Fresh off an overtime win in Evanston that was two parts ugly and one part dogged resilience, the Michigan Wolverines hit the road again, this time for the record-setting cold of Iowa City, looking for their first consecutive road wins in the Brady Hoke era.
The Hawkeyes last took the field on Nov. 9, when they dispatched the Purdue Boilermakers with ease at Ross-Ade Stadium, 38-14, their best performance since pasting the Gophers at TCF Bank Stadium back in September.
The Wolverines came into Saturday a 6-point underdog against the 6-4 (3-3) Hawkeyes. In previous years, Michigan fans might have looked at a line like that with significant skepticism, but this is not like any other season. For the Wolverines to move to 8-3 heading into The Game, anything less than their best game would likely result in a loss. Michigan's much-discussed road woes did not bode well for them at Kinnick Stadium, a place they had not won since their overtime victory there in 2005.
On Iowa's first offensive play of the game, QB Jake Rudock rolled to his right, where he was met by Jake Ryan. Ryan walloped the sophomore quarterback as he released, leading to a fluttering ball that Brennen Beyer snagged and took to the end zone untouched, giving Michigan an early 7-0 lead.
The Hawkeyes missed a field goal on their second drive, but started their third with good field position at the Michigan 45 following Michigan's second three and out in as many drives. Iowa drove down to the end zone in seven plays, capped by a 5-yard touchdown pass to a diving CJ Fiedorowicz.
The game continued on like a record scratching every time Michigan got the ball. The offense went three-and-out again, and Matt Wile's short punt again allowed the Hawkeyes to start in Michigan territory. This time, the defense held when Iowa elected to go for it on 4th & 5.
Later, after Kevonte Martin-Manley backtracked on a punt return, getting himself hogtied at the Iowa 3, Blake Countess reeled in the Michigan defense's second interception of the first half.
The Wolverines found themselves with a 2nd & goal from the Iowa 2-yard line. Gardner play action faked and rolled back to his right. He carried the ball about as far as he could, seemingly with the intent to run it in or take the loss, before finding a wide open A.J. Williams in the end zone with an unorthodox flip pass. The touchdown was Williams' first career reception, and it came at a great time for a Michigan offense that struggled mightily in the first half.
The offense finally woke up on its final drive of the first half. Starting from the Iowa 47, a couple timely completions through the air and some nifty running by Gardner moved Michigan down to the Iowa 4. On third & goal from the 9 --after a 5-yard penalty on Kyle Kalis-- Gardner launched a strike to an open Jeremy Gallon a yard deep in the end zone, giving Michigan a 21-7 lead.
The Wolverines lapsed in kickoff coverage, however, allowing a 60-yard return that eventually yielded a field goal opportunity. Iowa's field goal struggles continued, however, as the holder couldn't put the ball down cleanly, not even allowing Mike Meyer a shot to kick it. Michigan went into the half up 21-7 despite having been outgained 170-113.
The turnover margin (+3 for Michigan) was the difference in the first half; for Michigan to hold on, they would have to avoid the swinging pendulum of regression in the second act.
Michigan headed to Evanston looking to avoid its first 3-game losing streak during the Brady Hoke era. Meanwhile, Northwestern looked to snap its calamitous 5-game losing streak, both for pride's sake and the opportunity to get one win closer to bowl eligibility (with two more remaining on the schedule).
Things started off well for the Wolverines on offense, powering down the field with Derrick Green, De'Veon Smith and some quick passing for a 12-play, 63-yard field goal drive. Unfortunately for the Wolverines, that's about where the first half offensive success ended.
Northwestern answered with a long field goal drive of its own to tie it, and added another one at the end of the first half to go up 6-3.
Michigan was not exactly impressive on the ground, but they were in the black this time, rushing for 40 yards in the first half; baby steps, as they say.
Once again, the Wolverine defense performed admirably as the offense floundered, giving up six first half points and just 2.8 yards per carry.
Michigan was fortunate to enter the half down just 6-3, as Devin Gardner tossed several passes that were nearly intercepted, with at least one of them looking like good bets to be returned for six.
As has typically been the case, the Wolverines were completely helpless on third and long situations. For whatever reason, Michigan seemed to go away from Green and Smith in the second quarter despite having success with them early in the game.
The Michigan defense bent to start the second half but did not break, eventually forcing a punt after a well-defended third down option play. Now, it was Al Borges's turn to dial up the offensive equivalent of a timely blitz, with about 27 minutes between Michigan and a 6-4 record.
As usual, my recap of Saturday's proceedings went up at Maize n Brew this morning. Once again, the story of the day was Michigan's inability to keep Devin Gardner upright, he took seven sacks on Saturday after taking nine in East Lansing.
With trips to Evanston and Iowa City coming up, if Michigan's previous ineptitude on the road continues, the Wolverines could very well be looking at a 6-6 regular season and a bowl game in Detroit.
Little late linking this today, but my recap of the Indiana shootout--note to self: if I ever start an indie country band, call it "The Indiana Shootout"--went up at Maize n Brew this morning.
Overall, the tackling was a concern but I'm not sure the defensive issues in this one should be anything to seriously worry about the rest of the way. Indiana will continue to be a special case in this way as long as Kevin Wilson is in Bloomington, I'm afraid.
Offensively, Michigan destroyed a bad Indiana defense, but did it better than any of Indiana's previous opponents, so that's something if you're looking for some relativistic comfort.
In any case, the bye week is once again coming at a good time. Devin Gardner took some big hits on Saturday, and he'll have a chance to heal up before Michigan attempts to solve Michigan State's monstrous defense. That will be a tall order, but Al Borges and Co. will have an extra week to figure out a plan for that.
Yeah, this one should have been a noon game. Back in the day (i.e. the early 2000s), this would have been a comfortable Michigan rout on ESPN Plus. This game might end up that way, but the Wolverines are up just 28-17 heading into the half.
Michigan was nowhere near ready to play defense on IU's long touchdown score to Cody Latimer. In back-to-back weeks, Michigan's defense hasn't exactly responded too well to any sort of uptick in tempo.
Running from the shotgun on Michigan's first touchdown drive was a sight for sore eyes. The drive went 56 yards in 5 plays, with Toussaint rushing for half of those yards.
Before anyone extrapolates wildly, it should be noted that Indiana's defense is atrocious.
Jeremy Gallon took what was basically a bubble screen 70 yards, setting up Michigan's second score. Again, IU is very bad defensively, but Michigan is much more likely to find success when it spreads people out.
On a 1st & 10 late in the first, Gardner had all day to throw. Unfortunately, he threw it a half second too late, and Jeremy Jackson was not able to reel the ball in on the right sideline.
Derrick Green showed a nice burst on seven yard carry that closed out the first quarter. To start the second, he showed some nice feet, moving left and cutting niftily back to his right to pick up seven more.
On more than one occasion, Gardner didn't handle IU pressure too smoothly, especially the play in the second quarter when he was slow to get up.
IU's two scoring drives lasted just 1:03 and 1:21.
Yes, that should have been a holding call on A.J. Williams. You win some you lose some.
Jeremy Gallon's first half stats: 8 receptions, 170 yards, 1 TD.
Given the Jekyll and Hyde nature of the Indiana football team--and the fact that I covered some of the personnel and basic statistics yesterday--this post will be a little shorter than usual. Anyway, on with the points:
Devin Gardner vs. mistakes. Again, insert bit about this continuing to be a point of concern for the rest of the season. Michigan is halfway through its season and Gardner has been turnover-free in just one game, which was in part due to the nature of the game and the conservatism of the gameplan.
Against a team with a high-octane offense like Indiana, turnovers are death, especially because the Hoosiers aren't very good defensively on their own. If the Hoosiers force turnovers of the "make plays" variety, there's not much to be done. However, Gardner cannot gift wrap them points via turnover, i.e. Penn State's first two touchdown scores set up by Gardner interceptions.
Running power vs. pulling the plug. Any discussion of offensive playcalling, in my mind, starts with the acknowledgement that Al Borges knows infinitely more about offensive football than I or anyone else typing away on the Internet.
With that said, there is a basic point that anyone can glean from last Saturday's performance: when is enough enough? Now, it must be noted that a number of Michigan's obvious power runs came on the clock-killing drive at the end of regulation, so perhaps the 27 carries for 27 yards thing is being perceived slightly more harshly than it should be (of course, it was still very bad any way you slice it). You would think that a Michigan team could run for at least one yard on even the most obvious of running situations (e.g. clock-killing drives), but that is no the case for this iteration of Michigan football.
If you're looking for a little early litmus test for the Michigan State game, consider this: the Spartans had two 90+ yard rushers against the Hoosiers last Saturday. Jeremy Langford had 109 yards on 23 carries and three touchdowns, while Delton Williams had 92 yards on 12 carries.
Big Ten fans gave MSU a lot of flak for its early offensive ineptitude, but the Spartans ran the ball with ease against a bad IU defense (i.e. an expected outcome for a divisional contender). I admit that this is incredibly reductive thinking, but with MSU on the schedule two weeks from tomorrow, if Michigan doesn't come close to matching the aforementioned rushing output tomorrow, concern levels will be high.
