We're only a couple of days away from MADNESS, so I feel somewhat compelled to put my baseless predictions/things that will inevitably be wrong down on the Internet for posterity. I'm going to try to get through all four regions before Thursday, and today I'll start with the Syracuse-headlining East region.
Kings of the Hill
Syracuse, Ohio State, and Florida State come in with the top three seeds in this region, with only the Seminoles coming off of a conference tournament title. The Buckeyes of course fell in their rubber match with the Dawson-less Spartans, and Syracuse fell to Cincinnati in the Big East tournament last Friday. I think this is probably the strongest 1-3 group of any region.
Teams That Will Somewhat Inexplicably Make Me Look Stupid
This section provides two obvious candidates in Vanderbilt and FSU, both of which I have making it to the regional final, with the Seminoles getting to the Final Four. With Vanderbilt, the reasons for suspicion are obvious. In the last four years, they've lost to Murray State, Richmond, and Siena in their first-round matchups. Yes, this Vanderbilt squad is an upperclassmen-laden one that should be equipped to handle the pressures of the tournament more than most of the field, but the consistent string of early exits is worrisome. With that said, I think the 'Dores get through the Fightin' Tommy Amakers and Wisconsin in the second round before ousting the Orangemen in the Sweet 16.
Florida State, on the other hand, invokes the "be suspicious of teams that get hot and win their conference tournaments" rule. Plus, there is still some irrational residual suspicion emanating from football season when I try to consider what the 'Noles will or won't do. I think they get through the Bonnies and Longhorns before beating the Buckeyes, who I think will see their inconsistent shooting knock them at some point.
Double-Digit Seeds of Note
This region seems the least likely to produce a Cinderella story, but insofar as I have to pick one I think the 10-seeded West Virginia Mountaineers are the most equipped to make a run. On first glance, their sub-20 win record does not inspire confidence (19-13, 9-9), but upon closer inspection they have had a number of close calls against the powerhouses of the Big East. In a sense, they're kind of like Northwestern except they're actually in the field (sorry, Northwestern...one day). Senior forward Kevin Jones fills up the stat sheet in a big way (20 ppg, 11 rpg), and I'm fairly certain that bearded forward Denis Kilicli is an actual grizzly bear that somehow made it through the NCAA Clearinghouse. With Gonzaga having to travel across the country to take on the Mountaineers, a first round 7/10 mini-upset is certainly not unreasonable.
Goliath's Fatal Flaws
As mentioned, the Buckeyes' outside shooting will be their undoing at some point; it only takes one poor night to send a team home, and as great as Sullinger is offensively and Craft is on the defensive end, if Buford et al don't bring their best from three then a Sweet 16 exit is possible.
However, in probably the most mind-boggling statistic in recent memory, Syracuse sits at 341st out of 345 teams in defensive rebounding percentage; they are the anti-Michigan State, in that sense. I can't remember the last time such a poor rebounding team made a Final Four run (or even was a 1-seed, period).
Intriguing First Round Matchup
I'm not incredibly high on Texas but, to their credit, they are still in fact Texas and thus have talent. Their opening round opponent, Cincinnati, has been on fire of late. I was at MSG for Saturday's Big East title game, however, which was incredibly ugly, with the Bearcats scoring 14 points in the first half. Neither team seems particularly equipped to survive past the Round of 32, but I think this will likely provide the most exciting opening round game in this region. Although he hasn't been terribly efficient, Texas's J'Covan Brown has been scoring like a madman, and I think Texas gets a memorable performance here from him en route to a victory before eventually getting bounced by the Seminoles in the next round.
Trey Burke, in a state of utter discomfiture with the state of things and unable
to reconcile the proceedings with his preexisting worldview, as
Aaron Craft beckons him to "come at me, bro." (AP/Michael Conroy)
There are times when, while watching your team play, you can come to the conclusion that today is simply not your team's day. Saturday's game was like the first half of Permian's state title game performance against Dallas Carter in Friday Night Lights, only instead of being confined to a single half it was drawn out throughout the rest of a very miserable 40 minutes of basketball.
Michigan had a single, lonely point well into the game, and it only took a couple of minutes for me to start to expect Jared Sullinger's shots to start bursting into flames upon their descent into the basket. It was pretty obviously not our day no later than five minutes into the game. What then remained was approximately 35 minutes of uncomfortable twisting in the wind, a performance, like the regular season losses in Columbus and East Lansing, serve to demonstrate just how far this team is from being able to beat a Buckeye squad like this (and other equivalent teams) without having an above-average percentage of low-percentage shots go in, or home court advantage, or the right bounces at the right times exactly when they are needed.
If not for Corey Person's best MJ impression in the waning minutes of the game, Michigan would have put up 48, just a point less than their output in the meeting in Columbus in late January. Unlike the game in Ann Arbor, Jordan Morgan was not the one who knocks this time around; Sullinger scored over, around, and through him en route to a 24-point effort. Trey Burke lost the rubber match against Aaron Craft, forcing Trey into hopeless spots on the floor and long-range shots with a measure of difficulty mirroring that of Trey's final missed three against Arkansas. Michigan shot 25 treys and made four; one of them came from Josh Bartelstein. This was the very definition of a rout.
