, Tony Jones, and Venric Mark. Now, you can add Prater to the mix. Needless to say, Michigan's secondary depth will be tested. When NU spreads us out with four or five wide and Colter decides to run around, our linebacking speed will also be challenged.

A reminder: Prater is 6'5''. Considering that Michigan's corners are all very, very tiny, this could be a problem on November 10th when Northwestern comes to town. Kain Colter probably still won't be zinging it all over the field like he's Dan Persa just yet, but there's no doubt that he will probably have improved a decent bit by this November. If Michigan isn't careful this one could end up being the Inexplicable Conference Loss that was a regular thing under Lloyd.* FWIW, Christian Jones is 6'3'', Tony Jones and Fields are 6'0'', and Mark is 5'8''.

Prater was a 5-star prospect wanted by basically everybody, including Michigan. If he can contribute like his talent would indicate that he can, Northwestern might have a sneakily good offense despite not having a real solid option at tailback to take the load off Colter. It might be too early to officially dub this a trap game, but, you know, be wary. The Northwestern game, a week after traveling to Minnesota and the week before Iowa (and then Ohio State the next week), this could very well be one to watch

*You know, despite the fact that every Lloyd loss seemed like the "you shouldn't have lost to that team" variety"...the man still compiled a .753 winning percentage. Or, in Michigan Man parlance: UNACCEPTABLE.

ACC Coastal Preview: Rise and Fall

Already blabbered about: SEC West, SEC East

I took a look at college football's overlord, the SEC West, and the also impressive but not quite overlord-y/more Darth Vader-esque right-hand man that is the SEC East last week. This offseason preview effort in the weeks leading up to fall camp that isn't a complete waste of time that nobody will read no not at all now shifts its focus to the nebulous yet mostly static world of the ACC.

As you probably know, the conference's very existence has come under fire this offseason. With the New World Order that is the much clamored for by bloggers college football playoff coming into play, John Swofford had to make some sort of moves to keep the conference afloat as the flotsam and jetsam of college football shifted conferences with alacrity. This was an especially urgent situation, as various college football folks, in lieu of all the playoff debates, built up the viability and/or necessity of the eventual existence of four superconferences to rule them all. With the Big Ten, Pac 12, and SEC being stable, intact, and ready for the new college football order (and the Big 12 having seemingly survived the departures of Texas A&M and Missouri by adding WVU and TCU), the ACC was in a precarious position: it was perhaps just a step or two away from potential irrelevance.

The ACC added traditional basketball powers Syracuse and Pitt last fall, but they won't be joining the fray until 2013. For now, the ACC is still a player, as the BCS still has two more years to go before it is finally put down forever. However, after that point, things become much murkier for the ACC.

More importantly, for all the criticism that the B1G gets for not performing at the BCS level and not producing teams that can compete for and win a national championship, the ACC has been much, much worse. After the Virginia Tech and Clemson losses this past bowl season, the ACC dropped to 2-13 in BCS games. For some perspective, if you count Ohio State's vacated Sugar Bowl victory against Arkansas, the B1G is 12-13 in BCS games, a record which hardly seems so bad when juxtaposed with the ACC's mark. With Miami and FSU not being what they once were, Virginia Tech has carried the banner for the ACC. As a fan of college football, I really enjoy watching the Hokies play (the Sugar Bowl only increased this appreciation), but they have consistently been just a cut or two below the quality of a true national contender.

Probably not about to be sacked due to being, you know, not that much smaller than RVB,  A STRONG SIDE DEFENSIVE END. 

Monday, July 30, 2012

Way Too Early Expectations-o-Meter: Matt Vogrich

People I've already talked about: Tim Hardaway Jr., Jordan Morgan

Today we shift back to the back court, to the offensively one-dimensional yet sneakily grit-tastic Matt Vogrich, the pride of Lake Forest, IL (sorry Tommy Rees).

