Notre Dame Preview: Once Is A Mistake, Twice Is A Coincidence

After a brief hiatus--UMass being, you know, UMass--I'm back to the Friday morning previewin' game. Given that it is Notre Dame, most of this could probably be whittled down to "Denard Robinson needs to do Denard Robinson things", but...here it is, anyway. 


Time: 7:30 ET (NBC)
Place: Notre Dame Stadium--South Bend, IN
Line: Notre Dame -5 1/2
Mood: Like someone at a craps table, hoping for one more run before retreating into the night. 

(HT: Mike DeSimone)

The Exposition 
Making an attempt to explain the last three games in this series is as useless as counting the stars in the sky or pondering the meaning of life: really, they happened and they're there, and that's all you need to know. That doesn't mean that we can't mythologize or look back through layers of intoxicating nostalgia, it's just that these three separate 3-hour events, twice in Ann Arbor and once in South Bend, defy any attempts at empirical or rational reckoning. Try to explain last year's Notre Dame game to a friend and all the clocks within a one mile radius will begin to melt and Salvador Dalí will emerge from a wormhole to smack you across the face and say bastante. 

Sure, these past performances certainly will be hanging in the air over Notre Dame Stadium on Saturday, a reminder to ND fans and players of how things can go so utterly wrong, of how deep the abyss is, as well as the concern that there might be even further depths which remain to be visited. Of course, on the Michigan side, it will all be a subtle nod to the power of magic. The power of Denard Robinson, like gravity, is unseen but knowable and therefore some sort of benevolent sorcery, kind of like having Gandalf on your side. You don't know where he will come from and at what point in the proceedings, but he eventually does, and with spectacular results, results that make you feel as if your cause is...invincible. 

With that said, the aforementioned is nice to talk about but not as important as many will have you believe. Past performance does not ensure future results, and magical coincidence is more often than not just magical coincidence. When Michigan and Notre Dame meet, especially in South Bend, all layers of reality and preconceived notions are stripped away, which is basically just a roundabout way of telling you to take them there record books and throw 'em out.

Like every Michigan-ND game, there's an unnerving anticipation in the buildup that is only intensified by the 7:30 start time. Although both teams have already faced big tests and marquee opponents, this is still the one of the primary forks in the road in each team's season. Lose and feel the expectations temper and languish. Win and, rightly or wrongly, watch the expectations soar.

Michigan Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense 
I know that the whole "just do what Alabama did" became somewhat of a meme this week, but there are some similarities between Alabama and ND: they both deploy the 3-4 defense that deploys a rush linebacker sort that goes by a special name. For Alabama, it was the "Jack" linebacker. For the Irish, the position is branded the "Cat" linebacker position, which doesn't seem very cool, creative, or in any topical but okay Notre Dame  coaches too busy thinking about football to come up with good gimmicky position names.

While I'm not sure just yet that Prince Shembo is as good as Courtney Upshaw was for Alabama at the JLB spot, he's pretty darn good (and also fantastically named). Shembo had his best game of the season last week against MSU, amassing 9 of his 15 total tackles on the year, including a sack (2 TFLs). At, 6'2'' 250 and sporting the #55, I'm kind of reminded of Brandon Graham, which probably isn't an accurate comparison but whatever. He is a terror, and Michael Schofield (and Vincent Smith) will need to be on their pass pro games if Denard is not going to be Shembo'd into oblivion.

I'm not positive that Diaco will release the hounds when it comes to the defensive ends, #89 Kapron Lewis-Moore and #7 Stephon Tuitt, but the linebackers have certainly been aggressive the last couple of seasons. This has allowed Denard to do Denardian things once he's gotten out to the second level. I think this will need to happen again, as I don't see Michigan's interior line having much success moving NT Louis Nix; again, I'm not sure that Nix=Jesse Williams, but he is definitely very good. As I read Ace's FFFF post yesterday, the section on Nix sort of reminded me of, yup...Jerel Worthy. That is not a very good thing of which to be reminded.

