Breaking Points: Indiana Edition

Given the Jekyll and Hyde nature of the Indiana football team--and the fact that I covered some of the personnel and basic statistics yesterday--this post will be a little shorter than usual. Anyway, on with the points:

Devin Gardner vs. mistakes. Again, insert bit about this continuing to be a point of concern for the rest of the season. Michigan is halfway through its season and Gardner has been turnover-free in just one game, which was in part due to the nature of the game and the conservatism of the gameplan.

Against a team with a high-octane offense like Indiana, turnovers are death, especially because the Hoosiers aren't very good defensively on their own. If the Hoosiers force turnovers of the "make plays" variety, there's not much to be done. However, Gardner cannot gift wrap them points via turnover, i.e. Penn State's first two touchdown scores set up by Gardner interceptions.

Running power vs. pulling the plug. Any discussion of offensive playcalling, in my mind, starts with the acknowledgement that Al Borges knows infinitely more about offensive football than I or anyone else typing away on the Internet.

With that said, there is a basic point that anyone can glean from last Saturday's performance: when is enough enough? Now, it must be noted that a number of Michigan's obvious power runs came on the clock-killing drive at the end of regulation, so perhaps the 27 carries for 27 yards thing is being perceived slightly more harshly than it should be (of course, it was still very bad any way you slice it). You would think that a Michigan team could run for at least one yard on even the most obvious of running situations (e.g. clock-killing drives), but that is no the case for this iteration of Michigan football.

If you're looking for a little early litmus test for the Michigan State game, consider this: the Spartans had two 90+ yard rushers against the Hoosiers last Saturday. Jeremy Langford had 109 yards on 23 carries and three touchdowns, while Delton Williams had 92 yards on 12 carries.

Big Ten fans gave MSU a lot of flak for its early offensive ineptitude, but the Spartans ran the ball with ease against a bad IU defense (i.e. an expected outcome for a divisional contender). I admit that this is incredibly reductive thinking, but with MSU on the schedule two weeks from tomorrow, if Michigan doesn't come close to matching the aforementioned rushing output tomorrow, concern levels will be high.

Ordinarily, you'd like to see at least 5.0 YPC against Indiana. This year, I think most people would accept three yards a pop, which of course is a sign of the times. Either way, it's now or never: if Michigan can't get the ground game going against Indiana, then the UConn game will go down as Michigan's best non-CMU rushing performance of the season.

Michigan defense vs. substitutions. Kevin Wilson's offense is not quote the second coming of the 2008 Oklahoma Sooners just yet, but it's absolutely a dangerous offense. Although the Hoosiers certainly have good skill position talent, tempo is the vehicle by which IU finds its success.

Against Penn State, Michigan was seemingly unprepared to handle the Nittany Lions' intermittent usage of an up-tempo, no huddle offense. Well, that's pretty much going to be the whole game. If the Michigan defense can avoid giving up its usual first possession long drive, that would be a major early boost of confidence.

Indiana's offense is not invincible, and while Michigan's defense is not as good as Michigan State's, the Wolverines do have the players to disrupt the IU offense to force some punts.

Devin Funchess vs. the IU secondary. Simply put, Funchess should have a monster game. Indiana's linebackers are not impressive, and the secondary is what you'd expect an Indiana secondary to be (although, as I mentioned yesterday, Tim Bennett is somewhat of a playmaker at corner). Funchess should be able to go over the top once again, while Gallon should be

I could be going crazy, but it seems like Michigan's put away the Gallon throwback screen play this season; perhaps that could be because it became gradually less effective last season. Nonetheless, that's a play I could see having some success against IU (think last year's Illinois game).

Michigan OL vs. pass protection. All of the focus is on the run blocking these days, but it's not as if pass protection has been perfect. More often than not, Michigan's best plays have been Gardner making like Second City and improvising as a byproduct of pass rush pressure.

Despite being a bad defense overall, the Hoosiers are surprisingly competent if you look at sacks alone, in which they are ranked 53rd in the nation. That's not exceptional or anything, but they've got the ability to get to the quarterback. Indiana notched three sacks against Mizzou; Georgia managed just one more, four, in their matchup against Gary Pinkel's squad.

However, IU only tallied one sack apiece against Penn State and Michigan State. Nick Mangieri (3.5 sacks) and John Laihinen (3.5 sacks), both defensive ends, are IU's leaders in sacks. Lewan and Schofield should be able to hold down the fort at the ends, but, as always, the question is whether the center can hold, or if mere anarchy will be loosed upon the Michigan backfield.

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Michigan is a 9-10 point favorite depending on where you look. Quite honestly, I have no idea what to expect this week. That is an uncomfortable place to be.

Indiana has some nice weapons on offense; Tevin Coleman is probably the best tailback Michigan has seen thus far. If the linebackers don't fill and/or get blocked or the safeties find themselves daydreaming, Coleman can take it to the house before you can say Petoskey.

I foresee the first half being a real shootout. I don't feel confident that Michigan's defense will be immediately ready to handle IU's pace. Once again, I'll say that if IU's first drive ends with a field goal, that's a victory.

Usually I have some sort of vaguely reasonable rationale for my score predictions, but this week's is just a thread pulled from the yarn ball of immense uncertainty. Score: Michigan 38, Indiana 31. 

Al Has A Pretty Bad Time In General

Al: "I'll wait for you to turn into Cade McNown. I'll wait for you!"

Al Borges has had a pretty bad time in general these last few days. The Alabama game went just about as expected, although the final score did reach the worst case scenario as opposed to the in retrospect laughable hope that we could keep it "close" (i.e. cover the spread). Yet, people are still upset at Al. Why didn't he do this or that? Why, Al, Why? 

Admittedly, attempting to mine useful football talk from fans in the middle of a game is useless, like asking a teenager for parenting tips. Even I, with my personal stake in the game (as a former resident of the Yellowhammer state), was going USE DENARD BLARGHHH like everyone else. After the requisite 24-hour moping period came and went, it became fairly clear that Borges did the only thing he could do, that being exactly what he did. 

When Borges said they "weren't going to let you do that", with a matter-of-factness verging on grim nihilism, he truly meant it. Alabama really is not in the business of letting anybody run the ball on them. Remember, they're pretty good, and have been so throughout the entire Saban era for a reason (save for his debut season in 2007). Think of all the great backs and quarterbacks that the Tide go up against in the SEC: how many of them had any sort of success on the ground? I'm willing to bet that you could them on one hand. 

I love Denard as much as the next guy and it will be a sad day when he plays his list game as a Wolverine (I would think that that would be clear to anyone that has read this blog), but even Cam Newton, Heisman winner, couldn't do much of anything against Alabama. Newton amassed a mere 39 yards on 22 carries. Newton, the man who spent 2010 trucking everything in sight and then speeding past LSU corner Patrick Peterson could not do a thing against the Tide. Auburn's memorable comeback began how, you ask? First, a 36-yard TD strike to Emory Blake and then a 71-yard TD pass to Terrel Zachery. We all knew that this would be the only way that we would be able to attack the Alabama defense, simply because Saban can afford to sell out on the run game with the athletes he has in the back 7/8. 

Last season, Cam's rookie year in the NFL, he threw for just over 4,000 yards and ran for 706 at 5.6 YPC, scoring a total of 35 touchdowns. Newton made NFL defenses look absolutely silly all season as a rookie, and yet he couldn't do anything at all on the ground against Alabama for an eventual national championship-winning Auburn team. 

Denard is not Cam Newton (in case you didn't know that already). The thing that most people still do not seem to be grasping in the aftermath is that sometimes there is no adjustment. If that makes you feel helpless as a fan, imagine how that makes Borges feel. I mean, did you watch the video above? 

