Countdown to Kickoff, Hoke talks Fitz and Myerberg previews Michigan

Fouad Egbaria

A few quick things on this second-to-last Tuesday before college football (!):

• No embedding available, but here's today's Countdown to Kickoff, featuring linebacker James Ross III. It's the usual, but there is a nice hit there around the 1:00 mark. 

• From Nick Baumgardner, Brady Hoke says Fitz has "looked like the Fitz of old."

• I haven't gotten around to reading it just yet, but you know the season is nigh when you're a team with conference title hopes and Paul Myerberg gets to you in his offseason preview series (now at USA Today, in case you missed that development). Michigan checks in at No. 18: 

• "In a nutshell: The Wolverines are very close to being the most complete team in the Legends Division, and likely the second-most complete team in the entire Big Ten. Nebraska has a positively superb offense but is long on question marks defensively. Michigan State's defense is superb, as always, but the offense remains a major issue after last season's distressing struggles. Meanwhile, UM has a good-to-strong offense – solid with the potential for more – and a young yet productive defense. Basically, Michigan's offense is not as good as Nebraska's, nor is its defense as good as Michigan State's – but combined, this is the most complete team in the division. The issue is that the Wolverines are extremely young."

Spring and Summer Give Way

BTN stage at the July 27, 2013, BTN Big10K in Chicago. (Fouad Egbaria)

It's been a long spring and summer (well, it's all relative), and so I haven't been doing a whole lot here since the basketball season ended. That is regrettable to me, even if this isn't exactly the most widely read thing in existence, but so it goes. 

My year at Medill is almost up, and I'm in the midst of a hunt for a job in the world of journalism, perhaps a funny thing to mention on, you know, a blog of all things. While I never imagined that I would go into journalism when I first started this thing before my senior year at Michigan in the summer of 2010, I've come to realize that my semi-regular ramblings here have cemented the notion that I can, sometimes, write well about sports, and that I might want to do this for a living. Then again, so does everyone else. 

In any case, while one thing comes to an end, another will soon begin. If you don't know what that thing is, then you are probably in the wrong place. 

This offseason was a strange one. With the looming specter of endless school work and the need to secure a job, paired with the Chicago Bulls' short but exciting playoff run and the Blackhawks' run to yet another Stanley Cup, this offseason flew by with startling swiftness. I'm sitting here on August 2, 2013, and Michigan's next football game is no longer an abstract mile marker on the horizon; it is a certainty. On August 31, Michigan will take the field again. The result will matter. People will be keeping score. 

The offseason has been another installment in the "Era of Good Feelings." Other than ongoing recruiting pyrotechnics, very little has happened, minus the injury of Jake Ryan; even he is miraculously predicted to return at some point in October. With the passing of Big Ten Media Days, we've gotten our fill of meticulously curated hype. Darboh, Chesson, Clark; as always, expectations will weigh on some more than others. 

Michigan has holes to fill and questions to answer, just like every other squad in college football. Who will bring the pass rush? Can Michigan run the ball when it needs to (or at all)? What will Fitzgerald Toussaint bring coming off of a fairly brutal injury? How will Michigan's last line of defense perform without mistake-eraser Jordan Kovacs? Can Devin Gardner take the next step as the unquestioned starter (something which has been in the cards for so long it might have been mentioned in the Epic of Gilgamesh)?

These are all valid questions, and in considering them we've all surely come up with our individual record predictions. What mine happens to be doesn't really matter, but I think it's safe to say that as long as Michigan avoids disaster at certain positions, 2013 will prove more successful than 2012. 

Michigan gets Ohio State, Nebraska and Notre Dame at home but must travel to Michigan State, Penn State, Northwestern (which might not be as much of a "home" game as it has been) and Iowa, who is down but has given Michigan trouble at Kinnick the last two times. Michigan has yet to lose at home under Brady Hoke, and will need to continue that trend in 2013 if it hopes to make its first trip to Indianapolis. 

And so, we enter this season with a formless batch of wholesale uncertainty mixed with quiet confidence. We know Devin Gardner can play, but can the Wolverines run the ball? We know Michigan can win at home, but can they win on the road? We know Michigan has young talent in spots where it didn't exist in recent years, but will it grow up fast enough to make a difference in 2013? 

Nobody has these answers but the Future, which thus far has a perfect record with respect to not disseminating spoilers. On the flip side, we'll have to keep waiting. Then again, four more weeks is but a moment in time. 

