In less than 72 hours, Michigan will take the field time zones away from Ann Arbor, in a stadium of red and white on a Thursday night. Like the beginning of every campaign, there's a growing sense of a paradoxical far-off imminence (something that is probably a magnificent word in the German lexicon not available to English speakers).
The first game is near, yet far. We are all hurtling through the dark and dusty space that is the offseason -- a wormhole beckons. Next to it is a sign: "Here for college football." It is both far away and very close, the wormhole. Who knows how long it will take to get there, and what will happen once there.
You spend hours and hours waiting, but really they're months. February passes, and then you wake up one day and the snows have melted for good. A walk outside without an umbrella becomes a foolish venture in the rainy days of spring. Summer hits, those dog days.
Then August. August, August, August. Time stretches and bends and distorts. As a fan, it almost feels closer to football on Aug. 1 than it does on Aug. 31.
But it's game week: finally.
This time, things are different. Not in the sense that "Michigan is back," or anything like that. Things are different -- and as I write this, I'm still trying to figure out exactly what it is.
***
I haven't written here in a while -- life has gotten in the way. Nothing has changed about my obsession with Michigan sports, the obsession that pushed me to start this thing on a perfectly uneventful summer night five years ago.
But as anyone knows, when you get a little bit older, things change, particularly once you are no longer a student (undergraduate or graduate) and are, what they might call, a "real person." This is a terrifying metamorphosis, for all of the obvious reasons, but perhaps one of the least consequential subset of changes is the way fandom changes over time.
For the first time last year, I found myself getting up during game action to grab something from the kitchen. There was once a time when, once the game started, I did not move from my sitting spot, as if tethered to it for eternity or the end of the game, whichever came first.
Last year, during the Indiana game, I vaguely remember falling asleep during a portion of the third quarter. It was a long week and a dreary day, and even the surprising success of Ann Arbor's own Drake Johnson couldn't fend off a doze.
Maybe I was tired. Maybe I'm getting older. Maybe it was something else: indifference, a dissipation of pointless resolve.
***
A counterpoint, exemplifying said pointless resolve. Once, as a freshman at Michigan, in 2007, I stayed for the duration of the Oregon game. Until the bitter end, I always thought, and that didn't change then. A reasonable person would think of the hours wasted at a game that was headed for dissatisfaction: I, like some indeterminate thousands in that stadium, decided to stay, out of some misplaced sense of duty (or, less romantically, the selfish ability to say, years down the road, that I stayed, pointlessly).
Even after the hire of Jim Harbaugh, the offseason took hold, and I will admit -- and this is alarming to write -- that a cousin of indifference continued to hold sway. Life has a way of flicking away less consequential things, sports and the watching of them. At least, it tries to do that.
And so the months went by, and Harbaugh stories rolled in: the summer of Harbaugh. He helped people involved in car accidents, he endeared himself to many by stonewalling Colin Cowherd, he upset coaches far away by setting up camps on their turf, he recruited, he talked about Bo, he unleashed the crazy.
And yet, slightly older me viewed it from afar, bemused but not invested, yet. We've seen this before, after all. Contrast this approach with what I imagine would have been my reaction to all of this as an 18-year-old, or a Michigan sophomore, or even someone a year out of Ann Arbor, and the gulf is vast.
I would have once yelled upon hearing the news of the Harbaugh hire, shared every story I read about his antics, texted and called friends and family to talk about the man who had returned.
Just the other week, I explained to someone how I thought a 7-win season in 2015 is a reasonable expectation, as if I was in a lukewarm conversation about mutual funds or a plant-based diet low in cholesterol or the hopes of an NFL franchise. They could lose to Minnesota, you know. Utah is assuredly a loss, I posited. The gap is too wide between Michigan and the teams at the top, Michigan State and Ohio State.
Let's wait until next year, I thought. But then next year, the linebackers are gone. And next year, the mutual fund of quarterbacks, Jake Rudock, is gone, leaving a yet-unproven Shane Morris and a parade of even-less-unproven young signal callers. And next year, Michigan has to travel to both East Lansing and Columbus. Worries, all of them.
It seems as if life, and its worries, have infiltrated the safe space that has always been college football. Even when it isn't safe (see: 2014 Michigan football, or, really, almost anything from the past eight years), it was something to be excited about, to invest in and not care about the repercussions.
The beginning of each season was once like what I imagine the moment when a first-time skydiver steps to the edge, the infinite air ahead and below and above. But, over time, it became something else: something to be approached reasonably, with caution, with care.
This, it goes without saying, is a regrettable development.
Sometimes, it takes something small to kick you out of something like that, to climb out of a place where caution and reason exert their influence, like a 3-yard hitch on 3rd and 5.
