HTR's Top 25: Week 6

Previous dubious assertions: HTR's Official Meaningless Preseason Top 25, Week 1, Week 2, Week 3, Week 4, Week 5

With most of college football having exited the realm of Cupcake City, we were treated to our first weekend of mostly good football. This past Saturday was rife with upsets, derailed hype trains, and general shenanigans. 

"Stop it with the dumb penalties, fergodsakes!" 

(HT: Mike DeSimone)

Rank	Team
1	Alabama
2	Oregon
3	South Carolina
4	West Virginia
5	Florida
6	Notre Dame
7	Ohio State
8	Kansas State
9	LSU
10	Oregon State
11	USC
12	Florida State
13	Texas
14	Oklahoma
15	Georgia
16	Louisville
17	Stanford
18	Texas A&M
19	Rutgers
20	Cincinnati
21	Mississippi State
22	Iowa State
23	TCU
24	Michigan
25	Louisiana Tech

Out: Northwestern, Nebraska, UCLA, Washington, Texas Tech

• Northwestern...no longer undefeated. All of you that predicted an Alabama-Northwestern national title game, I'm sorry. The dream season is over. No completely unironic--no, really--Northwestern fight song linking this week. 

• This year in college football insanity: Oregon State, in the top 10. This is "expectations exceeded" personified. I'm not sure how Mike Riley has navigated this team to a 4-0 record a season after losing to Sacramento State, but he has and is clearly a graduate of the Bill Snyder School of Sorcery. On the not so bright side, Oregon State QB Sean Mannion is out indefinitely after sustaining a knee injury against the Washington State Pirates. Luckily, OSU has a manageable slate throughout the rest of this month (@BYU, Utah, @Washington, Arizona State). If Oregon State can somehow get through that stretch without a loss, Riley has to be the coach of the year, right? 

• Other dreams vanquished. Texas Tech finally fell this past weekend after surprising basically everyone by playing this thing called "defense" during its first four contests. Unfortunately, the Fightin' Tubervilles fell to the Sooners in Lubbock. The Red Raiders gave up 17 points in each of the second and third quarters. With that said, the TTU defense still did okay, giving up a relatively okay 4.2 YPC and under 400 yards of total offense. An Oklahoma pick 6 essentially ended the game midway through the 3rd quarter, taking the score to 38-13, putting it out of reach even for a pass-happy offense like TTU's. 

• Michigan: back! Not back as in "returning to glory" back, but hey, Michigan's schedule has been tough and a thumping on the road against what figures to be a bowl team of some sort is enough to vault the Wolverines back into the top 25 for now. It means literally nothing but hey, being ranked 24th feels much better than being a "receiving votes" team. 

• This week in my unrealistic and/or irrational preseason conjecturing. Virginia continues to plummet, making me look like a fool after spending the offseason hyping up Mike London. The Cavs lost at Duke, 42-17, putting them at 2-4 halfway through this 2012 season. Everything about that last sentence is really, really bad. 

• Speaking of ACC failings...the Seminoles Florida Stated it up this weekend, losing to an NC State team that got destroyed by Tennessee. Virginia Tech continues to slide, adding a loss to UNC to its resume. Boston College lost to Army, Miami didn't even put up any sort of fight against Notre Dame in Chicago, and Georgia Tech lost again (also dropping them to 2-4). To make matters worse, the Ramblin' Wreck also relieved defensive coordinator Al Groh of his duties on Monday. Times are not good in Atlanta these days, and I'm not even talking about the Braves. Oh, by the way, Duke is 5-1. DUKE IS 5-1. 

• West Virginia: legit. Okay, that defense is still very, uh, shaky, but a win in Austin is a win in Austin. It's fairly clear that, unlike Missouri, West Virginia will be perfectly fine in its new conference. 

HTR's Top 25: Week 5

Previous dubious assertions: HTR's Official Meaningless Preseason Top 25, Week 1, Week 2, Week 3, Week 4

Me during a bye week

Rank	Team
1	Alabama
2	Oregon
3	LSU
4	Florida State
5	Georgia
6	West Virginia
7	Texas
8	South Carolina
9	Notre Dame
10	Florida
11	Kansas State
12	Ohio State
13	USC
14	TCU
15	Oklahoma
16	Louisville
17	Stanford
18	Mississippi State
19	Northwestern
20	Texas Tecch
21	Oregon State
22	Rutgers
23	Nebraska
24	UCLA
25	Washington

Out: Michigan State, Boise State, Baylor
Idle: Michigan, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Kansas State, USC, Auburn, Mississippi State, probably some other teams that I'm forgetting about

• GO U NORTHWESTERN. Okay, I'll spare you this week since I wrote a full post on Northwestern this past Saturday (!). However, Northwestern is undefeated. As far as Michigan's relevance to this goes, the collapse of NU's defense in the second half against the hapless Hoosiers should make Michigan fans feel a little bit better about this game. 