Bloomin' Onions For Everyone

(HT: Michigan Football)

As you already know, Michigan and South Carolina have been tapped to play in the 27th Outback Bowl in Tampa, Fla. It's like the late '90's/early 2000's all over again. 

 Michigan enters college football's exhibition season postseason with an 8-4 record, having beaten essentially everyone they ostensibly should beat and losing to every team on the schedule worth something (although Saturday's Big Ten championship game makes the Nebraska loss a tad less easier to rationalize away, Denard's injury accounted for or not). 

The Gamecocks, on the other hand, enter with a 10-2 (6-2) record, with their only two losses coming in back-to-back on the road at LSU and Florida. The former was a hard-fought 2-point defeat, but the Florida game was the lone black mark on the 2012 docket for USC (a 33-point defeat against the Gators). 

The Gamecocks handled Georgia with ease back in early October, but just as in 2007, Georgia appears to be a much different team now than they were back then. Regardless, that 35-7 drubbing is impressive. 

Steve Spurrier's squad also boast a solid 10-point victory on the road at Clemson during rivalry week, a win which made Spurrier South Carolina's all-time leader in wins. Click clack indeed. The Gamecock defense held Clemson QB Tajh Boyd to fewer than 200 yards through the air (183 to be exact) and forced Boyd to throw a pair of picks. 

Although many Michigan fans may be breathing a sigh of relief as a result of avoiding Georgia, Florida and LSU, South Carolina will provide a tough test for a Michigan team that has not been able to run the ball with its tailbacks against basically anyone this season. Needless to say, what Michigan does on the offensive line to combat USC's talented front will go a long way toward determining the outcome, assuming the Michigan defense can continue to do what it has done all season post-Alabama. 

As always, I'm sure the Michigan blogosphere will dissect this matchup in painstaking detail in the coming weeks, but, for now, some numbers (NB: it doesn't look like Football Outsiders has updated to include the last two weeks of games): 

• South Carolina ranks 41st in offensive FEI and 6th in defensive FEI. Michigan is  25th and 23rd respectively in those departments. 

• In S&P (a play-by-play metric as opposed to the drive-oriented FEI), USC ranks 45th in offensive S&P+ (to Michigan's 10th) and 8th in defensive S&P+ (to Michigan's 29th). 

• Of course, South Carolina is 5th in the nation in sacks with 40. LET'S HAVE A REAL GOOD TIME. Clowney leads the way with 13, and fellow defensive ends Chaz Sutton, Aldrick Fordham and Devin Taylor have pitched in a combined 12.5 sacks themselves. Godspeed, play-actioning-after-not-really-establishing-a-run-threat-at-all Devin Gardner.

• Despite losing star tailback Marcus Lattimore to yet another extremely unfortunate knee injury in the Tennessee game, the Gamecocks finished the season with comfortable wins against Arkansas, Wofford and Clemson. Against Tennesee, Arkansas and Wofford, QB Connor Shaw completed 68% of his passes (50-82) for 750 yards and six touchdowns to three interceptions, in addition to two touchdown scores on the ground. He did have to sit out the Clemson game after a foot injury suffered against Wofford; backup Dylan Thompson performed admirably, completing 23 of 41 passes for 310 yards and three touchdowns to only one interception.
• Shaw might not be Danny Wuerffel, but it appears that Spurrier has finally found an above average option at quarterback in Columbia. Shaw has had an efficient season through the air and is a dangerous runner as well. Although this play was called back on a clipping penalty, this Shaw run against Missouri speaks to his running ability: 

Michigan To Play Thursday Night Game Sign of the Apocalypse

ANN ARBOR, MI--In a release sent out earlier today, it was announced that Michigan would be playing a Thursday night game (HT: MGoBlog*) for the first time in its long and storied history. The Wolverines will travel to Utah to take on the Utes at Rice-Eccles Stadium, a rare weekday darby for a program that prides itself on tradition and honor and noon kickoffs. This is a sign of the imminent Apocalypse, to be sure.

Michigan has in fact played weekday games before, most memorably a Friday night contest in 2003 against Minnesota in the Metrodome. However, playing on Thursday has never been done by a Wolverine football team. Naturally, concerns abound as a result of this controversial move.

