Breaking Points: Little Brown Jug/Homecoming Edition

After spending the bye week focusing on the rest of the Big Ten (and simultaneously trying not to think about the Akron and UConn games), Michigan will returns to the Big House this Saturday for its Big Ten opener (and Homecoming).

The Gophers, on the other hand, ran through their weak nonconference schedule with ease, only to drop its own conference opener against Iowa last week in disappointing fashion. In the 23-7 loss at TCF Bank Stadium, the Gophers rushed for just 30 yards on 27 carries (40 yards on 18 if you remove QB Philip Nelson's numbers). For a Minnesota squad without much serious receiving talent, if you shut down the ground game, you're in business. After the Gophers ran a pass-heavy spread-type offense for some time, a return to this sort of ground-based football seems appropriate to me.

So, what will be the key matchups heading into this one, as the Wolverines look to cover what seems to be a generous 19-point spread? Once again, the same things will likely continue to pop up all season:

Chris Bryant vs. jumping into the starting lineup. This will be Bryant's first meaningful game action, which would be encouraging under ordinary circumstances. As it stands, Bryant is getting the start out of necessity, what with Jack Miller struggling at center, forcing a Graham Glasgow move to that spot so Bryant can slide in at left guard. How Glasgow adapts to the center position is another story entirely, but, at minimum, Bryant should bring quite a bit more run-blocking oomph at the guard spot (and it's not as if Glasgow was particularly bad at LG anyway). Assuming Bryant is truly healthy and ready to play, if he can give Michigan a boost this week, perhaps the Michigan ground game will start to trend upward at just the right time.

Michigan front seven vs. Minnesota ground game. Simply put, whether it's Philip Nelson or Mitch Leidner in the game, this will be a classic Big Ten "stop the run" game, written without a hint of snark. It's difficult to get a feel for what Leidner can really do in the passing game, given that he's only played against Western Illinois and San Jose State (12-for-20, 176 yards, 60%, 0 TDs, 0 INTs). Nelson, on the other hand, has struggled, completing just 50.8% of his passes and throwing four interceptions to just two touchdowns. For all of the consternation about the UConn game, the Wolverine defense actually held the Huskies passing game in check (Chandler Whitmer passed for just 5.0 yards per attempt); Greg Mattison's side of the ball will need another performance like that if the Wolverines plan on its first comfortable victory since the Central Michigan game.

At tailback, Donnell Kirkwood has been limited by an ankle injury since the opener, and carried the ball just three times for six yards against Iowa. Kirkwood had a decent 2012 season; if healthy, he could be a challenge, but not unless the quarterbacks offer any sort of relief. If Kirkwood can't go, Rodrick Williams Jr. (5.8 YPC) and David Cobb (5.8 YPC) will carry the mail. Cobb is 5'11 225, whereas Williams Jr. is 5'11 235. In short, expect several Desmond Morgan thumpacolypses.

Lastly, whether Nelson or Leidner (or both) enter the game, both will carry the ball quite a bit themselves. In five games, the two signal carries have carried it 42 and 46 times, respectively.

Devin Gardner vs. mistakes. This will continue to be a point of concern for the rest of the season. Without entering the discourse of what his confidence level must be like after Akron and UConn (and even the Notre Dame pick six if you'd like to include that), Gardner must have a clean, relatively mistake-free game. Despite having explosive DT Ra'Shede Hageman, the Gophers are just 108th in sacks, with six in five games. Gardner will have time, but time has often been Gardner's enemy. As spectacular as Gardner's touchdown strike to Drew Dileo was last season against Minnesota, I'll take some conservative dinking and dunking before any wild, desultory scrambling. At the same time, that is who Gardner is as a quarterback, and asking him not to improvise is like trying to bottle up the wind.

Iowa's Jake Rudock went 15-for-25 for 218 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Quite honestly, this would be an encouraging line for Gardner, especially if he connects on a big play or two like Rudock did.

Hageman vs. non-Lewan offensive linemen. Hageman is a defensive tackle but is a type who will probably do some moving around on the line. With that said, I wouldn't be surprised to see him lined up on the edges, although I'd bet not against Lewan. So, whether it's Schofield, Kalis, Glasgow or Bryant, if Michigan is going to avoid another parade of 2-yard losses, they must account for Hageman's quickness. He hasn't had an especially dominant season to date, with only one sack to his name, but he is tied for the team lead in tackles for loss (5.5). Given the smack talk that has gone on this week, Hageman will be looking to prove himself and up his stock against a name brand like Michigan (if you're into that line of thinking). I usually dismiss that sort of thing, but, after all, these players are people, not automatons derived from meticulous calculus.

