Alabama Preview: Banking On The One

Brief note: I will attempt ("attempt" being the key word) to have these preview posts up on Friday each week around lunchtime. The grad school thing may prevent that from happening, but we'll see how it goes. I should be good to go for about the first month...after that, things might get a little dicier. 

The Exposition

Time: 8 ET, ABC
Place: Cowboys Stadium--Arlington, TX
Line: Alabama -13.5
Mood: !!!!!!!+unceasing anxiety

I spent my high school years in Alabama, coinciding exactly with the Mike Shula era. This was a few months after the Mike Price fiasco, not to mention Dennis Franchione's controversial departure for Texas A&M a few months before that. Add NCAA sanctions to the mix and a new head coach in Shula* (who had been a career NFL guy to that point, and never a head coach), and you could say that things were not turning up Milhouse.

At the same time, my high school years as a Michigan fan were about as good as you could ask of your program within a 4-year window. John Navarre went out and won a Big Ten championship in 2003 to spite his squawking detractors, and Chad Henne rode piggybacked on Braylon Edwards's back in 2004 en route to another one. The 2005 season, "The Year of Infinite Pain", according to Brian, was a paper cut compared to the total system breakdown that was the Rich Rodriguez era. My final season as a high schooler was the 2006 season, of which I don't need to tell you about.

Michigan going 0-4 in its bowl games during that time put a bit of a damper on things, but it was an all around great time to be a Michigan fan, especially one living in Alabama. In retrospect, it seems almost unthinkable for Alabama to have a 4-win season and two 6-win seasons in a 4-year span, but it happened between 2003 and 2006.

Enter Nick Saban, and that's enough of that whole losing and not being mistake-free cybernetic organisms thing. Say what you will about oversigning, but there is no denying that Saban is one of the best defensive minds in the game. In five seasons, Saban has compiled a 55-12 record; half of those losses came in his first season. Simply put, Alabama has been the best team in the country since Saban arrived in Tuscaloosa.

Needless to say, in nine years, a whole lot has changed; this isn't 2003, anymore.

*Amusingly, he is now the QB coach for the Carolina Panthers, coaching one Cam Newton. Life has a funny way of working out sometimes.

Michigan Offense vs. Alabama Defense 
A note: I started writing this on Tuesday. I am assuming that Toussaint is not going to play, for what it's worth. The same goes for Frank Clark. 

It's hard to decide which Michigan unit has a better chance of getting anything done in this game. As I detailed throughout the summer, this Alabama team is about as talented and athletic as you would expect. So, what's the catch? There is a catch, right?

Maybe, maybe not. Ask any Alabama fan about their defense and they will talk to you about RELOADING and 5-star recruits everywhere and how this ain't 2010 (when Alabama had to replace a similar amount of premium defensive talent and then went on to have a "disappointing" 3-loss season). Well, most of it is in fact true. Alabama is talented, and at certain positions, they will rotate guys in and out with relative ease.

However, some Alabama fans are just being unreasonable. I'm sorry. That's not to say that Alabama's defense won't be good (keep in mind that that 2010 defense was still very good) because they absolutely will, or that a defense that is a cut or two below last year's wouldn't still hold Michigan to a relatively low point total.

The simple fact is, no, Alabama fans, your defense will not be as good as last year's was. Then again, last year's defense was historically good, not just good in the context of the 2011 season. Some slippage can be reasonably expected, especially when replacing 7 defensive starters. Yes, I do understand that some of the players replacing these guys have seen some game action (for example, starting corner Dee Milliner), but not all of these guys have gotten meaningful playing time. Adrian Hubbard at SLB, Quinton Dial (was a rotational type guy last year that will be a half-starter along with Ed Stinson at one end position), Deion Belue is a JUCO guy in his first season in Tuscaloosa and a starting corner, Vinnie Sunseri is a true sophomore who did play some last season but has enormous shoes to fill at strong safety, etc.

As you probably know by know, Nick Saban is an evil genius whose defenses run with Gradgrindian efficiency; it's going to be "hard times"** for Michigan indeed if the OL consistently lets rushers through en route to clean shots on Denard. That cannot happen, especially early on in the contest. Nick Saban's Alabama defenses are known for their base 3-4, but Alabama is a fairly "multiple" team. The will also likely throw the 4-3 at us, the 5-2 (with two "Jack"*** linebackers on the field at once), and passing downs have their own special wrinkles for nickle packages. Alabama will throw a lot of different things, and Borges has ostensibly does his homework on all of them. That said, being ready to combat and execute these defensive looks is another battle entirely. FWIW, here's a useful video of Saban explaining the basis for the "Star" and "Money" positions in Alabama's nickel and dime looks.