Ordinarily, you'd like to see at least 5.0 YPC against Indiana. This year, I think most people would accept three yards a pop, which of course is a sign of the times. Either way, it's now or never: if Michigan can't get the ground game going against Indiana, then the UConn game will go down as Michigan's best non-CMU rushing performance of the season.
Michigan defense vs. substitutions. Kevin Wilson's offense is not quote the second coming of the 2008 Oklahoma Sooners just yet, but it's absolutely a dangerous offense. Although the Hoosiers certainly have good skill position talent, tempo is the vehicle by which IU finds its success.
Against Penn State, Michigan was seemingly unprepared to handle the Nittany Lions' intermittent usage of an up-tempo, no huddle offense. Well, that's pretty much going to be the whole game. If the Michigan defense can avoid giving up its usual first possession long drive, that would be a major early boost of confidence.
Indiana's offense is not invincible, and while Michigan's defense is not as good as Michigan State's, the Wolverines do have the players to disrupt the IU offense to force some punts.
Devin Funchess vs. the IU secondary. Simply put, Funchess should have a monster game. Indiana's linebackers are not impressive, and the secondary is what you'd expect an Indiana secondary to be (although, as I mentioned yesterday, Tim Bennett is somewhat of a playmaker at corner). Funchess should be able to go over the top once again, while Gallon should be
I could be going crazy, but it seems like Michigan's put away the Gallon throwback screen play this season; perhaps that could be because it became gradually less effective last season. Nonetheless, that's a play I could see having some success against IU (think last year's Illinois game).
Michigan OL vs. pass protection. All of the focus is on the run blocking these days, but it's not as if pass protection has been perfect. More often than not, Michigan's best plays have been Gardner making like Second City and improvising as a byproduct of pass rush pressure.
Despite being a bad defense overall, the Hoosiers are surprisingly competent if you look at sacks alone, in which they are ranked 53rd in the nation. That's not exceptional or anything, but they've got the ability to get to the quarterback. Indiana notched three sacks against Mizzou; Georgia managed just one more, four, in their matchup against Gary Pinkel's squad.
However, IU only tallied one sack apiece against Penn State and Michigan State. Nick Mangieri (3.5 sacks) and John Laihinen (3.5 sacks), both defensive ends, are IU's leaders in sacks. Lewan and Schofield should be able to hold down the fort at the ends, but, as always, the question is whether the center can hold, or if mere anarchy will be loosed upon the Michigan backfield.
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Michigan is a 9-10 point favorite depending on where you look. Quite honestly, I have no idea what to expect this week. That is an uncomfortable place to be.
Indiana has some nice weapons on offense; Tevin Coleman is probably the best tailback Michigan has seen thus far. If the linebackers don't fill and/or get blocked or the safeties find themselves daydreaming, Coleman can take it to the house before you can say Petoskey.
I foresee the first half being a real shootout. I don't feel confident that Michigan's defense will be immediately ready to handle IU's pace. Once again, I'll say that if IU's first drive ends with a field goal, that's a victory.
Usually I have some sort of vaguely reasonable rationale for my score predictions, but this week's is just a thread pulled from the yarn ball of immense uncertainty. Score: Michigan 38, Indiana 31.
Since I don't have anything planned for today, I figured I'd take a basic look at some statistics and personnel before writing Friday's general preview.
At quarterback, Nate Sudfeld leads the way for the Hoosiers. Sudfeld is 118/192 on the season (61.5%), with 13 touchdowns and six interceptions. Sudfeld is throwing for 8.35 yards per attempt.
Of IU's three BCS opponents (Missouri, Penn State and Michigan State), Sudfeld had two of his worst performances in there (Mizzou and MSU).
Missouri: 21/39, 229 yards, 1 TD, 3 INTs
MSU: 14/30, 137 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs
Of course, we know what IU did to Penn State, which makes last weekend's Michigan loss even stranger.
PSU: 23/38, 321 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Against the Spartans, IU had some early success, but it wasn't a product of Sudfeld's arm. On the Hoosiers' opening drive, Tevin Coleman took a carry 64 yards to the house on the fourth play of the game. After that, the IU offense didn't have much success until later in the second quarter after recovering an MSU fumble. In fact, it was backup quarterback Tre Roberson who drove the Hoosiers from the MSU 41 to the end zone.
Sudfeld did come back and connect on a 53-yarder to Shane Wynn, part of a 7-play, 72-yard scoring drive on IU's opening possession of the second half.
With that said, against the best defense IU had faced to date (and probably the best defense it will face all season), Roberson got more run than he did against any other opponent, throwing a season high 17 times. What does this mean for Saturday? Well, IU's QB situation continues to be potent but less than settled; I wouldn't be surprised to see Roberson once again featured a good deal, whether Sudfeld struggles or not.
At tailback, Tevin Coleman is a guy with the ability to break a long one at any time. Coleman has amassed 557 yards on 91 carries this season (6.1 YPC).
Ignoring the Indiana State, Navy (which was a loss, by the way) and Bowling Green games and things get less rosy for Coleman. However, he's still broken some long runs against Big Ten foes the last two weeks, including a 64-yard romp against the Spartans last weekend, no small feat. Against PSU, Coleman rushed for 92 yards on 20 carries, which would qualify as just decent against a not spectacular PSU defense if not for his supplementary seven receptions for 55 yards.
Against MSU, however, Coleman did nothing outside of the one long run; he finished with 79 yards on 15 carries. Remove the one long gain and he managed just 15 yards on 14 carries. Of course, that was against Michigan State; Michigan's defense is closer to PSU's level than it is MSU's.
Regardless, Coleman is a big play threat with receiving ability. From my limited viewing, he seems like Bill Belton if Belton didn't have to share the rock with Zach Zwinak.
Backup/once starter Stephen Houston 230 yards on 35 carries; 155 of those yards came against Bowling Green. Houston did not carry the ball a single time last Saturday against the Spartans. At 6'1'' 230 pounds, Houston is the thunder to Coleman's lightning, although he hasn't really done much against any team other than Bowling Green.
At wide receiver, 6'3'' Cody Latimer leads the way with 35 receptions, 544 yards and three touchdowns. Unfortunately for the Michigan secondary, his numbers aren't the product of a breezy opening trio of games. Latimer had two of his three best games against Mizzou and PSU, and although he managed just 58 yards on seven receptions against MSU, he did get in the end zone.
Kofi Hughes is a familiar name here; he has 22 receptions, 316 yards and four touchdowns of his own. Hughes stands at 6'2'', making for a pretty formidable pairing with Latimer.
Tiny slot receiver Shane Wynn has 342 yards on just 18 receptions this season, plus four touchdown scores. He has 53- and 68-yard receptions to his name against MSU and Mizzou, respectively. Michigan will have its hands full covering Latimer and Hughes on the outside and Wynn in the slot. Defensively, the Hoosiers are not very good, as you'd expect. While Indiana put up more points on the Spartans than any other team thus far this season, they also gave up 42 points.
On defense, it’s a bit of a different story. Indiana struggles against the run in particular, allowing 217 yards per game. Not really much better against the pass, so it’s no wonder the 456 yards of total offense it allows ranks 105th nationally. And it’s giving up 32.8 points per game.
MSU, with an offense dormant for much of this season, torched the Hoosiers for 42 points and 473 yards.
Looking for a way to improve? Try getting off the field on third down. Indiana’s foes are converting 44 percent of their third downs and moving the chains at a rate of 25.2 per game, 118th out of 123 FBS teams.
Like most up-tempo spread teams, defense isn't exactly a priority. With that said, even the worst defenses have guys making plays here and there.
For Indiana, that seems to be cornerback Tim Bennett, who, according to that last link, leads the nations in PBUs (14). He is also tied for the team lead in tackles (45) with linebacker David Cooper.
Indiana is tied for 53rd in sacks (12). Backup defensive end John Laihinen leads the way with 3.5 sacks. Nick Mangieri, a starter at defensive end, has 2.5 sacks of his own (and leads the team with 5.5 tackles for loss).
For what it's worth, Mangieri and fellow starting end Ryan Phillis are both listed at 260 pounds, so I'm not sure which one is the SDE and which one is the WDE. It seems like Mangieri is the weak side guy, but I don't know that it matters either way.
If Michigan is going to run power against any Big Ten foe, it has to be against these guys. At defensive tackle, IU does have three 300+ pound players in the two-deep (Alex Todd, Adarius Rayner and Ralphael Green), but that size obviously hasn't helped them much in stopping the run.
Indiana's linebackers are bigger than I imagined they'd be--in fact, they're on average five pounds heavier per guy--but from what I've seen they seem to be your typical, not too athletic or speedy Indiana linebackers. I distinctly remember Kain Colter shaking David Cooper out of his shoes on a zone read play last year, which is actually not that embarrassing because Colter does that to a lot of people.
In any case, Michigan (i.e. Devin Gardner) can run around these guys and Devin Funchess will have a fairly comfortable time going over the top of them.
In the secondary, redshirt senior safety Greg Heban is third on the team in tackles and has a team high two interceptions.
