Alabama Preview: Banking On The One

Brief note: I will attempt ("attempt" being the key word) to have these preview posts up on Friday each week around lunchtime. The grad school thing may prevent that from happening, but we'll see how it goes. I should be good to go for about the first month...after that, things might get a little dicier. 

The Exposition

Time: 8 ET, ABC
Place: Cowboys Stadium--Arlington, TX
Line: Alabama -13.5
Mood: !!!!!!!+unceasing anxiety

I spent my high school years in Alabama, coinciding exactly with the Mike Shula era. This was a few months after the Mike Price fiasco, not to mention Dennis Franchione's controversial departure for Texas A&M a few months before that. Add NCAA sanctions to the mix and a new head coach in Shula* (who had been a career NFL guy to that point, and never a head coach), and you could say that things were not turning up Milhouse.

At the same time, my high school years as a Michigan fan were about as good as you could ask of your program within a 4-year window. John Navarre went out and won a Big Ten championship in 2003 to spite his squawking detractors, and Chad Henne rode piggybacked on Braylon Edwards's back in 2004 en route to another one. The 2005 season, "The Year of Infinite Pain", according to Brian, was a paper cut compared to the total system breakdown that was the Rich Rodriguez era. My final season as a high schooler was the 2006 season, of which I don't need to tell you about.

Michigan going 0-4 in its bowl games during that time put a bit of a damper on things, but it was an all around great time to be a Michigan fan, especially one living in Alabama. In retrospect, it seems almost unthinkable for Alabama to have a 4-win season and two 6-win seasons in a 4-year span, but it happened between 2003 and 2006.

Enter Nick Saban, and that's enough of that whole losing and not being mistake-free cybernetic organisms thing. Say what you will about oversigning, but there is no denying that Saban is one of the best defensive minds in the game. In five seasons, Saban has compiled a 55-12 record; half of those losses came in his first season. Simply put, Alabama has been the best team in the country since Saban arrived in Tuscaloosa.

Needless to say, in nine years, a whole lot has changed; this isn't 2003, anymore.

*Amusingly, he is now the QB coach for the Carolina Panthers, coaching one Cam Newton. Life has a funny way of working out sometimes.

Michigan Offense vs. Alabama Defense 
A note: I started writing this on Tuesday. I am assuming that Toussaint is not going to play, for what it's worth. The same goes for Frank Clark. 

It's hard to decide which Michigan unit has a better chance of getting anything done in this game. As I detailed throughout the summer, this Alabama team is about as talented and athletic as you would expect. So, what's the catch? There is a catch, right?

Maybe, maybe not. Ask any Alabama fan about their defense and they will talk to you about RELOADING and 5-star recruits everywhere and how this ain't 2010 (when Alabama had to replace a similar amount of premium defensive talent and then went on to have a "disappointing" 3-loss season). Well, most of it is in fact true. Alabama is talented, and at certain positions, they will rotate guys in and out with relative ease.

However, some Alabama fans are just being unreasonable. I'm sorry. That's not to say that Alabama's defense won't be good (keep in mind that that 2010 defense was still very good) because they absolutely will, or that a defense that is a cut or two below last year's wouldn't still hold Michigan to a relatively low point total.

The simple fact is, no, Alabama fans, your defense will not be as good as last year's was. Then again, last year's defense was historically good, not just good in the context of the 2011 season. Some slippage can be reasonably expected, especially when replacing 7 defensive starters. Yes, I do understand that some of the players replacing these guys have seen some game action (for example, starting corner Dee Milliner), but not all of these guys have gotten meaningful playing time. Adrian Hubbard at SLB, Quinton Dial (was a rotational type guy last year that will be a half-starter along with Ed Stinson at one end position), Deion Belue is a JUCO guy in his first season in Tuscaloosa and a starting corner, Vinnie Sunseri is a true sophomore who did play some last season but has enormous shoes to fill at strong safety, etc.

As you probably know by know, Nick Saban is an evil genius whose defenses run with Gradgrindian efficiency; it's going to be "hard times"** for Michigan indeed if the OL consistently lets rushers through en route to clean shots on Denard. That cannot happen, especially early on in the contest. Nick Saban's Alabama defenses are known for their base 3-4, but Alabama is a fairly "multiple" team. The will also likely throw the 4-3 at us, the 5-2 (with two "Jack"*** linebackers on the field at once), and passing downs have their own special wrinkles for nickle packages. Alabama will throw a lot of different things, and Borges has ostensibly does his homework on all of them. That said, being ready to combat and execute these defensive looks is another battle entirely. FWIW, here's a useful video of Saban explaining the basis for the "Star" and "Money" positions in Alabama's nickel and dime looks.