Some Crimson Tide defenders to focus on at each level of the defense: 6'4'' 320 lb. senior NG Jesse Williams (he's a position switcher moving over from end, although he did play nose in his JUCO days), 6'2'' 232 lb. junior CJ Mosley at ILB (he's not nominally a starter but he basically is based on how much he will actually play, especially against a spread spread-ish team like Michigan), and 6'0'' 215 sophomore strong saftey Vinnie Sunseri (son of a coach!). Mosley in particular is a player to pay attention to when he's on the field. He's not technically a starter, but he's probably Alabama's best linebacker, and he will be on the field in passing situations. He's also Alabama's fastest backer, so expect him to do a lot of this when Denard does dump it off:

Don't get me wrong, I love Vincent Smith, but I'm not sure he will be able to shake Mosley on the edge. However, I think a guy like Justice Hayes could do some damage in this capacity, although that is admittedly based purely on recruiting hype at this point.

If Michigan (i.e. Barnum+Omameh/Mealer) cannot contain the Balrog that is Jesse Williams from getting into the backfield or render him irrelevant by attacking the edges and taking our chances there, it's going to be a long, long day. Remember this picture?

With the pressure that Alabama is sure to bring with the Jack linebacker, bringing Sunseri down into the box, and all other sorts of defensive sorcery, things could very well look like the picture above. I think Denard would agree with me: that is not something we want to happen. Alabama has spent the last few weeks talking about how they're coming for Denard, and why wouldn't they? Unless propelled by magic (4th quarter of the ND game, the entire VT game), if you key on Denard and force him to pass, things probably get ugly. Obviously, that is easier said than done, since not every team has the pure talent to force Michigan's hand in that way. Alabama, like Michigan State, certainly does.

Analogy time! Hoke:defensive line coaching::Nick Saban:defensive backs. Saban and DC Kirby Smart have supreme confidence in their DBs, which is not unreasonable given the talent they have at their disposal and the fact that Saban might be the best and most meticulous teacher of DB technique in the country. It's his special pet project amongst all other coaching duties, much like the DL is to Hoke.

A perfect example of this confidence is the Cover 1 Robber defense, which Chris Brown of Smart Football discussed in his book released earlier this summer (and summarized excellently by this MGoBlog diary). Alabama will put its corners in man coverage with regularity, and this decision is only strengthened by the fact that Michigan's top two receivers are Roy Roundtree and Jeremy Gallon. No offense to either player, but I imagine that neither exactly strikes fear in Saban's robot ersatz heart.

Want to see the Cover 1 Robber in action? You have seen it before, and I apologize in advance for this. If you'll remember, I recently linked to this excellent post from The Only Colors on the now infamous Double A-Gap blitz. Therein, a discussion of one variant, the Cover 1 Robber, was explained in detail. Guess which play that was:

As surprisingly complicated and variegated as that particular blitz is, you can be sure that Alabama has many like this one lined up and ready to go. Denard et al need to have their hot route cues down pat, or the above will very likely occur at some point.

I don't think that Michigan will have much success attacking the middle with the ground game...at least early on. Alabama stuffed everyone, even LSU's paleolithic but effective power running game, and I think that we should expect different results. I don't think that Borges is foolish enough to do this, but if Michigan lines up in the I and attempts to run any sort of traditional power run, you can bet that thousands of Michigan fans will all be throwing up their hands in unison. Unless we're in a short yardage or goal line situation, Michigan cannot afford to waste precious plays by plugging away up the middle. This isn't the 1990s: lightning bolts will not rain down on your head if you don't run to set up the pass.

The problem with that is Michigan has Denard Robinson, who, aside from being a transcendent runner with a fantastic smile, has had some basic mechanical issues in the passing game, not mention trouble reading defenses and reacting to pressure. All of these things do sound like a recipe for disaster against a defense like Alabama's, but we have to assume that Denard has improved throughout the offseason. Playing like he did against Nebraska and Ohio State would be a start, but that's all it would be. The same gaping holes that were there against the Huskers and Buckeyes likely won't be there against Alabama, and if they are they will be closing up a little more quickly.

