A Not Unexpected Occurrence

College football is an ecosystem unto itself; it expands and expands until it cannot anymore, often doing so at irregular and asymmetrical intervals--on the surface, at least--and seemingly without rhyme or reason or any sort of guiding hand. Teams try their hand and fail. Others, over time, improve their fitness and survive, live on, and prosper until someone else surpasses them or a catastrophe occurs (tough hand, dinosaurs). Then, conditions change once again, and the evolutionary adaptations that were once existential kevlar vests become useless. If Darwin were alive today and enjoyed watching sports, I have no doubt that he would find the most thematic overlap between his subject matter and sport within the realm of college football. 

Charles Darwin, the first college football fan

This is all to say that the next big thing is coming, and by that I mean the somewhat dread notion of the "superconference." As the realignment craze began with Nebraska's defection and carried onward throughout the last two years, the concept of superconferences was always there, lingering in the background like an unpleasant memory or the realization that it's Sunday and you should probably do some laundry, man. The whole thing seemed tacky, the college football equivalent of replacing every 5-star restaurant in America with a bloated monstrosity Golden Corral. It seemed inevitable, but inevitability does not have to precede acceptance. 


While this has always been something that you don't need to be Nostradamus to have presaged, it seems that the media is slowly starting to hint at college football's eventual transition into the superconference age. Tom Fornelli of CBS asks the question outright: "Is college football moving toward four superconferences?" Therein, he links to a piece from the Dallas Morning News, in which a source from the Big 12 said the following (on the heels of the recently inked Big 12-SEC agreement): 

I really can't believe I'm saying this," one Big 12 school source said. "We might be moving to four superconferences -- and the Big 12 would be one of those.

Its sort of amusing to see everyone involved in this little game of chess feigning disbelief at this potential outcome, but the fact that people--like this Big 12 source--are being explicit about this says that this is almost definitely going to happen. I would imagine that this is only the beginning of the media talking about superconferences authoritatively rather than in pointlessly secretive, hushed tones. Come on, College Football, we all hear you whispering bad things about Eastern Michigan in the corner. You clearly don't embrace the process. 


The aforementioned source of course goes out of his way to mention that yes, the Big 12 will be one of these superconferences. Naturally, someone's going to be left out. In the interest of brevity, the ACC and the Big East are likely going to be tossed to the dustbin of history, having failed to, by way of evolution, develop the correctly shaded plumage or the most fearsome set of teeth. 

The ACC and the Big East; going the way of the dodo

Florida State has handled its potential move poorly, to be sure, but I can't imagine that they don't end up in the Big 12: 1) because they're FSU, and the Big 12 will want them and b) the 'Noles are fighting for survival here. This isn't about whether or not they can afford to leave the ACC, or if it is advantageous in the here and now; if they don't bounce, they're done. By the way, this makes the Big 12's survival even more evolutionarily impressive. Catalyzed by unadulterated survivalist instinct, the Big 12 conference has lifted itself from its nearly made bed of extinction; Darwin nods in approval. 

Similarly, schools like Clemson and Georgia Tech could very easily find homes in the SEC (thus bringing that league to 16). Paul Myerberg of Pre-Snap Read does a little thought experiment regarding this hypothetical domino effect. This all seems less and less hypothetical by the day: 

Here’s another fear: This new partnership is just the first domino to fall. The chasm between the four new leaders – Pac-12, Big 12, Big Ten and SEC – and the rest of the F.B.S. provides another impetus for Florida State and Boise State to bolt to the Big 12. The SEC moves to 16 teams, taking Clemson and Louisville; suspend your disbelief in this scenario.

The Pac-12 moves to 16 teams. The Big Ten adds Notre Dame Rutgers and others to get to 16 teams. The SEC is at 16. The Big 12 gets to 16 teams. These 64 teams become college football. The remaining 60 teams are filler, fluff. They become the new F.C.S. – the new have-nots, minus the playoff.