With most of the disconcerting details out of the way, it would do most people well to remember that the Buckeyes are pretty darn good, in spite of some late season signs of vulnerability, Sullinger's apparently sliding draft stock (not that that means much at all), and Buford's THJ-esque slide into a somewhat inexplicable offensive slump. This is a team that would have been a one-seed if not for yesterday's loss, and while the manner in which Michigan lost was without a doubt disappointing, it was by no means unprecedented. As I've said before, when Michigan loses it's quite clear why they do so, and in a way that's a sliver lining, albeit a meager one. It's not anything that can be rectified right now unless Jordan Morgan magically becomes a 7-footer between now and Friday and Stu Douglass or Zack Novak develop the ankle-breaking handles of The Professor, also known as "the one white guy on the AND1 tour."
The far more disconcerting performance was Michigan's quarterfinal matchup against a Minnesota team that many seemed to look at as a sort of Clemson-esque circa the 2009 tournament, in that they are an athletic team that isn't necessarily the most skilled or polished. Whether or not this analogy was actually cogent, Michigan's inability to get anything going on offense outside of Trey Burke until the later stages of the game was a little worrisome. Minnesota certainly had more to play for, and Michigan having not played since the previous Sunday did no favors in getting the Wolverines off to a good start. In the same vein, Michigan won't be playing again until Friday, an eternity from now. Once the previews start rolling in, I think it will be difficult not to come into with some deep-seated yet largely unarticulated concern as to whether or not Michigan will replicate its performance against Minnesota in its opening round matchup against the Bobcats.
It's arguable that Michigan actually got a better deal by getting a 4-seed and thus avoiding Belmont. With that said, it's very easy to envision Michigan getting off to a slow start against Ohio, setting the stage for another down to the wire outing. As great as that tying shot from Evan Smotrycz was, I think we would all like to avoid that. Luckily, Michigan's pod presents no enormous mismatches; Temple does have 3 bigs that are 6'9'' or taller, but only the 6'11'' Michael Eric seems to be a significant contributor. Ohio has some firepower in the form of DJ Cooper and a couple solid forwards that are approximately the same size as Jordan Morgan. Cal and USF are both fairly meh squads. In short, none of these teams are the Buckeyes or Spartans*, of course, so any hand-wringing on the heels of Saturday's loss should have by now evaporated in the lobe of the brain that produces rational thoughts (that exists, right?). If painful memories of the trio of drubbings at the hands of the Spartans and Buckeyes should arise, with reason, it will be only until the round of 16, where the Tar Heels likely await.
I don't need to tell you that that would mean that Michigan had advanced to the Sweet 16 if the above scenario unfolds. That isn't half bad for a team that is led by a freshman, has no size or depth, and whose offense revolves around a general artificial series of passes leading to low-percentage threes, if some analysts are to be believed (they aren't). Predictably, many said analysts are already picking us to get bounced immediately--yes, Gottlieb--to which I remind all of this.
Most importantly, we are nearing the ends of the Michigan careers of Zack Novak and Stu Douglass. No matter what happens, remember that this is supposed to be fun, that it has been fun, and that despite the importance placed on the 1-6 games that Michigan is about to play, you cannot erase the flesh and blood and the ever-lingering resonance of what has led us to this point. These things are constant, the only things in life that evade the atrophying effect of time's passage.
Enjoy the ride. Go Blue.
*Remember, very few are; they're in the overall top 8 for a reason.
Another year has come and gone, and the Northwestern Wildcats will not be a part of the tournament field once again. The Wildcats fell in their first round matchup with the Gophers yesterday, a game went to overtime and was quite possibly a microcosm of the entire season and even the entire history of Northwestern basketball. Of course it took overtime for Northwestern to eventually be put down. Instead of zooming off screen right before putting down the horse with the broken leg, Northwestern's demise is always as gruesome as possible and they always make you watch...oh they make you watch.
In the waning seconds of regulation with the game tied at 61, Minnesota's Andre Hollins took a step back jumper that clanged off of the rim, resulting in a long rebound that hit the floor with approximately 3 seconds left. An eternity. Civilizations rose and fell, and many an outlook straddled the increasingly stark line of demarcation between hope and nihilism.
JerShon Cobb grabbed the rebound on the bounce and tossed it to Sobolewski, a step or two ahead of him. Sobolewski made it just past the three point line, shooting off of one foot, almost like a long range tear drop shot. The tear drop streaked across the air, pulled along ever so slightly by the invisible gravitational pull of each eye present tracking the ball in its ascent and descent. It clanged off the heel of the rim: could there have been any other outcome?
