Michigan-Kansas State, 11/23/12 (NIT Season Tip-Off) from HoldTheRope on Vimeo.
You heard 'em. Beat Ohio.
Showing posts with label WOOO. Show all posts
Showing posts with label WOOO. Show all posts
Saturday, November 24, 2012
Friday, August 31, 2012
Alabama Preview: Banking On The One
Brief note: I will attempt ("attempt" being the key word) to have these preview posts up on Friday each week around lunchtime. The grad school thing may prevent that from happening, but we'll see how it goes. I should be good to go for about the first month...after that, things might get a little dicier.
The Exposition
Time: 8 ET, ABC
Place: Cowboys Stadium--Arlington, TX
Line: Alabama -13.5
Mood: !!!!!!!+unceasing anxiety
I spent my high school years in Alabama, coinciding exactly with the Mike Shula era. This was a few months after the Mike Price fiasco, not to mention Dennis Franchione's controversial departure for Texas A&M a few months before that. Add NCAA sanctions to the mix and a new head coach in Shula* (who had been a career NFL guy to that point, and never a head coach), and you could say that things were not turning up Milhouse.
At the same time, my high school years as a Michigan fan were about as good as you could ask of your program within a 4-year window. John Navarre went out and won a Big Ten championship in 2003 to spite his squawking detractors, and Chad Henne rode piggybacked on Braylon Edwards's back in 2004 en route to another one. The 2005 season, "The Year of Infinite Pain", according to Brian, was a paper cut compared to the total system breakdown that was the Rich Rodriguez era. My final season as a high schooler was the 2006 season, of which I don't need to tell you about.
Michigan going 0-4 in its bowl games during that time put a bit of a damper on things, but it was an all around great time to be a Michigan fan, especially one living in Alabama. In retrospect, it seems almost unthinkable for Alabama to have a 4-win season and two 6-win seasons in a 4-year span, but it happened between 2003 and 2006.
Enter Nick Saban, and that's enough of that whole losing and not being mistake-free cybernetic organisms thing. Say what you will about oversigning, but there is no denying that Saban is one of the best defensive minds in the game. In five seasons, Saban has compiled a 55-12 record; half of those losses came in his first season. Simply put, Alabama has been the best team in the country since Saban arrived in Tuscaloosa.
Needless to say, in nine years, a whole lot has changed; this isn't 2003, anymore.
*Amusingly, he is now the QB coach for the Carolina Panthers, coaching one Cam Newton. Life has a funny way of working out sometimes.
Michigan Offense vs. Alabama Defense
A note: I started writing this on Tuesday. I am assuming that Toussaint is not going to play, for what it's worth. The same goes for Frank Clark.
It's hard to decide which Michigan unit has a better chance of getting anything done in this game. As I detailed throughout the summer, this Alabama team is about as talented and athletic as you would expect. So, what's the catch? There is a catch, right?
Maybe, maybe not. Ask any Alabama fan about their defense and they will talk to you about RELOADING and 5-star recruits everywhere and how this ain't 2010 (when Alabama had to replace a similar amount of premium defensive talent and then went on to have a "disappointing" 3-loss season). Well, most of it is in fact true. Alabama is talented, and at certain positions, they will rotate guys in and out with relative ease.
However, some Alabama fans are just being unreasonable. I'm sorry. That's not to say that Alabama's defense won't be good (keep in mind that that 2010 defense was still very good) because they absolutely will, or that a defense that is a cut or two below last year's wouldn't still hold Michigan to a relatively low point total.
The simple fact is, no, Alabama fans, your defense will not be as good as last year's was. Then again, last year's defense was historically good, not just good in the context of the 2011 season. Some slippage can be reasonably expected, especially when replacing 7 defensive starters. Yes, I do understand that some of the players replacing these guys have seen some game action (for example, starting corner Dee Milliner), but not all of these guys have gotten meaningful playing time. Adrian Hubbard at SLB, Quinton Dial (was a rotational type guy last year that will be a half-starter along with Ed Stinson at one end position), Deion Belue is a JUCO guy in his first season in Tuscaloosa and a starting corner, Vinnie Sunseri is a true sophomore who did play some last season but has enormous shoes to fill at strong safety, etc.
As you probably know by know, Nick Saban is an evil genius whose defenses run with Gradgrindian efficiency; it's going to be "hard times"** for Michigan indeed if the OL consistently lets rushers through en route to clean shots on Denard. That cannot happen, especially early on in the contest. Nick Saban's Alabama defenses are known for their base 3-4, but Alabama is a fairly "multiple" team. The will also likely throw the 4-3 at us, the 5-2 (with two "Jack"*** linebackers on the field at once), and passing downs have their own special wrinkles for nickle packages. Alabama will throw a lot of different things, and Borges has ostensibly does his homework on all of them. That said, being ready to combat and execute these defensive looks is another battle entirely. FWIW, here's a useful video of Saban explaining the basis for the "Star" and "Money" positions in Alabama's nickel and dime looks.
Some Crimson Tide defenders to focus on at each level of the defense: 6'4'' 320 lb. senior NG Jesse Williams (he's a position switcher moving over from end, although he did play nose in his JUCO days), 6'2'' 232 lb. junior CJ Mosley at ILB (he's not nominally a starter but he basically is based on how much he will actually play, especially against a spread spread-ish team like Michigan), and 6'0'' 215 sophomore strong saftey Vinnie Sunseri (son of a coach!). Mosley in particular is a player to pay attention to when he's on the field. He's not technically a starter, but he's probably Alabama's best linebacker, and he will be on the field in passing situations. He's also Alabama's fastest backer, so expect him to do a lot of this when Denard does dump it off:
Don't get me wrong, I love Vincent Smith, but I'm not sure he will be able to shake Mosley on the edge. However, I think a guy like Justice Hayes could do some damage in this capacity, although that is admittedly based purely on recruiting hype at this point.
If Michigan (i.e. Barnum+Omameh/Mealer) cannot contain the Balrog that is Jesse Williams from getting into the backfield or render him irrelevant by attacking the edges and taking our chances there, it's going to be a long, long day. Remember this picture?
With the pressure that Alabama is sure to bring with the Jack linebacker, bringing Sunseri down into the box, and all other sorts of defensive sorcery, things could very well look like the picture above. I think Denard would agree with me: that is not something we want to happen. Alabama has spent the last few weeks talking about how they're coming for Denard, and why wouldn't they? Unless propelled by magic (4th quarter of the ND game, the entire VT game), if you key on Denard and force him to pass, things probably get ugly. Obviously, that is easier said than done, since not every team has the pure talent to force Michigan's hand in that way. Alabama, like Michigan State, certainly does.
Analogy time! Hoke:defensive line coaching::Nick Saban:defensive backs. Saban and DC Kirby Smart have supreme confidence in their DBs, which is not unreasonable given the talent they have at their disposal and the fact that Saban might be the best and most meticulous teacher of DB technique in the country. It's his special pet project amongst all other coaching duties, much like the DL is to Hoke.
A perfect example of this confidence is the Cover 1 Robber defense, which Chris Brown of Smart Football discussed in his book released earlier this summer (and summarized excellently by this MGoBlog diary). Alabama will put its corners in man coverage with regularity, and this decision is only strengthened by the fact that Michigan's top two receivers are Roy Roundtree and Jeremy Gallon. No offense to either player, but I imagine that neither exactly strikes fear in Saban's robot ersatz heart.
Want to see the Cover 1 Robber in action? You have seen it before, and I apologize in advance for this. If you'll remember, I recently linked to this excellent post from The Only Colors on the now infamous Double A-Gap blitz. Therein, a discussion of one variant, the Cover 1 Robber, was explained in detail. Guess which play that was:
As surprisingly complicated and variegated as that particular blitz is, you can be sure that Alabama has many like this one lined up and ready to go. Denard et al need to have their hot route cues down pat, or the above will very likely occur at some point.
