Who would've thought the Atlanta Falcons would be 1-4 and the New York Jets would be 3-2 at this point in the season? I'll admit I had my doubts about Geno Smith after the way in which West Virginia tanked in the second half of last season*, but he looked like an NFL quarterback last night (albeit against a struggling Atlanta team).
*Of course, a majority of the blame for that falls on the WVU defense; you can't score 40+ points every week.
Anyway, enough about the NFL and on to the college links:
Rodger Sherman talks about Northwestern's unique situation heading into Madison this week, facing an unranked squad as an underdog. Given what happened in Tempe, the Badgers really shouldn't be unranked, and the line reflects that; the Badgers are 10-point favorites against the ranked Wildcats.
This is yesterday's news, but I haven't mentioned it in this space: Jake Ryan might play this Saturday at Penn State. Of course, I'd imagine his snap count will be closely monitored. It will probably take two or three games before he gets back into the swing of things. Luckily for Michigan, the schedule is fairly accomodating (on paper, at least).
Do you like bowl games? Are you a fan of a non-BCS conference team? Would you like to make a trip to the Bahamas? Should I continue to write this bullet as a series of questions? No, no I should not. Anyway, if you answered yes to any of those first three questions, this might be of interest to you.
Lake The Posts is frustrated about the amount of scarlet in the Ryan Field stands this past Saturday. Given Northwestern's record, College GameDay's presence and the amount of marketing that went on for this game in Evanston, I have to admit I was somewhat shocked to see that much scarlet in the crowd. Michigan fans are known for making Ryan Field home, but I'm not sure I've seen Michigan fans dominate Ryan Field like Ohio State did on Saturday. With that said, there's that whole "not everyone wants to wear maize" thing, which perhaps distorts my perception of Michigan crowds at Ryan Field over the years.
I'm not sure Minnesota was "in the game" until the 4th quarter--I'd say it was basically over when Michigan scored to start the second half--but I do agree that Mitch Leidner showed promise for the Gophers (Star Tribune).
Also re: Leidner, the Leidner-Maxx Williams connection might be Minnesota's best shot at any sort of passing game going forward, especially in the red zone (St. Paul Pioneer Press).
Despite Urban Meyer's well-earned reputation as a brilliant offensive mind, it was the relatively straightforward running game that powered the Buckeyes to victory in Evanston.
Josh Slagter of MLive looks at Penn State by the numbers. I still have to give the slightest of edges to Jared Abbrederis over Allen Robinson as far as the best receiver in the conference goes, but Blake Countess et al will have their hands full trying to slow down the Hackenberg-Robinson connection on Saturday.
I talked about the Illinois game over at Maize n Brew. Notes: Denard is awesome, Jake Ryan is awesome, the notion of "having a good defense" is awesome. Everything is about as awesome as it can be for a Michigan team currently sitting at 4-2. The B1G competition thus far hasn't exactly been fierce, and Michigan State doesn't appear to be quite as formidable as many expected them to be. Still, there are demons to be exorcised on Saturday; as such, I'm sure this will be the longest week ever.
After a brief hiatus--UMass being, you know, UMass--I'm back to the Friday morning previewin' game. Given that it is Notre Dame, most of this could probably be whittled down to "Denard Robinson needs to do Denard Robinson things", but...here it is, anyway.
Time: 7:30 ET (NBC) Place: Notre Dame Stadium--South Bend, IN Line: Notre Dame -5 1/2 Mood: Like someone at a craps table, hoping for one more run before retreating into the night.
The Exposition
Making an attempt to explain the last three games in this series is as useless as counting the stars in the sky or pondering the meaning of life: really, they happened and they're there, and that's all you need to know. That doesn't mean that we can't mythologize or look back through layers of intoxicating nostalgia, it's just that these three separate 3-hour events, twice in Ann Arbor and once in South Bend, defy any attempts at empirical or rational reckoning. Try to explain last year's Notre Dame game to a friend and all the clocks within a one mile radius will begin to melt and Salvador DalĂ will emerge from a wormhole to smack you across the face and say bastante.
Sure, these past performances certainly will be hanging in the air over Notre Dame Stadium on Saturday, a reminder to ND fans and players of how things can go so utterly wrong, of how deep the abyss is, as well as the concern that there might be even further depths which remain to be visited. Of course, on the Michigan side, it will all be a subtle nod to the power of magic. The power of Denard Robinson, like gravity, is unseen but knowable and therefore some sort of benevolent sorcery, kind of like having Gandalf on your side. You don't know where he will come from and at what point in the proceedings, but he eventually does, and with spectacular results, results that make you feelas if your cause is...invincible.
With that said, the aforementioned is nice to talk about but not as important as many will have you believe. Past performance does not ensure future results, and magical coincidence is more often than not just magical coincidence. When Michigan and Notre Dame meet, especially in South Bend, all layers of reality and preconceived notions are stripped away, which is basically just a roundabout way of telling you to take them there record books and throw 'em out.
Like every Michigan-ND game, there's an unnerving anticipation in the buildup that is only intensified by the 7:30 start time. Although both teams have already faced big tests and marquee opponents, this is still the one of the primary forks in the road in each team's season. Lose and feel the expectations temper and languish. Win and, rightly or wrongly, watch the expectations soar. Michigan Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense
I know that the whole "just do what Alabama did" became somewhat of a meme this week, but there are some similarities between Alabama and ND: they both deploy the 3-4 defense that deploys a rush linebacker sort that goes by a special name. For Alabama, it was the "Jack" linebacker. For the Irish, the position is branded the "Cat" linebacker position, which doesn't seem very cool, creative, or in any topical but okay Notre Dame coaches too busy thinking about football to come up with good gimmicky position names.
While I'm not sure just yet that Prince Shembo is as good as Courtney Upshaw was for Alabama at the JLB spot, he's pretty darn good (and also fantastically named). Shembo had his best game of the season last week against MSU, amassing 9 of his 15 total tackles on the year, including a sack (2 TFLs). At, 6'2'' 250 and sporting the #55, I'm kind of reminded of Brandon Graham, which probably isn't an accurate comparison but whatever. He is a terror, and Michael Schofield (and Vincent Smith) will need to be on their pass pro games if Denard is not going to be Shembo'd into oblivion.
I'm not positive that Diaco will release the hounds when it comes to the defensive ends, #89 Kapron Lewis-Moore and #7 Stephon Tuitt, but the linebackers have certainly been aggressive the last couple of seasons. This has allowed Denard to do Denardian things once he's gotten out to the second level. I think this will need to happen again, as I don't see Michigan's interior line having much success moving NT Louis Nix; again, I'm not sure that Nix=Jesse Williams, but he is definitely very good. As I read Ace's FFFF post yesterday, the section on Nix sort of reminded me of, yup...Jerel Worthy. That is not a very good thing of which to be reminded.
Quite frankly, Michigan will not have much reproducible success running the ball with Toussaint; if any back has success in this game, I have a strange hunch that that back is Vincent Smith. Michigan will find itself in passing situations fairly often, and Smith could prove useful swinging out to the flat and/or filling into the zones which blitzing, hyperactive linebackers have just vacated in the middle of the field. Of course, the only problem with that is that Smith is of course tiny--see: Denard's INT against Air Force--and Denard being who he is will probably lead to some more dangerously errant passes. Throw it high enough but low enough for it to hit Smith in the fingertips and you're looking at a basic tip drill for the D.
Al Borges made a nice point in one of this week's pressers about his confusion regarding the fans' strange insistence that rushing yards only "count" when they come from a running back; against Notre Dame, Michigan has gotten it done on the ground with Denard and Denard alone. Is that type of strategy sustainable? Well, you tell me, 2010 and 2011 scoreboards. However, can it happen again? I'm not so sure.
The only scenario in which I see Michigan having some success on the ground with somebody not named Denard is, you guessed it, by successfully attacking Notre Dame's vulnerable, depleted secondary. Andrew Maxwell and his receivers were not able to take advantage of ND's secondary despite having 8+ defenders in the box with regularity, but I'd like to think that Michigan's QB and receivers are significantly more dangerous than their Spartan counterparts.
In short, yes, I am unironically saying that Michigan should go with the Alabama gameplan this week. ND's defense is several degrees inferior to Alabama's but is also quite possibly the best defense left of Michigan's schedule. I'm definitely not saying that we shouldn't run Denard much for fear of injury or something (as was the theory behind that strategy on 9/1), but running Denard left and right right off the bat is something that ND will be ready for. Michigan Defense vs. Notre Dame Offense
Listening to the MGoPodcast this week, the consensus seems to be that Everett Golson is sort of in his ur-Denard (to borrow Matt Hinton's phraseology) stage as a quarterback: a not necessarily accurate guy who can make big plays but also mess up the basic ones. He is an exciting prospect, certainly more exciting than Rees and Dayne Crist were, but still very much in the inchoate stages of his development.
