My game preview for tomorrow's Outback Bowl against South Carolina went up a little while ago over at Maize n Brew. If anyone has any extra canisters of blind optimism just lying around, send 'em my way.
27 hours to kickoff.
Showing posts with label game previews. Show all posts
Showing posts with label game previews. Show all posts
Monday, December 31, 2012
Shameless Self-Promotion Time: South Carolina Preview
My game preview for tomorrow's Outback Bowl against South Carolina went up a little while ago over at Maize n Brew. If anyone has any extra canisters of blind optimism just lying around, send 'em my way.
27 hours to kickoff.
Friday, September 21, 2012
Notre Dame Preview: Once Is A Mistake, Twice Is A Coincidence
After a brief hiatus--UMass being, you know, UMass--I'm back to the Friday morning previewin' game. Given that it is Notre Dame, most of this could probably be whittled down to "Denard Robinson needs to do Denard Robinson things", but...here it is, anyway.
Time: 7:30 ET (NBC)
Place: Notre Dame Stadium--South Bend, IN
Line: Notre Dame -5 1/2
Mood: Like someone at a craps table, hoping for one more run before retreating into the night.
Making an attempt to explain the last three games in this series is as useless as counting the stars in the sky or pondering the meaning of life: really, they happened and they're there, and that's all you need to know. That doesn't mean that we can't mythologize or look back through layers of intoxicating nostalgia, it's just that these three separate 3-hour events, twice in Ann Arbor and once in South Bend, defy any attempts at empirical or rational reckoning. Try to explain last year's Notre Dame game to a friend and all the clocks within a one mile radius will begin to melt and Salvador Dalí will emerge from a wormhole to smack you across the face and say bastante.
Sure, these past performances certainly will be hanging in the air over Notre Dame Stadium on Saturday, a reminder to ND fans and players of how things can go so utterly wrong, of how deep the abyss is, as well as the concern that there might be even further depths which remain to be visited. Of course, on the Michigan side, it will all be a subtle nod to the power of magic. The power of Denard Robinson, like gravity, is unseen but knowable and therefore some sort of benevolent sorcery, kind of like having Gandalf on your side. You don't know where he will come from and at what point in the proceedings, but he eventually does, and with spectacular results, results that make you feel as if your cause is...invincible.
With that said, the aforementioned is nice to talk about but not as important as many will have you believe. Past performance does not ensure future results, and magical coincidence is more often than not just magical coincidence. When Michigan and Notre Dame meet, especially in South Bend, all layers of reality and preconceived notions are stripped away, which is basically just a roundabout way of telling you to take them there record books and throw 'em out.
Like every Michigan-ND game, there's an unnerving anticipation in the buildup that is only intensified by the 7:30 start time. Although both teams have already faced big tests and marquee opponents, this is still the one of the primary forks in the road in each team's season. Lose and feel the expectations temper and languish. Win and, rightly or wrongly, watch the expectations soar.
Michigan Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense
I know that the whole "just do what Alabama did" became somewhat of a meme this week, but there are some similarities between Alabama and ND: they both deploy the 3-4 defense that deploys a rush linebacker sort that goes by a special name. For Alabama, it was the "Jack" linebacker. For the Irish, the position is branded the "Cat" linebacker position, which doesn't seem very cool, creative, or in any topical but okay Notre Dame coaches too busy thinking about football to come up with good gimmicky position names.
While I'm not sure just yet that Prince Shembo is as good as Courtney Upshaw was for Alabama at the JLB spot, he's pretty darn good (and also fantastically named). Shembo had his best game of the season last week against MSU, amassing 9 of his 15 total tackles on the year, including a sack (2 TFLs). At, 6'2'' 250 and sporting the #55, I'm kind of reminded of Brandon Graham, which probably isn't an accurate comparison but whatever. He is a terror, and Michael Schofield (and Vincent Smith) will need to be on their pass pro games if Denard is not going to be Shembo'd into oblivion.
I'm not positive that Diaco will release the hounds when it comes to the defensive ends, #89 Kapron Lewis-Moore and #7 Stephon Tuitt, but the linebackers have certainly been aggressive the last couple of seasons. This has allowed Denard to do Denardian things once he's gotten out to the second level. I think this will need to happen again, as I don't see Michigan's interior line having much success moving NT Louis Nix; again, I'm not sure that Nix=Jesse Williams, but he is definitely very good. As I read Ace's FFFF post yesterday, the section on Nix sort of reminded me of, yup...Jerel Worthy. That is not a very good thing of which to be reminded.
Quite frankly, Michigan will not have much reproducible success running the ball with Toussaint; if any back has success in this game, I have a strange hunch that that back is Vincent Smith. Michigan will find itself in passing situations fairly often, and Smith could prove useful swinging out to the flat and/or filling into the zones which blitzing, hyperactive linebackers have just vacated in the middle of the field. Of course, the only problem with that is that Smith is of course tiny--see: Denard's INT against Air Force--and Denard being who he is will probably lead to some more dangerously errant passes. Throw it high enough but low enough for it to hit Smith in the fingertips and you're looking at a basic tip drill for the D.
Al Borges made a nice point in one of this week's pressers about his confusion regarding the fans' strange insistence that rushing yards only "count" when they come from a running back; against Notre Dame, Michigan has gotten it done on the ground with Denard and Denard alone. Is that type of strategy sustainable? Well, you tell me, 2010 and 2011 scoreboards. However, can it happen again? I'm not so sure.
The only scenario in which I see Michigan having some success on the ground with somebody not named Denard is, you guessed it, by successfully attacking Notre Dame's vulnerable, depleted secondary. Andrew Maxwell and his receivers were not able to take advantage of ND's secondary despite having 8+ defenders in the box with regularity, but I'd like to think that Michigan's QB and receivers are significantly more dangerous than their Spartan counterparts.
In short, yes, I am unironically saying that Michigan should go with the Alabama gameplan this week. ND's defense is several degrees inferior to Alabama's but is also quite possibly the best defense left of Michigan's schedule. I'm definitely not saying that we shouldn't run Denard much for fear of injury or something (as was the theory behind that strategy on 9/1), but running Denard left and right right off the bat is something that ND will be ready for.
Michigan Defense vs. Notre Dame Offense
Listening to the MGoPodcast this week, the consensus seems to be that Everett Golson is sort of in his ur-Denard (to borrow Matt Hinton's phraseology) stage as a quarterback: a not necessarily accurate guy who can make big plays but also mess up the basic ones. He is an exciting prospect, certainly more exciting than Rees and Dayne Crist were, but still very much in the inchoate stages of his development.
Like Denard, Golson is not exactly Cam Newton; at 6'0'' 185 (according to his official Notre Dame profile, at least), he's bound to be called things like "slight" and "willowy" and "probably-needs-to-eat-more". Regardless, he has flashed the playmaking ability that is giving me some bad flashbacks of the 2004 Ohio State game in which a young Troy Smith had himself a day against a favored Michigan team. Needless to say, we have to hope that when Notre Dame drops back to pass, Golson's arms turns into a Ramen noodle or something and that Michigan's can mitigate the lack of a formidable pass rush by keeping contain and not letting Golson run around a la Smith circa 2004.
In average passing situations--i.e. when Golson isn't just freestylin' and profilin'--Michigan should be okay. Notre Dame's receiving options don't really worry me, and I think our corners will be just fine. Tyler Eifert is the next guy in a long line of Notre Dame NFL quality tight ends, but Eifert seems to be more of the hyrbrid WR/TE Greg Olsen/Travis Beckum/etc. sort than a traditional pseudo-lineman with clubs for hands that only catch 1-yard play action passes in goal to go situations. Eifert can really play, and will be a matchup problem when going up against pretty much anybody in Michigan's back 7; strangely, however, Eifert did not record a reception against MSU last week.
Otherwise, there isn't a Michael Floyd in this group, although these are still ND recruits and thus capable of doing damage; after all, let's not forget that our starting corners are likely J.T. Floyd, a sometimes maligned former safety and Raymon Taylor, a still fairly green true sophomore. I have great faith in Taylor, and he's been my "guy who I'm irrationally excited about" since he got playing time early on in the 2011 season. Still, the thought of him playing the field corner spot on the road with a taller receiver like DaVaris Daniels across the way from him or a speedster like TJ Jones (who is most famous for doing this). He did also do this last year to make it 24-7, making the situation seem nearly hopeless for the Wolverines:
What Needs To Happen, Fergodsakes
On offense:
I, like you, have that faint glimmering hope that Denard will finish his career as ND's ultimate kryponite, and that he has one more soul-crushing, virtuoso performance in store for the Irish. With that said, attempting to accomplish something a third time takes that thing from mere coincidence to trend, and I'm not entirely sure that what we have here is some sort of underlying, fundamental trend. That is, I'm not sure that Michigan can beat Notre Dame, no matter what, just because we have Denard Robinson.
This is essentially a greatly scaled down version of the Alabama game. Notre Dame is not Alabama by any means, but they do have strong defensive talent in the front 7 and they do have a solid offensive line and a deep group of talented tailbacks. They will try to enforce their will on Michigan's decidedly average front, and Michigan has no choice but to hope for mistakes on ND's part from time to time...which, to be fair, ND has been happy to oblige the Wolverines with of late.
I know I said this last year, and I have no idea what ND's final record will be this season, but I think this ND team is better than this Michigan team. The same thing could have been said leading up to the 2009, 2010, and 2011 matchups; of course, that did not stop Michigan from winning each of those games. Michigan has discovered the alchemic route to gold, that being a little bit of luck and a lot of Denard Robinson.
As always, a "prediction" is a defraying of the sum of all predictions. That is, which outcome is the "most likely" to take place? Saying that one thing will happen does not preclude the belief that any other option is also possible.
With that said, I think we are bound for a 3+ hour drive to anticlimax. I don't see Michigan generating enough offense to keep up, and I don't think we are in for Denard Eviscerates Notre Dame Part III. Likewise, I don't see where the playmaking will come from in the Michigan defense (outside of Jake Ryan, that is).
In the end, I think Michigan goes to South Bend and takes a loss in a game that will essentially reflect what probably should have happened last season: Notre Dame accumulates around 500 yards or so and generally controls the game from start to finish. Everett Golson hasn't been around long enough to convince anybody that he is or isn't prone to committing silly turnovers, but it's obvious that he isn't as careless with the ball as Tommy Rees. As such, I don't think that Michigan can expect to be kept in the game with unforced and untimely errors from the ND side. Michigan takes an ugly and only cosmetically close loss in South Bend, a game that will come to be seen as the Godfather III of the Denard vs. Notre Dame saga.
Score: Michigan 17, Notre Dame 27
Time: 7:30 ET (NBC)
Place: Notre Dame Stadium--South Bend, IN
Line: Notre Dame -5 1/2
Mood: Like someone at a craps table, hoping for one more run before retreating into the night.
(HT: Mike DeSimone)
The Exposition Making an attempt to explain the last three games in this series is as useless as counting the stars in the sky or pondering the meaning of life: really, they happened and they're there, and that's all you need to know. That doesn't mean that we can't mythologize or look back through layers of intoxicating nostalgia, it's just that these three separate 3-hour events, twice in Ann Arbor and once in South Bend, defy any attempts at empirical or rational reckoning. Try to explain last year's Notre Dame game to a friend and all the clocks within a one mile radius will begin to melt and Salvador Dalí will emerge from a wormhole to smack you across the face and say bastante.