• Texas Tech...plays defense? This is without a doubt one of the strangest happenings of the 2012 season. The Red Raiders are playing defense, well. Per Hinton, TTU leads the national in total defense and pass defense at this point in time. I don't even have anything witty to say about this. I'm honestly shocked that Tuberville was able to fashion some semblance of a defense in Lubbock, but apparently he has. Of course, the Big 12 will offer many opportunities for that defense to get shredded, particularly through the air. We'll see if this center can hold. 

• One more "why couldn't we do that?" data point. Ole Miss held the Tide to 125 yards rushing at 3.7 yards per carry. In addition to Alabama's modest output against Western Kentucky, you have to wonder how Michigan was not able to contain Alabama's running game even a little bit. True, Alabama has one less bullet in the chamber given Jalston Fowler's season-ending injury, but still: how were Ole Miss and WKU, of all teams, able to do so much better than Michigan did? This is truly one of life's greatest mysteries. 

• A brief note on WVU-Baylor. 2010 Michigan-Illinois, last season's Washington-Baylor bowl game, this WVU-Baylor game...all these games are stupid and should not be celebrated. Yes, I know that I'm being the stereotypical BIG TEN MAN that Shutdown Fullback satirizes, but that type of football just isn't appealing. Say what you will about the relative quality of Ohio State and Michigan State, but I was actually engaged in that game, unlike this glorified arena derby. 

• Speaking of little defense...Texas and Georgia, teams occupying the "not Alabama but still ridiculously good" rung on the defensive hierarchy, both proved to be somewhat vulnerable this past week against Oklahoma State and Tennessee, respectively. I have to think that this was an outlier for both teams, but especially for Texas, who take on Oklahoma State 2.0 this Saturday (i.e. West Virginia). We shall find out if: a) Texas's defense is as good as previously thought and b) whether WVU's ridiculous offense works on the road, away from the scent of gunpowder and the Morgantown fog. 

HTR's Top 25: Week 1

Previous dubious assertions: HTR's Official Meaningless Preseason Top 25

All I can say is, as completely not fun as Saturday was, I'm still completely pumped at the fact that it is college football season. So many games, so little time. I would rather be in this position right now than tracking things like WHIP, WAR, and OPS. As hilarious as Adam Dunn's stat line is, that can only carry me for so long before I need to watch football. Well, here we are.

Remember, it's early, so this is non-scientific, not to mention mostly useless. Only the Michigan teams and Clemson played anybody of worth, so take this with an enormous grain of salt. There are probably 15-20 teams that could qualify for the 15-25 range in the rankings, but most of that will get settled before the end of September. 

Rank	Team
1	Alabama
2	LSU
3	USC
4	Oregon
5	West Virginia
6	Florida State
7	Georgia
8	South Carolina
9	Michigan State
10	Oklahoma
11	Clemson
12	Texas
13	Virginia Tech
14	Wisconsin
15	Nebraska
16	Arkansas
17	Oklahoma State
18	TCU
19	Michigan
20	Ohio State
21	Stanford
22	Missouri
23	Florida
24	Utah
25	Louisville

Out: Boise State, Kansas State 
Idle: TCU (come on, guys...taking a break already?)

• The week of meh. Unless your team's name rhymes with "Schmalabama Flimson Hide", odds are your team looked mediocre, whether in victory or defeat. Wisconsin, Iowa, Florida, Arkansas, Texas (for a while), Oklahoma...these are teams that didn't exactly overwhelm in college football's opening weekend. Also, Michigan, but you know about that. It's still way too early to judge anybody in college football. 

• Virginia Tech-Georgia Tech: FREEEE FOOOTBALLLL. Last night's game was a bit of a snoozer for about 3.5 quarters before the fireworks near the end (no, I'm not talking about the actual fireworks that were shot off when VT kicked a field goal to tie as regulation time expired and another to win it in OT). I ranked this the top intra-divisional game for the Coastal, and it didn't disappoint. I just wish that it didn't have to basically end on a derpy Tevin Washington INT, but oh well. VT survives, and that's what counts. 

