Profilin' the Tide: The Offense

My boredom project last offseason consisted of writing up full-length posts on each of the Buckeye quarterback competing to replace the departed Terrelle Pryor (doesn't that feel like ancient history at this point?). That was fun (no it wasn't). This meant spending real, actual time looking up information of debatable utility about players like Kenny Guiton, Taylor Graham, Joe Bauserman, and Braxton Miller. What's a "Kenny Guiton" you ask? Nobody really knows, but from what I can ascertain, he seems to be Mike Cox if Mike Cox was a quarterback and also played for the Buckeyes. You might think this is impossible, but this is a 2012 that features Bob Davie and Terry Bowden coaching in New Mexico and Akron* respectively; anything is possible in these times of ours.

This is a thing I'll probably watch between 1 and infinity times this offseason. 

In any case, with the spring game scrimmage football type substance coming up, we're faced with an imminent dead period shortly thereafter. With a high profile game being our first, I think this is probably a good time to check in with the Tide, who are of course also in the midst of spring ball. Nick Saban called and Michigan is still practicing, so, the crimson footbaw machine will continue to improve and self-correct before the torrid Alabama summer hits; in Alabama, this is unironically called The Process. Other things that also fall under the umbrella of The Process in Alabama: learning not to drive to Chick-Fil-A on Sundays (this is ingrained after many years of weekly disappointment), understanding the usage of the appropriate tone and/or inflection of a well-placed "Roll Tide," and trying not to spontaneously combust upon walking out the door on any given summer day.

For those unfamiliar, I spent my high school years down south in Alabama, so I probably feel a little more comfortable than most Michigan fans in talking about the Tide, from personnel changes to fan sentiments to the arcane customs and traditions that accompany the strange beast that is Alabama football. In a way, this game, for me, is similar to Michigan-Michigan State for in-state kids at Michigan; a win in this one would present me with the trolling opportunity of a lifetime.

On a serious note, I plan on taking this through most of this month (maybe it will prevent me from having to watch my White Sox's early tumble into irrelevance), going through each position group with as much statistical depth, local source citing, and general editorializing as possible so that we can have a pretty good understanding of who this team that we'll be facing on September 1st in Independence Day Alien Spaceship Stadium actually is.

Today I'll start with a brief summary of the offense and some general themes to consider going forward into the end of spring ball and throughout the summer.

*Seriously...Akron. That still makes no sense.

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"The Process, The Process, The Process...oh hey, also, you're moving to center." 

It is true that the Crimson Tide offense is basically the apotheosis of MANBALL, but this often sarcastically-deployed word doesn't really do the Bama offense's efficiency and overall effectiveness justice. The Tide put up just under 35 points per game in a conference known for its defense (Although, outside of LSU and Georgia, I'm not sure that there was another truly great D in the SEC, and Bama didn't even play UGA last year. There's also South Carolina, who was pretty good but also not on the schedule, and Florida, who was actually sort of decent defensively insofar as a 7-6 team's defense can be decent.) Boring does not mean "bad," and I'm sure Alabama fans have found this style of play to be decidedly not boring.

The Tide return 4 out of 5 starters on the offensive line, the lone departure being William Vlachos, a 2011 Rimington finalist (we can't all be the Molk Man). Alabama is so stacked that All-American LT Barrett Jones is being moved to center to make room for Cyrus Kouandjio on the left side. That is an unbelievable luxury and it speaks to the Saban and Co.'s excellence on the recruiting trail. No, I won't be referencing over-signing in this posts, FWIW. As a Michigan fan, it's counter-productive vis-a-vis this game anyway.

Last year's offensive coordinator, Jim McElwain, left Tuscaloosa for a head coaching gig at Colorado State. The Tide bring in former Washington OC Doug Nussmeier, and from the sound of things he's going to be another guy running the Alabama offense; I'm sure it's more complicated than it looks, but running the ball behind that line and taking the occasional calculated chance deep/play action seems like a pretty fantastic job to have. In his 3 years in Seattle, Nussmeier had the chance to work with Jake Locker and Keith Price; Locker was of course a first-round pick despite not really completing many passes and seemingly getting killed all the time, and Keith Price had a very nice debut season as a starter in 2011. I'm not sure there's much to glean from this, as the role of Alabama OC is pretty well-defined and lacking any sort of leeway. According to AJ McCarron, the current heir to the throne of the prestigious line of "floppy-haired Southern gentleman pocket passers" (see: Brodie Croyle, John Parker Wilson, Greg McElroy), says that not much has changed:

"Same as always," McCarron said. "Nothing different. Just some new faces around there. Other than that, everything seems to be clicking so far. Hopefully we can keep progressing."

To be fair, Alabama would be crazy to shake things up significantly. There's no need to mess with something that's worked spectacularly, and we should expect more of the same from the Alabama offense (although Nussmeier will certainly bring his own offensive wrinkles).

The offensive line is fixing to be perhaps one of the best in Alabama history, and the offense is returning its signal caller, as well as the guy that challenged McCarron for playing time last offseason/in the early part of last September (that would be former 4/5-star--of course--Phillip Sims, who appears to be missed valuable spring reps due to injury). Trent Richardson is gone, but Alabama is not lacking for tailbacks. If there is a weakness to be found, it's the receiving corps, which has a quite a bit of outgoing production to replace.

Here are a few things to pay attention to heading into A-Day (Alabama's spring scrimmage, also on April 14th):

• Can Phillip Sims get healthy enough to rekindle the mini-QB controversy that sort of existed at the beginning of last season before, you know, Alabama went on to win the national championship? As a Michigan fan, you should be rooting for chaos and controversy here. 
• The left tackle position. Can Kouandjio lock up the position in the spring? Obviously, Saban would never intimate that any position had been "won" in April, but we'll certainly have practice reports and tea leaves to get a general feel for his progression. He did play in every game as a freshman last year before going down with a knee injury in the Tennessee game, so he's not lacking experience. However, knee injuries are always an issue no matter what, so that's something to look out for. Either way, Michigan's defensive ends have a very tough matchup awaiting them. 
• Replacing production on the outside. It's easy to forget about guys like Darius Hanks, Marquis Maze, and Brad Smelley when discussing Alabama football, but they were not insignificant pieces of Alabama's prodigious success last year. Kevin Norwood stepped up big in the The One That Counted, filling in for an injured Maze...he will probably have to continue to do that if Alabama wants its offense to continue to be the well-oiled, balanced leviathan that it has been of late. 