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That's about it for now. The book on Indiana is pretty simple: explosive offense, no defense. However, Michigan's propensity to turn the ball over becomes magnified against a team that can bury you with points like Indiana. Although Indiana was aided by Spartan turnovers, they did put up 28 on them. I'd have to guess they'll put up close to that or slightly more against Michigan.
The Hoosiers have serious talent at the skill positions; they don't have a player of the caliber of Allen Robinson, but the Latimer-Hughes pairing is formidable. Coleman is a big play waiting to happen and the quarterbacks are effective, depending on whichever one is hot that day, or even in a particular quarter.
I'll probably say it again tomorrow, but this is Michigan's most important contest against Indiana in a long time (possibly ever). A loss would be disastrous, a signal of some very difficult times ahead. Michigan's ability to regroup and execute will be tested this Saturday in the Big House.
No. 18 Michigan heads to Happy Valley to take on the Penn State Nittany Lions at Beaver Stadium, where the Wolverines have lost the last two times they've visited; of course, those two visits came during the Rich Rodriguez era.
On the surface, you would think a game against a team that just lost to Indiana by 20 would be a slam dunk, but, once again, I get the feeling that it won't be. I wasn't quite right on my 31-13 prediction for the Minnesota game, but at least I got Minnesota's point total right. Take away that Blake Countess pick six and my prediction was pretty close to spot on, which of course means absolutely nothing.
The oddsmakers have the Wolverines as just a 3-point favorite, a week after Michigan was a 19-point favorite against then 4-1 Minnesota. Will the game be that close? It will if Michigan fails to do a few things with consistency:
Devin Gardner vs. mistakes/road environment. One week of mistake-free football won't erase what happened during the Akron and UConn games. If Michigan is going to coast through this one into the second half with a lead of any size, Gardner cannot gift the Nittany Lions points and/or great field position. Penn State's defense has not been tremendous of late, giving up 34 to a speedy Central Florida team and, of course, 44 to Indiana's up-tempo spread bonanza.
However, Penn State is still 18th in total defense, given that their other three opponents were Syracuse, Eastern Michigan and Kent State. This is not a vintage Penn State defense, but playing at home against Michigan always has a way of motivating Big Ten foes. Gardner has played in the Horseshoe, at Nebraska (as a wide receiver) and saw time at quarterback against Michigan State in 2011, so the environment shouldn't be a complete shock to him.
That said, his ability to get the team on the same page when the crowd turns up the volume will go a long way toward limiting the sorts of basic errors he's made to date. Playing Minnesota at home during homecoming and then playing in Beaver Stadium are like going to the opera and then catching a Metallica concert.
Pass protection vs. PSU pass rush. The Nittany Lions don't have an elite pass rush on paper, but they are tied for 47th in the country in that department with 11 sacks on the season.
On the bright side for the Wolverines, PSU doesn't seem to have a single pass rushing specialist. The Nittany Lion defense has 11 players credited with at least half of a sack; No. 91 Da'Quan Jones and No. 84 Kyle Baublitz are tied for the team lead with two sacks apiece. Both are seniors and both play tackle. Chris Bryant, Graham Glasgow and Kyle Kalis will have a tough task ahead of them, even if PSU's numbers don't show it. If Gardner is getting pressure up the middle, you'll probably see a few big losses on sacks as Gardner scrambles to the edges, or, worse, an interception or two.
On that note, Jones leads Penn State in tackles for loss with 6.5 to date. For a squad historically known for its linebackers, Jones is the defensive player to watch on this PSU defense. Once Michigan recruiting target C.J. Olaniyan is second on the team with 4.5 tackles for loss from the defensive end spot.
Offensively, it's difficult to get much going if your interior OL is getting bull rushed and swim moved with even semi-regularity. Combine that with the road game environment and an early sack or a turnover could send Gardner spiraling back into the dark place he was in against UConn for most of that game.
UCF and Indiana exposed the PSU defense, so it's not as if it will be impossible for the Wolverines to successfully attack this group. However, the defensive line (especially Jones), is active and capable of making plays in the backfield, which Michigan hasn't exactly done a good job of preventing thus far. Also, as sad as it is to say, I don't know if Michigan has the same offensive firepower, speed-wise or pace-wise, as UCF and IU, respectively.
Blake Countess (and safety help) vs. Allen Robinson. Simply put, if Allen Robinson has a game like he had against Indiana last week, Michigan will be in big trouble. As much as Michigan fans might not want to hear it, the gameplan might just have to feature a lot of that soft, Cover 2 shell we've seen much of this season.
Michigan should be able to get into the upper 20s in points. In order for that to be enough, Michigan will have to limit the big plays when the Penn State offense is on the field. Conservative defense is not fun to watch, but it has been effective for Michigan. Hackenberg has thrown just four interceptions in five games, but he is still a freshman. The odds are good he'll give Michigan a pick at some point.
In the meantime, especially in the first half, don't be surprised if Michigan is giving up lots of yardage. You won't have a fun time watching it happen, but as long as those seriously threatening long drives end with field goals or punts once PSU crosses midfield, Michigan will be okay.
Tight end Kyle Carter is a distant second in the receiving department, with 11 receptions for 147 yards. Wide receiver Brandon Felder has 16 receptions for 135 yards of his own. QB Christian Hackenberg has thrown eight touchdown passes to date, five of them going Robinson's way. Sophomore receiver Geno Lewis is the only other receiver with a touchdown score; tailback Bill Belton has the other two.
Like the Joel Stave-Jared Abbrederis connection in Madison, you pretty much know where Hackenberg is going to go with the football. As always, stopping it is easier said than done. But, if Robinson has a merely "good" day as opposed to transcendent, I don't know if Penn State has enough receiving talent to test Michigan's at times leaky non-Countess corners.
The tight ends, Carter included, haven't showed up much on the stat sheet, but Hackenberg will look to them. Big time recruit Adam Breneman has just five receptions for 49 yards to date, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him get a target or two. Coverage up the seams will have to better than it was on scoring plays against Akron and UConn. In general, Michigan did have a little bit of trouble checking Minnesota TE Maxx Williams, which might not mean anything going forward but is something to think about.
Rushing offense vs. PSU run D. Much of the focus is on the quarterbacks, what with Hackenberg showing promise as a freshman and Gardner having his struggles. However, the ground game will be key; this is still the Big Ten, after all.
As far as run-stopping linebackers go, middle linebacker No. 40 Glenn Carson leads PSU with 39 tackles, 3.5 for loss. Mike Hull and Nyeem Wartman have 15 and 14 tackles, respectively. Joe Kerridge vs. Carson will be a battle to watch.
Both teams boast top 20 rushing defenses, with Michigan at No. 9 and Penn State at No. 20. I wouldn't expect either team to have a 100-yard back on Saturday, but that doesn't necessarily matter. If Fitzgerald Toussaint can put together a Minnesota-esque (or, better yet, a UConn-esque) performance, that should be enough to take the playmaking burden off of Gardner's shoulders.
Of course, Michigan will need to block to make that happen. Brian has talked about this at MGoBlog this week, but it remains to be seen whether Michigan's strategy of putting Michael Schofield next to Taylor Lewan--essentially tipping run in the process--can work against teams with a little more defensive oomph than Minnesota has.
I'm not sure if there any counters available with this look, or if Michigan will just try to mash their way to a few yards per play with this look and hope for the best. Either way, Michigan needs probably 70-80 yards from Toussaint for it to be a relatively successful evening on the ground, plus whatever magic Gardner can produce on scrambles and miscellaneous designed runs.
Rushing D vs. PSU rushing O. On the other side, Penn State has had offensive line struggles of its own but the numbers show the Nittany Lions having a trio of capable backs. Zach Zwinak is the feature back, having carried the mail 84 times for 369 yards (4.4 YPC) and eight touchdowns. He has a long of 38 yards; he's not a big play threat, but if Michigan's playing the generally conservative gameplan I expect they will, I wouldn't be surprised if he chips away at the Michigan defense to the tune of 70-80 yards of his own on 15-20 carries.
Bill Belton has a bit more speed to his game (he returns kicks and punts, as well); he's got 284 yards on 43 carries, good for 6.6 yards a pop. His long of 51 came against Eastern Michigan, however, and he was held to just 31 yards on 10 carries against Indiana. Belton is a pass catching threat, though, so the Wolverines will have to be cognizant of him in the flats and on wheel routes.
Sophomore Akeel Lynch has nice numbers too (35 carries, 270 yards, 7.7 YPC), but he didn't play against Syracuse and managed a combined 39 yards on eight carries against UCF and Indiana. That's not bad, but it doesn't seem like he'll be a major part of the gameplan.
In short, with Ondre Pipkins out for the year, Quinton Washington will need to have a big game up front if Michigan is going to prevent Zwinak from eclipsing his season average YPC of 4.4. One thing is for sure: Penn State will run the ball. The Nittany Lions have a run-pass split of 64:36, which accounts for Hackenberg's 55 attempts against Indiana. The PSU offense will likely have to approach equilibrium against Michigan, but with a freshman quarterback and a pair of serviceable backs, Penn State will look to run first before taking its shot downfield to Robinson, especially if Gardner struggles early on.