Given the Michigan fan base's voracious appetite for the traditional, we went out into the field to do some crowd sourcing, asking Michigan fans the most obvious and salient questions: is this the straw that broke the Universe's back? Is it officially time to lose all hope? Will it be possible to complain about Dave Brandon in a world which no longer exists? Will Michigan fans be able to continue a carefully nurtured brand of lifelong sanctimony in what could quite possibly be a lawless and anarchistic post-apocalyptic society? In light of this news, these are the important questions of our time.

"This is simply the worst possible outcome. Murphy's Law indeed, ha!" said Winston Tweedington, 52, a wealthy Michigan alumnus and man of great importance. However, Tweedington's tone instantaneously shifted from playful to somber. "It's a slippery slope, to be sure. Next we will find ourselves side by side with the medicore hoi polloi," Tweeington muttered with undisguised disgust. "The...Mid-American Conference. Bah!"


Tweedington picked up steam. "First it's Thursday night games, and next thing you know...that's right, my journalistic fellow. We'll begin to admit athletes solely on the basis of their athletic exploits as opposed to the strength of their body of work on the gridiron of scholastic pursuit! I worry whether or not Michigan will find itself out of place with its similarly-minded peers: the Ivy League, Northwestern, Stanford, Vanderbilt, and so forth," Tweedington said, with no hint of irony to be found in his tone as he languidly held a glass of scotch and played with the lapel of his smoking jacket with a carelessness that verged on noble apathy.

Based on our brief interview, Tweedington seemed to be tragically resigned to a fate that was, in his mind, beneath him; however, we here at the Generic Horrible News Network often marvel at the vast spectrum and the many different manifestations of fandom that can be found at a football institution like Michigan.

John Smith, 44, of Eight Point Buck, Michigan had his own concerns about this development. "Football on a Thursday?" Smith asked. "Heck, that's no good for me. The folks walkin' into Walmart ain't gonna greet themselves, you know? Man's gotta work," he said, wiping a fleck of Costco hot dog from his $3 shirt that he purchased in 1984. Adjusting for inflation, this shirt was worth approximately 92 cents when purchased, which Smith proudly admitted to paying for with a sack of pennies and expired Big Boy gift certificates.

"I didn't go to Michigan, but hey, football's football, right? I don't need some fancy Wall Street guy to tell me when to watch. All I know is, I'll be parked on that couch over there at noon that Saturday, telling everybody in the house not to breathe for three hours...on account of the reception on those rabbit ears getting all sorts of messed up," Smith explained. Whereas Tweedington saw this as a grave setback, Smith appeared to take the news with a charmingly folksy resolve. Nothing would stop him from watching the game on Saturday, even if it meant not watching the game at all.

Variety is the spice of life, they say, and there is certainly no shortage of variety with respect to this Hungarian Wax Pepper of an issue.

In order to hit the youth demographic, we also spoke with several current Michigan students. An LSA sophomore, who asked to be referred to simply as "The Chad," had his own unique take on this new territory for Michigan football. "Thursday? THIS THURSDAY?? BRO. Something's going down and nobody told me? Check this, I'm about to send the illest angry email to the house listserv bro," said The Chad, plainly upset that no one had told him anything. The Chad pulled out a laptop emblazoned with the symbols of youth culture: stickers "repping"--as they say--Entourage, obscure unlistenable house music, and a context-less quote from The Boondock Saints. 


Upon informing The Chad that nothing out of the ordinary was in fact going down this Thursday, and that the Thursday in question centered around a football game taking place in 2015, The Chad remarked, "Football? Is that that thing that comes after the drinking?"

We also spoke with a junior majoring in engineering student who was surprisingly ecstatic upon hearing this news: "Great, now I don't have to set aside time for watching football. All that time spent in the Big House or at road games on Saturdays is just plain inefficient," the remarkably Vitamin D-deficient junior explained matter-of-factly. After a few moments, the student went on to ask, "Wait. What's football?"

Finally, we took the liberty of entering a crowded lecture hall--assembled for the esteemed Linda Gregerson's "Shakespeare's Principal Plays" course--and asking several students for their thoughts. We approached one student, near the back of the cavernous East Hall lecture room, who seemed half asleep and had his laptop open to a blank Microsoft Word document. The black progress marker flicked in and out of existence on the empty page, a startling reminder of the ever constant nature of change, of birth, death, and rebirth.