I don't think that Michigan will have much success attacking the middle with the ground game...at least early on. Alabama stuffed everyone, even LSU's paleolithic but effective power running game, and I think that we should expect different results. I don't think that Borges is foolish enough to do this, but if Michigan lines up in the I and attempts to run any sort of traditional power run, you can bet that thousands of Michigan fans will all be throwing up their hands in unison. Unless we're in a short yardage or goal line situation, Michigan cannot afford to waste precious plays by plugging away up the middle. This isn't the 1990s: lightning bolts will not rain down on your head if you don't run to set up the pass.
The problem with that is Michigan has Denard Robinson, who, aside from being a transcendent runner with a fantastic smile, has had some basic mechanical issues in the passing game, not mention trouble reading defenses and reacting to pressure. All of these things do sound like a recipe for disaster against a defense like Alabama's, but we have to assume that Denard has improved throughout the offseason. Playing like he did against Nebraska and Ohio State would be a start, but that's all it would be. The same gaping holes that were there against the Huskers and Buckeyes likely won't be there against Alabama, and if they are they will be closing up a little more quickly.
So, what are the options? Really, there aren't many that don't involve pinpoint execution and, quite frankly, not getting blown back at the point of attack. If either happen, it's over. An UTL-esque miracle is just not going to happen against this team.
**ELITIST REFERENCES PAWLLLL
***FYI, the JLB is basically the pass-rushing linebacker; last year, it was Courtney Upshaw.
Michigan Defense vs. Alabama Offense
We've had a couple relatively surprising moves on the defensive side of the ball come to light in the last week. First, Quinton Washington will be playing at the nose position and starting. Next to him is William Campbell, who was going to be play nose until the coaches eventually came to the realization that Black at the 3-tech just wasn't going to work. As such, BWC to the 3-tech and Black back to WDE it is. We won't truly know what the two-deep is actually like until the games begin, but, for now, Black's move is one more obstacle between Mario Ojemudia having to take the field against an Alabama team with a Brobdingnagian offensive line.
Speaking of the offensive line: they are huge. I previewed this position group way back in early April, and not much has changed (actually, nothing has). If you didn't already know, 2011 All-American LT Barrett Jones made the move to center to make room for Cyrus Kouandjio, which speaks to how highly the coaches think of the latter. This is the second move that Jones has mode (he was once a guard), so while position switches are often uncomfortable propositions, Jones has always been lauded as a smart guy and should be more than alright.
Alabama has a bevy of talented tailbacks and wide receivers. Like the secondary and linebackers, experience is the primary issue with most of these guys, although they are by no means completely green. None of these guys are Trent Richardson or Julio Jones, but they might not need to be if the ground game has worn Michigan down as I'm sure Alabama is intending to do.
You probably know about Eddie Lacy by now. He was Alabama's #3 in 2010, Richardson's backup last season, and should be the feature back this season. A pesky injury kept him out of most of spring ball, IIRC (including the A-Day scrimmage), and has still seemed to be banged up as recently as the last week or two. I linked to a video of him doing a short drill with a fairly significant amount of tape on his ankle, which may or may not mean anything.
Saban has used the words "day-to-day", and the fact that he'd be "ready to go in 5 or 6 days"...he said this on August 18th. The more time that passes, the more I get the feeling that he won't be 100% on 9/1. If that is the case, our old friend RS freshman Dee Hart and true freshman TJ Yeldon become the next guys in line. Jalston Fowler, Alabama's #3 last year and the Tide's top mooseback, appears to have made the move to H-back, where walk-on Kelly Johnson has won the starting role in what can be considered the shocker of fall camp (it hasn't been that exciting of a fall camp). Johnson has big shoes to fill, as the H-back is a very important player in Alabama's offense, which should basically stay the same despite the hiring of former Washington OC Doug Nussmeier (last year's OC, Jim McElwain, departed for the Colorado State head coaching job). Brad Smelley was a big time target for McCarron last season on key third downs (he was Alabama's second-most productive receiver in 2011). It's unreasonable to expect Johnson to be as good as Smelley, but he did win the starting nod, so he must be doing something right.
At receiver, Alabama appears to be rolling with 6'0'' 185 sophomore DeAndrew White and 6'2'' 195 junior Kevin Norwood at the "X" and "Z" positions, with 5'11'' 185 sophomore Christion Jones taking the "H" receiver position (i.e. the slot). I was somewhat surprised to see White win the starting over Kenny Bell, Alabama's leading returning receiver, but I'm not sure that it matters much. Bell is a physical, athletic receiver, and McCarron looked to him downfield on occasion last year. AJ and Bell hooked up for a 39-yard and 41-yard TD against Tennessee and Auburn (a flea flicker, FWIW) respectively. Fast forward to 0:35 in the video below to see this in action.
Anywho, Alabama has more, but to continue to name them would be overkill. Here's the thing. Alabama's offense is a little more complicated than it may seem, but in the end this game will be all about those things that make us roll our eyes when guys like Merill Hoge talk about them: toughness, resilience, the ability to bend but not break, completely unironic GRIT. If Michigan is going to get this done, it probably won't be pretty. Alabama will pick up yards on the ground and, inevitably, through the air when Mattison is forced to bring increasingly crazier and riskier blitzes. However, if Michigan can hunker down once Alabama cross the M's 30, not unlike the Sugar Bowl, then I'm saying there's a chance.
I mentioned this back when I took a look at Alabama's quarterbacks and I'll say it again: McCarron is a better player than many Michigan fans are probably giving him credit for. He's a solid player, and yeah, sure, having that team around him certainly helps. However, all you need to do to realize that being a QB for such a team is not so easy is to recall LSU's 2011 season. The quarterbacking during the national title game was so rough that folks with no stake in the result of the game (me, for example) began to plead all over the Internet for Les Miles to PUT IN THE OTHER GUY, a guy who is often known as Jarrett "Pick 6" Lee.
I mentioned that moving QW to nose and Black back to WDE was kind of like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic, but the more thought I give this configuration, the more I like it. That is 600+ pounds (607 according to MGoBlog's Fall Roster Overanalysis) of human being there in the middle. Will it be enough against an interior trio of Chance Warmack, Barrett Jones, and Anthony Steen? Maybe not, but I like Michigan's chances much better with QW than Black.
As for the ends, there was once a point when I was fairly optimistic about this group. Now, not so much. I'm having visions in my head of Beyer and Roh getting handled by Fluker and Kouandjio in the ground game and getting stonewalled in the pass rush, and who knows what kind of player Black will be after adding weight and spending so much practice time on the inside. At this point, any sort of pass rush that Michigan can get from the these guys is gravy, which is a pretty ominous thing to have to say.
With that said, things are rosier in the back 7 for Michigan. As far as tight ends go, Michael Williams is Alabama's starter. He doesn't seem to be anything extraordinary, but he is by no means a liability or anything. He was a red zone target against Penn State last season (and also the recipient of a fake field goal TD pass that Ace linked to here).
Otherwise, I feel pretty confident that Michigan's 'backers will match up in coverage. The only catch is the Williams is 6'6'' and a biscuit under 270. OF COURSE HE IS. When Alabama has Williams and an H-back in the game, odds are you are about to get smashed in the face. He's a blocker and possible red zone guy...basically, what we all hope AJ Williams will one day become.
I feel confident enough in Michigan's safeties not giving up the dreaded big play for the first half or so. But...after that, especially if Alabama has racked up enough yardage that plays like the above dart to Bell can happen? That is the moment that the game is over.
