Before I get around to finally wrapping up this complete waste of timeoffseason boredom project incredibly enlightening series of posts, a couple prefatory notes for the Alabama fans that have recently discovered these little previews:
I have no doubt that I've made some errors in these posts (hopefully none too major). Feel free to let me know and I will try to remember to fix them if they're particularly egregious.
If you find these to be too long or too "boring," well...I would imagine that these wouldn't be all that exciting for you since you are an Alabama fan and thus already know who Nico Johnson, Cyrus Kouandjio, Kenny Bell, and Dee Milliner--and so on--are. If it isn't already obvious, these posts are directed at a Michigan audience that does not know who those guys are. Anyway, it's June, and don't even pretend like you're trying to watch the Braves or something. Nobody is watching the Braves. Not even Fredi Gonzalez is watching the Braves.
I labeled the grading section as such because the grades are completely non-scientific and shouldn't be paid too much mind. It's just a way to conventionally wrap these things up and is in no way held to any sort of uniform standard. I mean, what does a grade even mean in this context? A position group's quality relative to national standards? Alabama's historical standards? Some ideal A+ position group consistently solely of football-playing Terminator bots? Strength of a position group versus another group on the same team? Who knows, which is why I called it a "meaningless grade that I will give out anyway."
With that out of the way, I'll continue with the same formula of discussing departures first. Alabama loses Dre Kirkpatrick, Mark Barron, and DeQuan Menzie from its 2011 secondary, a group which lead Alabama to the top-ranked pass defense last season. Kirkpatrick went in the first round to Cincinnati (17th overall), Barron went 7th overall to Greg Schiano's Tampa Bay Bucs, and Menzie went in the 5th round to the Chiefs.
Barron is most likely the most difficult to replace, and his draft position reflects that. It seems that NFL teams in general are hesitant to draft the safety position with a top 10 pick these days; in fact, not a single safety was taken in the entire first round of the 2009 and 2011, and the Giants took Kenny Phillips of Miami (FL) with the last pick of the 1st round in 2008. NFL draft. Eric Berry of Tennessee was taken with the 5th overall pick in 2010 and LaRon Landry was taken 6th in 2007, but other than that top 10 safeties have been few are far between (FWIW, there were two in 2006: Donte Whitner and Michael Huff). This means that Barron obviously turned some heads in the Tampa Bay front office.
Kirkpatrick was a guy whose recruiting hype basically preordained a 3-year college career and a first round NFL contract. At 6'3'' 192, Dre is the big, athletic corner prototype that NFL scouts and GMs dream of while simultaneously shaking their fists at things like tradition, innovation, fun, clouds, and Communist college football. They also enjoy tying their tie knots really, really hugely.
Football is not fun. Football in the
NATIONAL. FOOTBALL. LEAGUE. has never been about fun. It's about TOUGHNESS and GRIT and HUGE TIE KNOTS.
Lastly, Menzie was a very versatile and valuable player opposite Kirkpatrick. When Bama moved to the nickel, Menzie went inside and used his physical play at the "star" position to match up with opposing slots, while Dee Milliner came in to play on the outside (more on him in a bit). Menzie was a JUCO guy, so he was only with the Tide for the 2010 and 2011 seasons, notching seven starts in 2010 before taking over the full-time starting role in 2011. According to his official athletics site profile, he lead all Bama corners in 2011 with 37 tackles, also pitching in 11 pass breakups, 3 TFLs, and 1.5 sacks. So, this is a guy that, while not as flashy and NFL marketable as DK, is a guy that will mix it up for you and can even make some plays in the ground game/on short passes, as well as on blitzes. In short, he's definitely a guy that every championship team wants to have in its secondary.
Did you hear that? That terror-filled screamed reverberating in the distance? That's the sound made when Courtney Upshaw and Dont'a Hightower punch through the space-time continuum with reckless abandon, reaching into future times to hogtie the quarterbacks of the future, those that are only small children now, because contemporary targets offer challenges unequal to them. Yes, I am basically comparing them to Predator. That noise, just now, was Don'ta Hightower sacking David Sills, the 13 year old that Lane Kiffin somehow got to commit to USC two years ago: sorry, buddy. At least you're not being coached by Lane Kiffin anymore.* Courtney Upshaw and Dont'a Hightower scoff at the "laws" of physics--they're really mere suggestions--and your anatomy's structural integrity. They hit you, and it hurts.
And now, the good news: they're gone, everybody! They're now the AFC North's and East's problem. Additionally, Alabama lost Jerrell Harris, who more than ably manned the SAM position. Alabama does return some experienced talent--namely, Nico Johnson and CJ Mosley--but losing players of the caliber of Upshaw and Hightower, in addition to a sometimes starter/significant contributor like Harris, is no small task.
As you know, Alabama's base defense is the 3-4, which asks its down linemen to basically sacrifice themselves so that the linebackers can clean up and make plays. When done correctly, the 3-4 can be a monster of a defense to attempt to attack; the 1997 Michigan defense says hello. Guys like Terrence Cody and Josh Chapman at the nose have allowed Alabama's talented linebackers to do their thing en route to significant chunks of guaranteed rookie contract money. Guys like Rolando McClain, Dont'a Hightower, Courtney Upshaw, and others, have stood on the shoulders of giants, if you will.
*Or...are you? Maybe this future time-space is one in which Lane Kiffin is offered the Dallas Cowboys head coaching job, and accepts it...but not before telling everyone in the state of California that Five Guys is better than In 'n Out and putting enough money in every jukebox in the metro LA area to play "Call Me Maybe" for the rest of time. That is plausible.