Some Crimson Tide defenders to focus on at each level of the defense: 6'4'' 320 lb. senior NG Jesse Williams (he's a position switcher moving over from end, although he did play nose in his JUCO days), 6'2'' 232 lb. junior CJ Mosley at ILB (he's not nominally a starter but he basically is based on how much he will actually play, especially against a spread spread-ish team like Michigan), and 6'0'' 215 sophomore strong saftey Vinnie Sunseri (son of a coach!). Mosley in particular is a player to pay attention to when he's on the field. He's not technically a starter, but he's probably Alabama's best linebacker, and he will be on the field in passing situations. He's also Alabama's fastest backer, so expect him to do a lot of this when Denard does dump it off:

Don't get me wrong, I love Vincent Smith, but I'm not sure he will be able to shake Mosley on the edge. However, I think a guy like Justice Hayes could do some damage in this capacity, although that is admittedly based purely on recruiting hype at this point.

If Michigan (i.e. Barnum+Omameh/Mealer) cannot contain the Balrog that is Jesse Williams from getting into the backfield or render him irrelevant by attacking the edges and taking our chances there, it's going to be a long, long day. Remember this picture?

With the pressure that Alabama is sure to bring with the Jack linebacker, bringing Sunseri down into the box, and all other sorts of defensive sorcery, things could very well look like the picture above. I think Denard would agree with me: that is not something we want to happen. Alabama has spent the last few weeks talking about how they're coming for Denard, and why wouldn't they? Unless propelled by magic (4th quarter of the ND game, the entire VT game), if you key on Denard and force him to pass, things probably get ugly. Obviously, that is easier said than done, since not every team has the pure talent to force Michigan's hand in that way. Alabama, like Michigan State, certainly does.

Analogy time! Hoke:defensive line coaching::Nick Saban:defensive backs. Saban and DC Kirby Smart have supreme confidence in their DBs, which is not unreasonable given the talent they have at their disposal and the fact that Saban might be the best and most meticulous teacher of DB technique in the country. It's his special pet project amongst all other coaching duties, much like the DL is to Hoke.

A perfect example of this confidence is the Cover 1 Robber defense, which Chris Brown of Smart Football discussed in his book released earlier this summer (and summarized excellently by this MGoBlog diary). Alabama will put its corners in man coverage with regularity, and this decision is only strengthened by the fact that Michigan's top two receivers are Roy Roundtree and Jeremy Gallon. No offense to either player, but I imagine that neither exactly strikes fear in Saban's robot ersatz heart.

Want to see the Cover 1 Robber in action? You have seen it before, and I apologize in advance for this. If you'll remember, I recently linked to this excellent post from The Only Colors on the now infamous Double A-Gap blitz. Therein, a discussion of one variant, the Cover 1 Robber, was explained in detail. Guess which play that was:

As surprisingly complicated and variegated as that particular blitz is, you can be sure that Alabama has many like this one lined up and ready to go. Denard et al need to have their hot route cues down pat, or the above will very likely occur at some point.

I don't think that Michigan will have much success attacking the middle with the ground game...at least early on. Alabama stuffed everyone, even LSU's paleolithic but effective power running game, and I think that we should expect different results. I don't think that Borges is foolish enough to do this, but if Michigan lines up in the I and attempts to run any sort of traditional power run, you can bet that thousands of Michigan fans will all be throwing up their hands in unison. Unless we're in a short yardage or goal line situation, Michigan cannot afford to waste precious plays by plugging away up the middle. This isn't the 1990s: lightning bolts will not rain down on your head if you don't run to set up the pass.

The problem with that is Michigan has Denard Robinson, who, aside from being a transcendent runner with a fantastic smile, has had some basic mechanical issues in the passing game, not mention trouble reading defenses and reacting to pressure. All of these things do sound like a recipe for disaster against a defense like Alabama's, but we have to assume that Denard has improved throughout the offseason. Playing like he did against Nebraska and Ohio State would be a start, but that's all it would be. The same gaping holes that were there against the Huskers and Buckeyes likely won't be there against Alabama, and if they are they will be closing up a little more quickly.

So, what are the options? Really, there aren't many that don't involve pinpoint execution and, quite frankly, not getting blown back at the point of attack. If either happen, it's over. An UTL-esque miracle is just not going to happen against this team.

**ELITIST REFERENCES PAWLLLL
***FYI, the JLB is basically the pass-rushing linebacker; last year, it was Courtney Upshaw.

Michigan Defense vs. Alabama Offense 

We've had a couple relatively surprising moves on the defensive side of the ball come to light in the last week. First, Quinton Washington will be playing at the nose position and starting. Next to him is William Campbell, who was going to be play nose until the coaches eventually came to the realization that Black at the 3-tech just wasn't going to work. As such, BWC to the 3-tech and Black back to WDE it is. We won't truly know what the two-deep is actually like until the games begin, but, for now, Black's move is one more obstacle between Mario Ojemudia having to take the field against an Alabama team with a Brobdingnagian offensive line.