So, what are the options? Really, there aren't many that don't involve pinpoint execution and, quite frankly, not getting blown back at the point of attack. If either happen, it's over. An UTL-esque miracle is just not going to happen against this team.

**ELITIST REFERENCES PAWLLLL
***FYI, the JLB is basically the pass-rushing linebacker; last year, it was Courtney Upshaw.

Michigan Defense vs. Alabama Offense 

We've had a couple relatively surprising moves on the defensive side of the ball come to light in the last week. First, Quinton Washington will be playing at the nose position and starting. Next to him is William Campbell, who was going to be play nose until the coaches eventually came to the realization that Black at the 3-tech just wasn't going to work. As such, BWC to the 3-tech and Black back to WDE it is. We won't truly know what the two-deep is actually like until the games begin, but, for now, Black's move is one more obstacle between Mario Ojemudia having to take the field against an Alabama team with a Brobdingnagian offensive line.

Speaking of the offensive line: they are huge. I previewed this position group way back in early April, and not much has changed (actually, nothing has). If you didn't already know, 2011 All-American LT Barrett Jones made the move to center to make room for Cyrus Kouandjio, which speaks to how highly the coaches think of the latter. This is the second move that Jones has mode (he was once a guard), so while position switches are often uncomfortable propositions, Jones has always been lauded as a smart guy and should be more than alright.

Alabama has a bevy of talented tailbacks and wide receivers. Like the secondary and linebackers, experience is the primary issue with most of these guys, although they are by no means completely green. None of these guys are Trent Richardson or Julio Jones, but they might not need to be if the ground game has worn Michigan down as I'm sure Alabama is intending to do.

You probably know about Eddie Lacy by now. He was Alabama's #3 in 2010, Richardson's backup last season, and should be the feature back this season. A pesky injury kept him out of most of spring ball, IIRC (including the A-Day scrimmage), and has still seemed to be banged up as recently as the last week or two. I linked to a video of him doing a short drill with a fairly significant amount of tape on his ankle, which may or may not mean anything.

Saban has used the words "day-to-day", and the fact that he'd be "ready to go in 5 or 6 days"...he said this on August 18th. The more time that passes, the more I get the feeling that he won't be 100% on 9/1. If that is the case, our old friend RS freshman Dee Hart and true freshman TJ Yeldon become the next guys in line. Jalston Fowler, Alabama's #3 last year and the Tide's top mooseback, appears to have made the move to H-back, where walk-on Kelly Johnson has won the starting role in what can be considered the shocker of fall camp (it hasn't been that exciting of a fall camp). Johnson has big shoes to fill, as the H-back is a very important player in Alabama's offense, which should basically stay the same despite the hiring of former Washington OC Doug Nussmeier (last year's OC, Jim McElwain, departed for the Colorado State head coaching job). Brad Smelley was a big time target for McCarron last season on key third downs (he was Alabama's second-most productive receiver in 2011). It's unreasonable to expect Johnson to be as good as Smelley, but he did win the starting nod, so he must be doing something right.

At receiver, Alabama appears to be rolling with 6'0'' 185 sophomore DeAndrew White and 6'2'' 195 junior Kevin Norwood at the "X" and "Z" positions, with 5'11'' 185 sophomore Christion Jones taking the "H" receiver position (i.e. the slot). I was somewhat surprised to see White win the starting over Kenny Bell, Alabama's leading returning receiver, but I'm not sure that it matters much. Bell is a physical, athletic receiver, and McCarron looked to him downfield on occasion last year. AJ and Bell hooked up for a 39-yard and 41-yard TD against Tennessee and Auburn (a flea flicker, FWIW) respectively. Fast forward to 0:35 in the video below to see this in action.

Anywho, Alabama has more, but to continue to name them would be overkill. Here's the thing. Alabama's offense is a little more complicated than it may seem, but in the end this game will be all about those things that make us roll our eyes when guys like Merill Hoge talk about them: toughness, resilience, the ability to bend but not break, completely unironic GRIT. If Michigan is going to get this done, it probably won't be pretty. Alabama will pick up yards on the ground and, inevitably, through the air when Mattison is forced to bring increasingly crazier and riskier blitzes. However, if Michigan can hunker down once Alabama cross the M's 30, not unlike the Sugar Bowl, then I'm saying there's a chance.