• The Big Ten is turrible. Nebraska thumped Southern Miss, Ohio State beat Miami (OH) with ease, and Michigan State gritted its way through a win against a revamped Boise State team. Other than that, the B1G had a pretty rough week. Minnesota took 3 overtimes to beat UNLV, Wisconsin and Iowa beat Northern Illinois and Northern Iowa by a combined six points, and Penn State fell against Ohio. On the bright side, Indiana, Illinois, and Purdue won, not to mention my soon-to-be-second-school Northwestern Wildcats, a tremendous victory that almost wasn't. KAIN COLTER FOR HEISMAN. Also on the bright side: Michigan is in the Big Ten. We play those teams. 

• Droll Tide. It's getting downright boring talking about how ridiculously good Alabama football is, but man...they're good. Good luck, SEC. Have fun with that. Alabama jumps up to #1 on my list, although LSU does look to be pretty formidable as well; LSU's tandem of defensive ends, Barkevious Mingo and Sam Montgomery, has to be the best in the country. 

• Tier 2. After the first tier of teams--'Bama, LSU, and USC--Oregon and West Virginia are definitely at the top of the second group. Against Arkansas State and Marshall, the Ducks and Mountaineers scored 59 and 69 points, respectively. However, each did give up quite a bit on defense as well (34 points each). More often that not, however, these teams will be able to outscore the competition; this is the antithesis of Saban-ball. 

• Clemson not Clemson-ing. "Clemson still hasn't lost" was a frequent refrain here last season, and it might be that way again. Clemson has beaten Auburn for a second time in a row (dating back to last season's victory at home). Auburn QB Kiehl Frazier put up a stat line almost identical to Denard's, which is not a good thing. Clemson was without Sammy Watkins, mind you, but DeAndre Hopkins picked up the slack (13 rec., 113 yards, 1 TD). Auburn ran the ball relatively well, but Frazier couldn't do much through the air other than one 54-yard TD strike in the first quarter. Auburn is most likely looking at another mediocre season this year. In a conference stocked with talented running backs, giving up 231 yards to Clemson's Andre Ellington does not bode well for Auburn's run D against SEC West foes like LSU (Blue and Hilliard), Alabama (Lacy, Fowler, Yeldon, and Hart), and Arkansas (Davis). Scott Loeffler, Auburn OC/former John Navarre whisperer, also has his work cut out for him in that he, like Michigan, is working with offensive personnel recruited for an offense that isn't his own. 

• Something to make you feel slightly worse than you already do. In the first game of the post-RGIII era in Waco, a Nick Florence-led Baylor team walloped SMU, 59-24. Florence threw four touchdown passes, his last one being a 37-yard strike to...Darryl Stonum. Stonum only had 6 receiving touchdowns during his time in Ann Arbor; with Florence slinging it all over the place in Art Briles's offense, I wouldn't be surprised to see Stonum double his career TD total this season. 

Big 12 Preview (Part 2): Intruder(s) In the Dust

Already blabbered about: SEC West, SEC East, ACC Coastal, Big 12 (Part 1) 


It's time to finish up the Big 12 by taking a look at Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech, TCU, and West Virginia. Yes, West Virginia in the Big 12 is still not something that I have completely assimilated into my college football worldview. 

Say, man, you got a bad defense? It'd be a lot cooler if you did. 

Prologue 
The 2011 season for the Oklahoma State Cowboys might have been its most exhilarating and disappointing season at the same time. As for the exhilarating part, the Cowboys went 12-1, winning a Big 12 championship along the way for the first time since the league formed in 1996. Excluding the 2010 season, it was their first double-digit win total since 1988. It was a wildly successful season built on the back of a juggernaut of an offense that didn't miss a beat at all even with OC Dana Holgorsen's departure for Morgantown. New OC Todd Monken called the plays for an offense that finished 3rd in total offense (behind only Houston and Baylor) and second in scoring offense (behind only Houston). Led by AARP member Brandon Weeden (GET IT BECAUSE HE WAS 28 AND THAT'S OLD FOR A COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYER), receiver Justin Blackmon, and tailback Joseph Randle, the offense essentially was an athletic refurbishing of Russia's "scorched earth" policy. Only, instead of scorching its own earth, they, you know, incinerated Big 12 defenses instead. 