Speaking of the offensive line: they are huge. I previewed this position group way back in early April, and not much has changed (actually, nothing has). If you didn't already know, 2011 All-American LT Barrett Jones made the move to center to make room for Cyrus Kouandjio, which speaks to how highly the coaches think of the latter. This is the second move that Jones has mode (he was once a guard), so while position switches are often uncomfortable propositions, Jones has always been lauded as a smart guy and should be more than alright.

Alabama has a bevy of talented tailbacks and wide receivers. Like the secondary and linebackers, experience is the primary issue with most of these guys, although they are by no means completely green. None of these guys are Trent Richardson or Julio Jones, but they might not need to be if the ground game has worn Michigan down as I'm sure Alabama is intending to do.

You probably know about Eddie Lacy by now. He was Alabama's #3 in 2010, Richardson's backup last season, and should be the feature back this season. A pesky injury kept him out of most of spring ball, IIRC (including the A-Day scrimmage), and has still seemed to be banged up as recently as the last week or two. I linked to a video of him doing a short drill with a fairly significant amount of tape on his ankle, which may or may not mean anything.

Saban has used the words "day-to-day", and the fact that he'd be "ready to go in 5 or 6 days"...he said this on August 18th. The more time that passes, the more I get the feeling that he won't be 100% on 9/1. If that is the case, our old friend RS freshman Dee Hart and true freshman TJ Yeldon become the next guys in line. Jalston Fowler, Alabama's #3 last year and the Tide's top mooseback, appears to have made the move to H-back, where walk-on Kelly Johnson has won the starting role in what can be considered the shocker of fall camp (it hasn't been that exciting of a fall camp). Johnson has big shoes to fill, as the H-back is a very important player in Alabama's offense, which should basically stay the same despite the hiring of former Washington OC Doug Nussmeier (last year's OC, Jim McElwain, departed for the Colorado State head coaching job). Brad Smelley was a big time target for McCarron last season on key third downs (he was Alabama's second-most productive receiver in 2011). It's unreasonable to expect Johnson to be as good as Smelley, but he did win the starting nod, so he must be doing something right.

At receiver, Alabama appears to be rolling with 6'0'' 185 sophomore DeAndrew White and 6'2'' 195 junior Kevin Norwood at the "X" and "Z" positions, with 5'11'' 185 sophomore Christion Jones taking the "H" receiver position (i.e. the slot). I was somewhat surprised to see White win the starting over Kenny Bell, Alabama's leading returning receiver, but I'm not sure that it matters much. Bell is a physical, athletic receiver, and McCarron looked to him downfield on occasion last year. AJ and Bell hooked up for a 39-yard and 41-yard TD against Tennessee and Auburn (a flea flicker, FWIW) respectively. Fast forward to 0:35 in the video below to see this in action.

Anywho, Alabama has more, but to continue to name them would be overkill. Here's the thing. Alabama's offense is a little more complicated than it may seem, but in the end this game will be all about those things that make us roll our eyes when guys like Merill Hoge talk about them: toughness, resilience, the ability to bend but not break, completely unironic GRIT. If Michigan is going to get this done, it probably won't be pretty. Alabama will pick up yards on the ground and, inevitably, through the air when Mattison is forced to bring increasingly crazier and riskier blitzes. However, if Michigan can hunker down once Alabama cross the M's 30, not unlike the Sugar Bowl, then I'm saying there's a chance.

I mentioned this back when I took a look at Alabama's quarterbacks and I'll say it again: McCarron is a better player than many Michigan fans are probably giving him credit for. He's a solid player, and yeah, sure, having that team around him certainly helps. However, all you need to do to realize that being a QB for such a team is not so easy is to recall LSU's 2011 season. The quarterbacking during the national title game was so rough that folks with no stake in the result of the game (me, for example) began to plead all over the Internet for Les Miles to PUT IN THE OTHER GUY, a guy who is often known as Jarrett "Pick 6" Lee.

I mentioned that moving QW to nose and Black back to WDE was kind of like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic, but the more thought I give this configuration, the more I like it. That is 600+ pounds (607 according to MGoBlog's Fall Roster Overanalysis) of human being there in the middle. Will it be enough against an interior trio of Chance Warmack, Barrett Jones, and Anthony Steen? Maybe not, but I like Michigan's chances much better with QW than Black.

As for the ends, there was once a point when I was fairly optimistic about this group. Now, not so much. I'm having visions in my head of Beyer and Roh getting handled by Fluker and Kouandjio in the ground game and getting stonewalled in the pass rush, and who knows what kind of player Black will be after adding weight and spending so much practice time on the inside. At this point, any sort of pass rush that Michigan can get from the these guys is gravy, which is a pretty ominous thing to have to say.

With that said, things are rosier in the back 7 for Michigan. As far as tight ends go, Michael Williams is Alabama's starter. He doesn't seem to be anything extraordinary, but he is by no means a liability or anything. He was a red zone target against Penn State last season (and also the recipient of a fake field goal TD pass that Ace linked to here).