The other day, I read this story about Harbaugh's reaction to a phone call from Michael Jordan. As a native of Illinois, something clicked. Here was Harbaugh, revered by many to be the man destined to return Michigan to a prior state, reacting with awe to a call from -- and I unabashedly say this, despite the aforementioned pseudo-cynicism -- MJ, a hero of my childhood.
"Come onnn, who is this?" he said.
I don't know if that transcription is an embellishment, or a reflection of the conversation. Did he really say "onnn," like someone truly awestruck, like, for example, me if I received an unexpected phone call (a redundant phrase, of course) from Michael Jordan?
Did he? You might think this a splitting hair, a negligible footnote.
It matters, not because of its inherent truth or untruth, but because its truth or untruth doesn't matter.
And with that realization, as I've come to it now, I realize that I'm ready for football. I'm ready for the weekly parade: the afterglow of the previous game extending to Monday and Tuesday, the beginnings of mental preparation on Wednesday and Thursday, the imminence of Friday, and the anguish and exaltation of Saturday morning.
Harbaugh was awed, I believe, because, quite simply, I think that he was. I really do. It fits with the picture of him as a person, simultaneously aware and unaware of his station in the football universe. It's an agreeable thought, a simple one.
In the summer of Harbaugh, with the man preparing to take his first Michigan team into a season -- how weird is that to type, even now -- he took the time to reflect on a summer phone call with Michael Jordan.
Come onnn. Jim Harbaugh, coaching Michigan?
It's real. No, really.
In a rush, it's all coming into picture. The little human interest stories, the camp quotes, the discussions of his personal quirks, were all seemingly disparate dots, disconnected but amusing, like a standup comedian connecting on approximately two-thirds of his or her jokes. A good show, a spectacle, maybe even memorable.
But they hadn't formed up together, a picture of meaning.
I don't know how many games Michigan will win, but the picture, in these last few weeks, has started to become more clear. Michigan has a coach, a great coach, who has returned to the place of his youth, a place in which he won games and made declarations (guarantees, even).
Forget the football storylines and the personnel hand-wringing: that is a story to cling to, an idea worth investing in, like the idea of the Rich Rodriguez offense was worth investing in or the lovable yet stern persona of Brady Hoke once stood as a beacon of something more. But, of course, there's more to it than those vestiges of Michigan's recent past.
This, this is a story. A combination of proven excellence and quixotic wanderings of the mind. We are witnessing a homecoming, different than any other we've seen.
And if this sounds like a building cult of personality -- if you'll excuse one more intrusion from Cynical Fan -- well, I suppose it's too late for Cynical Fan to pump the brakes on that train. It's out of the station, screeching across the tracks from Salt Lake City to State College, leaving sparks in its wake like a continuous fireworks show, laughing metallically into the quiet heart of America, bombastically announcing its presence wherever it goes.
College football was never meant to be reasonable. It was never meant to be analyzed. It was born in a nebulous era when you got maybe one game on TV, or were able to huddle up to a radio, with the hope of hearing something worth remembering. It was born in an information void: you took what you could and filled in the gaps with mythology.
For a little while, I forgot that. Remembering that, I think, was the greatest victory of this offseason.
And this is the moment when I, the previously cynical, walk up to the edge in that college football skydiving aircraft.
What lies below? Who knows. A soft landing spot, maybe, or perhaps not.
But, you know, there's no story in the would-be skydiver who didn't skydive, who stayed in the plane and upon bumping down on a remote landing strip, drives home safe and sound.
It's 2015, the only 2015 season there will ever be. It's 2015, the only first-Jim-Harbaugh-season there will be. It's 2015, the time-space home of the only summer of Harbaugh there will ever be (there will be other summers, in which Harbaugh does Harbaugh things, but this is the only summer of Harbaugh). It's 2015, the only time this particular version of newness will ever be before us.
Forget the rest: that's the crux. That's all there is, and all there needs to be.
I'll probably write something longer before Saturday hits, but, for now, here are a few links from around the world of college football:
Wisconsin's depth chart is out, and there appears to have been some shuffling in the secondary. The starter at QB hasn't been officially announced, but, as I've guessed most of the summer, Joel Stave will likely get the nod. Kyle French will hold onto placekicking duties for the Badgers despite what seemed like a legitimate challenge at one point from Jack Russell, who is now injured. Also of note: UW has a linebacker named Conor O'Neill. I miss Ann Arbor.
NC State head coach Dave Doeren covers "Wagon Wheel." Given the level of angst over Darius Rucker's cover of the same song, I'd imagine many might not like this, but...hey. I have nothing snarky to say. I kind of like it.