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Northwestern will once again miss the tournament, and this season will have served as arguably the most painful campaign in a long series of seasons ending in ennui and all five known stages of grief. The Wildcats faced 11 RPI Top 50 opponents and came away victorious only once, but it's the unbearable closeness of many of those losses that makes any of this relevant. In and of themselves, they are simply good efforts met by slightly better efforts from significantly more talented squads, but together they accrue into a legitimately cosmic gripe: why me? The Powerball machine of life has spat out wrong number after number in Evanston's direction, the accompanying losing tickets providing enough loose paper to build a flammable, ironic monument that gets close to piercing the upper crust of Earth's atmosphere but doesn't quite get to peek its head out amongst the stars.
It wasn't too long ago that this was the case for our very own Wolverines. Under Amaker, the Wolverines on two occasions missed out on the tournament only to go on to win the NIT once and lose in the title game the other time, as well as the 2002-03 season, which could have possibly ended in a tournament berth if not for the self-imposed post-season ban (Michigan was a 3-seed in that Big Ten Tournament). Amaker's final team needed to beat the top-seeded Buckeyes in order to potentially win a tourney berth, but at least it was there for the taking. Of course, the unmentioned years of that era were forgettable in the worst sense.
Michigan has come a long way since its attempt to move on via the Ellerbe hire and the Amaker Era, one of often tantalizing brilliance interspersed with mind-numbing incompetence and failure at the systemic level. Since Beilein's arrival in 2007, Michigan has made the tournament three times, won two tournament games, and likely has a 3-seed in the Big Dance locked up barring a loss today. I don't need to tell you that that we've been to the tournament in the Beilein Era more times than Northwestern has in the entirety of its basketball history; this is not meant as a dig but rather another impetus to sit back and truly appreciate what we have here.
A couple of years ago, during the Year of Unmet Expectations that was the 2009-10 season, I felt much like BYCTOM after Evan Turner hit that shot. I wondered if success was an attainable thing, and if the previous season was just a Coke machine in the desert. Turner's shot went in with as much metaphysical certainty in its trajectory as Sobolewski's heave lacked in certainty.
So, Northwestern fan that isn't Mike Wilbon or Mike Greenberg, I know how it feels. I've been there...well, close. I've stared into the abyss of the NIT and the paralyzing notion of a certain thing's seeming impossibility, and I lived to tell about it. While I cannot promise that it will get better--especially as Michigan at its worst is still privy to far greater resources and, probably, institutional "want to" vis-a-vis the basketball program--I can say with certainty that as much as you may or may not believe that a deficit of luck had something to do with this year's failures (and past failures), a surplus of luck, in turn, is in fact decidedly not what would be the driving force behind any future success. When you lose close game after close game, luck is no longer a reasonable explanation. Leave the superstition to the Cubs fans, please.
Michigan went from losing close games to winning them, not because they "learned how to win" or an attitude of winning--whatever that means--was installed. Michigan did it by hiring a brilliant tactician with an eye for talent. I know what you're thinking, and no, I'm not saying that Northwestern needs to fire Bill Carmody, although I will say I was a little surprised when I recently discovered that he has been at Northwestern since 2000 (in this era of "firecoachX.com" sites, it's kind of impressive that he's still hanging around despite not having taken them to one tournament appearance). I think a little more alumni support and perhaps the decline of the Illinois basketball program (hypothetical, of course), would do wonders for the Wildcats' ability to compete, but the thing that bridges the gap between a continuous series of close encounters and the other side, the land of the other half--the winners--is not luck but something that is obvious even to the layman. Northwestern's last field goal in regulation came with just under five minutes remaining, and, additionally, only one field goal was scored in overtime. Somehow, I don't imagine Beilein's 12th Michigan team looking so unequal to the task of vanquishing the apparition of superstition, that luck has a regular hand in our affairs.
Things We Coulda Done: Our very own offensive coordinator appeared on the Huge Show, and although generic sports talk aspersions apply vis-a-vis Huge, this interview, and sports talk radio in general, there is one quote that, in this bleak stretch of the offseason, can be considered at least moderately interesting. When asked about whether or not there was anything that he would have possibly done differently:
Well I think from a schematic perspective we probably--you know early on we were still kinda testing the waters with how much under center play we would have and we knew that we wanted to do some of that because we wanted to feature some of our tailbacks a little more and take a little pressure off Denard...and I think that had we to do it over again we would've been a little more spread offense early on and gotten better at that.
He goes on to expand on that, using the appropriate word "weaning" to describe the process of slowly filtering out the I-form/under center/non-spread part of the offense in favor of the spread that Michigan had begun to perfect with Denard under RR. The point itself isn't necessarily that interesting but it is kind of cool to hear Al (or any coordinator at a high profile program) say that sort of thing out loud. The coaching business is one in which mistakes--or even talk/intimation of mistakes having been made at some point--are anathema, and so it's refreshing to see that he is humble enough to admit that he would've have even done anything differently at all.
Who knows what would have happened had Michigan not spent the first three quarters of the Notre Dame game uselessly plugging away under center. In an alternate universe where Michigan decided to spread 'n shred all game, that game likely doesn't turn out to be the exercise in coronary-inducing horribawesomeness that it was. Clearly, Borges realized that a combination of 75% derp, 25% DENARD is the perfect mixture if you want to produce a game for the ages; he is obviously some sort of alchemist and/or sorcerer. Don't ask him about bubble screens, though, because that stuff's basically his hemlock.