Give Denard a few more carries against Alabama if you must. It wouldn't have mattered, as Nick Saban's record as a defensive mastermind has shown. The only response to this would be that "hey, we were out of options and Denard is our best player so we have to use him!" My response? 1) Again, it wouldn't have worked. 2) 5-10 more carries makes an injury in what is pretty much an exhibition game as far as anybody important (i.e. Hoke) is concerned. 3) Alabama defensive players spent basically all of July and August talking about stopping Denard Robinson. As it turned out, one way of doing this was the conscientious decision to force him to give the ball to far less dangerous runners. If he kept, they would be right there to stop it because, remember, they'd been talking about it. They were ready for it. 

What they couldn't have accounted for as much is Denard completing passes at the intermediate level and deep downfield. He completed a couple (2/10, per Borges), but they came too late and were too infrequent. Denard had some opportunities throughout the game and just missed, although it should also be noted that Michigan's receivers (and Alabama's fast, aggressive, and impeccably coached secondary) were also part of the problem. Once Denard proved unequal to the task of passing his way into opening up some sort of running room, it was over. 

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Anyway, I don't want to ramble on about the Alabama game any more than I have to. However, it should be clear: Michigan's offensive gameplan was probably 124th on the list of reasons why Michigan lost this game, fitting between "the existence of Nickelback, period" and "having to wait until next summer for the conclusion to Breaking Bad." Some are complaining of Borges's inflexibility, which I find to be a little bit odd and unforgiving, especially after the catastrophic start to the RR era, with Threet and Sheridan attempting to run the spread, a memory which was an indefinite--to use an Alabama-ism--"bless their hearts" situation. 

What we currently have is a frustrating situation without a tidy solution. We have a senior quarterback, transcendent in some areas and still very much developing in others, united with an offensive coordinator known for coaching pro-style quarterbacks. This is pretty much the 2008 offense redux, albeit under much less dire circumstances. Last year's 11-2 mark and Michigan's success against Nebraska and OSU to end the season concealed this notion somewhat, but this offense is cognitive dissonance in action, and there's nothing we can do about it for now. 

One final point. As someone who likes to talk about sports and things on the Internet, there comes a certain point where people--fans, blog proprietors, miscellaneous college football media folks, etc.--will want to lay claim to some sort of authority with respect to football parlance, strategy, and general commentary. This is natural, the urge to know more and then to parlay that knowledge into something bigger. The problem with all of this, a problem lacking a solution (not unlike the Denard-Borges mismatch conundrum) is that none of us here, tapping away at our keyboards on the Internet, know a single thing that Borges doesn't know. 

In his 27th season as a college offensive coordinator, Borges has without a doubt seen every possible defensive philosophy, blitz package, opponent collective talent level, and specific in-game situations. It is natural to want to criticize the coaches when they and/or the team fails, because, if we didn't, then we'd simply be passive consumer detached from the results in a way that makes the whole process seem pointless.

In this case, however, failure was inevitable, as unsatisfying of a conclusion at which to arrive. It is a difficult thing to accept, especially as a fan of a program like Michigan, but it is the truth. Alabama was better at every position. Michigan did not have a single matchup advantage. Michigan's primary offensive strength matched up against Alabama's defensive strength and a core tenet of its defensive philosophy. Fin. 

There's a lot of football left to be played, and I don't need to tell you that Saturday was probably as bad as it will get this season (and maybe even for a long, long time). I don't know that Michigan is as good as 2011 Oregon--the comparison Borges uses to say that we'll be alright--but Michigan is certainly not as bad as it showed on Saturday. Borges calling the plays for an offense quarterbacked by Denard will continue to be intermittently awkward, but Borges has already proven that he can make this offense function at a high level more often than not. 

Alabama Preview: Banking On The One

Brief note: I will attempt ("attempt" being the key word) to have these preview posts up on Friday each week around lunchtime. The grad school thing may prevent that from happening, but we'll see how it goes. I should be good to go for about the first month...after that, things might get a little dicier. 

The Exposition

Time: 8 ET, ABC
Place: Cowboys Stadium--Arlington, TX
Line: Alabama -13.5
Mood: !!!!!!!+unceasing anxiety

I spent my high school years in Alabama, coinciding exactly with the Mike Shula era. This was a few months after the Mike Price fiasco, not to mention Dennis Franchione's controversial departure for Texas A&M a few months before that. Add NCAA sanctions to the mix and a new head coach in Shula* (who had been a career NFL guy to that point, and never a head coach), and you could say that things were not turning up Milhouse.

At the same time, my high school years as a Michigan fan were about as good as you could ask of your program within a 4-year window. John Navarre went out and won a Big Ten championship in 2003 to spite his squawking detractors, and Chad Henne rode piggybacked on Braylon Edwards's back in 2004 en route to another one. The 2005 season, "The Year of Infinite Pain", according to Brian, was a paper cut compared to the total system breakdown that was the Rich Rodriguez era. My final season as a high schooler was the 2006 season, of which I don't need to tell you about.

Michigan going 0-4 in its bowl games during that time put a bit of a damper on things, but it was an all around great time to be a Michigan fan, especially one living in Alabama. In retrospect, it seems almost unthinkable for Alabama to have a 4-win season and two 6-win seasons in a 4-year span, but it happened between 2003 and 2006.

Enter Nick Saban, and that's enough of that whole losing and not being mistake-free cybernetic organisms thing. Say what you will about oversigning, but there is no denying that Saban is one of the best defensive minds in the game. In five seasons, Saban has compiled a 55-12 record; half of those losses came in his first season. Simply put, Alabama has been the best team in the country since Saban arrived in Tuscaloosa.

Needless to say, in nine years, a whole lot has changed; this isn't 2003, anymore.

*Amusingly, he is now the QB coach for the Carolina Panthers, coaching one Cam Newton. Life has a funny way of working out sometimes.

Michigan Offense vs. Alabama Defense 
A note: I started writing this on Tuesday. I am assuming that Toussaint is not going to play, for what it's worth. The same goes for Frank Clark. 

It's hard to decide which Michigan unit has a better chance of getting anything done in this game. As I detailed throughout the summer, this Alabama team is about as talented and athletic as you would expect. So, what's the catch? There is a catch, right?

Maybe, maybe not. Ask any Alabama fan about their defense and they will talk to you about RELOADING and 5-star recruits everywhere and how this ain't 2010 (when Alabama had to replace a similar amount of premium defensive talent and then went on to have a "disappointing" 3-loss season). Well, most of it is in fact true. Alabama is talented, and at certain positions, they will rotate guys in and out with relative ease.

However, some Alabama fans are just being unreasonable. I'm sorry. That's not to say that Alabama's defense won't be good (keep in mind that that 2010 defense was still very good) because they absolutely will, or that a defense that is a cut or two below last year's wouldn't still hold Michigan to a relatively low point total.

The simple fact is, no, Alabama fans, your defense will not be as good as last year's was. Then again, last year's defense was historically good, not just good in the context of the 2011 season. Some slippage can be reasonably expected, especially when replacing 7 defensive starters. Yes, I do understand that some of the players replacing these guys have seen some game action (for example, starting corner Dee Milliner), but not all of these guys have gotten meaningful playing time. Adrian Hubbard at SLB, Quinton Dial (was a rotational type guy last year that will be a half-starter along with Ed Stinson at one end position), Deion Belue is a JUCO guy in his first season in Tuscaloosa and a starting corner, Vinnie Sunseri is a true sophomore who did play some last season but has enormous shoes to fill at strong safety, etc.

As you probably know by know, Nick Saban is an evil genius whose defenses run with Gradgrindian efficiency; it's going to be "hard times"** for Michigan indeed if the OL consistently lets rushers through en route to clean shots on Denard. That cannot happen, especially early on in the contest. Nick Saban's Alabama defenses are known for their base 3-4, but Alabama is a fairly "multiple" team. The will also likely throw the 4-3 at us, the 5-2 (with two "Jack"*** linebackers on the field at once), and passing downs have their own special wrinkles for nickle packages. Alabama will throw a lot of different things, and Borges has ostensibly does his homework on all of them. That said, being ready to combat and execute these defensive looks is another battle entirely. FWIW, here's a useful video of Saban explaining the basis for the "Star" and "Money" positions in Alabama's nickel and dime looks.