Miscellaneous Minutiae, 4/4/2012

Back from a bit of a break. That noise you hear? Oh, that's just FOOTBALL. Adieu, hockey and basketball...it's time for football. Sort of. 
Self-Promotion, Still Shameless: Check out Maize n Brew later today for some basketball talk from me re: how the offense will look decidedly un-Beilein-like going forward. Basically, I suggest that Michigan basketball will look a lot like this:

Let's hope Michigan can bring a little more defensive intensity than that. "THE BALL'S IN HIS SHIRT NOOO WHAT ARE YOU DOING."-Person that takes AND1 basketball way too seriously

Footbaw Talk Is Positively Gorgeous: Al Borges sat down with Howard Griffith and talked real, live footbaw. If this sentence excited you the same way that it did me, then: a) you have a problem and b) it's probably early April.

The two issues to address in the passing game re: Denard are footwork and "second decision making." Al makes even relatively simple concepts like, say, making decisions, sound really cool. He then goes on to break down two plays, the first being that interception against Purdue, an intermediate dig route to Roundtree against Iowa, and the long completion to Gallon on Michigan's late game drive against Notre Dame. You would think that these are relatively simple plays, but I was hoping there'd be more at the end of the video. Alas, it's only five minutes long, but it does give you just enough to ward off the pangs of football withdrawal for a little while.

In any case, the Purdue interception, in particular, is the sort of play that Denard simply cannot make going forward. Given that this will be year 2 in the system, I feel pretty good about not only this sort of play being eliminated from Denard's game, but turnovers in general. Footwork is doubly difficult for mobile QBs like Denard; happy feet leads to interceptions, missed receivers, and other unfortunate happenings. Denard's feet vis-a-vis the passing game (i.e. getting the appropriate depth in his drops, not getting happy feet, not throwing off the back foot, etc.) are arguably more important than the role, in, well, running the ball. Al was not perfect in 2011, but it's hard to feel anything but comfort going forward. Now if we could only just get him to officially become enamored with the concept of continuing to recruit mobile types (of course, very few will be as fast as Denard, if any even exist) for the QB position, things would be just perfect.

Terms to add to your Michigan football lexicon: "steal his eyes" (defender reading the QB's eyes) and "gettin' in the fight" (in reference stepping up in the pocket through the lanes created by the outside rushers).

Diamond in the Rough: Nick Baumgardner's article on GRIII's skyrocketing recruiting hype is another thing to file under "Beilein is a ridiculous talent evaluator" file. According to GRIII himself:

"Those guys believed in me before anyone else really did, and that means a lot," Robinson said.

And also:

"I believe some schools look too much into what a player is right now, and not what their potential could be. Michigan did a great job with that, though, and that's what I really liked about them."

 So, there you go. GRIII has seen his stock rise from "fringe high-major" level to the #28 player in the country according to Scout, making him a just-about-5-star prospect. That is an incredible jump, but if anybody would've been able to predict that sort of spike, it's John Beilein. As much hype as Mitch McGary has gotten (and as much under-the-radar indie hype as Stauskas has gotten), GRIII is the guy from this class that I'm most excited about. He's the athletic dynamo of a winger that elite teams usually have at least a couple of...I imagine his outside game will need a little work, but he will contribute significantly no matter what.

Outside of the article's recruiting slant and GRIII's using not making the McDonald's All-American team as motivation to get better, the article references the fact GRIII was told by the staff that he'd play both the 2 and the 3, and not the 3/4 as was previously expected. I don't normally get too caught up in the numerical designations, but I though it was interesting. Then again, it's entirely possible that this quote was based on information that preceded the news of Smotrycz's departure; in light of that, it's possible that GRIII will still see some time at the 4, although I really sort of hope not. This of course leaves the conundrum of having both GRIII and THJ at the 3, and you'd really like to have both on the court at the same time. If THJ can seriously refine his handle and outside shooting this offseason, then you can pencil GRIII in for a starting spot. Otherwise, I think we're probably looking at Burke-Stauskas-THJ-Morgan-McGary, which is just fine.

Losing Smotrycz, Novak, and Douglass is unfortunate, but I think the future is still bright.

Meanwhile, in Alabama: [Insert Shutdown Fullback's "pig running across a football field" animation]

On a serious note, 2012 signee Dalvin Tomlinson sustained what is termed a "serious" knee injury. Tomlinson is 6'3'' 270. Care to guess how he hurt his knee? If you guessed "soccer," well, you must actually live in the Yellowhammer State, otherwise you'd be inclined to believe that soccer has long since been banned by the Alabama State Legislature.

I'm not completely sure where he fits in the Bama 2-deep at this point in time, but odds are he would have at least been a contributor, even with Australian manbearpig Jessie Williams officially moving to defensive tackle after spending last year as a RVB-esque DT/DE. In any case, it seems a little fishy that he says he'll be "over it" by the time the season starts. Assuming it's an ACL injury, the common wisdom is that that sort of thing takes about six months, which would see the last month of his recovery begin in September. Of course, this last sentence was rampant speculation, so who knows.

Of course, since people are horrible, I must state the obvious: all injuries, suffered by anybody and no matter for what team, are unfortunate. Anyone that roots for an opponent to get injured should be forced to watch the 2008 Northwestern game on loop in a dark room with their eyelids taped open. With that said, this is something to monitor as we get closer to September 1st, as Alabama has already lost a significant amount of defensive talent to the NFL.

More? Andy Katz has Michigan at #8 in his early top 25...yeah, try not to think about 2009 (you can't). Excellent recruiting stuff from UMHoops, as always. Spring practice notes from Tuscaloosa; nothing too exciting. Dudes are nursing injuries, the O-linemen are getting used to lining up next to new faces. Spring football, yeah!

On Losing, Coping, and the Meaning of This

On two consecutive weekends, Michigan saw an otherwise successful season come to an end with an almost existential abruptness. Seniors--Zack Novak, Stu Douglass, Shawn Hunwick--saw their time as Michigan athletes end on a sour note, an otherwise cheerful classical symphony ending in an out-of-place minor key.