I mentioned this back when I took a look at Alabama's quarterbacks and I'll say it again: McCarron is a better player than many Michigan fans are probably giving him credit for. He's a solid player, and yeah, sure, having that team around him certainly helps. However, all you need to do to realize that being a QB for such a team is not so easy is to recall LSU's 2011 season. The quarterbacking during the national title game was so rough that folks with no stake in the result of the game (me, for example) began to plead all over the Internet for Les Miles to PUT IN THE OTHER GUY, a guy who is often known as Jarrett "Pick 6" Lee.

I mentioned that moving QW to nose and Black back to WDE was kind of like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic, but the more thought I give this configuration, the more I like it. That is 600+ pounds (607 according to MGoBlog's Fall Roster Overanalysis) of human being there in the middle. Will it be enough against an interior trio of Chance Warmack, Barrett Jones, and Anthony Steen? Maybe not, but I like Michigan's chances much better with QW than Black.

As for the ends, there was once a point when I was fairly optimistic about this group. Now, not so much. I'm having visions in my head of Beyer and Roh getting handled by Fluker and Kouandjio in the ground game and getting stonewalled in the pass rush, and who knows what kind of player Black will be after adding weight and spending so much practice time on the inside. At this point, any sort of pass rush that Michigan can get from the these guys is gravy, which is a pretty ominous thing to have to say.

With that said, things are rosier in the back 7 for Michigan. As far as tight ends go, Michael Williams is Alabama's starter. He doesn't seem to be anything extraordinary, but he is by no means a liability or anything. He was a red zone target against Penn State last season (and also the recipient of a fake field goal TD pass that Ace linked to here).

Otherwise, I feel pretty confident that Michigan's 'backers will match up in coverage. The only catch is the Williams is 6'6'' and a biscuit under 270. OF COURSE HE IS. When Alabama has Williams and an H-back in the game, odds are you are about to get smashed in the face. He's a blocker and possible red zone guy...basically, what we all hope AJ Williams will one day become.

I feel confident enough in Michigan's safeties not giving up the dreaded big play for the first half or so. But...after that, especially if Alabama has racked up enough yardage that plays like the above dart to Bell can happen? That is the moment that the game is over.

What Needs to Happen, Fergodsakes
On defense:

• Say it with me now: bend but don't break. I'm sure Mattison has some tricks up his sleeve, but tricks can only do so much when the other team is simply bigger and faster. Michigan is not going to win the stat sheet battle. If Mattison's defense gives up 500 yards and manages to hold Alabama under 31, there is hope. Make them kick field goals (see: 2011 LSU game, Part 1). 
• Countess and Floyd. Please be in pre-OSU/VT form. Alabama has quite a few talented players at receiver, but I'm not really convinced that there is a star among them (certainly not a Julio type). This goes without saying, but given the probably lack of a front four pass rush, JT and Blake will be on an island more fairly often. The good news is that, after a year of Mattison's diabolical blitzes and aggressiveness verging on over-aggressiveness, they're probably up to the challenge. 
• Quinton and William. To put it simply, if these two look like they're on skates, there is simply no hope. Again, you can only scheme and mitigate your weaknesses so much. As Saturday approaches, I've become increasingly confident that they'll be able to hold up at least adequately; whether the linebackers can shed Warmack and Steen and tackle the ball carrier--whether an all-around talent like Lacy or a darty sort like Hart--is another story entirely. For the record, I'm fairly confident that Demens, Morgan, and Ryan will do a decent job. Jake Ryan, after QW and BWC, might be the most important player on Michigan's entire team in this game. 