Some Crimson Tide defenders to focus on at each level of the defense: 6'4'' 320 lb. senior NG Jesse Williams (he's a position switcher moving over from end, although he did play nose in his JUCO days), 6'2'' 232 lb. junior CJ Mosley at ILB (he's not nominally a starter but he basically is based on how much he will actually play, especially against a spread spread-ish team like Michigan), and 6'0'' 215 sophomore strong saftey Vinnie Sunseri (son of a coach!). Mosley in particular is a player to pay attention to when he's on the field. He's not technically a starter, but he's probably Alabama's best linebacker, and he will be on the field in passing situations. He's also Alabama's fastest backer, so expect him to do a lot of this when Denard does dump it off:

Don't get me wrong, I love Vincent Smith, but I'm not sure he will be able to shake Mosley on the edge. However, I think a guy like Justice Hayes could do some damage in this capacity, although that is admittedly based purely on recruiting hype at this point.

If Michigan (i.e. Barnum+Omameh/Mealer) cannot contain the Balrog that is Jesse Williams from getting into the backfield or render him irrelevant by attacking the edges and taking our chances there, it's going to be a long, long day. Remember this picture?

With the pressure that Alabama is sure to bring with the Jack linebacker, bringing Sunseri down into the box, and all other sorts of defensive sorcery, things could very well look like the picture above. I think Denard would agree with me: that is not something we want to happen. Alabama has spent the last few weeks talking about how they're coming for Denard, and why wouldn't they? Unless propelled by magic (4th quarter of the ND game, the entire VT game), if you key on Denard and force him to pass, things probably get ugly. Obviously, that is easier said than done, since not every team has the pure talent to force Michigan's hand in that way. Alabama, like Michigan State, certainly does.

Analogy time! Hoke:defensive line coaching::Nick Saban:defensive backs. Saban and DC Kirby Smart have supreme confidence in their DBs, which is not unreasonable given the talent they have at their disposal and the fact that Saban might be the best and most meticulous teacher of DB technique in the country. It's his special pet project amongst all other coaching duties, much like the DL is to Hoke.

A perfect example of this confidence is the Cover 1 Robber defense, which Chris Brown of Smart Football discussed in his book released earlier this summer (and summarized excellently by this MGoBlog diary). Alabama will put its corners in man coverage with regularity, and this decision is only strengthened by the fact that Michigan's top two receivers are Roy Roundtree and Jeremy Gallon. No offense to either player, but I imagine that neither exactly strikes fear in Saban's robot ersatz heart.

Want to see the Cover 1 Robber in action? You have seen it before, and I apologize in advance for this. If you'll remember, I recently linked to this excellent post from The Only Colors on the now infamous Double A-Gap blitz. Therein, a discussion of one variant, the Cover 1 Robber, was explained in detail. Guess which play that was:

As surprisingly complicated and variegated as that particular blitz is, you can be sure that Alabama has many like this one lined up and ready to go. Denard et al need to have their hot route cues down pat, or the above will very likely occur at some point.

I don't think that Michigan will have much success attacking the middle with the ground game...at least early on. Alabama stuffed everyone, even LSU's paleolithic but effective power running game, and I think that we should expect different results. I don't think that Borges is foolish enough to do this, but if Michigan lines up in the I and attempts to run any sort of traditional power run, you can bet that thousands of Michigan fans will all be throwing up their hands in unison. Unless we're in a short yardage or goal line situation, Michigan cannot afford to waste precious plays by plugging away up the middle. This isn't the 1990s: lightning bolts will not rain down on your head if you don't run to set up the pass.

The problem with that is Michigan has Denard Robinson, who, aside from being a transcendent runner with a fantastic smile, has had some basic mechanical issues in the passing game, not mention trouble reading defenses and reacting to pressure. All of these things do sound like a recipe for disaster against a defense like Alabama's, but we have to assume that Denard has improved throughout the offseason. Playing like he did against Nebraska and Ohio State would be a start, but that's all it would be. The same gaping holes that were there against the Huskers and Buckeyes likely won't be there against Alabama, and if they are they will be closing up a little more quickly.

So, what are the options? Really, there aren't many that don't involve pinpoint execution and, quite frankly, not getting blown back at the point of attack. If either happen, it's over. An UTL-esque miracle is just not going to happen against this team.

**ELITIST REFERENCES PAWLLLL
***FYI, the JLB is basically the pass-rushing linebacker; last year, it was Courtney Upshaw.

Michigan Defense vs. Alabama Offense 

We've had a couple relatively surprising moves on the defensive side of the ball come to light in the last week. First, Quinton Washington will be playing at the nose position and starting. Next to him is William Campbell, who was going to be play nose until the coaches eventually came to the realization that Black at the 3-tech just wasn't going to work. As such, BWC to the 3-tech and Black back to WDE it is. We won't truly know what the two-deep is actually like until the games begin, but, for now, Black's move is one more obstacle between Mario Ojemudia having to take the field against an Alabama team with a Brobdingnagian offensive line.

Speaking of the offensive line: they are huge. I previewed this position group way back in early April, and not much has changed (actually, nothing has). If you didn't already know, 2011 All-American LT Barrett Jones made the move to center to make room for Cyrus Kouandjio, which speaks to how highly the coaches think of the latter. This is the second move that Jones has mode (he was once a guard), so while position switches are often uncomfortable propositions, Jones has always been lauded as a smart guy and should be more than alright.

Alabama has a bevy of talented tailbacks and wide receivers. Like the secondary and linebackers, experience is the primary issue with most of these guys, although they are by no means completely green. None of these guys are Trent Richardson or Julio Jones, but they might not need to be if the ground game has worn Michigan down as I'm sure Alabama is intending to do.

You probably know about Eddie Lacy by now. He was Alabama's #3 in 2010, Richardson's backup last season, and should be the feature back this season. A pesky injury kept him out of most of spring ball, IIRC (including the A-Day scrimmage), and has still seemed to be banged up as recently as the last week or two. I linked to a video of him doing a short drill with a fairly significant amount of tape on his ankle, which may or may not mean anything.

Saban has used the words "day-to-day", and the fact that he'd be "ready to go in 5 or 6 days"...he said this on August 18th. The more time that passes, the more I get the feeling that he won't be 100% on 9/1. If that is the case, our old friend RS freshman Dee Hart and true freshman TJ Yeldon become the next guys in line. Jalston Fowler, Alabama's #3 last year and the Tide's top mooseback, appears to have made the move to H-back, where walk-on Kelly Johnson has won the starting role in what can be considered the shocker of fall camp (it hasn't been that exciting of a fall camp). Johnson has big shoes to fill, as the H-back is a very important player in Alabama's offense, which should basically stay the same despite the hiring of former Washington OC Doug Nussmeier (last year's OC, Jim McElwain, departed for the Colorado State head coaching job). Brad Smelley was a big time target for McCarron last season on key third downs (he was Alabama's second-most productive receiver in 2011). It's unreasonable to expect Johnson to be as good as Smelley, but he did win the starting nod, so he must be doing something right.

At receiver, Alabama appears to be rolling with 6'0'' 185 sophomore DeAndrew White and 6'2'' 195 junior Kevin Norwood at the "X" and "Z" positions, with 5'11'' 185 sophomore Christion Jones taking the "H" receiver position (i.e. the slot). I was somewhat surprised to see White win the starting over Kenny Bell, Alabama's leading returning receiver, but I'm not sure that it matters much. Bell is a physical, athletic receiver, and McCarron looked to him downfield on occasion last year. AJ and Bell hooked up for a 39-yard and 41-yard TD against Tennessee and Auburn (a flea flicker, FWIW) respectively. Fast forward to 0:35 in the video below to see this in action.