Myerberg gets to Nebraska at No. 11 in his offseason countdown. The song remains the same in Lincoln: the Huskers will score more points than most teams, but can they stop anyone? More importantly, can they stop the run? Depending on what UCLA (minus Johnathan Franklin) and Southern Miss (62nd in rushing offense last season) bring to the table, that run defense might not get truly tested until November 2 against Northwestern.
Taylor Lewan clocks in at No. 2 in BTN's player ranking. Devin Gardner (No. 8) is the only other Wolverine on the list. You'd think Jeremy Gallon would make it on there, but, you knows, lists.
Speaking of Gardner...he's not a captain, but I think things will be all right. I realize mentioning "Chad Henne wasn't captain" is in the same family as "but Mike Hart was a 3-star," but there you go.
Soldier Field in the summer, when the inevitable 9-7/10-6 season is just an abstract speck on the horizon (Fouad Egbaria) Bears 17, Panthers 24
I used to care about preseason football very little. None of it matters, and players, coaches and fans are basically hoping and praying to make it through unscathed on the injury front. That would be an especially nice thing for the Bears, who have lost nickel corner Kelvin Hayden for the season, in addition to defensive lineman Turk McBride.
But, here we are on August 9, and I'm sitting in front of the TV to watch the Bears take on Cam Newton's Carolina Panthers. Perhaps living in the city of Chicago for the last year has augmented that "Bears football is near" ticker in my brain. In any case, this is a good opportunity to keep the football part of the brain working again. So, let's do that. It's been a long time since Dec. 30, when the Bears last took the field against the Lions, and it's always exciting to see what the new guys look like out there on the field.
Every player and team has something to play for every single season, but for the Bears and their endless list of 1-year contracts and other expiring deals (e.g. Jay Cutler), this one season could determine how the next three or four go in Chicago. Ideally, this wouldn't all be happening during the first year of a new head coach's tenure, but so it goes.
Anyway, the picture above notwithstanding, the Bears and Panthers took the field in Carolina tonight for the first glorified practice session of the season.
Things started off as you might expect. After giving up a first down, the Bears defense forced a punt on the next set of downs. Naturally, Jay Cutler, operating out of the shotgun, zinged an interception on the first offensive play of the game, intended for Alshon Jeffery. Cutler had time, but there seemed to be some miscommunication there; Cutler expected Jeffery to continue working to the inside. Jeffery stopped, and the throw was thrown well to his right and into the numbers of Panther corner Josh Norman. It's a basic mistake, but better to get these mistakes out now.
With a short field and a defensive pass interference, Cam Newton found Brandon LaFell for a short three-yard touchdown pass, putting the Panthers up 7-0. On the bright side, rookie Khaseem Greene made a nice play on second and goal, cutting through the wash to bring down DeAngelo Williams for a loss of two. On the not so bright side: Henry Melton, currently boasting the Bears' franchise tag, left the game after the first play with a concussion.
On Cutler's second drive, he was able to find Jeffery and Matt Forte for gains of 13 and five yards, respectively, but was forced to throw it away on third and six.
Also as you might expect, the Bears found their first points of the preseason, while, you guessed it, the defense was on the field. Second round pick Jon Bostic snuck in front of a pass intended for our old friend Greg Olsen, returning it 51 yards for a touchdown. Again, preseason caveats, but it's nice to see a high draft pick making plays right away. This has been said over and over again since Brian Urlacher announced his retirement, but the Bears linebacking corps will be a bit more athletic this season with the additions of Bostic (and even D.J. Williams, James Anderson and fellow rookie Khaseem Greene).
Cutler's third drive began auspiciously, with passes of 13 yards on a dump-off to Michael Bush after a nice step up in the pocket and a cool quick slant to Joe Anderson for 11. Unfortunately, J'Marcus Webb got beat to the outside by Charles Johnson on the next play, forcing Cutler to take the sack. The drive fizzled out two plays later. That would be it for Cutler on the night, finishing 6/8 for 58 yards and one interception.
The Bears defense came through once again early in the second quarter. On first and 10 from the Carolina 46, Zack Bowman picked off former Brown/Cardinal Derek Anderson. It was an awful, back-footed throw well short of the intended receiver. However, Isaiah Frey dropped a pick a few plays prior, so you can never take these plays for granted.
The Bears managed just a field goal with the short field, but Josh McCown did link up with Joe Anderson for a gain of 16 in the process.
The two teams then traded fumbles, first by Carolina Kenjon Barner (forced by Sherrick McManis), then from Chicago's Armando Allen. Carolina and Chicago were preseasoning like champions tonight.
Late in the quarter, the Bears defense gave up an 11-play, 81-yard drive, resulting in a Barner touchdown from five yards out. The Bears went into the half down 14-10, with some notable efforts from the rookie linebackers and wide receiver Joe Anderson.
