Miscellaneous Minutiae, 8/9/2012

FSU trivia to impress your friends with. Question: who was the last Florida State wide receiver/tailback to catch/rush for 1,000 yards in a single season? I'll give you a second. Done pretending to think? Well, if you said Anquan Boldin and Warrick Dunn, you are either: a) a FSU fan b) Phil Steele or something or c) somebody who just pulled the "smart phone under the table on trivia night" cheating maneuver.

If you didn't know the answer, then you are probably a little bit shocked (at least I was, particularly with the answer for tailback. Warrick Dunn? Wow. I'm not sure there is another bit of trivia that truly shows how far FSU had fallen during the last five or six years of the Bowden era. Matt Hinton writes writes this year's "Is FSU for real?" post, which is especially topical after I, for the second year in a row, plugged my nose and picked FSU to do some nice things in 2012:

The skill positions have been no less of a revolving door. Devonta Freeman and Rashad Greene were encouraging in their debuts, but hardly revelatory enough to peg either as an emerging star in an offense that has had astonishingly few of them over the last decade: FSU hasn't produced a 1,000-yard receiver since Anquan Boldin in 2002, or a 1,000-yard rusher since Warrick Dunn in 1996.

Kind of crazy, right?

Hey, you guys. Did you know that people in the South care so much about football? It's true. They just want it more. That's why they're so good. Rick Bragg, author of All Over But The Shoutin', actually wrote this:

An award-winning author of books on Southern history, Rable is not a native Southerner but grew up in another football incubator, in Lima, Ohio, in the swirl of Ohio State-Michigan, rooting for the Buckeyes. He came down here to see real obsession. He once exited Tiger Stadium as the faithful chanted: "Go to hell, Ole Miss, go to hell."

"And," he says, "we weren't playing Ole Miss."

Ah, yes. "Real obsession." That can definitely only be found in Dixie.

It's difficult to be too hard on Bragg because he is speaking as a sort of chronicler of the South as opposed to an active participant and/or endorser of its most ridiculous manifestations of insanity. He even mentions that he does not tie his worth to the outcome of the game, which is a nice sentiment that I like because many people have that problem.

Still, the entire piece was tiresome, worse, even, than an SEC team's fans chanting "S-E-C!" after a bowl victory instead of singing their school's fight song. Thankfully, we have Spencer Hall to make fun of these sorts of caricaturized, hackneyed drivel:

One time, COLORFUL REGIONAL ANECDOTE.

My uncle once worked at a turtle factory, where they make turtles and sometimes shotguns and pies. South Carolina had just beaten Georgia, and the plant manager was a big ol' South Carolina fan. He was just standing there, a-hootin' and a-hollerin' about, "woooo Go Cocks" when my uncle just up and popped him in the temple with a .38. THAT'S DEDICATION. Second degree manslaughter got the word "laughter" in it, and that's something I learned by watching Gallagher.

Homespun folk wisdom for its own sake, devoid of real depth or any sort of probing complexity, is an unfortunate way to have to describe something written by a dyed-in-the-wool Southerner like Bragg. I almost feel bad striking at something that is obviously heartfelt, but it is lazy writing, not to mention a passive-aggressive, literarily dressed up version of hollering "S-E-C" over and over again in some poor Yankee's face. 

On "luck." In light of this week's Big 12 previews and the discussion of "luck" with respect to Kansas State's win total and Oklahoma State's defense (i.e. TO margin), this post from Bill C on the issue of luck pertaining to Oklahoma State's 2011 defensive performance was fairly topical:

Let's summarize: Oklahoma State's defense was absolutely a bit lucky in 2011. They picked off about five more passes than they probably should have, and they recovered about four more fumbles than they probably should have. A swing of nine turnovers can obviously make an enormous difference over the course of the season. (They did, after all, benefit from about 3.4 turnover luck points per game.) That said, this defense wasn't based entirely on lucky bounces. Yes, OSU allowed a ton of yards. (They ranked 107th in yards per game allowed.) That's what happens when you a) face Arizona, Tulsa, Texas A&M, Missouri, Baylor, Kansas State, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Stanford, and b) do so with your own offense running at a nuclear pace (and therefore face a ton of plays). 