Anywho, Alabama has more, but to continue to name them would be overkill. Here's the thing. Alabama's offense is a little more complicated than it may seem, but in the end this game will be all about those things that make us roll our eyes when guys like Merill Hoge talk about them: toughness, resilience, the ability to bend but not break, completely unironic GRIT. If Michigan is going to get this done, it probably won't be pretty. Alabama will pick up yards on the ground and, inevitably, through the air when Mattison is forced to bring increasingly crazier and riskier blitzes. However, if Michigan can hunker down once Alabama cross the M's 30, not unlike the Sugar Bowl, then I'm saying there's a chance.

I mentioned this back when I took a look at Alabama's quarterbacks and I'll say it again: McCarron is a better player than many Michigan fans are probably giving him credit for. He's a solid player, and yeah, sure, having that team around him certainly helps. However, all you need to do to realize that being a QB for such a team is not so easy is to recall LSU's 2011 season. The quarterbacking during the national title game was so rough that folks with no stake in the result of the game (me, for example) began to plead all over the Internet for Les Miles to PUT IN THE OTHER GUY, a guy who is often known as Jarrett "Pick 6" Lee.

I mentioned that moving QW to nose and Black back to WDE was kind of like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic, but the more thought I give this configuration, the more I like it. That is 600+ pounds (607 according to MGoBlog's Fall Roster Overanalysis) of human being there in the middle. Will it be enough against an interior trio of Chance Warmack, Barrett Jones, and Anthony Steen? Maybe not, but I like Michigan's chances much better with QW than Black.

As for the ends, there was once a point when I was fairly optimistic about this group. Now, not so much. I'm having visions in my head of Beyer and Roh getting handled by Fluker and Kouandjio in the ground game and getting stonewalled in the pass rush, and who knows what kind of player Black will be after adding weight and spending so much practice time on the inside. At this point, any sort of pass rush that Michigan can get from the these guys is gravy, which is a pretty ominous thing to have to say.

With that said, things are rosier in the back 7 for Michigan. As far as tight ends go, Michael Williams is Alabama's starter. He doesn't seem to be anything extraordinary, but he is by no means a liability or anything. He was a red zone target against Penn State last season (and also the recipient of a fake field goal TD pass that Ace linked to here).

Otherwise, I feel pretty confident that Michigan's 'backers will match up in coverage. The only catch is the Williams is 6'6'' and a biscuit under 270. OF COURSE HE IS. When Alabama has Williams and an H-back in the game, odds are you are about to get smashed in the face. He's a blocker and possible red zone guy...basically, what we all hope AJ Williams will one day become.

I feel confident enough in Michigan's safeties not giving up the dreaded big play for the first half or so. But...after that, especially if Alabama has racked up enough yardage that plays like the above dart to Bell can happen? That is the moment that the game is over.

What Needs to Happen, Fergodsakes
On defense:

• Say it with me now: bend but don't break. I'm sure Mattison has some tricks up his sleeve, but tricks can only do so much when the other team is simply bigger and faster. Michigan is not going to win the stat sheet battle. If Mattison's defense gives up 500 yards and manages to hold Alabama under 31, there is hope. Make them kick field goals (see: 2011 LSU game, Part 1). 
• Countess and Floyd. Please be in pre-OSU/VT form. Alabama has quite a few talented players at receiver, but I'm not really convinced that there is a star among them (certainly not a Julio type). This goes without saying, but given the probably lack of a front four pass rush, JT and Blake will be on an island more fairly often. The good news is that, after a year of Mattison's diabolical blitzes and aggressiveness verging on over-aggressiveness, they're probably up to the challenge. 
• Quinton and William. To put it simply, if these two look like they're on skates, there is simply no hope. Again, you can only scheme and mitigate your weaknesses so much. As Saturday approaches, I've become increasingly confident that they'll be able to hold up at least adequately; whether the linebackers can shed Warmack and Steen and tackle the ball carrier--whether an all-around talent like Lacy or a darty sort like Hart--is another story entirely. For the record, I'm fairly confident that Demens, Morgan, and Ryan will do a decent job. Jake Ryan, after QW and BWC, might be the most important player on Michigan's entire team in this game. 

On offense: 

• No turnovers please. If Michigan turns the ball over, chances are a win is not happening. The margin for error is razor thin. 
• Get the passing game going early. My nightmare is that Michigan comes out, plugs away on the ground, fails miserably and then sees everything spiral out of control as Michigan tries to pass its way back in the game with a guy like Denard. The slant will be there, and Borges will call upon that old standby, the throwback screen to Gallon to start pushing the Alabama linebackers and safeties away from the LOS. Naturally, if that happens, that's where Denard goes to work. If there's 9 in the box, forget about it
• Devin Gardner. The wild card-iest wild card who ever wild card'd. If he is a legitimate force at receiver, that could change everything. To be quite honest, after Milliner, the rest of Alabama's corners don't impress me as much as Alabama's new linebackers do. Also, I need to see Sunseri and Clinton-Dix in action before I deem them the second coming of Ronnie Lott. I think that Michigan might get some mileage out of the so called "QB Oh Noes" play, as Brian calls it, what with Sunseri looking to be an involved and aggressive player in the run game. Borges needs to scheme against that position. 
• Attack the edge, quickly. Yes, SEC speed and all that, but I think that it's just about a waste of time to try (past a token effort) to develop a between-the-tackles running game, at least in the first quarter or so. Michigan needs to be creative in its ground game, kind of like it was against Ohio State last November. Get numbers going to the edges and let's see how those pseudo-newbies at linebacker handle Denard. WR end arounds. Denard jet sweeps. 
• Trick plays. Let's see 'em. Seriously, Al. 2008 Capital One Bowl Redux, this needs to be. 

Predictions of Negligible Worth 
Making these sorts of predictions, especially for a game like this, is a torturous thing. A prediction is not really one data point that you pluck out of thin air. It's a deliberate whittling down of all results from a giant marble slab of possibility. My point: could I see everything going perfectly, Alabama having a bad day, and Michigan eeking out an incredibly ugly yet satisfying Sugar Bowl-esque win? Yes, I honestly can. Alabama is talented, and it speaks to the state of things that Michigan is such an underdog in spite of all the big name players that Alabama lost. In two or three years, this game will be an even contest going in, but we're not quite there yet. Still, this is a good Michigan team, and not one that should be underestimated.

With that said, too many things have to go well for Michigan to win this game. Michigan will probably need to have a turnover margin of at least +2. How likely is this? If this game is played ten times, Michigan probably has everything fall into place maybe once. That's what it is. We're banking on that one, that unlikely scenario, the "Jareth Glanda catching a pass" of games.

As much as it pains me to say it, I just can't make that prediction. To be able to stick it to the reigning national champs, the team that I had to spend four years hearing about as a high schooler, would be something beyond tremendous, if such a superlative even existed.

In the end, Michigan keeps it close for the first half, but without Toussaint, Michigan just won't have enough juice to keep enough drives going to make it a game. Even with Fitz, I'm not sure that Michigan has enough. It won't be pretty, but it won't be an outright blowout. At the same time, I don't think it will necessarily be "close." Michigan is a 13.5 point underdog, which, sadly, is just about right.

Score: Alabama 31, Michigan 17

The Sun Also Rises

(HT: Mike DeSimone)

Michigan 40, Ohio 34

The ball came and he went up for it like a whirling gyre amidst the chaos. He came down with it, assessed the situation, and said "I will go there." And he did. The sun shone as he reached that place once again, that place he once knew but had for a time forgotten, like a soldier in a faraway land holding a grainy picture of a girl or a dilapidated home that maintained only a tenuous mental existence, like a dream instantly forgotten upon awaking. He crossed the line and remembered it all. The obstacles around him twisted and stumbled and fell as he came through, unable to reconcile the reality with their worldviews that it disrupted the laws of physics as they knew it for a brief moment. Everything collapsed around him but each step forward ushered in a new civilization, a new idea, a new hope. Each step to that end was a tacit affirmation of everything that was good but hadn't been for so long. 