On offense: 

• No turnovers please. If Michigan turns the ball over, chances are a win is not happening. The margin for error is razor thin. 
• Get the passing game going early. My nightmare is that Michigan comes out, plugs away on the ground, fails miserably and then sees everything spiral out of control as Michigan tries to pass its way back in the game with a guy like Denard. The slant will be there, and Borges will call upon that old standby, the throwback screen to Gallon to start pushing the Alabama linebackers and safeties away from the LOS. Naturally, if that happens, that's where Denard goes to work. If there's 9 in the box, forget about it
• Devin Gardner. The wild card-iest wild card who ever wild card'd. If he is a legitimate force at receiver, that could change everything. To be quite honest, after Milliner, the rest of Alabama's corners don't impress me as much as Alabama's new linebackers do. Also, I need to see Sunseri and Clinton-Dix in action before I deem them the second coming of Ronnie Lott. I think that Michigan might get some mileage out of the so called "QB Oh Noes" play, as Brian calls it, what with Sunseri looking to be an involved and aggressive player in the run game. Borges needs to scheme against that position. 
• Attack the edge, quickly. Yes, SEC speed and all that, but I think that it's just about a waste of time to try (past a token effort) to develop a between-the-tackles running game, at least in the first quarter or so. Michigan needs to be creative in its ground game, kind of like it was against Ohio State last November. Get numbers going to the edges and let's see how those pseudo-newbies at linebacker handle Denard. WR end arounds. Denard jet sweeps. 
• Trick plays. Let's see 'em. Seriously, Al. 2008 Capital One Bowl Redux, this needs to be. 

Predictions of Negligible Worth 
Making these sorts of predictions, especially for a game like this, is a torturous thing. A prediction is not really one data point that you pluck out of thin air. It's a deliberate whittling down of all results from a giant marble slab of possibility. My point: could I see everything going perfectly, Alabama having a bad day, and Michigan eeking out an incredibly ugly yet satisfying Sugar Bowl-esque win? Yes, I honestly can. Alabama is talented, and it speaks to the state of things that Michigan is such an underdog in spite of all the big name players that Alabama lost. In two or three years, this game will be an even contest going in, but we're not quite there yet. Still, this is a good Michigan team, and not one that should be underestimated.

With that said, too many things have to go well for Michigan to win this game. Michigan will probably need to have a turnover margin of at least +2. How likely is this? If this game is played ten times, Michigan probably has everything fall into place maybe once. That's what it is. We're banking on that one, that unlikely scenario, the "Jareth Glanda catching a pass" of games.

As much as it pains me to say it, I just can't make that prediction. To be able to stick it to the reigning national champs, the team that I had to spend four years hearing about as a high schooler, would be something beyond tremendous, if such a superlative even existed.

In the end, Michigan keeps it close for the first half, but without Toussaint, Michigan just won't have enough juice to keep enough drives going to make it a game. Even with Fitz, I'm not sure that Michigan has enough. It won't be pretty, but it won't be an outright blowout. At the same time, I don't think it will necessarily be "close." Michigan is a 13.5 point underdog, which, sadly, is just about right.

Score: Alabama 31, Michigan 17

Profilin' the Tide: Linebackers

Previously: General Offensive Preview, Offensive Line, Tailbacks, Wide receivers, Tight Ends, and H-backs, Quarterbacks, General Defensive Preview, Defensive Line 


Did you hear that? That terror-filled screamed reverberating in the distance? That's the sound made when Courtney Upshaw and Dont'a Hightower punch through the space-time continuum with reckless abandon, reaching into future times to hogtie the quarterbacks of the future, those that are only small children now, because contemporary targets offer challenges unequal to them. Yes, I am basically comparing them to Predator. That noise, just now, was Don'ta Hightower sacking David Sills, the 13 year old that Lane Kiffin somehow got to commit to USC two years ago: sorry, buddy. At least you're not being coached by Lane Kiffin anymore.* Courtney Upshaw and Dont'a Hightower scoff at the "laws" of physics--they're really mere suggestions--and your anatomy's structural integrity. They hit you, and it hurts. 


And now, the good news: they're gone, everybody! They're now the AFC North's and East's problem. Additionally, Alabama lost Jerrell Harris, who more than ably manned the SAM position. Alabama does return some experienced talent--namely, Nico Johnson and CJ Mosley--but losing players of the caliber of Upshaw and Hightower, in addition to a sometimes starter/significant contributor like Harris, is no small task. 


As you know, Alabama's base defense is the 3-4, which asks its down linemen to basically sacrifice themselves so that the linebackers can clean up and make plays. When done correctly, the 3-4 can be a monster of a defense to attempt to attack; the 1997 Michigan defense says hello. Guys like Terrence Cody and Josh Chapman at the nose have allowed Alabama's talented linebackers to do their thing en route to significant chunks of guaranteed rookie contract money. Guys like Rolando McClain, Dont'a Hightower, Courtney Upshaw, and others, have stood on the shoulders of giants, if you will. 