Michigan was also lucky last season, in the colloquial sense as well as the statistical "well that probably wouldn't have happened in most trials" one. Per Bill C, thing that are not attributable to luck include defending passes (i.e. interceptions+PBUs) and forced fumbles. Things that are mostly luck-based? Fumble recovery and interceptions. The whole "is fumble recovery rate mostly luck?" debate is one that has raged on many times at MGoBlog, and the best answer that I can come up with is this: it is luck and it isn't, which isn't much of an answer at all. Is a certain outcome attributable to "luck" if that outcome's likelihood (i.e. a recovered fumble) can be increased with a specific and narrow focus from a coaching staff? I would say yes and no. You can practice it, but at the end of the day a football is a prolate spheroid that bounces without rhyme or reason, and when you throw a pile of 250-320 pound dudes into the equation, cause and effect is like in a jungle of white noise. Something something preparation something opportunity.

As we all know, Michigan was tied for first in fumble recoveries last year with, you guessed it...Oklahoma State. I will be completely honest. I have the utmost confidence in these coaches, but there's a bubbling undercurrent of worry when you combine the above, the loss of 75% of the defensive line, and a frightening lack of depth at several positions. On the bright side, there aren't very many Big Ten offenses that appear to be exceedingly scary.

Underneath Michigan's #6 scoring defense was a team that was 36th in 3rd down conversion percentage defense, 39th in run defense, and, as mentioned, 1st in fumble recoveries. Against the better offenses on the schedule, namely Notre Dame and Virginia Tech (and Ohio State, obviously), Michigan was decidedly a bend-but-don't break group. Take Martin, RVB, and Heininger away from that defense and that dam starts to get quite a bit leakier, the margin of error smaller.

Of course, guys have gotten better over the summer. I don't mean this to be completely doom and gloom. Michigan's back 7, while not exactly supremely athletic, returns intact and should be very good.  The defensive line has its own questions: Campbell, Roh's move to SDE, Ryan's potential move to WDE, Jibreel Black on the inside, whether or not guys like Washington give us anything, and the overall readiness of Ondre Pipkins.

Instead of thinking about the dispassionate pendulum of turnover "luck" swinging back the other way counter to Michigan's interests, I'm just going to keep saying "trust the coaches" and playing the Jake Ryan running down David Wilson play over and over until September 1st.

Alabama secondary. Some general fluff about the Alabama secondary, Saban's favorite positional group and object of much spleen and OCD-ing. As mentioned in exhaustive detail during the position previews that I did a while back, the Tide have to replace three starters in the secondary, all NFL draft picks (Dre Kirkpatrick, Mark Barron, DeQuan Menzie). FS Robert Lester returns, but somebody needs to fill the shoes of the departed top-10 pick Mark Barron at SS. DC Kirby Smart on Vinnie Sunseri (son of new Tennessee DC Sal Sunseri):

"He's not Mark Barron, he's not trying to be Mark Barron; he's trying to be Vinnie and he's done that well," Smart said. "He makes a lot of big plays."

Well, we'll see about that. As for Sunseri's challengers:

Sophomore HaHa Clinton-Dix should also see significant action, especially when Alabama goes to its nickel and dime packages. Five-star freshman Landon Collins, who boasts a strong 6-foot, 202-pound frame, certainly looks the part of an SEC safety but will have to pick up Saban's and Smart's system quickly if he hopes to make an immediate impact.

Clinton-Dix has been talked about as an option at corner as well, so this is no surprise. Either way, all options here are very talented but young and inexperienced. I would imagine that Al Borges would have to find a way to scheme against this relative weakness (and I mean relative).

IT'S RAWLS-ERRING TIME. First of all, official position re: Toussaint. If he plays against Alabama, I would be fairly disappointed.

With that out of the way, I've already figured Toussaint's absence for that game into my worldview, so it's time to think about the backups. Al Borges made an explicit nod to sophomore mooseback Thomas Rawls, which isn't so much a depth chart surprise, really, but an explicit nod from this coaching staff is something worth clinging to on this day, August 9th, 2 Anno Hokeini. 