Like Denard, Golson is not exactly Cam Newton; at 6'0'' 185 (according to his official Notre Dame profile, at least), he's bound to be called things like "slight" and "willowy" and "probably-needs-to-eat-more". Regardless, he has flashed the playmaking ability that is giving me some bad flashbacks of the 2004 Ohio State game in which a young Troy Smith had himself a day against a favored Michigan team. Needless to say, we have to hope that when Notre Dame drops back to pass, Golson's arms turns into a Ramen noodle or something and that Michigan's can mitigate the lack of a formidable pass rush by keeping contain and not letting Golson run around a la Smith circa 2004.
In average passing situations--i.e. when Golson isn't just freestylin' and profilin'--Michigan should be okay. Notre Dame's receiving options don't really worry me, and I think our corners will be just fine. Tyler Eifert is the next guy in a long line of Notre Dame NFL quality tight ends, but Eifert seems to be more of the hyrbrid WR/TE Greg Olsen/Travis Beckum/etc. sort than a traditional pseudo-lineman with clubs for hands that only catch 1-yard play action passes in goal to go situations. Eifert can really play, and will be a matchup problem when going up against pretty much anybody in Michigan's back 7; strangely, however, Eifert did not record a reception against MSU last week.
Otherwise, there isn't a Michael Floyd in this group, although these are still ND recruits and thus capable of doing damage; after all, let's not forget that our starting corners are likely J.T. Floyd, a sometimes maligned former safety and Raymon Taylor, a still fairly green true sophomore. I have great faith in Taylor, and he's been my "guy who I'm irrationally excited about" since he got playing time early on in the 2011 season. Still, the thought of him playing the field corner spot on the road with a taller receiver like DaVaris Daniels across the way from him or a speedster like TJ Jones (who is most famous for doing this). He did also do this last year to make it 24-7, making the situation seem nearly hopeless for the Wolverines:
Similarly, Robby Toma is a tiny, white receiver and is therefore Wes Welker, so Michigan will need to keep an eye on him and Jones on screens and other slowly developing plays (e.g. the above drag route).
Unfortunately, like on offense, Michigan is at a disadvantage up front. Notre Dame has an experienced line that will look to run the ball with multiple backs, with Cierre Wood being the headliner and Theo Riddick and George Atkinson providing quality depth. The Irish didn't have an extremely prolific day running the ball, but they were actually fairly effective, with 27 carries going for 129 yards (4.8 YPC, with Golson's sacks taken out). Two things: a) compare that to how Michigan did against MSU last season on the ground and b) remember that Michigan's defensive front is nowhere near as good as MSU's, and you have two fairly worrisome things going on.
While Notre Dame's receiving corps doesn't necessarily have a star, it's not too difficult to imagine ND racking up a yardage total that equals or exceeds last year's 513. Unless the light suddenly turns on and Campbell, Washington, etc. can finally get any sort of push at the POA, Michigan is in for a long day. Even with a less refined passer in Golson in the game, Notre Dame will still threaten to drown Michigan in a tidal wave of yards and first downs. The Michigan defense's life preserver will once again have to be forced (and unforced) turnovers on ND's part.
What Needs To Happen, Fergodsakes
On offense:
The Rex Grossman philosophy of offense. I'm pretty sure Al Borges is secretly a big Rex Grossman fan, and that will hopefully show on Saturday by going deep early and often. Remember the Northwestern game last season? Michigan needs to attack downfield just like they did against the Wildcats.
Please no I-form running. This goes without saying, but Michigan spent an inordinate amount of time during UTL last season plugging away from under center with no success. I'm pretty sure we've all learned our lesson at this point, and it's pretty apparent that Michigan's interior trio is not moving anybody in traditional running sets.
Accurate Denard, don't be a mirage por favor. Fairly self-explanatory, but if Michigan is going to mitigate the disparity in respective line strength, Denard will need to complete some passes from the pocket early on at every level (dumpoffs, intermediate routes, and deep). Like many teams these days, I expect DC Bob Diaco to keep his ends mostly in contain mode, so rolling Denard out could be asking for a lot of balls harmlessly falling to the turf after Tuitt or Lewis-Moore do their best Dikembe Mutombo impression.
On defense:
Like a broken record...say it with me: BEND BUT DON'T BREAK. This is just simply Michigan's calling card until Michigan's youngsters become upper classmen. ND will rack up yards, they will probably get at least one first down on a given drive more often that not, and they will probably score in or around their 2011 total.
Show me time. With Desmond Morgan looking like he's back in the starting lineup, it's time for him and Kenny Demens to reassert themselves as the starters, especially on the heels of a recent charge by freshmen James Ross III and Joe Bolden. Morgan had a bit of a tough time against ND last season, and he's struggled to start the season and then had a "head problem" that kept him out last week. I would rather not have to see too much of Bolden and Ross on Saturday, and that means Morgan/Demens playing competently. Nobody's asking for big plays or anything--that's what Jake Ryan and Frank Clark are for--but not completely whiffing on the edge and being ready to take on blockers without getting engulfed would be nice things.
BRING. THE. HEAT. Nobody needs to tell Mattison to be aggressive, but Michigan will need to bring the heat from time to time. Golson isn't actually end-of-2004-Troy-Smith yet, so Michigan can make some hay taking a page from MSU's playbook and bringing pressure through the middle, overwhelming ND's interior line, and allowing the secondary to handle their men in single coverage. Michigan will get beat from time to time, but I don't see any way around it: Michigan needs to force a turnover or two, and I don't see that happening without calling in an air strike or two. It is "unsound", sure, but desperate times and circumstances call for desperate measures. Hey, just remember that we were trying to do this with Greg Robinson not too long ago and you'll feel a bit better.
Predictions of Negligible Worth
I, like you, have that faint glimmering hope that Denard will finish his career as ND's ultimate kryponite, and that he has one more soul-crushing, virtuoso performance in store for the Irish. With that said, attempting to accomplish something a third time takes that thing from mere coincidence to trend, and I'm not entirely sure that what we have here is some sort of underlying, fundamental trend. That is, I'm not sure that Michigan can beat Notre Dame, no matter what, just because we have Denard Robinson.
This is essentially a greatly scaled down version of the Alabama game. Notre Dame is not Alabama by any means, but they do have strong defensive talent in the front 7 and they do have a solid offensive line and a deep group of talented tailbacks. They will try to enforce their will on Michigan's decidedly average front, and Michigan has no choice but to hope for mistakes on ND's part from time to time...which, to be fair, ND has been happy to oblige the Wolverines with of late.
I know I said this last year, and I have no idea what ND's final record will be this season, but I think this ND team is better than this Michigan team. The same thing could have been said leading up to the 2009, 2010, and 2011 matchups; of course, that did not stop Michigan from winning each of those games. Michigan has discovered the alchemic route to gold, that being a little bit of luck and a lot of Denard Robinson.
As always, a "prediction" is a defraying of the sum of all predictions. That is, which outcome is the "most likely" to take place? Saying that one thing will happen does not preclude the belief that any other option is also possible.
With that said, I think we are bound for a 3+ hour drive to anticlimax. I don't see Michigan generating enough offense to keep up, and I don't think we are in for Denard Eviscerates Notre Dame Part III. Likewise, I don't see where the playmaking will come from in the Michigan defense (outside of Jake Ryan, that is).
In the end, I think Michigan goes to South Bend and takes a loss in a game that will essentially reflect what probably should have happened last season: Notre Dame accumulates around 500 yards or so and generally controls the game from start to finish. Everett Golson hasn't been around long enough to convince anybody that he is or isn't prone to committing silly turnovers, but it's obvious that he isn't as careless with the ball as Tommy Rees. As such, I don't think that Michigan can expect to be kept in the game with unforced and untimely errors from the ND side. Michigan takes an ugly and only cosmetically close loss in South Bend, a game that will come to be seen as the Godfather III of the Denard vs. Notre Dame saga.
The ball came and he went up for it like a whirling gyre amidst the chaos. He came down with it, assessed the situation, and said "I will go there." And he did. The sun shone as he reached that place once again, that place he once knew but had for a time forgotten, like a soldier in a faraway land holding a grainy picture of a girl or a dilapidated home that maintained only a tenuous mental existence, like a dream instantly forgotten upon awaking. He crossed the line and remembered it all. The obstacles around him twisted and stumbled and fell as he came through, unable to reconcile the reality with their worldviews that it disrupted the laws of physics as they knew it for a brief moment. Everything collapsed around him but each step forward ushered in a new civilization, a new idea, a new hope. Each step to that end was a tacit affirmation of everything that was good but hadn't been for so long.