What Needs to Happen, Fergodsakes
On defense:
Predictions of Negligible Worth
Making these sorts of predictions, especially for a game like this, is a torturous thing. A prediction is not really one data point that you pluck out of thin air. It's a deliberate whittling down of all results from a giant marble slab of possibility. My point: could I see everything going perfectly, Alabama having a bad day, and Michigan eeking out an incredibly ugly yet satisfying Sugar Bowl-esque win? Yes, I honestly can. Alabama is talented, and it speaks to the state of things that Michigan is such an underdog in spite of all the big name players that Alabama lost. In two or three years, this game will be an even contest going in, but we're not quite there yet. Still, this is a good Michigan team, and not one that should be underestimated.
With that said, too many things have to go well for Michigan to win this game. Michigan will probably need to have a turnover margin of at least +2. How likely is this? If this game is played ten times, Michigan probably has everything fall into place maybe once. That's what it is. We're banking on that one, that unlikely scenario, the "Jareth Glanda catching a pass" of games.
As much as it pains me to say it, I just can't make that prediction. To be able to stick it to the reigning national champs, the team that I had to spend four years hearing about as a high schooler, would be something beyond tremendous, if such a superlative even existed.
In the end, Michigan keeps it close for the first half, but without Toussaint, Michigan just won't have enough juice to keep enough drives going to make it a game. Even with Fitz, I'm not sure that Michigan has enough. It won't be pretty, but it won't be an outright blowout. At the same time, I don't think it will necessarily be "close." Michigan is a 13.5 point underdog, which, sadly, is just about right.
Score: Alabama 31, Michigan 17
The Exposition
Time: 8 ET, ABC
Place: Cowboys Stadium--Arlington, TX
Line: Alabama -13.5
Mood: !!!!!!!+unceasing anxiety
I spent my high school years in Alabama, coinciding exactly with the Mike Shula era. This was a few months after the Mike Price fiasco, not to mention Dennis Franchione's controversial departure for Texas A&M a few months before that. Add NCAA sanctions to the mix and a new head coach in Shula* (who had been a career NFL guy to that point, and never a head coach), and you could say that things were not turning up Milhouse.
At the same time, my high school years as a Michigan fan were about as good as you could ask of your program within a 4-year window. John Navarre went out and won a Big Ten championship in 2003 to spite his squawking detractors, and Chad Henne rode piggybacked on Braylon Edwards's back in 2004 en route to another one. The 2005 season, "The Year of Infinite Pain", according to Brian, was a paper cut compared to the total system breakdown that was the Rich Rodriguez era. My final season as a high schooler was the 2006 season, of which I don't need to tell you about.
Michigan going 0-4 in its bowl games during that time put a bit of a damper on things, but it was an all around great time to be a Michigan fan, especially one living in Alabama. In retrospect, it seems almost unthinkable for Alabama to have a 4-win season and two 6-win seasons in a 4-year span, but it happened between 2003 and 2006.
Enter Nick Saban, and that's enough of that whole losing and not being mistake-free cybernetic organisms thing. Say what you will about oversigning, but there is no denying that Saban is one of the best defensive minds in the game. In five seasons, Saban has compiled a 55-12 record; half of those losses came in his first season. Simply put, Alabama has been the best team in the country since Saban arrived in Tuscaloosa.
Needless to say, in nine years, a whole lot has changed; this isn't 2003, anymore.
*Amusingly, he is now the QB coach for the Carolina Panthers, coaching one Cam Newton. Life has a funny way of working out sometimes.
Michigan Offense vs. Alabama Defense
A note: I started writing this on Tuesday. I am assuming that Toussaint is not going to play, for what it's worth. The same goes for Frank Clark.
It's hard to decide which Michigan unit has a better chance of getting anything done in this game. As I detailed throughout the summer, this Alabama team is about as talented and athletic as you would expect. So, what's the catch? There is a catch, right?
Maybe, maybe not. Ask any Alabama fan about their defense and they will talk to you about RELOADING and 5-star recruits everywhere and how this ain't 2010 (when Alabama had to replace a similar amount of premium defensive talent and then went on to have a "disappointing" 3-loss season). Well, most of it is in fact true. Alabama is talented, and at certain positions, they will rotate guys in and out with relative ease.
However, some Alabama fans are just being unreasonable. I'm sorry. That's not to say that Alabama's defense won't be good (keep in mind that that 2010 defense was still very good) because they absolutely will, or that a defense that is a cut or two below last year's wouldn't still hold Michigan to a relatively low point total.
The simple fact is, no, Alabama fans, your defense will not be as good as last year's was. Then again, last year's defense was historically good, not just good in the context of the 2011 season. Some slippage can be reasonably expected, especially when replacing 7 defensive starters. Yes, I do understand that some of the players replacing these guys have seen some game action (for example, starting corner Dee Milliner), but not all of these guys have gotten meaningful playing time. Adrian Hubbard at SLB, Quinton Dial (was a rotational type guy last year that will be a half-starter along with Ed Stinson at one end position), Deion Belue is a JUCO guy in his first season in Tuscaloosa and a starting corner, Vinnie Sunseri is a true sophomore who did play some last season but has enormous shoes to fill at strong safety, etc.
As you probably know by know, Nick Saban is an evil genius whose defenses run with Gradgrindian efficiency; it's going to be "hard times"** for Michigan indeed if the OL consistently lets rushers through en route to clean shots on Denard. That cannot happen, especially early on in the contest. Nick Saban's Alabama defenses are known for their base 3-4, but Alabama is a fairly "multiple" team. The will also likely throw the 4-3 at us, the 5-2 (with two "Jack"*** linebackers on the field at once), and passing downs have their own special wrinkles for nickle packages. Alabama will throw a lot of different things, and Borges has ostensibly does his homework on all of them. That said, being ready to combat and execute these defensive looks is another battle entirely. FWIW, here's a useful video of Saban explaining the basis for the "Star" and "Money" positions in Alabama's nickel and dime looks.
Some Crimson Tide defenders to focus on at each level of the defense: 6'4'' 320 lb. senior NG Jesse Williams (he's a position switcher moving over from end, although he did play nose in his JUCO days), 6'2'' 232 lb. junior CJ Mosley at ILB (he's not nominally a starter but he basically is based on how much he will actually play, especially against a spread spread-ish team like Michigan), and 6'0'' 215 sophomore strong saftey Vinnie Sunseri (son of a coach!). Mosley in particular is a player to pay attention to when he's on the field. He's not technically a starter, but he's probably Alabama's best linebacker, and he will be on the field in passing situations. He's also Alabama's fastest backer, so expect him to do a lot of this when Denard does dump it off:
Don't get me wrong, I love Vincent Smith, but I'm not sure he will be able to shake Mosley on the edge. However, I think a guy like Justice Hayes could do some damage in this capacity, although that is admittedly based purely on recruiting hype at this point.
If Michigan (i.e. Barnum+Omameh/Mealer) cannot contain the Balrog that is Jesse Williams from getting into the backfield or render him irrelevant by attacking the edges and taking our chances there, it's going to be a long, long day. Remember this picture?
With the pressure that Alabama is sure to bring with the Jack linebacker, bringing Sunseri down into the box, and all other sorts of defensive sorcery, things could very well look like the picture above. I think Denard would agree with me: that is not something we want to happen. Alabama has spent the last few weeks talking about how they're coming for Denard, and why wouldn't they? Unless propelled by magic (4th quarter of the ND game, the entire VT game), if you key on Denard and force him to pass, things probably get ugly. Obviously, that is easier said than done, since not every team has the pure talent to force Michigan's hand in that way. Alabama, like Michigan State, certainly does.
Analogy time! Hoke:defensive line coaching::Nick Saban:defensive backs. Saban and DC Kirby Smart have supreme confidence in their DBs, which is not unreasonable given the talent they have at their disposal and the fact that Saban might be the best and most meticulous teacher of DB technique in the country. It's his special pet project amongst all other coaching duties, much like the DL is to Hoke.