To continue the Shakespearean bent of that post: therein lies the rub. Although haves and have-nots obviously clearly exist right now, it has become increasingly difficult to realize and reconcile with the fact that schools like UT-San Antonio, UMass, Georgia State, and many others, are joining the FBS ranks. In lay economic terms, this is like falling in love with plastic money. In ecological terms, this is blatant overpopulation. In middle school science class terms: within the diverse ecological community that is college football, there is currently a glut of snowshoe hares compared with not too many lynxes. Can you guess what happens next? 


The problem with all of this is that while I find the superconferences strange and probably even distasteful and/or deleterious to the game of college football, I have also complained about the multitude of FBS teams and FBS teams-to-be that simply have no business competing at that level as things currently stand. I know that it's a convenient statement to make for me, a Michigan fan, but that's just the way it is. I fear that the age of the superconference could both not make the conundrum that is crowning a champion any easier or more equitable while simultaneously continuing to NFL-ize and dilute the sport that we love. In short, superconferences sound like an economically and/or evolutionarily sound idea on paper, but I worry that it might end up representing the worst of both worlds. 


Maybe teams would play more conference games in the Superconference Era, and maybe the cupcake games against the have-nots would consequently get phased out as these teams will have essentially become meaningless non-participants occupying lower rungs of the food chain. Still, think of all the things that will be lost. College football is far from perfect, but it will be losing a lot of heart and sensibility if this is the evolutionary path the game is pursuing on a macroscopic level. Casualties are expected--this is evolution, after all--but these new conferences, more ponderous associations or federations then "conferences," will be based upon administrative, not regional or cultural lines. There are, of course, many instances of this specific brand of folly littered through the course of history like so many glaring lights in the distance gone unheeded. 

Miscellaneous Minutiae, 5/18/2012

UTL Part II? With Michigan joining the rest of the college football world last season by playing under the lights--I love how this is a phrase that we use, as if this is some outrageous concept--it has been the general understanding that Michigan will play more night games in the Big House in the coming years.  Next year does not provide the best home slate possible...outside of the Michigan State game, of course. As you can imagine, there may or may not be some trepidation in the athletic department regarding playing the Spartans at night that have to do primarily with off-the-field concerns...whatever, I don't really care much about that. However, I will say that this is some admirable Machiavellian trolling on the part of Mark Hollis. 

Really, this is a win-win for him and MSU. If this ends up being a night game, MSU gets primetime exposure, a boon for any program. If DB shuffles his feet and says no or fails to adequately sway the networks--if that is something that he can even do in the first place--it will then look like Michigan is, gasp, scared to play MSU at night. Of course, the fact that Hollis himself notes that the athletic directors don't exactly have final say (or much of one at all) in these matters would ordinarily represent an instance of cognitive dissonance; since this is college football, and since this is Michigan-Michigan State we're talking about, this is simply a fine case of Grade A trolling (which, in general, can be annoying but is good and potentially integral to the college football experience). 

Alabama and West Virginia fans. In the same place, at the same time. This is yesterday's news, but yes, the Tide and Mountaineers have agreed to open the 2014 season--i.e. Shane Morris's second Heisman campaign--in Atlanta. Obviously, that game is a long way's away, but if both coaches are still there then that should quite the barnburner.

Nick Saban's tightly-wound, cybernetic "persona" pitted against his home state school, led by the Red Bull-guzzling Skulletor? Narratives!

Things I actually agree with Big Ten brass about. So after I basically called everyone in the Big Ten stupid the other day, I have to say that I agree with this. As irritating as the B1G's capitulation was, it wasn't a battle we were likely to win; if doing that expedites the process in other aspects of the process, then that's a good thing. Maybe this is just me trying to rationalize the decision away into a billion little pieces, but, again, we are not in the meeting room with Delany et al. I still don't feel confident that the folks in charge will come away from the table with anything other than reactionary "victories", but we are only a chapter or two into this book.

Unfortunately for us, the fans, this uncertainty regarding strength of schedule's future importance (or unimportance), will likely mean a fairly brutal non-conference schedule in the near future:

As for now, Brandon said he's "dragging his feet" with future scheduling until he knows how important strength of schedule will be in the future postseason formula, and the Pac-12 partnership is sorted out.