Quite frankly, Michigan will not have much reproducible success running the ball with Toussaint; if any back has success in this game, I have a strange hunch that that back is Vincent Smith. Michigan will find itself in passing situations fairly often, and Smith could prove useful swinging out to the flat and/or filling into the zones which blitzing, hyperactive linebackers have just vacated in the middle of the field. Of course, the only problem with that is that Smith is of course tiny--see: Denard's INT against Air Force--and Denard being who he is will probably lead to some more dangerously errant passes. Throw it high enough but low enough for it to hit Smith in the fingertips and you're looking at a basic tip drill for the D.

Al Borges made a nice point in one of this week's pressers about his confusion regarding the fans' strange insistence that rushing yards only "count" when they come from a running back; against Notre Dame, Michigan has gotten it done on the ground with Denard and Denard alone. Is that type of strategy sustainable? Well, you tell me, 2010 and 2011 scoreboards. However, can it happen again? I'm not so sure.

The only scenario in which I see Michigan having some success on the ground with somebody not named Denard is, you guessed it, by successfully attacking Notre Dame's vulnerable, depleted secondary. Andrew Maxwell and his receivers were not able to take advantage of ND's secondary despite having 8+ defenders in the box with regularity, but I'd like to think that Michigan's QB and receivers are significantly more dangerous than their Spartan counterparts.

In short, yes, I am unironically saying that Michigan should go with the Alabama gameplan this week. ND's defense is several degrees inferior to Alabama's but is also quite possibly the best defense left of Michigan's schedule. I'm definitely not saying that we shouldn't run Denard much for fear of injury or something (as was the theory behind that strategy on 9/1), but running Denard left and right right off the bat is something that ND will be ready for.

Michigan Defense vs. Notre Dame Offense 
Listening to the MGoPodcast this week, the consensus seems to be that Everett Golson is sort of in his ur-Denard (to borrow Matt Hinton's phraseology) stage as a quarterback: a not necessarily accurate guy who can make big plays but also mess up the basic ones. He is an exciting prospect, certainly more exciting than Rees and Dayne Crist were, but still very much in the inchoate stages of his development.

Like Denard, Golson is not exactly Cam Newton; at 6'0'' 185 (according to his official Notre Dame profile, at least), he's bound to be called things like "slight" and "willowy" and "probably-needs-to-eat-more". Regardless, he has flashed the playmaking ability that is giving me some bad flashbacks of the 2004 Ohio State game in which a young Troy Smith had himself a day against a favored Michigan team. Needless to say, we have to hope that when Notre Dame drops back to pass, Golson's arms turns into a Ramen noodle or something and that Michigan's can mitigate the lack of a formidable pass rush by keeping contain and not letting Golson run around a la Smith circa 2004.

In average passing situations--i.e. when Golson isn't just freestylin' and profilin'--Michigan should be okay. Notre Dame's receiving options don't really worry me, and I think our corners will be just fine. Tyler Eifert is the next guy in a long line of Notre Dame NFL quality tight ends, but Eifert seems to be more of the hyrbrid WR/TE Greg Olsen/Travis Beckum/etc. sort than a traditional pseudo-lineman with clubs for hands that only catch 1-yard play action passes in goal to go situations. Eifert can really play, and will be a matchup problem when going up against pretty much anybody in Michigan's back 7; strangely, however, Eifert did not record a reception against MSU last week.

Otherwise, there isn't a Michael Floyd in this group, although these are still ND recruits and thus capable of doing damage; after all, let's not forget that our starting corners are likely J.T. Floyd, a sometimes maligned former safety and Raymon Taylor, a still fairly green true sophomore. I have great faith in Taylor, and he's been my "guy who I'm irrationally excited about" since he got playing time early on in the 2011 season. Still, the thought of him playing the field corner spot on the road with a taller receiver like DaVaris Daniels across the way from him or a speedster like TJ Jones (who is most famous for doing this). He did also do this last year to make it 24-7, making the situation seem nearly hopeless for the Wolverines:

Similarly, Robby Toma is a tiny, white receiver and is therefore Wes Welker, so Michigan will need to keep an eye on him and Jones on screens and other slowly developing plays (e.g. the above drag route). 

Unfortunately, like on offense, Michigan is at a disadvantage up front. Notre Dame has an experienced line that will look to run the ball with multiple backs, with Cierre Wood being the headliner and Theo Riddick and George Atkinson providing quality depth. The Irish didn't have an extremely prolific day running the ball, but they were actually fairly effective, with 27 carries going for 129 yards (4.8 YPC, with Golson's sacks taken out). Two things: a) compare that to how Michigan did against MSU last season on the ground and b) remember that Michigan's defensive front is nowhere near as good as MSU's, and you have two fairly worrisome things going on. 