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Once again, I find myself feeling not incredibly confident about beating a team that just took a pretty brutal loss. Michigan has blown out much better PSU teams in Happy Valley than this one, but this doesn't have the feel of a blowout, let alone a moderately comfortable win.
I expect Michigan to have some first quarter struggles. The Wolverine defense always seems to bend and ultimately break on the first drive of the game; if the Wolverines can keep PSU out of the end zone if that happens again, they'll be in good shape.
Michigan won't have consistent success on the ground, but, this game will be won or lost by the quarterbacks, with the ground games serving as ancillary components.
Michigan probably can't match Indiana's passing output or UCF's balanced offensive attack, but I don't think they have to in order to come away with a win. This game will be close, but I'm going to roll with the idea that Gardner's turnover-free performance against the Gophers was the turning over of a new leaf. Score: Michigan 28, Penn State 23.
After spending the bye week focusing on the rest of the Big Ten (and simultaneously trying not to think about the Akron and UConn games), Michigan will returns to the Big House this Saturday for its Big Ten opener (and Homecoming).
The Gophers, on the other hand, ran through their weak nonconference schedule with ease, only to drop its own conference opener against Iowa last week in disappointing fashion. In the 23-7 loss at TCF Bank Stadium, the Gophers rushed for just 30 yards on 27 carries (40 yards on 18 if you remove QB Philip Nelson's numbers). For a Minnesota squad without much serious receiving talent, if you shut down the ground game, you're in business. After the Gophers ran a pass-heavy spread-type offense for some time, a return to this sort of ground-based football seems appropriate to me.
So, what will be the key matchups heading into this one, as the Wolverines look to cover what seems to be a generous 19-point spread? Once again, the same things will likely continue to pop up all season: Chris Bryant vs. jumping into the starting lineup. This will be Bryant's first meaningful game action, which would be encouraging under ordinary circumstances. As it stands, Bryant is getting the start out of necessity, what with Jack Miller struggling at center, forcing a Graham Glasgow move to that spot so Bryant can slide in at left guard. How Glasgow adapts to the center position is another story entirely, but, at minimum, Bryant should bring quite a bit more run-blocking oomph at the guard spot (and it's not as if Glasgow was particularly bad at LG anyway). Assuming Bryant is truly healthy and ready to play, if he can give Michigan a boost this week, perhaps the Michigan ground game will start to trend upward at just the right time. Michigan front seven vs. Minnesota ground game. Simply put, whether it's Philip Nelson or Mitch Leidner in the game, this will be a classic Big Ten "stop the run" game, written without a hint of snark. It's difficult to get a feel for what Leidner can really do in the passing game, given that he's only played against Western Illinois and San Jose State (12-for-20, 176 yards, 60%, 0 TDs, 0 INTs). Nelson, on the other hand, has struggled, completing just 50.8% of his passes and throwing four interceptions to just two touchdowns. For all of the consternation about the UConn game, the Wolverine defense actually held the Huskies passing game in check (Chandler Whitmer passed for just 5.0 yards per attempt); Greg Mattison's side of the ball will need another performance like that if the Wolverines plan on its first comfortable victory since the Central Michigan game.
At tailback, Donnell Kirkwood has been limited by an ankle injury since the opener, and carried the ball just three times for six yards against Iowa. Kirkwood had a decent 2012 season; if healthy, he could be a challenge, but not unless the quarterbacks offer any sort of relief. If Kirkwood can't go, Rodrick Williams Jr. (5.8 YPC) and David Cobb (5.8 YPC) will carry the mail. Cobb is 5'11 225, whereas Williams Jr. is 5'11 235. In short, expect several Desmond Morgan thumpacolypses.
Lastly, whether Nelson or Leidner (or both) enter the game, both will carry the ball quite a bit themselves. In five games, the two signal carries have carried it 42 and 46 times, respectively.
Devin Gardner vs. mistakes. This will continue to be a point of concern for the rest of the season. Without entering the discourse of what his confidence level must be like after Akron and UConn (and even the Notre Dame pick six if you'd like to include that), Gardner must have a clean, relatively mistake-free game. Despite having explosive DT Ra'Shede Hageman, the Gophers are just 108th in sacks, with six in five games. Gardner will have time, but time has often been Gardner's enemy. As spectacular as Gardner's touchdown strike to Drew Dileo was last season against Minnesota, I'll take some conservative dinking and dunking before any wild, desultory scrambling. At the same time, that is who Gardner is as a quarterback, and asking him not to improvise is like trying to bottle up the wind.
Iowa's Jake Rudock went 15-for-25 for 218 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Quite honestly, this would be an encouraging line for Gardner, especially if he connects on a big play or two like Rudock did.
Hageman vs. non-Lewan offensive linemen. Hageman is a defensive tackle but is a type who will probably do some moving around on the line. With that said, I wouldn't be surprised to see him lined up on the edges, although I'd bet not against Lewan. So, whether it's Schofield, Kalis, Glasgow or Bryant, if Michigan is going to avoid another parade of 2-yard losses, they must account for Hageman's quickness. He hasn't had an especially dominant season to date, with only one sack to his name, but he is tied for the team lead in tackles for loss (5.5). Given the smack talk that has gone on this week, Hageman will be looking to prove himself and up his stock against a name brand like Michigan (if you're into that line of thinking). I usually dismiss that sort of thing, but, after all, these players are people, not automatons derived from meticulous calculus.
Jehu Chesson vs. incorporation into the offense. There is a minor undercard of a story for this week, but Chesson's incremental incorporation into the swing of things should hopefully take another step forward this Saturday. With all due respect to Jeremy Jackson and Joe Reynolds, Michigan is much better served with Chesson on the field. He took a leap forward in that department against UConn, but wasn't quite able to make those plays downfield. The Gophers gave up a couple of big plays against Iowa, including a 74-yarder to Damond Powell. This Saturday will be another opportunity to build up some trust with the coaches--he's already proven himself as a surprisingly effective blocker--as the Wolverines start to approach the challenging part of the schedule.
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Other than that, Michigan is a better football team, and the Iowa game last week shed light on the weaknesses of this Minnesota squad. If Philip Nelson is tearing Michigan up through the air--and I feel like I've said this thirty times this season already--then run for cover.
Minnesota's only somewhat productive receiver is the 6'2'' 187-pound senior Derrick Engel, and even he has just 12 grabs thus far (160 yards, 1 touchdown). Assuming Michigan locks down on him like they should, I don't know where the receiving production will come from for Minnesota.
Roll your eyes if you must, but if Michigan runs the ball with any success and stops the run, then they do have a pretty good chance to cover that spread. On the heels of the Gophers' 16-point loss at home against Iowa, maybe I'm being a bit pessimistic, but I need to see Michigan put it together for a whole game against an overmatched opponent before I can start to breathe easy again.
It's a bit strange to think that Gardner's debut came against Minnesota last season, and that a year later against that same team, there are more questions than answers regarding his play. Saturday will provide the first of many opportunities to beat back the ghosts of Akron and UConn.
I think Michigan looks much better than it did against either of those teams, but isn't quite what it was against Notre Dame. Score: Michigan 31, Minnesota 13.
No matter how old we get, and how hard we try to convince ourselves that sports are just a game, it just isn't so.
I've spent the last few years disassociating myself from things like recruiting coverage, at first because I found myself increasingly irked by the nature of it all; after all, I'm now older than the oldest Michigan football player on the roster. But, on a more practical level, grad school this past year has cut into my time by a significant amount, so that I almost didn't have a choice to pay attention or not.
With school and the job hunt occupying my mind (and the Chicago Blackhawks' run to another Stanley Cup), this was an oddly detached offseason for me. In years past, an injury to a player like Jake Ryan would have sent me into a frenzy of panic. This time around, not so much. Maybe the "he'll be ready by October" prognosis lessened the blow, but I think a growing acceptance of entropy has more to do with it.
Other than using the occasional one-sentence paragraph (I know, I know), the best thing Medill has taught me over the past year is this: Get to the point.
I haven't been very good at that over the years. For anyone that has read this blog, I have a tendency to, shall we say, expound a bit too much. I mean, this is just football, right? Should I really be writing 2,000 words or more about people I've never met?
I don't know anymore. Maybe that's okay, maybe it isn't. In any case, it's something I think about now that I didn't think about before. I don't know if it can be described as a creeping cynicism about the state of things--the issue of pay-for-play, the NCAA's nonsensical defense of a student-athlete model that is for the most part a serious oddity, the increasingly inescapable sleeper hold of money--but things aren't as they once were in many respects. This is not a bad thing; it is always good to question things. Say what you will about the journalism industry today, but if there is one trait we can all agree upon as the foundation of good journalism (or even good thinking, generally), it is the existential need to question anything and everything.
For the first time in a while, this offseason came and went without much consternation from me. The month of August, as always, is a time warp in and of itself, with days becoming weeks and weeks becoming years...but everything before that
I guess I'm not doing a very good job of getting to the point. Perhaps that is because I don't know what the point really is. I've sat around looking at the schedule, calculating satisfying scenarios in my head: 10-2 would be great, but what if both losses came to Michigan State and Ohio State? What about 9-3, with wins against the aforementioned foes and losses against, say, Notre Dame, Penn State and Northwestern (or Nebraska)? Would that be any better?
