In case you didn't already know, tonight's game has been postponed due to the unfortunate weather in the Midwest. Thank you, weather; I really enjoyed writing that preview earlier, and definitely didn't mind wasting my time doing it. Hamburgers.
In other news, the pre-bowl game dead period continues to produce tremendous material. Here's a video featuring Will Campbell trying and approximately 99.9% failing to get on a banana boat:
Campbell sums up the day:
It's hard out here. I done fought two sharks,
wrassled a sting ray, ate two crabs--had butter out there. It's hard
out here but you know how we do it, I'm from Detroit. You know, it was
nothing. Two great whites, punched a whale in the face... easy day. Go
Blue.
William Campbell fought and defeated numerous sea creatures of all sorts. As such, the interior of South Carolina's line shouldn't provide much of a challenge to Campbell, who rules the Tampa Bay just so long as he does not have to get on a banana boat.
No, this has not nonsensically transformed into a Bulls blog. I am aware that Michigan has a football team still. Anyway, here's the first preview in a while from me (since ND, actually). Enjoy.
Last week:"Denard will play. Don't you trust me, guys?"
Time: 12 ET (ESPN)
Place: Michigan Stadium--Ann Arbor, MI
Line: Michigan -9.5
Mood: Let's take care of business, eh?
This season, like every one before it, has sped on without your consent, like a city bus driver who sees you running up to door outside buts pull away anyway.
After a second trip up in Iowa City last season, the Wolverines entered the final triumvirate of games (Illinois, Nebraska and Ohio State) with a lot at stake and many questions left unanswered. Would the Wolverines be able to shake their offensive struggles on the road to get the win against a defensively solid Illini team? What about Nebraska? I also heard that there was some sort of looming streak against the Buckeyes that needed to be taken care of that definitely hadn't constantly been on all of our minds.
The circumstances this time around aren't exactly the same. Michigan rolls into this stretch with one more loss than they had at this point last season, this year's Iowa team is probably the weakest of either trio of opponents in question (i.e. last three games of 2011 and 2012) and the Wolverines get a much better Ohio State team on the road.
As a relatively new student at Northwestern, I took it upon myself to, you know, pay attention to Northwestern football. I watched most of--and in some cases, all (!)--the Wildcats' first five games, but I admittedly haven't been able to keep up from the Penn State game onward. So, a decent percentage of the things I will write here are colored significantly by watching them in September, FWIW.
On Offense
Brady Hoke will continue to say things regarding Denard's status, but it's pretty clear at this point that Hoke is the Mozart of the trolling craft (yes, you the annoyed fan are indeed Salieri in this ridiculous analogy). With that said, I'm going to remain under the assumption that Devin Gardner will start until proven otherwise, which should happen at right around 11:59 a.m. ET on Saturday.
Northwestern has actually been pretty tough defensively this season, particularly against the run, which is bad news for a Michigan team that hasn't gotten much of a non-Denard ground game going against anybody this season. If Denard goes, this concern is mitigated, but that is, in fact, an "if." Northwestern sits at a respectable 43rd in defensive S&P+; of course, they are 49th in pass defense S&P+, 35th against the pass, furthering my already extensive confusion vis-a-vis the world of ADVANCED STATZ.
DC Mike Hankwitz has done a good job molding this defense into a solid run D outfit, headlined by its three linebackers, Damien Proby, Brian Nwabuisi, and the spectacularly named Chi Chi Ariguzo. Before I move on, I just want to note that Mike Hankwitz basically is Heisenberg, you guys:
Maybe we should not mess with this guy. (HT: nusports.com)
The Wildcats have had capable linebackers in the past, including some guy named Pat Fitzgerald, so it's no surprise that that is the case now. Proby and Nwabuisi lead the team in tackles (86 and 75, respectively) and Ariguzo and safety Ibraheim "Guy You Probably Know From Reading Preseason Preview Magazines" Campbell are tied at third with 67 each. That is the sign of a good run defense.
The Cats have given up 41 on the road at Syracuse, 39 at Penn State, 29 against Nebraska in a pseudo-home game and had a rough second half against Indiana (albeit one that featured an IU kickoff return for a TD from Tevin Coleman), with the Hoosiers finishing with 29 after backup Nate Sudfeld had taken over at quarterback. Otherwise, the Northwestern D has generally put the clamps down on most teams, although none of those teams are very good at the offense thing.
Unfortunately, Michigan has been debatably good on that front as well. However, this defense isn't Alabama's or Notre Dame's, obviously. For a point of reference, Iowa sits at 45th in def. S&P+, two spots behind NU.
As you'd expect, the weak link in this defense is the secondary. Campbell, to quote Hoke, is a "guy who can do some things," but he can't do it alone. Redshirt freshman corner Nick VanHoose has shown promise at times but has also been picked on at various points; the same applies for Stanford grad transfer Quinn Evans. However, the two didn't play two weeks ago against Iowa after VanHoose suffered a shoulder injury and Evans an ankle injury against Nebraska the week before. Playing backups at both corner spots against Iowa, the Wildcats made it okay, giving up only 17 points against an Iowa offense that has been absolutely disastrous minus Mark Weisman's TRUE GRIT.
To make a long story short, Northwestern will generally look to contain Denard and hope he doesn't complete any bombs deep like he did last season. This generally worked during the first half last season, when Denard tossed three picks. Given what we saw from Gardner last week, the Wildcats might not be in a much better position if he ends up starting.
This is the type of game that probably keeps Borges up the night before. I'm talking about the "night before the first game of the season excitement" sort of restlessness and not the "OH GOD I HAVE TO DO THIS AGAIN I HAVE A LINE MADE OF OFFICE SUPPLIES AND EVERYBODY HATES ME NO MATTER WHAT AHHH" kind.
Michigan will likely get off to a slow start again as it finds its bearings and establishes a non-zero threat to run. Once that happens, look for Borges to initiate "RexGrossmanGameplanGOINGDEEP.exe."
On Defense
As frustrating as it has been to talk about the offense, the defense has been like a ceaseless ray of sunshine. Michigan is truly #blessed to have a DC like Greg Mattison, no question Jim.
The Wildcats have been a shifting amorphous blob of an offense, particularly at quarterback, but it would seem that they have decided to roll with Kain Colter full-time. Pocket passing freshman Trevor Siemian got some serious run early in the season, with Colter serving as a Wildcat (literally) QB/WR. Siemian attempted only one pass against Iowa, and the 'Cats only threw the ball 10 times total. That's "Big Ten football at its best."*
But wait, it's not, because Northwestern is decidedly a run-based spread outfit. The 'Cats are 13th in rushing yardage per game (236 per) and 113th in passing (162 per). If you have watched Northwestern play for even five minutes this season, this is probably not a surprise to you.
Colter is not Denard when it comes to top-end speed, but in the context of a read-option offense, that's not necessarily the most important thing. Colter, as I mentioned earlier in the season, has a particular set of skills. Of those skills, neck chopping the zone read is one which he executes masterfully, making me wish Denard could do the same every time I see it unfold.
The Wildcats have managed a 61:41 run-pass split to date. Complementing Colter's zone read sorcery is diminutive tailback Venric Mark, who has honestly been one of the most exciting players in the country. He is a threat to break a big play at almost any time. Mark has racked up 910 yards with a nice and shiny 6.1 YPC.
The Wildcats do in fact have some capable receivers, even if Kyle Prater hasn't turned out to be the instantly impactful guy that NU fans were hoping. The quartet of Tony Jones, Demetrius Fields, Rashad Lawrence and Christian Jones all have similar numbers (200s in yardage, 0-2 TDs each). The Wildcats don't pass much though, especially with Colter taking almost all of the snaps.
Michigan shut down a run-based Minnesota team last week and did a pretty solid job against Nebraska (up until the very end) despite have an offense about as effective as one composed of 11 boxes of Cheerios. Washington and Campbell should be able to get a little push up the middle when NU does pass or run little isos and draws out of the shotgun.
Where Michigan can get beat, on occasion, is on the edges. With Colter and Mark's general jukability, Michigan's edge defenders will need to be vigilant. Even the glorious Jake Ryan has had lapses on the edge this season, although they've been relatively infrequent occurrences. So, this game will basically come down to how Michigan responds in these situations.
*Hey BTN, if you haven't trademarked this yet then I hereby claim it. I'm pretty sure this is how copyright law works, right?