While Notre Dame's receiving corps doesn't necessarily have a star, it's not too difficult to imagine ND racking up a yardage total that equals or exceeds last year's 513. Unless the light suddenly turns on and Campbell, Washington, etc. can finally get any sort of push at the POA, Michigan is in for a long day. Even with a less refined passer in Golson in the game, Notre Dame will still threaten to drown Michigan in a tidal wave of yards and first downs. The Michigan defense's life preserver will once again have to be forced (and unforced) turnovers on ND's part. 

What Needs To Happen, Fergodsakes 
On offense:

• The Rex Grossman philosophy of offense. I'm pretty sure Al Borges is secretly a big Rex Grossman fan, and that will hopefully show on Saturday by going deep early and often. Remember the Northwestern game last season? Michigan needs to attack downfield just like they did against the Wildcats. 
• Please no I-form running. This goes without saying, but Michigan spent an inordinate amount of time during UTL last season plugging away from under center with no success. I'm pretty sure we've all learned our lesson at this point, and it's pretty apparent that Michigan's interior trio is not moving anybody in traditional running sets. 
• Accurate Denard, don't be a mirage por favor. Fairly self-explanatory, but if Michigan is going to mitigate the disparity in respective line strength, Denard will need to complete some passes from the pocket early on at every level (dumpoffs, intermediate routes, and deep). Like many teams these days, I expect DC Bob Diaco to keep his ends mostly in contain mode, so rolling Denard out could be asking for a lot of balls harmlessly falling to the turf after Tuitt or Lewis-Moore do their best Dikembe Mutombo impression. 

On defense:

• Like a broken record...say it with me: BEND BUT DON'T BREAK. This is just simply Michigan's calling card until Michigan's youngsters become upper classmen. ND will rack up yards, they will probably get at least one first down on a given drive more often that not, and they will probably score in or around their 2011 total. 
• Show me time. With Desmond Morgan looking like he's back in the starting lineup, it's time for him and Kenny Demens to reassert themselves as the starters, especially on the heels of a recent charge by freshmen James Ross III and Joe Bolden. Morgan had a bit of a tough time against ND last season, and he's struggled to start the season and then had a "head problem" that kept him out last week. I would rather not have to see too much of Bolden and Ross on Saturday, and that means Morgan/Demens playing competently. Nobody's asking for big plays or anything--that's what Jake Ryan and Frank Clark are for--but not completely whiffing on the edge and being ready to take on blockers without getting engulfed would be nice things. 
• BRING. THE. HEAT. Nobody needs to tell Mattison to be aggressive, but Michigan will need to bring the heat from time to time. Golson isn't actually end-of-2004-Troy-Smith yet, so Michigan can make some hay taking a page from MSU's playbook and bringing pressure through the middle, overwhelming ND's interior line, and allowing the secondary to handle their men in single coverage. Michigan will get beat from time to time, but I don't see any way around it: Michigan needs to force a turnover or two, and I don't see that happening without calling in an air strike or two. It is "unsound", sure, but desperate times and circumstances call for desperate measures. Hey, just remember that we were trying to do this with Greg Robinson not too long ago and you'll feel a bit better. 

Predictions of Negligible Worth 
I, like you, have that faint glimmering hope that Denard will finish his career as ND's ultimate kryponite, and that he has one more soul-crushing, virtuoso performance in store for the Irish. With that said, attempting to accomplish something a third time takes that thing from mere coincidence to trend, and I'm not entirely sure that what we have here is some sort of underlying, fundamental trend. That is, I'm not sure that Michigan can beat Notre Dame, no matter what, just because we have Denard Robinson.

This is essentially a greatly scaled down version of the Alabama game. Notre Dame is not Alabama by any means, but they do have strong defensive talent in the front 7 and they do have a solid offensive line and a deep group of talented tailbacks. They will try to enforce their will on Michigan's decidedly average front, and Michigan has no choice but to hope for mistakes on ND's part from time to time...which, to be fair, ND has been happy to oblige the Wolverines with of late.