It was the first salvo of many in the second half, but Michigan never trailed again after that point. It was a tacit understanding that this was the end; this wasn't last time, or the other time or the other time. It was a time unto itself, flourishing in the culture of its newness.
When the last pass fell into the arms of Courtney Avery like he was welcoming someone's long-awaited return, he sat on the sidelines and smiled. The sun seemed to have risen, like the rows upon rows of Michigan Stadium before a third down play. It was strong but not malevolent. It shone pure lucidity, a clarity that made all actions obvious so that the intermediaries of thought to action were obviated by the circumstances. Run to the student section. And they went. He jumped up for the last time and the world was upon him. Hands and faces and shouts: happiness. He held onto the moment because it would be the last time.
The streak is over but on this particular day the streak doesn't mean a thing. It was about Michigan and Michigan alone. It was their day in the sun, and they took it. When the adrenaline had subsided, the fans had left the stadium, and helmets were off and held in hand, only one thought remained, only one could rightly be had: Michigan had won. It was ironclad.
They sang The Victors. The noise that rang out bellowed, each syllable pounded into the air like a fist. It could be heard from far away. I think I hear it now. Eyes all searched for something to say we won to, and the air was charged with something that carried the scent of momentum, a latent buildup of something. Plans were laid and a bridge was built. All that's left to do is marvel. The room buzzed and they marveled.
The Offense
Like RVB said in the post-game presser, this probably wasn't Denard's "best" game if numbers alone are the determining factor, especially with the 2010 ND game in the not too distant past. With that said, as far as virtuoso quarterback performances go, this game reminded me of Chad Henne's Rose Bowl against Texas, Tom Brady against Alabama, Henne against the Gators, &c. For the first time this year, Denard looked like a complete quarterback, like a guy who truly could beat you with his arm the minute you thought it was okay to cheat on the run. That's not to say that past iterations of Denard weren't great, but I think this might be my favorite Denard performance of all time, and yes, that includes last year's ND game.
His throws had zip and were on target, and although he didn't have as prolific a day as the aforementioned guys with respect to pure yardage, it was as efficient a day as you could have wanted. Denard was 14/17 for 167 yards and 3 TDs through the air, and he of course added 170 yards and 2 TDs on the ground just for fun. You could say that this was an example of a Denard-Borges offense at the height of its powers, except, you know, we get one more year of this. This was just a preview.
At this point, any complaints about Borges are so minor as to be downright irrelevant if not absurd. Sure, you have to take into account subpar performances against MSU and Iowa, but if you survey the season on a macroscopic level it is astoundingly clear that this offense is much more dangerous than it was back in September, when the offense consisted of jump balls and a run offense that was 2010-esque in its inability to find production from anybody not named Denard Robinson. Denard's command of the offense and Borges's command of the circumstances have improved by leaps and bounds; there's a lot to be excited about for next year, not to mention the fact that the fires of an offseason QB "controversy" have been effectively extinguished.
The numbers themselves don't even do the performance justice. The types of throws Denard made on Saturday were good throws for any quarterback, and plays that evinced the types of attributes that a good quarterback would have, let alone a spread quarterback trying to do something new. The touch pass to Koger up the middle, the 28-yarder to Dileo, the Hemingway touchdown, the patience on the Odoms touchdown: these are the manifestations of Denard's progression as a passer. I don't want to hear the word "regression" anymore. Life isn't a series of unflinching black and white. Bad and good things happen but that doesn't necessarily indicate a trend or even a trend that is doomed to stick if it's a bad one.
Oh, and he was sort of alright running the ball too. Rich Rodriguez must've been watching those veer plays thinking "Really? COME ON." It was downright scary how reminiscent of White & Slaton some of those plays looked, but I guess the sledding gets much less tough when you have a talented back like Toussaint to pair up with Denard. On Twitter Brian noted that Denard needed to start keeping, and, as if on cue, he did just that. Perhaps most encouragingly--more than the actual output itself---is that he ran like 2010 Denard again. He looked as fast as he always was after leaving me wondering at various points this year if he had lost a half step. He was aggressive and his movements were purposeful: read and GO, and maybe embarrass some people in the process:
If Etienne Sabino is a Beatles fan, "Hello Goodbye" was probably playing in his head at that very moment in time. There are many more runs like that one. The fumble and the almost lost fumble were the only real blemishes on an otherwise tremendous day on the ground and through the air.
Elsewhere, Toussaint did what he does. Another year of Toussaint and Denard plus a group of solid wideouts (and a legitimate deep threat in Stonum) and an OL that returns more than enough folks should provide for a fun 2012 season on offense.
How perfect was it that seniors like Odoms, Hemingway, and Koger all scored touchdowns in their final games in the Big House? It was a perfect end to a trio of careers that had their fair share of setbacks, frustrations, and moments of doubt. It's hard to play favorites with any of these guys, but Steve Breaston: RBUAS::Odoms: me. I'm sad to see him go and it's hard to believe that this was his last game in the Big House. Listening to this past week's MGoPodcast's discussion about Odoms re: the weather during the '08 Northwestern game gave me laugh and then got me to thinking how quickly time can pass without your approval. I'm not sure what lies ahead for Odoms et al, but if this season is any indication then I'm sure it will only be the best of things.
And if you needed one more thing to smile about, I give you Denard, post-game: "I'm glad I stayed."
The Defense
Thomas Gordon breaks it down as others do things
Well, that didn't quite go as expected. The Buckeyes put up a number of big plays and 34 points on a Michigan defense that had risen meteorically from last year's level of unadulterated futility. The secondary breakdown on the long TD last week against Nebraska was an indicator that despite the improvement, this defense wasn't exactly immune to giving up the big play, but nobody thought that a Bollman offense could have come into Ann Arbor and performed like that. Yes, Michigan escaped with the win and that is definitively all that matters. Michigan's defensive renaissance isn't to be casually dismissed on the heels of one bad game, but it is a subtle (okay, not so subtle) reminder that scheme and coaching go a long way, but talent and experience need to be there as well. Michigan has the former set in spades, but the latter (i.e. talent, experience, and depth) still needs some work to say the least.
With that said, credit is due to Ohio State, namely Braxton Miller, for coming into The Game with an aggressive gameplan as opposed to prior games where there was seemingly no gameplan at all. It was hard not to watch and have visions of 2004 Troy Smith run through your head but we got the win so those will be set aside until next year. I had a feeling that OSU would definitely do better than they had throughout the season because it's The Game fergosakes, but still...I don't think anybody expected to give up that many points or big plays.
It seemed to me that, even late, Mattison wasn't really respecting Miller's ability to go downfield and it almost burned us there. Countess got his lunch taken a few times, and so did Floyd on the Miller overthrow in the last drive. The later was a little discouraging given the situation in the game as well as the fact that Floyd has defended moves like that before, particularly against AJ Jenkins of Illinois.
The numbers are actually not that bad. Michigan gave up 372 total yards (with my mind still sort of expecting RR era results, less then 400 yards=GOLD JERRY GOLD), and the Buckeyes racked up only 137 rushing yards on 31 carries, good for 4.4 ypc. That's not terrible. Michigan held Dan Herron to 43 yards on 15 carries, and he is pretty good even if OSU's 2011 OL hasn't been the best in recent memory. Of course, where Michigan got beat was when Braxton Miller decided to turn into a jazz musician in cleats and improvise all over the place. There's a reason he was a highly-touted recruit; the guy can play. He's not there yet, but given Michigan's lack of defensive speed and relative inexperience in spots, it's not hard to see why Miller had the game that he did, even if other lesser teams held him in check. Did I expect it? No, but I'm not exactly surprised. In any case, despite the points, Michigan notched 7 TFLs, including 4 sacks. Even when Michigan is getting 34 dropped on them, they're still doing some good things. That, and Demens and Morgan lead the team in tackles with 10 and 8 respectively. That's what you want.
It will be interesting to see how Michigan responds in the bowl game, particularly if they face a team like Houston that will throw and throw and throw some more. Despite the defensive turnaround by the numbers, I would caution people to not get too excited just yet. I know, thanks Cornelious Buzzkillington...but it's true. Giving up plays of 36, 43, and 54 yards does not bode well if we are to face a team like Houston, unless we can get pressure with the front four (and I think it's a reasonable assumption to say that we will). I won't lie and say that the defensive performance wasn't a little disappointing, but (WE) BEAT OHIO. Michigan will spend the next month or so getting some invaluable coaching; guys like Morgan, Ryan, and Countess will basically have a second fall camp to get ALL THE MATTISON COACHING.
Special Teams
Gibbons?
Gibbons has quietly put together a fine season (10/14 on the year and 48/48 on extra points), and has become, dare I say it, "reliable." That 43-yarder was about as clutch as you can get without being a straight up "if you don't make this we lose" situation. Hagerup had his derp moment (I'd put it here but you've all seen it already). I like that Hoke always dismisses these occurrences as a product of "probability." It's: a) true and b) serves to not completely destroy a kid's confidence. I like it.