Also, in case you were wondering and didn't feel like listening till the end, there are not "Brady's Bunch" signs anywhere in the hallways of the Michigan coaching offices. So, there's that.
Dolla Dolla Bills Y'all: Are you a person with not very much money? Would you like to have more money? Well, you're in luck! As part of a 6-day "executive education program,"Dave Brandon, Brady Hoke, and John Beilein--and others, including softball coach Carol Hutchins--will be disseminating their leadership experience to the great unwashed masses. Perhaps after consuming the boundless business acumen of these figures, forged in the competitive fires of modern collegiate athletics, you can have more money than you currently have. Profit! Unfortunately for you, person with no money, this program will set you back approximately $15,000. Oh, there's always a catch.
This will of course spark the usual "DAVE BRANDON IS AN EVIL BUSINESSMAN ARGHHFHF" yelling match across the Michigan Internet, which is an argument that I am generally not too concerned with. It's not that that I don't care or think that everything Dave Brandon does is in the best interest of the maize and blue rather the green, it's that the only salient point here, in my opinion, is what Brady Hoke will say during said program. My idealistic expectations for what a Brady Hoke-led seminar on business and/or "how to get paid, son" does not include bland power point presentations, corporate buzzwords like synergy and leverage (although leverage may pop up under a very different context*), or other such empty theatrics. No, Brady Hoke's presentation would simply be him calling up each member of the audience, lining up before them and yelling "Set...HIT." Over and over again. That, and a brief message on the importance of brand marketing:
*PAD LEVEL HURRRRRRRRRR
Third Time's a Charm...OR IS IT?: As Big Ten tourney time is upon us, I got to thinking about Michigan's potential opponents in the quarterfinal round. Most would agree that Northwestern would be somewhat of a nightmare of a matchup, given the closeness of the two regular season contests and the Wildcats' unique offensive stylings. I feel confident enough in saying that the Wildcats will win, meaning that we will end up facing them for the dreaded third time in a single season.
I did some aimless Googling around to find the answer for why beating a team three times in one season is notoriously difficult. I did not find anything substantive, as most of the results were simply articles containing quotes from players and coaches saying that "beating a team threes times is difficult." As you might suspect, it is pretty much just another one of those sports-isms that we could do without. It's sort of like when a child asks their Mom or Dad to explain how something like gravity works: it just does, honey. Why is it hard to beat a team thrice in one season? IT JUST IS, OKAY.
Having engaged in two OT contests against the Wildcats, Michigan is literally more familiar with Northwestern than they are with any other team. If Michigan loses, it will be likely for these reasons in this approximate, extremely unscientific order:
1) Poor outside shooting/too many threes (i.e., 38 of them)
2) THJ reverting to Evil Handlebar Mustache-wearing Three Point Attempting THJ
3) Morgan's shoulder still being even vaguely stingery
4) John Shurna looks like Steve Novak from outside
5) Luka Mirkovic
6) Some mystical force that somehow prevents teams from defeating the same opponent three times in the same academic year
Times They Are 'A Changin': As the college football world continues to drift in the ether of non-action, the only comforting thing is that, at the very least, the People That Matter are talking about change. Larry Scott, who has seemingly been running point on the playoff discussion amongst the relevant ADs, says:
"Once we start to get to the point where a consensus is emerging around a model or two, that's when conferences will be asked to kind of officially vote on something," Scott said. "It's a little hard to predict when exactly but it's probably summertime.
"I don't know if there will be a point where our conference declares exactly what it supports until there's a specific proposal in front of us. We're kind of far from that point and there's a lot more work that I need to do and my colleagues from other conferences need to do to narrow options and think of all the implications."
Yes, this process will continue to be incredibly annoying in every way. There will probably be many stupid things along the way, and you should not be surprised when you hear these things. For example, Mike Slive's insistence that a potential playoff system accept all qualified teams, regardless of their status as champions--or not--of a conference. This is obviously stupid, but did you expect anything else after the SEC West Title Game Redux to which we were all painfully subjected? I can see it now: a 4/8 team playoff, all SEC. I just shuddered, as you probably did.
The point is, this will happen slowly, like all things in life that involve bringing together people from all over the country to deliberate over a thing that nets certain people unbelievable amounts of cash, which, come to think of it, is just like our...yeah. I will say that a world in which Mike Slive is the primary focus of the ire of pro-playoff folks, as opposed to Jim Delany, is a much better world.
Here and There: The continually nonsensical parade of conference realignment has gotten to a level of insanity that makes the term "realignment" seem hilariously misapplied in light of everything. This senselessness has continued on for so long that I read about Temple re-joining the Big East in 2012--after having been kicked out unceremoniously and didn't even think twice about it. After all, this is a conference called the Big East, a conference which will eventually include teams like Boise State and San Diego State. Irrationality and bitter survival instinct reign supreme here.