I know I said this last year, and I have no idea what ND's final record will be this season, but I think this ND team is better than this Michigan team. The same thing could have been said leading up to the 2009, 2010, and 2011 matchups; of course, that did not stop Michigan from winning each of those games. Michigan has discovered the alchemic route to gold, that being a little bit of luck and a lot of Denard Robinson.

As always, a "prediction" is a defraying of the sum of all predictions. That is, which outcome is the "most likely" to take place? Saying that one thing will happen does not preclude the belief that any other option is also possible.

With that said, I think we are bound for a 3+ hour drive to anticlimax. I don't see Michigan generating enough offense to keep up, and I don't think we are in for Denard Eviscerates Notre Dame Part III. Likewise, I don't see where the playmaking will come from in the Michigan defense (outside of Jake Ryan, that is).

In the end, I think Michigan goes to South Bend and takes a loss in a game that will essentially reflect what probably should have happened last season: Notre Dame accumulates around 500 yards or so and generally controls the game from start to finish. Everett Golson hasn't been around long enough to convince anybody that he is or isn't prone to committing silly turnovers, but it's obvious that he isn't as careless with the ball as Tommy Rees. As such, I don't think that Michigan can expect to be kept in the game with unforced and untimely errors from the ND side. Michigan takes an ugly and only cosmetically close loss in South Bend, a game that will come to be seen as the Godfather III of the Denard vs. Notre Dame saga.

Score: Michigan 17, Notre Dame 27 

The Sun Also Rises

(HT: Mike DeSimone)

Michigan 40, Ohio 34

The ball came and he went up for it like a whirling gyre amidst the chaos. He came down with it, assessed the situation, and said "I will go there." And he did. The sun shone as he reached that place once again, that place he once knew but had for a time forgotten, like a soldier in a faraway land holding a grainy picture of a girl or a dilapidated home that maintained only a tenuous mental existence, like a dream instantly forgotten upon awaking. He crossed the line and remembered it all. The obstacles around him twisted and stumbled and fell as he came through, unable to reconcile the reality with their worldviews that it disrupted the laws of physics as they knew it for a brief moment. Everything collapsed around him but each step forward ushered in a new civilization, a new idea, a new hope. Each step to that end was a tacit affirmation of everything that was good but hadn't been for so long. 

It was the first salvo of many in the second half, but Michigan never trailed again after that point. It was a tacit understanding that this was the end; this wasn't last time, or the other time or the other time. It was a time unto itself, flourishing in the culture of its newness. 

When the last pass fell into the arms of Courtney Avery like he was welcoming someone's long-awaited return, he sat on the sidelines and smiled. The sun seemed to have risen, like the rows upon rows of Michigan Stadium before a third down play. It was strong but not malevolent. It shone pure lucidity, a clarity that made all actions obvious so that the intermediaries of thought to action were obviated by the circumstances. Run to the student section. And they went. He jumped up for the last time and the world was upon him. Hands and faces and shouts: happiness. He held onto the moment because it would be the last time.

The streak is over but on this particular day the streak doesn't mean a thing. It was about Michigan and Michigan alone. It was their day in the sun, and they took it. When the adrenaline had subsided, the fans had left the stadium, and helmets were off and held in hand, only one thought remained, only one could rightly be had: Michigan had won. It was ironclad. 

They sang The Victors. The noise that rang out bellowed, each syllable pounded into the air like a fist. It could be heard from far away. I think I hear it now. Eyes all searched for something to say we won to, and the air was charged with something that carried the scent of momentum, a latent buildup of something. Plans were laid and a bridge was built. All that's left to do is marvel. The room buzzed and they marveled. 

The Offense

Like RVB said in the post-game presser, this probably wasn't Denard's "best" game if numbers alone are the determining factor, especially with the 2010 ND game in the not too distant past. With that said, as far as virtuoso quarterback performances go, this game reminded me of Chad Henne's Rose Bowl against Texas, Tom Brady against Alabama, Henne against the Gators, &c. For the first time this year, Denard looked like a complete quarterback, like a guy who truly could beat you with his arm the minute you thought it was okay to cheat on the run. That's not to say that past iterations of Denard weren't great, but I think this might be my favorite Denard performance of all time, and yes, that includes last year's ND game. 