A perfect example of this confidence is the Cover 1 Robber defense, which Chris Brown of Smart Football discussed in his book released earlier this summer (and summarized excellently by this MGoBlog diary). Alabama will put its corners in man coverage with regularity, and this decision is only strengthened by the fact that Michigan's top two receivers are Roy Roundtree and Jeremy Gallon. No offense to either player, but I imagine that neither exactly strikes fear in Saban's robot ersatz heart.
Want to see the Cover 1 Robber in action? You have seen it before, and I apologize in advance for this. If you'll remember, I recently linked to this excellent post from The Only Colors on the now infamous Double A-Gap blitz. Therein, a discussion of one variant, the Cover 1 Robber, was explained in detail. Guess which play that was:
As surprisingly complicated and variegated as that particular blitz is, you can be sure that Alabama has many like this one lined up and ready to go. Denard et al need to have their hot route cues down pat, or the above will very likely occur at some point.
I don't think that Michigan will have much success attacking the middle with the ground game...at least early on. Alabama stuffed everyone, even LSU's paleolithic but effective power running game, and I think that we should expect different results. I don't think that Borges is foolish enough to do this, but if Michigan lines up in the I and attempts to run any sort of traditional power run, you can bet that thousands of Michigan fans will all be throwing up their hands in unison. Unless we're in a short yardage or goal line situation, Michigan cannot afford to waste precious plays by plugging away up the middle. This isn't the 1990s: lightning bolts will not rain down on your head if you don't run to set up the pass.
The problem with that is Michigan has Denard Robinson, who, aside from being a transcendent runner with a fantastic smile, has had some basic mechanical issues in the passing game, not mention trouble reading defenses and reacting to pressure. All of these things do sound like a recipe for disaster against a defense like Alabama's, but we have to assume that Denard has improved throughout the offseason. Playing like he did against Nebraska and Ohio State would be a start, but that's all it would be. The same gaping holes that were there against the Huskers and Buckeyes likely won't be there against Alabama, and if they are they will be closing up a little more quickly.
So, what are the options? Really, there aren't many that don't involve pinpoint execution and, quite frankly, not getting blown back at the point of attack. If either happen, it's over. An UTL-esque miracle is just not going to happen against this team.
**ELITIST REFERENCES PAWLLLL
***FYI, the JLB is basically the pass-rushing linebacker; last year, it was Courtney Upshaw.
Michigan Defense vs. Alabama Offense
Speaking of the offensive line: they are huge. I previewed this position group way back in early April, and not much has changed (actually, nothing has). If you didn't already know, 2011 All-American LT Barrett Jones made the move to center to make room for Cyrus Kouandjio, which speaks to how highly the coaches think of the latter. This is the second move that Jones has mode (he was once a guard), so while position switches are often uncomfortable propositions, Jones has always been lauded as a smart guy and should be more than alright.
Alabama has a bevy of talented tailbacks and wide receivers. Like the secondary and linebackers, experience is the primary issue with most of these guys, although they are by no means completely green. None of these guys are Trent Richardson or Julio Jones, but they might not need to be if the ground game has worn Michigan down as I'm sure Alabama is intending to do.
You probably know about Eddie Lacy by now. He was Alabama's #3 in 2010, Richardson's backup last season, and should be the feature back this season. A pesky injury kept him out of most of spring ball, IIRC (including the A-Day scrimmage), and has still seemed to be banged up as recently as the last week or two. I linked to a video of him doing a short drill with a fairly significant amount of tape on his ankle, which may or may not mean anything.
Saban has used the words "day-to-day", and the fact that he'd be "ready to go in 5 or 6 days"...he said this on August 18th. The more time that passes, the more I get the feeling that he won't be 100% on 9/1. If that is the case, our old friend RS freshman Dee Hart and true freshman TJ Yeldon become the next guys in line. Jalston Fowler, Alabama's #3 last year and the Tide's top mooseback, appears to have made the move to H-back, where walk-on Kelly Johnson has won the starting role in what can be considered the shocker of fall camp (it hasn't been that exciting of a fall camp). Johnson has big shoes to fill, as the H-back is a very important player in Alabama's offense, which should basically stay the same despite the hiring of former Washington OC Doug Nussmeier (last year's OC, Jim McElwain, departed for the Colorado State head coaching job). Brad Smelley was a big time target for McCarron last season on key third downs (he was Alabama's second-most productive receiver in 2011). It's unreasonable to expect Johnson to be as good as Smelley, but he did win the starting nod, so he must be doing something right.
At receiver, Alabama appears to be rolling with 6'0'' 185 sophomore DeAndrew White and 6'2'' 195 junior Kevin Norwood at the "X" and "Z" positions, with 5'11'' 185 sophomore Christion Jones taking the "H" receiver position (i.e. the slot). I was somewhat surprised to see White win the starting over Kenny Bell, Alabama's leading returning receiver, but I'm not sure that it matters much. Bell is a physical, athletic receiver, and McCarron looked to him downfield on occasion last year. AJ and Bell hooked up for a 39-yard and 41-yard TD against Tennessee and Auburn (a flea flicker, FWIW) respectively. Fast forward to 0:35 in the video below to see this in action.
Anywho, Alabama has more, but to continue to name them would be overkill. Here's the thing. Alabama's offense is a little more complicated than it may seem, but in the end this game will be all about those things that make us roll our eyes when guys like Merill Hoge talk about them: toughness, resilience, the ability to bend but not break, completely unironic GRIT. If Michigan is going to get this done, it probably won't be pretty. Alabama will pick up yards on the ground and, inevitably, through the air when Mattison is forced to bring increasingly crazier and riskier blitzes. However, if Michigan can hunker down once Alabama cross the M's 30, not unlike the Sugar Bowl, then I'm saying there's a chance.
I mentioned this back when I took a look at Alabama's quarterbacks and I'll say it again: McCarron is a better player than many Michigan fans are probably giving him credit for. He's a solid player, and yeah, sure, having that team around him certainly helps. However, all you need to do to realize that being a QB for such a team is not so easy is to recall LSU's 2011 season. The quarterbacking during the national title game was so rough that folks with no stake in the result of the game (me, for example) began to plead all over the Internet for Les Miles to PUT IN THE OTHER GUY, a guy who is often known as Jarrett "Pick 6" Lee.
I mentioned that moving QW to nose and Black back to WDE was kind of like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic, but the more thought I give this configuration, the more I like it. That is 600+ pounds (607 according to MGoBlog's Fall Roster Overanalysis) of human being there in the middle. Will it be enough against an interior trio of Chance Warmack, Barrett Jones, and Anthony Steen? Maybe not, but I like Michigan's chances much better with QW than Black.
As for the ends, there was once a point when I was fairly optimistic about this group. Now, not so much. I'm having visions in my head of Beyer and Roh getting handled by Fluker and Kouandjio in the ground game and getting stonewalled in the pass rush, and who knows what kind of player Black will be after adding weight and spending so much practice time on the inside. At this point, any sort of pass rush that Michigan can get from the these guys is gravy, which is a pretty ominous thing to have to say.
With that said, things are rosier in the back 7 for Michigan. As far as tight ends go, Michael Williams is Alabama's starter. He doesn't seem to be anything extraordinary, but he is by no means a liability or anything. He was a red zone target against Penn State last season (and also the recipient of a fake field goal TD pass that Ace linked to here).
Otherwise, I feel pretty confident that Michigan's 'backers will match up in coverage. The only catch is the Williams is 6'6'' and a biscuit under 270. OF COURSE HE IS. When Alabama has Williams and an H-back in the game, odds are you are about to get smashed in the face. He's a blocker and possible red zone guy...basically, what we all hope AJ Williams will one day become.
I feel confident enough in Michigan's safeties not giving up the dreaded big play for the first half or so. But...after that, especially if Alabama has racked up enough yardage that plays like the above dart to Bell can happen? That is the moment that the game is over.