Brandon:

"I fear we could get into a world where we’re all scheduling down to make sure our records are where they need to be," Brandon said. "We’ve seen this in basketball, where the regular season has become diminished because this tournament has become bigger than the regular season." 

Now, I'm not one of those guys that criticizes Brandon for the sake of criticism, but...don't we live in that world already, right now? Haven't we lived in that world for quite some time? As I write this, Florida's Jeremy Foley just scheduled another in-state non-conference minnow and Michigan is looking to hemorrhage some cash in the general direction of some far-flung bottom tier FBS school (or even FCS). Good news for the season ticket holders: there will be games! Bad news: they won't be entertaining games, for the most part.

In any case, anything to mitigate SEC bias in the polls and to coerce schools into playing somebody worth anything in the non-conference.

Speaking of DB and scheduling. Here's another example of the tried and true "is the ND-Michigan series going to end?" rumor mill, from SI:

"What I personally know at this point is that we're going to play for the next three years," Brandon said. "I don't have any control over what Notre Dame may be thinking moving forward beyond that. And the world is changing pretty rapidly."

Personally, as an out-of-stater, the ND rivalry is second only to Ohio State in importance and general vitriol. Beating ND in the manner that Michigan has the last three years has been simply incredible. I don't want to lose that, but, at the same time, I've always wanted Michigan to venture out into the world and play some new teams. That doesn't mean that we have to end the rivalry in any indefinite way, just that it would be nice to throw a change-up now and then to mix things up. Blimpy Burger is good, but not for every meal of every day; variation is key, folks (also, exercise).

In an ideal world without previously signed contracts to which schools have to adhere, I'd go on a 2-1 basis, meaning Michigan would play Notre Dame at home in Year X, away inYear Y, and then take a break from the series to play somebody else (Georgia, Tennessee, Clemson, Oregon, Oklahoma, etc.) in Year Z.

More? The Big Ten favors a selection committee for the future playoff; Andy Staples concurs. Michigan's basketball recruiting success getting some respect from the national media, via UMHoops. Haven't actually listened to this yet, but here's a podcast from al.com discussing the upcoming season opener between Michigan and Alabama.

This Week In Generic Playoff Concerns: On the Road Again

As you probably know by now, Jim Delany and the Big Ten have given up on the continued negotiation for semifinal games on campus sites. For those hoping to see teams like LSU, Alabama, and Georgia come up to Ann Arbor, Madison, or Columbus for one of these hypothetical semifinal matchups, you're going to have to wait a while. Unfortunately, your waiting might not be too different from the sort of waiting in Waiting for Godot. Indefinite, pointless, and tragicomic.

First of all, just to clarify my own position (not that it is all that different from most people's):

• With all due respect to the Rose Bowl, it should not be a driving factor in any playoff negotiations. What was once a nexus of pride and tradition has deteriorated and is an outright albatross on the neck of the conference. There, I said it. You were thinking it too. 

• I'm in favor of a 4-team playoff, conference champions only, with the only other deciding clause being that a team must be in the top X (anywhere from 6-10 is fine to me, however arbitrary that may seem). Otherwise, a non-champion can take a spot left vacant due to a conference champion not fulfilling the aforementioned parameters. 

• No pre-season polls. It's kind of absurd that they exist in the first place, but I guess college football needs a way to drum up interest for non-conference games with shiny rankings.  

• Strength of schedule needs to be emphasized in whatever the new rankings formula becomes. Force teams to eliminate as many minnows from their schedules as possible. Is that fair to the minnows? No, but, then again, I don't think teams like UT-San Antonio, Georgia State, and even current FBS schools like Eastern Michigan, should be in the FBS. In fact, I don't even think many of these types of schools should be fielding football teams, period, but I'm not exactly about to tell the a bunch of Texans that they shouldn't have a football team. That would go over well, I'm sure. 