Jehu Chesson vs. incorporation into the offense. There is a minor undercard of a story for this week, but Chesson's incremental incorporation into the swing of things should hopefully take another step forward this Saturday. With all due respect to Jeremy Jackson and Joe Reynolds, Michigan is much better served with Chesson on the field. He took a leap forward in that department against UConn, but wasn't quite able to make those plays downfield. The Gophers gave up a couple of big plays against Iowa, including a 74-yarder to Damond Powell. This Saturday will be another opportunity to build up some trust with the coaches--he's already proven himself as a surprisingly effective blocker--as the Wolverines start to approach the challenging part of the schedule.

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Other than that, Michigan is a better football team, and the Iowa game last week shed light on the weaknesses of this Minnesota squad. If Philip Nelson is tearing Michigan up through the air--and I feel like I've said this thirty times this season already--then run for cover.

Minnesota's only somewhat productive receiver is the 6'2'' 187-pound senior Derrick Engel, and even he has just 12 grabs thus far (160 yards, 1 touchdown). Assuming Michigan locks down on him like they should, I don't know where the receiving production will come from for Minnesota.

Roll your eyes if you must, but if Michigan runs the ball with any success and stops the run, then they do have a pretty good chance to cover that spread. On the heels of the Gophers' 16-point loss at home against Iowa, maybe I'm being a bit pessimistic, but I need to see Michigan put it together for a whole game against an overmatched opponent before I can start to breathe easy again.

It's a bit strange to think that Gardner's debut came against Minnesota last season, and that a year later against that same team, there are more questions than answers regarding his play. Saturday will provide the first of many opportunities to beat back the ghosts of Akron and UConn.

I think Michigan looks much better than it did against either of those teams, but isn't quite what it was against Notre Dame. Score: Michigan 31, Minnesota 13. 

Miscellaneous Minutiae, 8/24/2012

Today marks the penultimate Friday before football season (well, technically it's the last, since there's a game next Thursday, but THIS IS a MICHIGAN blog, after all). To summarize my feelings on this development:

No foolin', that's basically what I look like every time I remember that football is nigh. Anyway, a quick note about this season on HTR before closing some more Dave Brandon-related tabs (and some other stuff) currently taking up space up there on my browser.

Site note. Since football season's warm glow is almost upon us, I figured it would be a good time to briefly mention what the tentative weekly plan for this here site will be. First of all, I'm starting grad school next month; unfortunately, this means less time to fritter time away on here. The 2011 season was pretty successful, as I found a way to get a post up on weekdays more often than not. That probably won't happen this season. If I do make an effort to post some thoughts, they'll have to be in a truncated form (if you've been reading this blog, you can probably tell that that is a problem for me).

Anyway, the most important thing is that my Monday game recap/general observations posts will not be appearing here this season. Instead, I will be doing them over at Maize n Brew, where they will appear every Monday at some point in the morning. I will make sure to provide a link here for convenience.

I will still make every effort to post some things with semi-regularity here, but, you know...priorities and all that. Anyway, this has been your official heads up! Moving on.

More Dave Brandon things. Puck Daddy talks about the effects of the NHL lockout on the city of Ann Arbor (and Detroit) if this work stoppage ends up axing the Winter Classic on January 1st, one of the NHL's biggest cash cows. Let's talk dollars and cents:

The local economy in Ann Arbor is also counting on an economic boost from an event that would draw as many as 115,000 fans. Ticket prices range between $79 and $279 with tickets being sold at seven different pricing levels.

Brandon said earlier this year that an average Michigan home game generates between $14 million and $15 million for local businesses, including hotels and restaurants.

Brandon expects the Winter Classic could generate even more money, which has been evidenced in recent years. According to the league, the annual winter outdoor game generates between $30 million and $36 million for host cities.