I don't know, but thinking about this sort of thing inevitably boomerangs back to one basic thought, one that I've expressed in some form here countless times: college football (and any sport, really), are about people and moments. Years from now, Michigan's 8-5 season will be but a vague memory, a historical footnote. But, Roy Roundtree's catch against Northwestern, Devin Gardner's pyrotechnics against Minnesota and Iowa, Denard Robinson's touchdown run at the Horseshoe...these are moments that will forever live on.
As a 24-year-old pseudo-adult, that's really all I find worth grabbing hold of in this game. The outcome is beyond our control, of course, but the curation of those outcomes is not.
Will Fitzgerald Toussaint bounce back to his 2011 form? I don't know, but I'll enjoy watching him try.
Will Devin Gardner live up to the offseason hype and build upon his 2012 run as the starter? I don't know, but I'll enjoy watching him try.
Will Brady Hoke keep Michigan undefeated at home as Notre Dame, Nebraska and Ohio State roll into Ann Arbor this year? I don't know, but I'll enjoy watching him try, pointing left and right at anything and anyone willing to be pointed in the right direction.
A mere 88 hours remains until the Wolverines run out onto the field again, the 134th iteration of Michigan football. This one will be different than the last, and the next one will not be this one, for better or worse. We have one opportunity to experience this team in its current form. With the constant roster flux of incoming recruits and saddening departures, it's often difficult to separate the macro from the micro.
If you take a step back, the big picture becomes clear, imperfections and all. A clean slate beckons, calling for eyes and ears. Once the old season is over, the slate is cast among the rest, a dusty pile of slowly disintegrating memories.
It's always freshest at the beginning; when the banner is touched on Saturday, so begins a race against time.
BTN stage at the July 27, 2013, BTN Big10K in Chicago. (Fouad Egbaria)
It's been a long spring and summer (well, it's all relative), and so I haven't been doing a whole lot here since the basketball season ended. That is regrettable to me, even if this isn't exactly the most widely read thing in existence, but so it goes.
My year at Medill is almost up, and I'm in the midst of a hunt for a job in the world of journalism, perhaps a funny thing to mention on, you know, a blog of all things. While I never imagined that I would go into journalism when I first started this thing before my senior year at Michigan in the summer of 2010, I've come to realize that my semi-regular ramblings here have cemented the notion that I can, sometimes, write well about sports, and that I might want to do this for a living. Then again, so does everyone else.
In any case, while one thing comes to an end, another will soon begin. If you don't know what that thing is, then you are probably in the wrong place.
This offseason was a strange one. With the looming specter of endless school work and the need to secure a job, paired with the Chicago Bulls' short but exciting playoff run and the Blackhawks' run to yet another Stanley Cup, this offseason flew by with startling swiftness. I'm sitting here on August 2, 2013, and Michigan's next football game is no longer an abstract mile marker on the horizon; it is a certainty. On August 31, Michigan will take the field again. The result will matter. People will be keeping score.
The offseason has been another installment in the "Era of Good Feelings." Other than ongoing recruiting pyrotechnics, very little has happened, minus the injury of Jake Ryan; even he is miraculously predicted to return at some point in October. With the passing of Big Ten Media Days, we've gotten our fill of meticulously curated hype. Darboh, Chesson, Clark; as always, expectations will weigh on some more than others.
Michigan has holes to fill and questions to answer, just like every other squad in college football. Who will bring the pass rush? Can Michigan run the ball when it needs to (or at all)? What will Fitzgerald Toussaint bring coming off of a fairly brutal injury? How will Michigan's last line of defense perform without mistake-eraser Jordan Kovacs? Can Devin Gardner take the next step as the unquestioned starter (something which has been in the cards for so long it might have been mentioned in the Epic of Gilgamesh)?
These are all valid questions, and in considering them we've all surely come up with our individual record predictions. What mine happens to be doesn't really matter, but I think it's safe to say that as long as Michigan avoids disaster at certain positions, 2013 will prove more successful than 2012.
Michigan gets Ohio State, Nebraska and Notre Dame at home but must travel to Michigan State, Penn State, Northwestern (which might not be as much of a "home" game as it has been) and Iowa, who is down but has given Michigan trouble at Kinnick the last two times. Michigan has yet to lose at home under Brady Hoke, and will need to continue that trend in 2013 if it hopes to make its first trip to Indianapolis.
And so, we enter this season with a formless batch of wholesale uncertainty mixed with quiet confidence. We know Devin Gardner can play, but can the Wolverines run the ball? We know Michigan can win at home, but can they win on the road? We know Michigan has young talent in spots where it didn't exist in recent years, but will it grow up fast enough to make a difference in 2013?
Nobody has these answers but the Future, which thus far has a perfect record with respect to not disseminating spoilers. On the flip side, we'll have to keep waiting. Then again, four more weeks is but a moment in time.
Generic file photo (pre-MSU game)...insert "the student section is turrible cut it by a million percent and then revoke their scholarships and take their Blue Bucks" rabble here
Things and stuff. Stuff and things. Michigan played a thing on Saturday and something happened. Spoiler alert: that thing was pretty, pretty, pretty good. Read below to find out more:
As usual, I talk about the game over at Maize n Brew. Once again, Michigan plunged into the great-generally-unknown-but-kind-of-known world of attempting to do offense without Denard Robinson. It went well for the most part save for a pick late in the game that at the time seemed like ultimate doom. Oh, also that thing called "the running game" is not even a thing so much as an abstract idea beyond our ken. Unfortunately, it was the defense that turned in its first disappointing performance of the season, (excluding the Alabama and Air Force games). No matter, as a win is a win. Can somebody please assuage my concern that we might not see Denard play again until bowl season? Please? Anyone?
No, this has not nonsensically transformed into a Bulls blog. I am aware that Michigan has a football team still. Anyway, here's the first preview in a while from me (since ND, actually). Enjoy.
Last week:"Denard will play. Don't you trust me, guys?"
Time: 12 ET (ESPN)
Place: Michigan Stadium--Ann Arbor, MI
Line: Michigan -9.5
Mood: Let's take care of business, eh?
This season, like every one before it, has sped on without your consent, like a city bus driver who sees you running up to door outside buts pull away anyway.
After a second trip up in Iowa City last season, the Wolverines entered the final triumvirate of games (Illinois, Nebraska and Ohio State) with a lot at stake and many questions left unanswered. Would the Wolverines be able to shake their offensive struggles on the road to get the win against a defensively solid Illini team? What about Nebraska? I also heard that there was some sort of looming streak against the Buckeyes that needed to be taken care of that definitely hadn't constantly been on all of our minds.
The circumstances this time around aren't exactly the same. Michigan rolls into this stretch with one more loss than they had at this point last season, this year's Iowa team is probably the weakest of either trio of opponents in question (i.e. last three games of 2011 and 2012) and the Wolverines get a much better Ohio State team on the road.
As a relatively new student at Northwestern, I took it upon myself to, you know, pay attention to Northwestern football. I watched most of--and in some cases, all (!)--the Wildcats' first five games, but I admittedly haven't been able to keep up from the Penn State game onward. So, a decent percentage of the things I will write here are colored significantly by watching them in September, FWIW.
On Offense
Brady Hoke will continue to say things regarding Denard's status, but it's pretty clear at this point that Hoke is the Mozart of the trolling craft (yes, you the annoyed fan are indeed Salieri in this ridiculous analogy). With that said, I'm going to remain under the assumption that Devin Gardner will start until proven otherwise, which should happen at right around 11:59 a.m. ET on Saturday.
Northwestern has actually been pretty tough defensively this season, particularly against the run, which is bad news for a Michigan team that hasn't gotten much of a non-Denard ground game going against anybody this season. If Denard goes, this concern is mitigated, but that is, in fact, an "if." Northwestern sits at a respectable 43rd in defensive S&P+; of course, they are 49th in pass defense S&P+, 35th against the pass, furthering my already extensive confusion vis-a-vis the world of ADVANCED STATZ.
DC Mike Hankwitz has done a good job molding this defense into a solid run D outfit, headlined by its three linebackers, Damien Proby, Brian Nwabuisi, and the spectacularly named Chi Chi Ariguzo. Before I move on, I just want to note that Mike Hankwitz basically is Heisenberg, you guys:
Maybe we should not mess with this guy. (HT: nusports.com)
The Wildcats have had capable linebackers in the past, including some guy named Pat Fitzgerald, so it's no surprise that that is the case now. Proby and Nwabuisi lead the team in tackles (86 and 75, respectively) and Ariguzo and safety Ibraheim "Guy You Probably Know From Reading Preseason Preview Magazines" Campbell are tied at third with 67 each. That is the sign of a good run defense.
The Cats have given up 41 on the road at Syracuse, 39 at Penn State, 29 against Nebraska in a pseudo-home game and had a rough second half against Indiana (albeit one that featured an IU kickoff return for a TD from Tevin Coleman), with the Hoosiers finishing with 29 after backup Nate Sudfeld had taken over at quarterback. Otherwise, the Northwestern D has generally put the clamps down on most teams, although none of those teams are very good at the offense thing.