Special Teams
Simply put, Michigan needs: a) no costly derps from Gallon and b) a not terrible performance from Hagerup, especially since I get the feeling that Michigan will get off to a slow start again on offense.
From the Northwestern side, Mark is also a special teams dynamo. He's been okay on kicks, but on punts he has picked up two touchdowns in 10 returns, with an average of 25 yards per. Dear Michigan ST guys: lanes, get to them!
Oh, also, kicker Jeff Budzien is 11/12 on the year with a long of 44, in addition to being perfect on extra points. He's a dependable guy who should be able to chip in some points when Northwestern drives stall.
Predictions of Negligible Worth
Gardner's performance last week was undoubtedly a jolt of confidence for the jittery post-Denard injury Michigan fan. Yes, it was just Minnesota, but Gardner looked far more capable than he has at any point in his career; I truly believe all the talk that his time at receiver helped him last week.
Defensively, I just see a fairly one-dimensional--albeit talented and dangerous--Northwestern offense, and Greg Mattison has dreams about those sorts of things. Colter and Mark are good enough that they will find their way onto the second level from time to time, but I don't believe that this is the week that Michigan starts giving up multiple big plays.
This will come down to Jake Ryan maintaining his level of play to date and Michigan's corners, namely J.T. Floyd, bringing the appropriate support on edge runs and screens. If all goes according to plan, Northwestern will be forced to execute several grinding drives; if this happens, I'm willing to bet that at least one or two of those ends in a field goal or no points at all.
To be quite honest, I'm not sweating the whole "will he or won't he play" re: Denard. If he plays, everything will be fine and dandy and Michigan will actually have a running game. If Devin is in, assuming last week wasn't a mirage, Michigan should be more than fine. He has the arm to test Northwestern's corners deep, and he should be able to pick up some more yardage on the ground a la last week when the first couple of reads aren't there.
Northwestern will keep it close throughout. This might be the strongest defensive front seven the 'Cats have fielded in some time, and Michigan's interior OL hasn't shown the ability to dominate anybody on a consistent basis all year, let alone against solid to pretty good fronts.
Colter can make some plays through the air, but I don't know that Northwestern will really try all that much. Barring a complete defensive implosion, Michigan should hold Northwestern to around 20 points, give or take. I'm thinking that we get an encore performance of last week's game: rough beginning, triumphant middle, medals being handed out on Endor in the end.
Brief note: I will attempt ("attempt" being the key word) to have these preview posts up on Friday each week around lunchtime. The grad school thing may prevent that from happening, but we'll see how it goes. I should be good to go for about the first month...after that, things might get a little dicier. The Exposition
I spent my high school years in Alabama, coinciding exactly with the Mike Shula era. This was a few months after the Mike Price fiasco, not to mention Dennis Franchione's controversial departure for Texas A&M a few months before that. Add NCAA sanctions to the mix and a new head coach in Shula* (who had been a career NFL guy to that point, and never a head coach), and you could say that things were not turning up Milhouse.
At the same time, my high school years as a Michigan fan were about as good as you could ask of your program within a 4-year window. John Navarre went out and won a Big Ten championship in 2003 to spite his squawking detractors, and Chad Henne rode piggybacked on Braylon Edwards's back in 2004 en route to another one. The 2005 season, "The Year of Infinite Pain", according to Brian, was a paper cut compared to the total system breakdown that was the Rich Rodriguez era. My final season as a high schooler was the 2006 season, of which I don't need to tell you about.
Michigan going 0-4 in its bowl games during that time put a bit of a damper on things, but it was an all around great time to be a Michigan fan, especially one living in Alabama. In retrospect, it seems almost unthinkable for Alabama to have a 4-win season and two 6-win seasons in a 4-year span, but it happened between 2003 and 2006.
Enter Nick Saban, and that's enough of that whole losing and not being mistake-free cybernetic organisms thing. Say what you will about oversigning, but there is no denying that Saban is one of the best defensive minds in the game. In five seasons, Saban has compiled a 55-12 record; half of those losses came in his first season. Simply put, Alabama has been the best team in the country since Saban arrived in Tuscaloosa.
Needless to say, in nine years, a whole lot has changed; this isn't 2003, anymore.
*Amusingly, he is now the QB coach for the Carolina Panthers, coaching one Cam Newton. Life has a funny way of working out sometimes.
Michigan Offense vs. Alabama Defense A note: I started writing this on Tuesday. I am assuming that Toussaint is not going to play, for what it's worth. The same goes for Frank Clark.
It's hard to decide which Michigan unit has a better chance of getting anything done in this game. As I detailed throughout the summer, this Alabama team is about as talented and athletic as you would expect. So, what's the catch? There is a catch, right?
Maybe, maybe not. Ask any Alabama fan about their defense and they will talk to you about RELOADING and 5-star recruits everywhere and how this ain't 2010 (when Alabama had to replace a similar amount of premium defensive talent and then went on to have a "disappointing" 3-loss season). Well, most of it is in fact true. Alabama is talented, and at certain positions, they will rotate guys in and out with relative ease.
However, some Alabama fans are just being unreasonable. I'm sorry. That's not to say that Alabama's defense won't be good (keep in mind that that 2010 defense was still very good) because they absolutely will, or that a defense that is a cut or two below last year's wouldn't still hold Michigan to a relatively low point total.
The simple fact is, no, Alabama fans, your defense will not be as good as last year's was. Then again, last year's defense was historically good, not just good in the context of the 2011 season. Some slippage can be reasonably expected, especially when replacing 7 defensive starters. Yes, I do understand that some of the players replacing these guys have seen some game action (for example, starting corner Dee Milliner), but not all of these guys have gotten meaningful playing time. Adrian Hubbard at SLB, Quinton Dial (was a rotational type guy last year that will be a half-starter along with Ed Stinson at one end position), Deion Belue is a JUCO guy in his first season in Tuscaloosa and a starting corner, Vinnie Sunseri is a true sophomore who did play some last season but has enormous shoes to fill at strong safety, etc.
As you probably know by know, Nick Saban is an evil genius whose defenses run with Gradgrindian efficiency; it's going to be "hard times"** for Michigan indeed if the OL consistently lets rushers through en route to clean shots on Denard. That cannot happen, especially early on in the contest. Nick Saban's Alabama defenses are known for their base 3-4, but Alabama is a fairly "multiple" team. The will also likely throw the 4-3 at us, the 5-2 (with two "Jack"*** linebackers on the field at once), and passing downs have their own special wrinkles for nickle packages. Alabama will throw a lot of different things, and Borges has ostensibly does his homework on all of them. That said, being ready to combat and execute these defensive looks is another battle entirely. FWIW, here's a useful video of Saban explaining the basis for the "Star" and "Money" positions in Alabama's nickel and dime looks.
Some Crimson Tide defenders to focus on at each level of the defense: 6'4'' 320lb. seniorNG Jesse Williams (he's a position switcher moving over from end, although he did play nose in his JUCO days), 6'2'' 232 lb. junior CJ Mosley at ILB (he's not nominally a starter but he basically is based on how much he will actually play, especially against a spread spread-ish team like Michigan), and 6'0'' 215 sophomore strong saftey Vinnie Sunseri (son of a coach!). Mosley in particular is a player to pay attention to when he's on the field. He's not technically a starter, but he's probably Alabama's best linebacker, and he will be on the field in passing situations. He's also Alabama's fastest backer, so expect him to do a lot of this when Denard does dump it off:
Don't get me wrong, I love Vincent Smith, but I'm not sure he will be able to shake Mosley on the edge. However, I think a guy like Justice Hayes could do some damage in this capacity, although that is admittedly based purely on recruiting hype at this point.
If Michigan (i.e. Barnum+Omameh/Mealer) cannot contain the Balrog that is Jesse Williams from getting into the backfield or render him irrelevant by attacking the edges and taking our chances there, it's going to be a long, long day. Remember this picture?
With the pressure that Alabama is sure to bring with the Jack linebacker, bringing Sunseri down into the box, and all other sorts of defensive sorcery, things could very well look like the picture above. I think Denard would agree with me: that is not something we want to happen. Alabama has spent the last few weeks talking about how they're coming for Denard, and why wouldn't they? Unless propelled by magic (4th quarter of the ND game, the entire VT game), if you key on Denard and force him to pass, things probably get ugly. Obviously, that is easier said than done, since not every team has the pure talent to force Michigan's hand in that way. Alabama, like Michigan State, certainly does.