Still, we are talking about TEMPLE, here. I know that they've gotten better and that the Big East is not exactly in a position to be choosy, but...my God. The Big East has essentially turned into a trip to Golden Corral/Old Country Buffet/insert other purely AMURICAN eateries; you put everything on your plate at the same time, or at least as much as you can fit on the first go around. Macaroni and cheese? Yeah! Mashed potatoes? Yup! Fried chicken, a vague pile of "salad," and a scoop of ice cream just to save time once the shame starts to hit and getting up again becomes not only a physical impossibility but a literal walk of shame? Oh boy! Then the gravy starts leaking into the salad and the ice cream melts onto the cheese and beets in your salad and the liquid from the soggy broccoli you heaped onto your plate reluctantly advances into the adjacent corn bread and OH GOD THIS HAS BEEN A HORRIBLE MISTAKE.
The only person that finds any of this expansion/realignment business to be rational or generally pleasing is of course Bill Cosby, noted Temple alum.*
The following is a pictorial representation of the process that is realignment:
Full of sound and fury, signifying nothing. Fin.
*Fun fact, but Bill Cosby is the only Temple alum you are aware of because he is the only Temple alum that actually exists. This is fact.
Michigan 71 (23-8, 13-5), Penn State 65 (12-19, 4-14)
Weeee are the co-champions, my friends. (AP/Ralph Wilson)
Michigan's first bucket of the day was a Tim Hardaway Jr. three, streaking through the air like a comet, a manifested harbinger. Seconds in, the outcome was determined. Close the book, turn out the lights.
Michigan put up a reasonable number of threes (18) and made ten of them; they were, as they say, en fuego. Penn State rallied back as teams often do--holding a 15+ lead is easier said than done--but they game was really never in doubt. When PSU brought it to within 6 after sneakily managing a 13-0 run, Zack "True Grit" Novak hit an off-balanced two to momentarily halt the advance. Later, with Michigan up only four in the final minute, THJ spun full circle, away from an imminent double team, dribbling past the free throw line extended. Rise and fire.
Hardaway Jr. shot the lights out for the second game in a row, Smotrycz demonstrated the confidence which at one point in the conference schedule began to assume a retrospective patina of unreality, and Burke was Burke. With the threes falling and Michigan dominating a conference opponent--leading by as much as 19--in spite of having a less-than-ideal roster to work with and an opponent rebounding 45% of its misses, you'd have to imagine that John Beilein was of the rare mental state that coaches find themselves in when everything's going well, when stress is just a remote foreign concept, like driving on the left side of the road, a place without collegiate athletics, and the nation of Djibouti. Tell him that Penn State beat us to the boards almost half of the time when we were on defense and he won't even hear you. He's too busy smiling.
Later that day, William Buford would go on to hit a nearly impossible shot. As much credit as we owe him for that, I find it hard to believe that this moment decidedly outside of our realm of agency is the ultimate validator of this team's season. Thank you, though. I switched away from the Blackhawks-Red Wings game just in time to catch Buford's final crushing yet saving salvo. In the split second that it took for me to go through the neurons started to fire out increasingly incomprehensible, nonsensical thoughts--Buford scores, OSU wins, split championship, WOOOOO, first since '86, WOOOOOO, MUPPETS, WOOOOOO--a tiny kernel preceded these events like the preface before the chapters of a book.
We are all a little bit Stu Douglass, mouths agape. Oh man. We're also a little bit of Zack Novak, with our shirts off in the back of the room, at the very edge, as if he were about balanced on the very edge of the world, his balance determined by the outcome of this game being played somewhere else. Michigan had won a Big Ten championship. Juxtapose the above scene with Dali's "Persistence of Memory" and I'd simply nod. Michigan basketball won something.
They are us and we are them. Everything is nothing and nothing is everything. Time is everything and everything is Time. The national championship in 1989, the day that sanctions fell, the Ellerbe hiring, the Amaker hiring, the Beilein hiring, Darius Morris leaving, Trey Burke changing his mind, this game...all part of the same moment. They're all the same thing in that they all lead to now, this time of ours.
I visited MGoBlue.com on Sunday night only to find championship shirts already available. My win is your win, capitalism. As I debated between the maize, blue, and gray options provided, I thought about that shirt, which I've mentioned here before many times. As I debated which color was best--and if I shouldn't just buy all three out of respect--I pictured that shirt, sitting in my closet, having been worn many times this year and many times since one of the cheerleaders threw it into the student section my freshman year in a game against Central Michigan, which we lost.
It is a context-less shirt, devoid of any meaning except that which the wearer brings to it. It is a dull yellow, not even pretending to be the more rambunctious highlighter yellow that has become maize over the years. The only text on the shirt reads, "2007 2008 Michigan basketball," with a large block M bisecting the two years. Other than that, the shirt was minimalistic and matter-of-fact, more a statement of time than a prideful association. It is 2007, and this happens to be Michigan basketball. Here's a shirt.
Yes, it was a cheap shirt used during a t-shirt toss, but the maker of the shirt unknowingly produced what would become a valuable relic. In this way, wearing it has become a sort of inside joke and as well as a reminder, a wearable admonition to remember that which preceded all of this.