The basketball team spent the time between November and March actualizing the entirety of its potential, doing everything that it could with what relatively little it had to spare. The ride was a nearly ceaseless crescendo, a buildup to something great. It fell apart in the end; the idealism of deserved Fate--of positive outcomes reserved for those who have traversed the darkest corners of the realm of athletic pursuit--was dealt a heavy blow. Is this how it was supposed to end? The curtain falls and you sit in your seat in the dark amphitheater waiting for more, and more never comes. That is all there is. You get up and leave.

The hockey team rolled into the sequestered vacuum that is the NCAA hockey tournament with a shiny #1 seed and a roster that had seemingly experienced the athletic equivalent of a renaissance. Whether by virtue of Jon Merrill's return or survivalist instinct, the latter mirroring the same sort of late-season push we saw last year and the year before, it was breathtakingly automatic, the quintessential example of the sports cliche "flipping the switch." The streak was not only intact, it was as if it had never been in danger. As others more qualified than I can probably corroborate, this wasn't a vintage Michigan team featuring electron virtuosos like T.J. Hensick or top-notch two-way stalwarts like Kevin Porter. And yet, the results speak for themselves.

After Lynch's late equalizer and the remaining time expiring without another goal, it was not difficult to harken back to last year's championship game, in which regulation time ended 2-2 after a late Michigan goal. UMD's first goal bounced just over Hunwick's outstretched pads, the second on a UMD power play, in which a shot in close rebounded almost miraculously onto the UMD attacker's tape for a second point blank opportunity. A Rohrkemper goal tied it late, like Lynch's late goal on Friday; overtime hockey once again. The land of dread. The land of affirmation. Overtime hockey is elaborate, fevered theater. It is a Shakespearean sword fight, each combatant slowing bleeding out his life slash by slash, until one or the other has no more blood to give and thus clutches, spins, and falls.

UMD's final goal came after Michigan had spent most of the early minutes of overtime in its own zone, frantically attempting to catch its breath, to stave off the final blow. A crashing UMD forward, essentially untouched, came through and potted the winning goal. It was over.

Again, Michigan entered the perilous domain of overtime hockey, looking to make its second wind count. Survival was the only instinct playing out at this juncture. At that point, everything else fades away, ancillary to the order of the moment. Overtime hockey is so Darwinian thought set upon the framework of sport.

A rebound and a weak backcheck later and the puck was in the back of the net only a few minutes into the overtime period. Again, it was over, as if someone was repeating a bad joke after it failed to elicit laughter after the first telling. There was nothing Hunwick could do, and the fact that he was mostly helpless makes a bitter end even more difficult to take. After a career filled with save after incomprehensible save, saves that defied the laws of physics and conventional wisdom, it would all naturally end with a sequence beyond his control, one of those moments in which agency is nowhere to be found. The puck didn't care what came before; it went in the wide open net, invited by its stark dimensional reality. The puck was oblivious to history. It always is.

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After these things, there must come some sort of response. Experience gives one the ability to skip certain steps in post-loss processing, insofar as watching sports can inspire feelings of personal "loss." You've got your denial, and it saves you and everybody around you a lot of time and broken household items if you just skip to acceptance.

Single-elimination hockey is Fate neutered, in which the thing that actually happens seems off, askew even, like a picture on the wall that has fallen to either side. A degree off-center. Bizarro. More so than anything else, the NCAA single-elimination format takes Fate, capitalized, and sends it through a grinder and a furnace, in the process revealing that Fate is not really a crystallized absolute but a collection of individual possibilities, flecks of charred, hardened reality. All it is is survival; the fleck that makes it through is the one that is. That's it. It's a little unappealing, isn't it?

But, I think, that's how it is. Whether we're talking about the Big Dance or NCAA hockey, Destiny and Fate--capitalized--are not self-aware. They don't know what the basketball team has been through throughout the span of Zack and Stu's careers, or the fact that the Michigan hockey team was fighting to continue one streak while also trying to vanquish another (i.e., no national titles since 1998). This sort of literal, rationalist thought sort of guts the entire enterprise of collegiate athletics of some of its most idealistic aspects--that things are or aren't meant to be, that people deserve certain things, that outcomes affirm or erase the journey--but I think that's mostly okay. Is that a loser's attitude? I honestly don't know. It may just be white noise in the end.

When I think back on the career of a player like, say, Mike Hart, what comes to me immediately is not the fact that he never beat the Buckeyes or won a national championship. If that's what comes to you then I think our respective worldviews are doomed to never meet at any point.

The way that these two seasons ended was bitter, unfortunate, and for a brief period of time after these games ended, seemingly unfair. The basketball team had its chances; hit even a couple of the many missed layups/bunnies and trade one of those late Burke threes for a possession of actual offense and Michigan probably wins despite being outplayed. The hockey team had its chances. The Wolverines outshot Cornell and had over double the PP opportunities, including 5 in the excruciating second period. Any grievances about the ostensible "randomness" of the whole thing seem to be directed at the game of hockey itself rather than the format of the tournament. The simple fact that Michigan has come away with only two titles throughout this over two decade long stretch of tournament appearances is irrelevant.  These things happen for a reason, and as much as we like to write these losses off as either instances of grand cosmic misfortune or the absurdity that is the single-elimination format, it's all about cold, hard probabilities and inglorious toil. Even with probability and work ethic on one's side, it may not work out, and not for lack of luck. Hockey is often beyond explanation in this way, and by explanation I mean an explanation that is all-inclusive/comprehensive or one that we want to hear, that assuages the pangs of frustration that follow such a loss. Sometimes it bounces this way or that way. Why? It just does, and it does often, so that patterns seem to appear to us even though they do not exist.

Hockey is "close but no cigar" taken to its logical extreme. It is a sport that, in a way, mirrors life: work really hard and you might get you want. Tight defense, shots, PP opportunities...these don't guarantee success. Despite the attempts to distill the essence of sports into verifiable statistics and formulas, it is often just a game of hamfisted probability. Ascribing vague notions of luck or fate to the outcomes of sport or life seems a bit pointless, but the process of coping is, in a way, inherently pointless.