Unfortunately, Michigan has been debatably good on that front as well. However, this defense isn't Alabama's or Notre Dame's, obviously. For a point of reference, Iowa sits at 45th in def. S&P+, two spots behind NU.
As you'd expect, the weak link in this defense is the secondary. Campbell, to quote Hoke, is a "guy who can do some things," but he can't do it alone. Redshirt freshman corner Nick VanHoose has shown promise at times but has also been picked on at various points; the same applies for Stanford grad transfer Quinn Evans. However, the two didn't play two weeks ago against Iowa after VanHoose suffered a shoulder injury and Evans an ankle injury against Nebraska the week before. Playing backups at both corner spots against Iowa, the Wildcats made it okay, giving up only 17 points against an Iowa offense that has been absolutely disastrous minus Mark Weisman's TRUE GRIT.
To make a long story short, Northwestern will generally look to contain Denard and hope he doesn't complete any bombs deep like he did last season. This generally worked during the first half last season, when Denard tossed three picks. Given what we saw from Gardner last week, the Wildcats might not be in a much better position if he ends up starting.
This is the type of game that probably keeps Borges up the night before. I'm talking about the "night before the first game of the season excitement" sort of restlessness and not the "OH GOD I HAVE TO DO THIS AGAIN I HAVE A LINE MADE OF OFFICE SUPPLIES AND EVERYBODY HATES ME NO MATTER WHAT AHHH" kind.
Michigan will likely get off to a slow start again as it finds its bearings and establishes a non-zero threat to run. Once that happens, look for Borges to initiate "RexGrossmanGameplanGOINGDEEP.exe."
On Defense
As frustrating as it has been to talk about the offense, the defense has been like a ceaseless ray of sunshine. Michigan is truly #blessed to have a DC like Greg Mattison, no question Jim.
The Wildcats have been a shifting amorphous blob of an offense, particularly at quarterback, but it would seem that they have decided to roll with Kain Colter full-time. Pocket passing freshman Trevor Siemian got some serious run early in the season, with Colter serving as a Wildcat (literally) QB/WR. Siemian attempted only one pass against Iowa, and the 'Cats only threw the ball 10 times total. That's "Big Ten football at its best."*
But wait, it's not, because Northwestern is decidedly a run-based spread outfit. The 'Cats are 13th in rushing yardage per game (236 per) and 113th in passing (162 per). If you have watched Northwestern play for even five minutes this season, this is probably not a surprise to you.
Colter is not Denard when it comes to top-end speed, but in the context of a read-option offense, that's not necessarily the most important thing. Colter, as I mentioned earlier in the season, has a particular set of skills. Of those skills, neck chopping the zone read is one which he executes masterfully, making me wish Denard could do the same every time I see it unfold.
The Wildcats have managed a 61:41 run-pass split to date. Complementing Colter's zone read sorcery is diminutive tailback Venric Mark, who has honestly been one of the most exciting players in the country. He is a threat to break a big play at almost any time. Mark has racked up 910 yards with a nice and shiny 6.1 YPC.
The Wildcats do in fact have some capable receivers, even if Kyle Prater hasn't turned out to be the instantly impactful guy that NU fans were hoping. The quartet of Tony Jones, Demetrius Fields, Rashad Lawrence and Christian Jones all have similar numbers (200s in yardage, 0-2 TDs each). The Wildcats don't pass much though, especially with Colter taking almost all of the snaps.
Michigan shut down a run-based Minnesota team last week and did a pretty solid job against Nebraska (up until the very end) despite have an offense about as effective as one composed of 11 boxes of Cheerios. Washington and Campbell should be able to get a little push up the middle when NU does pass or run little isos and draws out of the shotgun.
Where Michigan can get beat, on occasion, is on the edges. With Colter and Mark's general jukability, Michigan's edge defenders will need to be vigilant. Even the glorious Jake Ryan has had lapses on the edge this season, although they've been relatively infrequent occurrences. So, this game will basically come down to how Michigan responds in these situations.
*Hey BTN, if you haven't trademarked this yet then I hereby claim it. I'm pretty sure this is how copyright law works, right?
Special Teams
Simply put, Michigan needs: a) no costly derps from Gallon and b) a not terrible performance from Hagerup, especially since I get the feeling that Michigan will get off to a slow start again on offense.
From the Northwestern side, Mark is also a special teams dynamo. He's been okay on kicks, but on punts he has picked up two touchdowns in 10 returns, with an average of 25 yards per. Dear Michigan ST guys: lanes, get to them!
Oh, also, kicker Jeff Budzien is 11/12 on the year with a long of 44, in addition to being perfect on extra points. He's a dependable guy who should be able to chip in some points when Northwestern drives stall.
Predictions of Negligible Worth
Gardner's performance last week was undoubtedly a jolt of confidence for the jittery post-Denard injury Michigan fan. Yes, it was just Minnesota, but Gardner looked far more capable than he has at any point in his career; I truly believe all the talk that his time at receiver helped him last week.
Defensively, I just see a fairly one-dimensional--albeit talented and dangerous--Northwestern offense, and Greg Mattison has dreams about those sorts of things. Colter and Mark are good enough that they will find their way onto the second level from time to time, but I don't believe that this is the week that Michigan starts giving up multiple big plays.
This will come down to Jake Ryan maintaining his level of play to date and Michigan's corners, namely J.T. Floyd, bringing the appropriate support on edge runs and screens. If all goes according to plan, Northwestern will be forced to execute several grinding drives; if this happens, I'm willing to bet that at least one or two of those ends in a field goal or no points at all.
To be quite honest, I'm not sweating the whole "will he or won't he play" re: Denard. If he plays, everything will be fine and dandy and Michigan will actually have a running game. If Devin is in, assuming last week wasn't a mirage, Michigan should be more than fine. He has the arm to test Northwestern's corners deep, and he should be able to pick up some more yardage on the ground a la last week when the first couple of reads aren't there.
Northwestern will keep it close throughout. This might be the strongest defensive front seven the 'Cats have fielded in some time, and Michigan's interior OL hasn't shown the ability to dominate anybody on a consistent basis all year, let alone against solid to pretty good fronts.
Colter can make some plays through the air, but I don't know that Northwestern will really try all that much. Barring a complete defensive implosion, Michigan should hold Northwestern to around 20 points, give or take. I'm thinking that we get an encore performance of last week's game: rough beginning, triumphant middle, medals being handed out on Endor in the end.
Sorry for the recent stream of Bulls talk, which probably made no sense if you decided to make your way to this tumbleweed-filled corner of the Internet at any point in the last few days. Sorry about that, I'm just trying to diversify my skill set around here. Plus, writing about the Bulls is the best way to get me mentally invested in a Rose-less Bulls for several months. Anywho, here's where I link to something I wrote elsewhere:
Michigan jumped to 6-3 (4-1) after following a truly macabre first quarter with three quarters of tremendous play in Minneapolis. Most importantly, Michigan very clearly has a capable backup option in case Denard's boo boo lingers, and I have the unfortunate sneaking suspicion that it just might. Of course, we probably won't know if Denard is going to play against Northwestern right up until kickoff because everything Brady Hoke says is artfully crafted trolling (of you, me, the media, fans, and basically everyone in his general vicinity). Michigan should be able to take Northwestern without Denard, but hopefully it does not come to that.
It's the bye week. I'm bored. Michigan is off this week and we all have a gaping hole in our lives that must be filled by retrospective stuff. Warning: I may talk some Northwestern football/other pro teams that I root for kind of soon just because I feel like it. So, there's that. ANYWAY, onward to this week's second helping of self-promotion. Like Denard, I am breaking all sorts of records here (Good Denard, not Bad Denard).
I said some things about the wide receivers over at Maize n Brew from the Alabama game through whatever the Notre Dame game was. Some of it was good, some of it was hopeful, some of it was in between. I'll probably be posting at least one other position review over there in the coming days, so head over there and check it out.
Brief note: I will attempt ("attempt" being the key word) to have these preview posts up on Friday each week around lunchtime. The grad school thing may prevent that from happening, but we'll see how it goes. I should be good to go for about the first month...after that, things might get a little dicier. The Exposition
I spent my high school years in Alabama, coinciding exactly with the Mike Shula era. This was a few months after the Mike Price fiasco, not to mention Dennis Franchione's controversial departure for Texas A&M a few months before that. Add NCAA sanctions to the mix and a new head coach in Shula* (who had been a career NFL guy to that point, and never a head coach), and you could say that things were not turning up Milhouse.
At the same time, my high school years as a Michigan fan were about as good as you could ask of your program within a 4-year window. John Navarre went out and won a Big Ten championship in 2003 to spite his squawking detractors, and Chad Henne rode piggybacked on Braylon Edwards's back in 2004 en route to another one. The 2005 season, "The Year of Infinite Pain", according to Brian, was a paper cut compared to the total system breakdown that was the Rich Rodriguez era. My final season as a high schooler was the 2006 season, of which I don't need to tell you about.
Michigan going 0-4 in its bowl games during that time put a bit of a damper on things, but it was an all around great time to be a Michigan fan, especially one living in Alabama. In retrospect, it seems almost unthinkable for Alabama to have a 4-win season and two 6-win seasons in a 4-year span, but it happened between 2003 and 2006.