NB: I didn't think of this until now, but I'm probably just going to do these previews for guys that are returning from last year. Of course, the 2012 class will be major contributors, especially given the turnover that Michigan has had (losing Novak and Douglass to graduation and also losing Smotrycz, Brundidge, and Christian to more playing time elsewhere). With that said, a "preview" post for Mitch McGary et al would just end up being a useless collection of Rivals/Scout links and pointless highlight videos. There's no point in wasting your time on redundancies like that so let's just keep talking about players we are already familiar with and can speak out with some level of authority.

GRIT. 

Career To Date 
I feel like I say this all the time, but man I cannot believe Matt Vogrich is a senior. Actually, I'm fairly certain that I say this every time I talk about a senior player in any of the Michigan sports I follow closely: once you find yourself saying this on the reg, you have proof positive that you are getting old. As we all know, time speeds along faster and faster the older you get, which I guess is a good thing if you're trying to get through the horrid thing we call The Offseason (that's right, it merits capitalization).

To be honest, Vogrich's recruitment at this point is a vague thing to me, so I checked his Rivals profile and was somewhat surprised to see some of the schools on his offer list. He was a generic 3-star, the type of 3-point gunner that John Beilein craves like plants crave Brawndo. It's science. Other than Michigan, Vogrich received offers from basketball names like Notre Dame, Wake Forest, Baylor, Georgia Tech, and Stanford, among several other lower level offers. So, it's not like he was just some guy like Zack Novak, whose second best offer after Michigan came from Valparaiso.

As a high schooler, Vogrich averaged 16.7 points and 6.5 rebounds per game, which is also somewhat surprising given the fact that his offensive game at the college level hasn't materialized much at all yet thus far. Obviously, he came in with the hype of a deadly shooter from outside, but you don't average those numbers without being able to do a little more than shoot the three. Of course, high school is a different game: even the college spot up shooter can do some things on the bounce.

As a freshman, Vogrich played only sparingly, averaging 5.5 minutes per game. During the 2009-10 season, however, he did shoot 39% from beyond the arc, lending credence to the notion that he could in fact be the Mike Gansey-esque gunner specialist that Beilein had been searching for. In 2010-11, Vogrich nearly tripled his minutes, averaging 14 per game while also shooting 39% from 3 yet again. He even upped his percentage from the field overall, going from 40.5% to 42.9% from his freshman to his sophomore year.

We knew that Vogrich would be coming off the bench likely throughout his entire career, so expectations at that juncture--after his sophomore year, that is--were fairly reasonable. He would come off the bench and take a few shots, hit a couple threes, and contribute some general grit. He displayed a surprising ability to pick up rebounds despite only being 6'4'' and not much of an athlete, a facet of his game which inspired me to dub him Diet Novak last season.

Then the 2011-12 season happened, leaving us with some questions about what to reasonably expect out of Matt Vogrich.


Last Year 
In light of his 3-point shooting percentages during his first two seasons in Ann Arbor, it would not be unreasonable to posit that his performance from 3 last season was somewhat of an anomaly. Vogrich's percentage took a nosedive, dipping all the way down to 30%, a number which would be below average for a guy who is not a 3-point specialist, let alone for a guy who ostensibly is one.

With that said, his minutes also took a bit of a nosedive, going from the aforementioned 14 per game to 10.7 per last season. It might seem like an insignificant difference, but for a guy like Vogrich, this sort of decline in deployment means the world. It goes without saying that a guy whose offensive game depends almost entirely on the 3 will suffer when he doesn't see the floor a much.

As a Chicago Bulls fan, I saw the same sort of thing play out with a much better 3-point shooter in Kyle Korver. Korver, despite shooting an excellent 43.5% last season, often had off nights. Given the Bulls' prowess on the offensive glass, I distinctly remember several possessions during which Korver would clank a 3, only to get a second chance after an offensive rebound only to clank another one. Korver was also a defensive liability, so when the 3s didn't fall, his presence on the court became a net negative. This, in short, is the plight of the 3-point specialist. When the so called "rhythm" that commentators allude to so often isn't there--a notion which is generally directly correlated to playing time--the specialist becomes someone that you don't want on the court. It essentially becomes a situation where you are playing 4 on 5 when that person is on the floor.