"We're just going to the next guy -- we're not really changing anything," Borges said during a news conference at Schembechler Hall. "Thomas Rawls is going to be that next guy. Vince is going to do what he's done, and on we go.

 Ramp up the speculation machine, but I have to think that Toussaint is not playing on September 1st. Anyway, in theory a guy like Rawls being Michigan's main option is nice against a team like Alabama. In theory. For a power back to get anything going, you need a line built to block for that sort of back, something that Michigan decidedly does not have. I don't care how "angry" Rawls runs, but I'm pretty much having visions of Rawls having to run through guys in the backfield just to get back to the line of scrimmage. A power back that hasn't really proven anything other than the fact that he can run over Jarrod Wilson plus a line that is good to very end at tackle but not exactly powerful in the interior, seems to me a recipe for a 10-12 carry, thirty-something type performance.

For some reason, I think that Stephen Hopkins will have his number called many times on 9/1. Michigan needs to do just enough to afford Denard some credibility and a modicum of space when he does in fact tuck it and run. Borges name dropped Rawls, Vincent Smith, and Justice Hayes, but I think Hopkins has to have his best game of his career of Michigan is going to even match their anemic Sugar Bowl output.

More? UMHoops on Zak Irvin's summer. Spoiler alert: he's very good. Dana Holgorsen got himself a 6-year extension at WVU. That noise was the collective resigned exhalation of Big 12 defensive coordinators everywhere.

From Stewart Mandel's mailbag, he says that Michigan "probably should [be ranked #1]" if Michigan beats Alabama. That would be cool.

Spring Game Thoughts of Debatable Utility

A Preface: The Spring Game is meant to be a glorified practice. Nothing that happened in Michigan's spring game yesterday should be used to predict anything that might happen in the fall. It is an event that's simply meant to be a fun way for fans to watch some pseudo-footbaw in April. That's it. As such, all of the following are simply observations on what happened on Saturday, in a vacuum. 

• On the brightness of the helmet numbers: I am about to give you all a history lesson, free of charge. Many grade school teachers will tell you that, back in the day, as the Roman Empire was collapsing in the west, that it was all the the product of multiple centuries' worth of societal, political, and economic strife, not to mention the incessant waves of Germanic invasions that eventually brought the empire to its knees in the officially accepted year of collapse, AD 476. Do you want to the real reason for the empire's collapse? The by and large  obscure Roman emperor Davidus Brandanius issued an edict that called for "the inscription of excessively shiny numbers and #GOROME on each Roman soldier's helmet." This was of course done in order to spread the brand of Rome far and wide, as conquered peoples would see this inscriptions and cease to resist the Roman intrusions on their land. I mean, who wouldn't want to engage in and be a part of such a thing? Exactly. Unfortunately, in later battles, the sun would reflect upon these brightly painted inscriptions, reflecting sunlight off of the helmets and into each soldier's eyes, leading to massive breakdowns in the phalanx formation, and, ultimately, defeat in battle and general ownage at the hands of the various Germanic invaders. We would do well to learn from the mistakes of the past. 

          Okay, that was stupid. Tl;dr--who cares. Moving on!