It was the first salvo of many in the second half, but Michigan never trailed again after that point. It was a tacit understanding that this was the end; this wasn't last time, or the other time or the other time. It was a time unto itself, flourishing in the culture of its newness. 

When the last pass fell into the arms of Courtney Avery like he was welcoming someone's long-awaited return, he sat on the sidelines and smiled. The sun seemed to have risen, like the rows upon rows of Michigan Stadium before a third down play. It was strong but not malevolent. It shone pure lucidity, a clarity that made all actions obvious so that the intermediaries of thought to action were obviated by the circumstances. Run to the student section. And they went. He jumped up for the last time and the world was upon him. Hands and faces and shouts: happiness. He held onto the moment because it would be the last time.

The streak is over but on this particular day the streak doesn't mean a thing. It was about Michigan and Michigan alone. It was their day in the sun, and they took it. When the adrenaline had subsided, the fans had left the stadium, and helmets were off and held in hand, only one thought remained, only one could rightly be had: Michigan had won. It was ironclad. 

They sang The Victors. The noise that rang out bellowed, each syllable pounded into the air like a fist. It could be heard from far away. I think I hear it now. Eyes all searched for something to say we won to, and the air was charged with something that carried the scent of momentum, a latent buildup of something. Plans were laid and a bridge was built. All that's left to do is marvel. The room buzzed and they marveled. 

The Offense

Like RVB said in the post-game presser, this probably wasn't Denard's "best" game if numbers alone are the determining factor, especially with the 2010 ND game in the not too distant past. With that said, as far as virtuoso quarterback performances go, this game reminded me of Chad Henne's Rose Bowl against Texas, Tom Brady against Alabama, Henne against the Gators, &c. For the first time this year, Denard looked like a complete quarterback, like a guy who truly could beat you with his arm the minute you thought it was okay to cheat on the run. That's not to say that past iterations of Denard weren't great, but I think this might be my favorite Denard performance of all time, and yes, that includes last year's ND game. 

His throws had zip and were on target, and although he didn't have as prolific a day as the aforementioned guys with respect to pure yardage, it was as efficient a day as you could have wanted. Denard was 14/17 for 167 yards and 3 TDs through the air, and he of course added 170 yards and 2 TDs on the ground just for fun. You could say that this was an example of a Denard-Borges offense at the height of its powers, except, you know, we get one more year of this. This was just a preview. 

At this point, any complaints about Borges are so minor as to be downright irrelevant if not absurd. Sure, you have to take into account subpar performances against MSU and Iowa, but if you survey the season on a macroscopic level it is astoundingly clear that this offense is much more dangerous than it was back in September, when the offense consisted of jump balls and a run offense that was 2010-esque in its inability to find production from anybody not named Denard Robinson. Denard's command of the offense and Borges's command of the circumstances have improved by leaps and bounds; there's a lot to be excited about for next year, not to mention the fact that the fires of an offseason QB "controversy" have been effectively extinguished. 

The numbers themselves don't even do the performance justice. The types of throws Denard made on Saturday were good throws for any quarterback, and plays that evinced the types of attributes that a good quarterback would have, let alone a spread quarterback trying to do something new. The touch pass to Koger up the middle, the 28-yarder to Dileo, the Hemingway touchdown, the patience on the Odoms touchdown: these are the manifestations of Denard's progression as a passer. I don't want to hear the word "regression" anymore. Life isn't a series of unflinching black and white. Bad and good things happen but that doesn't necessarily indicate a trend or even a trend that is doomed to stick if it's a bad one. 

Oh, and he was sort of alright running the ball too. Rich Rodriguez must've been watching those veer plays thinking "Really? COME ON." It was downright scary how reminiscent of White & Slaton some of those plays looked, but I guess the sledding gets much less tough when you have a talented back like Toussaint to pair up with Denard. On Twitter Brian noted that Denard needed to start keeping, and, as if on cue, he did just that. Perhaps most encouragingly--more than the actual output itself---is that he ran like 2010 Denard again. He looked as fast as he always was after leaving me wondering at various points this year if he had lost a half step. He was aggressive and his movements were purposeful: read and GO, and maybe embarrass some people in the process:

If Etienne Sabino is a Beatles fan, "Hello Goodbye" was probably playing in his head at that very moment in time. There are many more runs like that one. The fumble and the almost lost fumble were the only real blemishes on an otherwise tremendous day on the ground and through the air.

Elsewhere, Toussaint did what he does. Another year of Toussaint and Denard plus a group of solid wideouts (and a legitimate deep threat in Stonum) and an OL that returns more than enough folks should provide for a fun 2012 season on offense.

How perfect was it that seniors like Odoms, Hemingway, and Koger all scored touchdowns in their final games in the Big House? It was a perfect end to a trio of careers that had their fair share of setbacks, frustrations, and moments of doubt. It's hard to play favorites with any of these guys, but Steve Breaston: RBUAS::Odoms: me. I'm sad to see him go and it's hard to believe that this was his last game in the Big House. Listening to this past week's MGoPodcast's discussion about Odoms re: the weather during the '08 Northwestern game gave me laugh and then got me to thinking how quickly time can pass without your approval. I'm not sure what lies ahead for Odoms et al, but if this season is any indication then I'm sure it will only be the best of things.

And if you needed one more thing to smile about, I give you Denard, post-game: "I'm glad I stayed."

The Defense

Thomas Gordon breaks it down as others do things

Well, that didn't quite go as expected. The Buckeyes put up a number of big plays and 34 points on a Michigan defense that had risen meteorically from last year's level of unadulterated futility. The secondary breakdown on the long TD last week against Nebraska was an indicator that despite the improvement, this defense wasn't exactly immune to giving up the big play, but nobody thought that a Bollman offense could have come into Ann Arbor and performed like that. Yes, Michigan escaped with the win and that is definitively all that matters. Michigan's defensive renaissance isn't to be casually dismissed on the heels of one bad game, but it is a subtle (okay, not so subtle) reminder that scheme and coaching go a long way, but talent and experience need to be there as well. Michigan has the former set in spades, but the latter (i.e. talent, experience, and depth) still needs some work to say the least. 


With that said, credit is due to Ohio State, namely Braxton Miller, for coming into The Game with an aggressive gameplan as opposed to prior games where there was seemingly no gameplan at all. It was hard not to watch and have visions of 2004 Troy Smith run through your head but we got the win so those will be set aside until next year. I had a feeling that OSU would definitely do better than they had throughout the season because it's The Game fergosakes, but still...I don't think anybody expected to give up that many points or big plays. 


It seemed to me that, even late, Mattison wasn't really respecting Miller's ability to go downfield and it almost burned us there. Countess got his lunch taken a few times, and so did Floyd on the Miller overthrow in the last drive. The later was a little discouraging given the situation in the game as well as the fact that Floyd has defended moves like that before, particularly against AJ Jenkins of Illinois. 


The numbers are actually not that bad. Michigan gave up 372 total yards (with my mind still sort of expecting RR era results, less then 400 yards=GOLD JERRY GOLD), and the Buckeyes racked up only 137 rushing yards on 31 carries, good for 4.4 ypc. That's not terrible. Michigan held Dan Herron to 43 yards on 15 carries, and he is pretty good even if OSU's 2011 OL hasn't been the best in recent memory. Of course, where Michigan got beat was when Braxton Miller decided to turn into a jazz musician in cleats and improvise all over the place. There's a reason he was a highly-touted recruit; the guy can play. He's not there yet, but given Michigan's lack of defensive speed and relative inexperience in spots, it's not hard to see why Miller had the game that he did, even if other lesser teams held him in check. Did I expect it? No, but I'm not exactly surprised. In any case, despite the points, Michigan notched 7 TFLs, including 4 sacks. Even when Michigan is getting 34 dropped on them, they're still doing some good things. That, and Demens and Morgan lead the team in tackles with 10 and 8 respectively. That's what you want. 