The Starters Again, the standard "these are somewhat nominal" refrain goes here, but the starters as of right now would seem to look like so:
CJ Mosley (WLB)-Nico Johnson (MLB)-Adrian Hubbard (SLB)-Xzavier Dickson (JLB)
For what it's worth, Hubbard and Dickson are listed as contenders for both the Jack and SLB spots, but returns from spring ball indicate that Dickson has the reins for the Jack position which Courtney Upshaw vacated in order to go destroy quarterbacks at the professional level. Also, when Alabama shifts to its nickel sets to combat the more wide open teams it faces (e.g. Arkansas), the SLB is the first to come off the field, which is why Jerrell Harris wasn't the constant presence that you'd expect of a starting linebacker.
There is another scenario in which Trey DePriest fills in at MLB, with Johnson sliding out to Will and Mosley rotating there fairly liberally. Johnson has played both positions, so it would seem that a lot of this depends on how DePriest looked to the staff throughout the spring/will look during fall practice. It's plausible that, against Michigan, Saban will side with his experienced lineup, slotting Mosley at Will and Johnson at Mike, as Alabama will have the rest of the season to work DePriest into the lineup. DePriest will play, though, as Saban loves nothing more than giving offenses multiple looks. Whereas Michigan couldn't do a single thing right under Greg Robinson, the Tide under Saban's robotic tutelage execute multiple defenses with a cold efficiency.
In short, I've ready many conflicting spring reports and depth charts from various sources across the Great Wide Variably Reliable Internet, so I'm just going to lay out the basics here without sweating the positions, because the positions and their accompanying skill sets are somewhat interchangeable.
Please just wait one extra week to be really good okay thanks
Adrian Hubbard (6-6, 248) is a rising redshirt sophomore, meaning that 2012 will be his third season in the program. After taking a redshirt in 2012, Hubbard played in 8 games last season, contributing 9 tackles as a backup Jack linebacker. Hubbard is not quite as big as Upshaw was, which is to be expected given his relative youth. Spring practice was apparently a good time for Adrian Hubbard, capped by a monster performance during the April 14th A-Day game (yes, spring games don't matter something something). Either way, there's not much to say here, as Hubbard's reputation at this point rides almost completely upon the wings of his recruiting hype and optimistic spring ball reports. That is to say that, you know, he's completely unproven. I would be lying if I said that Hubbard isn't the most important player in this group for the 2012 season.
Hubbard's supreme athleticism led to questions of whether or not he might lace 'em up for Coach Anthony Grant on the hardwood. This did not come to pass, but could you imagine a 6-7 225 guy playing the 4; if he has any sort of basketball skill, his size and athleticism would make him a prime candidate for an NBA career (this is completely speculative, fyi). Although it seems a bit odd to dub Hubbard the "X factor" of this group when another starting linebacker named "Xzavier" exists, I think it is an apt descriptor. The Jack linebacker is the difference between just another solid defense that stops the run pretty well and one that makes life for opposing offenses a futile series of painful failure for approximately 3 seemingly interminable hours. So, no pressure, Adrian.
Speaking of Xzavier Dickson--whose first name is a spectacular instance of adherence to pure phonetics in naming--is the other linebacker with above average pass rushing ability on the roster. Again, it appears that he's still in the mix for time at SAM, but for now it looks like Dickson will man the Jack position. Otherwise, if Hubbard ultimately wins the JLB competition, Dickson slots in at SAM, replacing Jerrell Harris. Dickson, listed at 6-3 262, is a full 20 pounds heavier than Harris, which would seem to make the decision of whether or not to take him off the field on passing downs even easier. In fact, Dickson worked with the defensive ends last season, notching time as a backup (in addition to some special teams reps). The link includes video of Dickson running around doing drills and such, if you're the sort of person to go on crazed extrapolative benders induced by brief and meaningless practice clips. Either way, he looks the part of the SAM. However, concerns re: experience are even more relevant here than they are for Hubbard.
Nico Johnson is one of two bringers of experience and linebacking wisdom for the Crimson Tide. As a senior, this group will be looking to him for guidance. Johnson's flexibility is also a boon for the defensive staff, as he has logged starts at both the WLB and MLB positions throughout his career. Save the first LSU game last season, Johnson didn't necessarily light up the stat sheet, but that can be understandably difficult to do when one occupies that same playing field as Hightower and Upshaw. Sometimes, there's just not much left.
CJ Mosley, for the purposes of this post, can basically be considered a starter. In fact, Mosley and Johnson were marked as "co-starters" during fall camp last year, and they did go on to essentially share the WLB position throughout the season. Mosley dislocated an elbow against Arkansas that caused him to miss 2 games. He also sustained a pretty brutal hip dislocation in the national championship game following that hilarious Jordan Jefferson derp-ception. Regardless, Mosley has participated in spring ball, and although he might not be 100%, he should be ready to go on September 1st barring further episodes of spontaneous bodily dislocation. Mosley had a superb freshman campaign back in 2010; I expect him to build upon that this season. Mosley, at 6-2 232, is the smallest and speediest of the bunch, and there's no doubt that he will have his sights set on Denard during most of the game on September 1st. He's a dynamic guy that can take an interception and turn it into a touchdown going the other way. As such, Mosley is a nickel specialist, but I wouldn't be surprised if he played a significant percentage of the snaps in the base 3-4 as well.
The Replacements In the middle, we have our old friend Trey DePriest, whom many thought was going to be a Wolverine at one point during his recruitment. Of course, that didn't happen, and DePriest is now a sophomore at Alabama. The continuing theme here is youth, and although it's not as if DePriest was handed the position (Tana Patrick, a once big time linebacker recruit, was competing for this spot), I might be slightly worried about DePriest starting if I was an Alabama fan. There's not much to say here other than the fact that we know the potential is there, it just hasn't had the opportunity to manifest itself on the field.