Tim says "Nnanna-not today"...yeah, that's how good I feel
about this (AP/John Dixon)
In this day and age, when the stakes have never been higher, the payouts never bigger, the stages never larger, it would seem that empathy has gone the way of other collegiate dodos: the leather helmet, unironic invocation of the term "student-athlete," and the dynasty (i.e. the Wooden years). There's no time to feel sorry for anyone, because the moment you start doing that is the moment you start falling behind, and then roles spin like a top and reverse; people start feeling sorry for you, and ain't that just a shame.
There haven't been many instances in my time as a sports fan when I have watched one of my teams grind an opponent into fine powder only to feel a little bit sorry about the whole thing. I have never seen (well, through the TV) a gym sound so devoid of life as Assembly Hall seemed to be from the word go last night. By the end, I was feeling this thing they call empathy, as watching Illinois look so spectacularly confused on offense was like a compact 40-minute reminder of the Amaker era. Meyers Leonard deferred and played with a general lack of something that was obviously not up to the moment. Brandon Paul threw up impossible shot after shot, and I'm not sure whether Illinois fans should be shaking their heads or asking "well, what else is there?" Nobody else contributed anything of import, and all the while Bruce Weber gnashed his teeth and stomped his feet for a while before seemingly coming to grips with his Fate. It was a veritable funeral march; doubt lingers no longer in Champaign.
And so, in a way, this one was over before it had even begun. The Illini were as careless and generally purposeless in their half-court sets as they've been throughout the last month or so of play, each possessive a sort of atomic theater. Parts moving chaotically here and there with great uncertainty and with no discernible meaning. Scientists have partially cracked the subatomic code, but I'm not sure that the smartest man alive could explain the theory behind the Illini offense under coach Bruce Weber as it currently manifests itself.
With all of that said, this was a smashing victory for the Wolverines, one that a contender wins in precisely that way. Michigan held a 2-point lead--46-44--halfway through the second half. They had the chance to allow things to fall apart and allow a reeling Illinois team back into it. They did not. They went head body, according to plan*. The big guys fall hard, you know.
I'm not sure what it is about playing Illinois, but it has for whatever reason brought out the very best in THJ this season. He was just about as efficient as you can possibly be, and his shot was crisp, clean, and confident. Bacari Alexander will now be given the task of using whatever psychological tropes he can muster to convince THJ that they are playing Illinois before every game from here on out. John Gasaway says:
It's hard to disagree. This Michigan team has, by varying combinations of Trey Burke, Beilein sorcery, TRUE GRIT, and Bacari Alexander motivational ploys, manufactured a 22-8 record with THJ struggling for long, bleak stretches of conference play. Imagine, oh imagine, what this team can accomplish with a THJ circa the end of last season added to the fold. It might be a little much to expect him to shoot this well all the time, or as well as he did during Michigan's tourney push last season, but if he can maintain the nearly palpable aura of confidence that was on display last night, this team will be very, very difficult to beat. I hate to inject cold expectations into this wonderful paragraph of pure optimism, but if Michigan was a pretty solid Sweet 16 bet before, a wheelin' and dealin' THJ ups that by a round. Most importantly, it seemed that this was the first time THJ was having fun on the court.
As you all know, Michigan just needs to take care of business in Happy Valley and hope for a Buckeye win for a piece of the Big Ten title. Even if it doesn't happen, THJ's potential return to his former level of play is arguably more encouraging/important news.
In any case, as flat as the Illini were--and as seemingly incompetent as Bruce Weber has been--Michigan went in and won this with authority. Michigan simply needed to execute the offense, play solid defense and let the Illini give them free points via turnovers or possession of the ball after a pointless 30 second possession that results in a Brandon Paul brick from 25 feet out. The Illini were the very definition of the punch drunk fighter, waiting to be out out of their misery; after a series of surgical, pinpoint flurries--a body shot then to the head and back to the body--and the Illini were done, and Michigan was victorious, with a chance to play for a potential share of the championship belt on the docket.
*Yes, if you can't tell I recently watched The Fighter. **This asterisk doesn't track back to anything but I'm just going to put this here: Jalen's performance wasn't a masterpiece in sports commentary but it was fun. People often forget, but this is all supposed to be fun and generally enjoyable. Jalen dominated the mic a little too much at times, but given the fact that he was calling a Michigan game, that's to be somewhat expected. All in all, his off-the-cuff, effervescent delivery was refreshing, especially when juxtaposed with the stylings of one Jay "Sam the Eagle" Bilas.
Player Bullets, Also Known As "Just Like Daddy":
Burke--So, lost amidst the sea of THJ praise, Trey had himself a game. He was 7-13 from the field (2-3 from 3), with 5 assists to only 2 giveaways en route to a 21-point virtuoso effort. It's hard not to say this after almost every game, but he seriously looks like a senior out there. If he doesn't win Freshman of the Year then I don't even know what to say.
THJ--See all of the above, but to lay it out numerically for you: 25 points, 6-7 from the field (a perfect 4-4 from 3), 11 rebounds, 2 steals, and a block. Perhaps most encouragingly, he toed the FT line 10 times, making 9 of them.