Otherwise, Hagerup did well with his other 2 punts, returns were average as usual, and OSU's returns teams were generally a non-factor save for one 31-yard kick return from Jordan Hall. 2011 special teams, I love you so much.
Miscellaneous Minutiae
Make no mistake about it, OSU will be back. That team has talent--quite frankly, the talent gap is still pretty wide--and all it will take is some coaching. OSU will have the offensive side covered; if Urban can make a good DC hire then the Buckeyes will likely get back to being pretty good on defense again. Injuries didn't help and some guys (Travis Howard) turned out to be nowhere near as good as anybody expected, but they will be fine next year.
Michigan went undefeated at home for the first time since 2006. Clearly Pop Evil is having some sort of adverse effects on our opponents as well.
I wonder how many wins in a row it will take for OSU fans to stop talking about the 7-game streak? It seems like talk of Michigan's ownage of PSU pretty much came to an end last year. I'd say two more and we're good.
Brady Hoke unleashed his inner 7 year old by utilizing the word "funner" post-game. Brady, if you keep winning you can continue to pepper your coachspeak with non-words as much as you please.
Martavious Odoms doubled his previous career TD output throughout the last three games, scoring one in each game. PAHOKEE UBER ALLES.
MGoBlue.com Notes, always full of interesting trivia that you may or may not want to know. Did you know that Brady Hoke is the fifth Big Ten coach ever to win 10+ in his first season? Well, now you do.
Michigan is now 58-44-6 against Ohio. I bid you adieu, 57.
I'd like to do some more generic daily news/links type posts from this point forward--like I did occasionally over the summer--but I never had a uniform name for them, like MGoBlog's Unverified Voracity or EDSBS's Curious Index...eventually I'll think of a somewhat witty name for this thing that nobody will read (the old school Conan-esque self-deprecation is strong here, y'all). I haven't really been able to keep up with the schedule I outlined before the season started but the weekly game recap, rankings opinions, and Friday feature are still there, so I'm looking to fill out the middle part of the week with something. So, here goes.
Three and Out: As everybody is aware, John Bacon's "Three and Out" is officially out there for the hoi polloi, and AnnArbor.com states the obvious in noting that Bacon probably isn't winning him some friends with this one:
John Bacon didn't make any new friends and might've lost some old ones with his book, "Three and Out," that looks at the Rich Rodriguez era in Michigan football.
"The main figures have made their displeasure with the book and author clear," Bacon said.
I won't be getting my copy until probably early next week, but coverage of the book thus far has already been pretty extensive, a fact that should lessen the brunt of some of the book's more surprising revelations. I'm looking forward to reading it (and not looking forward to it at the same time), but once I get through it I plan on posting a general review here (as will everybody else, I'm sure). As a general preface, I will say that anybody who plans on reading it should stray away from making ridiculous black and white assertions about any of the key figures described in the book, but that should be common sense. People are often more complex figures than anyone can imagine, and I'm sure this book will be a testament to that.
At the same time, as a 22 year-old who grew up with Michigan football under Lloyd Carr (and as a freshman at Michigan in 2007 who saw Lloyd's final season unfold), it will be hard not to come away a little bit disillusioned...but, you probably already know that if you're reading this.
The other prevailing impressions from the book thus far: Bill Stewart keeping Casteel was disastrous and like the most Bill Stewart thing to do ever, the coach at West Virginia faces some of the weirdest political currents ever, and Denard Robinson fucking rules.
The New Guys: Going back to the same source, Kyle Meinke talks about the bye week with respect to several freshmen expected to see increased roles going forward, namely Frank Clark, Brennen Beyer, Thomas Rawls, Blake Countess, and Raymon Taylor. We've already seen all five of them to some extent, with Countess obviously receiving the most playing time, often looking like Michigan's best corner as a freshman.
Perhaps most newsworthy is the fact that Jake Ryan has officially supplanted Cam Gordon as the starter on the strong side. I'm not exactly sure how I feel about this, but it is what it is. Gordon got in on special teams against State but didn't do anything else, so maybe Hoke and Mattison believe that it's just too late to expect him to jump back in and be the guy he was supposed to be. It's unfortunate, really...as much as I've lamented the disappearance of Martavious Odoms after his offseason injury issues, Cam's demotion is equally sad.
Either way, I hope that Gordon will get some time going forward. While Ryan has been pretty good for a freshman, he's been an outright liability at times; that is to be expected, of course, but that doesn't mean that Cam can't potentially work his way back in in time. As the coaches seem to understand, this is the perfect time to work some of these guys in, as these week should hopefully serve as a sort of tryout for a lot of these guys.
Other than that, Taylor is a guy who intrigues me athletically. He saw some time as the nickel earlier on in the season, and while I don't think he should get tons of time, his above average speed leads me to believe that he could be useful as a Brandon Harrison-type blitz monger. As for Rawls...shoot, it can't hurt to try him? Either way, we can't run the ball as few times as we did against State and expect Toussaint and Smith to get going. I expect us to come out and run the ball a lot in this game...if we can't do it successfully then we are in major trouble. How the line accounts for Kawann Short will be a major factor in getting this done.
Optimism Abounds: WolverineNation collects the opinions of the various Michigan folks on why "this time it's different." So, that's nice. Former MGoBlog recruting guru TomVH says that Michigan is "doing very well in California," which hopefully means that a Payton commitment is forthcoming. I'm not a recruiting expert by any means so I don't really know what to make of the delay in his announcement after visiting South Bend this past weekend, but for now it seems that our chances are just as good as anybody else's. Either way, Michigan going back to the old recruiting formula of recruiting Michigan and Ohio (and Pennsylvania), and pulling skill guys from California is hard to argue against, as exciting as the brief Florida connection was.
Redemption Song: Yeah yeah we only talk about guys that play for Michigan (is that still something we say?), but it's nice to see former recruit Demar Dorsey hopefully getting back to Division I ball. It's easy to be a cynic these days, and while he will never play for Michigan I hope that he continues to turn his life around. You can say that his academics weren't up to par and that he shouldn't have been recruited in the first place (that's a different issue entirely), but you can't fault him for trying when so many others like him have entered the somewhat ignominious structure of JUCO-level ball only to never resurface.
So I'd like to take a retrospective look at the first four games of the season before we rush headlong into the murderers' row mildly challenging Big Ten slate ahead of us. I'll be doing this after the Homecoming game and then again after The Game to gauge our progress at four game increments. This will be a sort of State of the Union meets a general airing of grievances meets shameless Mattison worship. In any case, I can't believe we're already a third of the way through the regular season. I know we still have eight games and a bowl game to go but before we know it it'll be the offseason and we'll all be groveling pathetically for recruiting info. Good times, but not really? Why can't it be football season forever?
The Numbers So Far
The most important stat, of course: 4-0. Michigan has trounced two directional schools and a dangerous albeit declawed SDSU team in addition to another win for the ages against the Irish.
Michigan is currently averaging:
156.0 passing yards per game (good for 110th overall)
250.0 rushing yards per game (good for 12th overall)
32.0 points per game (good for 49th overall)
12.8 points against (good for 11th overall...11th!)
Compared to last year (against UCONN, Notre Dame, Bowling Green, and UMASS):
256.8 passing yards per game ('10-11 Δ= -100.8)
306 rushing yards per game (Δ= -56)
41.3 points per game (Δ= -9.3)
23 points against (Δ= -10.2)
I'm not really an advanced stats guy (the above certainly does not qualify as "advanced") or anything but this pretty much confirms what we already know: the offense is worse and the defense is better. I know, the insight! All things considered, the schedule to this point was probably tougher last year with a UCONN team that went to a BCS game (basically by default, yes, but still) and a Notre Dame team that ended up being okay. This year we had a pretty decent Notre Dame team*, a complete scrub in EMU, and two teams with dangerous isolated elements (Jordan White, Ronnie Hillman) but not enough elsewhere to really challenge a talent-deficient iteration of Michigan football. So, nod goes to 2010 but this is basically splitting hairs.
Michigan is running and passing for about 50 and 100 yards less respectively, of which the latter is probably a much larger concern at this point. In addition, the positive change in points given up has been essentially cancelled out by the negative points for delta. I'll take that every day and twice on Sunday.
*I still think they're good for 9 wins, FWIW. Learning how to not trip over their own faces would help in reaching that benchmark. How does one go about tripping over his or her own face? Ask the Notre Dame offense, for they are skilled in this particular art. As good as Liam Neeson was at neck chopping bad guys in Taken, Notre Dame is equally good at turning the ball over.
Hoke? Mattison? Borges?