There's not much use discussing the second half, but some miscellaneous points:
More Yakety Sax in the second half: Matt Blanchard took a big sack in the first drive of the third quarter, and Jimmy Clausen and Barner failed to execute the hand-off, resulting in yet another fumble on the night (recovered by Chicago's Zach Minter).
On the Bears' next drive, Blanchard tossed an interception, intended for Fendi Onobun, which Josh Norman returned 60 yards for six. Speaking of Onobun, he dropped a sure touchdown in the back corner of the end zone in the second quarter, and Jim Miller indicated that Onobun deserved some blame for this turnover as well. But, at this point who knows what's a miscommunication, what's a bad throw and what's just poor route running.
Blanchard went 4/5 for 32 yards on his next drive, but took a drive-killing sack on third and four.
Early in the fourth, Marquess Wilson turned on the afterburners, taking an intermediate reception and zooming down the left sideline for a 58-yard gain.
So, there you have it. Pick sixes and fumbles on both sides, mixed in with concentrated flashes of young talent. In other words: welcome to preseason NFL football. Everyone will be talking about Cutler and the offense, but I will look forward to watching Greene and Bostic continue to progress throughout these next three games.
The Bears hit Soldier Field next Thursday at 7 p.m. CDT for a meeting with the San Diego Chargers.
Brief note: I will attempt ("attempt" being the key word) to have these preview posts up on Friday each week around lunchtime. The grad school thing may prevent that from happening, but we'll see how it goes. I should be good to go for about the first month...after that, things might get a little dicier. The Exposition
I spent my high school years in Alabama, coinciding exactly with the Mike Shula era. This was a few months after the Mike Price fiasco, not to mention Dennis Franchione's controversial departure for Texas A&M a few months before that. Add NCAA sanctions to the mix and a new head coach in Shula* (who had been a career NFL guy to that point, and never a head coach), and you could say that things were not turning up Milhouse.
At the same time, my high school years as a Michigan fan were about as good as you could ask of your program within a 4-year window. John Navarre went out and won a Big Ten championship in 2003 to spite his squawking detractors, and Chad Henne rode piggybacked on Braylon Edwards's back in 2004 en route to another one. The 2005 season, "The Year of Infinite Pain", according to Brian, was a paper cut compared to the total system breakdown that was the Rich Rodriguez era. My final season as a high schooler was the 2006 season, of which I don't need to tell you about.
Michigan going 0-4 in its bowl games during that time put a bit of a damper on things, but it was an all around great time to be a Michigan fan, especially one living in Alabama. In retrospect, it seems almost unthinkable for Alabama to have a 4-win season and two 6-win seasons in a 4-year span, but it happened between 2003 and 2006.
Enter Nick Saban, and that's enough of that whole losing and not being mistake-free cybernetic organisms thing. Say what you will about oversigning, but there is no denying that Saban is one of the best defensive minds in the game. In five seasons, Saban has compiled a 55-12 record; half of those losses came in his first season. Simply put, Alabama has been the best team in the country since Saban arrived in Tuscaloosa.
Needless to say, in nine years, a whole lot has changed; this isn't 2003, anymore.
*Amusingly, he is now the QB coach for the Carolina Panthers, coaching one Cam Newton. Life has a funny way of working out sometimes.
Michigan Offense vs. Alabama Defense A note: I started writing this on Tuesday. I am assuming that Toussaint is not going to play, for what it's worth. The same goes for Frank Clark.
It's hard to decide which Michigan unit has a better chance of getting anything done in this game. As I detailed throughout the summer, this Alabama team is about as talented and athletic as you would expect. So, what's the catch? There is a catch, right?
Maybe, maybe not. Ask any Alabama fan about their defense and they will talk to you about RELOADING and 5-star recruits everywhere and how this ain't 2010 (when Alabama had to replace a similar amount of premium defensive talent and then went on to have a "disappointing" 3-loss season). Well, most of it is in fact true. Alabama is talented, and at certain positions, they will rotate guys in and out with relative ease.
However, some Alabama fans are just being unreasonable. I'm sorry. That's not to say that Alabama's defense won't be good (keep in mind that that 2010 defense was still very good) because they absolutely will, or that a defense that is a cut or two below last year's wouldn't still hold Michigan to a relatively low point total.