As for the disappointing part, I think you know what I mean. Their one loss on the road against Iowa State, combined with an SEC favoritism built on the back of the previous five seasons, led to the Cowboys getting passed up by Alabama for the second national title berth. It's difficult to argue that Alabama did not have the look and feel of a national title team, but the strange, labyrinthine non-logic of college football would seem to do away with the notion that a "best" team could ever truly be decided. By that I of course mean that maybe the Cowboys would not have fared better against LSU than Alabama did, but I see no reason why they should have been denied the chance. 

In lieu of criticism of Oklahoma State's defense--and by extension Big 12 defense as a whole--mostly finding its source in Dixie, the most under-the-radar stat of the 2011 season was the fact that OSU ended the season with the #1 turnover margin. I don't remember people offering undue criticism to Auburn in 2010 for having a less than stellar defense, so I still don't understand why OSU was hammered for not putting up the same defensive stats that teams like LSU and Alabama did. Regardless, it was a wildly successful season for Mike Gundy, one that will be remembered for many years to come in Stillwater. 

The Texas teams presented a bit of a mixed bag. Mack Brown's Longhorns bounced back after a horrible 5-7 season in 2010 to go 8-5 last season. However, it was still a disappointing season for Texas in a number of ways. Despite having a ferocious defense and a pair of very good tailbacks in Malcolm Brown and Joe Bergeron, the Longorns's quarterback play let them down. Its been two seasons since Colt McCoy left for the NFL, and Mack Brown is still looking for a capable signal caller. After the collapse of the Garett Gilbert experiment in 2010 (and his ensuing transfer), the position shifted its focus to two youngsters in Case McCoy and David Ash. Ash put up better numbers across the boards but didn't exactly separate himself from McCoy in the race to secure the position. 

Despite the much-maligned Greg Davis's resignation in 2010, the 2011 offense wasn't much better, co-coordinated by former UT QB Major Applewhite and Bryan Harsin. The Longhorns finished 55th in scoring, 54th in total offense, and 89th in passing efficiency. With most of 2011's staunch defense and Bergeron and Brown both returning, its fairly clear that one of these two quarterbacks will need to seize the position and provide at minimum reliable play if this team is going to approach its former formidability. 

Texas Tech, on the other hand, was quite the opposite in almost every way. Quarterback Seth Doege put up monster numbers all season, most notably against Oklahoma in what was the Sooners' home loss since 2005. Unfortunately, the defense was still the sieve that you would imagine it to be. The Red Raiders finished 144th in total defense and near the very bottom in scoring defense (117th). No matter how potent your offense is--a notion that is still kind of amusing when attached to a head coach of Tommy Tuberville's decidedly conservative offensive reputation--you are not going to win very many games. And, in 2011, they didn't. After the Oklahoma upset took them to 5-2, TTU lost out, finishing 5-7, their first sub-.500 season since 1992. 

Next, we have the newcomers from Fort Worth. TCU started the season with a disheartening loss at Baylor that officially set RGIII mania into motion and also forced people to ask questions about what used to be an indomitable defense. Fortunately, on the back of QB Casey Pachall, the Horned Frogs finished what was otherwise a strong season. After a slip up in OT against SMU, TCU won out, including wins against Boise State and a bowl win against a sneakily solid Louisian Tech team. It is probably a testament to Gary Patterson's coaching acumen that an 11-2 (7-0) season could even be slightly painted with the brush of disappointment. With that said, while TCU was not exactly terrible on defense last season (as mentioned yesterday, most of the important metrics put them right on the fringe of the top third in the country), they will need to return to their defensively elite ways if they want to hope to keep the offenses in their new conference in check. 

Lastly, we have West Virginia, coming to the conference fresh of a national humiliation of Clemson during bowl season. Despite a puzzling 26-point loss at Syracuse in October and another loss at home against an improving but not exactly fearsome Louisville team, WVU proved themselves to be a team worthy of serious recognition by season's end. Additionally, despite losing by 26 to LSU at home, it was arguably one of the "closest" 26-point losses that I've ever seen (as I mentioned yesterday). The fact that Oklahoma State ran basically the same offense last season that they did when Holgorsen was in town lends some credence to the fact that the Cowboys would have had more success against LSU then SEC partisans would have led you to believe. 

In short, while the Big 12 still does not have enough teams for a conference championship game, this will yet again be the most exciting conference in America for the offensively inclined. It can be argued that the TCU and WVU additions were just as strong as the SEC's chosen pair of newcomers, but that will be proven or disproven in the years to come.