Enter Nick Saban, and that's enough of that whole losing and not being mistake-free cybernetic organisms thing. Say what you will about oversigning, but there is no denying that Saban is one of the best defensive minds in the game. In five seasons, Saban has compiled a 55-12 record; half of those losses came in his first season. Simply put, Alabama has been the best team in the country since Saban arrived in Tuscaloosa.
Needless to say, in nine years, a whole lot has changed; this isn't 2003, anymore.
*Amusingly, he is now the QB coach for the Carolina Panthers, coaching one Cam Newton. Life has a funny way of working out sometimes.
Michigan Offense vs. Alabama Defense A note: I started writing this on Tuesday. I am assuming that Toussaint is not going to play, for what it's worth. The same goes for Frank Clark.
It's hard to decide which Michigan unit has a better chance of getting anything done in this game. As I detailed throughout the summer, this Alabama team is about as talented and athletic as you would expect. So, what's the catch? There is a catch, right?
Maybe, maybe not. Ask any Alabama fan about their defense and they will talk to you about RELOADING and 5-star recruits everywhere and how this ain't 2010 (when Alabama had to replace a similar amount of premium defensive talent and then went on to have a "disappointing" 3-loss season). Well, most of it is in fact true. Alabama is talented, and at certain positions, they will rotate guys in and out with relative ease.
However, some Alabama fans are just being unreasonable. I'm sorry. That's not to say that Alabama's defense won't be good (keep in mind that that 2010 defense was still very good) because they absolutely will, or that a defense that is a cut or two below last year's wouldn't still hold Michigan to a relatively low point total.
The simple fact is, no, Alabama fans, your defense will not be as good as last year's was. Then again, last year's defense was historically good, not just good in the context of the 2011 season. Some slippage can be reasonably expected, especially when replacing 7 defensive starters. Yes, I do understand that some of the players replacing these guys have seen some game action (for example, starting corner Dee Milliner), but not all of these guys have gotten meaningful playing time. Adrian Hubbard at SLB, Quinton Dial (was a rotational type guy last year that will be a half-starter along with Ed Stinson at one end position), Deion Belue is a JUCO guy in his first season in Tuscaloosa and a starting corner, Vinnie Sunseri is a true sophomore who did play some last season but has enormous shoes to fill at strong safety, etc.
As you probably know by know, Nick Saban is an evil genius whose defenses run with Gradgrindian efficiency; it's going to be "hard times"** for Michigan indeed if the OL consistently lets rushers through en route to clean shots on Denard. That cannot happen, especially early on in the contest. Nick Saban's Alabama defenses are known for their base 3-4, but Alabama is a fairly "multiple" team. The will also likely throw the 4-3 at us, the 5-2 (with two "Jack"*** linebackers on the field at once), and passing downs have their own special wrinkles for nickle packages. Alabama will throw a lot of different things, and Borges has ostensibly does his homework on all of them. That said, being ready to combat and execute these defensive looks is another battle entirely. FWIW, here's a useful video of Saban explaining the basis for the "Star" and "Money" positions in Alabama's nickel and dime looks.
Some Crimson Tide defenders to focus on at each level of the defense: 6'4'' 320lb. seniorNG Jesse Williams (he's a position switcher moving over from end, although he did play nose in his JUCO days), 6'2'' 232 lb. junior CJ Mosley at ILB (he's not nominally a starter but he basically is based on how much he will actually play, especially against a spread spread-ish team like Michigan), and 6'0'' 215 sophomore strong saftey Vinnie Sunseri (son of a coach!). Mosley in particular is a player to pay attention to when he's on the field. He's not technically a starter, but he's probably Alabama's best linebacker, and he will be on the field in passing situations. He's also Alabama's fastest backer, so expect him to do a lot of this when Denard does dump it off:
Don't get me wrong, I love Vincent Smith, but I'm not sure he will be able to shake Mosley on the edge. However, I think a guy like Justice Hayes could do some damage in this capacity, although that is admittedly based purely on recruiting hype at this point.
If Michigan (i.e. Barnum+Omameh/Mealer) cannot contain the Balrog that is Jesse Williams from getting into the backfield or render him irrelevant by attacking the edges and taking our chances there, it's going to be a long, long day. Remember this picture?
With the pressure that Alabama is sure to bring with the Jack linebacker, bringing Sunseri down into the box, and all other sorts of defensive sorcery, things could very well look like the picture above. I think Denard would agree with me: that is not something we want to happen. Alabama has spent the last few weeks talking about how they're coming for Denard, and why wouldn't they? Unless propelled by magic (4th quarter of the ND game, the entire VT game), if you key on Denard and force him to pass, things probably get ugly. Obviously, that is easier said than done, since not every team has the pure talent to force Michigan's hand in that way. Alabama, like Michigan State, certainly does.
Analogy time! Hoke:defensive line coaching::Nick Saban:defensive backs. Saban and DC Kirby Smart have supreme confidence in their DBs, which is not unreasonable given the talent they have at their disposal and the fact that Saban might be the best and most meticulous teacher of DB technique in the country. It's his special pet project amongst all other coaching duties, much like the DL is to Hoke.
A perfect example of this confidence is the Cover 1 Robber defense, which Chris Brown of Smart Football discussed in his book released earlier this summer (and summarized excellently by this MGoBlog diary). Alabama will put its corners in man coverage with regularity, and this decision is only strengthened by the fact that Michigan's top two receivers are Roy Roundtree and Jeremy Gallon. No offense to either player, but I imagine that neither exactly strikes fear in Saban's robot ersatz heart.
Want to see the Cover 1 Robber in action? You have seen it before, and I apologize in advance for this. If you'll remember, I recently linked to this excellent post from The Only Colors on the now infamous Double A-Gap blitz. Therein, a discussion of one variant, the Cover 1 Robber, was explained in detail. Guess which play that was:
As surprisingly complicated and variegated as that particular blitz is, you can be sure that Alabama has many like this one lined up and ready to go. Denard et al need to have their hot route cues down pat, or the above will very likely occur at some point.
I don't think that Michigan will have much success attacking the middle with the ground game...at least early on. Alabama stuffed everyone, even LSU's paleolithic but effective power running game, and I think that we should expect different results. I don't think that Borges is foolish enough to do this, but if Michigan lines up in the I and attempts to run any sort of traditional power run, you can bet that thousands of Michigan fans will all be throwing up their hands in unison. Unless we're in a short yardage or goal line situation, Michigan cannot afford to waste precious plays by plugging away up the middle. This isn't the 1990s: lightning bolts will not rain down on your head if you don't run to set up the pass.
The problem with that is Michigan has Denard Robinson, who, aside from being a transcendent runner with a fantastic smile, has had some basic mechanical issues in the passing game, not mention trouble reading defenses and reacting to pressure. All of these things do sound like a recipe for disaster against a defense like Alabama's, but we have to assume that Denard has improved throughout the offseason. Playing like he did against Nebraska and Ohio State would be a start, but that's all it would be. The same gaping holes that were there against the Huskers and Buckeyes likely won't be there against Alabama, and if they are they will be closing up a little more quickly.
So, what are the options? Really, there aren't many that don't involve pinpoint execution and, quite frankly, not getting blown back at the point of attack. If either happen, it's over. An UTL-esque miracle is just not going to happen against this team.
**ELITIST REFERENCES PAWLLLL
***FYI, the JLB is basically the pass-rushing linebacker; last year, it was Courtney Upshaw. Michigan Defense vs. Alabama Offense
We've had a couple relatively surprising moves on the defensive side of the ball come to light in the last week. First, Quinton Washington will be playing at the nose position and starting. Next to him is William Campbell, who was going to be play nose until the coaches eventually came to the realization that Black at the 3-tech just wasn't going to work. As such, BWC to the 3-tech and Black back to WDE it is. We won't truly know what the two-deep is actually like until the games begin, but, for now, Black's move is one more obstacle between Mario Ojemudia having to take the field against an Alabama team with a Brobdingnagian offensive line.
Speaking of the offensive line: they are huge. I previewed this position group way back in early April, and not much has changed (actually, nothing has). If you didn't already know, 2011 All-American LT Barrett Jones made the move to center to make room for Cyrus Kouandjio, which speaks to how highly the coaches think of the latter. This is the second move that Jones has mode (he was once a guard), so while position switches are often uncomfortable propositions, Jones has always been lauded as a smart guy and should be more than alright.
Alabama has a bevy of talented tailbacks and wide receivers. Like the secondary and linebackers, experience is the primary issue with most of these guys, although they are by no means completely green. None of these guys are Trent Richardson or Julio Jones, but they might not need to be if the ground game has worn Michigan down as I'm sure Alabama is intending to do.
You probably know about Eddie Lacy by now. He was Alabama's #3 in 2010, Richardson's backup last season, and should be the feature back this season. A pesky injury kept him out of most of spring ball, IIRC (including the A-Day scrimmage), and has still seemed to be banged up as recently as the last week or two. I linked to a video of him doing a short drill with a fairly significant amount of tape on his ankle, which may or may not mean anything.