Otherwise, I feel pretty confident that Michigan's 'backers will match up in coverage. The only catch is the Williams is 6'6'' and a biscuit under 270. OF COURSE HE IS. When Alabama has Williams and an H-back in the game, odds are you are about to get smashed in the face. He's a blocker and possible red zone guy...basically, what we all hope AJ Williams will one day become.

I feel confident enough in Michigan's safeties not giving up the dreaded big play for the first half or so. But...after that, especially if Alabama has racked up enough yardage that plays like the above dart to Bell can happen? That is the moment that the game is over.

What Needs to Happen, Fergodsakes
On defense:

• Say it with me now: bend but don't break. I'm sure Mattison has some tricks up his sleeve, but tricks can only do so much when the other team is simply bigger and faster. Michigan is not going to win the stat sheet battle. If Mattison's defense gives up 500 yards and manages to hold Alabama under 31, there is hope. Make them kick field goals (see: 2011 LSU game, Part 1). 
• Countess and Floyd. Please be in pre-OSU/VT form. Alabama has quite a few talented players at receiver, but I'm not really convinced that there is a star among them (certainly not a Julio type). This goes without saying, but given the probably lack of a front four pass rush, JT and Blake will be on an island more fairly often. The good news is that, after a year of Mattison's diabolical blitzes and aggressiveness verging on over-aggressiveness, they're probably up to the challenge. 
• Quinton and William. To put it simply, if these two look like they're on skates, there is simply no hope. Again, you can only scheme and mitigate your weaknesses so much. As Saturday approaches, I've become increasingly confident that they'll be able to hold up at least adequately; whether the linebackers can shed Warmack and Steen and tackle the ball carrier--whether an all-around talent like Lacy or a darty sort like Hart--is another story entirely. For the record, I'm fairly confident that Demens, Morgan, and Ryan will do a decent job. Jake Ryan, after QW and BWC, might be the most important player on Michigan's entire team in this game. 

On offense: 

• No turnovers please. If Michigan turns the ball over, chances are a win is not happening. The margin for error is razor thin. 
• Get the passing game going early. My nightmare is that Michigan comes out, plugs away on the ground, fails miserably and then sees everything spiral out of control as Michigan tries to pass its way back in the game with a guy like Denard. The slant will be there, and Borges will call upon that old standby, the throwback screen to Gallon to start pushing the Alabama linebackers and safeties away from the LOS. Naturally, if that happens, that's where Denard goes to work. If there's 9 in the box, forget about it
• Devin Gardner. The wild card-iest wild card who ever wild card'd. If he is a legitimate force at receiver, that could change everything. To be quite honest, after Milliner, the rest of Alabama's corners don't impress me as much as Alabama's new linebackers do. Also, I need to see Sunseri and Clinton-Dix in action before I deem them the second coming of Ronnie Lott. I think that Michigan might get some mileage out of the so called "QB Oh Noes" play, as Brian calls it, what with Sunseri looking to be an involved and aggressive player in the run game. Borges needs to scheme against that position. 
• Attack the edge, quickly. Yes, SEC speed and all that, but I think that it's just about a waste of time to try (past a token effort) to develop a between-the-tackles running game, at least in the first quarter or so. Michigan needs to be creative in its ground game, kind of like it was against Ohio State last November. Get numbers going to the edges and let's see how those pseudo-newbies at linebacker handle Denard. WR end arounds. Denard jet sweeps. 
• Trick plays. Let's see 'em. Seriously, Al. 2008 Capital One Bowl Redux, this needs to be. 

Predictions of Negligible Worth 
Making these sorts of predictions, especially for a game like this, is a torturous thing. A prediction is not really one data point that you pluck out of thin air. It's a deliberate whittling down of all results from a giant marble slab of possibility. My point: could I see everything going perfectly, Alabama having a bad day, and Michigan eeking out an incredibly ugly yet satisfying Sugar Bowl-esque win? Yes, I honestly can. Alabama is talented, and it speaks to the state of things that Michigan is such an underdog in spite of all the big name players that Alabama lost. In two or three years, this game will be an even contest going in, but we're not quite there yet. Still, this is a good Michigan team, and not one that should be underestimated.

With that said, too many things have to go well for Michigan to win this game. Michigan will probably need to have a turnover margin of at least +2. How likely is this? If this game is played ten times, Michigan probably has everything fall into place maybe once. That's what it is. We're banking on that one, that unlikely scenario, the "Jareth Glanda catching a pass" of games.

As much as it pains me to say it, I just can't make that prediction. To be able to stick it to the reigning national champs, the team that I had to spend four years hearing about as a high schooler, would be something beyond tremendous, if such a superlative even existed.