Sure, these past performances certainly will be hanging in the air over Notre Dame Stadium on Saturday, a reminder to ND fans and players of how things can go so utterly wrong, of how deep the abyss is, as well as the concern that there might be even further depths which remain to be visited. Of course, on the Michigan side, it will all be a subtle nod to the power of magic. The power of Denard Robinson, like gravity, is unseen but knowable and therefore some sort of benevolent sorcery, kind of like having Gandalf on your side. You don't know where he will come from and at what point in the proceedings, but he eventually does, and with spectacular results, results that make you feel as if your cause is...invincible.
With that said, the aforementioned is nice to talk about but not as important as many will have you believe. Past performance does not ensure future results, and magical coincidence is more often than not just magical coincidence. When Michigan and Notre Dame meet, especially in South Bend, all layers of reality and preconceived notions are stripped away, which is basically just a roundabout way of telling you to take them there record books and throw 'em out.
Like every Michigan-ND game, there's an unnerving anticipation in the buildup that is only intensified by the 7:30 start time. Although both teams have already faced big tests and marquee opponents, this is still the one of the primary forks in the road in each team's season. Lose and feel the expectations temper and languish. Win and, rightly or wrongly, watch the expectations soar.
Michigan Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense
I know that the whole "just do what Alabama did" became somewhat of a meme this week, but there are some similarities between Alabama and ND: they both deploy the 3-4 defense that deploys a rush linebacker sort that goes by a special name. For Alabama, it was the "Jack" linebacker. For the Irish, the position is branded the "Cat" linebacker position, which doesn't seem very cool, creative, or in any topical but okay Notre Dame coaches too busy thinking about football to come up with good gimmicky position names.
While I'm not sure just yet that Prince Shembo is as good as Courtney Upshaw was for Alabama at the JLB spot, he's pretty darn good (and also fantastically named). Shembo had his best game of the season last week against MSU, amassing 9 of his 15 total tackles on the year, including a sack (2 TFLs). At, 6'2'' 250 and sporting the #55, I'm kind of reminded of Brandon Graham, which probably isn't an accurate comparison but whatever. He is a terror, and Michael Schofield (and Vincent Smith) will need to be on their pass pro games if Denard is not going to be Shembo'd into oblivion.
I'm not positive that Diaco will release the hounds when it comes to the defensive ends, #89 Kapron Lewis-Moore and #7 Stephon Tuitt, but the linebackers have certainly been aggressive the last couple of seasons. This has allowed Denard to do Denardian things once he's gotten out to the second level. I think this will need to happen again, as I don't see Michigan's interior line having much success moving NT Louis Nix; again, I'm not sure that Nix=Jesse Williams, but he is definitely very good. As I read Ace's FFFF post yesterday, the section on Nix sort of reminded me of, yup...Jerel Worthy. That is not a very good thing of which to be reminded.
Quite frankly, Michigan will not have much reproducible success running the ball with Toussaint; if any back has success in this game, I have a strange hunch that that back is Vincent Smith. Michigan will find itself in passing situations fairly often, and Smith could prove useful swinging out to the flat and/or filling into the zones which blitzing, hyperactive linebackers have just vacated in the middle of the field. Of course, the only problem with that is that Smith is of course tiny--see: Denard's INT against Air Force--and Denard being who he is will probably lead to some more dangerously errant passes. Throw it high enough but low enough for it to hit Smith in the fingertips and you're looking at a basic tip drill for the D.
Al Borges made a nice point in one of this week's pressers about his confusion regarding the fans' strange insistence that rushing yards only "count" when they come from a running back; against Notre Dame, Michigan has gotten it done on the ground with Denard and Denard alone. Is that type of strategy sustainable? Well, you tell me, 2010 and 2011 scoreboards. However, can it happen again? I'm not so sure.
The only scenario in which I see Michigan having some success on the ground with somebody not named Denard is, you guessed it, by successfully attacking Notre Dame's vulnerable, depleted secondary. Andrew Maxwell and his receivers were not able to take advantage of ND's secondary despite having 8+ defenders in the box with regularity, but I'd like to think that Michigan's QB and receivers are significantly more dangerous than their Spartan counterparts.
In short, yes, I am unironically saying that Michigan should go with the Alabama gameplan this week. ND's defense is several degrees inferior to Alabama's but is also quite possibly the best defense left of Michigan's schedule. I'm definitely not saying that we shouldn't run Denard much for fear of injury or something (as was the theory behind that strategy on 9/1), but running Denard left and right right off the bat is something that ND will be ready for.
Michigan Defense vs. Notre Dame Offense
Listening to the MGoPodcast this week, the consensus seems to be that Everett Golson is sort of in his ur-Denard (to borrow Matt Hinton's phraseology) stage as a quarterback: a not necessarily accurate guy who can make big plays but also mess up the basic ones. He is an exciting prospect, certainly more exciting than Rees and Dayne Crist were, but still very much in the inchoate stages of his development.
Like Denard, Golson is not exactly Cam Newton; at 6'0'' 185 (according to his official Notre Dame profile, at least), he's bound to be called things like "slight" and "willowy" and "probably-needs-to-eat-more". Regardless, he has flashed the playmaking ability that is giving me some bad flashbacks of the 2004 Ohio State game in which a young Troy Smith had himself a day against a favored Michigan team. Needless to say, we have to hope that when Notre Dame drops back to pass, Golson's arms turns into a Ramen noodle or something and that Michigan's can mitigate the lack of a formidable pass rush by keeping contain and not letting Golson run around a la Smith circa 2004.
In average passing situations--i.e. when Golson isn't just freestylin' and profilin'--Michigan should be okay. Notre Dame's receiving options don't really worry me, and I think our corners will be just fine. Tyler Eifert is the next guy in a long line of Notre Dame NFL quality tight ends, but Eifert seems to be more of the hyrbrid WR/TE Greg Olsen/Travis Beckum/etc. sort than a traditional pseudo-lineman with clubs for hands that only catch 1-yard play action passes in goal to go situations. Eifert can really play, and will be a matchup problem when going up against pretty much anybody in Michigan's back 7; strangely, however, Eifert did not record a reception against MSU last week.
Otherwise, there isn't a Michael Floyd in this group, although these are still ND recruits and thus capable of doing damage; after all, let's not forget that our starting corners are likely J.T. Floyd, a sometimes maligned former safety and Raymon Taylor, a still fairly green true sophomore. I have great faith in Taylor, and he's been my "guy who I'm irrationally excited about" since he got playing time early on in the 2011 season. Still, the thought of him playing the field corner spot on the road with a taller receiver like DaVaris Daniels across the way from him or a speedster like TJ Jones (who is most famous for doing this). He did also do this last year to make it 24-7, making the situation seem nearly hopeless for the Wolverines:
Similarly, Robby Toma is a tiny, white receiver and is therefore Wes Welker, so Michigan will need to keep an eye on him and Jones on screens and other slowly developing plays (e.g. the above drag route).
Unfortunately, like on offense, Michigan is at a disadvantage up front. Notre Dame has an experienced line that will look to run the ball with multiple backs, with Cierre Wood being the headliner and Theo Riddick and George Atkinson providing quality depth. The Irish didn't have an extremely prolific day running the ball, but they were actually fairly effective, with 27 carries going for 129 yards (4.8 YPC, with Golson's sacks taken out). Two things: a) compare that to how Michigan did against MSU last season on the ground and b) remember that Michigan's defensive front is nowhere near as good as MSU's, and you have two fairly worrisome things going on.
While Notre Dame's receiving corps doesn't necessarily have a star, it's not too difficult to imagine ND racking up a yardage total that equals or exceeds last year's 513. Unless the light suddenly turns on and Campbell, Washington, etc. can finally get any sort of push at the POA, Michigan is in for a long day. Even with a less refined passer in Golson in the game, Notre Dame will still threaten to drown Michigan in a tidal wave of yards and first downs. The Michigan defense's life preserver will once again have to be forced (and unforced) turnovers on ND's part.
What Needs To Happen, Fergodsakes
On offense:
- The Rex Grossman philosophy of offense. I'm pretty sure Al Borges is secretly a big Rex Grossman fan, and that will hopefully show on Saturday by going deep early and often. Remember the Northwestern game last season? Michigan needs to attack downfield just like they did against the Wildcats.
- Please no I-form running. This goes without saying, but Michigan spent an inordinate amount of time during UTL last season plugging away from under center with no success. I'm pretty sure we've all learned our lesson at this point, and it's pretty apparent that Michigan's interior trio is not moving anybody in traditional running sets.
- Accurate Denard, don't be a mirage por favor. Fairly self-explanatory, but if Michigan is going to mitigate the disparity in respective line strength, Denard will need to complete some passes from the pocket early on at every level (dumpoffs, intermediate routes, and deep). Like many teams these days, I expect DC Bob Diaco to keep his ends mostly in contain mode, so rolling Denard out could be asking for a lot of balls harmlessly falling to the turf after Tuitt or Lewis-Moore do their best Dikembe Mutombo impression.
- Like a broken record...say it with me: BEND BUT DON'T BREAK. This is just simply Michigan's calling card until Michigan's youngsters become upper classmen. ND will rack up yards, they will probably get at least one first down on a given drive more often that not, and they will probably score in or around their 2011 total.
- Show me time. With Desmond Morgan looking like he's back in the starting lineup, it's time for him and Kenny Demens to reassert themselves as the starters, especially on the heels of a recent charge by freshmen James Ross III and Joe Bolden. Morgan had a bit of a tough time against ND last season, and he's struggled to start the season and then had a "head problem" that kept him out last week. I would rather not have to see too much of Bolden and Ross on Saturday, and that means Morgan/Demens playing competently. Nobody's asking for big plays or anything--that's what Jake Ryan and Frank Clark are for--but not completely whiffing on the edge and being ready to take on blockers without getting engulfed would be nice things.
- BRING. THE. HEAT. Nobody needs to tell Mattison to be aggressive, but Michigan will need to bring the heat from time to time. Golson isn't actually end-of-2004-Troy-Smith yet, so Michigan can make some hay taking a page from MSU's playbook and bringing pressure through the middle, overwhelming ND's interior line, and allowing the secondary to handle their men in single coverage. Michigan will get beat from time to time, but I don't see any way around it: Michigan needs to force a turnover or two, and I don't see that happening without calling in an air strike or two. It is "unsound", sure, but desperate times and circumstances call for desperate measures. Hey, just remember that we were trying to do this with Greg Robinson not too long ago and you'll feel a bit better.
I, like you, have that faint glimmering hope that Denard will finish his career as ND's ultimate kryponite, and that he has one more soul-crushing, virtuoso performance in store for the Irish. With that said, attempting to accomplish something a third time takes that thing from mere coincidence to trend, and I'm not entirely sure that what we have here is some sort of underlying, fundamental trend. That is, I'm not sure that Michigan can beat Notre Dame, no matter what, just because we have Denard Robinson.