• Devin Gardner: I guess you can't really start anywhere else. I spent last season defending Denard against the "play Devin" people and it looks like I'll spend this offseason defending Devin against the "move him to wide receiver" folks. For the record, I do think he should absolutely get on the field as a receiver if he proves to be up to it, but if Hoke says he's the QB2 then that's enough for me. 
• A couple errant throws shouldn't be enough to freak people out, particularly since said people are probably the same ones who were calling for Devin to take over last year because of his passing ability. Remember, these guys haven't played in front of large numbers of people since January, and it's not like Devin has all that much game experience anyway. 
• I understand the fact that, being a rising junior, many are expecting "more" from Devin, but it doesn't work out that way all the time. The INT wasn't great but it was just a solid break on the ball by Countess; Devin wasn't locked onto Jeremy Jackson, Navarre-style. Jackson also could have done a better job of understanding where Countess was and working his way back to the ball, but Gardner needed to either get the ball out a second earlier or he shouldn't have thrown it at all. You live and learn. I believe Denard when he says that this outing was not indicative of how Devin has performed in practice. 
• He short-hopped one and then awkwardly shotputted a checkdown but looked much more comfortable looking downfield, where he completed an intermediate pass down the middle of the field to Jeremy Gallon (the pass was a little behind Gallon, but good enough to be completed). His footwork and mechanics weren't great on this day, but you have to figure that general rust and/or nervousness played somewhat of a factor. In short, better to get these sorts of things worked out now than in September. 
• On the positive side, Gardner looked as athletic as ever when the pass wasn't there. Of course, it's easy to run when you know you're not about to get thumped. However, it is nice to know that if Denard has to step out for a play or two, we can bring in a supremely athletic 6'4'' guy at quarterback. 

Blake Countess getting some run with the offense...wait, what? 

(Melanie Maxwell/annarbor.com)

• Russell Bellomy: On a related note, Bellomy looked like he could be a capable option down the road (as much as one can say such a thing after watching a spring scrimmage). He left that pass to Jerald Robinson, forcing him to go to his knees to catch it, but overall it's difficult to make any sweeping generalizations about arm strength given the nature of the passes he was throwing. Bellomy does look the part of the ideal Borges quarterback, however, and with another year of seasoning and some badly needed time in the weight room, I wouldn't be surprised to see him challenge for playing time next year and the year after (and yes, I am figuring Shane Morris's arrival into that outlook). 

• Wide receivers: It wasn't an impressive day for the receivers, but, again, general spring game caveat goes here. There was really no effort to stretch the field, and let's not forget that Michigan actually has competent to pretty good players in the secondary these days. It's difficult to make a real assessment here because I was watching on TV, but it's unclear for me whether or not the wideouts were simply not getting open or if Devin was hesitant to hit them, particularly after the INT. Whatever the case may be, I think it's fairly obvious that we need Jerald Robinson to step up or we're going to be hoping that Darboh or Chesson fill the big WR role when they get to Ann Arbor in the fall. He definitely looks the part but didn't seem to do much on Saturday (2 rec., 9 yards). 

• Desmond Morgan injury: Let's hope that it isn't anything serious, because that would be an awful loss even if we're talking about him simply missing some summer conditioning/player practices. I didn't catch this live, but apparently this is what knocked him out. That's what you like to see from your tailbacks, and Fitz will definitely need to do that a few times against Alabama's 3-4 outside backers if Michigan wants to keep Denard in one piece. 

• Hawthorne and Jones: Other than sounding like a law firm, these two had a productive day. Sure, they were up against walk-ons and backups most of the time, but they are experienced players that can fill in if injuries strike (knock on wood). This, folks, is what elite teams call "depth." Depth, meet Michigan football, Michigan football, meet depth. FWIW, the same positive depth-related sentiments apply for the secondary and guys like Courtney Avery, Raymon Taylor, and Terrence Talbott. Hawthorne's hit on Justice Hayes was the speedy, slashing sort of play that we've seen Hawthorne make before, namely early on in the 2011 season (e.g. the Notre Dame game). 

• Denard: A short day, obviously, but he did make a couple of crisp completions, first on the slant to Gallon and second on a rollout to Roundtree near the right sideline. These may seem like routine plays, but they really haven't been for Denard. If he can make these sorts of throws with consistency, the offense gets better by at least an order of magnitude. This will be especially true against Alabama, as I would imagine that Borges will look to move the pocket fairly often.

• Thomas Rawls: A Bull Moose like Teddy Roosevelt. But, seriously, he looks like the stereotypical Big Ten mooseback. On the 21-yard TD run in the first half, Washington, Ash, and Heitzman were on the field for the defense. Rawls eluded a flailing tackle attempt from Heitzman in the hole, while Washington made a similar attempt but didn't come nearly as close as Heitzman did. On the second level, Rawls broke a tackle attempt from early enrollee Jarrod Wilson en route to daylight and the end zone. All in all a poor sequence of events for the defense, but it's nice to see Rawls hit the hole hard. It was very reminiscent of Kevin Grady's touchdown against Vanderbilt in 2006. No matter what Fred Jackson says, Grady is the obvious YMRMFSPA for Rawls. 