In the end, Michigan keeps it close for the first half, but without Toussaint, Michigan just won't have enough juice to keep enough drives going to make it a game. Even with Fitz, I'm not sure that Michigan has enough. It won't be pretty, but it won't be an outright blowout. At the same time, I don't think it will necessarily be "close." Michigan is a 13.5 point underdog, which, sadly, is just about right.

Score: Alabama 31, Michigan 17

Profilin' the Tide: Defensive Line

Previously: General Offensive Preview, Offensive Line, Tailbacks, Wide receivers, Tight Ends, and H-backs, Quarterbacks, General Defensive Preview 
As we shift our focus to the defense, it's best to start up front. The defensive line in the 3-4 is fairly underappreciated as a collective entity; without a strong one, guys like Hightower and Upshaw don't look nearly as good. Alabama linebackers get all the love from the media (and NFL general managers), but the line is what makes all of that possible in the first place. For quick and easy reference, here is the post-spring unofficial depth chart from Roll Bama Roll. 


Alabama loses a couple key players from last year's championship team (NTs Josh Chapman and Nick Gentry); Chapman's starting role is being filled by Jesse Williams, whom had made the move over from defensive end.  Gentry was a solid rotational type guy on the inside, contributing 20 tackles, 3.5 sacks, and 5 TFL in his 11 game appearances last season. 


Luckily for Alabama, they do return quite a few faces from last year's team. This won't be a completely inexperienced group by any means, and you can imagine that they will still be supremely talented, even if it doesn't always manifest itself on the stat sheet. 


The Starters 
As mentioned a number of times before, Jesse Williams (6-4, 320) is taking his talents to the middle of the defensive line after playing out the last two seasons at SDE. Normal position switch caveats indicate that no matter how good a player is, switching positions will lead to at least a little slippage in productivity. In this situation, however, I don't think it's all that wise to get your hopes up. 

Yeah, that's Jesse Williams...of course. 

Williams looks the part, and I can't imagine that we will necessarily feel physically overwhelmed at any point in the season, let alone against the interior of Michigan's offensive line (the trio of Mealer-Barnum-Omameh aren't exactly Baas-Pearson-Lentz). Still, a lack of game experience in the position is a lack of game experience, and Michigan might be able to use Williams's own strength and momentum against him with a steady diet of zone runs and quick, West Coasty passes that Al Borges probably dreams about (no bubble screens, obviously...they're undignified). 

Williams on the position switch: 

"It's a bit more close quarters as far as people, a lot more crunching with a lot of different people instead of just going with the tackle or the gap," Williams said. "It's not too serious."

If you feel like killing just under 6 minutes, here's a video of Williams taking on blocks and doing the general yeoman work--"crunching"--that a 3-4 lineman has to do. 

At the strong side end position, Quinton Dial (6-6, 304) looks to fill Williams' old spot. Dial, a 2009 recruit who had to go the JUCO route before qualifying at Alabama, played his first season with the Tide last year. Although his official profile indicates that he played nose guard at Mississippi Community College, he is a SDE with pass rushing being his forte. However, he only notched 1 sack last season (against Kent State) in his role as a reserve player. He did also tally 24 tackles, 10 of them of the solo variety. 

Damion Square (6-3, 286) will man the other end position. Unlike Dial, the redshirt senior Square is a veteran player for the Crimson Tide. After tearing his ACL in 2009, Square came back to play in all 13 games in 2010 (starting 6 of them) and starting every game last season. If this was MGoBlog, Damion Square would be a "trusted user." 

Square notched 30 tackles, 7 TFL, and 1 sack in 2011. 

The Replacements 

On first glance, there is quite a bit of youth and inexperience backing up the aforementioned starters. On second glance, well...there's still a lot of youth and inexperience sitting on the depth chart behind Square, Williams, and Dial. 


Backing up Williams in the middle is redshirt-sophomore-to-be Brandon Ivory. Ivory is the rare former generic 3-star on the Alabama defense. According to his rolltide.com profile, he was a late commitment, choosing Alabama over Memphis and Southern Miss, which is not unlike choosing to eat at Ruth's Chris over Rally's and Hardee's. Ivory did play some last year, but not a whole lot is known about him at this point, other than the fact that he's appropriately sized for the NT position (6-4, 315). 


Dial's main understudy appears to be Ed Stinson, who started out his Alabama career at the Jack linebacker position. Unlike Ivory, Stinson has some useful game experience. After redshirting in 2009, Stinson notched two starts in 2010. Perhaps the most impressive performance of his career came at home against Penn State, during which he tallied a team high 9 total tackles (5 solos, all on running plays), and a pair of QB hurries. The Nittany Lions couldn't do much at all that day; Stinson's play was a big factor in that (another reason: Rob Bolden). He's dubbed a "consistent run-stopper and a good pass rusher." Personally, I would not be surprised to see him take over the starting role from Dial (which might as well be a nominal designation at this point anyway), although I have to point out that that is just my own opinion; I'm not sure if that sentiment is reflected by Alabama fans. In any case, as the 2010 PSU game demonstrates, Stinson is a guy that can have a significant impact on a game, even in a non-starting role. 