Then again, maybe this is my own way of coping. Maybe looking at the outcome of the Cornell and Ohio games in the way that I am is just my way of distancing myself from the proceedings. I know that I didn't always look at things this way, as if these losses suggest anything more than the fact that, on these days, my team lost because of X, Y, and Z. In light of the Sugar Bowl and all the breathless talk of redemption that accompanied it--from many, including myself--this all might seem a little hypocritical. Maybe. Then again, as sports fans, we often say what benefits us at the time, even when we may claim otherwise in other situations.

What is clear to me is that Shawn Hunwick and all of the other seniors wanted this more than you or I. The same of course applies to Zack and Stu. The level to which they wanted this eclipses yours, rendering your frustration inconsequential by comparison. After the layers of personal frustration and other somewhat selfish (but understandable) reactions are cast away to the ether, all that remains is memory. I've said this many times before and I'll say it again: championships may come or they may not, but the memories that these players give us while representing Michigan are what matter most because they are what endure. While I would have hoped for a better end for Hunwick, Novak, and Douglass, or a victory in The Game for Henne, Hart, and Long, it becomes increasingly immaterial as the years go on.

One day, a young child will be taken to Yost for the first time. A mother or father will be able to tell this child, their child, this tabula rasa of a being, the story of Shawn Hunwick. This story could quite possibly plant the very first inkling of the beauty of sport in this child's head. True to hockey form, it also might not, but there will be another day when another child is told the same story. This will happen again and again until one day, the child finally understands. I truly do not know if being able to tell the tale of a championship once won is worth more or less than that. Let the details come later.

Good Times, Bad Times

Michigan basketball circa 2008-2012: intermittent hope and despair

For the second year in a row, Michigan faces the possibility of losing its floor general. Morris and Burke have been the Lewis and Clark of the hardwood, blazing new trails of achievement heretofore unknown in my lifetime. On their backs, the Michigan basketball program was able to crawl out of the chaotic primordial soup of untapped evolutionary potential in which it laid mired for so long. Although it seems "unfair," as if this is happening to us at a seemingly disproportionate rate, there's an obvious explanation for this perception: Michigan just hasn't been good enough to be in this sort of a position until now. The world of modern college basketball is a double-edge sword at its soul; a certain level of success ends up being a sort of punishment, not unlike a professional team existing in the no man's land between "teams that totally tanked" and "legitimate contenders."

The situation is a little more dire this time around. In its attempts to replace Morris this past season, Michigan at the very least had the option of playing a freshman Burke (in addition to Douglass, who was an unspectacular but obviously capable ball handler). The options for a Burke-less 2012-13 season are seemingly non-existent at the moment. Stu is gone and the little-used Brundidge is transferring, leaving a true freshman Stauskas as a potential ball handler (a guy who isn't a point like Stu wasn't one), a walk-on Eso Akunne, and Amedeo Della Valle, who is listed as a PG on Rivals and a SG on Scout, and, you know, hasn't committed to Michigan yet. Needless to say, a Burke departure would foment a RUN TO THE HILLS scenario.

With all of that said, this moment was inevitable. As the season wound down, it was difficult not to acknowledge the possibility of a Morris Redux situation; Trey wasn't going to not take a look. Burke is in the awkward but tantalizing place known as "being good enough to consider leaving but perhaps not good enough to be a first rounder." With the April 10th deadline fast approaching, this may be a pointless exercise, but here are the reasons why Burke might and/or should return for an encore:

• Burke's father claims that he's received reports of Trey going anywhere from 18-24 in the draft. Of course, this does not jibe with most mock drafts, which leads one to fill in the blanks and assume that said reports are coming from the typically nefarious Wormtongue-ish sorts that are ruining college basketball (i.e. agents and other assorted shady dudes). Looking at the standings as they are, the 18-24 spots would be occupied by, as of Tuesday: 
• Denver--With Ty Lawson entrenched there, Trey's definitely not looking at competing for a starting spot here. Darius Morris's supposed YMRMFRSPA, Andre Miller, is going to be an UFA next season, so Trey could be a solid backup here, but do they want another short point guard on their roster? 
• Golden State--This could actually be an option, as GS only seems to have 3 pure guards, period: Stephen Curry, little-used rookie Charles Jenkins, and Klay Thompson, who is 6'7''. With the way that the Warriors like to run, I'm not sure this is a good fit for Trey, though. 
• Philadelphia--Jrue Holliday is a very solid young player, who also happens to be 6'4''...another backup at best situation here. 
• Houston--Kyle Lowry has come into his own the last couple of his seasons; he's averaging 16 ppg, 5 rpg, and 7 apg. He's also signed through the 2013-14 season. Goran Dragic is a solid young player off the bench who seems to have gotten better and better as this season has gone on, although I'm admittedly not familiar enough with his game to know if he's actually a 1 or if he's the standard NBA combo guard. 
• Indiana--Darren Collison is a similarly small PG so I'm not sure that the Pacers want a second guy like that. Plus, Collison has shot better from three this year (39%) than Burke did this season in Ann Arbor (35%), while also being a better defender. 
• Memphis--Mike Conley's contract was somewhat inexplicably at the time extended by 5 years in 2010, but he has since definitely earned that extension. Backup situation. 
• Boston--Despite some rumors that Rondo might be dealt, he's still there...Trey's probably not unseating him.  

With a little less than 20 games to go, the standings will probably be shaken up to some degree, but probably not in any significant way. Either way, the board as it stands is not too inviting if Trey wants a good shot at starting/going in the first round. 

• Of course, Darius Morris's NBA career thus far could end up serving as a cautionary tale that Burke seriously considers when making his decision. While Trey is a better college player than Morris was, being 5'11'' and not being truly exceptional in some other aspects of his game do not help his NBA resume. 
• Re: the height factor, players have made it in the league while not being tall...it's just that they all do other things really well to make up for it. For instance, a guy like Darren Collison is: lightning quick, a very good defender, and a very solid 3-point shooter. Burke is not a transcendent athlete or 3-point shooter, and it's been proven that he can be pushed around on the pick and roll (also known as basically the only "offense" NBA teams deign to run). Odds are he isn't getting any taller, but if he can get a little stronger via another year of collegiate S&C and up his 3-point percentage, he becomes a desirable pick in next year's first round. 
• This is specious at best, but perhaps Brundidge's departure came on the heels of some good information that Trey would be coming back? Again, this one is a reach, but who knows. With Beilein seemingly having such little confidence in Brundidge to the point that Trey was playing outrageous minutes every game, there's probably little reason for Brundidge to believe that a similar scenario wouldn't play out next year. 