Analogy time! Hoke:defensive line coaching::Nick Saban:defensive backs. Saban and DC Kirby Smart have supreme confidence in their DBs, which is not unreasonable given the talent they have at their disposal and the fact that Saban might be the best and most meticulous teacher of DB technique in the country. It's his special pet project amongst all other coaching duties, much like the DL is to Hoke.
A perfect example of this confidence is the Cover 1 Robber defense, which Chris Brown of Smart Football discussed in his book released earlier this summer (and summarized excellently by this MGoBlog diary). Alabama will put its corners in man coverage with regularity, and this decision is only strengthened by the fact that Michigan's top two receivers are Roy Roundtree and Jeremy Gallon. No offense to either player, but I imagine that neither exactly strikes fear in Saban's robot ersatz heart.
Want to see the Cover 1 Robber in action? You have seen it before, and I apologize in advance for this. If you'll remember, I recently linked to this excellent post from The Only Colors on the now infamous Double A-Gap blitz. Therein, a discussion of one variant, the Cover 1 Robber, was explained in detail. Guess which play that was:
As surprisingly complicated and variegated as that particular blitz is, you can be sure that Alabama has many like this one lined up and ready to go. Denard et al need to have their hot route cues down pat, or the above will very likely occur at some point.
I don't think that Michigan will have much success attacking the middle with the ground game...at least early on. Alabama stuffed everyone, even LSU's paleolithic but effective power running game, and I think that we should expect different results. I don't think that Borges is foolish enough to do this, but if Michigan lines up in the I and attempts to run any sort of traditional power run, you can bet that thousands of Michigan fans will all be throwing up their hands in unison. Unless we're in a short yardage or goal line situation, Michigan cannot afford to waste precious plays by plugging away up the middle. This isn't the 1990s: lightning bolts will not rain down on your head if you don't run to set up the pass.
The problem with that is Michigan has Denard Robinson, who, aside from being a transcendent runner with a fantastic smile, has had some basic mechanical issues in the passing game, not mention trouble reading defenses and reacting to pressure. All of these things do sound like a recipe for disaster against a defense like Alabama's, but we have to assume that Denard has improved throughout the offseason. Playing like he did against Nebraska and Ohio State would be a start, but that's all it would be. The same gaping holes that were there against the Huskers and Buckeyes likely won't be there against Alabama, and if they are they will be closing up a little more quickly.
So, what are the options? Really, there aren't many that don't involve pinpoint execution and, quite frankly, not getting blown back at the point of attack. If either happen, it's over. An UTL-esque miracle is just not going to happen against this team.
**ELITIST REFERENCES PAWLLLL
***FYI, the JLB is basically the pass-rushing linebacker; last year, it was Courtney Upshaw. Michigan Defense vs. Alabama Offense
We've had a couple relatively surprising moves on the defensive side of the ball come to light in the last week. First, Quinton Washington will be playing at the nose position and starting. Next to him is William Campbell, who was going to be play nose until the coaches eventually came to the realization that Black at the 3-tech just wasn't going to work. As such, BWC to the 3-tech and Black back to WDE it is. We won't truly know what the two-deep is actually like until the games begin, but, for now, Black's move is one more obstacle between Mario Ojemudia having to take the field against an Alabama team with a Brobdingnagian offensive line.
Speaking of the offensive line: they are huge. I previewed this position group way back in early April, and not much has changed (actually, nothing has). If you didn't already know, 2011 All-American LT Barrett Jones made the move to center to make room for Cyrus Kouandjio, which speaks to how highly the coaches think of the latter. This is the second move that Jones has mode (he was once a guard), so while position switches are often uncomfortable propositions, Jones has always been lauded as a smart guy and should be more than alright.
Alabama has a bevy of talented tailbacks and wide receivers. Like the secondary and linebackers, experience is the primary issue with most of these guys, although they are by no means completely green. None of these guys are Trent Richardson or Julio Jones, but they might not need to be if the ground game has worn Michigan down as I'm sure Alabama is intending to do.
You probably know about Eddie Lacy by now. He was Alabama's #3 in 2010, Richardson's backup last season, and should be the feature back this season. A pesky injury kept him out of most of spring ball, IIRC (including the A-Day scrimmage), and has still seemed to be banged up as recently as the last week or two. I linked to a video of him doing a short drill with a fairly significant amount of tape on his ankle, which may or may not mean anything.
Saban has used the words "day-to-day", and the fact that he'd be "ready to go in 5 or 6 days"...he said this on August 18th. The more time that passes, the more I get the feeling that he won't be 100% on 9/1. If that is the case, our old friend RS freshman Dee Hart and true freshman TJ Yeldon become the next guys in line. Jalston Fowler, Alabama's #3 last year and the Tide's top mooseback, appears to have made the move to H-back, where walk-on Kelly Johnson has won the starting role in what can be considered the shocker of fall camp (it hasn't been that exciting of a fall camp). Johnson has big shoes to fill, as the H-back is a very important player in Alabama's offense, which should basically stay the same despite the hiring of former Washington OC Doug Nussmeier (last year's OC, Jim McElwain, departed for the Colorado State head coaching job). Brad Smelley was a big time target for McCarron last season on key third downs (he was Alabama's second-most productive receiver in 2011). It's unreasonable to expect Johnson to be as good as Smelley, but he did win the starting nod, so he must be doing something right.
At receiver, Alabama appears to be rolling with 6'0'' 185 sophomore DeAndrew White and 6'2'' 195 junior Kevin Norwood at the "X" and "Z" positions, with 5'11'' 185 sophomore Christion Jones taking the "H" receiver position (i.e. the slot). I was somewhat surprised to see White win the starting over Kenny Bell, Alabama's leading returning receiver, but I'm not sure that it matters much. Bell is a physical, athletic receiver, and McCarron looked to him downfield on occasion last year. AJ and Bell hooked up for a 39-yard and 41-yard TD against Tennessee and Auburn (a flea flicker, FWIW) respectively. Fast forward to 0:35 in the video below to see this in action.
Anywho, Alabama has more, but to continue to name them would be overkill. Here's the thing. Alabama's offense is a little more complicated than it may seem, but in the end this game will be all about those things that make us roll our eyes when guys like Merill Hoge talk about them: toughness, resilience, the ability to bend but not break, completely unironic GRIT. If Michigan is going to get this done, it probably won't be pretty. Alabama will pick up yards on the ground and, inevitably, through the air when Mattison is forced to bring increasingly crazier and riskier blitzes. However, if Michigan can hunker down once Alabama cross the M's 30, not unlike the Sugar Bowl, then I'm saying there's a chance.
I mentioned this back when I took a look at Alabama's quarterbacks and I'll say it again: McCarron is a better player than many Michigan fans are probably giving him credit for. He's a solid player, and yeah, sure, having that team around him certainly helps. However, all you need to do to realize that being a QB for such a team is not so easy is to recall LSU's 2011 season. The quarterbacking during the national title game was so rough that folks with no stake in the result of the game (me, for example) began to plead all over the Internet for Les Miles to PUT IN THE OTHER GUY, a guy who is often known as Jarrett "Pick 6" Lee.
I mentioned that moving QW to nose and Black back to WDE was kind of like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic, but the more thought I give this configuration, the more I like it. That is 600+ pounds (607 according to MGoBlog's Fall Roster Overanalysis) of human being there in the middle. Will it be enough against an interior trio of Chance Warmack, Barrett Jones, and Anthony Steen? Maybe not, but I like Michigan's chances much better with QW than Black.
As for the ends, there was once a point when I was fairly optimistic about this group. Now, not so much. I'm having visions in my head of Beyer and Roh getting handled by Fluker and Kouandjio in the ground game and getting stonewalled in the pass rush, and who knows what kind of player Black will be after adding weight and spending so much practice time on the inside. At this point, any sort of pass rush that Michigan can get from the these guys is gravy, which is a pretty ominous thing to have to say.
With that said, things are rosier in the back 7 for Michigan. As far as tight ends go, Michael Williams is Alabama's starter. He doesn't seem to be anything extraordinary, but he is by no means a liability or anything. He was a red zone target against Penn State last season (and also the recipient of a fake field goal TD pass that Ace linked to here).