This is essentially a greatly scaled down version of the Alabama game. Notre Dame is not Alabama by any means, but they do have strong defensive talent in the front 7 and they do have a solid offensive line and a deep group of talented tailbacks. They will try to enforce their will on Michigan's decidedly average front, and Michigan has no choice but to hope for mistakes on ND's part from time to time...which, to be fair, ND has been happy to oblige the Wolverines with of late.
I know I said this last year, and I have no idea what ND's final record will be this season, but I think this ND team is better than this Michigan team. The same thing could have been said leading up to the 2009, 2010, and 2011 matchups; of course, that did not stop Michigan from winning each of those games. Michigan has discovered the alchemic route to gold, that being a little bit of luck and a lot of Denard Robinson.
As always, a "prediction" is a defraying of the sum of all predictions. That is, which outcome is the "most likely" to take place? Saying that one thing will happen does not preclude the belief that any other option is also possible.
With that said, I think we are bound for a 3+ hour drive to anticlimax. I don't see Michigan generating enough offense to keep up, and I don't think we are in for Denard Eviscerates Notre Dame Part III. Likewise, I don't see where the playmaking will come from in the Michigan defense (outside of Jake Ryan, that is).
In the end, I think Michigan goes to South Bend and takes a loss in a game that will essentially reflect what probably should have happened last season: Notre Dame accumulates around 500 yards or so and generally controls the game from start to finish. Everett Golson hasn't been around long enough to convince anybody that he is or isn't prone to committing silly turnovers, but it's obvious that he isn't as careless with the ball as Tommy Rees. As such, I don't think that Michigan can expect to be kept in the game with unforced and untimely errors from the ND side. Michigan takes an ugly and only cosmetically close loss in South Bend, a game that will come to be seen as the Godfather III of the Denard vs. Notre Dame saga.
Score: Michigan 17, Notre Dame 27
Wednesday, September 12, 2012
Miscellaneous Minutiae, 9/12/2012
We are playing UMass this week...here are some words. Since I don't have time to do a proper UMass preview due to an imminent move to the hamlet of Chicago, I will have to do it lightning round style. Here it is.
The game is over. No, really, it's already over. This is of course assuming that Michigan can contain...
That was your UMass preview: an unrelated video and a "Mike Cox is awesome haha not really" joke. Anyway, my friend Mike Taub will have the Who Are You? post up tomorrow as usual (I think).
"The kids call 'em ballers." I think this may have to be the new site tagline.
Duck season. The last few days have not been good ones for Oregon football, what with two senior starters, safety John Boyett and guard Carson York, both going down with injuries, ostensibly for the rest of the season. This is where I make a lazy joke about Phil Knight and Oregon's players being interchangeable cogs in the machine that is Oregon football and so on and so forth.
I spent the offseason convincing myself of this theory of interchangeability vis-a-vis Wisconsin football, and we've seen how that's turned out (although Wisconsin's offseason losses were obviously more significant than Oregon's losses). Still, for a team that isn't quite on the same level as Alabama or LSU in the starting 22--and certainly not depth-wise--any losses at all can become a damaging blow to a team's title hopes.
Columns that will be written every year for the rest of Time. Bryan Fischer tackles the primary driving force behind the Big Ten's ineptitude since the beginning of the new millennium. The verdict? Oh, don't pretend that you don't even know. Or maybe you don't know, because you are taking a long time to think about it, because you are sloooow:
It's 2012. I thought we had the "yes, the SEC is certainly faster in the front 7 but everywhere else it's too close to be statistically significant" line down pat. I guess not. On the bright side, Fischer does give our very own D. Funch some well-earned respect:
Yes, more "Big Ten is terrible" stuff. Spencer Hall uses the letter J in this week's Alphabetical to cover the Big Ten's week 2 struggles and to insert this note:
#WEHOPEYOUDANCE. Speaking of Spencer...join the #WEHOPEYOUDANCE revolution to get Bill Dance, TV angler and iconic TENNESSEE MAN, onto this week's College Gameday set as a celebrity picker. Due to the frightening power of social media, this will goal will be accomplished in absurdly short order (if it hasn't been done already). If you need any more reasons to do this, just know that Kenny Chesney has been chosen as the UT celebrity picker for this week's Gameday. Kenny Chesney.
If this works, this will be just another one of those moments where you have the marvel at the frivolous yet awesome power of the Internet.
More? Jamie Mac says nice things about the Big Ten...no, this is not a trick at all. Even the Wall Street Journal has a take on the Big Ten being terrible, as well as some unsolicited some advice. Zach at Maize n Brew takes a look at the key offensive and defensive plays from the Air Force game.
The game is over. No, really, it's already over. This is of course assuming that Michigan can contain...
That was your UMass preview: an unrelated video and a "Mike Cox is awesome haha not really" joke. Anyway, my friend Mike Taub will have the Who Are You? post up tomorrow as usual (I think).
"The kids call 'em ballers." I think this may have to be the new site tagline.
Duck season. The last few days have not been good ones for Oregon football, what with two senior starters, safety John Boyett and guard Carson York, both going down with injuries, ostensibly for the rest of the season. This is where I make a lazy joke about Phil Knight and Oregon's players being interchangeable cogs in the machine that is Oregon football and so on and so forth.
I spent the offseason convincing myself of this theory of interchangeability vis-a-vis Wisconsin football, and we've seen how that's turned out (although Wisconsin's offseason losses were obviously more significant than Oregon's losses). Still, for a team that isn't quite on the same level as Alabama or LSU in the starting 22--and certainly not depth-wise--any losses at all can become a damaging blow to a team's title hopes.
Columns that will be written every year for the rest of Time. Bryan Fischer tackles the primary driving force behind the Big Ten's ineptitude since the beginning of the new millennium. The verdict? Oh, don't pretend that you don't even know. Or maybe you don't know, because you are taking a long time to think about it, because you are sloooow:
The biggest issue for the conference is overall team speed. Sure, that's subjective. But it's accurate. From the safeties to the slot receivers, one can't compare how most Big Ten teams operate between the lines to their counterparts in the Big 12, Pac-12, SEC and, even in some cases, the ACC.I've always been sort of mystified by the fact that people will, without fail, chalk up the B1G's struggles to a lack of speed. Not only is it reductive, it doesn't really give the teams beating B1G squads their due credit. Football games are not won and lost solely because of team speed.
It's 2012. I thought we had the "yes, the SEC is certainly faster in the front 7 but everywhere else it's too close to be statistically significant" line down pat. I guess not. On the bright side, Fischer does give our very own D. Funch some well-earned respect:
Freshman of the week Devin Funchess, who became the Wolverines' first tight end to have 100+ yards receiving since 1997, is an example. He's big and physical but can still move down the field and in space with a reported 4.6 40-yard dash. Grabbing more players like him at positions like tight end is a start to being more competitive with programs from other leagues, and the Wolverines have been well on their way based on their recent recruiting classes.
Dear Michigan: recruit more players that are big and fast and talented. This recruiting advice has been completely pro bono on my part. You're welcome.
Grasping at straws. For the people staring at the Alabama-WKU box score and wondering how the Hilltoppers were somehow able to contain the Crimson Tide ground game much more effectively than Michigan did, here's one thing to make you feel a little bit better:
On Monday, two days after a 35-0 victory over Western Kentucky, Lester acknowledged that the Crimson Tide wasn't as focused last week as it should have been.
Why?
“I would say it was because Western Kentucky is a smaller team," Lester said. "I think a lot of guys didn’t look at them as seriously as they did games like Michigan or Arkansas. A lot of guys weren’t motivated like in a big game. We were coming off a big game and have a big game coming up, so a lot of guys weren’t motivated.”
Obviously, "not being focused" for Alabama still yields a shutout and a comfortable 35-point victory. So, good news everyone: if Alabama doesn't try, you have a very real shot at scoring zero points.
It's one week in a very long season, but don't think Jim Delany is not at this instant crafting the most carefully worded full-page ad in the Birmingham News congratulating Alabama on their continued football success while also slyly mentioning the state's dismal high school dropout rates.Not that the above isn't probably true, but, to add to the sentiment about "team speed" above: sometimes I get the feeling that college football commentary is just one big elaborate Mad Lib.
If this works, this will be just another one of those moments where you have the marvel at the frivolous yet awesome power of the Internet.
More? Jamie Mac says nice things about the Big Ten...no, this is not a trick at all. Even the Wall Street Journal has a take on the Big Ten being terrible, as well as some unsolicited some advice. Zach at Maize n Brew takes a look at the key offensive and defensive plays from the Air Force game.
Friday, September 7, 2012
Air Force Preview: Mulligan
Time: 3:30 ET (ABC)
Place: Michigan Stadium--Ann Arbor, MI
Line: Michigan -21.5
Mood: How about a do-over, eh?
I spent the offseason searching the Internet for information on this year's Alabama team in preparation for last Saturday's game. I even took the time to break down each Crimson Tide position group, and cited Alabama-centric links in a significant number of posts here throughout the summer. When Alabama's DeAndrew White reeled in a touchdown pass after Courtney Avery slipped, I'm pretty sure I'm the only Michigan fan that thought, "Hey, that's the guy that scored two touchdowns against Vandy last season! Wait, this is terrible." Various Alabama fans even commented that I wrote the most comprehensive preview of 2012 Alabama football by anyone on the Internet.
I only mention this to say that this was clearly an enormous waste of time, since, deep down, we all knew that what happened was inevitable. Like the coaching staff, I will now have to shift gears from thinking about Alabama all summer in order to give to our other non-conference opponents some thought before we hit the familiar territory that is the Big Ten schedule.
The greatest things about this week are: a) We are playing Air Force and b) Air Force is not Alabama. Nobody is Alabama.
Air Force is just the sort of team that, when played right after a game like the one we just played, gives legs to tired sports platitudes about "trap games" and "hangovers." Air Force is not a particularly talented or athletic team, but they are the type of team that can be incredibly annoying, kind of like that one hitter in the lineup that always forces your ace to throw 10 pitches before launching a duck snort (that's a Hawk Harrelson-ism) into right field. The Falcons are that hitter in the context of Michigan's season. Why did the cleanup hitter (Alabama) bat first? I don't know, maybe you should ask DAVE BRANDON AHAHHKKSIH. Okay, enough about baseball and faux DB rage. Let's wring our hands about the offensive line and talk about ASSIGNMENT FOOTBALL and chop blocking and stuff.
Michigan Offense vs. Air Force Defense
Per Paul Myerberg, Air Force returns a mere two starters; however, one of those two, safety Anthony Wooding, is no longer on the team. Also, keep in mind that this sort of turnover is not uncommon for the service academies, as they are effectively exempt from the NCAA's 85 scholarship cap. This doesn't mean that they'll be good or that all is well, but extreme turnover is a fact of life for the academies.
As Ace detailed on Wednesday, the Falcons play the increasingly popular 3-4. Does that matter? Honestly, probably not except insofar as it's not something that Michigan sees in the Big Ten. On the bright side, the team we just played runs the 3-4, which was good tactical practice for this week. However, going up against Saban's 3-4 before facing Air Force's iteration of the same defense is like wearing ankle weights all day only to shed them and then challenge a toddler to a foot race.