The simple fact is, no, Alabama fans, your defense will not be as good as last year's was. Then again, last year's defense was historically good, not just good in the context of the 2011 season. Some slippage can be reasonably expected, especially when replacing 7 defensive starters. Yes, I do understand that some of the players replacing these guys have seen some game action (for example, starting corner Dee Milliner), but not all of these guys have gotten meaningful playing time. Adrian Hubbard at SLB, Quinton Dial (was a rotational type guy last year that will be a half-starter along with Ed Stinson at one end position), Deion Belue is a JUCO guy in his first season in Tuscaloosa and a starting corner, Vinnie Sunseri is a true sophomore who did play some last season but has enormous shoes to fill at strong safety, etc.
As you probably know by know, Nick Saban is an evil genius whose defenses run with Gradgrindian efficiency; it's going to be "hard times"** for Michigan indeed if the OL consistently lets rushers through en route to clean shots on Denard. That cannot happen, especially early on in the contest. Nick Saban's Alabama defenses are known for their base 3-4, but Alabama is a fairly "multiple" team. The will also likely throw the 4-3 at us, the 5-2 (with two "Jack"*** linebackers on the field at once), and passing downs have their own special wrinkles for nickle packages. Alabama will throw a lot of different things, and Borges has ostensibly does his homework on all of them. That said, being ready to combat and execute these defensive looks is another battle entirely. FWIW, here's a useful video of Saban explaining the basis for the "Star" and "Money" positions in Alabama's nickel and dime looks.
Some Crimson Tide defenders to focus on at each level of the defense: 6'4'' 320lb. seniorNG Jesse Williams (he's a position switcher moving over from end, although he did play nose in his JUCO days), 6'2'' 232 lb. junior CJ Mosley at ILB (he's not nominally a starter but he basically is based on how much he will actually play, especially against a spread spread-ish team like Michigan), and 6'0'' 215 sophomore strong saftey Vinnie Sunseri (son of a coach!). Mosley in particular is a player to pay attention to when he's on the field. He's not technically a starter, but he's probably Alabama's best linebacker, and he will be on the field in passing situations. He's also Alabama's fastest backer, so expect him to do a lot of this when Denard does dump it off:
Don't get me wrong, I love Vincent Smith, but I'm not sure he will be able to shake Mosley on the edge. However, I think a guy like Justice Hayes could do some damage in this capacity, although that is admittedly based purely on recruiting hype at this point.
If Michigan (i.e. Barnum+Omameh/Mealer) cannot contain the Balrog that is Jesse Williams from getting into the backfield or render him irrelevant by attacking the edges and taking our chances there, it's going to be a long, long day. Remember this picture?
With the pressure that Alabama is sure to bring with the Jack linebacker, bringing Sunseri down into the box, and all other sorts of defensive sorcery, things could very well look like the picture above. I think Denard would agree with me: that is not something we want to happen. Alabama has spent the last few weeks talking about how they're coming for Denard, and why wouldn't they? Unless propelled by magic (4th quarter of the ND game, the entire VT game), if you key on Denard and force him to pass, things probably get ugly. Obviously, that is easier said than done, since not every team has the pure talent to force Michigan's hand in that way. Alabama, like Michigan State, certainly does.
Analogy time! Hoke:defensive line coaching::Nick Saban:defensive backs. Saban and DC Kirby Smart have supreme confidence in their DBs, which is not unreasonable given the talent they have at their disposal and the fact that Saban might be the best and most meticulous teacher of DB technique in the country. It's his special pet project amongst all other coaching duties, much like the DL is to Hoke.
A perfect example of this confidence is the Cover 1 Robber defense, which Chris Brown of Smart Football discussed in his book released earlier this summer (and summarized excellently by this MGoBlog diary). Alabama will put its corners in man coverage with regularity, and this decision is only strengthened by the fact that Michigan's top two receivers are Roy Roundtree and Jeremy Gallon. No offense to either player, but I imagine that neither exactly strikes fear in Saban's robot ersatz heart.
Want to see the Cover 1 Robber in action? You have seen it before, and I apologize in advance for this. If you'll remember, I recently linked to this excellent post from The Only Colors on the now infamous Double A-Gap blitz. Therein, a discussion of one variant, the Cover 1 Robber, was explained in detail. Guess which play that was:
As surprisingly complicated and variegated as that particular blitz is, you can be sure that Alabama has many like this one lined up and ready to go. Denard et al need to have their hot route cues down pat, or the above will very likely occur at some point.
I don't think that Michigan will have much success attacking the middle with the ground game...at least early on. Alabama stuffed everyone, even LSU's paleolithic but effective power running game, and I think that we should expect different results. I don't think that Borges is foolish enough to do this, but if Michigan lines up in the I and attempts to run any sort of traditional power run, you can bet that thousands of Michigan fans will all be throwing up their hands in unison. Unless we're in a short yardage or goal line situation, Michigan cannot afford to waste precious plays by plugging away up the middle. This isn't the 1990s: lightning bolts will not rain down on your head if you don't run to set up the pass.