Saban has used the words "day-to-day", and the fact that he'd be "ready to go in 5 or 6 days"...he said this on August 18th. The more time that passes, the more I get the feeling that he won't be 100% on 9/1. If that is the case, our old friend RS freshman Dee Hart and true freshman TJ Yeldon become the next guys in line. Jalston Fowler, Alabama's #3 last year and the Tide's top mooseback, appears to have made the move to H-back, where walk-on Kelly Johnson has won the starting role in what can be considered the shocker of fall camp (it hasn't been that exciting of a fall camp). Johnson has big shoes to fill, as the H-back is a very important player in Alabama's offense, which should basically stay the same despite the hiring of former Washington OC Doug Nussmeier (last year's OC, Jim McElwain, departed for the Colorado State head coaching job). Brad Smelley was a big time target for McCarron last season on key third downs (he was Alabama's second-most productive receiver in 2011). It's unreasonable to expect Johnson to be as good as Smelley, but he did win the starting nod, so he must be doing something right.
At receiver, Alabama appears to be rolling with 6'0'' 185 sophomore DeAndrew White and 6'2'' 195 junior Kevin Norwood at the "X" and "Z" positions, with 5'11'' 185 sophomore Christion Jones taking the "H" receiver position (i.e. the slot). I was somewhat surprised to see White win the starting over Kenny Bell, Alabama's leading returning receiver, but I'm not sure that it matters much. Bell is a physical, athletic receiver, and McCarron looked to him downfield on occasion last year. AJ and Bell hooked up for a 39-yard and 41-yard TD against Tennessee and Auburn (a flea flicker, FWIW) respectively. Fast forward to 0:35 in the video below to see this in action.
Anywho, Alabama has more, but to continue to name them would be overkill. Here's the thing. Alabama's offense is a little more complicated than it may seem, but in the end this game will be all about those things that make us roll our eyes when guys like Merill Hoge talk about them: toughness, resilience, the ability to bend but not break, completely unironic GRIT. If Michigan is going to get this done, it probably won't be pretty. Alabama will pick up yards on the ground and, inevitably, through the air when Mattison is forced to bring increasingly crazier and riskier blitzes. However, if Michigan can hunker down once Alabama cross the M's 30, not unlike the Sugar Bowl, then I'm saying there's a chance.
I mentioned this back when I took a look at Alabama's quarterbacks and I'll say it again: McCarron is a better player than many Michigan fans are probably giving him credit for. He's a solid player, and yeah, sure, having that team around him certainly helps. However, all you need to do to realize that being a QB for such a team is not so easy is to recall LSU's 2011 season. The quarterbacking during the national title game was so rough that folks with no stake in the result of the game (me, for example) began to plead all over the Internet for Les Miles to PUT IN THE OTHER GUY, a guy who is often known as Jarrett "Pick 6" Lee.
I mentioned that moving QW to nose and Black back to WDE was kind of like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic, but the more thought I give this configuration, the more I like it. That is 600+ pounds (607 according to MGoBlog's Fall Roster Overanalysis) of human being there in the middle. Will it be enough against an interior trio of Chance Warmack, Barrett Jones, and Anthony Steen? Maybe not, but I like Michigan's chances much better with QW than Black.
As for the ends, there was once a point when I was fairly optimistic about this group. Now, not so much. I'm having visions in my head of Beyer and Roh getting handled by Fluker and Kouandjio in the ground game and getting stonewalled in the pass rush, and who knows what kind of player Black will be after adding weight and spending so much practice time on the inside. At this point, any sort of pass rush that Michigan can get from the these guys is gravy, which is a pretty ominous thing to have to say.
With that said, things are rosier in the back 7 for Michigan. As far as tight ends go, Michael Williams is Alabama's starter. He doesn't seem to be anything extraordinary, but he is by no means a liability or anything. He was a red zone target against Penn State last season (and also the recipient of a fake field goal TD pass that Ace linked to here).
Otherwise, I feel pretty confident that Michigan's 'backers will match up in coverage. The only catch is the Williams is 6'6'' and a biscuit under 270. OF COURSE HE IS. When Alabama has Williams and an H-back in the game, odds are you are about to get smashed in the face. He's a blocker and possible red zone guy...basically, what we all hope AJ Williams will one day become.
I feel confident enough in Michigan's safeties not giving up the dreaded big play for the first half or so. But...after that, especially if Alabama has racked up enough yardage that plays like the above dart to Bell can happen? That is the moment that the game is over.
What Needs to Happen, Fergodsakes
On defense:
Say it with me now: bend but don't break.I'm sure Mattison has some tricks up his sleeve, but tricks can only do so much when the other team is simply bigger and faster. Michigan is not going to win the stat sheet battle. If Mattison's defense gives up 500 yards and manages to hold Alabama under 31, there is hope. Make them kick field goals (see: 2011 LSU game, Part 1).
Countess and Floyd. Please be in pre-OSU/VT form. Alabama has quite a few talented players at receiver, but I'm not really convinced that there is a star among them (certainly not a Julio type). This goes without saying, but given the probably lack of a front four pass rush, JT and Blake will be on an island more fairly often. The good news is that, after a year of Mattison's diabolical blitzes and aggressiveness verging on over-aggressiveness, they're probably up to the challenge.
Quinton and William. To put it simply, if these two look like they're on skates, there is simply no hope. Again, you can only scheme and mitigate your weaknesses so much. As Saturday approaches, I've become increasingly confident that they'll be able to hold up at least adequately; whether the linebackers can shed Warmack and Steen and tackle the ball carrier--whether an all-around talent like Lacy or a darty sort like Hart--is another story entirely. For the record, I'm fairly confident that Demens, Morgan, and Ryan will do a decent job. Jake Ryan, after QW and BWC, might be the most important player on Michigan's entire team in this game.
On offense:
No turnovers please. If Michigan turns the ball over, chances are a win is not happening. The margin for error is razor thin.
Get the passing game going early. My nightmare is that Michigan comes out, plugs away on the ground, fails miserably and then sees everything spiral out of control as Michigan tries to pass its way back in the game with a guy like Denard. The slant will be there, and Borges will call upon that old standby, the throwback screen to Gallon to start pushing the Alabama linebackers and safeties away from the LOS. Naturally, if that happens, that's where Denard goes to work. If there's 9 in the box, forget about it
Devin Gardner. The wild card-iest wild card who ever wild card'd. If he is a legitimate force at receiver, that could change everything. To be quite honest, after Milliner, the rest of Alabama's corners don't impress me as much as Alabama's new linebackers do. Also, I need to see Sunseri and Clinton-Dix in action before I deem them the second coming of Ronnie Lott. I think that Michigan might get some mileage out of the so called "QB Oh Noes" play, as Brian calls it, what with Sunseri looking to be an involved and aggressive player in the run game. Borges needs to scheme against that position.
Attack the edge, quickly. Yes, SEC speed and all that, but I think that it's just about a waste of time to try (past a token effort) to develop a between-the-tackles running game, at least in the first quarter or so. Michigan needs to be creative in its ground game, kind of like it was against Ohio State last November. Get numbers going to the edges and let's see how those pseudo-newbies at linebacker handle Denard. WR end arounds. Denard jet sweeps.
Trick plays. Let's see 'em. Seriously, Al. 2008 Capital One Bowl Redux, this needs to be.
Predictions of Negligible Worth
Making these sorts of predictions, especially for a game like this, is a torturous thing. A prediction is not really one data point that you pluck out of thin air. It's a deliberate whittling down of all results from a giant marble slab of possibility. My point: could I see everything going perfectly, Alabama having a bad day, and Michigan eeking out an incredibly ugly yet satisfying Sugar Bowl-esque win? Yes, I honestly can. Alabama is talented, and it speaks to the state of things that Michigan is such an underdog in spite of all the big name players that Alabama lost. In two or three years, this game will be an even contest going in, but we're not quite there yet. Still, this is a good Michigan team, and not one that should be underestimated.
With that said, too many things have to go well for Michigan to win this game. Michigan will probably need to have a turnover margin of at least +2. How likely is this? If this game is played ten times, Michigan probably has everything fall into place maybe once. That's what it is. We're banking on that one, that unlikely scenario, the "Jareth Glanda catching a pass" of games.
As much as it pains me to say it, I just can't make that prediction. To be able to stick it to the reigning national champs, the team that I had to spend four years hearing about as a high schooler, would be something beyond tremendous, if such a superlative even existed.
In the end, Michigan keeps it close for the first half, but without Toussaint, Michigan just won't have enough juice to keep enough drives going to make it a game. Even with Fitz, I'm not sure that Michigan has enough. It won't be pretty, but it won't be an outright blowout. At the same time, I don't think it will necessarily be "close." Michigan is a 13.5 point underdog, which, sadly, is just about right.
Hello, Internet. I am Fouad Egbaria, a Michigan grad ('11) and recent graduate of the MSJ program at Northwestern's Medill School of Journalism. This is a blog that attempts to analyze the highs and lows of Michigan football and basketball; I'm just trying to capture the spirit of the thing. I will also write about general Big Ten news, as well as Chicago professional sports (from time to time).
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