We not at all disruptively made our way down the row, forcing everyone to stand up--and giving acerbic glares to those who didn't--as we made our way toward the student. We sat down next to him and carefully poked him out of his probably unsatisfying semi-slumber, which caused him to jolt up and  sleepily say "Yeah man Hamlet, sucks for that guy that he stabbed," before trailing off and noticing my presence. "Who are you?" he asked, startled.

I asked, "What do you think about Michigan's schedule Thursday night game against Utah to be played in 2015?" Gregerson noticed all of this and audibly sighed at the podium, continuing with her lecture on the basics of iambic pentamter, Hamlet's existential crisis, and how Shakespeare totally didn't have a team of probably underpaid ghostwriters.

The student, an undeclared LSA freshman, perked up at the question, turning to his laptop and pointing to the website displayed on his browser,"mgoblog.com."

He began, "Well, on MGoBlog, the best source of news on Michigan sports anywhe--," he said, before we cut him off, took his Mountain Dew, and dumped its contents on his head.

"THATS WHAT YOU GET FOR READING BLOGS, IDIOT. TRADITIONAL MEDIA RIDE OR DIE!"At that point, we were forced to leave, but not until many passive aggressive Shakespeare verses and tawdry pun-based epithets were hurled at us while we were sent on our way.

Unfortunately, Dave Brandon was unable to be reached for comment, as he was at the Anti-Tradition League's annual Anti-Tradition Cosmic Bowling tournament, a philanthropic event whose proceeds go directly to Michigan's burgeoning Advertising and Marketing Budget.**

We were, however, able to reach Terry Schmidt, Brandon's lead marketing guru and assistant to the AD.

"We're really excited about what we've got in store for that Thursday at Utah. Let's just say we've got some pretty revolutionary ideas cooking up there in the ol' noggin', some things that will really get our principal market demograpics goin'," Schmidt said, somewhat ambiguously pointing to the box of pizza on his desk and then to the Michigan jersey on the wall.

We returned to Tweedington to ask if he had any thoughts about what Schmidt had told us. Tweedington sighed dramatically before walking over to the gramophone in the corner of his study and playing his vinyl copy of Beethoven's "Moonlight Sonata", which was notably scuffed, bearing the telltale markings of overuse.

Some fans are dealing with the news differently than others, but make no mistake about it: whether it triggers the end of the world or not, change is coming. Clear your evenings on Sept. 3, 2015, Michigan fans. You're going to be watching football, whether you like it or not.
---
*A traditional news outlet HTing a blog...ha! It's almost as if this post is facetious in nature!
**Brought to you by Arby's.

Mo' Money Mo' Problems

I had an entire post ready to go this morning re: The Great Band Crisis of 2012, but, naturally, it seems that the Internet decided to eat it. This is somewhat irritating but also might have been the universe's way of saying "shut up, guy, the world does not need a 47,194th take on this issue." Duly noted, universe. In any case, I have reproduced the most important part of the lost post below. The rest would've been just noise, anyway.

I don't know what the want from me/

It's like the more money we come across/

The more problems we see

Miscellaneous Minutiae, 4/4/2012

Back from a bit of a break. That noise you hear? Oh, that's just FOOTBALL. Adieu, hockey and basketball...it's time for football. Sort of. 
Self-Promotion, Still Shameless: Check out Maize n Brew later today for some basketball talk from me re: how the offense will look decidedly un-Beilein-like going forward. Basically, I suggest that Michigan basketball will look a lot like this:

Let's hope Michigan can bring a little more defensive intensity than that. "THE BALL'S IN HIS SHIRT NOOO WHAT ARE YOU DOING."-Person that takes AND1 basketball way too seriously

Footbaw Talk Is Positively Gorgeous: Al Borges sat down with Howard Griffith and talked real, live footbaw. If this sentence excited you the same way that it did me, then: a) you have a problem and b) it's probably early April.

The two issues to address in the passing game re: Denard are footwork and "second decision making." Al makes even relatively simple concepts like, say, making decisions, sound really cool. He then goes on to break down two plays, the first being that interception against Purdue, an intermediate dig route to Roundtree against Iowa, and the long completion to Gallon on Michigan's late game drive against Notre Dame. You would think that these are relatively simple plays, but I was hoping there'd be more at the end of the video. Alas, it's only five minutes long, but it does give you just enough to ward off the pangs of football withdrawal for a little while.