• While a certain groups of fans will always point to players' preferences for things*--alternate jerseys, music, etc.--as reasons why we shouldn't listen to them (that is, the players), in this case I think the players are in the right, not the coaches and ADs. I guarantee you that if given the choice, every single player on Michigan's roster would rather play for a national championship than the Rose Bowl. The Rose Bowl, not unlike Notre Dame football, hasn't been truly relevant on a national scale in some time. The fact that Mark Hollis says otherwise regarding the players' wants increases my confidence in the notion that the players want to play for national titles and not Rose Bowls: 

"From kids' perspective, the bowl experience is the one thing they want to keep," he said. "Semifinals at bowl sites provide that, it's where fans can gather. With campus sites, it becomes (more) like a regular-season game." 

Yes, because everybody wants more, not less, bowl-type experiences in a given season. This seems counter-intuitive given that the B1G is also thinking about upping the bowl qualifying record to 7-5. The Big Ten wants to expand and downsize the bowl culture simultaneously; this leads me to believe, among a long list of other reasons, that the conference has no idea what it is doing.

*For the record, I don't care too much about the crazy jerseys and stadium music too much. I mean, they might be bad and sometimes a little excessive, but they don't leave an indelibly negative mark on my personal experience as a fan. Also, for the most part, if anybody is going to have a say about these things, I think it should be the players and not Michigan fans on the Internet. That isn't a slight against the fans, but...I think the players have more than earned the right to some creative control with these things. If that means hearing a non-zero amount of Pop Evil and wearing a bumblebee jersey every once in a while, so be it.

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Of course, none of us are in the room for these negotiations. As Rittenberg notes, maybe this is a way to concede one point while gaining ground on the "conference champions only" front re: the playoff structure. Then again, what happens if the SEC (and other conferences in its axis of influence, which, at this point, might honestly be everyone that isn't the B1G) manages to use its influence to eliminate the aforementioned clause from ongoing discussions? The Big Ten doesn't seem to have very many friends right now, and the SEC has all the leverage. Winning has a way of doing that, and by winning I mean, of course, national championships. No matter what anybody says, national titles are the ultimate prize in this era of college football. 

By definition, a negotiation means that multiple sides will supposedly be conceding various things in order to achieve a general common goal (in this case, a playoff). However, from where I stand, these discussions look more like this duel scene from The Good, The Bad, and the Ugly: 

If it needs explication, the Big Ten is Angel Eyes. That is not a good thing. 

So much of this either doesn't make sense or is plainly wrong. Again, in bullet form: 

• Hollis's point that the players value the bowls more than playing for a national championship. This is the height of tragicomedy, as the players can first and foremost look to the parasitic bowls as a primary source to which college football revenue is nonsensically funneled, revenue that is based solely on their back-breaking efforts. Pair this with the fact that those that "run" the bowls seem to do very little in the way of actual work, and you would be justified, as a player, to be fairly antagonistic to the bowl system. The players "love" the bowls because it is the only thing there is, they get to travel somewhere (even if it's somewhere as bland as, say, Orlando), and they get a few neat things in their bowl gift package. 

• Gene Smith: "Let's say Ohio State is hosting and it's January or December, and it's five degrees. Is that right for the game? We're not pro. We need to figure out what's best for the game, and I think a fast surface, good weather is important for the game. It's important for the game." 
  
• He supported semifinal games on home sites before; what changed? This goes for everyone else in the conference, not just Smith. 
• Anytime an AD or anyone involved in this process talks about what's good for the kids, I tune out. "The kids" are the furthest thing from anyone's mind who has a say. 
• I'm not sure why football played in cold weather conditions is okay for the highest level of football but not the collegiate game. That makes sense. Apparently, football players only become men upon entering the NATIONAL. FOOTBALL. LEAGUE. 

Jon Gruden, former HC in the NATIONAL. FOOTBALL. LEAGUE. endures the brutal cold of Tampa Bay like only a true professional can

• The fact that Delany just does not understand what is going on at all. He thinks that NYC is a relevant college football foothold. Then again, given that Rutgers was at one point at least vaguely a target of Big Ten expansion, this isn't exactly unexpected. In light of the dilution of the bowl system that many in the B1G are fearing, yes...signing on with the Pinstripe Bowl is definitely what we should do. 