The problem with that is Michigan has Denard Robinson, who, aside from being a transcendent runner with a fantastic smile, has had some basic mechanical issues in the passing game, not mention trouble reading defenses and reacting to pressure. All of these things do sound like a recipe for disaster against a defense like Alabama's, but we have to assume that Denard has improved throughout the offseason. Playing like he did against Nebraska and Ohio State would be a start, but that's all it would be. The same gaping holes that were there against the Huskers and Buckeyes likely won't be there against Alabama, and if they are they will be closing up a little more quickly.
So, what are the options? Really, there aren't many that don't involve pinpoint execution and, quite frankly, not getting blown back at the point of attack. If either happen, it's over. An UTL-esque miracle is just not going to happen against this team.
**ELITIST REFERENCES PAWLLLL
***FYI, the JLB is basically the pass-rushing linebacker; last year, it was Courtney Upshaw. Michigan Defense vs. Alabama Offense
We've had a couple relatively surprising moves on the defensive side of the ball come to light in the last week. First, Quinton Washington will be playing at the nose position and starting. Next to him is William Campbell, who was going to be play nose until the coaches eventually came to the realization that Black at the 3-tech just wasn't going to work. As such, BWC to the 3-tech and Black back to WDE it is. We won't truly know what the two-deep is actually like until the games begin, but, for now, Black's move is one more obstacle between Mario Ojemudia having to take the field against an Alabama team with a Brobdingnagian offensive line.
Speaking of the offensive line: they are huge. I previewed this position group way back in early April, and not much has changed (actually, nothing has). If you didn't already know, 2011 All-American LT Barrett Jones made the move to center to make room for Cyrus Kouandjio, which speaks to how highly the coaches think of the latter. This is the second move that Jones has mode (he was once a guard), so while position switches are often uncomfortable propositions, Jones has always been lauded as a smart guy and should be more than alright.
Alabama has a bevy of talented tailbacks and wide receivers. Like the secondary and linebackers, experience is the primary issue with most of these guys, although they are by no means completely green. None of these guys are Trent Richardson or Julio Jones, but they might not need to be if the ground game has worn Michigan down as I'm sure Alabama is intending to do.
You probably know about Eddie Lacy by now. He was Alabama's #3 in 2010, Richardson's backup last season, and should be the feature back this season. A pesky injury kept him out of most of spring ball, IIRC (including the A-Day scrimmage), and has still seemed to be banged up as recently as the last week or two. I linked to a video of him doing a short drill with a fairly significant amount of tape on his ankle, which may or may not mean anything.
Saban has used the words "day-to-day", and the fact that he'd be "ready to go in 5 or 6 days"...he said this on August 18th. The more time that passes, the more I get the feeling that he won't be 100% on 9/1. If that is the case, our old friend RS freshman Dee Hart and true freshman TJ Yeldon become the next guys in line. Jalston Fowler, Alabama's #3 last year and the Tide's top mooseback, appears to have made the move to H-back, where walk-on Kelly Johnson has won the starting role in what can be considered the shocker of fall camp (it hasn't been that exciting of a fall camp). Johnson has big shoes to fill, as the H-back is a very important player in Alabama's offense, which should basically stay the same despite the hiring of former Washington OC Doug Nussmeier (last year's OC, Jim McElwain, departed for the Colorado State head coaching job). Brad Smelley was a big time target for McCarron last season on key third downs (he was Alabama's second-most productive receiver in 2011). It's unreasonable to expect Johnson to be as good as Smelley, but he did win the starting nod, so he must be doing something right.
At receiver, Alabama appears to be rolling with 6'0'' 185 sophomore DeAndrew White and 6'2'' 195 junior Kevin Norwood at the "X" and "Z" positions, with 5'11'' 185 sophomore Christion Jones taking the "H" receiver position (i.e. the slot). I was somewhat surprised to see White win the starting over Kenny Bell, Alabama's leading returning receiver, but I'm not sure that it matters much. Bell is a physical, athletic receiver, and McCarron looked to him downfield on occasion last year. AJ and Bell hooked up for a 39-yard and 41-yard TD against Tennessee and Auburn (a flea flicker, FWIW) respectively. Fast forward to 0:35 in the video below to see this in action.
Anywho, Alabama has more, but to continue to name them would be overkill. Here's the thing. Alabama's offense is a little more complicated than it may seem, but in the end this game will be all about those things that make us roll our eyes when guys like Merill Hoge talk about them: toughness, resilience, the ability to bend but not break, completely unironic GRIT. If Michigan is going to get this done, it probably won't be pretty. Alabama will pick up yards on the ground and, inevitably, through the air when Mattison is forced to bring increasingly crazier and riskier blitzes. However, if Michigan can hunker down once Alabama cross the M's 30, not unlike the Sugar Bowl, then I'm saying there's a chance.