The same could be said for Vogrich last season. We have already seen him shoot the 3 in a way that would make Rick James from Dave Chappelle's E True Hollywood Story sketch blush. However, in limited minutes last season, he would often get on the floor, miss his only one or two threes, and that would be it.


Things That Were Good 
Of course, things weren't all bad for Vogrich last season. Against Arkansas-Pine Bluff, he dropped 11 points on 4-7 shooting (3-5 from 3). In only 11 minutes at Nebraska, he scored 9 points on 3-4 shooting from beyond the arc, a game which could have potentially been close if did not pitch in in the way that he did.

In a big home win against Illinois, Vogrich put up 8 points on 3-3 shooting (2-2 from 3); Michigan won that game by 9, FWIW.

In Michigan's second thrilling OT victory against Northwestern, Vogrich put up 9 points on 3-6 from 3, an obviously important game for him, played less than an hour away from his hometown of Lake Forest. He hit two big threes in the early going to held build Michigan's lead (which was of course squandered by halftime), and then hit a third to put Michigan up by 1 with just under 9 minutes to go. It's easy to forget such contribution on a team headlined by guys like Tim Hardaway Jr. and Trey Burke, but these subtle contributions are often the difference between winning and losing in close conference tilts.


Things That Were Bad 
This section will probably be mostly redundant, but Vogrich failed to make an impact in several Michigan losses. At Iowa, Vogrich went 0-1 from 3 in 18 minutes, which can partly be attributed to the nature of that performance for the team as a whole, particularly the offense's propensity to break down if Trey Burke isn't functioning at peak levels or if the pick and roll is being stonewalled.

Otherwise, just scan his game log for yourself: it's littered with 0-2s from 3, which unfortunately was the standard Vogrich stat line last season. I get the feeling that I'm being almost unfairly negative here, so, to reiterate: it's very difficult for a player like Vogrich to make a difference with consistency when he's only putting up 2 shots, at most, on any given night.

The question becomes: what do you do about it? I'm not sure that Vogrich is an integral cog to the point that he should be asked to "keep shooting", as is often told to 3-point specialists when they are struggling. If he doesn't hit one of his first 2 or 3 shots, it's very difficult to justify that sort of advice, as much as I or any other Michigan fan would love to see him become that 3-point shooter that we all want him to be.

Maybe things will change this season, but Vogrich does not strike me as a guy like Novak or Douglass, players who were predominantly 3-point spot up guys for their first three seasons before the desert bloomed last season when they displayed an ability to make a difference on the bounce and in the mid-range game.

If Vogrich Was A Literary Figure 


Harper Lee. Kind of a one-hit wonder. His ability to write To Kill A Mockingbird shoot the three early on in his career inspired visions of greatness in many, visions which only gave way to a not so gradual fade into obscurity. Is he, like Harper Lee post-TKAM, done writing shooting the three at the level he once did?


Things That Would Be Prettyyyy Prettyyyy Prettyyyy Good

  • Justify more minutes. As I mentioned, pure minutes played is a big issue for a guy like Vogrich. Getting on the floor more often--for instance, something in the neighborhood of the 14 minutes per game that he logged in 2010-11--necessitates doing other things other than 3-point shooting. 
  • GRIT. This has been a positive in Vogrich's game that has nothing to do with outside shooting. He hasn't exactly racked up eye-popping rebounding numbers, but I've found myself fairly surprised with his ability to pull down the occasional offensive board or two despite his obvious physical limitations. This is one of those aforementioned "other things" that Vogrich can do to get more minutes and, consequently, have more of a chance to get in a rhythm. Like major league hitters, 3-point specialists are creatures of habit and repetition. 
  • Yeah, 3-point shooting. For the millionth time, Vogrich needs to make good on his few attempts per game. This again is a nod to the point I made about Jordan Morgan finishing around the basket and the Ray Ratto "just win the game" reference. I'm not sure that there was anything explicitly off with his mechanics, footwork, etc. He just needs to make them when he gets the chance, which is unfortunately a difficult task given his overall lack of usage and his ancillary role on this iteration of Michigan basketball. 