Otherwise, I feel pretty confident that Michigan's 'backers will match up in coverage. The only catch is the Williams is 6'6'' and a biscuit under 270. OF COURSE HE IS. When Alabama has Williams and an H-back in the game, odds are you are about to get smashed in the face. He's a blocker and possible red zone guy...basically, what we all hope AJ Williams will one day become.
I feel confident enough in Michigan's safeties not giving up the dreaded big play for the first half or so. But...after that, especially if Alabama has racked up enough yardage that plays like the above dart to Bell can happen? That is the moment that the game is over.
What Needs to Happen, Fergodsakes
On defense:
Say it with me now: bend but don't break.I'm sure Mattison has some tricks up his sleeve, but tricks can only do so much when the other team is simply bigger and faster. Michigan is not going to win the stat sheet battle. If Mattison's defense gives up 500 yards and manages to hold Alabama under 31, there is hope. Make them kick field goals (see: 2011 LSU game, Part 1).
Countess and Floyd. Please be in pre-OSU/VT form. Alabama has quite a few talented players at receiver, but I'm not really convinced that there is a star among them (certainly not a Julio type). This goes without saying, but given the probably lack of a front four pass rush, JT and Blake will be on an island more fairly often. The good news is that, after a year of Mattison's diabolical blitzes and aggressiveness verging on over-aggressiveness, they're probably up to the challenge.
Quinton and William. To put it simply, if these two look like they're on skates, there is simply no hope. Again, you can only scheme and mitigate your weaknesses so much. As Saturday approaches, I've become increasingly confident that they'll be able to hold up at least adequately; whether the linebackers can shed Warmack and Steen and tackle the ball carrier--whether an all-around talent like Lacy or a darty sort like Hart--is another story entirely. For the record, I'm fairly confident that Demens, Morgan, and Ryan will do a decent job. Jake Ryan, after QW and BWC, might be the most important player on Michigan's entire team in this game.
On offense:
No turnovers please. If Michigan turns the ball over, chances are a win is not happening. The margin for error is razor thin.
Get the passing game going early. My nightmare is that Michigan comes out, plugs away on the ground, fails miserably and then sees everything spiral out of control as Michigan tries to pass its way back in the game with a guy like Denard. The slant will be there, and Borges will call upon that old standby, the throwback screen to Gallon to start pushing the Alabama linebackers and safeties away from the LOS. Naturally, if that happens, that's where Denard goes to work. If there's 9 in the box, forget about it
Devin Gardner. The wild card-iest wild card who ever wild card'd. If he is a legitimate force at receiver, that could change everything. To be quite honest, after Milliner, the rest of Alabama's corners don't impress me as much as Alabama's new linebackers do. Also, I need to see Sunseri and Clinton-Dix in action before I deem them the second coming of Ronnie Lott. I think that Michigan might get some mileage out of the so called "QB Oh Noes" play, as Brian calls it, what with Sunseri looking to be an involved and aggressive player in the run game. Borges needs to scheme against that position.
Attack the edge, quickly. Yes, SEC speed and all that, but I think that it's just about a waste of time to try (past a token effort) to develop a between-the-tackles running game, at least in the first quarter or so. Michigan needs to be creative in its ground game, kind of like it was against Ohio State last November. Get numbers going to the edges and let's see how those pseudo-newbies at linebacker handle Denard. WR end arounds. Denard jet sweeps.
Trick plays. Let's see 'em. Seriously, Al. 2008 Capital One Bowl Redux, this needs to be.
Predictions of Negligible Worth
Making these sorts of predictions, especially for a game like this, is a torturous thing. A prediction is not really one data point that you pluck out of thin air. It's a deliberate whittling down of all results from a giant marble slab of possibility. My point: could I see everything going perfectly, Alabama having a bad day, and Michigan eeking out an incredibly ugly yet satisfying Sugar Bowl-esque win? Yes, I honestly can. Alabama is talented, and it speaks to the state of things that Michigan is such an underdog in spite of all the big name players that Alabama lost. In two or three years, this game will be an even contest going in, but we're not quite there yet. Still, this is a good Michigan team, and not one that should be underestimated.
With that said, too many things have to go well for Michigan to win this game. Michigan will probably need to have a turnover margin of at least +2. How likely is this? If this game is played ten times, Michigan probably has everything fall into place maybe once. That's what it is. We're banking on that one, that unlikely scenario, the "Jareth Glanda catching a pass" of games.
As much as it pains me to say it, I just can't make that prediction. To be able to stick it to the reigning national champs, the team that I had to spend four years hearing about as a high schooler, would be something beyond tremendous, if such a superlative even existed.
In the end, Michigan keeps it close for the first half, but without Toussaint, Michigan just won't have enough juice to keep enough drives going to make it a game. Even with Fitz, I'm not sure that Michigan has enough. It won't be pretty, but it won't be an outright blowout. At the same time, I don't think it will necessarily be "close." Michigan is a 13.5 point underdog, which, sadly, is just about right.
Just wrapping up some loose ends here before the college football season starts...ON THURSDAY. I can hardly believe it either.
Goodbye, offseason.
Captains. They are, as expected, Denard Robinson and Jordan Kovacs. As Michigan's most prominent senior warrior football poets, you can expect a lot about them in this space throughout the coming months.
Also, this goes without saying but I'll say it anyway: Jordan Kovacs is Rudy...if Rudy was actually good and had an NFL future. Seriously. The guy didn't make the team in 2008 due to a knee injury and then turned around and started in '09. The rest, as they say, is history. Competence is good. /Henne'd Deciding time. This is just about the time when schools are announcing who their starter at QB will be going into the coming season. Some guys won by default, some after a long and arduous battle throughout the spring, summer, and fall.
The notable winners: Kiehl Frazier (Auburn), Josh Nunes (Stanford), Everret Golson (Notre Dame), David Ash (Texas), and Joe Southwick (Boise State), Marcus Mariota (Oregon). So, there you go. Arm yourselves with this arsenal of useless information (which I guess basically defines sports fandom as a whole, but whatever). Nunes and Southwick have the unenviable task of replacing Andrew Luck and Kellen Moore*, whereas the other three guys are trying to be better (Ash, Frazier) or better than the guy that started last year (Golson).
*Mariota has to replace a productive, successful college QB in Darron Thomas, but, as I mentioned in the Pac 12 preview, he's just the next cog in the Oregon offensive machine. At this point, I'm convinced that Chip Kelly could coach an orange with pencils for appendages to run for 100+ and pass for 250+ against your team.
Speaking of Golson. You've probably heard this already, but ND has suspended tailback Cierre Wood for a minimum of two games...that's not a good thing if your name is Everett Golson. The Irish start the season in Dublin (not the one in Ohio) against Navy. I'm not quite ready to sound the upset alert siren here, but a young QB without his top tailback, no Michael Floyd (plus, Theo Riddick is now a running back), doesn't sound like a promising thing for the ND offense. Whereas Rees managed to move the ball last season only to eventually turn it over, ND might find it difficult to move the ball at all with Golson.
Basically, you can expect approximately 842 passes thrown in Tyler Eifert's direction against Navy.
Meanwhile, in Knoxville. Also on the suspension front, Tennessee had suspended star wideout Da'Rick Rogers (he has since transferred to Tennessee Tech), which significantly puts a dent in my increasingly positive (for some reason) feelings about the Vols' 2012 team. This is a tough blow for Tennessee, especially after getting their other star receiver Justin Hunter back from injury (he missed most of the 2011 season).
From where I stand, Tennessee looks like a team with a solid but not spectacular defense that is moving to the 3-4 and an offense with a gunslinger of a QB and a not very established running game. Unless Bray is ultra-efficient--which is unlikely given that's he's going to be throwing it as if UT had somehow relocated to the Pacific coast--then seven wins might be as far as UT can go in Dooley's third season. Is that enough? I'm honestly not sure.
Ah, there's the beef. So things had been progressing fairly normally this fall; that is, until some things about the defensive line started to leak out of fall camp. By this I am mostly referring to #76 Quinton Washington, former O-lineman, starting on the DL next to BWC.