*Or...are you? Maybe this future time-space is one in which Lane Kiffin is offered the Dallas Cowboys head coaching job, and accepts it...but not before telling everyone in the state of California that Five Guys is better than In 'n Out and putting enough money in every jukebox in the metro LA area to play "Call Me Maybe" for the rest of time. That is plausible. 


The Starters 
Again, the standard "these are somewhat nominal" refrain goes here, but the starters as of right now would seem to look like so: 

CJ Mosley (WLB)-Nico Johnson (MLB)-Adrian Hubbard (SLB)-Xzavier Dickson (JLB)

For what it's worth, Hubbard and Dickson are listed as contenders for both the Jack and SLB spots, but returns from spring ball indicate that Dickson has the reins for the Jack position which Courtney Upshaw vacated in order to go destroy quarterbacks at the professional level. Also, when Alabama shifts to its nickel sets to combat the more wide open teams it faces (e.g. Arkansas), the SLB is the first to come off the field, which is why Jerrell Harris wasn't the constant presence that you'd expect of a starting linebacker. 


There is another scenario in which Trey DePriest fills in at MLB, with Johnson sliding out to Will and Mosley rotating there fairly liberally. Johnson has played both positions, so it would seem that a lot of this depends on how DePriest looked to the staff throughout the spring/will look during fall practice. It's plausible that, against Michigan, Saban will side with his experienced lineup, slotting Mosley at Will and Johnson at Mike, as Alabama will have the rest of the season to work DePriest into the lineup. DePriest will play, though, as Saban loves nothing more than giving offenses multiple looks. Whereas Michigan couldn't do a single thing right under Greg Robinson, the Tide under Saban's robotic tutelage execute multiple defenses with a cold efficiency. 


In short, I've ready many conflicting spring reports and depth charts from various sources across the Great Wide Variably Reliable Internet, so I'm just going to lay out the basics here without sweating the positions, because the positions and their accompanying skill sets are somewhat interchangeable. 

Please just wait one extra week to be really good okay thanks 

Adrian Hubbard (6-6, 248) is a rising redshirt sophomore, meaning that 2012 will be his third season in the program. After taking a redshirt in 2012, Hubbard played in 8 games last season, contributing 9 tackles as a backup Jack linebacker. Hubbard is not quite as big as Upshaw was, which is to be expected given his relative youth. Spring practice was apparently a good time for Adrian Hubbard, capped by a monster performance during the April 14th A-Day game (yes, spring games don't matter something something). Either way, there's not much to say here, as Hubbard's reputation at this point rides almost completely upon the wings of his recruiting hype and optimistic spring ball reports. That is to say that, you know, he's completely unproven. I would be lying if I said that Hubbard isn't the most important player in this group for the 2012 season. 


Hubbard's supreme athleticism led to questions of whether or not he might lace 'em up for Coach Anthony Grant on the hardwood. This did not come to pass, but could you imagine a 6-7 225 guy playing the 4; if he has any sort of basketball skill, his size and athleticism would make him a prime candidate for an NBA career (this is completely speculative, fyi). Although it seems a bit odd to dub Hubbard the "X factor" of this group when another starting linebacker named "Xzavier" exists, I think it is an apt descriptor. The Jack linebacker is the difference between just another solid defense that stops the run pretty well and one that makes life for opposing offenses a futile series of painful failure for approximately 3 seemingly interminable hours. So, no pressure, Adrian. 


Speaking of Xzavier Dickson--whose first name is a spectacular instance of adherence to pure phonetics in naming--is the other linebacker with above average pass rushing ability on the roster. Again, it appears that he's still in the mix for time at SAM, but for now it looks like Dickson will man the Jack position. Otherwise, if Hubbard ultimately wins the JLB competition, Dickson slots in at SAM, replacing Jerrell Harris. Dickson, listed at 6-3 262, is a full 20 pounds heavier than Harris, which would seem to make the decision of whether or not to take him off the field on passing downs even easier. In fact, Dickson worked with the defensive ends last season, notching time as a backup (in addition to some special teams reps). The link includes video of Dickson running around doing drills and such, if you're the sort of person to go on crazed extrapolative benders induced by brief and meaningless practice clips. Either way, he looks the part of the SAM. However, concerns re: experience are even more relevant here than they are for Hubbard. 