OFFICIAL EXPECTATIONS FOR SOMETHING THAT'S FOUR MONTHS AWAY 
FROM STARTING 
Michigan will likely have a team capable of winning the conference whether or not Vogrich returns to the form that he showed during his first two seasons. With that said, having a guy that shoots 40% from three, despite being very low usage, would be an incredible boon for a team that no longer has Zack Novak and Stu Douglass to rely on from outside, in addition to THJ being decidedly erratic from outside and Trey being approximately adequate from there as well. Luckily, Michigan does have reputed 3-point gunner Nik Stauskas coming in, but in a system like Beilein's--and today's college basketball world, generally--you can never have too much quality 3-point shooting.

I'm having a hard time getting a handle on what to expect from Vogrich this season. With Stauskas figuring to be a major component of this team, Vogrich's 3-point ability might be somewhat marginalized. Similarly, with THJ moving to the two (although I have always been somewhat skeptical of the rigidity of these number/position designations), minutes may be hard to come by in any greater number than they were last season.

Regardless, I think that Vogrich will prove that last season was somewhat of an outlier. He is a good shooter, period, and I'm confident that if he was playing for another team where minutes were more available, he would be able to show that on a more consistent basis. I think that Vogrich will see the court a little more than last season, and his percentage will climb back up to respectability. His 30% mark last season will be proven to simply be a convergence of bad luck and lack of run...I think somewhere in the range of 34-36% is a reasonable expectation for Vogrich in 2012-13.

Friday, July 27, 2012

Shameless Self-Promotion Time

Only one item of self-promotion this week:
  • I wrote a few words about Michael Schofield, he of the relocation from LG to RT. Strangely enough, he has morphed into, by my reckoning, Michigan's second best offensive lineman after starting last season as Michigan's 6th man. 
----
Elsewhere: 
  • The above is exactly what you expect it to be: tremendous. SYNCHRONIZED SMUGNESS!
  • I remember being in a Nike store in NYC one time and seeing one of those shirts with various swaggy phrases emblazoned on the front. One of said shirts read "Lazy But Talented." I tried to figure who in the world would buy such a shirt. New Chicago Bulls signee Marco Belinelli would buy such a shirt (see the comments). 
  • Lake The Posts on Northwestern's new look from Under Armour. It's kind of mystifying how these sorts of posts often yield wayyyy more comments than posts about actual football, but that just goes to show you...actually, I don't really know what that shows you. People are weird? You probably already knew that, though. 
  • BREAKING: Devin Gardner will play wide receiver this year, Joe Schad confirms. Okay, not breaking (and not Joe Schad, although it could be, couldn't it?), obviously, but it's the first time that Hoke has referenced it directly as opposed to going wellllllll or engaging in MC Escher-esque run on sentences that never really begin or end but just kind of feed into each other into perpetuity and before you know it the interview is over and nothing has really been said at all. So, yeah, Hoke said it. 

Wednesday, July 25, 2012

SEC East Preview: All Quiet on the Eastern Front

After taking a look at the SEC West on Monday, it's time to take on the other half of the conference.

Prologue
The SEC East has had a bit of a rough go of it as far as its top powers go the last few seasons. After Tim Tebow's Florida team took two national titles in three years (well, the 2006 team wasn't "Tebow's team", obviously), things started to go downhill after 2009, when Tebow's Gators fell to Alabama in the SEC title game. If I was ESPN, I would probably attempt to prove a causal relationship between Tebow's graduation and the SEC East's decline thereafter, and I would engage you in a debate ring constructed completely from circular logic, moronic statements, and needless shouting.