I mentioned this back when I took a look at Alabama's quarterbacks and I'll say it again: McCarron is a better player than many Michigan fans are probably giving him credit for. He's a solid player, and yeah, sure, having that team around him certainly helps. However, all you need to do to realize that being a QB for such a team is not so easy is to recall LSU's 2011 season. The quarterbacking during the national title game was so rough that folks with no stake in the result of the game (me, for example) began to plead all over the Internet for Les Miles to PUT IN THE OTHER GUY, a guy who is often known as Jarrett "Pick 6" Lee.
I mentioned that moving QW to nose and Black back to WDE was kind of like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic, but the more thought I give this configuration, the more I like it. That is 600+ pounds (607 according to MGoBlog's Fall Roster Overanalysis) of human being there in the middle. Will it be enough against an interior trio of Chance Warmack, Barrett Jones, and Anthony Steen? Maybe not, but I like Michigan's chances much better with QW than Black.
As for the ends, there was once a point when I was fairly optimistic about this group. Now, not so much. I'm having visions in my head of Beyer and Roh getting handled by Fluker and Kouandjio in the ground game and getting stonewalled in the pass rush, and who knows what kind of player Black will be after adding weight and spending so much practice time on the inside. At this point, any sort of pass rush that Michigan can get from the these guys is gravy, which is a pretty ominous thing to have to say.
With that said, things are rosier in the back 7 for Michigan. As far as tight ends go, Michael Williams is Alabama's starter. He doesn't seem to be anything extraordinary, but he is by no means a liability or anything. He was a red zone target against Penn State last season (and also the recipient of a fake field goal TD pass that Ace linked to here).
Otherwise, I feel pretty confident that Michigan's 'backers will match up in coverage. The only catch is the Williams is 6'6'' and a biscuit under 270. OF COURSE HE IS. When Alabama has Williams and an H-back in the game, odds are you are about to get smashed in the face. He's a blocker and possible red zone guy...basically, what we all hope AJ Williams will one day become.
I feel confident enough in Michigan's safeties not giving up the dreaded big play for the first half or so. But...after that, especially if Alabama has racked up enough yardage that plays like the above dart to Bell can happen? That is the moment that the game is over.
What Needs to Happen, Fergodsakes
On defense:
Say it with me now: bend but don't break.I'm sure Mattison has some tricks up his sleeve, but tricks can only do so much when the other team is simply bigger and faster. Michigan is not going to win the stat sheet battle. If Mattison's defense gives up 500 yards and manages to hold Alabama under 31, there is hope. Make them kick field goals (see: 2011 LSU game, Part 1).
Countess and Floyd. Please be in pre-OSU/VT form. Alabama has quite a few talented players at receiver, but I'm not really convinced that there is a star among them (certainly not a Julio type). This goes without saying, but given the probably lack of a front four pass rush, JT and Blake will be on an island more fairly often. The good news is that, after a year of Mattison's diabolical blitzes and aggressiveness verging on over-aggressiveness, they're probably up to the challenge.
Quinton and William. To put it simply, if these two look like they're on skates, there is simply no hope. Again, you can only scheme and mitigate your weaknesses so much. As Saturday approaches, I've become increasingly confident that they'll be able to hold up at least adequately; whether the linebackers can shed Warmack and Steen and tackle the ball carrier--whether an all-around talent like Lacy or a darty sort like Hart--is another story entirely. For the record, I'm fairly confident that Demens, Morgan, and Ryan will do a decent job. Jake Ryan, after QW and BWC, might be the most important player on Michigan's entire team in this game.
On offense:
No turnovers please. If Michigan turns the ball over, chances are a win is not happening. The margin for error is razor thin.
Get the passing game going early. My nightmare is that Michigan comes out, plugs away on the ground, fails miserably and then sees everything spiral out of control as Michigan tries to pass its way back in the game with a guy like Denard. The slant will be there, and Borges will call upon that old standby, the throwback screen to Gallon to start pushing the Alabama linebackers and safeties away from the LOS. Naturally, if that happens, that's where Denard goes to work. If there's 9 in the box, forget about it
Devin Gardner. The wild card-iest wild card who ever wild card'd. If he is a legitimate force at receiver, that could change everything. To be quite honest, after Milliner, the rest of Alabama's corners don't impress me as much as Alabama's new linebackers do. Also, I need to see Sunseri and Clinton-Dix in action before I deem them the second coming of Ronnie Lott. I think that Michigan might get some mileage out of the so called "QB Oh Noes" play, as Brian calls it, what with Sunseri looking to be an involved and aggressive player in the run game. Borges needs to scheme against that position.