I'll say it: I love Brady Hoke. I supported Rich Rodriguez till the very end but this is turning out to be GOLD JERRY GOLD. Seriously, a lot of the stuff being said about Hoke would cause you to roll your eyes if another fan base was saying it about their guy but the man can do no wrong...that is, until he does, which he will eventually. However, there are a lot of reasons to think that won't happen any time soon. Speaking of Brady Hoke fluff, if any of you haven't seen the BTN "Step Into My Office" featuring him and have 30 minutes to kill, watch it. It's hard to find fault with very many things he's done thus far as the head honcho in Ann Arbor...can you think of any? I'm trying really hard right now and can't think of much. Not pursuing Devin Lucien in the offseason? Not wearing a headset from time to time? Using the word "rusty" instead of rustic? It's okay Brady, sometimes I get words mixed up too.
In short, I'm really grasping at straws here. The media loves him, the fans love him, the players love him, and recruits seem to like the man. So far so good. The Era of Good Feelings is off to an auspicious start (I'd be worried if it wasn't because of the name and all). Hoke gets an A+, and the only concern is what he does after Borges and Mattison move on, but that is SO far down the road (and represents a hypothetical situation that would ostensibly be preceded by some above average level of success, i.e., Hoke wins enough to survive the past 3/4 years) that it doesn't even matter.
As for the coordinators...Greg Mattison might as well have fell to us on a cloud from above because having a defense is kind of awesome. Yes, I know that whole 11th in the country thing won't stand but it's still awesome to look at. Somebody should probably get a screenshot of that before it changes. Beyond the numbers, even the layman can see that things are different. There's something there now that wasn't there before that has nothing to do with talent. One offseason is certainly not enough to improve a defense through S&C or an infusion of new talent, so the only thing we could have logically done is worked with what we have (really, that was our only option). Remember when Jordan Kovacsvis a vis other dudes of his ilk (Tyler Sash, Jim Leonhard, other gritty white guys, etc.) but he's definitely not a liability, and for us that might as well mean All-American. In any case, we haven't had a dependable duo at safety since the Adams-Englemon duo of '07 (and even then, Englemon only got the position because of the pic fail that was Stevie Brown at safety). That pairing wasn't that athletic either (watching Englemon get out-angled by Northwestern's Omar Conteh in '07 was painful), but the encouraging thing is the Kovacs-Gordon pairing actually has a good bit of eligibility left. If blood=defensive competence and this here turnip=the defense than Greg Mattison has managed to squeeze every bit of blood out of this turnip as possible. Some early concerns about Craig Roh have started to dissipate, Mike Martin is doing his manbearpig thing, and we are getting a non-zero contribution from Will Campbell. The linebackers need work but there's some definite potential there with both Hawthorne and Ryan despite each being somewhat limited (Hawthorne is too small and Ryan too inexperienced), and that's not even mentioning a corps including Cam Gordon at some point in the hopefully not too distant future. At this point the most cynical folks among us can say that the absurd turnover margin and points against figure won't stand and that we haven't really played anybody yet, but it's all relative. We are not a "good" defense by any absolute, objective sense...yet. We are, though, definitely better than last year.
Gorgeous Al's case is a little more convoluted because it is his side of the ball that has seen a statistical decline. Borges has the unenviable task of beginning the installation of a non-spread offense (pro-style, West Coast, whatever you want to call it) while also taking advantage of the elements of the offense that made Denard what he was last year...most of which do not overlap with the aforementioned "non-spread" offense. It seems that most are empathetic with Gorgeous Al's plight, and I hope that he can parlay that empathy into not looking so startled all the time.
I stumbled upon a pretty interesting Braves & Birds post comparing Borges to Jesse Pinkman from Breaking Bad (which, if you're not watching it then you probably should posthaste). B&B writes:
When Jesse explains this development to "Mr. White," he makes the obvious point that he knows how to run the cooking process from start to finish, but he doesn't understand the chemistry involved like White does. He has a superficial understanding, but he doesn't know how the parts of the process fit together and therefore, would struggle to answer questions about it.
So yes, RR is Walter White (don't let Rosenberg get wind of this) and Borges is erratic Jesse Pinkman. This harkens back to an article I read in the offseason about the offensive situation at Oklahoma State re: the departure of Dana Holgorsen. I can't remember where I read it, but the general gist was that Brandon Weeden was basically teaching the offense to new offensive coordinator Todd Monken. If that sounds awkward and bound to produce less than the previous iteration, that's because it is awkward and bound to produce less. Borges is trying to run an offense that he doesn't know, that is a faithful imitation at best. Obviously Denard will still run for 200 yards out of sheer raison d'etre but there's a certain verve that's clearly missing that Al Borges probably won't ever be able to replicate completely. I remember doing an imitation exercise in English 325: we had to read a bunch of passages by several authors--Hemingway, Faulkner, Woolf, etc.--and try to imitate their style in a paragraph or so of our own. The request was inherently impossible, but even I--someone who reads and loves Hemingway and Faulkner and those types and often try to imitate them whenever I write things here and elsewhere--knew that even if I produced something similar, it was never going to be exactly the same and it definitely wouldn't be as good. The above numbers bear that out, but as we all know it isn't always about the numbers.
It might be too small of a sample size or generally unrepresentative of the average quality of defenses we'll face this year, but going a perfect 13/13 in the red zone is to be commended. Let's keep doing that.
How Is That Meaningless Preseason Prediction Doing?
So I had us pegged for 3-1, with a loss to Notre Dame. I will say that I did switch to the good side after ND fell to USF, for posterity's sake I'll just say I was off in my initial prediction. For what it's worth, I had us at 8-4 to end the season, with losses to ND, Iowa, Nebraska, and Illinois, which would of course mean wins against Michigan State and Ohio State.
How do those predictions look now? Well, let's just say the MSU and OSU predictions look far less ridiculous now than they did then. MSU is like the Chicago Bears of the Big Ten (although as a Bears fan, I think I would honestly switch receiving corps with the Spartans, straight up): solid defense, solid skill players, and a ghastly offensive line. In Yost I believe they would refer to the offensive line as a "sieve." If the pre-Bryzgalov Flyers netminders all came together and performed some sort of strange voodoo to turn themselves into an offensive line, they'd become the offensive line of the Michigan State Spartans. Our defensive line is going to look the the New York Giants line when we come to East Lansing. And I'll end this here before it becomes even more mixed metaphor-y.
Ohio State, on the other hand, is not as hopeless a cause as State is. OSU is young but still very talented on defense and at the quarterback and wide receiver positions. After seven more games worth of experience, I think the Buckeyes will be a team to be concerned about. If they played right now, Michigan would win. Unfortunately, they are not, and Posey, Herron, and Adams will be back. On that note, I've kind of slacked on the "Keep Your Enemies Closer" feature, which I'm sure all of 2 Michigan fans read. After doing the Akron and Toledo games but skipping the next two, I may or may not choose to continue it now that we're in the Big Ten schedule and we're playing for keeps.
The Next Four?
No changes from my preseason predictions. Michigan should roll this Saturday; Minnesota is a complete mess right now. Given Minnesota's coaching situation I'm sure Hoke will call off the dogs, which hopefully means we'll see a lot of Devin Gardner. We should beat Northwestern too, Persa or no Persa. State is a team we should be able to beat, and Purdue is just a touch above Minnesota in quality. So that means...8-0?
Blake Countess--Was his above average performance against SDSU a mirage, or can we expect that to continue? A NU passing attack led by a possibly still hurting Persa and an MSU attack with above average receivers but shoddy line play is about the extent of the quality our secondary will face in the next month, so we might not find out in earnest. Then again, we might not even find out all year depending on how highly you think of Iowa's James Vanderberg.
Jake Ryan--Can he learn how to keep contain? That would be cool.
Denard Robinson--Obvious, but can Borges continue to find the balance between too many carries and too few, while also getting Denard in any semblance of a rhythm throwing the ball. I mean, man...even Taylor Martinez is putting up better numbers than Denard and he throws like Tim Tebow would if Tim Tebow was making fun of the inefficiency of his own throwing motion. That needs to change. Jeff at MaizePages suggests that somewhere around 21 carries is the "sweet spot" re: Denard carrying the ball in a given game. I kind of agree but even that makes me nervous that he'll get hurt. That's another big question that I hate to even ask: can Denard stay healthy? Three of these next four games can probably be won without Denard going all roadrunner on defenses...let's save him for when it counts if possible.
If the under center offense continues to stumble against the likes of Minnesota and Purdue, does Borges just completely scrap it before we enter the actually somewhat tough part of our schedule? Does he even try to run from under center against State's front?