Novak--Off day from the field (1-7 total, 0-2 from outside) but he did the gritty chores that he always does. He took a key charge and pitched in 4 assists and 5 boards (2 of those of the offensive variety), en route to a quiet but typically Novakian performance.
Douglass--Hit tone-setting threes to start each half but was off otherwise (2-9 overall, 2-7 from 3). Didn't need anything more than a couple threes, no turnovers, and solid D from the Swiss Army knife, and that's what Michigan got.
Morgan--Again, Michigan didn't need a huge performance here but Morgan definitely showed up big down low, making Leonard work for his points. Quite frankly, Leonard was very tentative and, dare I say it, soft throughout most of the game, and it's logical to think that JMo's classically hard-nosed D played a significant role. He had an efficient day from the field, going 3-4 with his only miss coming on a rare 10-12 foot jumper in the paint. He did sustain a shoulder injury of the stinger type as a result of a physical box out on Leonard; needless to say, if Morgan is really hurt then Michigan could be in trouble, whether THJ is shooting the lights out or not.
Smotrycz--Impressively fouled out in just 13 minutes of play...which is fine, as he was tasked with trying to defend Leonard, an enormous mismatch. Hit a three and also picked up a pair of boards and a pair of steals.
Vogrich--Was hoping he'd have himself another game playing back in his home state but went scoreless instead. Did notch a steal.
Christian--Got in there over McLimans for 5 minutes of play, enough time for him to score his first bucket since the Memphis game and also have a nice finish negated by a charge call. Also grabbed an offensive board and recorded a block in his short time. If Morgan is actually hurt enough to sit out the PSU game (just speculating, of course) due to precautionary thinking, we could get a good look at CC, which really couldn't hurt even if he doesn't play at all heading into the post-season tournaments.
General Outlook
The Wolverines took on the Illini in Crisler less than 3 weeks ago, a game that played out much like the one played on the gridiron this past fall. Michigan mostly outplayed the Illini in the first half and yet was only up by a somewhat unsatisfying 6-point margin. For a variety of reasons, Meyers Leonard was a complete non-factor after the opening minutes of the game, and Michigan went on to lead by as much as 14 in the second half before sealing up a comfortable 9-point win.
I've already had the chance to preview the Illini, and not much has changed since I last took a look at this sinking ship. So, this preview will probably be somewhat shorter.
"No, DO NOT give it to the 7'1''
guy WARGHBARGHLL!"
Since we last met, the Illini have continued their losing ways; they've gone 1-3 since the meeting in Ann Arbor. The Illini dropped a close home contest to the Boilers, but the next two losses pretty much representing the dousing with kerosene of Weber's chances to still be the head coach in Champaign next season. Illinois went to Lincoln and got destroyed, losing by 23 and at one point allowing the Huskers to go on a 43-7 run, something so catastrophic that it can't be called a "run" so much as a systematic, unimpeded bludgeoning. Yes, you read that correctly: 43-7. This is the same Nebraska team that often looks like a glorified high school team (no offense, Doc...you still have the raddest name of all the B1G coaches).
After that, the Illini went on to look completely outclassed against the Buckeyes on the road, the very same Buckeye team that they were able to pick off at home back right before the jukebox eternally set to play Yakety Sax began to follow the team everywhere. The good news is the Illini did pick up a home win against Iowa on Monday that ended that brutal 6-game losing streak. In further efforts to motivate his flailing team, Weber benched Leonard and Paul after a few "practices determines who starts" practices. It's safe to say that Paul and Leonard will be back in the starting lineup, as this ain't no time for motivational ploys. Weber claims otherwise, but I find it hard to believe that either will come off the bench. It's stand up or go home for the Illini, and they will be playing in accordance with this fact.
The Offense
In conference play, the Illini are 7th in ppg given up at 67.6 per. Needless to say, it has not been smooth sailing; Illinois's long depressing month of failure is filled with crooked numbers given up defensively (i.e. 70+). Thankfully for the Illini, they have a guy like Leonard to mitigate some of their defensive lapses, so one can only wonder how bad this defense might be if they didn't have an above average shot-blocker patrolling the paint.
MOAR
Additionally, Brandon Paul is a relatively active defender on the ball (1.5 spg), as is DJ Richardson to a lesser extent (0.9 spg). So, Michigan will have to be leery in the paint--since getting two fouls on Leonard relatively early in the game might be difficult to accomplish a second time, especially on the road--and the defensive pressure will there on the perimeter. It is senior night, and the Illini need to win this game to slowly push away that match that is currently behind held inches away from the kerosene soaked 2011-12 Illinois campaign. I haven't really kept up with the shifting nuances of the bubble, but if the Illini win out and win 2 games in the BTT, that puts them at 21 wins. I'm saying there's a chance, but I'm also decidedly not a member of the selection committee.