DePriest did see some game action last season as a true freshman, notching at least one tackle in every game save the Georgia State and Auburn matchups (in which he either didn't play or didn't make his mark on the stat sheet). In the season opener against Kent State, DePriest tallied 10 total tackles. Playing Kent State is like training on Dagobah, though; you might do some things, but how impressive or ultimately meaningful is it until you prove it in a competitive environment (i.e. SEC play/Darth Vader)?
Tana Patrick is another player competing for time in the middle. The name should be vaguely familiar, as Michigan was once in on Patrick's recruitment several years back. Unfortunately, Patrick will be a redshirt junior this season, having yet to make his mark on the field. Patrick (6-3 236) has seen game action the last two seasons, but apparently nothing meaningful enough to write home about. At this point, it looks like he'll be DePriest's backup.
The rest of the list here contains mostly fresh faces. Jonathan Atchinson (6-3 236), who looks to back up Dickson/Hubbard at the Jack position, will be a redshirt junior this season. He has the reputation of a guy with speed and play-making ability in the backfield, which is pretty much what the JLB spot calls for. He'll be in the mix, but it's anybody's guess how much of a factor he'll be against Michigan.
Alabama also boasts talented early enrollees Dillon Lee and Ryan Anderson. Lee has practiced both on the inside and outside positions, whereas Anderson seems to be strictly an outside linebacker. If either play against Michigan, then something has probably gone terribly wrong for either Alabama or Michigan.
General Spring Minutiae/Encomium That Results In A "Bristling" Saban
We already know about Nico Johnson and CJ Mosley. They've been around and will likely be tasked with calming guys down...with Denard across the way and a hyper-electric stadium, a little nervousness on the part of guys like Hubbard, Dickson, DePriest would be understandable (especially early on). The good news for Alabama is that Mosley seems to have recovered from his hip injury quite nicely:
"I wouldn't say 100%, but I'm just getting there every day. Rehabbing is going pretty well. I did a little rehab over spring break, but overall I'm feeling good at practice running around."
That was as of late March, so he should be fine by September barring any further aggravation.
The standout on defense yesterday was unquestionably Sam linebacker Adrian Hubbard, who may have had the best spring of any player on the roster. He was a consistently dominant force yesterday and could possibly be considered one of the defensive stars at this point. By putting him at Sam linebacker with Xzavier Dickson at Jack, Nick Saban and company effectively have two Jacks on the field, which largely makes for a true 5-2 base defense and provides countless alignment possibilities.
So, I'm not sure the distinction between what Dickson and Hubbard will be doing on the field is all that significant. Some more Hubbard praise on ESPN's SEC Blog:
Hubbard had a monster spring for the Crimson Tide. He takes over for Courtney Upshaw at the Jack position and the people at Alabama think he might be the Tide's top pass-rusher this fall. The rising sophomore earned the Dwight Stephenson Lineman of the Game Award given to the spring game's most valuable lineman after registering seven tackles, including four tackles for loss and 3.0 sacks.
In one drill, Alabama had not only six defensive backs in the secondary but outside linebackerAdrian Hubbardwas deep in the middle, too. Hubbard is a 6-foot-6, 237-pound redshirt sophomore-to-be who backed up Jack linebackerCourtney Upshawlast season. Hubbard was a football and basketball star in high school. He looks as if he can be a playmaker on the defense, but in the secondary in a dime defense? Perhaps that means sophomore-to-beXzavier Dicksonis targeted more as the pass-rushing Jack linebacker.
While the SLB/JLB positions aren't set in stone, one thing is for sure: Saban will throw a more than a few looks at Michigan, no matter who is on the field for the Tide. Borges has all summer to come up with a way to combat each set; however, at the end of the day, Denard and Co. need to go out and make Borges's schematic etchings come to life. Even the best laid plans can combust when crossing the river separating conception and reality.
Things to Think About/Watch Out For/ARE WE GONNA DIE?
This is another "maybe, maybe not" answer to the question of whether we are going to die or not. Guys like Hubbard and Dickson are reportedly excellent athletes with superior pass rushing ability...but, they haven't done it in actual games that matter yet. While I do believe that they are as talented as Alabama partisans are saying that they are, doing it in practice is different from doing it in a game (let alone trying to get around tandem bike aficionado Taylor Lewan).
How much of the game on September 1st will Bama utilize the base 3-4? According to Saban, Alabama has only played out of the 3-4 approximately 20% of the time of late, with the other 80% accounted for by traditional 4-3 sets (in addition to the nickel). As RBR notes, with Dickson and Hubbard on the field at the same time, it also leaves the door open for some unique 5-2 looks and potential mass confusion on Michigan's part. Either way, with Denard's speed and Michigan's lack of a true power running game, Saban will probably be looking to get as much speed on the field as possible, which probably leads one to believe that September 1st will be a busy day for CJ Mosley.
What will Trey DePriest's role be on September 1st? I would think that he wouldn't be on the field in nickel situations, and when Bama moves to a traditional 4-3 look, Nico Johnson can/will man the MIKE position. The former 5-star 'backer will have his day in the sun, but I'm not sure that the Michigan game will provide his best chance to shine.
Meaningless Grade That I Will Give Out Anyway In spite of the talent that exists here, I would be the most worried about this position group if I was an Alabama fan. This group could be given an A based on talent alone, but I have to give them a B simply because, outside of Mosley and Johnson, there is very little game experience to be found. Dickson, Hubbard, and DePriest are all very talented guys that will prove to be very productive players, but it's very difficult for me to imagine them performing on 9/1 at even 75-80% of level that Upshaw and Hightower did last year. No matter how great a defensive mind Saban is and no matter how talented these replacements are, there will be some slippage.