If you're into that sort of thing, Air Force was 78th in defensive FEI last season, right between Ole Miss and Purdue in the rankings. Against the tougher teams on the schedule--ND, San Diego State, Boise State, and TCU--they gave up an average of 43 points per game. This is not a good defense, and the fact that they gave up 21 to Idaho State underscores that fact. The Bengals (that's Idaho State) managed to pass for a whopping 365 yards in the process (6.9 YPA). ISU quarterback Kevin Yost went a ridiculous 41/52, throwing two touchdowns to zero interceptions. This is kind of weird, as the Pre-Snap Read preview of Air Force notes that the Falcons have only given up 300+ passing in a game 8 times in the Calhoun era (i.e. 2007-present). The fact that they did just that against Idaho State might signal that something is up with this Air Force defense.
Air Force did a good job of stopping ISU's attack in the first half, but the second half did not start as well. Yost led three 75-yard touchdown drives in a row to start the second half. Needless to say, Michigan will probably be able to pick up a few more explosive plays than ISU did (especially with Fitz's return in mind), but will definitely be able to engage in a couple old school 8-minute, 10-play drives. This is confirmed by the pictures from last year's ND game that Ace included in this week's FFFF post. Welcome to Bend-but-don't-breaks-ville, USA. Population: the Air Force defense. This week will be the complete opposite of last week in terms of press coverage from the corners. I'd put the odds of this happening to Roy Roundtree this week...
...at approximately -1,842%. Roundtree will have all the time in the world to think of that hilarious joke he's going to tell after the game, right before running that quick slant for a guaranteed 8+ yards. Jeremy Gallon will have a field day in the YAC department against this defense. I look forward to seeing him turn that throwback screen into GOLD, JERRY, GOLD on multiple occasions.
The gameplan this week is fairly simple and not nearly as laced with fatalism as last week's was. Air Force got torn up through the air by Idaho State, and I think that this will end up serving as a nice confidence booster for Denard in the passing game. Denard will have gargantuan windows to hit and the pass rush should be practically non-existent.
Fortunately, Borges is not forced to come out throwing this time around. Assuming that Toussaint starts, Michigan will try to give him some looks early on. Vincent Smith should be able to make some hay in the pass-catching game; with the AF defense backed up like the offense has cooties, Smith will finger gunz his way to many an open look in the flats.
To make matters worse for AF, two of their top defensive players, linebacker Jamil Cooks and safety Anthony Wooding, will not be participating. To make a long story short, AF is too unathletic and too small to pose any sort of danger to Michigan's offense. The only way that Michigan runs into trouble is if: a) Denard et al turn the ball over, which is pretty much what AF is banking on you to do or b) all those open spaces and endless possibilities lead to an offensive gameplan that's a little too cute.
Michigan Defense vs. Air Force Offense
While the Falcons' defense is somewhat of a disaster, the offense is something worth consideration, especially for a Michigan team that is [CLICHES REDACTED]. You know this by now, but Air Force runs the triple option, an arcane relic of a simpler time (a simpler time which still exists in certain places, e.g. Atlanta, GA).
Here's Pre-Snap Read on AF quarterback Connor Dietz:
Still, Dietz is a senior and has been around, biding his time until being handed the keys to the old Model T that is the triple option offense. In 2011, the Falcons were a very respectable 32nd in OFEI, sandwiched between pass-happy Texas Tech and run-happy Nebraska in the rankings. As you would expect, Air Force ranks very highly in the "methodical drive" metric as well, coming in at 5th in the country. Naturally, fellow option schools Navy and Georgia Tech come in at #1 and #2, respectively. This category measures the percentage of drives that go for 10+ plays...fairly straightforward.
In a nutshell, as long as something completely ridiculous doesn't happen, like Courtney Avery falling down on one of Dietz's 10 passing attempts, the Falcons are not going to be lighting Michigan up with explosive plays. This is pretty much the sort of game that a guy like Jordan Kovacs lives for.
This will simply be a test of discipline and the ability to avoid [SPORTS CLICHES REDACTED]. There's a reason almost no programs with any sort of big name cachet run the option anymore: teams that don't aren't very talented. It's an offense predicated on precision and unyielding dedication to a system, which of course makes the triple option a natural fit for the service academies.
Obviously, this is not Alabama's OL we're talking about here. Air Force's linemen could probably be tight ends at Michigan, but that doesn't matter if Michigan's much larger defenders are being cut to the ground. When you're cut to the ground, you're useless. If, say, Craig Roh gets cut, it doesn't matter how big he is or how much weight he's added in the offseason: if you're on the ground, you're about as useful to the defensive effort as a bowl of Cinnamon Toast Crunch, just chilling there on the field where a defender should be.
As far as personnel goes, Air Force will of course pass infrequently and distribute its many carries quite liberally. Last week, the Falcons split 58 carries between 11 players. That many players won't carry it this week for the simple fact that AF is not going to be in blowout run-out-the-clock mode against Michigan like they were against Idaho State last week*, but Michigan still needs to be vigilant. Dietz carried it 7 times last week, and minuscule tailback Cody Getz led the way with 17. Fullback Mike DeWitt pitched in 11 carries of his own. Look at how triple option-y that triple option is!
As someone who played fullback in high school for a little bit, I have to agree with Ace: option coaches love giving it to the fullback like Al Borges loves not answering questions about bubble screens. You don't need to be a coach to understand why that is the case. The fullback has the easiest path to positive yardage, and a successful give read almost guarantees at least three or four yards (if you have a fullback worth anything). DeWitt didn't seem to have a great day last week, but I'm guessing that Coach Calhoun is aware of Michigan's issues on the interior. AF might be looking to feed DeWitt early on until Campbell and whoever else is hanging out on the inside can prove that they can stop it.
*Uh, I hope not?
What Needs to Happen, Fergodsakes
On defense:
After last Saturday, I can't even begin to tell you how nice it will be to see Michigan run out and touch the banner. As Borges noted in his presser earlier in the week, Oregon recovered nicely after getting Rick James smacked in the face to start the season. Michigan is not last year's Oregon team, but they can still go on a pretty nice run the rest of the way. I still think that Michigan is a good if very flawed team, and the Alabama game's result has a way of distorting our understanding of this team's potential.
This game could be a very good or a very bad thing for this team. The potential is there for a lethargic, frustrating effort, kind of like a higher scoring version of the 2002 Utah game. At the same time, there is not much to this team Air Force team. A strong collective defensive effort and a crisply executed offensive gameplan that doesn't reveal too much could serve as a galvanizing force, a pick-me-up of sorts as the team tries to distance itself from the memory of the Cowboys Classic.
I will once again draw the comparison to last year's EMU game. EMU QB Alex Gillett passed five times all day, but the Eagles had some pretty substantial success on the ground early on. Michigan will likely take a quarter or so to gain its bearing vis-a-vis the triple option, and if Toussaint doesn't start (I'm writing this on Wednesday, but I'm assuming that he will) then who knows what we'll get from the non-Denard ball carriers.
I get the feeling that AF will have a decent amount of success on the ground in the first half. The Falcons score a touchdown on a long drive in the first quarter but are kept out of the endzone the rest of the way. They do get close enough to kick a convert a couple field goal attempts. EMU ran for 207 yards at 4.5 YPC on a defensive line featuring Mike Martin and Ryan Van Bergen, so Air Force probably ends up in that neighborhood of run game production against Team 133's defense.
In the end, however, AF simply doesn't have the athletes to hang with Gallon, Toussaint, and Denard (although I doubt that Borges will want to run him like he did against EMU last year). I am also looking forward to at least one impressive instance of raw wide receiving talent from Devin Gardner.
Score: Michigan 35, Air Force 13
Place: Michigan Stadium--Ann Arbor, MI
Line: Michigan -21.5
Mood: How about a do-over, eh?
Remember this game? This week is going to be that, plus the triple option.
(HT: Mike DeSimone)
The Exposition I spent the offseason searching the Internet for information on this year's Alabama team in preparation for last Saturday's game. I even took the time to break down each Crimson Tide position group, and cited Alabama-centric links in a significant number of posts here throughout the summer. When Alabama's DeAndrew White reeled in a touchdown pass after Courtney Avery slipped, I'm pretty sure I'm the only Michigan fan that thought, "Hey, that's the guy that scored two touchdowns against Vandy last season! Wait, this is terrible." Various Alabama fans even commented that I wrote the most comprehensive preview of 2012 Alabama football by anyone on the Internet.
I only mention this to say that this was clearly an enormous waste of time, since, deep down, we all knew that what happened was inevitable. Like the coaching staff, I will now have to shift gears from thinking about Alabama all summer in order to give to our other non-conference opponents some thought before we hit the familiar territory that is the Big Ten schedule.
The greatest things about this week are: a) We are playing Air Force and b) Air Force is not Alabama. Nobody is Alabama.
Air Force is just the sort of team that, when played right after a game like the one we just played, gives legs to tired sports platitudes about "trap games" and "hangovers." Air Force is not a particularly talented or athletic team, but they are the type of team that can be incredibly annoying, kind of like that one hitter in the lineup that always forces your ace to throw 10 pitches before launching a duck snort (that's a Hawk Harrelson-ism) into right field. The Falcons are that hitter in the context of Michigan's season. Why did the cleanup hitter (Alabama) bat first? I don't know, maybe you should ask DAVE BRANDON AHAHHKKSIH. Okay, enough about baseball and faux DB rage. Let's wring our hands about the offensive line and talk about ASSIGNMENT FOOTBALL and chop blocking and stuff.
Michigan Offense vs. Air Force Defense
Per Paul Myerberg, Air Force returns a mere two starters; however, one of those two, safety Anthony Wooding, is no longer on the team. Also, keep in mind that this sort of turnover is not uncommon for the service academies, as they are effectively exempt from the NCAA's 85 scholarship cap. This doesn't mean that they'll be good or that all is well, but extreme turnover is a fact of life for the academies.
As Ace detailed on Wednesday, the Falcons play the increasingly popular 3-4. Does that matter? Honestly, probably not except insofar as it's not something that Michigan sees in the Big Ten. On the bright side, the team we just played runs the 3-4, which was good tactical practice for this week. However, going up against Saban's 3-4 before facing Air Force's iteration of the same defense is like wearing ankle weights all day only to shed them and then challenge a toddler to a foot race.
If you're into that sort of thing, Air Force was 78th in defensive FEI last season, right between Ole Miss and Purdue in the rankings. Against the tougher teams on the schedule--ND, San Diego State, Boise State, and TCU--they gave up an average of 43 points per game. This is not a good defense, and the fact that they gave up 21 to Idaho State underscores that fact. The Bengals (that's Idaho State) managed to pass for a whopping 365 yards in the process (6.9 YPA). ISU quarterback Kevin Yost went a ridiculous 41/52, throwing two touchdowns to zero interceptions. This is kind of weird, as the Pre-Snap Read preview of Air Force notes that the Falcons have only given up 300+ passing in a game 8 times in the Calhoun era (i.e. 2007-present). The fact that they did just that against Idaho State might signal that something is up with this Air Force defense.