What Needs to Happen, Fergodsakes
On defense:
- Say it with me now: bend but don't break. I'm sure Mattison has some tricks up his sleeve, but tricks can only do so much when the other team is simply bigger and faster. Michigan is not going to win the stat sheet battle. If Mattison's defense gives up 500 yards and manages to hold Alabama under 31, there is hope. Make them kick field goals (see: 2011 LSU game, Part 1).
- Countess and Floyd. Please be in pre-OSU/VT form. Alabama has quite a few talented players at receiver, but I'm not really convinced that there is a star among them (certainly not a Julio type). This goes without saying, but given the probably lack of a front four pass rush, JT and Blake will be on an island more fairly often. The good news is that, after a year of Mattison's diabolical blitzes and aggressiveness verging on over-aggressiveness, they're probably up to the challenge.
- Quinton and William. To put it simply, if these two look like they're on skates, there is simply no hope. Again, you can only scheme and mitigate your weaknesses so much. As Saturday approaches, I've become increasingly confident that they'll be able to hold up at least adequately; whether the linebackers can shed Warmack and Steen and tackle the ball carrier--whether an all-around talent like Lacy or a darty sort like Hart--is another story entirely. For the record, I'm fairly confident that Demens, Morgan, and Ryan will do a decent job. Jake Ryan, after QW and BWC, might be the most important player on Michigan's entire team in this game.
On offense:
- No turnovers please. If Michigan turns the ball over, chances are a win is not happening. The margin for error is razor thin.
- Get the passing game going early. My nightmare is that Michigan comes out, plugs away on the ground, fails miserably and then sees everything spiral out of control as Michigan tries to pass its way back in the game with a guy like Denard. The slant will be there, and Borges will call upon that old standby, the throwback screen to Gallon to start pushing the Alabama linebackers and safeties away from the LOS. Naturally, if that happens, that's where Denard goes to work. If there's 9 in the box, forget about it
- Devin Gardner. The wild card-iest wild card who ever wild card'd. If he is a legitimate force at receiver, that could change everything. To be quite honest, after Milliner, the rest of Alabama's corners don't impress me as much as Alabama's new linebackers do. Also, I need to see Sunseri and Clinton-Dix in action before I deem them the second coming of Ronnie Lott. I think that Michigan might get some mileage out of the so called "QB Oh Noes" play, as Brian calls it, what with Sunseri looking to be an involved and aggressive player in the run game. Borges needs to scheme against that position.
- Attack the edge, quickly. Yes, SEC speed and all that, but I think that it's just about a waste of time to try (past a token effort) to develop a between-the-tackles running game, at least in the first quarter or so. Michigan needs to be creative in its ground game, kind of like it was against Ohio State last November. Get numbers going to the edges and let's see how those pseudo-newbies at linebacker handle Denard. WR end arounds. Denard jet sweeps.
- Trick plays. Let's see 'em. Seriously, Al. 2008 Capital One Bowl Redux, this needs to be.
Making these sorts of predictions, especially for a game like this, is a torturous thing. A prediction is not really one data point that you pluck out of thin air. It's a deliberate whittling down of all results from a giant marble slab of possibility. My point: could I see everything going perfectly, Alabama having a bad day, and Michigan eeking out an incredibly ugly yet satisfying Sugar Bowl-esque win? Yes, I honestly can. Alabama is talented, and it speaks to the state of things that Michigan is such an underdog in spite of all the big name players that Alabama lost. In two or three years, this game will be an even contest going in, but we're not quite there yet. Still, this is a good Michigan team, and not one that should be underestimated.
With that said, too many things have to go well for Michigan to win this game. Michigan will probably need to have a turnover margin of at least +2. How likely is this? If this game is played ten times, Michigan probably has everything fall into place maybe once. That's what it is. We're banking on that one, that unlikely scenario, the "Jareth Glanda catching a pass" of games.
As much as it pains me to say it, I just can't make that prediction. To be able to stick it to the reigning national champs, the team that I had to spend four years hearing about as a high schooler, would be something beyond tremendous, if such a superlative even existed.
In the end, Michigan keeps it close for the first half, but without Toussaint, Michigan just won't have enough juice to keep enough drives going to make it a game. Even with Fitz, I'm not sure that Michigan has enough. It won't be pretty, but it won't be an outright blowout. At the same time, I don't think it will necessarily be "close." Michigan is a 13.5 point underdog, which, sadly, is just about right.
Score: Alabama 31, Michigan 17
Wednesday, August 29, 2012
Shameless Self-Promotion Time
We're almost there, guys. A few things:
- I did a few roundtable things over at Maize n Brew. First, on the game I'm most looking forward to and the trap-iest trap game. Next, on whether the streak against ND will continue, plus the relative winnability of MSU and @OSU. W/L predictions and B1G title game participants.
- I wrote my last words on the Toussaint situation, also at MnB. I will be very glad once this whole thing is over.
---
A couple other unrelated but useful links:
--Bill C. finally makes it to Alabama in his offseason preview series. Read it.
--Hinton on Michigan:
Consider the bar raised. That's not the case with Michigan, the team I like least compared to its lofty rankings elsewhere, in large part because of the schedule: The Wolverines open up Saturday as double-digit underdogs to Alabama, which is only the first and most notable example of how this year's schedule figures to be much harsher on Michigan than last year's. The other obvious example is at the end of the schedule, against a dramatically improved Ohio State outfit in Columbus, which figures to look nothing like the beleaguered Buckeyes that came to Ann Arbor last November; in between, two of the Wolverines' toughest home wins in 2011, over Notre Dame and Nebraska, are both road games in 2012. For a team that may have played a little bit above its head last year to begin with, another 10-win regular season would be a feat.Nothing too controversial here. I disagree with he notion that Michigan played "above its head", unless he means that Michigan was simply lucky, which they were against ND and VT. I agree with that, but I don't see any other instances of Michigan playing "above" their heads, especially since deciding where some's "head" is in this context is a subjective thing. Michigan smashed its way to 8 wins then made a trip to the luck store against ND and VT. Add in a close win against OSU and two rough losses and that just sounds like a team that significantly raised its baseline level of play and got lucky a couple of times.
Can they do it again? That is the question.
--Alabama released its depth chart yesterday. Nothing is too surprising there, although there are three things that ended up differing from what I wrote about Alabama's personnel in my preview posts:
- Kelly Johnson, a walk-on, got the starting nod at the H-back position. I honestly didn't know who he was before this week. That could either be a good or a bad thing re: the quality of Alabama's H-back, but we'll see.
- DeAndrew White won a starting role at wideout. I figured that Kenny Bell would surely be a starter considering that he is Alabama's leading returning receiver, but I guess not. It's White, a a redshirt sophomore who made 2 starts last season, Kevin Norwood (who, if you'll remember, came up big in the national title game), and slot Christion Jones. In the end, though, the starter designation is not that important. Alabama will rotate these four players, and probably one or two others as well.
- Ed Stinson won the end spot opposite from Damion Square. Stinson was a former "Jack" LB, for what it's worth. He was in a battle with Quinton Dial, a JUCO guy, for the spot. Again, this is another "doesn't really matter" designation, as the indication is that both of these guys might as well be called starters.
Monday, September 12, 2011
Is This Real Life, Is This Just Fantasy
I waited outside the the entrance to one of the student sections with a Diet Coke and a pretzel about an hour before kickoff. As excited as I was for the game, I was surprisingly calm at that moment, and you might even say I wasn't thinking much at tall. The ice in the drink had already started to melt and the drink had become diluted and deprived of its cold, crisp pop. The pretzel was ridiculously salty but I wanted to have something, anything, in my stomach before getting to my seat. The air was heavy but the sun was beginning to go away. It was probably 7:10, 7:15 at that moment. I waited and waited with bated breath for the person who was going to assist me in Operation Get Into The Student Section, which, I'm assuming, everybody has executed at one point or another. I started to get nervous that it wouldn't work out and I'd be stuck sitting with a bunch of random old people in Section 38.