• The fact that Tom Osborne and Harvey Perlman--with Nebraska having only having one Big Ten season to its name--feel the need to be beholden to the Rose Bowl (and the bowl system at large) proves that this is all: a) mindless groupthink and b) symptomatic of the dedication to preserving monetary lifelines via the bowl system as opposed to doing what is right for the game, the conference, individual schools, and yes, the players. So, yes, when various B1G personalities talk about the Rose Bowl, they are irrationally deifying it, assuaging their fears and their pangs of guilt at even thinking of abandoning it by mindlessly paying tribute; at this point, is the Rose Bowl even worthy of demigod status? 

• Just so it doesn't look like I'm solely bashing other ADs, even our very own Dave Brandon has been notoriously anti-playoff, and although I can't find a direct quote, the above article on the Pinstripe Bowl notes that Brandon thinks that "playing at northern sites within the Big Ten would be unfair to the competition." The administrative idiocy regarding a playoff--and its prominent details--is spread fairly uniformly across the conference. 

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This week has not increased my confidence in the Big Ten brass's ability to not completely ruin our chances of having nice things. Abandoning the semifinal home site cause before any trenches have even been dug is akin to Russia executing its "scorched earth" policy before Napoleon had even begun his campaign eastward (yes, I just compared the SEC to early 19th century France...if that's not trollin' then I don't know what is). 

I'm getting the feeling that once the dust settles, the Big Ten is going to be a major loser in all of this, and it will largely be a product of two factors: 1) the incompetence of the conference's administration and 2) a complete lack of leverage vis-a-vis the SEC (and even the Pac 12).  I hope this resolves itself positively, but early returns have not been encouraging. 

Miscellaneous Minutiae, 5/11/2012

If you couldn't tell, I've been a little lazy with the original content of late...I'm hoping to start the Alabama defensive previews next week, and maybe put up a few other things that I've been thinking about. Until then...onward to the college football topics of the day. 


Firstly, if you want to know more things than you currently know about Indiana football, head to Maize n Brew, where it is currently Indiana preview week. 


We hardly knew ye. Chris Rock has decided to leave the program, inspiring Internet commenters across the Michiverse to quote their favorite Chris Rock lines, or, taking it a step further and cutting out the middle man, noting that Chris Rock, Michigan football player, shares his name with a famous comedian and oh the LOLs that have been had because of this simple coincidence.

It's difficult to say whether or not he would have gotten meaningful time in 2012 (probably not). Regardless, Michigan isn't exactly overflowing with depth on the defensive line. In any case, I've always thought it a little tasteless to discuss the scholarship implications of such departures, so I will simply wish him good luck in his future endeavors.

Nick Saban, the anti-Stone Cold Steve Austin. Presumably in response to Jim Delany's comments about his disapproval of teams participating in a future playoff after having not won their conference, the glorious spiritual manifestation of the Yellowhammer State's essence, Nick Saban, fired back. In classic Delany fashion, the B1G AD voiced his opinion about the aforementioned scenario with a less than subtle nod at this past season's Alabama team:

I dont' have a lot of regard for them. 

Oh Jim, never change. Saban, in his classically eloquent fashion, responded to the above scenario, one which would have course locked out the 2011 Alabama from participating in said playoff:

Hell no. 

Well, that settles that! Thank you, Nick. To quote this nation's leading German basketballer: SHUT IT DOWN LET'S GO HOME.

Nick considers your suggestion with disdain. After running several complex processes through his cybernetic hard drive, he decides that your playoff scenario is not a part of The Process, thereby prompting him to run hellno.exe 

In any case, I'm with a "conference champions only" with a ranking requirement--i.e. top 6-10/whatever can be agreed upon--type scenario becoming the law of post-season college football.

As for Nick and the SEC, it would seem that they wish to parlay the pro-SEC sentiment of this time into what would potentially be an all SEC playoff bracket. I mean, people are trying to argue that Arkansas was the #3 team in the nation last year...sorry, but no. It seems like we're getting closer and closer to opening a significant fissure in the landscape of college football, igniting a grand, divisive conflict between the football entities of the various regions, namely the North and the South and HEY WHAT A MINUTE IS THIS A SEQUEL?