His throws had zip and were on target, and although he didn't have as prolific a day as the aforementioned guys with respect to pure yardage, it was as efficient a day as you could have wanted. Denard was 14/17 for 167 yards and 3 TDs through the air, and he of course added 170 yards and 2 TDs on the ground just for fun. You could say that this was an example of a Denard-Borges offense at the height of its powers, except, you know, we get one more year of this. This was just a preview. 

At this point, any complaints about Borges are so minor as to be downright irrelevant if not absurd. Sure, you have to take into account subpar performances against MSU and Iowa, but if you survey the season on a macroscopic level it is astoundingly clear that this offense is much more dangerous than it was back in September, when the offense consisted of jump balls and a run offense that was 2010-esque in its inability to find production from anybody not named Denard Robinson. Denard's command of the offense and Borges's command of the circumstances have improved by leaps and bounds; there's a lot to be excited about for next year, not to mention the fact that the fires of an offseason QB "controversy" have been effectively extinguished. 

The numbers themselves don't even do the performance justice. The types of throws Denard made on Saturday were good throws for any quarterback, and plays that evinced the types of attributes that a good quarterback would have, let alone a spread quarterback trying to do something new. The touch pass to Koger up the middle, the 28-yarder to Dileo, the Hemingway touchdown, the patience on the Odoms touchdown: these are the manifestations of Denard's progression as a passer. I don't want to hear the word "regression" anymore. Life isn't a series of unflinching black and white. Bad and good things happen but that doesn't necessarily indicate a trend or even a trend that is doomed to stick if it's a bad one. 

Oh, and he was sort of alright running the ball too. Rich Rodriguez must've been watching those veer plays thinking "Really? COME ON." It was downright scary how reminiscent of White & Slaton some of those plays looked, but I guess the sledding gets much less tough when you have a talented back like Toussaint to pair up with Denard. On Twitter Brian noted that Denard needed to start keeping, and, as if on cue, he did just that. Perhaps most encouragingly--more than the actual output itself---is that he ran like 2010 Denard again. He looked as fast as he always was after leaving me wondering at various points this year if he had lost a half step. He was aggressive and his movements were purposeful: read and GO, and maybe embarrass some people in the process:

If Etienne Sabino is a Beatles fan, "Hello Goodbye" was probably playing in his head at that very moment in time. There are many more runs like that one. The fumble and the almost lost fumble were the only real blemishes on an otherwise tremendous day on the ground and through the air.

Elsewhere, Toussaint did what he does. Another year of Toussaint and Denard plus a group of solid wideouts (and a legitimate deep threat in Stonum) and an OL that returns more than enough folks should provide for a fun 2012 season on offense.

How perfect was it that seniors like Odoms, Hemingway, and Koger all scored touchdowns in their final games in the Big House? It was a perfect end to a trio of careers that had their fair share of setbacks, frustrations, and moments of doubt. It's hard to play favorites with any of these guys, but Steve Breaston: RBUAS::Odoms: me. I'm sad to see him go and it's hard to believe that this was his last game in the Big House. Listening to this past week's MGoPodcast's discussion about Odoms re: the weather during the '08 Northwestern game gave me laugh and then got me to thinking how quickly time can pass without your approval. I'm not sure what lies ahead for Odoms et al, but if this season is any indication then I'm sure it will only be the best of things.

And if you needed one more thing to smile about, I give you Denard, post-game: "I'm glad I stayed."

The Defense

Thomas Gordon breaks it down as others do things

Well, that didn't quite go as expected. The Buckeyes put up a number of big plays and 34 points on a Michigan defense that had risen meteorically from last year's level of unadulterated futility. The secondary breakdown on the long TD last week against Nebraska was an indicator that despite the improvement, this defense wasn't exactly immune to giving up the big play, but nobody thought that a Bollman offense could have come into Ann Arbor and performed like that. Yes, Michigan escaped with the win and that is definitively all that matters. Michigan's defensive renaissance isn't to be casually dismissed on the heels of one bad game, but it is a subtle (okay, not so subtle) reminder that scheme and coaching go a long way, but talent and experience need to be there as well. Michigan has the former set in spades, but the latter (i.e. talent, experience, and depth) still needs some work to say the least. 