• Defensive line aka I'M SO GLAD OUR FIRST GAME IS AGAINST ALABAMA WOO: This might be the only unit to add to any Michigan fan's list of THINGS TO BE DEEPLY CONCERNED ABOUT, but that's only because these concerns existed the second after the careers of Mike Martin, Ryan van Bergen and Will Heininger ended. Hoke calling the interior of the defense "soft" is not a good sign, but is also standard motivational verbiage. I will say, however, that people should be careful when they try to parse Hoke's pressers, especially when he uses words like "soft" or "physical." Maybe it's just me, but it seems like Hoke uses these words as a catch-all for "bad" and "good" play. Of course, the interior needs to get better, but I'm not sure that any problems on Saturday were the result of guys like Campbell, Washington, Ash, Black, etc. just not playing hard enough or tough enough. In any case, minus the TD run from Rawls and some nice runs from Fitz, it's not like the interior was getting blown up with regularity. On the flip side, there wasn't much push up the middle or general pressure, but, you know...whatever. There's a long way to go until September 1st. 

• Chris Bryant: Is huge. Hoke emphasized that there's always competition for every position, which is typical coachspeak but you get the feeling that he means it more than a lot of coaches do when they say those sorts of things. Mealer and Omameh are ostensibly the starters at LG and RG if the season started today, but it seems that neither position is safe, which is a latter more worrisome vis-a-vis Omameh. 

• Toussaint: There's not much to say. No offense to Brandon Minor, but Toussaint is Michigan's first All-Big Ten type player since Hart. Fitz looked quick, agile, and showed a bit of power in finishing his runs, namely one play which ended with him essentially bowling over J.T. Floyd near the sideline. There are some question marks on this team, but one thing I'm fairly sure of: Fitz is about to have a monster year.

Well-executed inside zone for 10 (HT: mgovideo)

• The Michigan Defense's Excellent Adventure: Given Jake Ryan's neck roll and several other players sporting the half jersey thing, Michigan's defense looked like it arrived at Michigan Stadium straight from the 1980s via some sort of time traveling phone booth. Whatever works, guys. If the defense can continue to play like those vintage Bo defenses from the 1980s then keep on keepin' on. 

• Philanthropy!: Spring game donations for Mott amounted to a whopping $161,080, and that is apparently before it will be matched by the Beam family. Well done everybody. 

People In America Excited About A Book, 10/25/2011

I'd like to do some more generic daily news/links type posts from this point forward--like I did occasionally over the summer--but I never had a uniform name for them, like MGoBlog's Unverified Voracity or EDSBS's Curious Index...eventually I'll think of a somewhat witty name for this thing that nobody will read (the old school Conan-esque self-deprecation is strong here, y'all). I haven't really been able to keep up with the schedule I outlined before the season started but the weekly game recap, rankings opinions, and Friday feature are still there, so I'm looking to fill out the middle part of the week with something. So, here goes.

Three and Out: As everybody is aware, John Bacon's "Three and Out" is officially out there for the hoi polloi, and AnnArbor.com states the obvious in noting that Bacon probably isn't winning him some friends with this one:

John Bacon didn't make any new friends and might've lost some old ones with his book, "Three and Out," that looks at the Rich Rodriguez era in Michigan football.

"The main figures have made their displeasure with the book and author clear," Bacon said.

I won't be getting my copy until probably early next week, but coverage of the book thus far has already been pretty extensive, a fact that should lessen the brunt of some of the book's more surprising revelations. I'm looking forward to reading it (and not looking forward to it at the same time), but once I get through it I plan on posting a general review here (as will everybody else, I'm sure). As a general preface, I will say that anybody who plans on reading it should stray away from making ridiculous black and white assertions about any of the key figures described in the book, but that should be common sense. People are often more complex figures than anyone can imagine, and I'm sure this book will be a testament to that. 