Under the Saban/SEC plan, we'd have the pleasure of looking forward to ceaseless S-E-C chanting and "BUT THEY'RE SO GOOD 'CAUSE THEY BEAT EACH OTHER UP PAWWWLLLL." Also, LSU-Alabama in the title game for the rest of time would get mighty boring. There's really no way that a playoff can happen without conference champions figuring into the equation in some way; otherwise, would things be any better or different than they are now? Alabama could hypothetically not win their division conference and still participate in Saban's "polls only" playoff model, meaning that it would literally be no different at all. That is a problem, because that would make all of this a lot of sound and fury, signifying nothing.

In other SEC news--Mark Richt is ready for you, nerds. After talking about a not so nice SEC head coach, I will add to my list of "reasons why Mark Richt is the coolest dude in the SEC." Last year's post-game exchange between Vandy HC James Franklin and UGA DC Todd Grantham predictably and somewhat hilariously created some bad vibes that have lingered on into the bleak desert time-space that is the offseason. This is amazing, because it's Vanderbilt, and the Revenge of the Nerds jokes really tell themselves.

Quoth Richt:

"I don't think we'll have much trouble getting jacked up to play the Vanderbilt Commodores this year" Richt said. "I'll tell you that."

That's right folks. Mark Richt is trash talking Vanderbilt football: achievement unlocked! In any case, more "piss and vinegar" in college football is a good thing, especially when Vanderbilt is involved. The fact that anybody, let alone Mark Richt, is paying attention to Vanderbilt football in May is a testament to James Franklin's work thus far in Nashville. Well done, Coach. It's too bad you never had the chance to challenge Ed Orgeron during the post-game handshake/fisticuffs session of that most heated in-state blood feud also known as UT-Vandy.

There are no wide receivers left. In "the offseason is a horrible time in which only bad things can happen" news, Bob Stoops has suspended four players indefinitely, three of whom are wide receivers. With Ryan Broyles departing to study in the Megatron School of Wide Receiving, this development leaves the Sooners with Kenny Stills as the sole returning player to have caught a pass last year. I don't need to tell you that this is not good, particularly for a spread-to-pass offense like Oklahoma's.

With Brent Venables's departure and Josh Heupel still being young and inexperienced as an offensive play-caller, you have to wonder about what OU will look like in 2012, especially early on in the season. The defense was absolutely shelled in losses against Texas Tech, Baylor, and Oklahoma State, and a coordinator change doesn't necessarily help in that regard (although Mike Stoops being that replacement probably mitigates the standard concerns). On the plus side, OU does return its top three rushers in Dominique Whaley, Roy Finch, and former Michigan target Brennan Clay. Whaley amassed 627 yards on 5.5 ypc last season before leaving the Kansas State game in Manhattan after sustaining a pretty gruesome injury on the first play.

In addition, OU of course returns backup QB/Tebow-back Blake Bell, who scored 13 rushing touchdowns last year as the freshman Tebow to Landry Jones's Chris Leak. In short: the 2012 OU offense might not look much like the offenses we've been seeing for the last 10+ years, which might be a good thing for Landry Jones, who had a pretty tough end to the 2011 season. With 7 returning defensive starters and a very good group of tailbacks+Bell, it seems that the Sooners might be, dare I say it...playing some "manball" in 2012?

This just in: David Molk still wants you to shut up and leave him alone. Our very own Rimington winner/warrior poet/gruff-master on the transition to the NFL and life in San Diego:

"Not going to buy a house, especially in this housing market," he said. "I don’t need any more room than I have now. I don’t need a big townhouse. Just give me a little crappy apartment and a TV and a nice chair, and I won’t know the difference."

Seriously, he just wants you to leave him alone so he can eat his grilled nails sandwich before he reach blocks your unsuspecting self off of his lawn.

More? Braves and Birds on Buzz Bissinger and the BAN FOOTBAW movement. The Key Play at EDSBS reveals what ACC schools will use their newly attained ESPN cash money on; worth clicking through for the Maryland gif alone.