Ultimately, how much slippage there is will partly determine whether or not Michigan will have a chance at consistently moving the ball. This Alabama front 7 will be very good...but, it is very green. Assuming Michigan's offensive line holds up adequately, I'm confident that a veteran like Al Borges will be able to come up with something to take advantage of Bama's overall lack of experience. Whether that "something" leads to first downs and touchdowns on the field is another issue entirely. After watching Virginia Tech's defense stifle Michigan for most of the game, it's difficult to be too overconfident. Given the multiplicity of the Alabama defense and its overall athleticism, Borges will certainly earn his paycheck if Michigan can score somewhere in the 20s.
Alabama loses a couple key players from last year's championship team (NTs Josh Chapman and Nick Gentry); Chapman's starting role is being filled by Jesse Williams, whom had made the move over from defensive end. Gentry was a solid rotational type guy on the inside, contributing 20 tackles, 3.5 sacks, and 5 TFL in his 11 game appearances last season.
Luckily for Alabama, they do return quite a few faces from last year's team. This won't be a completely inexperienced group by any means, and you can imagine that they will still be supremely talented, even if it doesn't always manifest itself on the stat sheet.
The Starters As mentioned a number of times before, Jesse Williams (6-4, 320) is taking his talents to the middle of the defensive line after playing out the last two seasons at SDE. Normal position switch caveats indicate that no matter how good a player is, switching positions will lead to at least a little slippage in productivity. In this situation, however, I don't think it's all that wise to get your hopes up.
Yeah, that's Jesse Williams...of course.
Williams looks the part, and I can't imagine that we will necessarily feel physically overwhelmed at any point in the season, let alone against the interior of Michigan's offensive line (the trio of Mealer-Barnum-Omameh aren't exactly Baas-Pearson-Lentz). Still, a lack of game experience in the position is a lack of game experience, and Michigan might be able to use Williams's own strength and momentum against him with a steady diet of zone runs and quick, West Coasty passes that Al Borges probably dreams about (no bubble screens, obviously...they're undignified).
"It's a bit more close quarters as far as people, a lot more crunching with a lot of different people instead of just going with the tackle or the gap," Williams said. "It's not too serious."
If you feel like killing just under 6 minutes, here's a video of Williams taking on blocks and doing the general yeoman work--"crunching"--that a 3-4 lineman has to do.
At the strong side end position, Quinton Dial (6-6, 304) looks to fill Williams' old spot. Dial, a 2009 recruit who had to go the JUCO route before qualifying at Alabama, played his first season with the Tide last year. Although his official profile indicates that he played nose guard at Mississippi Community College, he is a SDE with pass rushing being his forte. However, he only notched 1 sack last season (against Kent State) in his role as a reserve player. He did also tally 24 tackles, 10 of them of the solo variety.
Damion Square (6-3, 286) will man the other end position. Unlike Dial, the redshirt senior Square is a veteran player for the Crimson Tide. After tearing his ACL in 2009, Square came back to play in all 13 games in 2010 (starting 6 of them) and starting every game last season. If this was MGoBlog, Damion Square would be a "trusted user."
Square notched 30 tackles, 7 TFL, and 1 sack in 2011.
The Replacements
On first glance, there is quite a bit of youth and inexperience backing up the aforementioned starters. On second glance, well...there's still a lot of youth and inexperience sitting on the depth chart behind Square, Williams, and Dial.
Backing up Williams in the middle is redshirt-sophomore-to-be Brandon Ivory. Ivory is the rare former generic 3-star on the Alabama defense. According to his rolltide.com profile, he was a late commitment, choosing Alabama over Memphis and Southern Miss, which is not unlike choosing to eat at Ruth's Chris over Rally's and Hardee's. Ivory did play some last year, but not a whole lot is known about him at this point, other than the fact that he's appropriately sized for the NT position (6-4, 315).
Dial's main understudy appears to be Ed Stinson, who started out his Alabama career at the Jack linebacker position. Unlike Ivory, Stinson has some useful game experience. After redshirting in 2009, Stinson notched two starts in 2010. Perhaps the most impressive performance of his career came at home against Penn State, during which he tallied a team high 9 total tackles (5 solos, all on running plays), and a pair of QB hurries. The Nittany Lions couldn't do much at all that day; Stinson's play was a big factor in that (another reason: Rob Bolden). He's dubbed a "consistent run-stopper and a good pass rusher." Personally, I would not be surprised to see him take over the starting role from Dial (which might as well be a nominal designation at this point anyway), although I have to point out that that is just my own opinion; I'm not sure if that sentiment is reflected by Alabama fans. In any case, as the 2010 PSU game demonstrates, Stinson is a guy that can have a significant impact on a game, even in a non-starting role.
Ed Stinson
Spelling Damion Square at the other end spot is Jeoffrey Pagan, who wears a single digit number, thus reflexively calling to mind other world destroying defensive ends, such as former Gator Carlos Dunlap and Jadeveon Clowney. For whatever reason, I see a single digit number on an SEC team and think "yup, that's a first round draft pick," and I'd probably say this even if the guy had knees constructed solely of Golden Flake potato chips.
While it's obviously too early to anoint Pagan the next great Alabama lineman, early returns are encouraging. As a recruit, his offer list was a veritable who's who of college football, a list that includes "Norte Dame." Norte Dame exists in an alternate universe in which Tommy Reese doesn't turn the ball over, Freekbass doesn't exist, and bowl victories are so plentiful as to be exorbitant.