In any case, the Purdue interception, in particular, is the sort of play that Denard simply cannot make going forward. Given that this will be year 2 in the system, I feel pretty good about not only this sort of play being eliminated from Denard's game, but turnovers in general. Footwork is doubly difficult for mobile QBs like Denard; happy feet leads to interceptions, missed receivers, and other unfortunate happenings. Denard's feet vis-a-vis the passing game (i.e. getting the appropriate depth in his drops, not getting happy feet, not throwing off the back foot, etc.) are arguably more important than the role, in, well, running the ball. Al was not perfect in 2011, but it's hard to feel anything but comfort going forward. Now if we could only just get him to officially become enamored with the concept of continuing to recruit mobile types (of course, very few will be as fast as Denard, if any even exist) for the QB position, things would be just perfect.

Terms to add to your Michigan football lexicon: "steal his eyes" (defender reading the QB's eyes) and "gettin' in the fight" (in reference stepping up in the pocket through the lanes created by the outside rushers).

Diamond in the Rough: Nick Baumgardner's article on GRIII's skyrocketing recruiting hype is another thing to file under "Beilein is a ridiculous talent evaluator" file. According to GRIII himself:

"Those guys believed in me before anyone else really did, and that means a lot," Robinson said.

And also:

"I believe some schools look too much into what a player is right now, and not what their potential could be. Michigan did a great job with that, though, and that's what I really liked about them."

 So, there you go. GRIII has seen his stock rise from "fringe high-major" level to the #28 player in the country according to Scout, making him a just-about-5-star prospect. That is an incredible jump, but if anybody would've been able to predict that sort of spike, it's John Beilein. As much hype as Mitch McGary has gotten (and as much under-the-radar indie hype as Stauskas has gotten), GRIII is the guy from this class that I'm most excited about. He's the athletic dynamo of a winger that elite teams usually have at least a couple of...I imagine his outside game will need a little work, but he will contribute significantly no matter what.

Outside of the article's recruiting slant and GRIII's using not making the McDonald's All-American team as motivation to get better, the article references the fact GRIII was told by the staff that he'd play both the 2 and the 3, and not the 3/4 as was previously expected. I don't normally get too caught up in the numerical designations, but I though it was interesting. Then again, it's entirely possible that this quote was based on information that preceded the news of Smotrycz's departure; in light of that, it's possible that GRIII will still see some time at the 4, although I really sort of hope not. This of course leaves the conundrum of having both GRIII and THJ at the 3, and you'd really like to have both on the court at the same time. If THJ can seriously refine his handle and outside shooting this offseason, then you can pencil GRIII in for a starting spot. Otherwise, I think we're probably looking at Burke-Stauskas-THJ-Morgan-McGary, which is just fine.

Losing Smotrycz, Novak, and Douglass is unfortunate, but I think the future is still bright.

Meanwhile, in Alabama: [Insert Shutdown Fullback's "pig running across a football field" animation]

On a serious note, 2012 signee Dalvin Tomlinson sustained what is termed a "serious" knee injury. Tomlinson is 6'3'' 270. Care to guess how he hurt his knee? If you guessed "soccer," well, you must actually live in the Yellowhammer State, otherwise you'd be inclined to believe that soccer has long since been banned by the Alabama State Legislature.

I'm not completely sure where he fits in the Bama 2-deep at this point in time, but odds are he would have at least been a contributor, even with Australian manbearpig Jessie Williams officially moving to defensive tackle after spending last year as a RVB-esque DT/DE. In any case, it seems a little fishy that he says he'll be "over it" by the time the season starts. Assuming it's an ACL injury, the common wisdom is that that sort of thing takes about six months, which would see the last month of his recovery begin in September. Of course, this last sentence was rampant speculation, so who knows.

Of course, since people are horrible, I must state the obvious: all injuries, suffered by anybody and no matter for what team, are unfortunate. Anyone that roots for an opponent to get injured should be forced to watch the 2008 Northwestern game on loop in a dark room with their eyelids taped open. With that said, this is something to monitor as we get closer to September 1st, as Alabama has already lost a significant amount of defensive talent to the NFL.

More? Andy Katz has Michigan at #8 in his early top 25...yeah, try not to think about 2009 (you can't). Excellent recruiting stuff from UMHoops, as always. Spring practice notes from Tuscaloosa; nothing too exciting. Dudes are nursing injuries, the O-linemen are getting used to lining up next to new faces. Spring football, yeah!