Nico Johnson is one of two bringers of experience and linebacking wisdom for the Crimson Tide. As a senior, this group will be looking to him for guidance. Johnson's flexibility is also a boon for the defensive staff, as he has logged starts at both the WLB and MLB positions throughout his career. Save the first LSU game last season, Johnson didn't necessarily light up the stat sheet, but that can be understandably difficult to do when one occupies that same playing field as Hightower and Upshaw. Sometimes, there's just not much left. 

CJ Mosley, for the purposes of this post, can basically be considered a starter. In fact, Mosley and Johnson were marked as "co-starters" during fall camp last year, and they did go on to essentially share the WLB position throughout the season. Mosley dislocated an elbow against Arkansas that caused him to miss 2 games. He also sustained a pretty brutal hip dislocation in the national championship game following that hilarious Jordan Jefferson derp-ception. Regardless, Mosley has participated in spring ball, and although he might not be 100%, he should be ready to go on September 1st barring further episodes of spontaneous bodily dislocation. Mosley had a superb freshman campaign back in 2010; I expect him to build upon that this season. Mosley, at 6-2 232, is the smallest and speediest of the bunch, and there's no doubt that he will have his sights set on Denard during most of the game on September 1st.  He's a dynamic guy that can take an interception and turn it into a touchdown going the other way. As such, Mosley is a nickel specialist, but I wouldn't be surprised if he played a significant percentage of the snaps in the base 3-4 as well. 


The Replacements 
In the middle, we have our old friend Trey DePriest, whom many thought was going to be a Wolverine at one point during his recruitment. Of course, that didn't happen, and DePriest is now a sophomore at Alabama. The continuing theme here is youth, and although it's not as if DePriest was handed the position (Tana Patrick, a once big time linebacker recruit, was competing for this spot), I might be slightly worried about DePriest starting if I was an Alabama fan. There's not much to say here other than the fact that we know the potential is there, it just hasn't had the opportunity to manifest itself on the field. 


DePriest did see some game action last season as a true freshman, notching at least one tackle in every game save the Georgia State and Auburn matchups (in which he either didn't play or didn't make his mark on the stat sheet). In the season opener against Kent State, DePriest tallied 10 total tackles. Playing Kent State is like training on Dagobah, though; you might do some things, but how impressive or ultimately meaningful is it until you prove it in a competitive environment (i.e. SEC play/Darth Vader)? 


Tana Patrick is another player competing for time in the middle. The name should be vaguely familiar, as Michigan was once in on Patrick's recruitment several years back. Unfortunately, Patrick will be a redshirt junior this season, having yet to make his mark on the field. Patrick (6-3 236) has seen game action the last two seasons, but apparently nothing meaningful enough to write home about. At this point, it looks like he'll be DePriest's backup. 


The rest of the list here contains mostly fresh faces. Jonathan Atchinson (6-3 236), who looks to back up Dickson/Hubbard at the Jack position, will be a redshirt junior this season. He has the reputation of a guy with speed and play-making ability in the backfield, which is pretty much what the JLB spot calls for. He'll be in the mix, but it's anybody's guess how much of a factor he'll be against Michigan. 


Alabama also boasts talented early enrollees Dillon Lee and Ryan Anderson. Lee has practiced both on the inside and outside positions, whereas Anderson seems to be strictly an outside linebacker. If either play against Michigan, then something has probably gone terribly wrong for either Alabama or Michigan. 


General Spring Minutiae/Encomium That Results In A "Bristling" Saban


We already know about Nico Johnson and CJ Mosley. They've been around and will likely be tasked with calming guys down...with Denard across the way and a hyper-electric stadium, a little nervousness on the part of guys like Hubbard, Dickson, DePriest would be understandable (especially early on). The good news for Alabama is that Mosley seems to have recovered from his hip injury quite nicely: 

"I wouldn't say 100%, but I'm just getting there every day. Rehabbing is going pretty well. I did a little rehab over spring break, but overall I'm feeling good at practice running around."

That was as of late March, so he should be fine by September barring any further aggravation.