With that said, credit is due to Ohio State, namely Braxton Miller, for coming into The Game with an aggressive gameplan as opposed to prior games where there was seemingly no gameplan at all. It was hard not to watch and have visions of 2004 Troy Smith run through your head but we got the win so those will be set aside until next year. I had a feeling that OSU would definitely do better than they had throughout the season because it's The Game fergosakes, but still...I don't think anybody expected to give up that many points or big plays. 


It seemed to me that, even late, Mattison wasn't really respecting Miller's ability to go downfield and it almost burned us there. Countess got his lunch taken a few times, and so did Floyd on the Miller overthrow in the last drive. The later was a little discouraging given the situation in the game as well as the fact that Floyd has defended moves like that before, particularly against AJ Jenkins of Illinois. 


The numbers are actually not that bad. Michigan gave up 372 total yards (with my mind still sort of expecting RR era results, less then 400 yards=GOLD JERRY GOLD), and the Buckeyes racked up only 137 rushing yards on 31 carries, good for 4.4 ypc. That's not terrible. Michigan held Dan Herron to 43 yards on 15 carries, and he is pretty good even if OSU's 2011 OL hasn't been the best in recent memory. Of course, where Michigan got beat was when Braxton Miller decided to turn into a jazz musician in cleats and improvise all over the place. There's a reason he was a highly-touted recruit; the guy can play. He's not there yet, but given Michigan's lack of defensive speed and relative inexperience in spots, it's not hard to see why Miller had the game that he did, even if other lesser teams held him in check. Did I expect it? No, but I'm not exactly surprised. In any case, despite the points, Michigan notched 7 TFLs, including 4 sacks. Even when Michigan is getting 34 dropped on them, they're still doing some good things. That, and Demens and Morgan lead the team in tackles with 10 and 8 respectively. That's what you want. 


It will be interesting to see how Michigan responds in the bowl game, particularly if they face a team like Houston that will throw and throw and throw some more. Despite the defensive turnaround by the numbers, I would caution people to not get too excited just yet. I know, thanks Cornelious Buzzkillington...but it's true. Giving up plays of 36, 43, and 54 yards does not bode well if we are to face a team like Houston, unless we can get pressure with the front four (and I think it's a reasonable assumption to say that we will). I won't lie and say that the defensive performance wasn't a little disappointing, but (WE) BEAT OHIO. Michigan will spend the next month or so getting some invaluable coaching; guys like Morgan, Ryan, and Countess will basically have a second fall camp to get ALL THE MATTISON COACHING. 



Special Teams

Gibbons?

Gibbons has quietly put together a fine season (10/14 on the year and 48/48 on extra points), and has become, dare I say it, "reliable." That 43-yarder was about as clutch as you can get without being a straight up "if you don't make this we lose" situation. Hagerup had his derp moment (I'd put it here but you've all seen it already). I like that Hoke always dismisses these occurrences as a product of "probability." It's: a) true and b) serves to not completely destroy a kid's confidence. I like it.

Otherwise, Hagerup did well with his other 2 punts, returns were average as usual, and OSU's returns teams were generally a non-factor save for one 31-yard kick return from Jordan Hall. 2011 special teams, I love you so much.

Miscellaneous Minutiae 

• Make no mistake about it, OSU will be back. That team has talent--quite frankly, the talent gap is still pretty wide--and all it will take is some coaching. OSU will have the offensive side covered; if Urban can make a good DC hire then the Buckeyes will likely get back to being pretty good on defense again. Injuries didn't help and some guys (Travis Howard) turned out to be nowhere near as good as anybody expected, but they will be fine next year. 

• Michigan went undefeated at home for the first time since 2006. Clearly Pop Evil is having some sort of adverse effects on our opponents as well. 

• I wonder how many wins in a row it will take for OSU fans to stop talking about the 7-game streak? It seems like talk of Michigan's ownage of PSU pretty much came to an end last year. I'd say two more and we're good.

• Brady Hoke unleashed his inner 7 year old by utilizing the word "funner" post-game. Brady, if you keep winning you can continue to pepper your coachspeak with non-words as much as you please. 

• Martavious Odoms doubled his previous career TD output throughout the last three games, scoring one in each game. PAHOKEE UBER ALLES. 

• MGoBlue.com Notes, always full of interesting trivia that you may or may not want to know. Did you know that Brady Hoke is the fifth Big Ten coach ever to win 10+ in his first season? Well, now you do. 