Can Fitzgerald Toussaint do enough with his carries to become the undisputed man? A few soft defenses lie ahead of us but Fitz will need to pitch in about 70-80 yards if we want to win in a non-ridiculous fashion for once (i.e., not like '09/'10 ND, '07 MSU, etc.). Our running backs haven't been this meh since that weird "BJ Askew as tailback" era, so it would be really nice if Fitz could break out here pretty soon. I'll even take a 100+ yard game against Minnesota as a sign; I'm not picky.
The Music to Michigan's Season Thus Far
Okay, this is basically just Notre Dame but still...apathetic, uninspired beginnings and then a crescendo building up to the miraculous.
Another week has come and gone and Michigan is 4-0 once again. This is where our collective guard should go up. The last two years, the bridge covering the distance between us and Big Ten glory (or, let's be honest, the Capital One Bowl) dropped out from underneath us, leaving us to the voracious appetite of our conference foes and various reptilian media personalities who shall go unnamed in this space. I'm not going to argue whether or not this time is different because I don't even know what that really means. Does it mean that Michigan will finish the season with more wins? Does it mean that we will be more competitive against the Big Ten schedule (primarily against OSU and MSU)? Does it mean we'll reach some benchmark of improvement , whether vague or statistically specific, that we can at a certain point say that we are doing the opposite of what we were ostensibly doing last season (i.e., regressing)? Does it mean all of these things at once? I'm not really sure. The Big Ten is certifiably pathetic this year (Rittenberg ranked us 3rd--THIRD!--in the conference), and an extra win or two against teams that have replaced PSU and Wisconsin on the schedule, while nice, isn't a reason start making arrangements to cordon off State St. for the biggest pre-Capital One Bowl parade of all time.
With that Debbie Downer bit out of the way, I will say that it feels good to be 4-0 once again even if it could all very well be a mirage, even if we've played only one team (a team whose offense can best be described as Malfunctioning Eddie from Futurama) with a pulse. I'll take it, and with 6-0 looking like a distinct possibility if not an inevitability then all I have to say is let's let the Era of Good Feelings continue.
The Offense
So I think it's safe to say that we're starting to get an idea for what this offense can and can't do as we sit on the precipice of the Big Ten schedule. Watching Denard throw the ball has been an adventure to say the least, and I'm pretty sure the way I feel as Denard is about to release the ball is exactly how I felt in 2009 whenever he'd appear in games. I'm not interested in ridiculous buzz words like "regression" but things don't look good. How long can you pin Denard's lack of accuracy on nerves or unfamiliarity with the schemes or whatever other reason has been conjured up? I believe that Denard gets too hyped up before games, I really do, but at a certain point you've got to learn to harness that excitability and unleash it when you're streaking down the field and trying to destroy the safety's angle with pure, unadulterated speed.
In any case, Denard had yet another Denardian game--are we at the point yet that Denard's performances merit an eponymous adjective, like Kafkaesque but scary in a different way?--passing for a sub-100 amount and running for an amount that would make Forrest Gump tired just thinking about it. Denard's already over halfway to a 1,000 yards rushing this year, a stat which of course includes the rain-shortened Western game where he only had 46. It's hard to complain, but Denard carrying the ball 22 times (of course, only some were by design, but still) compared to Fitz+Smith's 21 is...right? An equitable division of carries? Horrible because because Denard is gonna break, man? I don't know. Maybe we can just keep running Denard all day and he doesn't get hurt at all, but I just find that highly unlikely. If we're running him 26 and 21 times against EMU and SDSU respectively, what does that say about his workload throughout the Big Ten schedule? Once again, thank you 2011 schedule for kind of taking it easy on us. Notre Dame didn't impress all that much against Pitt, but there's an outside shot that ND could end up being the best team we'll have faced all year. Think about that. Notre Dame. I'm not saying it's going to happen, but if it does then this season will be pretty awesome even if it exists only in some mirage-like Matrix world. Denard might not be able to hit an open receiver, but he's still basically Neo with the ball in his hands. If only he could could sit in that chair and receive a training module on how to pass, life would be so much easier.
In non-Denard news, the tailbacks were once again their standard selves. Smith had a pretty poor game minus the one beast mode touchdown and the 32-yarder; any questions about who should start can pretty much be shot into the sun at this point. Toussaint is better, and while he's probably not going to join the pantheon of elite Michigan running backs (sorry, Fred) but he's more than good enough for our purposes. Thirteen carries for 67 yards is an unspectacular but very solid day. He is an agile back with enough quicks to navigate his way to the right hole and occasionally blow through it as he did against Western. Unfortunately, the offensive line has had somewhat of a tough time thus far this year, but it's still early and Michigan will get plenty of chances to hone their ground game in the coming weeks (not to mention in practice).
It's become clear that Hemingway et al are going to fall painfully short of the lofty pre-season expectations that many--including myself--had for him/them. Their numbers just have to go up as the season goes on. As great as Denard doing his thing is, we have way too much talent on the outside to waste. Insert last week's post-EMU general call for hitches, bubble screens, and any other manner of getting the ball from Denard to a receiver for confidence-building and, you know, the actual completion of passes. That'd be nice. Get Denard and Borges in the training room of the Nebuchadnezzar, ASAP.
The Defense
All things considered, the defense is...not a disaster? There are even things to be optimistic about, which is a foreign feeling and makes me uncomfortable even though I know it's a good thing. Of course, Marqueis Gray will run for 900 yards next week and I'll just think yeah, that sounds about right.
Michigan did get a lot of help from Ryan Lindley, who was about as accurate as Denard except that he threw it a whopping 48 times. Unfortunately for the Aztecs, many of Lindley's passes fell nowhere near their intended target, whether due to miscommunication, pressure, or just bad accuracy. Our secondary is giving us reasons to be excited, but they're not at the point where they can subsist completely on the magnitude of their own talents. Lindley only completed 23 of 48 passes for 253 yards, many completed to Tacopants. Michigan did a fine job (as they've done all season) of bringing pressure right up the middle (think back to Demens coming up the middle against Western three times in a row). After doing some amateur scouting of Lindley's performance against TCU last season as part of a general look at the Borges offense, I pegged him [Lindley] as a guy to be pretty worried about, especially when paired with a legitimately above average tailback like Hillman. Lindley disappointed--some of which can be attributed to Michigan's defensive performance--but you also can't deny that the loss of SDSU's top 4 receivers, either to the NFL or injuries, was too much for them to overcome. Other than Escobar and maybe Lockett, SDSU just didn't have the weapons to challenge Michigan's secondary. I guess it's a good thing Michigan's secondary held up pretty well, because if they didn't then that would've meant getting burnt by a receiving corps full of noobs.
On a serious note, can we go ahead and just admit that JT Floyd and not Woolfolk is probably our top corner? Woolfolk taking Hemingway's place as the team injury magnet hasn't helped, but Woolfolk was beaten on a couple of occasions whereas Floyd held his ground nearly every time, with a PBU and just generally good coverage a majority of the time. I used to think of him as a Grant Mason-y type, but he's definitely proven himself to be a little more serviceable than that. Absence makes the heart grow fonder re: Woolfolk, but, he's still a good player and a leader and a more than solid #2 guy at this point in Michigan's rebuild of the defense.
Elsewhere, Martin, RVB, and even Roh were fairly active in this one, and Campbell continued to be not definitively bad, which in Michigan fan terms might as well mean All-American status. Seriously, though, Campbell...he's learning. They can rebuild it...maybe they did? I'll hold off on excessive hype until he starts to prove it against Big Ten teams (not that any of the offensive lines he'll face in October are anything to write home about). After a week where I foolishly thought "so where has Mike Martin?" he showed up time and again, blowing up the middle of the line and getting in Lindley's face. I'm sorry for even thinking about questioning you, Mike. It'll never happen again. So yeah, he's still good but getting doubled over and over again kind of mitigates your impact on the stat sheet. Got it.
Jake Ryan got is first official start and looked pretty good despite getting rocked on that one play that Floyd got temporarily hurt on. I would really love to see Cam Gordon return but at this point I'm just kind of ignoring everything that Brady Hoke says about him, and if he [Cam] returns then I'll treat it like a pleasant surprise. For the time being, though, Jake Ryan is someone to get really excited about. He plays like a freshman at times but he's going to be good when all is said and done.
Contain is still an enormous issue for this defense, but then again containing Ronnie Hillman is difficult for even an experienced, edge-conscious team. Generally, this is further proof that Michigan's defensive speed is not even close to up to snuff; that issue will be rectified in time through S&C and recruiting. For now, we'll have to hope that the team continues to pick up what Mattison is dropping. It definitely looks like they're making some plays that haven't been made in the past few years.
From a statistical perspective, giving up only 7 points (in addition to 10 and 3 against the Michigan direction schools) is nothing to scoff at. Yes, part of this has certainly been luck, and yes, not all of Michigan's turnovers have been forced. Michigan's current turnover rate is unsustainable but that's hopefully okay because Michigan will (ostensibly) be better on both sides of the ball as the season goes on. In any case, holding a back like Hillman to only 109 yards (well below his average) is pretty encouraging. That guy is good, and he'll go on to have many more 100+ yard games this season.