It will be interesting to see how Michigan responds in the bowl game, particularly if they face a team like Houston that will throw and throw and throw some more. Despite the defensive turnaround by the numbers, I would caution people to not get too excited just yet. I know, thanks Cornelious Buzzkillington...but it's true. Giving up plays of 36, 43, and 54 yards does not bode well if we are to face a team like Houston, unless we can get pressure with the front four (and I think it's a reasonable assumption to say that we will). I won't lie and say that the defensive performance wasn't a little disappointing, but (WE) BEAT OHIO. Michigan will spend the next month or so getting some invaluable coaching; guys like Morgan, Ryan, and Countess will basically have a second fall camp to get ALL THE MATTISON COACHING. 



Special Teams

Gibbons?

Gibbons has quietly put together a fine season (10/14 on the year and 48/48 on extra points), and has become, dare I say it, "reliable." That 43-yarder was about as clutch as you can get without being a straight up "if you don't make this we lose" situation. Hagerup had his derp moment (I'd put it here but you've all seen it already). I like that Hoke always dismisses these occurrences as a product of "probability." It's: a) true and b) serves to not completely destroy a kid's confidence. I like it.

Otherwise, Hagerup did well with his other 2 punts, returns were average as usual, and OSU's returns teams were generally a non-factor save for one 31-yard kick return from Jordan Hall. 2011 special teams, I love you so much.

Miscellaneous Minutiae 

• Make no mistake about it, OSU will be back. That team has talent--quite frankly, the talent gap is still pretty wide--and all it will take is some coaching. OSU will have the offensive side covered; if Urban can make a good DC hire then the Buckeyes will likely get back to being pretty good on defense again. Injuries didn't help and some guys (Travis Howard) turned out to be nowhere near as good as anybody expected, but they will be fine next year. 

• Michigan went undefeated at home for the first time since 2006. Clearly Pop Evil is having some sort of adverse effects on our opponents as well. 

• I wonder how many wins in a row it will take for OSU fans to stop talking about the 7-game streak? It seems like talk of Michigan's ownage of PSU pretty much came to an end last year. I'd say two more and we're good.

• Brady Hoke unleashed his inner 7 year old by utilizing the word "funner" post-game. Brady, if you keep winning you can continue to pepper your coachspeak with non-words as much as you please. 

• Martavious Odoms doubled his previous career TD output throughout the last three games, scoring one in each game. PAHOKEE UBER ALLES. 

• MGoBlue.com Notes, always full of interesting trivia that you may or may not want to know. Did you know that Brady Hoke is the fifth Big Ten coach ever to win 10+ in his first season? Well, now you do. 

• Michigan is now 58-44-6 against Ohio. I bid you adieu, 57.

Luckiest Man

(HT: Mike DeSimone)

Michigan 31, Illinois 14

To derp or not to derp...that is the question. Or is it the answer? Ron Zook isn't sure and he's been thinking about it real hard for a long time so you know that this is a quandary of such immense existential weight that it would boggle and possibly even crush the most powerful of minds. In reality, Ron Zook is not a football coach but a water ski enthusiast that happens to coach football on the side. Ron Zook's interests in life: being completely oblivious, running on third and 10, having blustery hair, and taking the wave runner out onto the streets of Champaign. In Ron Zook's world, this is perfectly normal. At any given time, Ron Zook coaches like it's six minutes into the first quarter and the repercussions of the accretion of derpitude stemming from his choices has not already torpedoed his team's chances. No matter what happens, Ron Zook is this on one never-ending loop of lobotomized bliss: 

Should I keep going? The fact that he has survived to see a seventh season at Illinois is a testament to man's ability to ratchet up primordial self-preservation instincts in order to procure enough food to survive the day and/or barely beat Western Michigan and Northwestern. 

With that out of the way, despite Zook's constitutional devotional to being terrible, Michigan was actually doing things to make the end result what it was. It didn't look great at times, but when you can muster up the bravado to complain about a first half performance that saw Michigan completely stifle Illinois's offense, you know things are probably pretty good. Winningly ugly certainly is more fun than losing really really ugly, and this statement will be included in a book of obvious statements written by Chad Henne and obviously titled "Excellence Is Good." 

The Offense 

My first impression was one of doom and gloom, but, the more I think about it, maybe it's not so bad. Michigan put up 31 against a formidable defense, more than any other Illinois opponent save Northwestern (qualifier: yeah, those are some bad offenses on their schedule, but it's all relative at this point). This is of course not even mentioning the inopportune turnovers and the Illini's general inability to move the ball, additional reasons to not feel so bad about things. Obviously you can't just take turnovers out, but Michigan could have very easily scored in the 40s, on the road, against a pretty good defense. These aforementioned things in and of themselves aren't enough to assuage any feelings of discomfort, but together they make a convincing case. 

It's hard to give the quarterback play a true grade given the paucity of data, but overall it's difficult to be too critical. Denard went 6/9 passing (excising the meaningless end of the first half Hail Mary), and he good on the few opportunities he did get, which including multiple lasers between the hashes and one laudable (if underthrown) touch pass to Koger down the field. As far as the playcalling goes, I think it's obvious that the coaches saw how well we ran the ball, saw how poorly the Illini did anything, and decided not to air it out much at all. It's not a pretty way to win, but it's a way to win. When an opponent as incompetent as the Illini basically obviates the need to pass...don't pass. Yes, it is in fact 2011 and not 1911. 

At this point, with two more teams fielding okay defenses and mediocre at best offenses left on the schedule, I'm not sure if the battle plan really needs to change all that much. It's not flashy or exciting and it certainly doesn't get Denard the game reps he needs to become a better passer, but, as I said it's late for that. The time for Denard to throw it around was long ago, back in the halcyon days 6-0 run. Despite this, those who say that Devin should be the guy are, quite frankly, crazy. I have no idea how many of these people are extant, but whoever you are, you're crazy. Nevertheless, Devin did show some nice poise to step up and hit the open Odoms for 6; it's an improvement. Unless we are holding a lot of plays for the Ohio State game, it appears that both Devin and Denard are about as good as they're good to be this season, and that, to me, makes it obvious who should be getting the vast majority of the snaps. Maybe Devin wins the job in the offseason. Who knows. For now, Denard gives us the best chance to win, and that's all that matters.

Outside of the weekly quarterback non-controversy, Fitz Toussaint was busy looking like Mike Hart with speed again /Jackson'd. He ran for a career high 192 yards on 27 carries (good for a YPC of 7.1, a number that is still pretty good even if you take out the 65-yarder on the opening drive). Michigan has seen some times since Mike Hart moved on to the NFL, with Minor, Brown, McGuffie, Shaw, Smith, etc. all getting looks and all doing some nice things at times but never enough to be the undisputed #1. Fitz has done that and then some. I do admit to wondering how different (i.e. better) the offense would've looked in 2010 with a legitimate spread tailback to complement Denard, but as they say it's in the past. 

Elsewhere in the run game, Denard did his thing, carrying 12 times for 45 yards, which isn't amazing but it's hard to be upset when two of those carries are touchdowns. The only Charles Barkley turrible moment that I can still recall is that botched 4th and goal, but even that isn't really Denard's fault so much as maybe a nice call by the Illini and poor blocking. 

The offense is what it is. It's a work in progress, the Death Star circa Return of the Jedi. Borges is trying to construct something with a pile of Legos and Lincoln Logs and some rubber bands, and whatever is the result of this grostequely inadequate and variable pile of parts is going to be, well...inadequate and variable. As such, one way to mitigate that is to simply go into "just win" mode, which entails throwing 15 times between two quarterbacks throughout an entire game on the road. 