As for the cons, i.e. reasons why he might bounce? Well: 

• It's no secret that Trey and Jared Sullinger are friends...it's also no secret that Sullinger's return to Columbus for a second season has seen his draft stock dip to some extent. Sullinger is still a surefire first-rounder, and so his hypothetical drop in the draft is entirely different from what Trey would potentially go through, but there's no doubt that Sullinger's decision to return will be on Trey's mind. 
• Does Trey really want to go through another college season in which he is depended upon as heavily as he was this past season? That is, does he really want to subject himself to the physical burden of playing at minimum 35 minutes, often more, in basically every single game? While it's not like we're talking about a running back deciding to forego an additional year of pounding, the minutes do add up. 
• The general logic of NBA prospects vis-a-vis the draft and playing in college may compel Trey to leave. It seems that the majority of players who consider the draft end up, you know, leaving, whether it is the right decision or not. Like the 5-star recruit that comes into college envisioning no scenario in which he does not start over other highly touted guys, these draft fringe sorts inevitably feel the same way. Of course, there's The Money; even the NBA minimum seems like an infinite amount of money to a college kid, and, as we all know, college kids don't usually have long-term outcomes at the forefront of their worldview. 

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If you told me to make an amateur prediction, Id tell you that I'm leaning toward Trey returning. However, I would be lying to you if I said that I believed that with any sort of confidence. Thankfully, we don't have to wait too long to find out. 

Miscellaneous Minutiae, 3/20/2012

General Site Stuff: With the basketball season ending as abruptly, cruelly, and in somewhat-surprising-but-not-really fashion, not unlike Woody Harrelson's character in No Country For Old Men, the focus will of course shift back to Michigan footbaw. Yes, great news...except it's March.

With spring practice underway and the spring scrimmage in less than a month, there's some football substance to be talked about, including but not limited to: who will turn into Tecmo Bowl Bo Jackson because they lost/gained a certain amount of weight (and by "certain amount" I mean "any amount"), how much these coaches get it, and whether or not we are going to die against Alabama. After that, it's the Eliot-esque wasteland of rumor-mongering and general retching in the corner, a psychosomatic reaction to a world in which baseball is the only major sport being played at a given time (well, after the NBA and NHL playoffs are over).

There'll probably be a few more basketball posts to wrap up the season and look ahead to next year...after that it's back to being all football, all the time. Feel free to follow me on Twitter--also known as the thing in which all signs of civilization melt away, one hashtag at a time--and subscribe via the widgets to the left. Once I remember, I'll also add a link to my SB Nation profile for my stuff over at Maize 'n Brew.

Better Than Nothing: Spring practice is upon us, the next major step to having real football again (after Nation Signing Day). I ran through some spring ball questions on both the offense and the defense over at MnB. It would be redundant to reproduce all of those observations here, so just go read those if you want to know what I think about Will Campbell, what underclassmen I will definitely not irrationally tether my hopes and dreams to, and other important questions of our time. Here's the visual evidence that football things are happening:

For what it's worth, the group of linemen seen driving the sleds in the beginning goes as such from left to right: Lewan-Mealer-Barnum-Omameh-Schofield. That probably means nothing, but it seems like, if they were to play today, that that would be the starting 5. It's easy to say this in the doldrums of March, but that line is not half bad. Lewan and Omameh return, and Schofield swings out to the right side (where he would probably be an upgrade over Huyge), leaving LG and C as the only question marks. I would imagine that a guy like Kalis will get a chance to challenge Mealer, but I'm really rooting for #57, for obvious reasons.

Mattison Says Things of Various Interest: As representative of the new zeitgeist as Hoke's pressers have been, it's hard to argue against the fact that the coordinator pressers are infinitely more interesting. While some of the spring verbiage is bound to be fluff, much of what Mattison and Borges end up saying is actually pretty interesting. The presser transcript (HT: Heiko) is worth reading through, but here are the points I found most interesting, funny, or worth mentioning at this news-starved juncture in the offseason:

• On EE Jarrod Wilson:  “He’s young. I’ve seen that he’s a guy that’s got his books in his hand, and he just came from a class that he’s never seen before, and he saw some pretty girls probably, I hope."
• Re: Thomas Gordon, Mattison emphasized that he "must play faster" and "must play more reckless." I thought that was an interesting choice of words, and perhaps is a window into why Woolfolk took some playing time from Gordon despite the latter looking pretty good as a starter. It's important to keep in mind that he was moved to safety from the linebacker position under RR, so him not playing fast enough is not exactly a surprise. Gordon isn't the fleetest of foot to begin with, but one way to look faster without actually being faster is by knowing the system: a 4.6 guy that knows where he's going is faster than a 4.3 guy that has no idea what he's doing. This of course applies to the rest of the defense. 
• Regarding Craig Roh's move to SDE:  "Craig Roh will be a better football player moving into a 5-technique than he would be out on the edge where there’s a lot of open spaces." I'm so glad he wasted away as a linebacker for a year...as if you needed any more confirmation that the previous coaching staff had mostly no idea what it was doing on defense (and I say this as a once staunch supporter of RR). 

Silver Linings: Nick Baumgardner runs through the season that was, with a quote from Novak that just about sums it up in my mind, emphasis mine:

"A year ago, Darius (Morris) left, and everyone said we were screwed," Novak said. "We proved a lot of people wrong.

"We won the best conference in the country."

When I remember this season, I won't think about the way that it ended; I'll remember that it was the first time Michigan was able to accomplish something that gets you a banner in seemingly forever. Say you what you will about the Buckeyes and Spartans being better teams...they indisputably are better, at this point in time. The thing is...that banner is going up, and this time it's staying up.

If you need any more data to assuage your angst vis-a-vis how it ended, look at how the Big Ten teams have performed in the tournament: four teams in the Sweet 16, and it would have been five if Purdue had not done the standard "run the shot clock out and get a horrible shot" routine near the end. Yeah, Michigan won that conference, and anybody that wishes to denigrate this team can pry the share of that title out our cold, dead hands.