Ed Stinson

Spelling Damion Square at the other end spot is Jeoffrey Pagan, who wears a single digit number, thus reflexively calling to mind other world destroying defensive ends, such as former Gator Carlos Dunlap and Jadeveon Clowney. For whatever reason, I see a single digit number on an SEC team and think "yup, that's a first round draft pick," and I'd probably say this even if the guy had knees constructed solely of Golden Flake potato chips. 


While it's obviously too early to anoint Pagan the next great Alabama lineman, early returns are encouraging. As a recruit, his offer list was a veritable who's who of college football, a list that includes "Norte Dame." Norte Dame exists in an alternate universe in which Tommy Reese doesn't turn the ball over, Freekbass doesn't exist, and bowl victories are so plentiful as to be exorbitant. 


Additionally, Pagan, a true freshman in 2011, did get on the field some. He made six appearances last season, tallying 4 total tackles in the process. I'm not sure how much of a role he'll have on September 1st, but I'd look for him to at least appear in every game this season. 


As far as experienced backups go, Undra Billingsley will be a redshirt senior in 2012 and has seen game action in just about every single game the past two seasons at defensive end. Re: 2011 recruits, DJ Pettway and LaMichael Fanning look to figure into the rotation this season after taking redshirts last year. 


As far as the incoming class goes, Nick Saban apparently recruited defensive tackles like RR recruited Lilliputian slot receivers. Given the nature of the 3-4, I'd imagine that there is some significant flexibility there with respect to a high school DT being either a college NT or a SDE. The Tide signed a whopping five DTs in the 2012 class (3 3-stars, 2 4-stars), and understandably so. Alabama had to move Jesse Williams to the interior despite ideally wanting to keep him at end, and it doesn't appear that there is much in the way of established quality backing Williams up. With that said, I'm not sure that any of the incoming recruits here deserve specific mention, mostly because I doubt any of them notch meaningful time on September 1st. 


General Spring Minutiae/Encomium That Results In A Bristling Saban 


Spring practice has long since ended, so this section may or may not be obsolete at this point. Regardless, Damion Square has some nice things to say (i.e. boilerplate spring talk) about the new iteration of the Alabama defensive line: 

“We are very big but very athletic,” Square said of the defensive linemen. “Not saying that the guys before weren’t athletic but these guys -- pretty much all across the board they can play any position up front and get the job done.” 

 He may be right re: athleticism, but the whole "last year's guys were good and all but look at us now" isn't a new thing. Let's not forget that Alabama won a national championship last season.

On the heels of the A-Day game, RBR had this to say about the DL:

On the defensive side of the ball, the rotation at defensive end was as strong as expected, holding up well at the point of attack and disrupting numerous plays against quality competition. Jesse Williams was very impressive at nose guard, but here too depth remains a legitimate question. Brandon Ivory looks to be taking a step in the right direction, as does Jeoffrey Pagan, but whether either of them could be called upon to anchor the line against top-flight SEC competition is unknown. Both need more time in the strength and conditioning program and better hand work. 

Jeoffrey Pagan notched a pair of sacks in the A-Day game. Otherwise, the rest is boilerplate spring talk.  The line performed admirably for the most part, working to hold Jalston Fowler to 22 yards on eight carries. TJ Yeldon did rack up 189 yards of total offense, but he was playing with the second-team offense.

Things To Think About/Watch Out For/ARE WE GONNA DIE?

• As usual, starting with the question first: maybe, but probably (hopefully) not. That's not to say that Alabama's defensive is not very good, it's just that it's not as world destroying as you might imagine. Also, it's important to remember that any issues either team might have will be underscored by the simple fact that this is the first game of the season. 
• As mentioned before, but can Jesse Williams get acclimated to the nose in time for the Michigan game? Again, no matter how good Williams was at end, playing nose is a completely different animal. Williams's size and/or general modus operandi as a player lead one to believe that he'll be just fine, but until you see a guy do it on the field he remains somewhat of a question mark. With that said, if he's absorbing or splitting double teams from Barnum and whomever with regularity, Michigan might not get into the double digits in this game. That is, of course, the worst case scenario. 
• Damion Square seems to be locked in at one of the end positions, but other side seems slightly open-ended. Quinton Dial appears to be the starter as of right now, but Ed Stinson showed some serious ability in his first year on the line (after moving from the JLB position). Both have seen playing time, and while not exactly the most experienced players ever, they are certainly not green. This will be a position to monitor once fall practice starts. 
• Alabama is as athletic as you'd imagine them to be on the defensive line. The odd man front presents a different sort of challenge for Denard Robinson and Al Borges. With Williams in the middle and speed up the edges, Michigan will need to bring arguably its most creative gameplan since the Capital One Bowl against Florida if it wants to put up enough points to have a chance to win this game. 