At the same time, as a 22 year-old who grew up with Michigan football under Lloyd Carr (and as a freshman at Michigan in 2007 who saw Lloyd's final season unfold), it will be hard not to come away a little bit disillusioned...but, you probably already know that if you're reading this. 

Even Spencer Hall of EDSBS fame is weighing in on the book that is raining cash on Bacon like Seth Poege passes over Oklahoma's hapless secondary:

The other prevailing impressions from the book thus far: Bill Stewart keeping Casteel was disastrous and like the most Bill Stewart thing to do ever, the coach at West Virginia faces some of the weirdest political currents ever, and Denard Robinson fucking rules.

The New Guys: Going back to the same source, Kyle Meinke talks about the bye week with respect to several freshmen expected to see increased roles going forward, namely Frank Clark, Brennen Beyer, Thomas Rawls, Blake Countess, and Raymon Taylor. We've already seen all five of them to some extent, with Countess obviously receiving the most playing time, often looking like Michigan's best corner as a freshman. 

Perhaps most newsworthy is the fact that Jake Ryan has officially supplanted Cam Gordon as the starter on the strong side. I'm not exactly sure how I feel about this, but it is what it is. Gordon got in on special teams against State but didn't do anything else, so maybe Hoke and Mattison believe that it's just too late to expect him to jump back in and be the guy he was supposed to be. It's unfortunate, really...as much as I've lamented the disappearance of Martavious Odoms after his offseason injury issues, Cam's demotion is equally sad. 


Either way, I hope that Gordon will get some time going forward. While Ryan has been pretty good for a freshman, he's been an outright liability at times; that is to be expected, of course, but that doesn't mean that Cam can't potentially work his way back in in time. As the coaches seem to understand, this is the perfect time to work some of these guys in, as these week should hopefully serve as a sort of tryout for a lot of these guys. 

Other than that, Taylor is a guy who intrigues me athletically. He saw some time as the nickel earlier on in the season, and while I don't think he should get tons of time, his above average speed leads me to believe that he could be useful as a Brandon Harrison-type blitz monger. As for Rawls...shoot, it can't hurt to try him? Either way, we can't run the ball as few times as we did against State and expect Toussaint and Smith to get going. I expect us to come out and run the ball a lot in this game...if we can't do it successfully then we are in major trouble. How the line accounts for Kawann Short will be a major factor in getting this done. 

Optimism Abounds: WolverineNation collects the opinions of the various Michigan folks on why "this time it's different." So, that's nice. Former MGoBlog recruting guru TomVH says that Michigan is "doing very well in California," which hopefully means that a Payton commitment is forthcoming. I'm not a recruiting expert by any means so I don't really know what to make of the delay in his announcement after visiting South Bend this past weekend, but for now it seems that our chances are just as good as anybody else's. Either way, Michigan going back to the old recruiting formula of recruiting Michigan and Ohio (and Pennsylvania), and pulling skill guys from California is hard to argue against, as exciting as the brief Florida connection was. 

Redemption Song: Yeah yeah we only talk about guys that play for Michigan (is that still something we say?), but it's nice to see former recruit Demar Dorsey hopefully getting back to Division I ball. It's easy to be a cynic these days, and while he will never play for Michigan I hope that he continues to turn his life around. You can say that his academics weren't up to par and that he shouldn't have been recruited in the first place (that's a different issue entirely), but you can't fault him for trying when so many others like him have entered the somewhat ignominious structure of JUCO-level ball only to never resurface. 

Submitted Without Comment:

More? Big 12 "voices desire" for Mizzou to stay put, also translated to "PLEASE DON'T GO." Some not good news for OSU tailback Jaamal Berry...probably won't have much of an on-the-field impact but there it is. Ramzy of ElevenWarriors touches on the upcoming "Oversigning Bowl"...as great as the game will be, it's a  shame that this undercurrent has to exist.Can't wait for the game against NFC South contender Alabama next year! Oregon looking like it will continue without the services of Cliff Harris...somehow I think they'll be alright. Also, this is a thing.