NCAA Silliness: Dennis Dodd on the Jamar Samuels thing. I am far from having the answers to how to remedy the situation of the modern student-athlete re: payment or not, and I know that rules are rules, but...I sort of have to wonder what the breaking point for all of this will be. Samuels was ruled ineligible for accepting a $200 payment from an AAU coach, because, according to the coach, Samuels "needed to eat." Again, rules are rules, but isn't it a bit ridiculous for someone to ask something like this in light of the modern college athlete's place relative to the multi-billion dollar institution of which he or she is a part and not allowed to directly benefit from:

Essentially what you have here is the AAU coach for a K-State basketball pipeline, financially supporting players. How is that fair to other Big 12 coaches or any coaches? 

He also references an NCAA enforcement officer once telling him that "if it wants to, it (the NCAA) can classify a ham sandwich as representative of the university's interests." If you can't tell, this piece is about as reactionary as it gets: yup, the NCAA is completely in the right guys, nothin' to see here.

This is nothing novel, but as awesome as college sports can be 99% of the time, there exists a dark, mostly nonsensical underbelly. I'm pretty sure we're going down a road which ends in players getting paid "legally," especially in light of the new 4-year scholarship thing...I mean, this can't keep going on indefinitely, right? We can't keep living in a world in which players can have their college careers destroyed--even if they actually do need money to eat, despite Dodd's belief that this is basically inconceivable--because of a measly $200 while everybody else involved gets to swim in pools of money like Scrooge McDuck? Nobody is calling for A-Rod-esque payouts for college athletes, but come on, make it somewhat equitable fergodsakes. People like Dodd--who back the NCAA unequivocally while also unwittingly revealing its ridiculousness--aren't really helping the cause.

Ann Arbor, never change: So, this happened. Some guy was all "I posit that The Corrections is not, in fact the worst thing ever...in fact, Winston, I do believe I somewhat fancy it."...and then it was on like Ernest Hemingway circa the late 1920s. Don't ask me why they're talking like they're from Victorian England and not Southeast Michigan, okay.

If the punchee was in fact a Franzenite, then the puncher was pretty much doing everybody a service. Hemingway is currently sending a thank you letter from the grave, the entirety of which reads like so: "Thanks." Ha, minimalism!

More? Eye on College Football spring practice primer on Michigan. Mark Titus on the tournament thus far...re: the Buick Verano commercial he is absolutely right.

Michigan-Ohio: The End

Michigan 60, Ohio 65

(Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) 

Trying to make sense of the NCAA Tournament is like trying to count the grains of sand on a beach. Once you've made what you believe to be a certain amount of progress--you've counted each and every singular grain in your hand--the tide comes in, obliterating everything, weakening your assertion by introducing something entirely new to your worldview. Upsets happen all the time; it is the ordered disorder of this entire thing, a relatively brief spectacle that can either build upon or utterly destroy the five-month slog that precedes it. How upset you should be after this is a product of your pre-conceived notions of Michigan's abilities relative to college basketball as a whole, the somewhat distorting effect of a shared conference title, and most importantly, to what extent you think Michigan "overachieved." For what it's worth, overachieving is not really a word I have any use for, generally, but in any case I think it's misapplied with respect to Michigan, anyway. Optimally/maximally achieving? Yes, I would agree with that. You can expect that people who call others in life overachievers probably look something like this:

Some of the following might sound overly negative or critical of the team and Beilein and the program's General Direction, but I want to make it clear that that is not my intention at all. Anybody that has any complaints about Beilein and the program on a macro level (i.e., not regarding things like his 2-foul strategy and other little strategic issues) is quite frankly an idiot and not somebody worth the time. The future is very bright. 

Michigan was somewhat of a victim of its own success in a way that actually hurt it come tourney time. Over-achieving is only a relevant descriptor if attached to the notion that "Michigan wound up with a 3-seed, an achievement that exceeded our own personal expectations" rather than "Michigan quite literally did things it was not/should not have been capable of doing with regularity." The thing is, you perceiving any sort of ceiling, with respect to individual players or a team as a whole, is based solely upon your likely misinformed notions, and so "overachieving" is a physical impossibility. Not coincidentally, "giving 110%" is also a stupid turn of phrase. You achieve what you can achieve but what you do achieve. It exists in a stasis universe, free from the warping free radicals that are your expectations and perceptions of how things should be. 

Michigan just finished a season in which it never lost consecutive games (until the very end, obviously) en route to a 13-5 conference record and a share of the regular season title. The problem is, when Michigan lost, they lost. Each defeat was an increasingly redundant episode in a series of autopsies; his low Offensive Rebounding Percentage, Inconsistent Perimeter Shooting, and lack of athleticism, yes, that's what got him in the end. Well, we knew that, Doc. Why are you surprised, then? After the initial, visceral reaction, after coming to grips with being on the losing end of the ever shameful tournament "upset," could we honestly say that this wasn't a distinct possibility? 

Of course not. At this point, Michigan is basically a mid-major that happens to be in a major conference. That's not meant to sound like an insult, but, rather, a statement of where Michigan was this season, physically, depth-wise, and talent-wise. That will change next season, when Michigan will go from having Morgan and Smotrycz as its only "bigs" to a roster that is overflowing with front court options and size up and down the roster, generally. McGary, GRIII, Stauskas, Biefeldt, and Horford are all essentially being added to the fold next year (the first three will of course be freshman, Biefeldt is coming off a redshirt year, and Horford will return from an injury that kept him out for most of this season), and with every meaningful contributor outside of the two seniors returning, the fundamental problems that persistently loomed whenever Michigan went scoreless for extended periods of time or couldn't end a defensive possession on the glass will probably cease to persist. Michigan will undergo a wholesale genetic transformation next year, and the feeling that Michigan's potential success is a largely fragile, tenuous thing--like two people capably throwing an egg to one another from thirty yards apart without breaking it--should by and large fade away, as should the feeling that Michigan is phenotypically mid-major in every way while simultaneously carrying the genotype of a major conference. 

As Michigan battled back, there was a point where I thought that this might not have been an upset at all. Ohio was the more athletic, aggressive team throughout the contest. Burke et al looked like they had bricks tied to their ankles; tired, slow, athletically deficient. Some have argued that Ohio had the two best players on the floor, and while I'm not sure that that is the case, it is one that can be cogently argued. 