Air Force did a good job of stopping ISU's attack in the first half, but the second half did not start as well. Yost led three 75-yard touchdown drives in a row to start the second half. Needless to say, Michigan will probably be able to pick up a few more explosive plays than ISU did (especially with Fitz's return in mind), but will definitely be able to engage in a couple old school 8-minute, 10-play drives. This is confirmed by the pictures from last year's ND game that Ace included in this week's FFFF post. Welcome to Bend-but-don't-breaks-ville, USA. Population: the Air Force defense. This week will be the complete opposite of last week in terms of press coverage from the corners. I'd put the odds of this happening to Roy Roundtree this week...
Roy Roundtree's just takin' a little nap, no worries
...at approximately -1,842%. Roundtree will have all the time in the world to think of that hilarious joke he's going to tell after the game, right before running that quick slant for a guaranteed 8+ yards. Jeremy Gallon will have a field day in the YAC department against this defense. I look forward to seeing him turn that throwback screen into GOLD, JERRY, GOLD on multiple occasions.
The gameplan this week is fairly simple and not nearly as laced with fatalism as last week's was. Air Force got torn up through the air by Idaho State, and I think that this will end up serving as a nice confidence booster for Denard in the passing game. Denard will have gargantuan windows to hit and the pass rush should be practically non-existent.
Fortunately, Borges is not forced to come out throwing this time around. Assuming that Toussaint starts, Michigan will try to give him some looks early on. Vincent Smith should be able to make some hay in the pass-catching game; with the AF defense backed up like the offense has cooties, Smith will finger gunz his way to many an open look in the flats.
To make matters worse for AF, two of their top defensive players, linebacker Jamil Cooks and safety Anthony Wooding, will not be participating. To make a long story short, AF is too unathletic and too small to pose any sort of danger to Michigan's offense. The only way that Michigan runs into trouble is if: a) Denard et al turn the ball over, which is pretty much what AF is banking on you to do or b) all those open spaces and endless possibilities lead to an offensive gameplan that's a little too cute.
Michigan Defense vs. Air Force Offense
While the Falcons' defense is somewhat of a disaster, the offense is something worth consideration, especially for a Michigan team that is [CLICHES REDACTED]. You know this by now, but Air Force runs the triple option, an arcane relic of a simpler time (a simpler time which still exists in certain places, e.g. Atlanta, GA).
Here's Pre-Snap Read on AF quarterback Connor Dietz:
As for this offense, it will help to have three experienced contributors in the backfield. One is senior Connor Dietz, who steps in at quarterback after spending the last three years backing up Tim Jefferson. Dietz has earned extensive action since 2009, even going toe-to-toe with Jefferson that fall for the starting role; while Jefferson won the competition, starting in each of the next three years, Dietz is no neophyte – he knows this offense as well as any player on this roster.Last week against Idaho State, Ditez had the sort of ultra-efficient day that option coaches dream about in between updating their operating systems and oiling their metallic hinges (yeah, I'm talking about you Paul Johnson). He went 8/11 for 142 yards, good for a hilarious 12.9 YPA. That's what happens when you rush for 484 yards on 8.3 YPC. That is also what happens when you play Idaho State.
Still, Dietz is a senior and has been around, biding his time until being handed the keys to the old Model T that is the triple option offense. In 2011, the Falcons were a very respectable 32nd in OFEI, sandwiched between pass-happy Texas Tech and run-happy Nebraska in the rankings. As you would expect, Air Force ranks very highly in the "methodical drive" metric as well, coming in at 5th in the country. Naturally, fellow option schools Navy and Georgia Tech come in at #1 and #2, respectively. This category measures the percentage of drives that go for 10+ plays...fairly straightforward.
In a nutshell, as long as something completely ridiculous doesn't happen, like Courtney Avery falling down on one of Dietz's 10 passing attempts, the Falcons are not going to be lighting Michigan up with explosive plays. This is pretty much the sort of game that a guy like Jordan Kovacs lives for.
This will simply be a test of discipline and the ability to avoid [SPORTS CLICHES REDACTED]. There's a reason almost no programs with any sort of big name cachet run the option anymore: teams that don't aren't very talented. It's an offense predicated on precision and unyielding dedication to a system, which of course makes the triple option a natural fit for the service academies.
Obviously, this is not Alabama's OL we're talking about here. Air Force's linemen could probably be tight ends at Michigan, but that doesn't matter if Michigan's much larger defenders are being cut to the ground. When you're cut to the ground, you're useless. If, say, Craig Roh gets cut, it doesn't matter how big he is or how much weight he's added in the offseason: if you're on the ground, you're about as useful to the defensive effort as a bowl of Cinnamon Toast Crunch, just chilling there on the field where a defender should be.
As far as personnel goes, Air Force will of course pass infrequently and distribute its many carries quite liberally. Last week, the Falcons split 58 carries between 11 players. That many players won't carry it this week for the simple fact that AF is not going to be in blowout run-out-the-clock mode against Michigan like they were against Idaho State last week*, but Michigan still needs to be vigilant. Dietz carried it 7 times last week, and minuscule tailback Cody Getz led the way with 17. Fullback Mike DeWitt pitched in 11 carries of his own. Look at how triple option-y that triple option is!
As someone who played fullback in high school for a little bit, I have to agree with Ace: option coaches love giving it to the fullback like Al Borges loves not answering questions about bubble screens. You don't need to be a coach to understand why that is the case. The fullback has the easiest path to positive yardage, and a successful give read almost guarantees at least three or four yards (if you have a fullback worth anything). DeWitt didn't seem to have a great day last week, but I'm guessing that Coach Calhoun is aware of Michigan's issues on the interior. AF might be looking to feed DeWitt early on until Campbell and whoever else is hanging out on the inside can prove that they can stop it.
*Uh, I hope not?
What Needs to Happen, Fergodsakes
On defense:
- Clichés about defending the option that are nevertheless very true. Don't get cut. Don't get cut. Also, don't get cut.
- Clean up the tackling, por favor. Last week, we all stared on with our mouths agape as even Jordan Kovacs missed tackles. Well, the thing is...even normally sound tacklers miss them when players like T.J. Yeldon, Jalston Fowler, and Eddie Lacy are carrying the ball behind a quasi-NFL offensive line. That won't be the case this week, obviously. AF is in the methodical drive school of offense, like all option teams. Don't give them any big plays, because Air Force does not have the athletes to create them on their own.
- Paging the Ministry of the Interior. Hello Will Campbell, Quinton Washington, Richard Ash, Ondre Pipkins, and, according to last week's starting lineup, Craig Roh (?). This is your chance to throw people around like you're in high school again. Of course, AF knows this and will be trying to avoid this outcome via the ignominious maneuver known as the cut block.
- No freebies, Denard. There is really no reason for Denard to throw a pick like the one he did to C.J. Mosley last week. AF will give him time, simply because they do not have the talent in the back to do any pressing or much blitzing. Still, Denard did throw a pick against EMU last year, so anything is possible. Air Force cannot hang unless Michigan makes mistakes.
- The Michael Scott School of Management. KISS (Keep It Simple Stupid). It's tempting to get all crazy in the head against a team like this, one whose corners back away from receivers like the stretch of land between them is actually lava. It might not be pretty--again, think 2011 EMU game--but Michigan will grind out two or three longer drives and a couple shorter fields via defense/special teams. That should be enough. Let Fitz carry most of the load in the running game and let Denard dink and dunk on screens and wide open slants. Michigan would have to be incredibly unlucky or stupid to not score 35 points this week.
- Those guys are not Alabama so please block them better than you did last week. Pretty self-explanatory. Schofield got burnt to a crisp, Lewan was 2010 Lewan, and the interior was bullied back as expected. If Michigan doesn't move that line with ease this week, that almost universal 9-3 preseason prediction will be looking mighty optimistic. No penalties from Lewan, a bounceback performance from Schofield, a couple crushing pulling blocks from Barnum, and competence from Mealer and Omameh...that's all I ask.
After last Saturday, I can't even begin to tell you how nice it will be to see Michigan run out and touch the banner. As Borges noted in his presser earlier in the week, Oregon recovered nicely after getting Rick James smacked in the face to start the season. Michigan is not last year's Oregon team, but they can still go on a pretty nice run the rest of the way. I still think that Michigan is a good if very flawed team, and the Alabama game's result has a way of distorting our understanding of this team's potential.
This game could be a very good or a very bad thing for this team. The potential is there for a lethargic, frustrating effort, kind of like a higher scoring version of the 2002 Utah game. At the same time, there is not much to this team Air Force team. A strong collective defensive effort and a crisply executed offensive gameplan that doesn't reveal too much could serve as a galvanizing force, a pick-me-up of sorts as the team tries to distance itself from the memory of the Cowboys Classic.
I will once again draw the comparison to last year's EMU game. EMU QB Alex Gillett passed five times all day, but the Eagles had some pretty substantial success on the ground early on. Michigan will likely take a quarter or so to gain its bearing vis-a-vis the triple option, and if Toussaint doesn't start (I'm writing this on Wednesday, but I'm assuming that he will) then who knows what we'll get from the non-Denard ball carriers.
I get the feeling that AF will have a decent amount of success on the ground in the first half. The Falcons score a touchdown on a long drive in the first quarter but are kept out of the endzone the rest of the way. They do get close enough to kick a convert a couple field goal attempts. EMU ran for 207 yards at 4.5 YPC on a defensive line featuring Mike Martin and Ryan Van Bergen, so Air Force probably ends up in that neighborhood of run game production against Team 133's defense.
In the end, however, AF simply doesn't have the athletes to hang with Gallon, Toussaint, and Denard (although I doubt that Borges will want to run him like he did against EMU last year). I am also looking forward to at least one impressive instance of raw wide receiving talent from Devin Gardner.
Score: Michigan 35, Air Force 13
Friday, August 31, 2012
Alabama Preview: Banking On The One
Brief note: I will attempt ("attempt" being the key word) to have these preview posts up on Friday each week around lunchtime. The grad school thing may prevent that from happening, but we'll see how it goes. I should be good to go for about the first month...after that, things might get a little dicier.
The Exposition
Time: 8 ET, ABC
Place: Cowboys Stadium--Arlington, TX
Line: Alabama -13.5
Mood: !!!!!!!+unceasing anxiety
I spent my high school years in Alabama, coinciding exactly with the Mike Shula era. This was a few months after the Mike Price fiasco, not to mention Dennis Franchione's controversial departure for Texas A&M a few months before that. Add NCAA sanctions to the mix and a new head coach in Shula* (who had been a career NFL guy to that point, and never a head coach), and you could say that things were not turning up Milhouse.
At the same time, my high school years as a Michigan fan were about as good as you could ask of your program within a 4-year window. John Navarre went out and won a Big Ten championship in 2003 to spite his squawking detractors, and Chad Henne rode piggybacked on Braylon Edwards's back in 2004 en route to another one. The 2005 season, "The Year of Infinite Pain", according to Brian, was a paper cut compared to the total system breakdown that was the Rich Rodriguez era. My final season as a high schooler was the 2006 season, of which I don't need to tell you about.
Michigan going 0-4 in its bowl games during that time put a bit of a damper on things, but it was an all around great time to be a Michigan fan, especially one living in Alabama. In retrospect, it seems almost unthinkable for Alabama to have a 4-win season and two 6-win seasons in a 4-year span, but it happened between 2003 and 2006.