Michigan had very good success against the Illini at home; most notably, inconsistent x-factory types THJ and Smotrycz both pitched in double digit points (15 and 13, respectively). Hardaway attacked the basket, going 3/6 from 2 and making a pair of trips to the free throw line. Alas, Tim has decided that not giving turning real human beings into rageface comics is not his calling in life. Tim will need to replicate his effort the first time around if Michigan wants to escape with the victory, otherwise things could get very dicey, as they often do when you're attempting to get yourself a win on the road by gunning from long range.
The Defense
Outside of the disheartening performance last Saturday, Michigan has been incredibly stingy (which has to in some part be attributed to Greg Mattison's presence at games). The Wolverines are third in defensive ppg in conference play, spearheaded by some gritastic efforts from Jordan Morgan down low and the consistently solid to very good defense from Trey and Stu on the perimeter.
In Ann Arbor, the Illini showed why they had been having so much trouble on the offensive end despite having talents like Paul and Leonard on the roster. Illinois turned the ball over with alacrity, as they've done throughout most of conference play. The Illini are tied with Minnesota in turnovers per game (14.1), turning the ball over on 21.6% of their offensive possessions. That is awful. Even Brandon Paul, who managed to score 21 while mostly being defended by Stu, turned it over a whopping 7 times.
Conventional wisdom says that if you play solid defense the Illini will self-destruct like so:
Michigan held Leonard to a measly 5 points, which, to be honest, was a product of a puzzling lack of usage and a few attempts around the basket that he just flat out missed. Morgan played good, gritty defense, and I don't want to sell Michigan's team defense short. However, for Leonard to get only 5 attempts from the field in any given game, you'd have to think that Weber is perhaps not a very good basketball coach and entirely deserving of his imminent firing. I rarely go out of the way to call coaches out like that, but come on...five attempts? The only way a player like Leonard gets five attempts on a team like that--with only one other legitimate headliner of a scoring threat--is if the head coach doesn't, as he should, tell his team to "GET THE TALL GUY THE BALL, HE'S 7'1'' FERGODSAKES." Clearly, Weber does not do that (or he doesn't emphasize it...if the guards don't work to feed Leonard the ball, it is ultimately Weber's fault).
I think that it's probably safe to say that Tyler Griffey won't explode for another 18-point effort while Leonard likely won't get only 5 points. Home cooking alone will see him get to the line enough times to get him into the double digits; with a free throw rate of 45.6 in conference play, he gets to the line often.
Who/What To Watch
Michigan's 3-point attempts...yes, attempts, but not for the reason you may think. In the process of trying to assimilate advanced stats into my basketball worldview, I've learned that a team's ability to limit 3-point attempts is just as important as the percentage that opponents shoot, if not moreso...which does make sense. In this sense, the Illini are actually pretty good; only the Badgers are allowing less 3-point attempts than Illinois. Michigan averages 23 attempts per game in conference play, and they only put up 16 in the first meeting. Luckily for Michigan, they made 7 of those 16, but I'm not sure that expecting a similar percentage on the road is wise. Even if Michigan wants to throw up 30+ treys--like they have the last two games--I'm not sure that Illinois will even let that happen. This is a little disconcerting, as this means those frenzied chicken-with-its-head-cut-off possessions seem destined for shot clock violations and many other sorts of turnovers.
It's simple enough, but Leonard vs. fouls. If Michigan can coax him into a bad foul early--Vogrich's aggressive baseline drive to draw a foul on him comes to mind--then this is going to be another win; period, end of story, Guaransheed it.
Good THJ vs. Evil Handlebar Mustache-Wearing 3-Point Attempting THJ. Which one will it be? The rims get a little tighter and less forgiving on the road, so if he wants to be a factor he will need to attack early when it is there. Michigan hitting some early threes will go a long way toward opening up the middle of the floor for some of those horizontal "slice" cuts that he has made a living on (when he's decided to operate in 2-point land).
Meaningless Prediction
If not for an 18-point effort from Tyler Griffey off the bench, the Illini would've lost in embarrassing fashion in Ann Arbor. However, as mentioned, I find it hard to believe that Leonard will not get to double digit points this time via FT shooting alone. Weber and his players are in desperation mode, which can turn out to be either really good or really bad for an opponent.
Michigan's disappointing loss against Purdue was like the reopening of a scab covering the old wound known as toomanythreesitis. I know that we shoot threes because this is Ann Arbor and THIS IS WHAT WE DO, but shooting 30+ threes is not a tenable strategy in the short term or in tournament play. When you adjust for home court and a few players' points going way up (Leonard) or way down (Griffey), I think this one shakes out to a nail-biter. As bad as Illinois has been, a close win would be nothing to be ashamed of. For some reason, I'm feeling a Trey Burke shot to put Michigan ahead on Michigan's last possession after a 39+ minutes of back and forth generic Big Ten ball. Michigan 62, Illinois 60.
Hello, Internet. I am Fouad Egbaria, a Michigan grad ('11) and recent graduate of the MSJ program at Northwestern's Medill School of Journalism. This is a blog that attempts to analyze the highs and lows of Michigan football and basketball; I'm just trying to capture the spirit of the thing. I will also write about general Big Ten news, as well as Chicago professional sports (from time to time).
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