Luckily, I am not ESPN, so I'll take about things that actually matter, like football and stuff. The Tennessee Volunteers under Phil Fulmer were kind of Michigan's SEC doppleganger for years: a school depending largely on out-of-state talent, long and storied traditions, and a conservative coach with a national title to his name but also the tendency to "underachieve" from time to time (in the minds of completely rational and not at all overly demanding fans). The Volunteers eventually had to cut ties with Fulmer after a 5-7 2008 year...then Pandemonium truly broke lose in Knoxville. Lane Kiffin happened. I say that he "happened" because it was like his tenure was just one really long second; he was there for a year, hanging out in Tennessee's front lawn at 11 p.m. before deciding to ding dong ditch and run back to California. Enter Derek Dooley, who in three seasons at Louisiana Tech amassed a 17-20 record.

Thus far, things at UT haven't gone much better. Dooley has gone 6-7 and 5-7 in his first two years, resulting in the expected "AHHH NEPOTISM IS STUPID AND TERRIBLE" and "AHHH HOT SEAT" type sentiments. Tennessee's football program is definitively stuck in a RR-esque quagmire, one that they may not get out of unless Dooley is let go. Either way, this appears to be a make or break year for Dooley: if the Price Is Right Wheel of College Coaches' Fate lands on a number that puts them over a dollar, Dooley is gone and UT will be searching for a new HC once again.

One of the SECE's other traditional powers, Florida, has fallen on some hard times as well. After a mediocre post-Tebow year in 2010 and health issues, Urban Meyer stepped down, leading to the hiring of Will Muschamp. Muschamp had led some tremendous defenses at both Auburn (including that 2004 14-0 team) and Texas under Mack Brown, so a HC job was coming his way eventually. It was by all accounts a good hire, but it's still unclear if the dreaded college coaching Peter Principle will apply. Last season was similarly mediocre, as the Gators struggled to put points on the board despite having a decided schematic advantage (which can now be found in a Lawrence, KS near you!). Still, he's only had one year in Gainseville, and the Gators are sure to improve upon their 7-6 mark last season.

The last of the East's name brands, Georgia, has also fallen on some relatively tough times. After starting with a preseason #1 ranking in 2008, UGA ended with a disappointing 10-3 mark. The next two years, UGA went 8-5 and 6-7, the latter season ending in a bowl loss to Central Florida. Keeping this in mind, UGA's 0-2 start to last season--including a loss to Boise State in ATL and then against South Carolina--really turned up the heat on Richt (in my mind, extremely unfairly, by the way). On the bright side, the Dawgs rattled off 10 straight wins before losing to LSU in the SEC title game and Michigan State in the Outback Bowl. Georgia brings back a talented team, particularly on defense, and a top notch QB in Aaron Murray. Georgia is set up well for another division title.

Otherwise, South Carolina has secretly built itself up into one of the more underrated teams in the country. After 5 years of 6-8 wins, the Gamecocks won 9 in 2010 (including a trip to ATL for the SEC title game) and an 11-2 year last season, ending in a thumping of Nebraska and an end of season top 10 ranking. Outside of LSU and Alabama, there are few teams playing better defense than South Carolina these days.

Kentucky is still Kentucky, proven by the fact that Joker Phillips seemed to talk about basketball just as much as he did during football during his SEC Media Day appearance. Vanderbilt is also still Vanderbilt, but now second-year HC James Franklin has quickly made a fan out of me. Expecting regular bowl appearances from Vandy might be unrealistic, but if anyone is going to do it, Franklin seems to be the man for the job.

Lastly, we have newcomer Missouri, who, like Texas A&M, will stick out like an elephant at a crocodile cocktail party.

Marcus Lattimore (via Saturday Down South