If the Black-QW-BWC-Roh lineup is the one that gets rolled out to start, that pretty much confirms the sneaking suspicion that the coaches aren't that comfortable with Black's ability to hold up on the inside, even with the weight he's added (up to 276 from 260, as of this post). Either that, or they're attempting to compensate for Clark's suspension by slotting Black back at his original position (WDE), hopefully precluding the need to play Ojemudia at all against Alabama, which I think would mostly end in disaster. Washington is pretty big, and if there was a game to roll with QW and Campbell in the middle, it's against Alabama. Now, being big doesn't mean that you can hold up (see: "Will Campbell's first three seasons at Michigan"), but the coaching staff is in a bit of a bind. Sadly, these sorts of moves when you're about to face an offensive line like Alabama's is kind of like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.
Also. Devin Gardner: is the transformation to wideout complete? It certainly seems that way based on recent rumblings. Two things:
Whatever arcane magical rituals you've been performing in order to keep Denard healthy, DOUBLE DOWN on them right now and all the way through early January. No offense to Russell Bellomy, but if he is the QB2 in earnest, then
At this point, however, I've come to terms with the fact that wide receiver might end up being Devin Gardner's calling. For whatever reason, his mechanics and overall QB "it having-ness" hasn't progressed as expected, and that's unfortunate but far from presages the end of the world or DG's career. We all know he can be an exceptional talent [insert that camp highlight tape where he does his best Marquise Walker impression here], but it's one thing to be a guy running out there for the occasional snap and being a starting guy. Either way, the coaches have done a great job generally keeping DG's role under wraps..I can guarantee that Saban is thinking about this.
See, look: interesting football things to talk about. Football must be near. *Checks calendar* WOOOO!
More? Florida's 2012 QB situation is going to mirror 1998/99 Michigan's...if Brady and Henson were both not very good. Check the "ETC" section...Spencer with a zinger regarding UofM research and Greg Robinson.
Over at Maize n Brew, I wrote a thing about Nathan Scheelhaase last week to end Illinois preview week. Poor man's Denard or rich man's Terrance Owens? Why am I even asking this question?
I also wrote way too many words about the state of Northwestern football; this can be found here.
Lastly, I put in a few words on freshman safety Jarrod Wilson, whose CV currently reads: "Is a safety; talented, motivated, self-starter. Proficient in MS Word and Excel. Social media expert. Trucked by Thomas Rawls one time, but whatever."
In other news, the BWC incident definitely does not require a full post--or even its own bullet point--so this sums up my reaction about as well as any number of words could:
A Preface: The Spring Game is meant to be a glorified practice. Nothing that happened in Michigan's spring game yesterday should be used to predict anything that might happen in the fall. It is an event that's simply meant to be a fun way for fans to watch some pseudo-footbaw in April. That's it. As such, all of the following are simply observations on what happened on Saturday, in a vacuum.
On the brightness of the helmet numbers: I am about to give you all a history lesson, free of charge. Many grade school teachers will tell you that, back in the day, as the Roman Empire was collapsing in the west, that it was all the the product of multiple centuries' worth of societal, political, and economic strife, not to mention the incessant waves of Germanic invasions that eventually brought the empire to its knees in the officially accepted year of collapse, AD 476. Do you want to the real reason for the empire's collapse? The by and large obscure Roman emperor Davidus Brandanius issued an edict that called for "the inscription of excessively shiny numbers and #GOROME on each Roman soldier's helmet." This was of course done in order to spread the brand of Rome far and wide, as conquered peoples would see this inscriptions and cease to resist the Roman intrusions on their land. I mean, who wouldn't want to engage in and be a part of such a thing? Exactly. Unfortunately, in later battles, the sun would reflect upon these brightly painted inscriptions, reflecting sunlight off of the helmets and into each soldier's eyes, leading to massive breakdowns in the phalanx formation, and, ultimately, defeat in battle and general ownage at the hands of the various Germanic invaders. We would do well to learn from the mistakes of the past.
Okay, that was stupid. Tl;dr--who cares. Moving on!
Devin Gardner: I guess you can't really start anywhere else. I spent last season defending Denard against the "play Devin" people and it looks like I'll spend this offseason defending Devin against the "move him to wide receiver" folks. For the record, I do think he should absolutely get on the field as a receiver if he proves to be up to it, but if Hoke says he's the QB2 then that's enough for me.
A couple errant throws shouldn't be enough to freak people out, particularly since said people are probably the same ones who were calling for Devin to take over last year because of his passing ability. Remember, these guys haven't played in front of large numbers of people since January, and it's not like Devin has all that much game experience anyway.
I understand the fact that, being a rising junior, many are expecting "more" from Devin, but it doesn't work out that way all the time. The INT wasn't great but it was just a solid break on the ball by Countess; Devin wasn't locked onto Jeremy Jackson, Navarre-style. Jackson also could have done a better job of understanding where Countess was and working his way back to the ball, but Gardner needed to either get the ball out a second earlier or he shouldn't have thrown it at all. You live and learn. I believe Denard when he says that this outing was not indicative of how Devin has performed in practice.
He short-hopped one and then awkwardly shotputted a checkdown but looked much more comfortable looking downfield, where he completed an intermediate pass down the middle of the field to Jeremy Gallon (the pass was a little behind Gallon, but good enough to be completed). His footwork and mechanics weren't great on this day, but you have to figure that general rust and/or nervousness played somewhat of a factor. In short, better to get these sorts of things worked out now than in September.
On the positive side, Gardner looked as athletic as ever when the pass wasn't there. Of course, it's easy to run when you know you're not about to get thumped. However, it is nice to know that if Denard has to step out for a play or two, we can bring in a supremely athletic 6'4'' guy at quarterback.
Blake Countess getting some run with the offense...wait, what?
Russell Bellomy: On a related note, Bellomy looked like he could be a capable option down the road (as much as one can say such a thing after watching a spring scrimmage). He left that pass to Jerald Robinson, forcing him to go to his knees to catch it, but overall it's difficult to make any sweeping generalizations about arm strength given the nature of the passes he was throwing. Bellomy does look the part of the ideal Borges quarterback, however, and with another year of seasoning and some badly needed time in the weight room, I wouldn't be surprised to see him challenge for playing time next year and the year after (and yes, I am figuring Shane Morris's arrival into that outlook).
Wide receivers: It wasn't an impressive day for the receivers, but, again, general spring game caveat goes here. There was really no effort to stretch the field, and let's not forget that Michigan actually has competent to pretty good players in the secondary these days. It's difficult to make a real assessment here because I was watching on TV, but it's unclear for me whether or not the wideouts were simply not getting open or if Devin was hesitant to hit them, particularly after the INT. Whatever the case may be, I think it's fairly obvious that we need Jerald Robinson to step up or we're going to be hoping that Darboh or Chesson fill the big WR role when they get to Ann Arbor in the fall. He definitely looks the part but didn't seem to do much on Saturday (2 rec., 9 yards).
Desmond Morgan injury: Let's hope that it isn't anything serious, because that would be an awful loss even if we're talking about him simply missing some summer conditioning/player practices. I didn't catch this live, but apparently this is what knocked him out. That's what you like to see from your tailbacks, and Fitz will definitely need to do that a few times against Alabama's 3-4 outside backers if Michigan wants to keep Denard in one piece.
Hawthorne and Jones: Other than sounding like a law firm, these two had a productive day. Sure, they were up against walk-ons and backups most of the time, but they are experienced players that can fill in if injuries strike (knock on wood). This, folks, is what elite teams call "depth." Depth, meet Michigan football, Michigan football, meet depth. FWIW, the same positive depth-related sentiments apply for the secondary and guys like Courtney Avery, Raymon Taylor, and Terrence Talbott. Hawthorne's hit on Justice Hayes was the speedy, slashing sort of play that we've seen Hawthorne make before, namely early on in the 2011 season (e.g. the Notre Dame game).
Denard: A short day, obviously, but he did make a couple of crisp completions, first on the slant to Gallon and second on a rollout to Roundtree near the right sideline. These may seem like routine plays, but they really haven't been for Denard. If he can make these sorts of throws with consistency, the offense gets better by at least an order of magnitude. This will be especially true against Alabama, as I would imagine that Borges will look to move the pocket fairly often.