• Michigan is now 58-44-6 against Ohio. I bid you adieu, 57.

Hello Goodbye, 8/23

I had the great fortune of being able to spend this past weekend in Ann Arbor; it's truly amazing how much you hate living there in the dead of winter, and then when you move away for even the shortest period of time you'd rather be back in that unpredictably cantankerous climate than the sunny, sensible place in which you now live. It was my first trip to Ann Arbor since graduation in April; while being back in town was a little sad in that it is a reminder that my undergraduate days are over, driving down Main and seeing the new scoreboard bursting from the horizon like a maize and blue wonder of the world was, to say the least, tremendous. 

In more important, less nostalgic news, I think I cast my vote in the Sandwich Wars for Maize and Blue Deli...for now. This of course will change whenever I get the chance to go to Zingerman's again (hopefully Notre Dame weekend). Also, for anyone who cares...the new Mediterranean place on State (one that took the place of Cosi) is actually fairly good. I recommend it. ANYWAY.

Camp Rumors: So we've been hearing a lot the last several days about who is performing and who is not. Some of the news has been encouraging, some has been extremely discomfiting. The latter is, of course, referring to Will Campbell, who is building up his case for being one of, if not the biggest, bust in recent history for Michigan. I had held out hope that maybe the light would go on like it sort of did for Gabe Watson, and he'd at the very least be a player that you could hope would not be a significant liability by virtue of his size (and, admittedly, his recruiting pedigree), and thus, at worst, a non-difference maker capable of holding down the starting spot. As tough as that is to say, it's true, as it appears Campbell may have reached his Waterloo this time. Getting beat out by a walk-on represents a conscious decision by the coaches to go with someone less talented in every respect because the more talented player does not have the drive, the technique, the willingness to improve, etc. to get the job done and done well. BWC has had his chances, and there's always the potential for a Hoke motivational ploy to be found in Nathan Brink's ascension up the depth chart...then again, the path that Campbell's career has taken suggests it is not.

In other news, offseason favorite Fitzgerald "Mike Hart with speed" Toussaint has generated some significant buzz, to the point that many are saying he could be the starter. I will be completely honest, this was a surprise to me. A good surprise, mind you, but a surprise nonetheless (kind of like walking into the Big House for the UCONN game last September to watch the Wolverines only give up 10). Guys like Shaw, Smith, Cox, and even Hopkins, are known entities at this point; we know that Shaw is a burner who sometimes has trouble finding the hole and then flashes the knowledge he attained at the Carlos Brown School of Tackle Breaking when running between the tackles. Smith is a tiny, tiny man who can catch and block but don't ever, EVER ask him to convert on 3rd and short. It seems like he's gotten some of his burst back, so we'll see how he figures in to the offense this season. We know that Cox is talented and will look amazing against Derp State but never see the field otherwise, and we know that Hopkins is of the Wisconsin mold of tailbacks.

This is why Toussaint taking the reins would be pretty exciting. We saw a brief flash of what he could do against Bowling Green, but he's spent much of his time at Michigan either injured or not playing. Now, as a redshirt sophomore, is a perfect time for him to come in and show people why they were so excited about him in the first place.

Other notes available at MGoBlog as usual...it looks like my prediction that Avery will take over the spot opposite Woolfolk is coming to fruition, which I think is good for the defense overall. No offense to JT Floyd, who'd make a more than okay nickel, but Avery is just less athletically limited and has better upside. Some names are added to the logjam that is the WLB position race: Hawthorne and Morgan. It's interesting to see Morgan being moved from the MIKE position; I was definitely a fan of his the more I read of him, but, as Brian notes, this obviously indicates that the WLB position is probably going to be mediocre this year. I'm interested to know how interchangeable the coaches feel some players are vis a vis the SAM and WILL positions; that is, does putting the 3 best backers on the field entail Jake Ryan sliding to the other side (i.e., the WILL)? While it's hard to say, I don't think it would hurt to try it down the road if some of these more experienced guys--age-wise, at least--fail to do anything substantial. A unit of Ryan-Demens-Gordon could be, dare I say it, downright good.