Additionally, Pagan, a true freshman in 2011, did get on the field some. He made six appearances last season, tallying 4 total tackles in the process. I'm not sure how much of a role he'll have on September 1st, but I'd look for him to at least appear in every game this season.
As far as experienced backups go, Undra Billingsley will be a redshirt senior in 2012 and has seen game action in just about every single game the past two seasons at defensive end. Re: 2011 recruits, DJ Pettway and LaMichael Fanning look to figure into the rotation this season after taking redshirts last year.
As far as the incoming class goes, Nick Saban apparently recruited defensive tackles like RR recruited Lilliputian slot receivers. Given the nature of the 3-4, I'd imagine that there is some significant flexibility there with respect to a high school DT being either a college NT or a SDE. The Tide signed a whopping five DTs in the 2012 class (3 3-stars, 2 4-stars), and understandably so. Alabama had to move Jesse Williams to the interior despite ideally wanting to keep him at end, and it doesn't appear that there is much in the way of established quality backing Williams up. With that said, I'm not sure that any of the incoming recruits here deserve specific mention, mostly because I doubt any of them notch meaningful time on September 1st.
General Spring Minutiae/Encomium That Results In A Bristling Saban
Spring practice has long since ended, so this section may or may not be obsolete at this point. Regardless, Damion Square has some nice things to say (i.e. boilerplate spring talk) about the new iteration of the Alabama defensive line:
“We are very big but very athletic,” Square said of the defensive linemen. “Not saying that the guys before weren’t athletic but these guys -- pretty much all across the board they can play any position up front and get the job done.”
He may be right re: athleticism, but the whole "last year's guys were good and all but look at us now" isn't a new thing. Let's not forget that Alabama won a national championship last season.
On the defensive side of the ball, the rotation at defensive end was as strong as expected, holding up well at the point of attack and disrupting numerous plays against quality competition. Jesse Williams was very impressive at nose guard, but here too depth remains a legitimate question. Brandon Ivory looks to be taking a step in the right direction, as does Jeoffrey Pagan, but whether either of them could be called upon to anchor the line against top-flight SEC competition is unknown. Both need more time in the strength and conditioning program and better hand work.
Jeoffrey Pagan notched a pair of sacks in the A-Day game. Otherwise, the rest is boilerplate spring talk. The line performed admirably for the most part, working to hold Jalston Fowler to 22 yards on eight carries. TJ Yeldon did rack up 189 yards of total offense, but he was playing with the second-team offense.
Things To Think About/Watch Out For/ARE WE GONNA DIE?
As usual, starting with the question first: maybe, but probably (hopefully) not. That's not to say that Alabama's defensive is not very good, it's just that it's not as world destroying as you might imagine. Also, it's important to remember that any issues either team might have will be underscored by the simple fact that this is the first game of the season.
As mentioned before, but can Jesse Williams get acclimated to the nose in time for the Michigan game? Again, no matter how good Williams was at end, playing nose is a completely different animal. Williams's size and/or general modus operandi as a player lead one to believe that he'll be just fine, but until you see a guy do it on the field he remains somewhat of a question mark. With that said, if he's absorbing or splitting double teams from Barnum and whomever with regularity, Michigan might not get into the double digits in this game. That is, of course, the worst case scenario.
Damion Square seems to be locked in at one of the end positions, but other side seems slightly open-ended. Quinton Dial appears to be the starter as of right now, but Ed Stinson showed some serious ability in his first year on the line (after moving from the JLB position). Both have seen playing time, and while not exactly the most experienced players ever, they are certainly not green. This will be a position to monitor once fall practice starts.
Alabama is as athletic as you'd imagine them to be on the defensive line. The odd man front presents a different sort of challenge for Denard Robinson and Al Borges. With Williams in the middle and speed up the edges, Michigan will need to bring arguably its most creative gameplan since the Capital One Bowl against Florida if it wants to put up enough points to have a chance to win this game.
Meaningless Grade That I Will Give Out Anyway
Alabama's situation up front is not nearly as dire as Michigan's; however, questions still remain, questions that likely won't be answered until Michigan and Alabama hit the field on September 1st. Although Jesse Williams looks to be another standout in a long line of ground game destroying interior defensive linemen, he is still relatively new to the game of football. As such, it's not unreasonable to expect some growing pains with this position switch. Additionally, the rest of the depth chart at the position is not exactly that much rosier than what Michigan is currently staring in the face.
On the bright side, Alabama does have a lot more depth at end. Damion Square and Dial/Stinson should provide a nice run-stopping presence paired with good pass rushing ability. There's a bevy of talented options, young and old, backing up the starters here, and Michigan should expect to see at least a couple of them on gameday.
Again, meaningless grade and all, but I'm going with a B+ here. This line will be pretty good when all is said and done, but I don't get the feeling that this is a unit that will completely outclass Michigan's offensive line. With that said, if the opposite turns out to be true, then this game will turn out to be an ugly, losing version of the Sugar Bowl.
Having already taken a look at the Alabama offense and asking some questions about Doug Nussmeier, the wide receivers, and whether or not WE ARE GONNA DIE, it's time to shift our focus to the defense. While I would argue that the Alabama offense of the last few years--while not exactly "flashy"--has been just as dangerous and important to their success as the defense, people of course look to the defense first in any discussion of the Crimson Tide. This is rightfully so, because my goodness they have been earth-shatteringly good.