Thomas Rawls: A Bull Moose like Teddy Roosevelt. But, seriously, he looks like the stereotypical Big Ten mooseback. On the 21-yard TD run in the first half, Washington, Ash, and Heitzman were on the field for the defense. Rawls eluded a flailing tackle attempt from Heitzman in the hole, while Washington made a similar attempt but didn't come nearly as close as Heitzman did. On the second level, Rawls broke a tackle attempt from early enrollee Jarrod Wilson en route to daylight and the end zone. All in all a poor sequence of events for the defense, but it's nice to see Rawls hit the hole hard. It was very reminiscent of Kevin Grady's touchdown against Vanderbilt in 2006. No matter what Fred Jackson says, Grady is the obvious YMRMFSPA for Rawls.
Defensive line aka I'M SO GLAD OUR FIRST GAME IS AGAINST ALABAMA WOO: This might be the only unit to add to any Michigan fan's list of THINGS TO BE DEEPLY CONCERNED ABOUT, but that's only because these concerns existed the second after the careers of Mike Martin, Ryan van Bergen and Will Heininger ended. Hoke calling the interior of the defense "soft" is not a good sign, but is also standard motivational verbiage. I will say, however, that people should be careful when they try to parse Hoke's pressers, especially when he uses words like "soft" or "physical." Maybe it's just me, but it seems like Hoke uses these words as a catch-all for "bad" and "good" play. Of course, the interior needs to get better, but I'm not sure that any problems on Saturday were the result of guys like Campbell, Washington, Ash, Black, etc. just not playing hard enough or tough enough. In any case, minus the TD run from Rawls and some nice runs from Fitz, it's not like the interior was getting blown up with regularity. On the flip side, there wasn't much push up the middle or general pressure, but, you know...whatever. There's a long way to go until September 1st.
Chris Bryant: Is huge. Hoke emphasized that there's always competition for every position, which is typical coachspeak but you get the feeling that he means it more than a lot of coaches do when they say those sorts of things. Mealer and Omameh are ostensibly the starters at LG and RG if the season started today, but it seems that neither position is safe, which is a latter more worrisome vis-a-vis Omameh.
Toussaint: There's not much to say. No offense to Brandon Minor, but Toussaint is Michigan's first All-Big Ten type player since Hart. Fitz looked quick, agile, and showed a bit of power in finishing his runs, namely one play which ended with him essentially bowling over J.T. Floyd near the sideline. There are some question marks on this team, but one thing I'm fairly sure of: Fitz is about to have a monster year.
Well-executed inside zone for 10 (HT: mgovideo)
The Michigan Defense's Excellent Adventure: Given Jake Ryan's neck roll and several other players sporting the half jersey thing, Michigan's defense looked like it arrived at Michigan Stadium straight from the 1980s via some sort of time traveling phone booth. Whatever works, guys. If the defense can continue to play like those vintage Bo defenses from the 1980s then keep on keepin' on.
Philanthropy!: Spring game donations for Mott amounted to a whopping $161,080, and that is apparently before it will be matched by the Beam family. Well done everybody.
The first position group I'll take a look at will be, naturally, the Alabama offensive line. In a game between two schools like Alabama and Michigan, known for their Brobdingnagian lines and power running--minus the failed RR Interlude--could it be any other way? Of course not. While this game might not exactly mirror the 2000 Orange Bowl (i.e. Alexander vs. A-Train), in that the Michigan offense is decidedly not yet synced with the Tao of Power, we will see an offense/OL that Michigan hopes to become by 2014 or so.
Power off tackle: a preview
In this way, this matchup is somewhat of a double-edged sword, for Michigan fans. Although the Bama OL is about as terrifyingly huge a line anywhere outside of Madison, and will consequently pose problems for a Michigan DL lacking in depth and beef, it's hard not to watch that line play and not imagine a line featuring Kalis, Bryant, Bars, LTT, Dawson, etc. doing similar things down the line. With respect to the line play, the Alabama OL will be somewhat of a sneak peek into the future for Michigan fans and/or Darrell Funk enthusiasts.
The Starters
Although it is only spring, Bama's starting five is as close to set in stone as it could possibly be. From left to right, it looks as such:
Cyrus Kouandjio-Chance Warmack-Barrett Jones-Anthony Steen-DJ Fluker
As mentioned previously, the lone departure is C William Vlachos, a Rimington finalist last season. Every starter save Kouandjio has multiple seasons worth in starting experience; these guys have seen it all, of course winning two of the last three national championships while facing some of the most ornery front sevens in the country. The lone newbie is Cyrus Kouandjio, a rising true sophomore who appeared in all eight games until getting knocked out for the season in the Tennessee game with a knee injury. Kouandjio was a big time recruit, most known for committing to Auburn, not faxing in his LOI and then signing with Alabama a few days after NSD. He is the lone green starter, but, unfortunately, he does have a little experience to his name. Overall, however, the returning guys have 95 starts between them.
Let me reiterate: these guys are enormous. From left to right, this is what our front 7 will be looking at: 6'6'' 311, 6'3'' 320, 6'5'' 302, 6'3'' 303, 6'6'' 335. Forget about the defense, this is going to be the most dominant unit of the 2012 Alabama football team. This line is so mammoth that it can inspire headlines as ridiculous as "Is that big offensive line too big?" This sort of reminds me of NFL types wondering if a quarterback can be "too athletic" (re: RGIII), which, what are you talking about Merill Hoge. Fix your your tie knot and stop headbutting random people in the hallways of ESPN's Bristol HQ. It's uncouth.
Of course, the article linked above led some commenters to have flashbacks to the bowl loss against Utah. I don't think Alabama's line is the big but slow type, but if Michigan's front does have any advantage, it's with quick, somewhat undersized guys on the outside (Beyer, Clark, Roh, Ryan in passing situations) and on the inside with Jibreel Clark, who will hopefully have gained some weight by September but not lost his quickness.
These guys are big, experienced, and have won at the highest level while also paving the way for a Heisman finalist in the process. If these the aforementioned measureables don't shoot a little spark of concern up your spine, especially considering Michigan less than ideal situation on the interior of the defensive line, well, it should. That's not to say that we should run to the hills, but you can bet that Alabama won't waste a lot of time early in the game probing the edges; they're going right up the middle. Yes, this sort of line and this sort of stage lends itself to every football cliche in the book--pad level, point of attack, power football, etc.--but in this case it is actually warranted.
The Replacements
On the bright side, like us, Alabama's situation past the starting five doesn't seem exceedingly rosy, although it's always hard to tell in the spring. Sophomores Arie Kouandjio (yes, another one) and Chad Lindsay are both out of commission this spring due to injury, leaving redshirt sophomore RT Austin Shepherd and Kellen Williams, a redshirt junior guard/tackle type. Shepherd appeared in 7 games last year and Williams appeared in 5; however, none of said games were against marquee teams or not blowouts (you tell me under which category Tennessee falls).
Kouandjio was the first right tackle off the bench early in the season against Penn State before going down with a season-ending injury, and also was a 4-star prospect out of high school. If he can get healthy by the fall, he would make a solid reserve lineman. Likewise, Lindsay was a VHT guy on the interior. He enrolled early in 2010 but went on to redshirt, and his profile on the athletics website doesn't list any activity for 2011, so, who knows. Either way, he's out with a "head injury" right now, which I would assume would be cleared up in time for the season.
General Spring Minutiae/Encomium That Results in a "Bristling" Saban
As expected, Barrett Jones's move to center from left tackle (and previously starting at right guard in 2009 and 2010) won't progress without some sort of learning curve. He is by all accounts a smart guy, however, and most expect him to transition quite nicely. As of now, quoth Saban:
"Pleased with the progress he's made."
Translated to the parlance of normal human beings: He's getting better every day, and there's nothing better than seeing someone improve before your very eyes. It's not about the wins and losses or the number of trophies in the trophy case, it's about getting better, being able to end each day with the understanding that you did a little bit better than you did the day before. This is all very fun and enjoyable.
In the same article, Saban refers to Warmack--who should be at least Honorable Mention on the annual All-Last Name Team--as Alabama's "most consistent player" last year, which I'm not sure is in reference to just the OL or the team as a whole. Either way, it is strong praise, although it may be taken with a sizable grain of salt or two. Kouandjio is understandably described as a sort of work-in-progress, although being 6'6'' 311 probably helps to assuage any concerns that Alabama fans might have about him manning McCarron's blind side. Remember, Saban felt good enough to move Barrett Jones, a would-be surefire top 10 pick at LT, to center to make room for Mount Kouandjio (I'm going to assume this nickname has already been thought of but whatever).