Enter Nick Saban, and that's enough of that whole losing and not being mistake-free cybernetic organisms thing. Say what you will about oversigning, but there is no denying that Saban is one of the best defensive minds in the game. In five seasons, Saban has compiled a 55-12 record; half of those losses came in his first season. Simply put, Alabama has been the best team in the country since Saban arrived in Tuscaloosa.
Needless to say, in nine years, a whole lot has changed; this isn't 2003, anymore.
*Amusingly, he is now the QB coach for the Carolina Panthers, coaching one Cam Newton. Life has a funny way of working out sometimes.
Michigan Offense vs. Alabama Defense
A note: I started writing this on Tuesday. I am assuming that Toussaint is not going to play, for what it's worth. The same goes for Frank Clark.
It's hard to decide which Michigan unit has a better chance of getting anything done in this game. As I detailed throughout the summer, this Alabama team is about as talented and athletic as you would expect. So, what's the catch? There is a catch, right?
Maybe, maybe not. Ask any Alabama fan about their defense and they will talk to you about RELOADING and 5-star recruits everywhere and how this ain't 2010 (when Alabama had to replace a similar amount of premium defensive talent and then went on to have a "disappointing" 3-loss season). Well, most of it is in fact true. Alabama is talented, and at certain positions, they will rotate guys in and out with relative ease.
However, some Alabama fans are just being unreasonable. I'm sorry. That's not to say that Alabama's defense won't be good (keep in mind that that 2010 defense was still very good) because they absolutely will, or that a defense that is a cut or two below last year's wouldn't still hold Michigan to a relatively low point total.
The simple fact is, no, Alabama fans, your defense will not be as good as last year's was. Then again, last year's defense was historically good, not just good in the context of the 2011 season. Some slippage can be reasonably expected, especially when replacing 7 defensive starters. Yes, I do understand that some of the players replacing these guys have seen some game action (for example, starting corner Dee Milliner), but not all of these guys have gotten meaningful playing time. Adrian Hubbard at SLB, Quinton Dial (was a rotational type guy last year that will be a half-starter along with Ed Stinson at one end position), Deion Belue is a JUCO guy in his first season in Tuscaloosa and a starting corner, Vinnie Sunseri is a true sophomore who did play some last season but has enormous shoes to fill at strong safety, etc.
As you probably know by know, Nick Saban is an evil genius whose defenses run with Gradgrindian efficiency; it's going to be "hard times"** for Michigan indeed if the OL consistently lets rushers through en route to clean shots on Denard. That cannot happen, especially early on in the contest. Nick Saban's Alabama defenses are known for their base 3-4, but Alabama is a fairly "multiple" team. The will also likely throw the 4-3 at us, the 5-2 (with two "Jack"*** linebackers on the field at once), and passing downs have their own special wrinkles for nickle packages. Alabama will throw a lot of different things, and Borges has ostensibly does his homework on all of them. That said, being ready to combat and execute these defensive looks is another battle entirely. FWIW, here's a useful video of Saban explaining the basis for the "Star" and "Money" positions in Alabama's nickel and dime looks.
Some Crimson Tide defenders to focus on at each level of the defense: 6'4'' 320 lb. senior NG Jesse Williams (he's a position switcher moving over from end, although he did play nose in his JUCO days), 6'2'' 232 lb. junior CJ Mosley at ILB (he's not nominally a starter but he basically is based on how much he will actually play, especially against a spread spread-ish team like Michigan), and 6'0'' 215 sophomore strong saftey Vinnie Sunseri (son of a coach!). Mosley in particular is a player to pay attention to when he's on the field. He's not technically a starter, but he's probably Alabama's best linebacker, and he will be on the field in passing situations. He's also Alabama's fastest backer, so expect him to do a lot of this when Denard does dump it off:
Don't get me wrong, I love Vincent Smith, but I'm not sure he will be able to shake Mosley on the edge. However, I think a guy like Justice Hayes could do some damage in this capacity, although that is admittedly based purely on recruiting hype at this point.
If Michigan (i.e. Barnum+Omameh/Mealer) cannot contain the Balrog that is Jesse Williams from getting into the backfield or render him irrelevant by attacking the edges and taking our chances there, it's going to be a long, long day. Remember this picture?
With the pressure that Alabama is sure to bring with the Jack linebacker, bringing Sunseri down into the box, and all other sorts of defensive sorcery, things could very well look like the picture above. I think Denard would agree with me: that is not something we want to happen. Alabama has spent the last few weeks talking about how they're coming for Denard, and why wouldn't they? Unless propelled by magic (4th quarter of the ND game, the entire VT game), if you key on Denard and force him to pass, things probably get ugly. Obviously, that is easier said than done, since not every team has the pure talent to force Michigan's hand in that way. Alabama, like Michigan State, certainly does.
Analogy time! Hoke:defensive line coaching::Nick Saban:defensive backs. Saban and DC Kirby Smart have supreme confidence in their DBs, which is not unreasonable given the talent they have at their disposal and the fact that Saban might be the best and most meticulous teacher of DB technique in the country. It's his special pet project amongst all other coaching duties, much like the DL is to Hoke.
A perfect example of this confidence is the Cover 1 Robber defense, which Chris Brown of Smart Football discussed in his book released earlier this summer (and summarized excellently by this MGoBlog diary). Alabama will put its corners in man coverage with regularity, and this decision is only strengthened by the fact that Michigan's top two receivers are Roy Roundtree and Jeremy Gallon. No offense to either player, but I imagine that neither exactly strikes fear in Saban's robot ersatz heart.
Want to see the Cover 1 Robber in action? You have seen it before, and I apologize in advance for this. If you'll remember, I recently linked to this excellent post from The Only Colors on the now infamous Double A-Gap blitz. Therein, a discussion of one variant, the Cover 1 Robber, was explained in detail. Guess which play that was:
As surprisingly complicated and variegated as that particular blitz is, you can be sure that Alabama has many like this one lined up and ready to go. Denard et al need to have their hot route cues down pat, or the above will very likely occur at some point.
I don't think that Michigan will have much success attacking the middle with the ground game...at least early on. Alabama stuffed everyone, even LSU's paleolithic but effective power running game, and I think that we should expect different results. I don't think that Borges is foolish enough to do this, but if Michigan lines up in the I and attempts to run any sort of traditional power run, you can bet that thousands of Michigan fans will all be throwing up their hands in unison. Unless we're in a short yardage or goal line situation, Michigan cannot afford to waste precious plays by plugging away up the middle. This isn't the 1990s: lightning bolts will not rain down on your head if you don't run to set up the pass.
The problem with that is Michigan has Denard Robinson, who, aside from being a transcendent runner with a fantastic smile, has had some basic mechanical issues in the passing game, not mention trouble reading defenses and reacting to pressure. All of these things do sound like a recipe for disaster against a defense like Alabama's, but we have to assume that Denard has improved throughout the offseason. Playing like he did against Nebraska and Ohio State would be a start, but that's all it would be. The same gaping holes that were there against the Huskers and Buckeyes likely won't be there against Alabama, and if they are they will be closing up a little more quickly.
So, what are the options? Really, there aren't many that don't involve pinpoint execution and, quite frankly, not getting blown back at the point of attack. If either happen, it's over. An UTL-esque miracle is just not going to happen against this team.
**ELITIST REFERENCES PAWLLLL
***FYI, the JLB is basically the pass-rushing linebacker; last year, it was Courtney Upshaw.
Michigan Defense vs. Alabama Offense
We've had a couple relatively surprising moves on the defensive side of the ball come to light in the last week. First, Quinton Washington will be playing at the nose position and starting. Next to him is William Campbell, who was going to be play nose until the coaches eventually came to the realization that Black at the 3-tech just wasn't going to work. As such, BWC to the 3-tech and Black back to WDE it is. We won't truly know what the two-deep is actually like until the games begin, but, for now, Black's move is one more obstacle between Mario Ojemudia having to take the field against an Alabama team with a Brobdingnagian offensive line.
Speaking of the offensive line: they are huge. I previewed this position group way back in early April, and not much has changed (actually, nothing has). If you didn't already know, 2011 All-American LT Barrett Jones made the move to center to make room for Cyrus Kouandjio, which speaks to how highly the coaches think of the latter. This is the second move that Jones has mode (he was once a guard), so while position switches are often uncomfortable propositions, Jones has always been lauded as a smart guy and should be more than alright.
Alabama has a bevy of talented tailbacks and wide receivers. Like the secondary and linebackers, experience is the primary issue with most of these guys, although they are by no means completely green. None of these guys are Trent Richardson or Julio Jones, but they might not need to be if the ground game has worn Michigan down as I'm sure Alabama is intending to do.
You probably know about Eddie Lacy by now. He was Alabama's #3 in 2010, Richardson's backup last season, and should be the feature back this season. A pesky injury kept him out of most of spring ball, IIRC (including the A-Day scrimmage), and has still seemed to be banged up as recently as the last week or two. I linked to a video of him doing a short drill with a fairly significant amount of tape on his ankle, which may or may not mean anything.
Saban has used the words "day-to-day", and the fact that he'd be "ready to go in 5 or 6 days"...he said this on August 18th. The more time that passes, the more I get the feeling that he won't be 100% on 9/1. If that is the case, our old friend RS freshman Dee Hart and true freshman TJ Yeldon become the next guys in line. Jalston Fowler, Alabama's #3 last year and the Tide's top mooseback, appears to have made the move to H-back, where walk-on Kelly Johnson has won the starting role in what can be considered the shocker of fall camp (it hasn't been that exciting of a fall camp). Johnson has big shoes to fill, as the H-back is a very important player in Alabama's offense, which should basically stay the same despite the hiring of former Washington OC Doug Nussmeier (last year's OC, Jim McElwain, departed for the Colorado State head coaching job). Brad Smelley was a big time target for McCarron last season on key third downs (he was Alabama's second-most productive receiver in 2011). It's unreasonable to expect Johnson to be as good as Smelley, but he did win the starting nod, so he must be doing something right.
At receiver, Alabama appears to be rolling with 6'0'' 185 sophomore DeAndrew White and 6'2'' 195 junior Kevin Norwood at the "X" and "Z" positions, with 5'11'' 185 sophomore Christion Jones taking the "H" receiver position (i.e. the slot). I was somewhat surprised to see White win the starting over Kenny Bell, Alabama's leading returning receiver, but I'm not sure that it matters much. Bell is a physical, athletic receiver, and McCarron looked to him downfield on occasion last year. AJ and Bell hooked up for a 39-yard and 41-yard TD against Tennessee and Auburn (a flea flicker, FWIW) respectively. Fast forward to 0:35 in the video below to see this in action.
Anywho, Alabama has more, but to continue to name them would be overkill. Here's the thing. Alabama's offense is a little more complicated than it may seem, but in the end this game will be all about those things that make us roll our eyes when guys like Merill Hoge talk about them: toughness, resilience, the ability to bend but not break, completely unironic GRIT. If Michigan is going to get this done, it probably won't be pretty. Alabama will pick up yards on the ground and, inevitably, through the air when Mattison is forced to bring increasingly crazier and riskier blitzes. However, if Michigan can hunker down once Alabama cross the M's 30, not unlike the Sugar Bowl, then I'm saying there's a chance.