The fact that Beilein was able to make this work in the Big Ten with a squad that could, in all honesty, be less talented than the MAC champion, is truly a wonder. Unfortunately, Beilein can only conjure up so many acts of tactical sorcery before the cruel physical realities of Michigan's roster catch up to them. Via Beilein's tactical brilliance and Trey Burke being Michigan won many more games than it lost this season, but, in the Big Dance, it only takes one. Michigan's style of play lends itself to having that "one" play out at any time, whether against a maniacally fast Arkansas team on the road, top-to-bottom talented squads like OSU and MSU, or in the first round against a 13-seed from the MAC. 

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A couple days have passed and the sting of a season cut short in this way has long subsided. Consider an alternate reality in which Michigan loses the Sugar Bowl in OT: the Coale catch is called a touchdown and Michigan is subsequently unable to move the ball, as had been the case all game. This reality would have been a sour one, but it wouldn't have completely wiped away the twelve games that came before, and, for the seniors, long careers full of memories of moments of brilliance that transcend any piece of paper on which records are written and stats recorded. I assume that most Michigan fans feels the same about this. 

Well, as much of a cop-out as it may seem, I mostly feel the same way about this. This season has been incredibly fun. Back when Zack and Stu were freshmen, Michigan basketball was truly fun for the first time in a long time, and this year was like that drawn to its logical end. The tournament in Maui (in which we got our first glimpses of what Trey Burke could do), the first Northwestern game, Purdue on the road, beating the Spartans at home, Jordan Morgan outplaying Jared Sullinger, the second Northwestern game, the Minnesota game last Friday, and so many other memories...linger. One loss does not incinerate all of that. As much as I still feel we were capable of making a run to the Sweet 16 and being a tough out for a team like UNC, it wasn't the reality that came to be. The fact that people often fill out multiple brackets--sometimes even six, or seven, or more, even--is demonstrative of the fact that this crazy tournament is simply a royal rumble between a nearly infinite set of permutations, one of which becomes the tournament that we actually come to watch. This permutation saw Michigan lose in the first round; so it goes. 

If there's any reason for any disappointment to persist, it's for the fact that Zack and Stu could not go out on better terms. In January, the football team showed us that sometimes a cosmic payoff awaits at the end of a long, difficult journey. The basketball team, on Friday, showed that the aforementioned is just quixotic gibberish, or, at minimum, doesn't represent the rule. 

It hurts that, in the process of losing, Michigan's constitutional flaws were regularly manifested by Stu's and Zack's play. It hurts that, as we entered the second half, many were calling for Zack to eat bench while Smotrycz played the 4 in his stead. It hurt that, late in the game--I don't remember exactly when--the ball was kicked to Zack in the corner, standing there, open for a brief second. He hesitated and didn't take the shot that he had made many times before. Several minutes prior, I thought: I'm going to laugh when Zack comes in late in this game and hits a big shot to give Michigan the win, and everything else will be forgotten and words like GRIT will be bandied about facetiously. It didn't happen. 

There will be a time to be excited about next year's reinforcements and what they bring relative to the departing seniors, about how the coming season decidedly won't be like the disappointing post-Lee & Merritt 2009-10 season. That time is not now. I've said more than a word about the seniors's contributions and what they have meant to this program. In spite of this game and their limitations as players, they have laid the groundwork for Michigan's future success. Without Zack and Stu, there is no McGary, GRIII, Stauskas, etc in a Michigan uniform. The ending did not befit the journey, but wasn't the journey fun? 

Miscellaneous Bullets: 

• Trey Burke and the pick and roll. As a basketball play, I'm not the biggest fan in the world of the pick and roll. Part of this is due to the fact that my high school team played a strict brand of basketball straight out of Hoosiers: straight man-to-man, 4 passes, so on and so forth. This offense did not include any ball screens, and much of my bias against them thus stems from that experience. In addition, many teams, in college and the pros alike (moreso the latter) have "offenses" that essentially consist of the P&R and, you know, aimless dribbling. It's gotten to the point that analysts refer to things like "the pick and roll" offense, and I sort of just shake my head a little bit. These kids and their crazy music and their ball screens! With these GET OFF MY LAWN points out of the way, there's no denying that it is a dangerous and easy to employ basketball play if you have a PG like Trey and a guy like Smotrycz that can pop out or a mobile guy like Morgan that can roll downhill with speed and then thunder dunk in your face. With that said, the word is out: hedge hard and odds are Burke won't be able to handle it. Maybe an added 5-10 pounds in the offseason is in order? Also, HE IS A FRESHMAN...this has been said a billion times already and that isn't even enough. 

• Threes, Threes, Threes. Michigan had brought the deficit to 3 before firing off a series of unnecessary 3s. I'm not sure why any defender is ever fooled by this, but when Trey has the ball up top it's pretty obvious when he's going to give it token dribble and a shimmy or two before jacking up a three. It's obvious the first time and it's definitely obvious the third or fourth time. I sort of have to wonder whether this was by design or if Trey was just sort of in gunslinger mode; the former would be on Beilein and would clearly be the more disappointing of the two options. I would have liked to see have seen us try something different on one of those possessions, but, as they say, it's in the past. It didn't seem like we were really running much of anything near the end, probably because we weren't running anything. I'm kind of dancing around it, but yeah, the offensive strategy at the end of this game--rather, the lack thereof--is on Beilein. 

• Nothing Left. I know that it's been a long season, but it's somewhat curious that a lot of the guys just looked like their legs were completely dead. You would think that having almost a week to rest up for this game would've seen them coming out strong, but the same thing occurred during the Minnesota game in the BTT coming off of the regular season finale. Then again, you can only play with essentially 6--7 if we're counting Vogrich--for so long before the minutes start to seriously add up. 

• Not Hangin' With Mr. Cooper. Brian sure was right about Cooper. He took a couple shots that made me go "wow, is he really taking that shot?" You know those threes several feet behind the arc that Stu will take on occasion? Yeah, DJ Cooper shoots those ALL THE TIME with aplomb. It's not like this wasn't in the scouting report; we knew that there has never been a shot he didn't like or thought he couldn't make. It's just frustrating that a guy who shoots 35% from the field (31.6% from 3) was able to fill it up in the manner that he did. There was a defensive breakdown or two on our part but most of his shots were just "pro shots," as Dylan put it. I would've liked to see more Stu on him rather than Trey, but oh well. 