Things To Think About/Watch Out For/ARE WE GOING TO DIE?
With Saban's comment about Warmack in mind, I would imagine that Alabama will probably be a left-handed team in the running game. I'd need to revisit the 2011 season to confirm this, but I would imagine that with Jones at LT in 2011, Alabama was inclined to run Richardson left more often than not. Despite Kouandjio being somewhat of a question mark due to his relative inexperience, run blocking is much easier to pick up for a young linemen, and allowing him to get out and attack would be a good way to get him some confidence when Alabama does choose to drop back. Thankfully, we have the defensive minds of Mattison and Hoke to figure out what tendencies may or may not exist, as one would imagine the offense will not change too much despite the Nussmeier taking over for McElwain.
Similarly, can Alabama's reserves get enough reps in the fall to be anywhere near ready to fill in in case an injury to one of the starters does occur? The backup situation seems as dicey as ours from an outsider's perspective, but I could be overstating it.
This is an obvious one, but Jones's transition to center is a position switch to watch. It's all relative, but Bama is stronger on the interior than the outside. Warmack and Steen are both very good and Barrett Jones is, well, Barrett Jones. If he makes the transition as seamlessly as many might be expecting, then Campbell, Ash, Washington, Pipkins, and the recently moved Jibreel Black will need to eat all the Wheaties and drink all the chocolate milk this summer. Football cliche forthcoming, but Saban knows that our interior isn't the strongest, and they will try to hit us in the mouth via the most efficient path: right up the middle.
Meaningless Grade That I Will End This With Anyway
This group is without a doubt an A as arguably Alabama's strongest position group. Depth concerns and Kouandjio's inexperience are the only things preventing this from getting the coveted Holdin' The Rope A+*. Alabama had the #1 rushing offense in the SEC last year, with the OL paving the way for 2,788 yards at 5.5 ypc. I see no reason why they shouldn't be #1 in the conference in 2012. Whether the backs can combine to be as productive as Richardson was in 2011 is another story entirely.
I waited outside the the entrance to one of the student sections with a Diet Coke and a pretzel about an hour before kickoff. As excited as I was for the game, I was surprisingly calm at that moment, and you might even say I wasn't thinking much at tall. The ice in the drink had already started to melt and the drink had become diluted and deprived of its cold, crisp pop. The pretzel was ridiculously salty but I wanted to have something, anything, in my stomach before getting to my seat. The air was heavy but the sun was beginning to go away. It was probably 7:10, 7:15 at that moment. I waited and waited with bated breath for the person who was going to assist me in Operation Get Into The Student Section, which, I'm assuming, everybody has executed at one point or another. I started to get nervous that it wouldn't work out and I'd be stuck sitting with a bunch of random old people in Section 38.
As I stood there chasing the entirely too salty sting of the pretzel with the warm diluted Coke, a lady walked up to me and asked me if I could take her picture. I said sure, and I reached out for her phone while giving her the standard "what button do I push" motion. She pointed it out and then her phone turned off or something so I had to go back to her so she could put her password in to unlock it. As I pulled back again, in my peripheral vision (which, as you will see, shouldn't have been too peripheral at all), I saw something tremendous. That's right. Lloyd Carr. Of course Lloyd Carr was standing right there in front of me, the guy whose tenure as Michigan's head football coach caused me to feel the following emotions in various mixtures and a number of different sequential manifestations between 1995 and 2007: sadness, happiness, elation, frustration, disillusionment, pride, respect, depression, hope, grief, dissatisfaction, anger, admiration, nostalgia, and a number of slight variants of all of the aforementioned and an additional list of emotions and pseudo-worldviews that is too long too list and probably a little bit ridiculous.
I realized that it was in fact Lloyd Carr, standing there smiling with those glasses on and that would have made him look like he should've been standing in front of a group of undergrads in an Angell Hall auditorium, lecturing them about Kipling. The wrinkles in his forehead were there still, as prominent as ever, as if they had been etched into his being forever, a facial feature that, accompanied with his own special brand of communicating with everyone, became intertwined. Bo chewed his gum violently and talked about accountability, chewing so hard that it seemed like he wouldn't to crush it out of this world as if to prove the pure candor and viability of his ideology. Lloyd talked about tremendous things, and his forehead was always the same, furrowed and divided into little segments that seemed to become more pronounced over time.
I'm thinking all these things now, but at that moment I completely froze. Of course I would meet Lloyd Carr while I was standing there like a complete idiot with a drink and a pretzel in my hand. I took the picture and handed it to the lady, seceretly jealous of her accomplishment because I knew I wouldn't ask Lloyd for a picture because I didn't want to stop him from going wherever it was he was going to go. I tried to think of something to say to him before he walked away; the last time I was this close to Lloyd was two years ago in Angell Hall between classes in the corridor where all the auditoriums were located, and I wasn't sure when the next time I'd be this close to a person like him would ever come again. It was crunch time, it was time for me to say something. Naturally, my brain fizzled and turned into a fried egg on a Blimpy burger. The entirety of a childhood and adolescence's worth of watching Michigan football--with Lloyd as its leader--flashed through my head. I was eight years old when Michigan beat Washington State and I remember it like it was yesterday. Everything, from the Pac Ten Road Games of Death to the 2003 Ohio State game to the 2006 Ohio State game to "What kind of stupid question is that?" to the Florida game flashed through my head in a single moment. I had to say something meaningful, and each tenth and hundredth of a second that passed made it less and less likely that I would say anything good enough to encapsulate everything that was running through my head at a million miles an hour.
The lady said thank you but I barely acknowledged it; Lloyd began to walk away and I said two words in the last moment that he was looking at me: Go Blue. He smiled and waved goodbye without saying anything and he didn't even have to. He walked away into the mass of people roaming about the concourse, by himself, as if he was just another guy and not the guy who won a national championship when I was eight. Like that he was gone, and I was left wondering if that had really happened, a moment so bizarrely real and coincidental--for instance, why did I choose to stand at that spot on the concourse, as opposed to any other where I would not have been approached by the woman and Lloyd?--that it's hyper-reality caused me to stop for a second and assess what had just happened. It had happened, but I wasn't sure if it was real.
And that is what Saturday night was like.
The Offense
So, that game. As unbelievable as the game was in every aspect, it brought several issues to the forefront that were concerns merely bubbling in the subconscious of Michigan fans everywhere but are now legitimate, out-in-the-open things to fret about. The first half was just plain frustrating to watch. Other than the 43-yard Hemingway touchdown, Michigan was going nowhere, and it's clear that Borges is still trying to feel out what he can and can't do with Denard. At this point, I think it's pretty obvious. There are certain throws that he definitely should not be making, but, at the same time, Denard still has some work to do on knowing when it's a good time to throw it and when it isn't. I realize that it may be anti-productive re: Denard's development as a pro-style/West Coast/non purely spread quarterback, but there were times where I just had to think that Denard should have taken off. At the same time, I like that we're two games in and Denard isn't broken, so that's good.
Other than Borges's playcalling, the offensive line was just manhandled b Notre Dame's front. I admittedly have not had a chance to watch the game again, and maybe ND was just loading up on the run, but we could get nothing going on the ground for quite some time...which brings me to my next concern: the running backs. At this point, I think Michigan's situation is basically going to constantly be like the 2004 season before the San Diego State game (which, if you'll remember, is when Mike Hart officially become The Man), unless Toussaint can stay healthy, which, good luck with that. I'm still not sure what his deal was, but I'm assuming he was injured, which is frustrating but expected, sadly. However, I will say this (and again, being in the stadium it was hard to notice a lot of things): after looking at the box score, I had no idea that the backs had so few carries. Not only that, but Hopkins getting the most out of any of the backs is kind of absurd. I've been really excited to see what Hopkins can do, especially going forward with his ostensible skills being the logical fit for the offense of the future that they are, but that hype train has completely derailed. Hopkins with 5 and Smith and Shaw with 1 and 2, respectively, is ridiculous and just won't do going forward. Not that Shaw is lighting the world on fire, and not that Smith can really realistically be expected to carry the ball more than a maybe 5-7 times a game, but Hopkins has shown absolutely nothing thus far, while also showcasing a bad case of fumbleitis. Luckily for him, Denard was there for the scoop and score, but it won't work out so nicely the next time that happens. Shaw and Smith can both do what he does (i.e., plow into the line with no vision), but at least they can either take one to the distance if the hole is there (Shaw) or make somebody miss (Smith). Hopkins's only "skill" right now is being big. In short, he needs to not get too many more meaningful snaps, and he definitely shouldn't lead the backs in carries in any game the rest of this season.