Attack the edge, quickly. Yes, SEC speed and all that, but I think that it's just about a waste of time to try (past a token effort) to develop a between-the-tackles running game, at least in the first quarter or so. Michigan needs to be creative in its ground game, kind of like it was against Ohio State last November. Get numbers going to the edges and let's see how those pseudo-newbies at linebacker handle Denard. WR end arounds. Denard jet sweeps.
Trick plays. Let's see 'em. Seriously, Al. 2008 Capital One Bowl Redux, this needs to be.
Predictions of Negligible Worth
Making these sorts of predictions, especially for a game like this, is a torturous thing. A prediction is not really one data point that you pluck out of thin air. It's a deliberate whittling down of all results from a giant marble slab of possibility. My point: could I see everything going perfectly, Alabama having a bad day, and Michigan eeking out an incredibly ugly yet satisfying Sugar Bowl-esque win? Yes, I honestly can. Alabama is talented, and it speaks to the state of things that Michigan is such an underdog in spite of all the big name players that Alabama lost. In two or three years, this game will be an even contest going in, but we're not quite there yet. Still, this is a good Michigan team, and not one that should be underestimated.
With that said, too many things have to go well for Michigan to win this game. Michigan will probably need to have a turnover margin of at least +2. How likely is this? If this game is played ten times, Michigan probably has everything fall into place maybe once. That's what it is. We're banking on that one, that unlikely scenario, the "Jareth Glanda catching a pass" of games.
As much as it pains me to say it, I just can't make that prediction. To be able to stick it to the reigning national champs, the team that I had to spend four years hearing about as a high schooler, would be something beyond tremendous, if such a superlative even existed.
In the end, Michigan keeps it close for the first half, but without Toussaint, Michigan just won't have enough juice to keep enough drives going to make it a game. Even with Fitz, I'm not sure that Michigan has enough. It won't be pretty, but it won't be an outright blowout. At the same time, I don't think it will necessarily be "close." Michigan is a 13.5 point underdog, which, sadly, is just about right.
Consider the bar raised. That's not the case with Michigan, the team I like least compared to its lofty rankings elsewhere, in large part because of the schedule: The Wolverines open up Saturday as double-digit underdogs to Alabama, which is only the first and most notable example of how this year's schedule figures to be much harsher on Michigan than last year's. The other obvious example is at the end of the schedule, against a dramatically improved Ohio State outfit in Columbus, which figures to look nothing like the beleaguered Buckeyes that came to Ann Arbor last November; in between, two of the Wolverines' toughest home wins in 2011, over Notre Dame and Nebraska, are both road games in 2012. For a team that may have played a little bit above its head last year to begin with, another 10-win regular season would be a feat.
Nothing too controversial here. I disagree with he notion that Michigan played "above its head", unless he means that Michigan was simply lucky, which they were against ND and VT. I agree with that, but I don't see any other instances of Michigan playing "above" their heads, especially since deciding where some's "head" is in this context is a subjective thing. Michigan smashed its way to 8 wins then made a trip to the luck store against ND and VT. Add in a close win against OSU and two rough losses and that just sounds like a team that significantly raised its baseline level of play and got lucky a couple of times.
Can they do it again? That is the question.
--Alabama released its depth chart yesterday. Nothing is too surprising there, although there are three things that ended up differing from what I wrote about Alabama's personnel in my preview posts:
Kelly Johnson, a walk-on, got the starting nod at the H-back position. I honestly didn't know who he was before this week. That could either be a good or a bad thing re: the quality of Alabama's H-back, but we'll see.
DeAndrew White won a starting role at wideout. I figured that Kenny Bell would surely be a starter considering that he is Alabama's leading returning receiver, but I guess not. It's White, a a redshirt sophomore who made 2 starts last season, Kevin Norwood (who, if you'll remember, came up big in the national title game), and slot Christion Jones. In the end, though, the starter designation is not that important. Alabama will rotate these four players, and probably one or two others as well.
Ed Stinson won the end spot opposite from Damion Square. Stinson was a former "Jack" LB, for what it's worth. He was in a battle with Quinton Dial, a JUCO guy, for the spot. Again, this is another "doesn't really matter" designation, as the indication is that both of these guys might as well be called starters.
Hello, Internet. I am Fouad Egbaria, a Michigan grad ('11) and recent graduate of the MSJ program at Northwestern's Medill School of Journalism. This is a blog that attempts to analyze the highs and lows of Michigan football and basketball; I'm just trying to capture the spirit of the thing. I will also write about general Big Ten news, as well as Chicago professional sports (from time to time).
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