Say what you will about Nick Saban's ethics, but the man (as well as his righthand man Kirby Smart) know defense like a Michigan Man knows righteous indignation. Before I say anything, I think it's important to put a certain fanciful notion to rest: Alabama will not not be really good on defense this year, even with the long list of NFL departures in mind. Yes, oversigning and all that, but it's a testament to the strength of the Alabama's program that the defense will likely be very good again in spite of losses like Courtney Upshaw, Mark Barron, Dont'a Hightower, etc. Keep in mind that we Michigan fans are worrying about the defense (well, the DL, mostly), and we lost three defensive linemen, only one of whom was drafted, and Troy "Don't Call Me Woolfork" Woolfolk. That's not meant to be disparaging for obvious reasons, but it is true. Michigan will get there eventually. There was once a time when Michigan simply "reloaded", but we are not at that point just yet; Alabama is.
You probably already know all of this, but, for the sake of this post, a brief rundown of Alabama's losses on defense is necessary. Alabama lost the following players to the NFL: JLB (Jack linebacker) Courtney Upshaw, ILB Dont'a Hightower, CB Dre Kirkpatrick, strong safety Mark Barron, CB De'Quan Menzie, OLB Jerrell Harris, and NG Josh Chapman. It goes without saying, but I'll just go ahead and say it anyway: that is a lot of departing talent.
Of those losses, three went in the first round (Barron, Kirkpatrick, and Upshaw), with a fourth being selected with the 3rd pick of the second round (Hightower). Two others, Chapman and Menzie, went in the fifth round. Harris was the lone undrafted player of the bunch (of course, that does not mean that he was not very, very good).
As such, Alabama is looking to replace:
3 linebackers: the "Jack" linebacker position, the name for the hybrid DE/OLB position in Bama's 3-4, the SLB, and one of two ILB spots
Both corners
Strong safety
Nose guard (which will be filled by Jesse Williams, who started last year at SDE)
Lastly, if you can't already tell from the above or didn't know before...yes, Alabama runs the 3-4 that certain NFL teams have used on their way to Super Bowls. This doesn't look like it's embeddable, but here's a brief video of Saban talking about the 3-4 defense. I'm probably not the one qualified to do this, but an explanation of the schematics of the 3-4 would be a useful exercise at some point before September 1st.
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You might be reading this and thinking "YES, HOKEMANIA'S GETTIN' READY TO RUN WILD ON YOU, ALABAMA." Not so fast, my friend. This type of mass defensive exodus is not unprecedented. As you probably remember, after winning the national championship two seasons ago, Alabama lost quite a bit of defensive talent to the NFL. In the 2010 NFL draft, Alabama lost: DT Terrence Cody, CB (and punt returner extraordinaire) Javier Arenas, CB Kareem Jackson, LB Rolando McClain, and safety Marquis Johnson, DE Brandon Deaderick, and DE Lorenzo Washington.
By round, the aforementioned players went in the first round (2), second round (2), seventh round (2), and undrafted (1). So, just like this year, Alabama had to replace seven starters/significant contributors in 2010. Of course, Alabama did not have a championship season in 2010. As you will also remember, the Tide went 10-3 (5-3) that year, taking losses @South Carolina, @ LSU, and at home in the Iron Bowl when Cam Newton decided to officially lock up the Heisman Trophy in the second half.
Alabama then went on to absolutely destroy #9 Michigan State, 49-7, in the Citrus Capital One Bowl. I am obviously not a Spartan fan, but even I have to cringe a little bit when I think about that game. It was not pretty.
This is all to say that Alabama was still really, really good in 2010 despite having a "down" year. The loss at South Carolina was the only "bad" loss of that year, as the Gamecocks finished the season 9-5 (although they did represent the SEC East in the Georgia Dome that year). Playing at Death Valley (no, not you Clemson) is a tough thing in almost any year, but LSU wasn't exactly a middling squad year; the Tigers finished the year 11-2 (5-2), with their only losses coming at the hands of Cam Newton and Arkansas in one of many "somewhat inexplicable Les Miles losses to Arkansas in the Battle for the Golden Boot." Alabama lost that one at LSU by, you guessed it...a field goal, 24-21, a game in which which both SECW powerhouses were ranked in the top 10. Also of note: Alabama was without Barrett Jones, then still at the left tackle spot, for the last two games of that season against Georgia State and, more importantly, Auburn.
In short, the only loss that year worthy of a paddlin' was the one at South Carolina, a team led by the man known as Stephen Garcia (although he doesn't normally go by that name because, you know, who needs to be held down by the unchill tyranny of "names," man?). That game, in addition to the second half against Auburn, were the lone examples of the Alabama defense showing any semblance of mortality. This is a bit disconcerting. Many Alabama fans likely remember that season as a failure, but that team could have very easily been looking at another national title game appearance, or, at the very least another SEC title, which is no small feat in and of itself.
In short, there is a precedent for what Nick Saban and Alabama will be attempting to do with the defense this season. Does this mean that Alabama will actually be that good again this season in spite of significant losses on the defensive side of the ball? No, but to say that they won't good enough to give us serious problems is a bit of wishful thinking. If this all sounds like a bunch of doom and gloom, well...it is. Of course, I'm talking about Alabama here without mentioning Michigan at all, which makes it seem like I think that Michigan has no hope or no agency in making the outcome a desirable one. That is obviously not the case, as I have the utmost confidence in Michigan's coordinators and Denard Robinson's ability to make people look silly. Still, it's important to view things in the appropriate light.
The Michigan offense, with another offseason of conditioning and practice reps, will be better than last year. However, if you asked me to give you a vague point of reference for Alabama's 2012 defense, I'd tell you that they will be at least as good as the Virginia Tech defense that stifled Michigan in the Sugar Bowl not too long ago.
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Like I did for the offense, I will finish this somewhat apocalyptic post with a few general questions as a primer for the position specific previews:
Jesse Williams obviously looks the part, but position switch concerns will always apply regardless of the caliber of player. Can Williams replace the presence of Josh Chapman as the run stopper/general world destroyer in the middle? It remains to be seen simply because we have not, you know, seen him play that position. It doesn't help that Michigan is looking to replace a Rimington winner at center.