Meaningless Grade That I Will Give Out Anyway 

Alabama's situation up front is not nearly as dire as Michigan's; however, questions still remain, questions that likely won't be answered until Michigan and Alabama hit the field on September 1st. Although Jesse Williams looks to be another standout in a long line of ground game destroying interior defensive linemen, he is still relatively new to the game of football. As such, it's not unreasonable to expect some growing pains with this position switch. Additionally, the rest of the depth chart at the position is not exactly that much rosier than what Michigan is currently staring in the face. 

On the bright side, Alabama does have a lot more depth at end. Damion Square and Dial/Stinson should provide a nice run-stopping presence paired with good pass rushing ability. There's a bevy of talented options, young and old, backing up the starters here, and Michigan should expect to see at least a couple of them on gameday. 

Again, meaningless grade and all, but I'm going with a B+ here. This line will be pretty good when all is said and done, but I don't get the feeling that this is a unit that will completely outclass Michigan's offensive line. With that said, if the opposite turns out to be true, then this game will turn out to be an ugly, losing version of the Sugar Bowl. 

Profilin' the Tide: The Defense

Previously: General Offensive Preview, Offensive Line, Tailbacks, Wide receivers, Tight Ends, and H-backs, Quarterbacks

OH MY GAWD THAT'S HIGHTOWER'S MUSIC RUNNNNNNNNN 

oh phew he's gone nevermind

Having already taken a look at the Alabama offense and asking some questions about Doug Nussmeier, the wide receivers, and whether or not WE ARE GONNA DIE, it's time to shift our focus to the defense. While I would argue that the Alabama offense of the last few years--while not exactly "flashy"--has been just as dangerous and important to their success as the defense, people of course look to the defense first in any discussion of the Crimson Tide. This is rightfully so, because my goodness they have been earth-shatteringly good.

Say what you will about Nick Saban's ethics, but the man (as well as his righthand man Kirby Smart) know defense like a Michigan Man knows righteous indignation. Before I say anything, I think it's important to put a certain fanciful notion to rest: Alabama will not not be really good on defense this year, even with the long list of NFL departures in mind. Yes, oversigning and all that, but it's a testament to the strength of the Alabama's program that the defense will likely be very good again in spite of losses like Courtney Upshaw, Mark Barron, Dont'a Hightower, etc. Keep in mind that we Michigan fans are worrying about the defense (well, the DL, mostly), and we lost three defensive linemen, only one of whom was drafted, and Troy "Don't Call Me Woolfork" Woolfolk. That's not meant to be disparaging for obvious reasons, but it is true. Michigan will get there eventually. There was once a time when Michigan simply "reloaded", but we are not at that point just yet; Alabama is.

You probably already know all of this, but, for the sake of this post, a brief rundown of Alabama's losses on defense is necessary. Alabama lost the following players to the NFL: JLB (Jack linebacker) Courtney Upshaw, ILB Dont'a Hightower, CB Dre Kirkpatrick, strong safety Mark Barron, CB De'Quan Menzie, OLB Jerrell Harris, and NG Josh Chapman. It goes without saying, but I'll just go ahead and say it anyway: that is a lot of departing talent.

Of those losses, three went in the first round (Barron, Kirkpatrick, and Upshaw), with a fourth being selected with the 3rd pick of the second round (Hightower). Two others, Chapman and Menzie, went in the fifth round. Harris was the lone undrafted player of the bunch (of course, that does not mean that he was not very, very good).

As such, Alabama is looking to replace:

• 3 linebackers: the "Jack" linebacker position, the name for the hybrid DE/OLB position in Bama's 3-4, the SLB, and one of two ILB spots
• Both corners
• Strong safety
• Nose guard (which will be filled by Jesse Williams, who started last year at SDE)

Lastly, if you can't already tell from the above or didn't know before...yes, Alabama runs the 3-4 that certain NFL teams have used on their way to Super Bowls. This doesn't look like it's embeddable, but here's a brief video of Saban talking about the 3-4 defense. I'm probably not the one qualified to do this, but an explanation of the schematics of the 3-4 would be a useful exercise at some point before September 1st. 

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You might be reading this and thinking "YES, HOKEMANIA'S GETTIN' READY TO RUN WILD ON YOU, ALABAMA." Not so fast, my friend. This type of mass defensive exodus is not unprecedented. As you probably remember, after winning the national championship two seasons ago, Alabama lost quite a bit of defensive talent to the NFL. In the 2010 NFL draft, Alabama lost: DT Terrence Cody, CB (and punt returner extraordinaire) Javier Arenas, CB Kareem Jackson, LB Rolando McClain, and safety Marquis Johnson, DE Brandon Deaderick, and DE Lorenzo Washington. 