I'm not going to say anything about the safeties because talking about safeties usually means something bad happened, and...nothing bad happened, really. Our safeties are competent, if not good. There, I said it. OUR SAFETIES ARE GOOD, Y'ALL.
The Special Teams
Gibbons?
Also, Matt Wile had a nice game punting the ball, but the assumption is that Hagerup--assuming there isn't any residual post-suspension doghouse stuff going on--should get the starting nod going forward.
Miscellaneous Minutiae
I'll admit it, I definitely thought and said "punt" on that 4th down from our 48. I'm not proud of it, but we all make mistakes. Maybe my brief meeting with Lloyd is to blame for this instance of philosophical and mathematical derpitude? Probably.
Jake Ryan is doing things on the reg now so I'm replacing the "Jake Ryan!" bullet with "Blake Countess!" Yes, let the hype train pick up speed. Seriously, we have actual depth in the secondary this year, and it is glorious. Countess pretty much blanketed his guy despite the fact that Lindley was looking to target him specifically. He honestly might have had a better game than both Avery and Woolfolk.
Hopkins needs to not play for a long time...it should be Smith and Fitz almost exclusively the rest of the way, with Shaw getting the scraps. Hopkins was about to finish off a pretty nice run before he fumbled, which makes it even more frustrating. Some guys just have problems holding onto the ball for whatever reason (it's not like it was an exceptional defensive play or anything), and unfortunately Hopkins is one of those people.
So it looks like I was completely wrong to think that Avery>Floyd in the preseason. I still have high hopes for Avery but he's still young; the lone SDSU touchdown was completed on him.
I'd like to see linebackers and not defensive backs lead the team in tackles in any given game but I guess that comes with the territory of a "bend but don't break."
THIS IS A PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT AND YES I KNOW THIS IS IN ALL CAPS I DON'T EVEN CARE: IT'S 2011, STOP JINGLING YOUR KEYS! IT'S NOT EVEN WITTY OR ORIGINAL, NOT TO MENTION THE FACT THAT IT MAKES ZERO NOISE! I'D RATHER LISTERN TO POP EVIL ON A LOOP FOR 3+ HOURS THAN SEE ANOTHER PERSON JINGLE THEIR KEYS EVER AGAIN! JHWOIFJPIJFQDNQOIDJIDJWIOEIEOI
Okay I'm done. But seriously, stop it.
I'm not 100% sure what the injury situation is regarding Woolfolk and Barnum (and even Cam Gordon), but if there's any doubt about their ability to play then they should sit against the Gophers. Also, if Denard carries the ball any more than 15 times next week (rather, if we need him to) then I might start to get a little frustrated with the state of the offense.
I don't care if this is a mirage or not real or whatever; it's great to be 4-0 once again.
I waited outside the the entrance to one of the student sections with a Diet Coke and a pretzel about an hour before kickoff. As excited as I was for the game, I was surprisingly calm at that moment, and you might even say I wasn't thinking much at tall. The ice in the drink had already started to melt and the drink had become diluted and deprived of its cold, crisp pop. The pretzel was ridiculously salty but I wanted to have something, anything, in my stomach before getting to my seat. The air was heavy but the sun was beginning to go away. It was probably 7:10, 7:15 at that moment. I waited and waited with bated breath for the person who was going to assist me in Operation Get Into The Student Section, which, I'm assuming, everybody has executed at one point or another. I started to get nervous that it wouldn't work out and I'd be stuck sitting with a bunch of random old people in Section 38.
As I stood there chasing the entirely too salty sting of the pretzel with the warm diluted Coke, a lady walked up to me and asked me if I could take her picture. I said sure, and I reached out for her phone while giving her the standard "what button do I push" motion. She pointed it out and then her phone turned off or something so I had to go back to her so she could put her password in to unlock it. As I pulled back again, in my peripheral vision (which, as you will see, shouldn't have been too peripheral at all), I saw something tremendous. That's right. Lloyd Carr. Of course Lloyd Carr was standing right there in front of me, the guy whose tenure as Michigan's head football coach caused me to feel the following emotions in various mixtures and a number of different sequential manifestations between 1995 and 2007: sadness, happiness, elation, frustration, disillusionment, pride, respect, depression, hope, grief, dissatisfaction, anger, admiration, nostalgia, and a number of slight variants of all of the aforementioned and an additional list of emotions and pseudo-worldviews that is too long too list and probably a little bit ridiculous.
I realized that it was in fact Lloyd Carr, standing there smiling with those glasses on and that would have made him look like he should've been standing in front of a group of undergrads in an Angell Hall auditorium, lecturing them about Kipling. The wrinkles in his forehead were there still, as prominent as ever, as if they had been etched into his being forever, a facial feature that, accompanied with his own special brand of communicating with everyone, became intertwined. Bo chewed his gum violently and talked about accountability, chewing so hard that it seemed like he wouldn't to crush it out of this world as if to prove the pure candor and viability of his ideology. Lloyd talked about tremendous things, and his forehead was always the same, furrowed and divided into little segments that seemed to become more pronounced over time.
I'm thinking all these things now, but at that moment I completely froze. Of course I would meet Lloyd Carr while I was standing there like a complete idiot with a drink and a pretzel in my hand. I took the picture and handed it to the lady, seceretly jealous of her accomplishment because I knew I wouldn't ask Lloyd for a picture because I didn't want to stop him from going wherever it was he was going to go. I tried to think of something to say to him before he walked away; the last time I was this close to Lloyd was two years ago in Angell Hall between classes in the corridor where all the auditoriums were located, and I wasn't sure when the next time I'd be this close to a person like him would ever come again. It was crunch time, it was time for me to say something. Naturally, my brain fizzled and turned into a fried egg on a Blimpy burger. The entirety of a childhood and adolescence's worth of watching Michigan football--with Lloyd as its leader--flashed through my head. I was eight years old when Michigan beat Washington State and I remember it like it was yesterday. Everything, from the Pac Ten Road Games of Death to the 2003 Ohio State game to the 2006 Ohio State game to "What kind of stupid question is that?" to the Florida game flashed through my head in a single moment. I had to say something meaningful, and each tenth and hundredth of a second that passed made it less and less likely that I would say anything good enough to encapsulate everything that was running through my head at a million miles an hour.
The lady said thank you but I barely acknowledged it; Lloyd began to walk away and I said two words in the last moment that he was looking at me: Go Blue. He smiled and waved goodbye without saying anything and he didn't even have to. He walked away into the mass of people roaming about the concourse, by himself, as if he was just another guy and not the guy who won a national championship when I was eight. Like that he was gone, and I was left wondering if that had really happened, a moment so bizarrely real and coincidental--for instance, why did I choose to stand at that spot on the concourse, as opposed to any other where I would not have been approached by the woman and Lloyd?--that it's hyper-reality caused me to stop for a second and assess what had just happened. It had happened, but I wasn't sure if it was real.
And that is what Saturday night was like.
The Offense
So, that game. As unbelievable as the game was in every aspect, it brought several issues to the forefront that were concerns merely bubbling in the subconscious of Michigan fans everywhere but are now legitimate, out-in-the-open things to fret about. The first half was just plain frustrating to watch. Other than the 43-yard Hemingway touchdown, Michigan was going nowhere, and it's clear that Borges is still trying to feel out what he can and can't do with Denard. At this point, I think it's pretty obvious. There are certain throws that he definitely should not be making, but, at the same time, Denard still has some work to do on knowing when it's a good time to throw it and when it isn't. I realize that it may be anti-productive re: Denard's development as a pro-style/West Coast/non purely spread quarterback, but there were times where I just had to think that Denard should have taken off. At the same time, I like that we're two games in and Denard isn't broken, so that's good.
Other than Borges's playcalling, the offensive line was just manhandled b Notre Dame's front. I admittedly have not had a chance to watch the game again, and maybe ND was just loading up on the run, but we could get nothing going on the ground for quite some time...which brings me to my next concern: the running backs. At this point, I think Michigan's situation is basically going to constantly be like the 2004 season before the San Diego State game (which, if you'll remember, is when Mike Hart officially become The Man), unless Toussaint can stay healthy, which, good luck with that. I'm still not sure what his deal was, but I'm assuming he was injured, which is frustrating but expected, sadly. However, I will say this (and again, being in the stadium it was hard to notice a lot of things): after looking at the box score, I had no idea that the backs had so few carries. Not only that, but Hopkins getting the most out of any of the backs is kind of absurd. I've been really excited to see what Hopkins can do, especially going forward with his ostensible skills being the logical fit for the offense of the future that they are, but that hype train has completely derailed. Hopkins with 5 and Smith and Shaw with 1 and 2, respectively, is ridiculous and just won't do going forward. Not that Shaw is lighting the world on fire, and not that Smith can really realistically be expected to carry the ball more than a maybe 5-7 times a game, but Hopkins has shown absolutely nothing thus far, while also showcasing a bad case of fumbleitis. Luckily for him, Denard was there for the scoop and score, but it won't work out so nicely the next time that happens. Shaw and Smith can both do what he does (i.e., plow into the line with no vision), but at least they can either take one to the distance if the hole is there (Shaw) or make somebody miss (Smith). Hopkins's only "skill" right now is being big. In short, he needs to not get too many more meaningful snaps, and he definitely shouldn't lead the backs in carries in any game the rest of this season.