Roll Bama Roll on Adrian Hubbard's A-Day performance:

The standout on defense yesterday was unquestionably Sam linebacker Adrian Hubbard, who may have had the best spring of any player on the roster. He was a consistently dominant force yesterday and could possibly be considered one of the defensive stars at this point. By putting him at Sam linebacker with Xzavier Dickson at Jack, Nick Saban and company effectively have two Jacks on the field, which largely makes for a true 5-2 base defense and provides countless alignment possibilities.

So, I'm not sure the distinction between what Dickson and Hubbard will be doing on the field is all that significant. Some more Hubbard praise on ESPN's SEC Blog: 

Hubbard had a monster spring for the Crimson Tide. He takes over for Courtney Upshaw at the Jack position and the people at Alabama think he might be the Tide's top pass-rusher this fall. The rising sophomore earned the Dwight Stephenson Lineman of the Game Award given to the spring game's most valuable lineman after registering seven tackles, including four tackles for loss and 3.0 sacks.

From a late March practice report re: Hubbard and Dickson: 

In one drill, Alabama had not only six defensive backs in the secondary but outside linebacker Adrian Hubbard was deep in the middle, too. Hubbard is a 6-foot-6, 237-pound redshirt sophomore-to-be who backed up Jack linebacker Courtney Upshaw last season. Hubbard was a football and basketball star in high school. He looks as if he can be a playmaker on the defense, but in the secondary in a dime defense? Perhaps that means sophomore-to-be Xzavier Dickson is targeted more as the pass-rushing Jack linebacker.

While the SLB/JLB positions aren't set in stone, one thing is for sure: Saban will throw a more than a few looks at Michigan, no matter who is on the field for the Tide. Borges has all summer to come up with a way to combat each set; however, at the end of the day, Denard and Co. need to go out and make Borges's schematic etchings come to life. Even the best laid plans can combust when crossing the river separating conception and reality. 


Things to Think About/Watch Out For/ARE WE GONNA DIE? 

• This is another "maybe, maybe not" answer to the question of whether we are going to die or not. Guys like Hubbard and Dickson are reportedly excellent athletes with superior pass rushing ability...but, they haven't done it in actual games that matter yet. While I do believe that they are as talented as Alabama partisans are saying that they are, doing it in practice is different from doing it in a game (let alone trying to get around tandem bike aficionado Taylor Lewan). 

• How much of the game on September 1st will Bama utilize the base 3-4? According to Saban, Alabama has only played out of the 3-4 approximately 20% of the time of late, with the other 80% accounted for by traditional 4-3 sets (in addition to the nickel). As RBR notes, with Dickson and Hubbard on the field at the same time, it also leaves the door open for some unique 5-2 looks and potential mass confusion on Michigan's part. Either way, with Denard's speed and Michigan's lack of a true power running game, Saban will probably be looking to get as much speed on the field as possible, which probably leads one to believe that September 1st will be a busy day for CJ Mosley. 

• What will Trey DePriest's role be on September 1st? I would think that he wouldn't be on the field in nickel situations, and when Bama moves to a traditional 4-3 look, Nico Johnson can/will man the MIKE position. The former 5-star 'backer will have his day in the sun, but I'm not sure that the Michigan game will provide his best chance to shine. 

Meaningless Grade That I Will Give Out Anyway
In spite of the talent that exists here, I would be the most worried about this position group if I was an Alabama fan. This group could be given an A based on talent alone, but I have to give them a B simply because, outside of Mosley and Johnson, there is very little game experience to be found. Dickson, Hubbard, and DePriest are all very talented guys that will prove to be very productive players, but it's very difficult for me to imagine them performing on 9/1 at even 75-80% of level that Upshaw and Hightower did last year. No matter how great a defensive mind Saban is and no matter how talented these replacements are, there will be some slippage. 


Ultimately, how much slippage there is will partly determine whether or not Michigan will have a chance at consistently moving the ball. This Alabama front 7 will be very good...but, it is very green. Assuming Michigan's offensive line holds up adequately, I'm confident that a veteran like Al Borges will be able to come up with something to take advantage of Bama's overall lack of experience. Whether that "something" leads to first downs and touchdowns on the field is another issue entirely. After watching Virginia Tech's defense stifle Michigan for most of the game, it's difficult to be too overconfident. Given the multiplicity of the Alabama defense and its overall athleticism, Borges will certainly earn his paycheck if Michigan can score somewhere in the 20s.