By round, the aforementioned players went in the first round (2), second round (2), seventh round (2), and undrafted (1). So, just like this year, Alabama had to replace seven starters/significant contributors in 2010. Of course, Alabama did not have a championship season in 2010. As you will also remember, the Tide went 10-3 (5-3) that year, taking losses @South Carolina, @ LSU, and at home in the Iron Bowl when Cam Newton decided to officially lock up the Heisman Trophy in the second half.

Alabama then went on to absolutely destroy #9 Michigan State, 49-7, in the Citrus Capital One Bowl. I am obviously not a Spartan fan, but even I have to cringe a little bit when I think about that game. It was not pretty.

This is all to say that Alabama was still really, really good in 2010 despite having a "down" year. The loss at South Carolina was the only "bad" loss of that year, as the Gamecocks finished the season 9-5 (although they did represent the SEC East in the Georgia Dome that year). Playing at Death Valley (no, not you Clemson) is a tough thing in almost any year, but LSU wasn't exactly a middling squad year; the Tigers finished the year 11-2 (5-2), with their only losses coming at the hands of Cam Newton and Arkansas in one of many "somewhat inexplicable Les Miles losses to Arkansas in the Battle for the Golden Boot." Alabama lost that one at LSU by, you guessed it...a field goal, 24-21, a game in which which both SECW powerhouses were ranked in the top 10. Also of note: Alabama was without Barrett Jones, then still at the left tackle spot, for the last two games of that season against Georgia State and, more importantly, Auburn. 

In short, the only loss that year worthy of a paddlin' was the one at South Carolina, a team led by the man known as Stephen Garcia (although he doesn't normally go by that name because, you know, who needs to be held down by the unchill tyranny of "names," man?). That game, in addition to the second half against Auburn, were the lone examples of the Alabama defense showing any semblance of mortality. This is a bit disconcerting. Many Alabama fans likely remember that season as a failure, but that team could have very easily been looking at another national title game appearance, or, at the very least another SEC title, which is no small feat in and of itself. 

In short, there is a precedent for what Nick Saban and Alabama will be attempting to do with the defense this season. Does this mean that Alabama will actually be that good again this season in spite of significant losses on the defensive side of the ball? No, but to say that they won't good enough to give us serious problems is a bit of wishful thinking. If this all sounds like a bunch of doom and gloom, well...it is. Of course, I'm talking about Alabama here without mentioning Michigan at all, which makes it seem like I think that Michigan has no hope or no agency in making the outcome a desirable one. That is obviously not the case, as I have the utmost confidence in Michigan's coordinators and Denard Robinson's ability to make people look silly. Still, it's important to view things in the appropriate light. 

The Michigan offense, with another offseason of conditioning and practice reps, will be better than last year. However, if you asked me to give you a vague point of reference for Alabama's 2012 defense, I'd tell you that they will be at least as good as the Virginia Tech defense that stifled Michigan in the Sugar Bowl not too long ago. 

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Like I did for the offense, I will finish this somewhat apocalyptic post with a few general questions as a primer for the position specific previews: 

• Jesse Williams obviously looks the part, but position switch concerns will always apply regardless of the caliber of player. Can Williams replace the presence of Josh Chapman as the run stopper/general world destroyer in the middle? It remains to be seen simply because we have not, you know, seen him play that position. It doesn't help that Michigan is looking to replace a Rimington winner at center. 

• Alabama looks to replace both starters at corner, an uncomfortable proposition for any team in college football. With that said, Alabama does return Dee Milliner, a former 5-star prospect who was primarily a 3rd corner nickel type last season. Milliner did in fact start 6 games last year, so he's not exactly some sort of newbie. Still, Alabama needs to find one other starter on the outside. Given the erratic nature of Denard's arm and the lack of top end receiving talent for Michigan, this may not end up mattering as much as it otherwise might have if Darryl Stonum were returning. Additionally, Alabama returns FS Robert Lester but looks to replace 1st round pick Mark Barron at the strong safety position. Sophomores Vinnie Sunseri (son of former Alabama linebackers coach and new UT DC Sal Sunseri) and Ha'Sean "Ha-Ha" Clinton-Dix are currently battling for Barron's vacated spot. Michigan is obviously going to attempt to run the football as much as possible, so can either of them provide the authoritative run-stopping presence that Barron provided? While not short on talent, there are questions in the secondary that need to be answered. The fact that Saban signed two JUCOs, Deion Belue and Travell Dixon, speaks to that. 

• With Courtney Upshaw's departure, Alabama will need to find someone to replace his pass rushing prowess at the JLB position, aka the deathbacker position that, for some reason, Craig Roh was at one point supposed to be. Adrian Hubbard looks to be the heir apparent here; can he provide a consistent pass rush and run-stopping presence on September 1st that even approaches what Upshaw offered? The SEC is known for its speedy pass rushing mavens at DE and OLB, but a redshirt sophomore with no starts to his name is still a question mark, no matter how much talent or recruiting hype he may have.