As I stood there chasing the entirely too salty sting of the pretzel with the warm diluted Coke, a lady walked up to me and asked me if I could take her picture. I said sure, and I reached out for her phone while giving her the standard "what button do I push" motion. She pointed it out and then her phone turned off or something so I had to go back to her so she could put her password in to unlock it. As I pulled back again, in my peripheral vision (which, as you will see, shouldn't have been too peripheral at all), I saw something tremendous. That's right. Lloyd Carr. Of course Lloyd Carr was standing right there in front of me, the guy whose tenure as Michigan's head football coach caused me to feel the following emotions in various mixtures and a number of different sequential manifestations between 1995 and 2007: sadness, happiness, elation, frustration, disillusionment, pride, respect, depression, hope, grief, dissatisfaction, anger, admiration, nostalgia, and a number of slight variants of all of the aforementioned and an additional list of emotions and pseudo-worldviews that is too long too list and probably a little bit ridiculous.
I realized that it was in fact Lloyd Carr, standing there smiling with those glasses on and that would have made him look like he should've been standing in front of a group of undergrads in an Angell Hall auditorium, lecturing them about Kipling. The wrinkles in his forehead were there still, as prominent as ever, as if they had been etched into his being forever, a facial feature that, accompanied with his own special brand of communicating with everyone, became intertwined. Bo chewed his gum violently and talked about accountability, chewing so hard that it seemed like he wouldn't to crush it out of this world as if to prove the pure candor and viability of his ideology. Lloyd talked about tremendous things, and his forehead was always the same, furrowed and divided into little segments that seemed to become more pronounced over time.
I'm thinking all these things now, but at that moment I completely froze. Of course I would meet Lloyd Carr while I was standing there like a complete idiot with a drink and a pretzel in my hand. I took the picture and handed it to the lady, seceretly jealous of her accomplishment because I knew I wouldn't ask Lloyd for a picture because I didn't want to stop him from going wherever it was he was going to go. I tried to think of something to say to him before he walked away; the last time I was this close to Lloyd was two years ago in Angell Hall between classes in the corridor where all the auditoriums were located, and I wasn't sure when the next time I'd be this close to a person like him would ever come again. It was crunch time, it was time for me to say something. Naturally, my brain fizzled and turned into a fried egg on a Blimpy burger. The entirety of a childhood and adolescence's worth of watching Michigan football--with Lloyd as its leader--flashed through my head. I was eight years old when Michigan beat Washington State and I remember it like it was yesterday. Everything, from the Pac Ten Road Games of Death to the 2003 Ohio State game to the 2006 Ohio State game to "What kind of stupid question is that?" to the Florida game flashed through my head in a single moment. I had to say something meaningful, and each tenth and hundredth of a second that passed made it less and less likely that I would say anything good enough to encapsulate everything that was running through my head at a million miles an hour.
The lady said thank you but I barely acknowledged it; Lloyd began to walk away and I said two words in the last moment that he was looking at me: Go Blue. He smiled and waved goodbye without saying anything and he didn't even have to. He walked away into the mass of people roaming about the concourse, by himself, as if he was just another guy and not the guy who won a national championship when I was eight. Like that he was gone, and I was left wondering if that had really happened, a moment so bizarrely real and coincidental--for instance, why did I choose to stand at that spot on the concourse, as opposed to any other where I would not have been approached by the woman and Lloyd?--that it's hyper-reality caused me to stop for a second and assess what had just happened. It had happened, but I wasn't sure if it was real.
And that is what Saturday night was like.
The Offense
So, that game. As unbelievable as the game was in every aspect, it brought several issues to the forefront that were concerns merely bubbling in the subconscious of Michigan fans everywhere but are now legitimate, out-in-the-open things to fret about. The first half was just plain frustrating to watch. Other than the 43-yard Hemingway touchdown, Michigan was going nowhere, and it's clear that Borges is still trying to feel out what he can and can't do with Denard. At this point, I think it's pretty obvious. There are certain throws that he definitely should not be making, but, at the same time, Denard still has some work to do on knowing when it's a good time to throw it and when it isn't. I realize that it may be anti-productive re: Denard's development as a pro-style/West Coast/non purely spread quarterback, but there were times where I just had to think that Denard should have taken off. At the same time, I like that we're two games in and Denard isn't broken, so that's good.
Other than Borges's playcalling, the offensive line was just manhandled b Notre Dame's front. I admittedly have not had a chance to watch the game again, and maybe ND was just loading up on the run, but we could get nothing going on the ground for quite some time...which brings me to my next concern: the running backs. At this point, I think Michigan's situation is basically going to constantly be like the 2004 season before the San Diego State game (which, if you'll remember, is when Mike Hart officially become The Man), unless Toussaint can stay healthy, which, good luck with that. I'm still not sure what his deal was, but I'm assuming he was injured, which is frustrating but expected, sadly. However, I will say this (and again, being in the stadium it was hard to notice a lot of things): after looking at the box score, I had no idea that the backs had so few carries. Not only that, but Hopkins getting the most out of any of the backs is kind of absurd. I've been really excited to see what Hopkins can do, especially going forward with his ostensible skills being the logical fit for the offense of the future that they are, but that hype train has completely derailed. Hopkins with 5 and Smith and Shaw with 1 and 2, respectively, is ridiculous and just won't do going forward. Not that Shaw is lighting the world on fire, and not that Smith can really realistically be expected to carry the ball more than a maybe 5-7 times a game, but Hopkins has shown absolutely nothing thus far, while also showcasing a bad case of fumbleitis. Luckily for him, Denard was there for the scoop and score, but it won't work out so nicely the next time that happens. Shaw and Smith can both do what he does (i.e., plow into the line with no vision), but at least they can either take one to the distance if the hole is there (Shaw) or make somebody miss (Smith). Hopkins's only "skill" right now is being big. In short, he needs to not get too many more meaningful snaps, and he definitely shouldn't lead the backs in carries in any game the rest of this season.
The running game is going to hurt us, because Denard is not going to go 11/24 for 338 yards (!) every game. We can only hope that Toussaint gets well soon. Obviously no game is a gimme these days, but we shouldn't need him for a few weeks. Let's hope he's ready by NU or it might have to be Denard left and Denard right once again.
As for the receivers, it was a pretty up and down affair. A few drops from Hemingway and Roundtree were plays that just need to be made, but the big plays of course made up for them in the end. To say that Denard and the wideouts have the ole underthrow the deep ball maneuver down pat would be an understatement. With only 11 receptions spread among seven different guys, it's hard to say anybody had a great game but they made the plays when it counted. Hemingway needs to continue to post up and get the ball going forward...the guy is just a master at that. Also, Jeremy Gallon looked like a player. I'm not so sure about the whole "throwing jump balls to a tiny guy" strategy, but who knows. As sad as I am for the apparent disappearance of Martavious Odoms from the face of the earth, it appears that Gallon passed him up on the depth chart for a reason.
The Defense
It's all relative, I guess. Just putting it out there, but Michael Floyd is pretty good. He consistently made out defensive backs look silly, as he was just bigger, faster, stronger, and better than any of them. Anybody who expected us to shut him down like we did last year was a little naive.
It's obvious that Michigan just can't create any sort of pressure without blitzing, and as I'm sure Brian's UFR will show, blitzing has its costs. On the bright side, the defense really hunkered down and did what it had to do in the second half. Oh the wonders of second half adjustments! Yes, Mr. Mattison, Greg Robinson is interested in what you have to say and would like to subscribe to your newsletter. Other than the complete breakdown on the final ND touchdown, it's hard to be anything but proud about how the defense showed up in the second half. Maybe the Irish are just not good at taking care of the ball (10 turnovers in two games), but you have to credit the defense some.