Alabama looks to replace both starters at corner, an uncomfortable proposition for any team in college football. With that said, Alabama does return Dee Milliner, a former 5-star prospect who was primarily a 3rd corner nickel type last season. Milliner did in fact start 6 games last year, so he's not exactly some sort of newbie. Still, Alabama needs to find one other starter on the outside. Given the erratic nature of Denard's arm and the lack of top end receiving talent for Michigan, this may not end up mattering as much as it otherwise might have if Darryl Stonum were returning. Additionally, Alabama returns FS Robert Lester but looks to replace 1st round pick Mark Barron at the strong safety position. Sophomores Vinnie Sunseri (son of former Alabama linebackers coach and new UT DC Sal Sunseri) and Ha'Sean "Ha-Ha" Clinton-Dix are currently battling for Barron's vacated spot. Michigan is obviously going to attempt to run the football as much as possible, so can either of them provide the authoritative run-stopping presence that Barron provided? While not short on talent, there are questions in the secondary that need to be answered. The fact that Saban signed two JUCOs, Deion Belue and Travell Dixon, speaks to that.
With Courtney Upshaw's departure, Alabama will need to find someone to replace his pass rushing prowess at the JLB position, aka the deathbacker position that, for some reason, Craig Roh was at one point supposed to be. Adrian Hubbard looks to be the heir apparent here; can he provide a consistent pass rush and run-stopping presence on September 1st that even approaches what Upshaw offered? The SEC is known for its speedy pass rushing mavens at DE and OLB, but a redshirt sophomore with no starts to his name is still a question mark, no matter how much talent or recruiting hype he may have.
Alabama quarterbacks through the [recent] ages; if you're reading this caption without the theme music from Carl Sagan's "Cosmos" playing in your head, you're doing it wrong
As you can probably imagine, this preview will prove to be about as spicy as a Vanilla Wafer. That's not to say that they aren't good, but if you're looking for a more exciting snack item, you're better off looking to the Oreo or the Keebler striped cookie or perhaps a nice zesty piece of cardboard. I think we're still talking about football here but I'm not really sure. FOOTBAW. Okay, back on track.
Since time immemorial, the prototype for the Alabama signal caller has been fairly consistent. Somewhat surprisingly, Alabama has had one more All-American quarterback than Michigan since 1950 (Joe Namath-1964, Steve Sloan-1965, Kenny Stabler-1967, and Jay Barker-1994), but by and large the average Alabama quarterback has carried the cliched "game manager" label. While this is a label that I find to be somewhat useless--as if "managing a game" is as simple as making a sandwich or expressing outrage at any of Dave Brandon's doings via social media and/or the Internets, generally--it does carry some weight.
For an outsider, guys like Brodie Croyle, John Parker Wilson, Greg McElroy, and AJ McCarron can seem somewhat indistinguishable. IME, Croyle was arguably the most talented of this group, and his career, as far as wins and losses go, was fairly nondescript. The obvious answer to this point is that, well, the teams that McElroy and McCarron have had the chance to lead were worlds better than those of the first two names on that list (minus the 2008 team that Wilson quarterbacked), not to mention the fact that Saban is just a tad better than Mike Shula at that whole coaching thing.
The Starter
Last season, the Tide looked to replace Greg McElroy, who after leading Alabama to a relatively disappointing 3-loss season in 2010, won the MNC in 2011. Leading up to the 2011 season, a mini-controversy existed at the position between Phillip Sims and AJ McCarron. Sims saw time in the opening game blowout against Kent State before not taking a snap the next week against Penn State, and so it was McCarron's job the rest of the way.
Just managing this game , you guys. (Rob Carr/Getty Images)
There is no such controversy this time around, as the redshirt junior 6'4'' 210 AJ McCarron is firmly entrenched as the starter. McCarron, the leading hipster quarterback of our time, had an impressively efficient 2011 campaign. He went 219 for 328 (66.8%), passing for 2,634 yards and 16 touchdowns to only 5 picks. For a point of reference, that completion percentage is appoximately 6% better than Chad Henne's best season, completion percentage-wise (2006), and the yardage total is about halfway between Henne's two best seasons (2004 and 2005). McCarron's 328 attempt's equals Henne's 328 in Michigan's successful 2006 campaign, and so completing a shade under 67% compared to Henne's 62% is fairly impressive, no matter how inflated by "safe" passes and having Trent Richardson might make you believe it to be.
Outside of the first LSU game, McCarron brought at minimum serviceable efforts against the best teams on the schedule. Against Penn State in Happy Valley, he went 19/31 with 1 TD and no picks. Against Arkansas, 15/20 with a pair of TDs and no picks. Against Auburn (not of course a "good team" but still, a rivalry game), he went 18/23 with 3 TDs (a long of 41 on a flea flicker to Kenny Bell) and no picks. In perhaps the most important performance of his career, he went 23/34 against LSU in The One That Counted, and although he didn't convert in the red zone he also did not make any mistakes.
He took 13 sacks in 2011, the same number as Denard, which speaks to the function of the offense and the strength of the offensive line. Beyer, Clark, Roh, et al have their work cut out for them when it comes to rushing the passer. As far as mobility goes, he is obviously not Denard but definitely not Navarre:
On 3rd & 3-7, McCarron was 34/49 for 377 yards and a whopping 7 TDs.
151 of his 328 attempts (46%) came on first down. He completed 70% of these passes.