The running game is going to hurt us, because Denard is not going to go 11/24 for 338 yards (!) every game. We can only hope that Toussaint gets well soon. Obviously no game is a gimme these days, but we shouldn't need him for a few weeks. Let's hope he's ready by NU or it might have to be Denard left and Denard right once again.
As for the receivers, it was a pretty up and down affair. A few drops from Hemingway and Roundtree were plays that just need to be made, but the big plays of course made up for them in the end. To say that Denard and the wideouts have the ole underthrow the deep ball maneuver down pat would be an understatement. With only 11 receptions spread among seven different guys, it's hard to say anybody had a great game but they made the plays when it counted. Hemingway needs to continue to post up and get the ball going forward...the guy is just a master at that. Also, Jeremy Gallon looked like a player. I'm not so sure about the whole "throwing jump balls to a tiny guy" strategy, but who knows. As sad as I am for the apparent disappearance of Martavious Odoms from the face of the earth, it appears that Gallon passed him up on the depth chart for a reason.
The Defense
It's all relative, I guess. Just putting it out there, but Michael Floyd is pretty good. He consistently made out defensive backs look silly, as he was just bigger, faster, stronger, and better than any of them. Anybody who expected us to shut him down like we did last year was a little naive.
It's obvious that Michigan just can't create any sort of pressure without blitzing, and as I'm sure Brian's UFR will show, blitzing has its costs. On the bright side, the defense really hunkered down and did what it had to do in the second half. Oh the wonders of second half adjustments! Yes, Mr. Mattison, Greg Robinson is interested in what you have to say and would like to subscribe to your newsletter. Other than the complete breakdown on the final ND touchdown, it's hard to be anything but proud about how the defense showed up in the second half. Maybe the Irish are just not good at taking care of the ball (10 turnovers in two games), but you have to credit the defense some.
ND was killing us in yardage in the first half but in the end it didn't matter. Third down defense is of course still an enormous issue, as it has been for pretty much the last eleventy billion years of Michigan football. ND's 8/14 is not what you want to say the least, and that absolutely needs to improve, whether through pressure from the front four (paging Craig Roh) or more zone blitzing from the mind of Coach Mattison, but something needs to change. You have to give ND credit, though; despite the disappointing start to their season, I think you can safely say that that offensive is straight up good and knows how to move the ball. If they can figure out that whole things called "ball security" then they can still somewhat salvage this season. ND will continue to put up yards and points on a lot of people this season, so I don't feel too badly. Rees is plainly a better quarterback than Crist, so they'll at least have continuity at that position barring injury. Floyd is ridiculously good and Cierre Wood looked fast and shifty and quite honestly better than anything we've been trotting out there in the backfield. Even Jonas Gray looked good. ND has some serious talent on offense, and the way that Michigan was able to make some stops and collect some turnovers was encouraging. Baby steps.
Special Teams
Once again, this was nothing to write home about. Wile had a decent but not spectacular day, with five punts good for 38.6 per and a long of 47. Gibbons didn't attempt a field goal for the second week in a row, a thing which is both good and bad. I really hope he gets to kick a few in the coming weeks just for the sake of getting out there and getting some confidence. Eventually, we're going to need him to kick one, as much as we don't want to have to think about it.
The return game was just average again: Smith had five returns for an average of 19.6 per return (a long of 24), and Gallon returned one punt for 15 yards. On the flip side, Theo Riddick had a similar average on kick returns for ND (19.8 per) but he did have a long of 34. Michigan needs to continue to work on this; the defense is simply not good enough to try and stop people playing a short field.
Miscellaneous Minutiae
Here's where I talk about the event itself: unbelievable. I still can't talk. I've been to football games at Auburn, Ohio State, and Penn State, and the Big House was definitely as loud and probably louder than all three. It was surreal, and while there were still your fair share of students just standing there not making noise or doing much of anything on some plays, the student section was loud, as was the rest of the stadium. Home field advantage may or may not be overrated but you can't tell me that it didn't help and that it didn't affect ND (in addition to energizing the Wolverine players as well).
Music: I was once completely against piped-in music, but its pretty undeniable that its a net positive, if not a significant one. Other than Pop Evil, which needs to just go away forever, the piped-in music did its job. Sometimes you just have to make a compromise in an attempt to reach out to certain groups of fans (i.e., students, the casual fan, the not-old-and-grumpy adult fan, etc.), and quite frankly it was a huge success. As ubiquitous as Seven Nation Army has become, even the most die-hard traditionalist would have to admit that the moments after they played it the first time were just plain awesome. Obviously, we've got to watch what we play (Thunderstruck, Welcome to the Jungle, SNA, and maybe a couple of others, are on a short list of piped-in music that shouldn't make you upset) and when we play it going forward, but this Saturday was a perfect mix of band and piped-in music in my humble opinion. If we could just get rid of Pop Evil and Sweet Caroline then it would pretty much be perfect.
The pom-poms--also known as "shakers" in SEC country--were awesome and an aesthetic victory whether you were in the stadium or watching from home. To the people that complain about them, just watch any old Michigan games and you'll find Michigan fans with said pom-poms (for example, the 1998 Rose Bowl). This isn't a "new" thing, so Down In Front guy needs to chill out and decry something else.
Maybe I'm just imagining things, but the amplification of the band sounded a lot better than it did last season: am I imagining this? I don't even know anymore.
This should easily and without question happen once a year. Sure, night games in the future will never measure up this one, but other schools have them all the time...why not us? The fact that people have treated the concept of a night game as some ridiculous foreign concept that has come down to Earth from Mars or something has been fairly amusing. Traditions have to start somewhere, and I think this could be another one in an already extensive list of Michigan traditions.
Jake Ryan! Again, Jake Ryan showed some promise.
BOOM BRANDIN HAWTHORNE OUTTA NOWHERE. Man, Hawthorne looked like he could be a factor this year. He looked fast and aggressive and overall like a guy you'd want out there on defense that I could imagine being one of those mean, kind of undersized SEC linebackers. I'm excited to see what he does the rest of this season. I'm sure he made some mistakes, but this was an enormous step forward for him: going from an anonymous afterthought to a legitimate contender to start is no small feat.
Desmond Morgan is just not ready to be a starter let alone a frequent participant. Maybe in a year or two, but not now.
In perhaps one of the most encouraging developments of the game, Will Campbell showed some signs of improvement. I can't remember what point in the game it was but he absolutely demolished some poor lineman on one play, and was involved in a number of others as well. He's still not starter material, but if Campbell can become a reliable run-stopping rotation guy then that would be an enormous asset. I'm sure the way his career has gone has been infinitely more frustrating for him than every Michigan fan combined, so it was nice to see him dancing around and getting hyped up there in the fourth quarter. I am legitimately happy for him and I hope he can continue to improve.
Craig Roh...man. I'm not sure what the deal is, but he just has not been a factor at all this season. I honestly don't have anything to say because I have no idea what's going on; Jibreel Black has been a bigger factor than Roh this year.
It looks like 2009 Vincent Smith is officially back. He looked quick on that screen pass after a year or so of not looking like nearly the quick little guy he was pre-knee injury. I don't think he's a guy that should get too many carries on a regular basis, but he's still an invaluable part of this offense.
It was great to be back in the Big House again...to all the current students out there, enjoy it while it lasts.
I know I saw Odoms out there at least once...he came in only to go back out after Michigan called a timeout. I just feel terrible for the guy. I really hope we can get him involved at some point; despite Gallon's emergence, Odoms still brings a lot of things to the table.
Denard is the man. Seriously, has there ever been a more likable Michigan athlete? "THE GAME IS OVER!"
All I have to say is that I'm glad we've got Eastern this week.
Hello, Internet. I am Fouad Egbaria, a Michigan grad ('11) and recent graduate of the MSJ program at Northwestern's Medill School of Journalism. This is a blog that attempts to analyze the highs and lows of Michigan football and basketball; I'm just trying to capture the spirit of the thing. I will also write about general Big Ten news, as well as Chicago professional sports (from time to time).
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