ND was killing us in yardage in the first half but in the end it didn't matter. Third down defense is of course still an enormous issue, as it has been for pretty much the last eleventy billion years of Michigan football. ND's 8/14 is not what you want to say the least, and that absolutely needs to improve, whether through pressure from the front four (paging Craig Roh) or more zone blitzing from the mind of Coach Mattison, but something needs to change. You have to give ND credit, though; despite the disappointing start to their season, I think you can safely say that that offensive is straight up good and knows how to move the ball. If they can figure out that whole things called "ball security" then they can still somewhat salvage this season. ND will continue to put up yards and points on a lot of people this season, so I don't feel too badly. Rees is plainly a better quarterback than Crist, so they'll at least have continuity at that position barring injury. Floyd is ridiculously good and Cierre Wood looked fast and shifty and quite honestly better than anything we've been trotting out there in the backfield. Even Jonas Gray looked good. ND has some serious talent on offense, and the way that Michigan was able to make some stops and collect some turnovers was encouraging. Baby steps.
Special Teams
Once again, this was nothing to write home about. Wile had a decent but not spectacular day, with five punts good for 38.6 per and a long of 47. Gibbons didn't attempt a field goal for the second week in a row, a thing which is both good and bad. I really hope he gets to kick a few in the coming weeks just for the sake of getting out there and getting some confidence. Eventually, we're going to need him to kick one, as much as we don't want to have to think about it.
The return game was just average again: Smith had five returns for an average of 19.6 per return (a long of 24), and Gallon returned one punt for 15 yards. On the flip side, Theo Riddick had a similar average on kick returns for ND (19.8 per) but he did have a long of 34. Michigan needs to continue to work on this; the defense is simply not good enough to try and stop people playing a short field.
Miscellaneous Minutiae
As I stood there chasing the entirely too salty sting of the pretzel with the warm diluted Coke, a lady walked up to me and asked me if I could take her picture. I said sure, and I reached out for her phone while giving her the standard "what button do I push" motion. She pointed it out and then her phone turned off or something so I had to go back to her so she could put her password in to unlock it. As I pulled back again, in my peripheral vision (which, as you will see, shouldn't have been too peripheral at all), I saw something tremendous. That's right. Lloyd Carr. Of course Lloyd Carr was standing right there in front of me, the guy whose tenure as Michigan's head football coach caused me to feel the following emotions in various mixtures and a number of different sequential manifestations between 1995 and 2007: sadness, happiness, elation, frustration, disillusionment, pride, respect, depression, hope, grief, dissatisfaction, anger, admiration, nostalgia, and a number of slight variants of all of the aforementioned and an additional list of emotions and pseudo-worldviews that is too long too list and probably a little bit ridiculous.
I realized that it was in fact Lloyd Carr, standing there smiling with those glasses on and that would have made him look like he should've been standing in front of a group of undergrads in an Angell Hall auditorium, lecturing them about Kipling. The wrinkles in his forehead were there still, as prominent as ever, as if they had been etched into his being forever, a facial feature that, accompanied with his own special brand of communicating with everyone, became intertwined. Bo chewed his gum violently and talked about accountability, chewing so hard that it seemed like he wouldn't to crush it out of this world as if to prove the pure candor and viability of his ideology. Lloyd talked about tremendous things, and his forehead was always the same, furrowed and divided into little segments that seemed to become more pronounced over time.
I'm thinking all these things now, but at that moment I completely froze. Of course I would meet Lloyd Carr while I was standing there like a complete idiot with a drink and a pretzel in my hand. I took the picture and handed it to the lady, seceretly jealous of her accomplishment because I knew I wouldn't ask Lloyd for a picture because I didn't want to stop him from going wherever it was he was going to go. I tried to think of something to say to him before he walked away; the last time I was this close to Lloyd was two years ago in Angell Hall between classes in the corridor where all the auditoriums were located, and I wasn't sure when the next time I'd be this close to a person like him would ever come again. It was crunch time, it was time for me to say something. Naturally, my brain fizzled and turned into a fried egg on a Blimpy burger. The entirety of a childhood and adolescence's worth of watching Michigan football--with Lloyd as its leader--flashed through my head. I was eight years old when Michigan beat Washington State and I remember it like it was yesterday. Everything, from the Pac Ten Road Games of Death to the 2003 Ohio State game to the 2006 Ohio State game to "What kind of stupid question is that?" to the Florida game flashed through my head in a single moment. I had to say something meaningful, and each tenth and hundredth of a second that passed made it less and less likely that I would say anything good enough to encapsulate everything that was running through my head at a million miles an hour.
The lady said thank you but I barely acknowledged it; Lloyd began to walk away and I said two words in the last moment that he was looking at me: Go Blue. He smiled and waved goodbye without saying anything and he didn't even have to. He walked away into the mass of people roaming about the concourse, by himself, as if he was just another guy and not the guy who won a national championship when I was eight. Like that he was gone, and I was left wondering if that had really happened, a moment so bizarrely real and coincidental--for instance, why did I choose to stand at that spot on the concourse, as opposed to any other where I would not have been approached by the woman and Lloyd?--that it's hyper-reality caused me to stop for a second and assess what had just happened. It had happened, but I wasn't sure if it was real.
And that is what Saturday night was like.
The Offense
So, that game. As unbelievable as the game was in every aspect, it brought several issues to the forefront that were concerns merely bubbling in the subconscious of Michigan fans everywhere but are now legitimate, out-in-the-open things to fret about. The first half was just plain frustrating to watch. Other than the 43-yard Hemingway touchdown, Michigan was going nowhere, and it's clear that Borges is still trying to feel out what he can and can't do with Denard. At this point, I think it's pretty obvious. There are certain throws that he definitely should not be making, but, at the same time, Denard still has some work to do on knowing when it's a good time to throw it and when it isn't. I realize that it may be anti-productive re: Denard's development as a pro-style/West Coast/non purely spread quarterback, but there were times where I just had to think that Denard should have taken off. At the same time, I like that we're two games in and Denard isn't broken, so that's good.
Other than Borges's playcalling, the offensive line was just manhandled b Notre Dame's front. I admittedly have not had a chance to watch the game again, and maybe ND was just loading up on the run, but we could get nothing going on the ground for quite some time...which brings me to my next concern: the running backs. At this point, I think Michigan's situation is basically going to constantly be like the 2004 season before the San Diego State game (which, if you'll remember, is when Mike Hart officially become The Man), unless Toussaint can stay healthy, which, good luck with that. I'm still not sure what his deal was, but I'm assuming he was injured, which is frustrating but expected, sadly. However, I will say this (and again, being in the stadium it was hard to notice a lot of things): after looking at the box score, I had no idea that the backs had so few carries. Not only that, but Hopkins getting the most out of any of the backs is kind of absurd. I've been really excited to see what Hopkins can do, especially going forward with his ostensible skills being the logical fit for the offense of the future that they are, but that hype train has completely derailed. Hopkins with 5 and Smith and Shaw with 1 and 2, respectively, is ridiculous and just won't do going forward. Not that Shaw is lighting the world on fire, and not that Smith can really realistically be expected to carry the ball more than a maybe 5-7 times a game, but Hopkins has shown absolutely nothing thus far, while also showcasing a bad case of fumbleitis. Luckily for him, Denard was there for the scoop and score, but it won't work out so nicely the next time that happens. Shaw and Smith can both do what he does (i.e., plow into the line with no vision), but at least they can either take one to the distance if the hole is there (Shaw) or make somebody miss (Smith). Hopkins's only "skill" right now is being big. In short, he needs to not get too many more meaningful snaps, and he definitely shouldn't lead the backs in carries in any game the rest of this season.