I mentioned this back when I took a look at Alabama's quarterbacks and I'll say it again: McCarron is a better player than many Michigan fans are probably giving him credit for. He's a solid player, and yeah, sure, having that team around him certainly helps. However, all you need to do to realize that being a QB for such a team is not so easy is to recall LSU's 2011 season. The quarterbacking during the national title game was so rough that folks with no stake in the result of the game (me, for example) began to plead all over the Internet for Les Miles to PUT IN THE OTHER GUY, a guy who is often known as Jarrett "Pick 6" Lee.
I mentioned that moving QW to nose and Black back to WDE was kind of like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic, but the more thought I give this configuration, the more I like it. That is 600+ pounds (607 according to MGoBlog's Fall Roster Overanalysis) of human being there in the middle. Will it be enough against an interior trio of Chance Warmack, Barrett Jones, and Anthony Steen? Maybe not, but I like Michigan's chances much better with QW than Black.
As for the ends, there was once a point when I was fairly optimistic about this group. Now, not so much. I'm having visions in my head of Beyer and Roh getting handled by Fluker and Kouandjio in the ground game and getting stonewalled in the pass rush, and who knows what kind of player Black will be after adding weight and spending so much practice time on the inside. At this point, any sort of pass rush that Michigan can get from the these guys is gravy, which is a pretty ominous thing to have to say.
With that said, things are rosier in the back 7 for Michigan. As far as tight ends go, Michael Williams is Alabama's starter. He doesn't seem to be anything extraordinary, but he is by no means a liability or anything. He was a red zone target against Penn State last season (and also the recipient of a fake field goal TD pass that Ace linked to here).
Otherwise, I feel pretty confident that Michigan's 'backers will match up in coverage. The only catch is the Williams is 6'6'' and a biscuit under 270. OF COURSE HE IS. When Alabama has Williams and an H-back in the game, odds are you are about to get smashed in the face. He's a blocker and possible red zone guy...basically, what we all hope AJ Williams will one day become.
I feel confident enough in Michigan's safeties not giving up the dreaded big play for the first half or so. But...after that, especially if Alabama has racked up enough yardage that plays like the above dart to Bell can happen? That is the moment that the game is over.
What Needs to Happen, Fergodsakes
On defense:
Predictions of Negligible Worth
Making these sorts of predictions, especially for a game like this, is a torturous thing. A prediction is not really one data point that you pluck out of thin air. It's a deliberate whittling down of all results from a giant marble slab of possibility. My point: could I see everything going perfectly, Alabama having a bad day, and Michigan eeking out an incredibly ugly yet satisfying Sugar Bowl-esque win? Yes, I honestly can. Alabama is talented, and it speaks to the state of things that Michigan is such an underdog in spite of all the big name players that Alabama lost. In two or three years, this game will be an even contest going in, but we're not quite there yet. Still, this is a good Michigan team, and not one that should be underestimated.
With that said, too many things have to go well for Michigan to win this game. Michigan will probably need to have a turnover margin of at least +2. How likely is this? If this game is played ten times, Michigan probably has everything fall into place maybe once. That's what it is. We're banking on that one, that unlikely scenario, the "Jareth Glanda catching a pass" of games.
As much as it pains me to say it, I just can't make that prediction. To be able to stick it to the reigning national champs, the team that I had to spend four years hearing about as a high schooler, would be something beyond tremendous, if such a superlative even existed.
In the end, Michigan keeps it close for the first half, but without Toussaint, Michigan just won't have enough juice to keep enough drives going to make it a game. Even with Fitz, I'm not sure that Michigan has enough. It won't be pretty, but it won't be an outright blowout. At the same time, I don't think it will necessarily be "close." Michigan is a 13.5 point underdog, which, sadly, is just about right.
Score: Alabama 31, Michigan 17
The Exposition
Time: 8 ET, ABC
Place: Cowboys Stadium--Arlington, TX
Line: Alabama -13.5
Mood: !!!!!!!+unceasing anxiety
I spent my high school years in Alabama, coinciding exactly with the Mike Shula era. This was a few months after the Mike Price fiasco, not to mention Dennis Franchione's controversial departure for Texas A&M a few months before that. Add NCAA sanctions to the mix and a new head coach in Shula* (who had been a career NFL guy to that point, and never a head coach), and you could say that things were not turning up Milhouse.
At the same time, my high school years as a Michigan fan were about as good as you could ask of your program within a 4-year window. John Navarre went out and won a Big Ten championship in 2003 to spite his squawking detractors, and Chad Henne rode piggybacked on Braylon Edwards's back in 2004 en route to another one. The 2005 season, "The Year of Infinite Pain", according to Brian, was a paper cut compared to the total system breakdown that was the Rich Rodriguez era. My final season as a high schooler was the 2006 season, of which I don't need to tell you about.
Michigan going 0-4 in its bowl games during that time put a bit of a damper on things, but it was an all around great time to be a Michigan fan, especially one living in Alabama. In retrospect, it seems almost unthinkable for Alabama to have a 4-win season and two 6-win seasons in a 4-year span, but it happened between 2003 and 2006.
Enter Nick Saban, and that's enough of that whole losing and not being mistake-free cybernetic organisms thing. Say what you will about oversigning, but there is no denying that Saban is one of the best defensive minds in the game. In five seasons, Saban has compiled a 55-12 record; half of those losses came in his first season. Simply put, Alabama has been the best team in the country since Saban arrived in Tuscaloosa.
Needless to say, in nine years, a whole lot has changed; this isn't 2003, anymore.
*Amusingly, he is now the QB coach for the Carolina Panthers, coaching one Cam Newton. Life has a funny way of working out sometimes.
Michigan Offense vs. Alabama Defense
A note: I started writing this on Tuesday. I am assuming that Toussaint is not going to play, for what it's worth. The same goes for Frank Clark.
It's hard to decide which Michigan unit has a better chance of getting anything done in this game. As I detailed throughout the summer, this Alabama team is about as talented and athletic as you would expect. So, what's the catch? There is a catch, right?
Maybe, maybe not. Ask any Alabama fan about their defense and they will talk to you about RELOADING and 5-star recruits everywhere and how this ain't 2010 (when Alabama had to replace a similar amount of premium defensive talent and then went on to have a "disappointing" 3-loss season). Well, most of it is in fact true. Alabama is talented, and at certain positions, they will rotate guys in and out with relative ease.
However, some Alabama fans are just being unreasonable. I'm sorry. That's not to say that Alabama's defense won't be good (keep in mind that that 2010 defense was still very good) because they absolutely will, or that a defense that is a cut or two below last year's wouldn't still hold Michigan to a relatively low point total.
The simple fact is, no, Alabama fans, your defense will not be as good as last year's was. Then again, last year's defense was historically good, not just good in the context of the 2011 season. Some slippage can be reasonably expected, especially when replacing 7 defensive starters. Yes, I do understand that some of the players replacing these guys have seen some game action (for example, starting corner Dee Milliner), but not all of these guys have gotten meaningful playing time. Adrian Hubbard at SLB, Quinton Dial (was a rotational type guy last year that will be a half-starter along with Ed Stinson at one end position), Deion Belue is a JUCO guy in his first season in Tuscaloosa and a starting corner, Vinnie Sunseri is a true sophomore who did play some last season but has enormous shoes to fill at strong safety, etc.
As you probably know by know, Nick Saban is an evil genius whose defenses run with Gradgrindian efficiency; it's going to be "hard times"** for Michigan indeed if the OL consistently lets rushers through en route to clean shots on Denard. That cannot happen, especially early on in the contest. Nick Saban's Alabama defenses are known for their base 3-4, but Alabama is a fairly "multiple" team. The will also likely throw the 4-3 at us, the 5-2 (with two "Jack"*** linebackers on the field at once), and passing downs have their own special wrinkles for nickle packages. Alabama will throw a lot of different things, and Borges has ostensibly does his homework on all of them. That said, being ready to combat and execute these defensive looks is another battle entirely. FWIW, here's a useful video of Saban explaining the basis for the "Star" and "Money" positions in Alabama's nickel and dime looks.
Some Crimson Tide defenders to focus on at each level of the defense: 6'4'' 320 lb. senior NG Jesse Williams (he's a position switcher moving over from end, although he did play nose in his JUCO days), 6'2'' 232 lb. junior CJ Mosley at ILB (he's not nominally a starter but he basically is based on how much he will actually play, especially against a spread spread-ish team like Michigan), and 6'0'' 215 sophomore strong saftey Vinnie Sunseri (son of a coach!). Mosley in particular is a player to pay attention to when he's on the field. He's not technically a starter, but he's probably Alabama's best linebacker, and he will be on the field in passing situations. He's also Alabama's fastest backer, so expect him to do a lot of this when Denard does dump it off:
Don't get me wrong, I love Vincent Smith, but I'm not sure he will be able to shake Mosley on the edge. However, I think a guy like Justice Hayes could do some damage in this capacity, although that is admittedly based purely on recruiting hype at this point.
If Michigan (i.e. Barnum+Omameh/Mealer) cannot contain the Balrog that is Jesse Williams from getting into the backfield or render him irrelevant by attacking the edges and taking our chances there, it's going to be a long, long day. Remember this picture?
With the pressure that Alabama is sure to bring with the Jack linebacker, bringing Sunseri down into the box, and all other sorts of defensive sorcery, things could very well look like the picture above. I think Denard would agree with me: that is not something we want to happen. Alabama has spent the last few weeks talking about how they're coming for Denard, and why wouldn't they? Unless propelled by magic (4th quarter of the ND game, the entire VT game), if you key on Denard and force him to pass, things probably get ugly. Obviously, that is easier said than done, since not every team has the pure talent to force Michigan's hand in that way. Alabama, like Michigan State, certainly does.
Analogy time! Hoke:defensive line coaching::Nick Saban:defensive backs. Saban and DC Kirby Smart have supreme confidence in their DBs, which is not unreasonable given the talent they have at their disposal and the fact that Saban might be the best and most meticulous teacher of DB technique in the country. It's his special pet project amongst all other coaching duties, much like the DL is to Hoke.
A perfect example of this confidence is the Cover 1 Robber defense, which Chris Brown of Smart Football discussed in his book released earlier this summer (and summarized excellently by this MGoBlog diary). Alabama will put its corners in man coverage with regularity, and this decision is only strengthened by the fact that Michigan's top two receivers are Roy Roundtree and Jeremy Gallon. No offense to either player, but I imagine that neither exactly strikes fear in Saban's robot ersatz heart.
Want to see the Cover 1 Robber in action? You have seen it before, and I apologize in advance for this. If you'll remember, I recently linked to this excellent post from The Only Colors on the now infamous Double A-Gap blitz. Therein, a discussion of one variant, the Cover 1 Robber, was explained in detail. Guess which play that was:
As surprisingly complicated and variegated as that particular blitz is, you can be sure that Alabama has many like this one lined up and ready to go. Denard et al need to have their hot route cues down pat, or the above will very likely occur at some point.