The Defense 

I can't remember the last time a Michigan defense's performance made me feel so happy. I think the answer is "2006" but I can't be too sure. While the defense looked good earlier in the season, it was more a product of minimal expectations exceeded; solid performances but one saddled by the qualifiers of competition and our own low expectations. Now, Michigan's defense is an absolute good, an entity to count on and consider a strength without irony or reservation. This defense is good. 

Again, a certain amount of Illinois derp is at play here, but a good amount of that derp came about because we looked fast and strong in the front 7, with the secondary forcing turnovers, helping in the run game, and overall shutting down the Illini passing game outside of AJ Jenkins. It felt like watching a Michigan defense of old, and for a second it felt like Glen Steele, Rob Renes, Jarrett Irons, Tripp Welborne, and Leon Hall were out there once again: hitting, covering, crushing. 

The Illini had a mere 214 total yards of offense (37 rushing, 177 passing). For those counting at home, on 33 rushing attempts, the Illini averaged 1.1 YPC. ONE POINT ONE. Other than Jenkins, the passing game netted 74 yards. Greg Mattison has officially made the desert bloom. 

Michigan's only mistakes came as a result of youth seeing the field (Clark) and not knowing how to defend the zone read/option, but whatever. Our top four tacklers (RVB, Martin, Demens, and Morgan) were all front 7 players, which is the way things should be. Four sacks, a Kovacs forced fumble/Gordon recovery, a JT Floyd interception, and an indomitable will to be in the right place and to hit whatever shows up at that place later, and you've got a 31-14 Michigan win in which in the Illini didn't score until late in the third. 

Van Bergen and Martin continue to dominate, and man we are going to miss them next year. That said, with how improved the defense has been (including the DL), and the presence of essentially 3 guys coaching the DL (Hoke, Montgomery, Mattison), I'm not as worried as I maybe ought to be. I mean, Will Heininger notched a sack last week in Iowa City. While the depth is still scary and elite talent isn't quite there yet, there's enough there for a solid unit next year. 

Think about our back 7 play the last three years (and beyond, even). Think of all the times Michigan did their best Oprah impression in gifting teams cheap touchdowns over and over again. Indecisive linebacker play, coverage breakdowns, abominable tackling, and, most importantly, no sense that anybody was on the same page, let alone reading the same book. It cannot be stated enough: we are so lucky to have a guy like Greg Mattison coaching this defense. 

While Michigan did to a Illinois offense what many teams before them had done, the welcoming thought is right there: Michigan did what they were supposed to do. They saw a weak offense and suffocated it, they stared down the Ben Chappell Theory and swarmed it with a tacit refutation that was both coldly efficient and extremely fun to watch. Michigan 1, Ben Chappell Theory 0...the future is bright. 

Special Teams

So, another not terrible game here (and by not terrible I mean not like the last few years); actually, it was pretty good. First, Gibbons? 

1 for 2 on the day, inspiring neither additional confidence nor additional reasons to worry. Otherwise, Gallon had a dynamic day returning punts: although he didn't break any for 6, he did return one for 32 yards (4 for 62 on the day). Hagerup was sort of mediocre once again, punting four times for 137 yards, good for an average of 34.3 per punt. He had a long of 44 and a 30-yarder that pinned the Illini just inside their own 15 (a good thing, but not for that average). 


Miscellaneous Minutiae 

• Odoms! Anybody that reads this knows how big of an Odoms fan I am, so it's been nice to see him get on the stat sheet last week in Iowa City and this week with the touchdown. As good as Gallon has been, there's always room for quality depth on the field. Here's to a final three games to remember for Odoms (and the rest of the seniors, for that matter). 

• J.T. Floyd, a week after getting smacked by one Marvin McNutt, looked like a legitimately good Big Ten corner. He was active on the ball, and the interception plus return is just gravy for a guy who I basically equated to Grant Mason before the season started. Nebrask'a group of wideouts isn't particularly talented, so one would expect Floyd to lock things down once again. That's right Big Ten...you don't come in here and throw on FLOYD ISLAND. 

• Michigan's rushing output exceeded the Illini defense's previous average of 102.9 yards per game by approximately 120 yards.

• Denard passed Tom Harmon on Michigan's career touchdown runs list. He also passed Tim Tebow and Dan LeFevour on the NCAA career rushing list. Just sayin'.

• Thomas Gordon now has four fumble recoveries on the year after recovering a ball coerced out of Jason Ford's hands by Jordan Kovacs's helmet. Fumble recoveries may be somewhat random, but Gordon seems to be around the ball whenever these things happen. 

• With Nebraska and Ohio State continuing to look about as potent as Illinois on offense, it's hard not to look at the next two games and reduce our likelihood to win or lose to, yes...Denard. 

• It still hasn't hit me that we're actually 8-2 with a good shot at going 10-2. Wow. I'll finally be back in Ann Arbor for this week's game against Nebraska for the first time since SDSU...can't wait.

Sweet Homecoming

Best adjective for Al Borges's physique...lumpy? Wave field-esque? Buxom?
(HT: Mike DeSimone)

Michigan 36, Purdue 14

Michigan has seven wins in hand having played two less games than they did at the seven win mark last season (coincidentally, both wins against Purdue). At this point, Michigan is grabbing wins like items at an Old Country Buffet; these things might not be of high quality, but this is America and MORE is better than anything else. Yes, I am comparing the quality of Big Ten competition to the lukewarm comestibles of a buffet chain. 

There's not much to say other than that this one was vaguely reminiscent of conference blowouts of old. Despite beating Illinois (which, at this point, might not even have been an "upset") last weekend in the friendly confines of Ross-Ade, I didn't have that sinking feeling about this game that I had before Northwestern. Michigan is a decidedly better team than Purdue and Saturday bore that out from start to finish, a small blip at the onset notwithstanding. It was a cool and comfortable victory, and maybe this is more a commentary on the state of football at Purdue but the entire thing felt like it occupied a level of hype just a touch above that of your average non-conference game. If you looked at the relative emptiness of the student section at any point, you would've almost imagined that maybe Eastern Michigan or Delaware State was standing on the sidelines across the way. 

But, even things like that can't really bother you when Michigan is 7-1 and additional wins are not exactly difficult to rationally assimilate into your worldview. Despite not being "home" for Homecoming, what I saw on TV this past Saturday left me in a decidedly familiar and comfortable place. 

The Offense

After an abysmal showing in East Lansing, the offense came to play this weekend at home. Michigan put up a healthy 36 points but if things had ever gotten serious they easily could've put up more. A lot of people should come in for praise this weekend: Denard, Borges, Toussaint, the offensive line. Denard looked sharp throwing the ball on a number of intermediate routes, even zinging a few that would be considered nice tosses for a true pro-style guy (e.g., the the 10-yard completion to Hemingway on the first drive). This is encouraging. While I don't think that the MSU game was necessarily an outlier, Denard can throw the ball adequately once he builds up some confidence early in games. He has the arm, and anybody who says otherwise is clueless. Backed up near our own goal line to start the second quarter, Denard launched one that wasn't quite Vick-esque (in that Vick probably wouldn't have had Roundtree pull up much at all) but was still supremely impressive because he felt the Purdue lineman and stepped back into a nice pocket where he set his feet and threw. This might be expected or an ordinary series of events for most quarterbacks, but for Denard it was an encouraging development. 

Otherwise, the one interception from Denard was what it was. If Denard can limit himself to one turnover a game then I think most people would be pretty happy. Devin's pick looked like a case of miscommunication, and I guess you can afford to take these kinds of things when you're blowing out Purdue. 