The running game is going to hurt us, because Denard is not going to go 11/24 for 338 yards (!) every game. We can only hope that Toussaint gets well soon. Obviously no game is a gimme these days, but we shouldn't need him for a few weeks. Let's hope he's ready by NU or it might have to be Denard left and Denard right once again.
As for the receivers, it was a pretty up and down affair. A few drops from Hemingway and Roundtree were plays that just need to be made, but the big plays of course made up for them in the end. To say that Denard and the wideouts have the ole underthrow the deep ball maneuver down pat would be an understatement. With only 11 receptions spread among seven different guys, it's hard to say anybody had a great game but they made the plays when it counted. Hemingway needs to continue to post up and get the ball going forward...the guy is just a master at that. Also, Jeremy Gallon looked like a player. I'm not so sure about the whole "throwing jump balls to a tiny guy" strategy, but who knows. As sad as I am for the apparent disappearance of Martavious Odoms from the face of the earth, it appears that Gallon passed him up on the depth chart for a reason.
The Defense
It's all relative, I guess. Just putting it out there, but Michael Floyd is pretty good. He consistently made out defensive backs look silly, as he was just bigger, faster, stronger, and better than any of them. Anybody who expected us to shut him down like we did last year was a little naive.
It's obvious that Michigan just can't create any sort of pressure without blitzing, and as I'm sure Brian's UFR will show, blitzing has its costs. On the bright side, the defense really hunkered down and did what it had to do in the second half. Oh the wonders of second half adjustments! Yes, Mr. Mattison, Greg Robinson is interested in what you have to say and would like to subscribe to your newsletter. Other than the complete breakdown on the final ND touchdown, it's hard to be anything but proud about how the defense showed up in the second half. Maybe the Irish are just not good at taking care of the ball (10 turnovers in two games), but you have to credit the defense some.
ND was killing us in yardage in the first half but in the end it didn't matter. Third down defense is of course still an enormous issue, as it has been for pretty much the last eleventy billion years of Michigan football. ND's 8/14 is not what you want to say the least, and that absolutely needs to improve, whether through pressure from the front four (paging Craig Roh) or more zone blitzing from the mind of Coach Mattison, but something needs to change. You have to give ND credit, though; despite the disappointing start to their season, I think you can safely say that that offensive is straight up good and knows how to move the ball. If they can figure out that whole things called "ball security" then they can still somewhat salvage this season. ND will continue to put up yards and points on a lot of people this season, so I don't feel too badly. Rees is plainly a better quarterback than Crist, so they'll at least have continuity at that position barring injury. Floyd is ridiculously good and Cierre Wood looked fast and shifty and quite honestly better than anything we've been trotting out there in the backfield. Even Jonas Gray looked good. ND has some serious talent on offense, and the way that Michigan was able to make some stops and collect some turnovers was encouraging. Baby steps.
Special Teams
Once again, this was nothing to write home about. Wile had a decent but not spectacular day, with five punts good for 38.6 per and a long of 47. Gibbons didn't attempt a field goal for the second week in a row, a thing which is both good and bad. I really hope he gets to kick a few in the coming weeks just for the sake of getting out there and getting some confidence. Eventually, we're going to need him to kick one, as much as we don't want to have to think about it.
The return game was just average again: Smith had five returns for an average of 19.6 per return (a long of 24), and Gallon returned one punt for 15 yards. On the flip side, Theo Riddick had a similar average on kick returns for ND (19.8 per) but he did have a long of 34. Michigan needs to continue to work on this; the defense is simply not good enough to try and stop people playing a short field.
Miscellaneous Minutiae
Here's where I talk about the event itself: unbelievable. I still can't talk. I've been to football games at Auburn, Ohio State, and Penn State, and the Big House was definitely as loud and probably louder than all three. It was surreal, and while there were still your fair share of students just standing there not making noise or doing much of anything on some plays, the student section was loud, as was the rest of the stadium. Home field advantage may or may not be overrated but you can't tell me that it didn't help and that it didn't affect ND (in addition to energizing the Wolverine players as well).
Music: I was once completely against piped-in music, but its pretty undeniable that its a net positive, if not a significant one. Other than Pop Evil, which needs to just go away forever, the piped-in music did its job. Sometimes you just have to make a compromise in an attempt to reach out to certain groups of fans (i.e., students, the casual fan, the not-old-and-grumpy adult fan, etc.), and quite frankly it was a huge success. As ubiquitous as Seven Nation Army has become, even the most die-hard traditionalist would have to admit that the moments after they played it the first time were just plain awesome. Obviously, we've got to watch what we play (Thunderstruck, Welcome to the Jungle, SNA, and maybe a couple of others, are on a short list of piped-in music that shouldn't make you upset) and when we play it going forward, but this Saturday was a perfect mix of band and piped-in music in my humble opinion. If we could just get rid of Pop Evil and Sweet Caroline then it would pretty much be perfect.
The pom-poms--also known as "shakers" in SEC country--were awesome and an aesthetic victory whether you were in the stadium or watching from home. To the people that complain about them, just watch any old Michigan games and you'll find Michigan fans with said pom-poms (for example, the 1998 Rose Bowl). This isn't a "new" thing, so Down In Front guy needs to chill out and decry something else.
Maybe I'm just imagining things, but the amplification of the band sounded a lot better than it did last season: am I imagining this? I don't even know anymore.
This should easily and without question happen once a year. Sure, night games in the future will never measure up this one, but other schools have them all the time...why not us? The fact that people have treated the concept of a night game as some ridiculous foreign concept that has come down to Earth from Mars or something has been fairly amusing. Traditions have to start somewhere, and I think this could be another one in an already extensive list of Michigan traditions.
Jake Ryan! Again, Jake Ryan showed some promise.
BOOM BRANDIN HAWTHORNE OUTTA NOWHERE. Man, Hawthorne looked like he could be a factor this year. He looked fast and aggressive and overall like a guy you'd want out there on defense that I could imagine being one of those mean, kind of undersized SEC linebackers. I'm excited to see what he does the rest of this season. I'm sure he made some mistakes, but this was an enormous step forward for him: going from an anonymous afterthought to a legitimate contender to start is no small feat.
Desmond Morgan is just not ready to be a starter let alone a frequent participant. Maybe in a year or two, but not now.
In perhaps one of the most encouraging developments of the game, Will Campbell showed some signs of improvement. I can't remember what point in the game it was but he absolutely demolished some poor lineman on one play, and was involved in a number of others as well. He's still not starter material, but if Campbell can become a reliable run-stopping rotation guy then that would be an enormous asset. I'm sure the way his career has gone has been infinitely more frustrating for him than every Michigan fan combined, so it was nice to see him dancing around and getting hyped up there in the fourth quarter. I am legitimately happy for him and I hope he can continue to improve.
Craig Roh...man. I'm not sure what the deal is, but he just has not been a factor at all this season. I honestly don't have anything to say because I have no idea what's going on; Jibreel Black has been a bigger factor than Roh this year.
It looks like 2009 Vincent Smith is officially back. He looked quick on that screen pass after a year or so of not looking like nearly the quick little guy he was pre-knee injury. I don't think he's a guy that should get too many carries on a regular basis, but he's still an invaluable part of this offense.
It was great to be back in the Big House again...to all the current students out there, enjoy it while it lasts.
I know I saw Odoms out there at least once...he came in only to go back out after Michigan called a timeout. I just feel terrible for the guy. I really hope we can get him involved at some point; despite Gallon's emergence, Odoms still brings a lot of things to the table.
Denard is the man. Seriously, has there ever been a more likable Michigan athlete? "THE GAME IS OVER!"
All I have to say is that I'm glad we've got Eastern this week.
Hello, Internet. I am Fouad Egbaria, a Michigan grad ('11) and recent graduate of the MSJ program at Northwestern's Medill School of Journalism. This is a blog that attempts to analyze the highs and lows of Michigan football and basketball; I'm just trying to capture the spirit of the thing. I will also write about general Big Ten news, as well as Chicago professional sports (from time to time).
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