I don't think that Michigan will have much success attacking the middle with the ground game...at least early on. Alabama stuffed everyone, even LSU's paleolithic but effective power running game, and I think that we should expect different results. I don't think that Borges is foolish enough to do this, but if Michigan lines up in the I and attempts to run any sort of traditional power run, you can bet that thousands of Michigan fans will all be throwing up their hands in unison. Unless we're in a short yardage or goal line situation, Michigan cannot afford to waste precious plays by plugging away up the middle. This isn't the 1990s: lightning bolts will not rain down on your head if you don't run to set up the pass.
The problem with that is Michigan has Denard Robinson, who, aside from being a transcendent runner with a fantastic smile, has had some basic mechanical issues in the passing game, not mention trouble reading defenses and reacting to pressure. All of these things do sound like a recipe for disaster against a defense like Alabama's, but we have to assume that Denard has improved throughout the offseason. Playing like he did against Nebraska and Ohio State would be a start, but that's all it would be. The same gaping holes that were there against the Huskers and Buckeyes likely won't be there against Alabama, and if they are they will be closing up a little more quickly.
So, what are the options? Really, there aren't many that don't involve pinpoint execution and, quite frankly, not getting blown back at the point of attack. If either happen, it's over. An UTL-esque miracle is just not going to happen against this team.
**ELITIST REFERENCES PAWLLLL
***FYI, the JLB is basically the pass-rushing linebacker; last year, it was Courtney Upshaw.
Michigan Defense vs. Alabama Offense
Speaking of the offensive line: they are huge. I previewed this position group way back in early April, and not much has changed (actually, nothing has). If you didn't already know, 2011 All-American LT Barrett Jones made the move to center to make room for Cyrus Kouandjio, which speaks to how highly the coaches think of the latter. This is the second move that Jones has mode (he was once a guard), so while position switches are often uncomfortable propositions, Jones has always been lauded as a smart guy and should be more than alright.
Alabama has a bevy of talented tailbacks and wide receivers. Like the secondary and linebackers, experience is the primary issue with most of these guys, although they are by no means completely green. None of these guys are Trent Richardson or Julio Jones, but they might not need to be if the ground game has worn Michigan down as I'm sure Alabama is intending to do.
You probably know about Eddie Lacy by now. He was Alabama's #3 in 2010, Richardson's backup last season, and should be the feature back this season. A pesky injury kept him out of most of spring ball, IIRC (including the A-Day scrimmage), and has still seemed to be banged up as recently as the last week or two. I linked to a video of him doing a short drill with a fairly significant amount of tape on his ankle, which may or may not mean anything.
Saban has used the words "day-to-day", and the fact that he'd be "ready to go in 5 or 6 days"...he said this on August 18th. The more time that passes, the more I get the feeling that he won't be 100% on 9/1. If that is the case, our old friend RS freshman Dee Hart and true freshman TJ Yeldon become the next guys in line. Jalston Fowler, Alabama's #3 last year and the Tide's top mooseback, appears to have made the move to H-back, where walk-on Kelly Johnson has won the starting role in what can be considered the shocker of fall camp (it hasn't been that exciting of a fall camp). Johnson has big shoes to fill, as the H-back is a very important player in Alabama's offense, which should basically stay the same despite the hiring of former Washington OC Doug Nussmeier (last year's OC, Jim McElwain, departed for the Colorado State head coaching job). Brad Smelley was a big time target for McCarron last season on key third downs (he was Alabama's second-most productive receiver in 2011). It's unreasonable to expect Johnson to be as good as Smelley, but he did win the starting nod, so he must be doing something right.
At receiver, Alabama appears to be rolling with 6'0'' 185 sophomore DeAndrew White and 6'2'' 195 junior Kevin Norwood at the "X" and "Z" positions, with 5'11'' 185 sophomore Christion Jones taking the "H" receiver position (i.e. the slot). I was somewhat surprised to see White win the starting over Kenny Bell, Alabama's leading returning receiver, but I'm not sure that it matters much. Bell is a physical, athletic receiver, and McCarron looked to him downfield on occasion last year. AJ and Bell hooked up for a 39-yard and 41-yard TD against Tennessee and Auburn (a flea flicker, FWIW) respectively. Fast forward to 0:35 in the video below to see this in action.
Anywho, Alabama has more, but to continue to name them would be overkill. Here's the thing. Alabama's offense is a little more complicated than it may seem, but in the end this game will be all about those things that make us roll our eyes when guys like Merill Hoge talk about them: toughness, resilience, the ability to bend but not break, completely unironic GRIT. If Michigan is going to get this done, it probably won't be pretty. Alabama will pick up yards on the ground and, inevitably, through the air when Mattison is forced to bring increasingly crazier and riskier blitzes. However, if Michigan can hunker down once Alabama cross the M's 30, not unlike the Sugar Bowl, then I'm saying there's a chance.
I mentioned this back when I took a look at Alabama's quarterbacks and I'll say it again: McCarron is a better player than many Michigan fans are probably giving him credit for. He's a solid player, and yeah, sure, having that team around him certainly helps. However, all you need to do to realize that being a QB for such a team is not so easy is to recall LSU's 2011 season. The quarterbacking during the national title game was so rough that folks with no stake in the result of the game (me, for example) began to plead all over the Internet for Les Miles to PUT IN THE OTHER GUY, a guy who is often known as Jarrett "Pick 6" Lee.
I mentioned that moving QW to nose and Black back to WDE was kind of like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic, but the more thought I give this configuration, the more I like it. That is 600+ pounds (607 according to MGoBlog's Fall Roster Overanalysis) of human being there in the middle. Will it be enough against an interior trio of Chance Warmack, Barrett Jones, and Anthony Steen? Maybe not, but I like Michigan's chances much better with QW than Black.
As for the ends, there was once a point when I was fairly optimistic about this group. Now, not so much. I'm having visions in my head of Beyer and Roh getting handled by Fluker and Kouandjio in the ground game and getting stonewalled in the pass rush, and who knows what kind of player Black will be after adding weight and spending so much practice time on the inside. At this point, any sort of pass rush that Michigan can get from the these guys is gravy, which is a pretty ominous thing to have to say.
With that said, things are rosier in the back 7 for Michigan. As far as tight ends go, Michael Williams is Alabama's starter. He doesn't seem to be anything extraordinary, but he is by no means a liability or anything. He was a red zone target against Penn State last season (and also the recipient of a fake field goal TD pass that Ace linked to here).
Otherwise, I feel pretty confident that Michigan's 'backers will match up in coverage. The only catch is the Williams is 6'6'' and a biscuit under 270. OF COURSE HE IS. When Alabama has Williams and an H-back in the game, odds are you are about to get smashed in the face. He's a blocker and possible red zone guy...basically, what we all hope AJ Williams will one day become.
I feel confident enough in Michigan's safeties not giving up the dreaded big play for the first half or so. But...after that, especially if Alabama has racked up enough yardage that plays like the above dart to Bell can happen? That is the moment that the game is over.
What Needs to Happen, Fergodsakes
On defense:
- Say it with me now: bend but don't break. I'm sure Mattison has some tricks up his sleeve, but tricks can only do so much when the other team is simply bigger and faster. Michigan is not going to win the stat sheet battle. If Mattison's defense gives up 500 yards and manages to hold Alabama under 31, there is hope. Make them kick field goals (see: 2011 LSU game, Part 1).
- Countess and Floyd. Please be in pre-OSU/VT form. Alabama has quite a few talented players at receiver, but I'm not really convinced that there is a star among them (certainly not a Julio type). This goes without saying, but given the probably lack of a front four pass rush, JT and Blake will be on an island more fairly often. The good news is that, after a year of Mattison's diabolical blitzes and aggressiveness verging on over-aggressiveness, they're probably up to the challenge.
- Quinton and William. To put it simply, if these two look like they're on skates, there is simply no hope. Again, you can only scheme and mitigate your weaknesses so much. As Saturday approaches, I've become increasingly confident that they'll be able to hold up at least adequately; whether the linebackers can shed Warmack and Steen and tackle the ball carrier--whether an all-around talent like Lacy or a darty sort like Hart--is another story entirely. For the record, I'm fairly confident that Demens, Morgan, and Ryan will do a decent job. Jake Ryan, after QW and BWC, might be the most important player on Michigan's entire team in this game.
On offense:
- No turnovers please. If Michigan turns the ball over, chances are a win is not happening. The margin for error is razor thin.
- Get the passing game going early. My nightmare is that Michigan comes out, plugs away on the ground, fails miserably and then sees everything spiral out of control as Michigan tries to pass its way back in the game with a guy like Denard. The slant will be there, and Borges will call upon that old standby, the throwback screen to Gallon to start pushing the Alabama linebackers and safeties away from the LOS. Naturally, if that happens, that's where Denard goes to work. If there's 9 in the box, forget about it
- Devin Gardner. The wild card-iest wild card who ever wild card'd. If he is a legitimate force at receiver, that could change everything. To be quite honest, after Milliner, the rest of Alabama's corners don't impress me as much as Alabama's new linebackers do. Also, I need to see Sunseri and Clinton-Dix in action before I deem them the second coming of Ronnie Lott. I think that Michigan might get some mileage out of the so called "QB Oh Noes" play, as Brian calls it, what with Sunseri looking to be an involved and aggressive player in the run game. Borges needs to scheme against that position.
- Attack the edge, quickly. Yes, SEC speed and all that, but I think that it's just about a waste of time to try (past a token effort) to develop a between-the-tackles running game, at least in the first quarter or so. Michigan needs to be creative in its ground game, kind of like it was against Ohio State last November. Get numbers going to the edges and let's see how those pseudo-newbies at linebacker handle Denard. WR end arounds. Denard jet sweeps.
- Trick plays. Let's see 'em. Seriously, Al. 2008 Capital One Bowl Redux, this needs to be.
Making these sorts of predictions, especially for a game like this, is a torturous thing. A prediction is not really one data point that you pluck out of thin air. It's a deliberate whittling down of all results from a giant marble slab of possibility. My point: could I see everything going perfectly, Alabama having a bad day, and Michigan eeking out an incredibly ugly yet satisfying Sugar Bowl-esque win? Yes, I honestly can. Alabama is talented, and it speaks to the state of things that Michigan is such an underdog in spite of all the big name players that Alabama lost. In two or three years, this game will be an even contest going in, but we're not quite there yet. Still, this is a good Michigan team, and not one that should be underestimated.
With that said, too many things have to go well for Michigan to win this game. Michigan will probably need to have a turnover margin of at least +2. How likely is this? If this game is played ten times, Michigan probably has everything fall into place maybe once. That's what it is. We're banking on that one, that unlikely scenario, the "Jareth Glanda catching a pass" of games.
As much as it pains me to say it, I just can't make that prediction. To be able to stick it to the reigning national champs, the team that I had to spend four years hearing about as a high schooler, would be something beyond tremendous, if such a superlative even existed.
In the end, Michigan keeps it close for the first half, but without Toussaint, Michigan just won't have enough juice to keep enough drives going to make it a game. Even with Fitz, I'm not sure that Michigan has enough. It won't be pretty, but it won't be an outright blowout. At the same time, I don't think it will necessarily be "close." Michigan is a 13.5 point underdog, which, sadly, is just about right.
Score: Alabama 31, Michigan 17
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