Other than Denard's solid bounceback performance, the running game was obviously superb and the number one thing to feel good about. Here's a kind of terrifying statistic: Fitz's 20 carries made him the first non-Denard back to get 20+ carries in a game since Carlos Brown in 2009 against Illinois (yes, that game). That is truly unbelievable (it really shouldn't be given the dependence on Denard in the running game, but for some reason it's still really surprising). Now, Fitz probably won't find that much room against Nebraska and Ohio State (and probably not even Iowa or Illinois), but it was nice to see someone other than Denard carrying the load. This is how it should be. Denard carried 15 times (for 63 yards), which is more than I thought he did but isn't exactly horrible. The failure on 4th and goal was probably the only thing you can complain about re: the ground game...as money as that play is, it was bound to get stopped eventually (especially with our relatively small line). 

Having watched a lot of Auburn in the Malzahn Era, I've always sort of been jealous of a running game that is creative in the ways it sets plays up, from pre-snap motion to who is carrying to the ball to ways of delivering the ball to the ball carrier. While we haven't quite gotten to that level of creativity yet, we're getting there. The dual-QB formation is starting to figure itself out. I think that Denard is still good for an effective jet sweep about once or twice a game, but I think it's clear that Borges will make his money by playing off of Denard in that set-up. It did of course help that Purdue is just not that good, but either way I'd have to say that this was probably my favorite game thus far from a play-calling perspective. Then again, everything looks nice when it works.

After the game Purdue LB Joe Holland said (emphasis mine):

They ran a couple of things that we hadn't seen them run all year and they had two weeks to prepare an offensive game plan.

Well, isn't that nice. So is this:

Purdue's backers completely overrun this but Fitz exploits this like a good back should; when you force relatively untalented players to defend in space, this is what happens. This wrinkle has the potential to do, well...what it did. After giving it to Denard on the jet once or twice, Fitz will have acres of green to work with on the other side. Obviously this won't always go for a TD, but it's just another example of many "smoke and mirrors" type plays that we will need to get the running game going in the absence of the ability to run traditional power plays (other than Denard Power).

The Defense 

After hearing rumors of a knee injury to the Bringer of Light/Competency that is Jordan Kovacs (and then confirmation of said rumors), I was a little worried that Michigan would immediately revert to the sieve-like state it had held since time immemorial. After that initial Purdue touchdown, I'm sure every Michigan fan was all: 

NO KOVACS AND NO COMPETENT SAFETY PLAY MAKE MICHIGAN FAN GO CRAZY. 

After that, things calmed down and Michigan finished with another solid performance, relinquishing the aforementioned 7 points and then another TD in garbage time when dudes like Beyer and Clark were on the field. Purdue couldn't do much on the ground, rushing for a mere 89 yards on 29 attempts (3.1 YPC) and passed for 222 yards on 27 attempts, with 48 yards coming on the aforementioned breakdown and 48 more coming in the last drive with under two minutes to go. So, while Michigan is obviously no Alabama or LSU, I think we can safely say that we have a good defense. Every time I think about some of the things that might be wrong with this defense, I think of last year in Bloomington, where I was present as we made Ben Chappell look like Peyton Manning. It's a pretty easy transition from the aforementioned to "man, Greg Mattison is the smartest person of all time next to Greg Robinson" given the results thus far. We'll see how Mattison does without Martin and RVB next year, but that's a worry for another day. 

Mike Martin was his usual Hulk self, consistently blowing up double teams and notching two sacks along the way. The lack of a consistent space-clogging nose to free him up will continue to be frustrating, but Martin should still be able to make hay against the remaining lines on the schedule. Countess continues to be the precocious freshman that he is (although not without mistakes), and Woolfolk's return to safety was not completely disastrous. Hoke saying that he would like Troy to be more physical at times is pretty valid and not just Hokespeak. On the long TD, both Countess and Woolfolk allowed themselves to get slowed down by pathetic, flailing blocks (Countess by the slot and Woolfolk by a clumsy OL), giving Bush the chance to turn what should've been maybe a 10-15 yard gain at most into a long touchdown. Given the nature of the play itself, I can't decide whether to be more or less upset than I am (which is not that upset anyway, FWIW);  it was a screen that is ostensibly pretty easy to diagnose from Woolfolk's position on the field. Okay, so Countess gets sort of slowed up and then whiffs at the ball carrier's feet. It's a mistake but I can live with that so long as the help shows up as it should. Unfortunately, Woolfolk is very un-physical here, as the big guy blocking him does the standard big guy blocking a small guy act (also known as "engage for about a second and then do a Lunogoesque flop") but still manages to slow Troy enough. Another unfortunate aspect of the play is the fact that Floyd isn't quite able to track Bush down from the backside despite seeming to have the angle for a second. I guess that's just something we'll have to live with with him on the field (otherwise he's been about as good as you can expect him to be). 

Special Teams 

So, special teams were kind of good in general this week, in perhaps one of the best all-around performances of the season. First of all, though...Gibbons? 

Gibbons was 2/2 on the day, knocking in 22 and 37-yarders. I still admittedly don't have enormous confidence in him making a field goal in a tight situation on the road but you could probably say that about 80% of college kickers anyway. Elsewhere, Hagerup had a quiet but solid day, booting two for an average of 40.5 (and a long of 49). 


However, the kick return game was probably the most notable development in this phase, with Odoms returning three for a total of 81 yards, including a long of 33 that was very close to getting broken for much more. I'm not sure if  we'll see this type of production consistently but you've got to think that we'll break a meaningful return at some point this season, and what better time to do it than now as we enter the stretch run. 


Speaking of Odoms on returns against Purdue, doesn't that TD in 2008 feel like it happened ages ago? Time flies. 

Miscellaneous Minutiae 

• I don't think Shaw is anything more than a niche player at this point but he was surprisingly effective this week. With Devin at quarterback and Shaw, Denard, and even Gallon all being threats to carry the ball at any given time, I'd have to think this forces teams to be overly edge-conscious, maybe leaving things open for an attack of the middle? Either way, 5 for 56 yards and a TD is not bad for your #3 ball carrier in a given game. 
• Again, Michigan stifled the opposing offense on third down: Purdue converted a paltry 3/13 on third down. This puts Michigan barely in the top 40 at #39 in third down prevention percentage (36.21%), putting us a couple of spots behind Notre Dame, six behind PSU, and 21 behind MSU (Illinois and Ohio State are also in the top 25 in this department). This is easily the most endearing quantifiable aspect of the defensive turnaround (other than points allowed, obviously). It's hard not to be excited given that we're doing all of this without great depth or even talent at most positions. 
• Toussaint...Hart with speed? HART WITH SPEED. But seriously, Toussaint is the #1 guy despite Hoke's non-commital Hokespeak on the matter. 
• Lewan has been: 1) WWE-style arm-barred 2) punched in the face and 3) dinged up in general as a result of the last two games, yet he keeps coming back for more. I think it's fair to say that Lewan is playing with mansome TOUGHNESS. 
• I just have to, but man...really guy who is in charge of playing piped-in music? At the risk of sounding all ND Nationy, but Seven Nation Army does not need to be played a million times a game. The more indistinguishable the Michigan gameday experience gets vis a vis your average college venue, the sadder I get. I'm not against piped-in music at all (other than certain songs which are terrible coughSweetCarolinecough) but there has to be a certain aspect of moderation to the whole thing. This is of course not even mentioning the fact that it seems like literally everybody else in the conference does it now (I mean, even the Lions did it fergodsakes). 
• Mike Martin notched Michigan's first safety since the 2003 Houston game...good times. The only thing I really remember about that game is that we destroyed them and the students chanted "Houston's better" after the annihilation of ND the next week. 
• Michigan's been pretty lucky thus far re: the injury bug, but with Kovacs looking like he's out for at least one more and both Barnum and Lewan looking like they're at least definitely not 100%, Michigan will have to dip into the shallow talent pool for reinforcements. Michigan should be okay without Barnum if necessary (Schofield seems to have been about as good) but Lewan would be an irreplaceable loss.