• Jordan Morgan. Despite the prominent deficiencies in his game, Jordan Morgan has dunked his way into my top 10 favorite Michigan basketball players. With that said, he absolutely needs to add something to his offensive arsenal--something that he can be comfortable doing a few times a game and not once or twice a month maybe--that can take the pressure off of the perimeter guys. With McGary coming in this becomes less urgent, but I don't think an 8-10 foot jumper is too much to ask for. Morgan has his struggles (even against a MAC team like Ohio) because he doesn't have above average athleticism, and while his footwork got him to a the basket a couple of times in this game, it could have been deemed "awkward" at best. Going forward, I think this awkward routine around the basket can be avoided if JMo can develop confidence in a short jumper in put back situations. It seems unlikely now, but remember when Zack and Stu pretty much couldn't do anything at all off the dribble? A short-mid range jumper would be JMo's equivalent "skill that gradually improves and becomes a legitimate tool as an upperclassman." 

Lookin' For Some Peace of Mind: South Region Preview

Yesterday I briefly surveyed the landscape of the East region. Of course, since then, Fab Melo was ruled ineligible, which only further emphasizes the negative slant I took when looking at the Orangemen. I still feel incredibly uncomfortable with picking Vanderbilt and FSU to make a deep run, but that was yesterday...this is today. Onward, to the South.

You shall not pass. (via Kentucky Basketball) 

Kings of the Hill
This region features the Kentucky Wildcats, who have been by and large invincible this season save for a last-second three at Indiana--a game that feels like it was played years ago at this point--and a slip up against the 'Dores last weekend. Such is life. Still, the Wildcats are the favorites to go all the way, and for good reason. There's not a team in the nation that can match up with Kentucky's balanced scoring (4 players averaging double digit points, with Miller and Teague averaging 9.6 and 9.4 ppg respectively), and Anthony Davis is simply a terror on both ends of the floor. I hope he gets to enjoy a successful tourney run, because odds are he's not going to do much winning with whatever NBA team drafts him first overall in the upcoming draft (I'm looking at you, Charlotte Bobcats).

The only real concern is youth, as an experienced Vanderbilt squad gave UK some of its toughest games this season (including the Cats' second loss, obviously). Still, it's obviously not impossible to win with a young team.

Otherwise, the in my opinion weakest 2-seed in the tournament resides here in the form of Duke, with Baylor being the 3 (another team I'm not really waxing poetic about). If a 2 or a 3 seed goes down in the opening round, these two teams have a pretty good chance of being that team.

Teams That Will Somewhat Inexplicably Make Me Look Stupid
The two obvious candidates here are Indiana and UNLV, whom I have making it to the Sweet 16 and Elite 8, respectively. That's right, I have the Runnin' Rebs going to the Elite 8.

The tale of the tape vis-a-vis Indiana is that they don't play much defense, which also happens to be the reason why I believe Duke is not a legitimate contender (the fact that they were in contention for a 1-seed not too long ago is ridiculous). Indiana has the firepower to keep up with a lot of teams, but if the 3s don't fall then you can expect the same sort of thing as when Michigan's don't fall--namely, PAIN. I have IU eeking out a close one against New Mexico State before beating VCU in the second round, though, FWIW.

I like UNLV because they can score the ball (76.7 ppg), their assist to turnover ratio is pretty good (1.34, good for 13th in the country), and they shoot the 3 as a team about as well as Duke. Chace Stanback is a 6'8'' G-F that shoots the three at a 46.4% clip; I think he could be a big mismatch for whomever Duke or Baylor decides to throw at him. In any case, UNLV is my sort of Cinderella team of the 2012 tournament...now go out and make me look stupid, you guys!

Double Digit Seeds of Note
VCU is an obvious one to watch out for here as far as the 12-seeds go because, uh, last year. I have them picking off Wichita State in the first round and no I will not be providing you with any cheap Shaka/Shocker puns.

Otherwise, I think Xavier could be a team to watch, as much as The Brawl still might be imprinted on your mind as the lasting image of 2011-12 Xavier basketball. They have been very up and down but there's no doubt that they could pull it together to beat a Notre Dame that I'm quite frankly not sure deserved a 7-seed and a very flawed Duke team in the Round of 32. Or, you know, they could completely flame out in the first round and go quietly into the night.

Goliath's Fatal Flaws 
Despite last weekend's loss, I don't believe UK has any serious flaws. Duke and Baylor, on the other hand, are different stories. Duke has struggled on the defensive end, and they of course do lean on their 3-point shooting more than a true big name contender probably should. Ryan Kelly's foot injury is also an issue going forward, which isn't really fair to call a "flaw" but is something to watch out for.

Of Baylor's 7 losses, 5 were against the top two teams in their conference (3 against Missouri, 2 against Kansas). Their two other losses were against the next two Big 12 teams in the standings, ISU and KSU. Is this significant come tourney time? The answer is admittedly "maybe not," but being unable to take it to the top half of the conference doesn't exactly inspire confidence in a team that is supposed to go far in this tournament.

Intriguing First Round Matchup 
The 8/9 matchup here is the best of its kind in this tournament, pitting two interesting teams in UCONN and Iowa State against each other. UCONN's struggles are well-documented, with the narrative from many coaches (namely Jim Boeheim) and some analyst types being that they would be far from surprised if UCONN played to their talent and made a run. I for one am more than skeptical, but there's no doubt that they do have the talent to make a run, and far stranger things have happened in March. The good thing about having a relatively meaningless regular season (again, I say relatively) is that you can suddenly turn it on in mid-March and vindicate yourself. Unfortunately for UCONN, UK awaits in the next round, which could make any sort of second wind the Huskies may have somewhat irrelevant.

Iowa State is a team that we all familiar with, having played them earlier in the season in the non-conference schedule. Royce White is obviously the headliner of this ISU squad, and he's a guy who definitely has an NBA future ahead of him. The Cyclones also have an array of eager and capable 3-point gunners to complement the versatile White, making them a team that you would rather not have to face at this point in the season. I'm not sure that UCONN will be ready to check ISU's shooters, allowing the Cyclones to advance to the next round with the unenviable task of facing Kentucky.