In short, while it might be convenient to slap the "game manager" label on McCarron, he is a more than capable college quarterback. He has good size and serviceable mobility, and although he's not asked to make too many plays downfield, he has the accuracy and arm to do so when called upon. The primary concern for Alabama and McCarron going forward is whether or not the tailbacks can combine to replace Richardson and whether or not the relatively green receivers can produce against single coverage. Brad Smelley, who may have been his favorite target in 2011, is gone, and Bama will need to find a quality H-back to replace him as the checkdown option that McCarron looks to in the red zone and 3rd and medium situations.
We can only hope the passing game, what with all the new receivers, looks sort of like this
The Replacements
Barring injury, I wouldn't imagine that any of the backups here will see serious game reps. However, there are talented options behind McCarron. Phillip Simswill be a redshirt sophomore, and despite being a couple inches shorter than AJ, is also a pocket passer sort. He was a 4.5 star out of high school (5 on Scout, 4 on Rivals), as you would expect. As mentioned, he did see some time in the opener last season before ceding the position to McCarron, only seeing garbage time snaps thereafter against Ole Miss, Tennessee, Arkansas, North Texas, and Vanderbilt. He has a bigger arm than McCarron, but obviously the offensive staff felt more comfortable rolling with McCarron in 2011, and that seems to have worked out nicely for Alabama.
After Sims, there is 3rd-stringer Phillip Ely, who redshirted in 2011. There's not much use in going too in depth here, but, FWIW, he's 6'1'' 198 and also of the pro-style mold, choosing Alabama over LSU and Clemson, among other suitors.
General Spring Minutiae/Encomium That Results In a Bristling Saban
You would think that a program like Alabama would strive to have a close to the vest and completely uninteresting spring game, but, surprisingly, Alabama aired it out quite a bit during the A-Day game.
McCarron went 29/42, good for 304 yards and two TDs and three picks.
Sims has been dealing with shoulder issues all spring, missing out on some valuable spring reps in regular practices and previous scrimmages. However, he did participate during A-Day, going 9/12 for 135 yards and two scores (although both touchdowns were short passes that TJ Yeldon and Chris Black converted into long touchdowns plays). Quoth Saban:
"I thought he looked a little rusty in the beginning, but definitely played better in the third quarter," said Alabama coach Nick Saban, who stressed that Sims still wasn't 100 percent. "He made some big plays, and that's good."
Ah, spring ball. It's all about as stimulating as your average episode of Entourage (which, if you're confused, means "not at all stimulating").
Things Think About/Watch Out For/ARE WE GONNA DIE?
As usual, the ARE WE GONNA DIE answer comes first: maybe. That is, if the ground game is churning along like it did in 2011--despite having replaced a Rimington finalist at center and a Heisman finalist at tailback--then McCarron will likely have a McCarronian game, meaning something like a completion percentage of 65-70%, between 200 and 250 yards, and 2+ TD passes with no picks. Additionally, the receiving corps, as already described, is potentially the biggest question mark on this team other than maybe the linebackers. Of course, by "question mark" I mean they might not be MNC caliber but still very, very good. So, most of what goes into the consideration of McCarron's 2012 prospects don't actually revolve around McCarron himself.
I have no doubt that Barrett Jones could be an All-American at his new position by the end of the year, but you'd have to imagine that there might be some center exchange issues early on in the season. It's pretty unfortunate that this is one of the few things we can reasonably entertain with respect to things we can feel positive about vis-a-vis the Alabama offense. The center position is obviously very different from either the guard or tackle positions, so Michigan's issues up the middle might be slightly mitigated if Jones makes a few mistakes with his calls and on snaps come September 1st.
What kind of new wrinkles will new offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier bust out that we may not have seen under former OC--and new CSU head coach--Jim McElwain? The word around spring ball from AJ has basically been NOPE NOTHING'S CHANGED THE PROCESS CONTINUES ON UNCEASING AND UNBROKEN. Okay, not exactly like that, but basically like that. I would think that Alabama would like to save its sneakier wrinkles for SEC play, but if Mattison figures out a way to slow down the run then we might see some things from Washington's playbook the last few years come to Tuscaloosa (uh, Arlington, I guess).
Meaningless Grade That I Will Give Out Anyway
There's no quarterback controversy, and the starter is coming off a season in which he caretakered/game managed Alabama to a MNC season. Phillip Sims (not that Sims) is a solid if inexperienced backup. I'll go with a solid B+ here; McCarron is much better than Michigan fans will probably give him credit for throughout this summer, but he is also not a star and probably isn't a guy that can win the game by himself, but, then again, Alabama doesn't ask him to do that and the only game that sort of forced him to try to get outside of himself was the first LSU game. But, given the structure of the offense and Alabama football as a whole--play defense, run the ball, don't make mistakes--handing out any sort of grade is more meaningless for this position than for perhaps any other. McCarron has seen it all at this point; it will take a good helping of coordinatin' sorcery on Mattison's part to hold this offense in check in order to give Denard et al a chance at notching the upset.
And with that, that's it for the offense. Due to being in Ann Arbor for graduation festivities this coming week, you'll have to wait till next week for the thrilling conclusion to these previews*, in which I'll take at a look at which future NFL first-rounders will replace the guys that are about to be first round draft picks on the defensive side of the ball for the Tide.
*That is, if this Blackhawks-Coyotes series doesn't knock me dead first...HHNNNGGGGGGiest series ever.
Hello, Internet. I am Fouad Egbaria, a Michigan grad ('11) and recent graduate of the MSJ program at Northwestern's Medill School of Journalism. This is a blog that attempts to analyze the highs and lows of Michigan football and basketball; I'm just trying to capture the spirit of the thing. I will also write about general Big Ten news, as well as Chicago professional sports (from time to time).
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