The running game is going to hurt us, because Denard is not going to go 11/24 for 338 yards (!) every game. We can only hope that Toussaint gets well soon. Obviously no game is a gimme these days, but we shouldn't need him for a few weeks. Let's hope he's ready by NU or it might have to be Denard left and Denard right once again.
As for the receivers, it was a pretty up and down affair. A few drops from Hemingway and Roundtree were plays that just need to be made, but the big plays of course made up for them in the end. To say that Denard and the wideouts have the ole underthrow the deep ball maneuver down pat would be an understatement. With only 11 receptions spread among seven different guys, it's hard to say anybody had a great game but they made the plays when it counted. Hemingway needs to continue to post up and get the ball going forward...the guy is just a master at that. Also, Jeremy Gallon looked like a player. I'm not so sure about the whole "throwing jump balls to a tiny guy" strategy, but who knows. As sad as I am for the apparent disappearance of Martavious Odoms from the face of the earth, it appears that Gallon passed him up on the depth chart for a reason.
The Defense
It's all relative, I guess. Just putting it out there, but Michael Floyd is pretty good. He consistently made out defensive backs look silly, as he was just bigger, faster, stronger, and better than any of them. Anybody who expected us to shut him down like we did last year was a little naive.
It's obvious that Michigan just can't create any sort of pressure without blitzing, and as I'm sure Brian's UFR will show, blitzing has its costs. On the bright side, the defense really hunkered down and did what it had to do in the second half. Oh the wonders of second half adjustments! Yes, Mr. Mattison, Greg Robinson is interested in what you have to say and would like to subscribe to your newsletter. Other than the complete breakdown on the final ND touchdown, it's hard to be anything but proud about how the defense showed up in the second half. Maybe the Irish are just not good at taking care of the ball (10 turnovers in two games), but you have to credit the defense some.
ND was killing us in yardage in the first half but in the end it didn't matter. Third down defense is of course still an enormous issue, as it has been for pretty much the last eleventy billion years of Michigan football. ND's 8/14 is not what you want to say the least, and that absolutely needs to improve, whether through pressure from the front four (paging Craig Roh) or more zone blitzing from the mind of Coach Mattison, but something needs to change. You have to give ND credit, though; despite the disappointing start to their season, I think you can safely say that that offensive is straight up good and knows how to move the ball. If they can figure out that whole things called "ball security" then they can still somewhat salvage this season. ND will continue to put up yards and points on a lot of people this season, so I don't feel too badly. Rees is plainly a better quarterback than Crist, so they'll at least have continuity at that position barring injury. Floyd is ridiculously good and Cierre Wood looked fast and shifty and quite honestly better than anything we've been trotting out there in the backfield. Even Jonas Gray looked good. ND has some serious talent on offense, and the way that Michigan was able to make some stops and collect some turnovers was encouraging. Baby steps.
Special Teams
Once again, this was nothing to write home about. Wile had a decent but not spectacular day, with five punts good for 38.6 per and a long of 47. Gibbons didn't attempt a field goal for the second week in a row, a thing which is both good and bad. I really hope he gets to kick a few in the coming weeks just for the sake of getting out there and getting some confidence. Eventually, we're going to need him to kick one, as much as we don't want to have to think about it.
The return game was just average again: Smith had five returns for an average of 19.6 per return (a long of 24), and Gallon returned one punt for 15 yards. On the flip side, Theo Riddick had a similar average on kick returns for ND (19.8 per) but he did have a long of 34. Michigan needs to continue to work on this; the defense is simply not good enough to try and stop people playing a short field.
Miscellaneous Minutiae
- Here's where I talk about the event itself: unbelievable. I still can't talk. I've been to football games at Auburn, Ohio State, and Penn State, and the Big House was definitely as loud and probably louder than all three. It was surreal, and while there were still your fair share of students just standing there not making noise or doing much of anything on some plays, the student section was loud, as was the rest of the stadium. Home field advantage may or may not be overrated but you can't tell me that it didn't help and that it didn't affect ND (in addition to energizing the Wolverine players as well).
- Music: I was once completely against piped-in music, but its pretty undeniable that its a net positive, if not a significant one. Other than Pop Evil, which needs to just go away forever, the piped-in music did its job. Sometimes you just have to make a compromise in an attempt to reach out to certain groups of fans (i.e., students, the casual fan, the not-old-and-grumpy adult fan, etc.), and quite frankly it was a huge success. As ubiquitous as Seven Nation Army has become, even the most die-hard traditionalist would have to admit that the moments after they played it the first time were just plain awesome. Obviously, we've got to watch what we play (Thunderstruck, Welcome to the Jungle, SNA, and maybe a couple of others, are on a short list of piped-in music that shouldn't make you upset) and when we play it going forward, but this Saturday was a perfect mix of band and piped-in music in my humble opinion. If we could just get rid of Pop Evil and Sweet Caroline then it would pretty much be perfect.
- The pom-poms--also known as "shakers" in SEC country--were awesome and an aesthetic victory whether you were in the stadium or watching from home. To the people that complain about them, just watch any old Michigan games and you'll find Michigan fans with said pom-poms (for example, the 1998 Rose Bowl). This isn't a "new" thing, so Down In Front guy needs to chill out and decry something else.
- Maybe I'm just imagining things, but the amplification of the band sounded a lot better than it did last season: am I imagining this? I don't even know anymore.
- This should easily and without question happen once a year. Sure, night games in the future will never measure up this one, but other schools have them all the time...why not us? The fact that people have treated the concept of a night game as some ridiculous foreign concept that has come down to Earth from Mars or something has been fairly amusing. Traditions have to start somewhere, and I think this could be another one in an already extensive list of Michigan traditions.
- Jake Ryan! Again, Jake Ryan showed some promise.
- BOOM BRANDIN HAWTHORNE OUTTA NOWHERE. Man, Hawthorne looked like he could be a factor this year. He looked fast and aggressive and overall like a guy you'd want out there on defense that I could imagine being one of those mean, kind of undersized SEC linebackers. I'm excited to see what he does the rest of this season. I'm sure he made some mistakes, but this was an enormous step forward for him: going from an anonymous afterthought to a legitimate contender to start is no small feat.
- Desmond Morgan is just not ready to be a starter let alone a frequent participant. Maybe in a year or two, but not now.
- In perhaps one of the most encouraging developments of the game, Will Campbell showed some signs of improvement. I can't remember what point in the game it was but he absolutely demolished some poor lineman on one play, and was involved in a number of others as well. He's still not starter material, but if Campbell can become a reliable run-stopping rotation guy then that would be an enormous asset. I'm sure the way his career has gone has been infinitely more frustrating for him than every Michigan fan combined, so it was nice to see him dancing around and getting hyped up there in the fourth quarter. I am legitimately happy for him and I hope he can continue to improve.
- Craig Roh...man. I'm not sure what the deal is, but he just has not been a factor at all this season. I honestly don't have anything to say because I have no idea what's going on; Jibreel Black has been a bigger factor than Roh this year.
- It looks like 2009 Vincent Smith is officially back. He looked quick on that screen pass after a year or so of not looking like nearly the quick little guy he was pre-knee injury. I don't think he's a guy that should get too many carries on a regular basis, but he's still an invaluable part of this offense.
- It was great to be back in the Big House again...to all the current students out there, enjoy it while it lasts.
- I know I saw Odoms out there at least once...he came in only to go back out after Michigan called a timeout. I just feel terrible for the guy. I really hope we can get him involved at some point; despite Gallon's emergence, Odoms still brings a lot of things to the table.
- Denard is the man. Seriously, has there ever been a more likable Michigan athlete? "THE GAME IS OVER!"
- All I have to say is that I'm glad we've got Eastern this week.
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