Attrition Time: Tony Posada is done at Michigan, making him the second freshman to leave the program this offseason (the first, of course, being TX LB Kellen Jones). This doesn't necessarily hurt as much as Jones from the talent perspective, whose existence in Norman only further underscores his potential. Posada had a solid offer list but nothing to write home about. If he wasn't from Florida, I doubt people would have been as excited about him as they were (which was sort of muted to begin with). He would have had to drop some bad weight regardless the offensive system, but, in my honest opinion, he seemed like a guy who would be a good fit for the Michigan lines of old as a big bruising right tackle/guard whose production probably would top out with a year (maybe two of starting), with maybe a season of all-conference honorable mention. Being compared to the small town that was Alex Mitchell was never a good thing for Posada. In any case, we'll never know, and it's time for Hoke and Co. to keep on the remaining OL targets (Garnett, Banner, etc.).

CtK Day 12: 

J.B. Fitzgerald, "competing for a spot" at the MIKE position. Obviously, Demens is pretty much a lock there, but in the case of injury (no thanks, please) Fitzgerald is a seasoned vet who has seen some action despite not quite living up to his recruiting hype. Most backers figure to at least practice at multiple positions, and I'm sure the same is true for Fitzgerald. He is definitely a MIKE, but as mentioned earlier re: Jake Ryan, I get the feeling that the linebackers might have some flexibility as to what positions they will play. If Greg Robinson was still around I'd be displeased at the notion of linebackers switching positions, but I think we all have faith that Mattison will coach 'em up. Ideally, you want guys that can play multiple positions anyway. Physically, your WILL is going to be smaller and faster than the other two backers, but it's still possible to know all three positions and be able to play them if necessary due to injury, lackluster performance, etc.

Staying Put: 


In a statement put out on Friday, the conference announced its intention to stand pat with respect to conference expansion:

In response to a number of recent media inquiries received by several Big Ten Presidents and Chancellors regarding the likelihood of further expansion by the Big Ten, the COP/C would like to reiterate that it will not be actively engaged in conference expansion at this time, or at any time in the foreseeable future, barring a significant shift in the current intercollegiate athletic landscape.   

1) This is good news. 2) In this day and age, I've gotten so jaded that I don't believe anything that anyone says in the world of college football...I believe that they think they intend to stay at 12, but once the dominoes start to fall will Delaney be able to watch other conferences pick off the best schools? I don't think so. In any case, the whole "barring a significant shift" thing...yeah. That's gonna happen.

GET OFF MY LAWN: Okay, not quite, but Rittenberg talks about the Big Ten and how it's not like your father's Big Ten:

When Wisconsin's Bret Bielema attended his first Big Ten coaches meeting in 2006, he recalled Delany polling the coaches about whether they would favor a league championship game in the future.

"The only two guys who raised their hands were me and Ron Zook," Bielema said.

Zook being "ahead of the curve" on this (as ahead as you can be on something that has already existed elsewhere for quite a while) makes me second guess the validity of the Big Ten's current model. However, in all seriousness, it's hard to argue that the Big Ten hasn't done well for itself overall. Instant replay, the BTN, adding Nebraska, the establishment of Big Ten hockey, etc. Now, the only thing left to do is win a national championship for the first time in nine years. This isn't Bo and Woody, but then again in those days the Big Ten was Michigan, Ohio State and everybody else; I think the new status quo is better for everybody (as well as national perception). Brady Hoke comes in with a quote in response to Delany's lamentation of the NCAA issues at Michigan and Ohio State:

"It was toward all of us," Michigan's Brady Hoke said, "about how important the Big Ten brand is and how we want to respect our brand and how we want to operate and do business. … It was something we needed to hear."

"Brand"...slowly becoming the new "tremendous?"

More? Dr. Saturday starts his BlogPoll countdown...Mississippi State comes in at 24. The SEC West is going to be scary this year. The Spartans come in at 23: "This team could be any Dantonio team: The veteran pro-style quarterback under center, the between-the-tackles workhorse in the backfield, the largely anonymously but solid defense, etc. Check, check and check." James Wood on secularism and religiosity...sometimes I imagine Michigan State fans waking up in the middle of the night, sweating, wondering what the point of it all is (it, of course, being a Spartan fan). 11W previews the Ohio State offense in the post-Tressel/Pryor era. Verdict? "Cautiously optimistic."