That is quite a bit of cash money for Ann Arbor, the U as a whole, and the entire metro Detroit area. Unfortunately, the lockout seems to pretty much be a sure thing, which is kind of mind-boggling (but is a post for another day and another blog); will it last through New Year's Day? If so, then that would just be the cherry on top of the moron sundae that has been this new round of CBA negotiations, talks defined by propaganda lobbed back and forth between a cadre of extremely rich guys guys and one of just plain 'ol rich guys.

How does Brandon feel about this potential outcome (i.e. no Winter Classic)? Here's how:

"Michigan Stadium has been dark and cold and barren every New Year's Day for the last 80 years. We're kind of used to that, and if something happens where they can't play the game, it'll be the way it's always been."

Take THAT people who think Dave Brandon doesn't care about tradition. See, he's all about "the way it's always been." Isn't that what tradition is all about? Like not making noise during games or complaining about quite literally everything as pretentiously as possible, some traditions should not be sacrificed at the nefarious Altar of Change. Speaking of traditions:

This ceremony might not happen at all this season and Gary Bettman is terrible (yes yes I know he's just representing his constituents i.e. the owners). That sound you're hearing is the evaporation of all of the NHL's post-2004/05 momentum.

Red Berenson has been awesome for much longer than you. Also from Puck Daddy, but the St. Louis Blues' "Essentials" post--a team-by-team preview type thing on PD--name drops our very own Red Berenson in the best goal section. The video:


The relevant text:

Red Berenson's sixth goal. The date was Nov. 7, 1968. The place was the Philadelphia Spectrum. The feat was Red Berenson scoring six goals in one game, the modern NHL record for most in one game. In 1920 someone with the Quebec Bulldogs scored seven on Toronto, but let's be fair. It was Toronto. Anyway, no other modern player has scored more than six and Berenson was the only player to score six in one road game. I'd write about a Stanley Cup winning goal or something. But that would be a really short paragraph with exactly zero words.

Not that this is anything new. Six goals in one game has to be the "Wilt scores 100" as far as hockey feats go, right (I'm asking you, reader)? A remarkable career for a tremendous player, coach, and man. I really hope he can bring one more national title before hanging 'em up. It really feels like he should have about five or six to his name by now.

Ringer, Bryant out for the season. There hasn't been much coming out of fall camp this year, and, for the record, I think that this is a good thing and good policy. Unfortunately, one of the few bits of actual news is not good. Chris Bryant, who redshirted last season and seemed primed to be a contributor and potential starter in the case of injury, and Kaleb Ringer have both gone down with injuries that will see them sit out the 2012 season.

Ringer enrolled early but was probably not going to be a factor this season. Bryant, on the other hand, is a bit of a bigger loss. Bryant went down with a fractured tibia...I'm not sure what the recovery time for that will be, but  I always get a little nervous about lineman getting hurt due to the potential for weight gain (maybe unjustified, but it is something).

Anyway, the line was already outrageously thin before this; losing a guy who would've played in some capacity is very, very bad indeed. Dear Mssrs. Lewan, Mealer, Barnum, Omameh, and Schofield: DO NOT  GET HURT DON'T MOVE DON'T GO ANYWHERE EVER OKAY THANKS.

Brandon on the band. DB talks about the Great Potential Band Fiasco That Never Was 2012:

"The band changed their mind," Brandon said. "They decided they didn't want to be in buses and they didn't want to play their way to Dallas and they came and said 'we're planning on coming to Dallas, everybody's planning on coming to Dallas, but we're not going to ride in buses we're going to fly in a jumbo jet and here's what it's going to cost.' "

Like I said when this little "family squabble" was first discussed: next time, take the bus, guys. I don't think that there's much reason to assume that this explanation is a lie or propaganda for the simple fact that somebody in the band could very easily just say "hey, that's not what happened." Contrary to what people think, I highly doubt that DB thinks that "all publicity is good publicity."

Either way, who cares. It's time to officially file this away in the shamefully overflowing "pointless and petty Michigan e-controversies" cabinet.

HEY DAVE (yes, one more). Nice marketing/PR stunt, pal! We all see right through you. You make me sick. 

(HT: mgovideo)

Of course, by all of the aforementioned I mean bawwwwww.

More? Dienhart went to practice yesterday, has some observations. UMHoops continues ranking the B1G's top 25 players; here's 16-20.

Enjoy your last football-less weekend (no, NFL preseason does not count)...Alabama and season preview stuff will go up here next week. Almost there.